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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Are they mostly playing better? Jax: looks a bit luckier, not any better. Duran: not all that different, still awesome. Bader: a little luckier at the plate, maybe a bit less in the field, but pretty close as a player Varland: substantially worse so far, but in a fairly small sample Stewart: was not good, immediately injured Correa: hitting better, defense better away from SS (position change might be most impactful) France: looks like the same backup quality player he's been all season Paddack: worse for sure, partly because the Twins beat him up Coulombe: quite bad for Texas, but also a small sample Dobnak: still in the minors, but pitching better than he did in Saint Paul My scorecard would put that at: 2 better (Correa and Dobnak), 4 about the same (Jax, Duran, Bader, France), and 4 worse (Varland, Stewart, Paddack, Coulombe). Even if you could convince me that Jax, Duran, & Bader are "better" now that they've been dealt...that's still only half.
  2. jmlease1
    I'm definitely of the opinion that if the roster for 2026 has Outman as the 4th OF and Clemens as the starting 1B, there will not be a quick turnaround. Because if that's something they consider acceptable, then I have little faith their player evaluation and development will rebuild the bullpen quickly, promote the right rookies, develop keaschall properly, land an acceptable backup catcher, get Royce back on track as a hitter, develop Brooks Lee into an impactful player, and get enough polish on guys like Bradley, Abel, Matthews, Festa, Raya, Preilipp to have a quality rotation. Goodness there's a lot of things that need doing. It's far from impossible that these things could occur, but the more questions and variables you have and fewer resources you can access the less likely you are to have success.
  3. jmlease1
    seriously. I think most people expect the Twins to struggle next season. I will say it does seem to be split into three camps around here: People who think the Pohlads will keep chopping payroll or at best staying flat, and think that Lopez and/or Ryan will be dealt in the offseason, removing even more players that can be counted on, making it unlikely for a turnaround even if some guys step forward People who don't think most of the roster are good enough players to be in MLB and think that the team will never win with the current front office Those who think a combination of both. None are necessarily wrong, really. A new manager will be expected to do something noticeably different from the last 2 seasons. Whether that's realistic without substantial roster turnover and/or investment...YMMV. But from a fan standpoint, it wouldn't necessarily have to be a fast turnaround to a winning season again to meet expectations. For one season, "fixing" one thing people complain about a lot might meet it. Who knows what ownership/front office expects.
  4. jmlease1
    Why is it a bad trade, when Berrios hasn't been much better than SWR over the past 2 seasons, gets paid a lot more, and the Twins also got Austin Martin who looks like a viable option for LF/4th OF next season? And who would you rather be paying $43M to over the next 2 seasons, Berrios or Lopez? You're underrating SWR. Trade hasn't exactly worked out for Toronto; they've won fewer playoff series than the Twins since acquiring Berrios.
  5. jmlease1
    That's a way to look at it. But let's look at those moves: Sold high on Arraez, who has been healthy the last 2 seasons but as a 1B/DH has been barely a league average hitter with no defensive value. Even with the injury, Pablo has been better. Sold high on Berrios, who has never been as good for Toronto as he was for MN. Do you think the Blue Jays feel great about paying him nearly $25M per season in '27 & '28? SWR is 7 years younger and has been as good if not better the last 2 seasons...and Austin Martin may have figured it out enough to be a quality LF Sold high on old, free agent-be Cruz and got an eventual all-star back in Joe Ryan. Elite move by any standard Paddack didn't work out great, but Rogers didn't deserve his all-star nod, hasn't been close to be considered for one since. Rooker was such a sure thing that he got dumped by SD and KC before landing in Oakland and figuring it out. Calling Rogers an inherited all-star is technically true, but misleading. Notably, you skipped past Sonny Gray, who was acquired for Chase Petty: Petty still has time to figure it out, but he's gotten rocked in MLB and AAA so far and maybe already be getting pegged for a transition to the bullpen. I'd say Gray worked out just fine. But this is how Cleveland and Tampa both do it: they draft, they trade, and they don't sign expensive free agents to start. As noted above: we're not throwing money at Dylan Bundy types any longer. It hasn't been a rousing success (need more consistency from guys like Matthews, Abel, Bradley, Festa, etc) but we're in much better shape for starting pitching that we were in the early days of the Falvey regime, and far better than Ryan II or Smith. Pipeline was probably a bad term to use, because people have tagged it as being all about drafting and developing pitching internally only. But it's unquestionably improved. The lineup side is much much shakier (injuries have played significant parts of it, but there's also high profile busts like Cavaco and Sabato, with far fewer late-round successes to point to) and much more damning
  6. jmlease1
    Yeah, because basically any other scenario and Joe Pohlad is never in charge of a professional sports team again in his life. Worked out well for him. Fans? Not so effing much.
