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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Well, Carew was a Hall of Famer so that's a different comp than just being a star. But Carew did hit for some power, and it's part of why he was such a great hitter: all of Carew's best seasons were ones where he had some pop. In his prime seasons ('72-'78) he slugged less than .440 once. He had a career SLG of .429. Carew consistently ripped triples, which Keaschall hasn't done yet. It'll be easier for Keaschall to become a star if he develops a little more power; where he was at in 2025 is where he needs to be or better for his career to be a star, and if his production dips a little because his BABIP slips, rapping a few more dingers would make up for it.
  2. jmlease1
    Seems nuts to carry 4 LH relievers. It's not like these guys are elite, upper-echelon guys who you'd send out to close a game. Funderburk probably gets sent back to AAA (sorry mah dude), and someone gets cut between Banda and Chafin, absent injury. Maybe...maybe they keep 3...but kind of doubt it? I hope I'm wrong on Outman. And he's at least looked better at the plate and in the field than he did last season...but it's just spring training. Makes me wonder if Zoll was the one behind the trade in the first place? (while I hate the idea of anyone in the Twins front office being too enamored of Outman, it would be amusing after people around here used him as part of their endless litany for why Falvey needed to be shot into the sun...) Not sure who has the edge for the last spot in the rotation. I do think Bradley has a leg up for the 4th spot, so for me it's Abel v Matthews and I don't know which one really ahs the edge there.
  3. jmlease1
    I don't know that Houston's progress will define things much one way or the other for this draft; with such a high pick I'm guessing they'll take whomever they determine is the best player. (how they'll determine that would be interesting to know: how much is on projection/ceiling vs current skills, vs athleticism, vs makeup, etc) As difficult as it's been for the Twins to find quality consistent SS play and develop it internally, I don't they're going to worry much about whether Houston (or even Culpepper) is going to lock down SS in the near future. I certainly hope Houston takes a big step forward and is hitting with conviction at AA by midseason...
  4. jmlease1
    I don't think he'd be excoriated by most folks. The issue with Houston is whether or not that kind of slash line is achievable. If he's getting on base in the .350 range, not one is going to care if he's basically slapping singles and taking some walks. But if he's not able to show the ability to tun on a meatball and do some damage, those walks start getting a lot harder to find. That's why slugging still matters, because if a pitcher doesn't have to worry about you hitting anything for extra bases in a serious way, they won't nibble on a 3 ball count, but will just look to overpower you with fastballs in the zone until you prove you can do something with it. The concern with Houston is whether or not he'll be able to clear the Mendoza Line in MLB. If he can get to an OPS of around .650 he can start because his defense looks like it could be elite. If he's sitting more like .575, then he's maybe backup material no matter how good the glove is. Andrelton Simmons could still play SS very well defensively when he was a Twin, but his offense turned him into a black hole and he was out of the league at 32. I'd love for Houston to become the next Simmons, but Andrelton had a better bat than what Houston has shown so far. We'll see. I love the defense. I'm very worried about the bat. The college power was a mirage, because Wake Forest plays in a band box. The team SLG for Wake in 2025 was .540
  5. jmlease1
    Hopefully a healthy spring training will allow him to get in the reps he needs at 2B and improve his fielding there. If he shows he can field the position, he could hold it down for the next 5 years minimum. Hopefully his arm will have improved being further away from the injuries, and a lot of his mistakes in the field really looked like a lack of reps, not something that isn't fixable. He's got the tools to do well there, even if he might not be a plus defender. I'm not interested in moving him to the OF, though I'm sure he'd handle LF well and could fill in CF in a pinch with his speed...but there's plenty of OF prospects moving up in the system and moving him to the OF to open something up for Brooks Lee seems wasteful. If Culpepper takes the SS job away from Lee, then Lee becomes the utility guy who plays SS, 2B, and 3B. I'm less enthusiastic about DeBarge than some; the steals are fun, but it's A-ball. Pitchers barely even try to hold runners it seems and the catching is wildly inconsistent, and frankly I'm a little concerned about his defense. yes, he won a minor league Gold Glove, but neutral prospect evaluators like KLaw are more skeptical of his defense and warned to take the minor league awards with a grain of salt. De Andrade certainly seems to be plummeting. Too bad, I had high hopes for him after 2023, but 2024 was a lost season, and he struggled at the plate in 2025 while getting moved off SS for the most part. Maybe he settles in at 2B or 3B?
