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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Because people have forgotten how good he was in his rookie season. it may well be that teams have a book on him and that he won't be able to adjust his approach to overcome it, but this is the perfect time to make that call once and for all. There's nothing more to learn about him in AAA, he's healthy, and might be capable of playing a position that has been a revolving door since Mauer retired. He's only had 17 starts and 62 PAs since coming back up: let him play the rest of the season and see if there's anything there, and if not we can move on knowing we gave him a legit chance. It's the same thing with Gasper. Give them enough run and regular time to make an informed call. Has Gasper been bad at the plate so far? Sure. But he's got a career total of 105 PAs, which is meaningless and the fact that they've come in 48 games shows he's never gotten any real run. Dude crushes AAA (for longer and as well as if not better than both Fedko and Sabato) and we'll learn nothing about him there. Give him enough run the rest of the season to see if he can be a backup catcher and hit enough in MLB to be useful. And if he plays all Sept and stinks? Call him a Quad-A guy and move along in the offseason and open up the 40-man for prospects. It's fairly likely that neither change anyone's mind, but I'd much rather guys like Fedko or Sabato or GG or Walker Jenkins get a chance in 2026 when hope springs eternal than for them to get picked apart by an angry and reactionary fanbase over 3 meaningless weeks in Sept. And I'd rather settle the case once and for all on guys like Gasper, Outman, Julien, and even Larnach.
  2. jmlease1
    Because Sabato hasn't been that good since coming up to AAA? The recent explosion is great, and what we want to see from him, but the .305 OBP is not good enough at all. He's shown a significant dip in production since moving up to AAA including a decent slump. AAA is the right place for him to be showing whether or not he's earned another promotion. They're not going to cut Clemens (even though they should move on from him in the offseason) and they should be seeing whether or not Julien has a chance to be at 1B and give him enough games now (when it doesn't matter) to determine his fate. Fedko has been great since getting called up to AAA, but it's been only 26 games and this is the first time in his career he hasn't struggled upon promotion. It's not crazy to think that he's better off getting regular PT through the end of the season and proving that he belongs while the team is making decisions on guys like Outman and Larnach in the OF for next season. Sure, you could have promoted him instead of Keirsey, but a cup of coffee for Fedko in MLB in September won't tell us much. What's the point in adding either of those guys to the 40-man so you can add them to the (now) 28-man for 3+ weeks?
  3. jmlease1
    Sands is a legit MLB arm. And he did the job last night. They just don't have anywhere near enough other options. But this is what happens when you trade away your top 5 bullpen arms and don't bring back anyone who is ready for high-leverage roles in the bullpen (and frankly they didn't really bring back any immediate relievers). I don't really blame Rocco for the loss last night; they sent Coulombe out, so he's stuck with Funderburk in that role and with the season lost you have to see whether or not he might be an option. He suggests he's not going to make it. Topa was probably the best remaining choice, and he should be pitching middle relief not closing games, but he's at least been a MLB arm. They had a 2-run lead and couldn't hold it, entirely because they traded away Duran, Jax, Stewart, Varland, and Coulombe. Down a run in the bottom of the 9th, my friend and I decided the most 2025 Twins thing that could happen was for Buxton to hit another triple and then not score. We almost had it...
  4. jmlease1
    Miserable end to the game on a chilly night in a nearly empty stadium. I was one of the few that was there (paid for these tickets back in Feb, so might as well use them). Really sucks to lose to this @$&*# franchise. and the 9th inning was miserable. A very 2025 Twins loss. There were some good things going on too: Martin made a lovely running catch at the wall in LF. Buxton, Lewis, and Jeffers all looked good at the plate, and Zebby pitched quite well (even the homer he yielded was of the "excuse me" type). Even the much maligned Julien made a really nice fielding play at 1B. And then the bullpen melted down in the 9th to throw the game away. Blech. We estimated the crowd at no more than 5,000 (it was hard to judge since people were primarily gathered in spots where they could stay warm...) Can't blame anyone for not wanting to go see a Pohlad-owned team.