  7. jmlease1
    I think Rocco was cooked either way. If a sale had been completed before the end of the season, allowing new ownership to come in, they would have likely tossed out Falvey and Rocco to put in their own picks. New owners rarely wait out another season to see if they like a guy like that, and after a bummer of a season (again) they would have cleaned house. They certainly could have moved quickly enough unless MLB and/or the Pohlads dragged things out well into the new year. I think it's fair to say that Rocco was both scapegoated a little by everyone; I think people around here blame him a little too much for example, but also the front office needed someone public to put some blame on, since ownership wasn't changing and the front office ain't firing itself. It's also more than fair to say that Rocco hadn't earned another season after missing the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons, even if crappy ownership gutted the roster and the front office didn't dumpster-dive their way into fixing it. It's fair to put at least some blame on young players not developing/adapting at the MLB level on the MLB staff, and that's headed by Rocco. They changed some coaches and it didn't make much difference, next step is changing the manager. Felt like Rocco was cooked either way when the team tanked it out of the all-star break and sent the club into fire sale. I don't hate on the manager like some do, but I still think it's the right decision.
  8. jmlease1
    There's also this disconnect on the "fundamentals" aspect where it sure seems like a lot of people around here think that the manager will spend large amounts of their time outside of games doing individual & team drill work with players on fielding (both infield & outfield), baserunning, and bunting. How many teams and managers allocate their time this way? And it sure seems like no matter what the next guys says about "fundamentals" people here won't be satisfied unless they a) see the manager hitting fungos early and often, and 2) get to witness the manager chewing someone out for screwing up on the bases or something...
  9. jmlease1
    A 64 year old dude whose most notable accomplishment as a manager was how much more the Dodgers won after he left, and who hasn't managed in 3 seasons? Pass.
  10. jmlease1
    I think we'll find out a little about whether the Twins have any real commitment to change with the managerial hire. If they pick someone from inside the organization (especially the MLB staff) then it's a sign that they're not all that interested in change and fired Rocco primarily as a sop to the fanbase. (it's not a guarantee that the next manager won't change things up, but it won't be a good sign for any substantive fundamental change for how they operate) They almost certainly will interview some internal candidates, and they should; if there's literally no one in the organization worthy of an interview, then they should be firing a lot more people really fast in the minor league ranks too and cleaning house on all the MLB coaches. (this would please some around here I'm sure, but would likely be a foolish overreaction that would throw out the good with the bad and offend some of the players to boot) But that's not where I would hope they'd have their focus. They need some fresh voices and new ideas, so I'd look for rising people from other organizations. Grabbing an ex-Twin with no managerial experience seems like a desperation play to win casual fans over, without necessarily improving the product. And why would you want it if you're someone like Morneau? He's got a very nice gig right now and a large family. I can't believe anyone is suggesting TK. This ain't Bud Grant coming back to stabilize things after being retired for literally 1 season; TK hasn't managed in decades, he's 75, and his health isn't the greatest. Crazy idea, just crazy.
  11. jmlease1
    I will take all that action. It will absolutely, positively, never-ever happen in the next 2 years, minimum. There's just no planet where anyone (and count Provus on this) would hire on the fired manager to do analysis on the air. You'd instantly piss off the new manager and their staff, probably upset any holdover players who would worry about whether they might get sold out, and infuriate the fanbase. Good grief, no one wants the old boss around.
  12. jmlease1
    It won't be hard for someone who wants to be a MLB manager to talk themselves into the upside and ignore the downside. You pass on one of these jobs and the window might close faster than you might think.
  13. jmlease1
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc...
  14. jmlease1
    Missed the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons, hard to really argue that he should have stayed. I never disliked Rocco all that much, but it sure seemed like the team needed a change. Will this fix all the problems people have with this team? Doubtful. Some people around here will immediately hate the next manager, because they'll almost certainly still apply analytics to game decisions, lineups, etc and for some, that's clearly not allowed. I think the most likely differentiation is they could hire someone who is more hands on with both the players and their own and less of a CEO model...but I suspect that won't be sufficient for some unless they get to see the manager showing someone how to steal a base or lay down a bunt personally. They could also go with someone who is a little more hierarchical/disciplinarian, but there's zero chance that it will actually be a Dick Williams/Billy Martin style screamer. But none of it will matter unless the players play better and stay healthy.
  15. jmlease1
    true. at the same time, it doesn't look like Kody Clemens will ever get on base like Ed Julien. As a platoon bat who can play multiple positions, I'm ok with Clemens making the 2026 roster. As a starter at 1B or really any position, I doubt it's going to go all that well. He's super streaky, unplayable against LHP, and makes a lot of outs. But he could be effective spelling RH bats at 2B, 1B, and in the OF. Julien has not significantly improved his position with the team, and it's shame. He's made more contact (good!) but can't find his power stroke (bad!) and won't draw walks like he used to with opposing teams not fearing him much at the plate (also bad). Since he adds nothing in the field (he might be fine at 1B with more experience, but with that as the best defensive position...) he needs to hit and he simply hasn't. Since teams have a book on Julien now he's looking like a Quad-A player, which definitely happens to guys who can't adjust when the league responds to them. (James Outman is sadly nodding from somewhere) He should be guaranteed nothing for next season.