  6. jmlease1
    He's going into his THIRD professional season. Not 4th. Kirilloff had 799 ABs and 198 hits in MLB. Not "exactly zero". (I'm still bummed that we rarely got to see healthy Kirilloff, and certainly don't hold injuries against a guy who was forced into retirement at 26 over them against him as some kind of moral failing) wtf? I get that you don't think Soto is anything more than a lottery ticket, and you might even be right. A lot of high school pitchers never work out. But can we use actual facts?
  7. jmlease1
    Except, of course, you're kinda wrong about everything here? Last season he was injured and barely pitched, but 1) he did have a rookie season, 2) his results weren't "piss poor" for a pitcher 4 years younger than his competition coming straight out of HS and already up at High A, and 3) he threw 74 innings in 2024 to go with the 13 in 2025, so if you can count that on your fingers and 1 foot you're definitely some kind of mutant. I might be worried if he was sitting at #5 on the prospect list, but it's hardly unusual for a team to have a guy sitting in the 8-12 range who has big upside but lost a developmental year to injury. Dooming the twins to flounder for years because Charlee Soto was injured last year but everyone but you still thinks he's got a ton of potential is...a take.
  8. jmlease1
    I'm excited about Soto. The TINSTAAPP Rule still applies, but the upside and talent are tantalizing. It sounds like he's recovered well from the surgery, so hopefully he'll be able to go up to Cedar Rapids (it wouldn't shock me if they keep him in extended Spring Training for a couple of weeks, just to watch his elbow a little and wait for it to warm up a little) and we'll see how he does in refining his pitches and improving his command. It'll be interesting to see if they work on improving the shape of his fastball more or if they focus more on development of the sinker? I am excited to see him throw that change, though. I looooove a starter with a good changeup. Twins have had some awesome ones in their history and it would be very fun if we can add Soto to the list.
  9. jmlease1
    It's so hard to know just from stats in spring training. But better to see good than bad? I'd love for this to be a sign that Roden and GG are ready for real roles on the team and that they're getting the chance to win jobs. The floor for someone like Larnach is decent, but it doesn't seem like there's a lot of ceiling left. (notably, Outman, whom I have ripped fairly consistently as not being a very good fit for this team who is blocking opportunity for others, has hit pretty well so far. Unclear how his D looks?) Clemens seems fine to me as a backup, as he can play several positions as an average or above defender, and his power production (if it continues) could be valuable. As a starter, it's harder to see him being even average. I'd like him to be a floor setter, but he does have more utility than Larnach.
  10. jmlease1
    It's not particularly abusive to the players, really: they're getting paid a MLB salary instead of a minor league one. And in the Twins case, the player wouldn't have to move or disrupt anything if they get bounced up and down from AAA to MLB (a small competitive advantage for the Twins having their AAA affiliate in Saint Paul and the MLB club in Minneapolis). It makes it attractive for the Twins to sign players to a kind of "Quad A" deal, because it doesn't result in an rotten season of travel and multiple moves: you can just live in the same place. Passing Jackson to AAA would be ideal. Keep him on the 26-man as a 3rd catcher is borderline insane.
  11. jmlease1
    Short answer: No. Longer answer: No, unless they're intending for people to write a bunch of additional think pieces on how the Twins roster construction makes no damn sense? Jeffers and Caratini are good hitters a catcher. They're not good hitters at 1B or DH, more like "occasionally acceptable". Neither are particularly good defenders at 1B either, and neither should ever be sent to the OF. Jackson is a fine defensive catcher, but hasn't proven he can hit. Probably a good backup, might have potential for more, but probably a backup. Can't be seen as effective or productive at any other position. Unless the Twins are suddenly going to carry 12 pitchers (something they've shown no indication they're interested in and seems foolish with their bullpen uncertainty) you cannot carry 3 catchers unless one of them plays another real defensive position and even then it's doubtful. How is it a good idea to have a bench of 1 infielder, 1 outfielder, and 2 backup catchers?!? If Bell is the starting DH, then you'd have to make Caratini or Clemens the starting 1B and send Larnach to the OF. If Larnach is the starting DH, then Bell has to start at 1B and under this construction there's no spot for Clemens...and while forcing Clemens off the roster ain't crazy, it makes no sense to keep Jackson over him. What a dumb idea.
  12. jmlease1
    Kirilloff had exactly one healthy pro season in his whole career, unfortunately, and it was all the way back in 2018, when he came off Tommy John and murdered A-ball. His best season in MLB was certainly 2023, when he was also his healthiest...and still only played 108 games between the minors and the majors. Knowing where his ceiling was when he never played a healthy season in MLB is quite a feat? The idea that he wouldn't take walks is a bit skewed; he certainly did in 2023 (that .348 OBP would have ranked 4th on the 2025 Twins from qualifying players). And estimates on his power is a little hard for a player who battled wrist, elbow, and back injuries his entire career?