  5. jmlease1
    Cuddyer gets punished a little because defensive stats struggle to effectively show the true value of a strong and accurate arm in the OF. And he certainly played positions over the years that the team knowingly accepted that his defense wouldn't be good, just because they needed someone to give it a go and Cuddy was willing and at least had a chance to be passable. I'd rank him lower on this list than someone like Delmon Young, who consistently sucked, never added any value defensively, and also never improved anywhere. I suspect if Cuddy had landed in RF at 25 he might have ended up with better numbers overall. Kubel is another guy who wasn't a butcher out there, but after that awful knee injury was slow and limited. He played more games at DH than any other position because he simply couldn't play the field very well any longer. It's sorta like saying Tony Oliva was a crappy OF from '72 on, you know? The only reason Kubel was still in the OF in 2010 and 2011 was the Twins had added Thome to DH. When I think of the truly bad defenders in Twins history I think of guys like Willingham (who could only cover about 20 ft) or Delmon who took some of the worst routes I've ever seen. Appropriate to see them here. Sano is reasonable as well: he had the arm for 3B but not the mobility, and that arm didn't mean much at 1B (and nothing at DH). I have trouble blaming him for sucking in RF; that was always a stupid idea and set him up for failure.
  6. jmlease1
    Pretty good start for a guy we got in the Paddack deal. He's definitely still a catcher...it'll be interesting to see how they manager Jimenez and Tait going forward and if they end up playing at the same level next season. But he's been raking in the FSL and that's not easy to do. Still a pretty small sample size, but it's encouraging that in his first taste of A-ball he hasn't flinched at all at the plate. Wouldn't be a shocker if he started next season back in Ft. Myers, but I don't think that's a knock on him. He'll only be 20 and this is his first experience above rookie ball.
  7. jmlease1
    Nice little breakout game for Captain America. Wasn't worried at all. Just stay healthy mah dude. Rosario sure looks locked in right now and is finishing off his season with a bang. His horrific April looks more and more like an outlier. Heck, he's even swiping bases: he's gone from single digits to 20+. Be interesting to see if that still plays up as he moves up. No question he's in AAA next season. Good to see Amick back off the IL. Bummer that he's missed so much time this season; think he could have gotten pushed up to AA if he'd been healthier.
  8. jmlease1
    I assume Davis is only up until they actually recall Pablo? If so...it's fine, I guess. Fairly irrelevent. I'm fine with bring Adams back, and hopefully they have decided to stop working him as a starter/bulk inning reliever and move into into more of a 1-2 inning role. It's worth seeing whether or not he can thrive there and be a part of a bullpen going forward, working his way up from low leverage to higher leverage situations. Keirsey...doesn't make that much sense to me, unless the argument is "we have enough guys we actually want to get looks at" that they don't really see much of a role for that 14th bench guy. I can sort of see it, if they still want to be giving Larnach, Julien, Outman, Gasper, Lewis, Keaschall, and Lewis plenty of ABs...it doesn't leave much for anyone else. Personally, I've seen enough of Clemens to know what he is and would rather see if someone else could handle some 1B besides Julien, but I suspect that they view Clemens as enough of a veteran that they don't want to just cut him for Sept. (even thought they probably should) I just don't think Keirsey can hit at this level, and as a result he has no role other than defense/pinch running, and has no trade value to speak of. If the Twins were really trying to win games down the stretch, that skill set might make some sense to try and grind out a couple of additional wins...but a couple of wins means nothing right now. Does it really matter of they lose 88 games or 90 games?
  9. jmlease1
    I think more likely it means the deal is going to be more like 7 years rather than 10? Which is still just fine for the Twins: buying out all the arbitration years and getting 1 season of free agency while not having to worry about service time issues, wh=ould still be good. But it's certainly possible that Jenkins will bet on himself. He was a top 5 pick with a big signing bonus, so as long as he's been reasonable with his money he can afford to wait. But I'd still love to lock him down for 6-8 seasons and have him in MLB from the jump next season.
  10. jmlease1
    Because he missed a chunk of the season at age 20 in AA? Because there's no real reason to skip him past AAA in an utterly lost season? And as good as Royce looked, he wasn't putting up these numbers at age 20. Or get promoted as fast. Royce didn't first reach AA until he was 20 with a late season promotion. Royce then hit a mess with a lost pandemic season and serious injuries. While Jenkins has had some injuries, none of them have been serious (a tweaked hamstring and a dinged ankle aren't terribly worrisome)
  11. jmlease1
    A sign of bad luck, a bad bullpen, and a lineup with real holes. But an average season only adds about 4-5 wins to the total. Notably, the much-maligned Epic Collapse Twins of 2024 were 22-20 in 1-run games.