  13. jmlease1
    Sure, but I think I'd rather give it to the guy who has proven something in pro ball and had success in AA over the guy who has a bunch of tools & question marks and no real pro track record.
  14. jmlease1
    I mean, I don't mind doing the risk/reward thing at #54, you know? A team should take some of those risks. I think there's a feeling around here at times that teams are supposed to always hit on their first 3 selections every draft, and that's just terribly difficult.
  15. jmlease1
    Kirilloff was ruined by injuries, not a lack of talent. Not a lot you can do about that. Lewis has also been sapped significantly by injury. Some of that is just bad luck. Larnach has been hampered by some injury issues, but he's simply been just ok rather than good. Jeffers has been quality, a good starter. Duran became an all-star closer and was traded for what we hope was a lot of value. Honestly, things like that are going to happen with your top prospects. The bust rate looks high, but if you control for injury then it's probably not about flaws in talent evaluation and development, at least? The back half of the top ten does look much worse; the Cavaco pick was dicey from the jump and while Sabato was also a stretch, at least it wasn't a top 10 pick. They both got ranked too high on the prospect list here because of their draft status more than their actual project and ability, which is a good reminder to be careful about giving players too much credit on scholarship. Balazovic was well-liked by a lot of people but some injuries and him being something of a headcase ended his time as a prospect. Enlow is a reminder of TINSTAPP. I do wonder how much the pandemic screwed up the development of guys like Cavaco, Balazovic, Enlow, etc. Canterino of course has been ruined by injury and was a calculated risk from the jump I think. (it hasn't worked out, but I still don't mind the process on it...and I'm still rooting for him to be healthy enough to pitch) Having Rooker, Sands, Wallner, and Miranda in the final quartile is pretty good, actually. Wallner may be despised by a segment of Twins Daily fans, but he was a hardly a prospect miss. Sands is slotted in the bullpen and should be a solid setup guy. Rooker didn't figure it out in time here, but the talent was there. And Miranda was doing fine until the beaning wrecked him; I can't hold that against him or the Twins development staff...and frankly, I question the humanity of anyone who does. The big misses by Twins Daily on this prospect list were over-hyping Cavaco and Sabato based on draft position, probably being a little too high on Larnach (though there were decent reasons) and Celestino (who I would argue was mismanaged and is one of the bigger developmental fails by the organization).
  16. jmlease1
    I think this grouping shows that Mendez was definitely rated too low, lol. I do still believe in Raya's talent, but I am glad that he's getting moved to the bullpen. He's been passed by quite a few guys on the pitching charts and he should have the weapons to roll in the bullpen. I'd probably have Young lower because there's so much unknown on him. Trying not to hold his family relations against him; not his fault Delmon was a Twin. Hopefully the Twins will move Winokur off SS for good; he's never going to play there and he should focus on positions where he might actually have a defensive home (3B, CF, maybe even 1B where his size and athleticism would play up nicely). At some point though his tools have to start translating into more production or it won't matter. I'm a little skeptical on him. Morris would have been one of our top pitching prospects not all that far in the past, so having him land here is a good sign we're developing more and better prospects. I don't think a 6-pitch mix will play, so he's going to need some of his offerings to be where he puts his focus, IMHO. And he needs to stay healthy. To me, he's not really competing for a rotation spot even with Pablo out and Festa getting shut down; Matthews, Abel, Bradley, and even Rojas look ahead of him right now. I suspect he'll be in AAA as a starter as the 2nd option or so to come up in case of injury or ineffectiveness. (which is fine! let him prove it) Quick has the most upside of this tranche, and it'll be fun to see how he goes this season. I think he'll be very strong in Ft. Myers and might even get a promotion to Cedar Rapids earlier than expected.
  17. jmlease1
    Does he really bring great defense, though? That's part of the question. At least one respected prospect evaluator isn't enamored of his ability on that side of the ball, which is concerning. I don't know how much we're supposed to really hang our hats on the minor league gold gloves at this point. (KLaw said they're not worth much, and while he can be a thin-skinned jerk, he's also pretty thoughtful about his prospect evaluations and doesn't just make guesses off other people's work)
  18. jmlease1
    Diaw is the most interesting prospect here I think; someone who is a good enough athlete to play both catcher and center field is something we haven't seen recently (ever?) so it should be fun to see how that progresses for him. It'll be interesting to see if the power production he showed last season is for real; he didn't play a lot of games so it's still a pretty small sample. He seems to have a solid understanding of the strike zone, and it wouldn't surprise me if he advanced up to AA fairly quickly. Hope he can stay on the field. I'm not as high on DeBarge as some. The way his bat showed less and less pop as the season went along is worrisome and he finished the season looking pretty awful at the plate. The steals are fun, but it's A-ball: the catching isn't good enough yet and a lot of pitchers do little to hold runners on. The minor league Gold Glove may be overstating his defense as well; I specifically asked KLaw about this and he said the minor league defensive awards are not to be trusted. Maybe he was dealing with some nagging stuff or just got ground down by the long season, but I have real questions about his bat. Culpepper is properly ranked: talented but needs to stay on the field. Hope he does? Ellwanger is a wild card. It'll be interesting to see how he responds to pro baseball. He's pretty wild right now. There's an interesting ceiling here but he could also end up in the bullpen quickly. Mendez is interesting. I have to wonder if he's going to be spending more time at 1B? Hard to argue with his results last season: he hit well in his first taste of AA, responded to a trade by hitting even better. I think there's some additional power in there, but there also doesn't seem to be much of a need to tinker with his approach right now. He could start in AAA, frankly, and I wouldn't mind seeing him seeing him in Saint Paul as the primary 1B...
  19. jmlease1
    LOL, never let accuracy get in the way of people bashing Falvey...
  20. jmlease1
    Jenkins or Rodriguez, and right now it's probably Rodriguez? I think because of the injuries people don't think of how athletic he is, but he's definitely got the tools to hold down CF.
  21. jmlease1
    I hope they're not planning on a lot of Caratini at 1B; as a catcher his offense plays, but as a 1B it gets a lot sadder. I get that Bell's defense is not great, but maybe the Twins can help him a bit and it'll be tolerable? I suspect we'll see Clemens come in for defense if we get into late innings with a lead, and I'm fine with that. Clemens is a reasonable 26th man, but he's unplayable vs LHP and even if last season's "good" stretches weren't a mirage, you have to minimize his exposure to LHP. His positional flexibility is useful (he's at least acceptable at 2B, 3B, and a corner OF and pretty good at 1B defensively) but expecting him to handle a starter's load is foolish. I guess people remember the hot stretches a lot more than the bad June and horrific August? Maybe Mendez will be a guy that can make it work at 1B? It's been the position the Twins have shorted themselves on for a while, since Mauer retired. And with the payroll from the Bad Businessmen Pohlads tightening up, finding external help is going to be chancy. I year we get a good Carlos Santana, the next year...who knows?
  22. jmlease1
    GG had an excellent 2025, and you can see exactly why the Twins wanted him in the Polanco deal. He clearly understands how important being healthy and staying on the field was to his progress last season, and I hope he's able to repeat his good health from last year. Glad to hear he's working on his defense: if he becomes even an average defender in the corners that would be a nice step up, because I think his bat will play. Will want to see if he gets back to a more patient approach; he was swinging a bit more when he got to AAA and you'd like to see better control of the strike zone. But he also made a lot of good hard contact and looks like a player who could hit for average and solid pop, and I'd love to see his RH bat in the Twins lineup. I expect he'll start the season in AAA, but I hope he's also knocking on the door and demanding the Twins give him some run this season because he's punishing balls in Saint Paul. Lot to like there.
  23. jmlease1
    I should note, that as much as I bash Outman and don't think he's a good fit for the team, if he goes out and wins the job by killing it in spring training (showing that he can really play CF well, hitting effectively and showing a good process, proving that his speed is back, etc) and outperforming the competition...then fine. My biggest beef with him is presuming that he gets an OF job and a 26-man spot because he's out of options. No scholarships. Go win the jobs.
  24. jmlease1
    It's spring training, it should be a time for optimism! After last season's dreadful start in AAA, where it looked like the Twins had pushed Rojas to stick in Saint Paul when he really should have been in AA, I was thinking Rojas wasn't really going to be an option to pitch in MLB this season and would only see time if the rotation was utterly decimated by injuries/ineffectiveness. While I don't think he's a true contender for the rotation on Opening Day, it's great to see for ourselves why he was rocketing up prospect boards and why he was the prize in the Varland deal. I like having an open competition between Bradley, Matthews, Abel, and maybe Festa and Rojas or even Morris for the last spots in the rotation. Much like the OF, I want to see prospects WIN the jobs not for anyone to get handed a key role on scholarship.
  25. jmlease1
    I'll take any result that doesn't mean the Twins carry Outman on the roster via scholarship, whether it's Roden or Rodriguez tearing the cover off the ball or something else. I just want that 4th OF position to get WON by someone, not handed to them.
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