  12. jmlease1
    I get that people hate Sano because he struck out a lot and got hurt, but even with all of that, the Twins paid Sano just under $35M over 8 seasons, and he was worth roughly $65M during that period, so it's not like that deal really hurt the Twins. And Jenkins has a much higher ceiling than Sano, who was considered can't miss as a hitter (and a career OPS+ of 115 supports the conclusion that he didn't miss) but always had questions about a defensive position. (which of course was hurt by the idiotic decision by prior management to have him play RF in 2016 because we just HAD to get more 3B time for Plouffe and Nunez and DH time for Park, an actual bust) I'm fine with going all-in on Walker Jenkins who isn't just a projectable player, he's put up minor league results. Get him the extension like MKE did for Chourio (people around here keep demanding we do things more like MKE, here a real place to start!) and get him in the OF for 2026.
  13. jmlease1
    Which is he? the guy from 2023 & 2024 or the guy from 2025? And how is it exactly that you "know"? Really good and really consistent for 2 straight year before having a bad one. 30 years old, so still in his prime. I'm guessing you would have cut Sonny Gray after 2018, too.
  14. jmlease1
    I think that Morris is actually thought of very highly by the Twins, but he's missed a chunk of time this season and it's taken game action to get him back on track. He was far too hittable early in the season along with a few too many walks that left him with an unsustainable WHIP. Much, much better in august, but his overall innings for the season are a little light. With additions the team made for starting pitching, I don't expect him to break camp with the MLB club, but he'll be one of the first in line in AAA in 2026, IMHO.
  15. jmlease1
    Walker Jenkins Easy choiceKaelen Culpepper having a strong first pro season and looks capable of manning SS.Eduardo Tait Huge upside at a difficult position to fill. patience requiredEmmanuel Rodriguez still incredibly talented. needs to stay healthy. the constant injuries are concerning.Connor Prielipp stuff is elite. even if he's bullpen-bound, he's a weapon and finally healthyMick Abel don't panic on a bad first MLB outing with the TwinsDasan Hill rising fast.Gabriel Gonzalez healthy and earned his promotion. like his RH batKendry Rojas not as high on him as others. probably wasn't ready for AAACharlee Soto great talent, injury set him backBrandon Winokur high ceiling. low floor.Marco Raya bullpen bound?Marek Houston great glove, but concerned about his bat.Riley Quick here on scholarshipAndrew Morris injury set him back. but still looks like a MLB starterQuentin Young projection so far, but elite athleticism. not his uncle.Hendry Mendez showing good control of the zone in AA.CJ Culpepper still talented, needs inningsKyler Fedko earned his promotion to AAA and the production has been too impressive to leave offKyle DeBarge fast start, but concerns about the bat look warranted. base-stealing is great, but he has to get on there first... Dropped Keaschall, as he's in MLB and feels off the prospect list to me.
  16. jmlease1
    zero chance. Player's union would (justifiably) scream bloody murder if they demoted Keaschall, even if only for a week or so. Busted arm nuked his opportunity for RoY. That's the way it goes. Rosario has put up a very solid season and should be in AAA in 2026, hopefully pushing for a chance in MLB. His overall numbers look pretty good, and if you scrub off his horrifically bad April, they looked really good. Of course, April did happen, and he absolutely sucked to start the season, but he's ending it on a real tear. Not sure how the Twins value him at this point, but his RH bat would be a good fit in a future OF group considering all the LH OF we have running around. But he'll have to hit, and the last step can be a doozy.
  17. jmlease1
    Ober was good in limited action in 2022, very good in full seasons in 2023 & 2024. He's having a poor season in 2025 and already we have people around here suggesting he be dumped. Selling low on him seems foolish, and almost guaranteed to have the same people complaining about giving him away for nothing when he comes back and torches us. Cutting him is even dumber. Shut him down for the season when Pablo gets back, give him a full re-set to get right and see what you have in 2026. He's clearly still not right, either through injury or mechanics. But cutting him is reactionary stupidity. Offense did ok, 5 runs should be enough to beat the CWS, but Topa coughed up the late lead. Not great. Hate losing to this franchise.
  18. jmlease1
    It's still so little data on both of them, though Keaschall is at least getting close to a decent sample. Martin only has 81 PA's this season. Both of them are getting on base and taking their walks, which is hugely important. It'll be interesting to see if pitchers can get them to start chasing or swinging in bad zones as they build a book on them. Keaschall's power production and ability to do damage on mistakes should help him continue that way, but Martin will either need to show that he can do more damage on mistakes or be able to wear pitchers out by continually fouling pitches off. If he starts chasing that BA and OBP is going to drop fast and hard.
  19. jmlease1
    Remember when people were losing their minds around here that Akil Baddoo got picked in the Rule 5? Rosario having an epic August. Good for him, hope he keeping raking until the season ends. Still think he'll slip through the Rule 5, because he can't defend like Baddoo did and will be hard to stash on a MLB roster, but you never know. Like seeing Jenkins stay patient, but I get nervous when our star players get plunked. Just want all the top prospects to stay healthy for once.
  20. jmlease1
    Buxton and Ryan seem bound and determined not to let the Twins lose 90. While it'll hurt the team's chances for a draft pick, I like the pride. Impressive for Ryan to hold down this lineup this effectively. The error wasn't great, but Lewis did well at the plate. Would like to see him run a few more of these kinds of games in a row, maybe feel better about him as a hitter going into the offseason. If Martin can keep getting on base (and clean up his mental mistakes) he might have a future.
  21. jmlease1
    Gaetti was a fine player, but he wasn't better than Buxton. (healthier, sure. Not better) Gagne was drafted by the Yankees (he did get finishing school in MN after 3 seasons in the Yankees system). Brunansky was drafted by the Angels and made the majors before becoming a Twin. Gagne & Brunansky weren't stars; good players, not not stars. Bruno was a 1-time all-star, and Gagne a zero-time all-star. Neither has a case to complain about being overlooked. L:et's maybe take off the rose-colored glasses. 1 star is not an enviable record; of course, the Twins do have other stars in Lopez & Ryan, and developed Duran & Jax into star relievers before they were dealt. And maybe Keaschall & Jenkins add to the mix. Not arguing that the current farm system has developed enough talent. They've also had some bad luck with injuries that have wrecked some pretty talented players.
  22. jmlease1
    Abel has plenty of arm talent but the command has to improve. After having a high-stress first inning out there, he really could have used a break, but the offense went down meekly in the bottom half and he got pounded in the 7th. The uncharacteristic error from Lee definitely hurt him. I don't mind the attempt to try the piggyback and get all of our starters innings. I certainly don't want to see most of our bullpen... Bradley did pretty well. 5 good innings and showed good stuff. Can he deploy it consistently? That's the real question on him, and a reason to track him through september at least. Twins offense was pretty quiet. Didn't have Outman getting 2 base knocks on my bingo card. Don't like seeing Royce flail; he simply can't find a rhythm from game to game right now. Offense clearly needs more work.
  23. jmlease1
    Have you been injured by your team's ownership? The firm of Culpepper & Culpepper is here to help. :P The Bad Bohorquez showed up yesterday. His stuff is hard to hit and he hunts K's effectively, but the 3 walks and 2 HBP says what his control was looking like. He's still quite young, though, and patience is required. Have to like the arm talent. Much as you'd like Walker Jenkins to immediately start pummeling opposing pitching in AAA, I'm not worrying about a 1-15 start. He didn't destroy AA pitching when he got his first taste at the end of 2024 and turned out just fine this season. Just stay healthy mah dude.
  24. jmlease1
    Nice to see Zebby go 6 and put up a good start. And good effort from the bottom part of the lineup too. SD is a good team, so beating them is nice. I still don't think Larnach has much of a future here, mostly because the Twins are cheap and next season he won't be any longer, but if he hits like this down the stretch the decision will get tougher. Would really like to see Royce pile up a bunch of games like this and build confidence for next season.
  25. jmlease1
    Here's the thing though: hardly anyone defending Wallner (hell, I dunno if you can find anyone around here at all) is saying he's the next star. People like me are saying "he's a good hitter! we need that!" in response to the seemingly increasing numbers of people who think he's trash. Wallner's not a star. But he has been and can be a good starter and dangerous hitter. An interesting case has been made here for looking at why Wallner's production at the plate might not be the best judge of his true value...but even then I don't think Matthew is suggesting dumping Wallner.
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