  16. jmlease1
    Because what happens between the Twins and their investors is something the other owners don't care about. Clearing debt from a franchise so they know it's fiscally viable and could command a higher sell-price? That they do care about. The larger teams will complain about the revenue sharing aspect (they complain about any revenue sharing, so eff them), but there's plenty of teams on the other end of the spectrum that will look at the Twins and see a team doing what they would also do...and one they'll be able to beat for the next few years, while also using them as an example in their next round of CBA negotiations/threats. The other owners aren't giving up anything by allowing the Twins to sell part of their stake in the team, and the revenue-sharing money the Twins get is what the Twins were going to get, really. They might start to care if the Twins run bottom 5 payrolls for 5 straight seasons or something, but this doesn't impact the other owners much at all. And they really don't want to set any precedents that could open up a team's books any more than they have to.
  17. jmlease1
    A very 2025 Twins end to the season. I just hope it's the end of the Genesis Cabrera Experience in MN. (He's been on 6 teams in the past 3 seasons and been acceptable for exactly one of them. Proof of the old saw that all you need is to be LH with a pulse to get a job in an MLB bullpen I guess) SWR did quite well, and overall had another good season for the Twins. He's certainly viable as a back of the rotation guy and had a good september for a team in free-fall. 36 K's in 27 IP in September is nice to see, and he pitched some real gems against good teams this season. I've always liked him and if he can maintain his velocity and finish off more hitters consistently with that split-change he's got a bright future. The lineup struggles already against LHP and without Buxton and Keaschall in there it was probably always going to be a long day, but maybe it helped solidify that Outman should not be back at least? It's one thing to give someone like Roden (who has options remaining) another look next season and another thing to bring back Outman who does not, and additionally looked worse than advertised in the field, while looking lost at the plate more often than not. Nice to have Jeffers finish the season with 3 base knocks? Hope that wasn't his swan song too, but I have many fears about the Cheap Pohlads further tearing down the roster and no one should trust them at all with anything at this point. There needs to be some substantive and significant changes made to this franchise (roster, development, business, PR, etc) and it feels like the only real change that will happen is to keep slashing payroll.
  18. jmlease1
    This. If you go crazy low for too long the MLBPA will squawk and we saw from the A's actually spending some money last offseason that it will have results. But Twins could get away with it easily for 1 season after having much more middle of the pack roster costs for several years in a row, and then we're in lockout mode anyways with the CBA coming up. But god, it's like perfectly designed to kill baseball in the state. Baseball has tons of competition here for professional sports (Vikings, Wild, Wolves, Lynx, Loons...) and loads of things for people to do in the summer. Tanking attendance and fan interest going into a lockout with billionaire owners who are arrogant and stupid enough to think there won't be any significant effects of the sport disappearing seems...bad. All viciously cutthroat business decisions that have nothing to do with the wonderful game of baseball. Gross. I hope Provus is wrong. I want Byron Buxton to retire a Twin and be one of those awesome one-club players. I certainly don't want to see him a freakin' Atlanta uniform! That'd be almost as bad as seeing him in a Yankees jersey. 🤮
  19. jmlease1
    well, trading Buxton would be an utter disaster for the franchise and signal that they have no intention of even trying to win until after the presumed lockout, and would be an expression of greed that Grandpa Carl would have certainly approved of. While the market for Buxton might be robust should he go on it, the need to get him to waive his no-trade also limits it extensively and could easily result in the team doing another salary dump, rather than getting the kind of real value we'd need for this to be even remotely palatable. But will ownership care? Seems unlikely. They've "right-sized" payroll down to a point where they'll make money even if no one shows up next season (and attendance will be awful), and if they trade Lopez, Ryan, and Buxton (hell, why not trade Jeffers too at that point!) they'll be able to drive the payroll down to $50-$60M and generate real profits for everyone...except for the fans. Then they won't even lose much when the owners lock out the players in 2027! Brilliant business that will destroy baseball in MN. It's gross and evil, so seems pretty likely.
  20. jmlease1
    well, this is the Abel you hoped to get when you trade for him. The stuff has always been good, but he did an impressive job throwing strikes when he needed to and missing out of the zone in key spots instead of hanging one. Can he do it consistently? We'll see, but you could really see the talent there. I expect he would have gotten the 7th, but once again Rocco probably wanted to make sure he was walking off the mound on an upswing to go into the offseason, and I can't really blame him. Martin did a nice job (double steal not withstanding) of getting on base again, and that was a very nice catch he made in LF. It was nice to get some runs from the bottom of the lineup, but I'm still not impressed with Outman. Running into a homer every once and a while doesn't do it for me, and the error in the field was annoying.
  21. jmlease1
    Fewer truly slow players, more aggression, some additional faster players, some improved health, and the result of the games not mattering as much allowing for increased risk & experimentation get us there. Having Keaschall, Buxton, Martin, and a healthy Royce opens things up a lot more. Clearly they're looking at this as a way of scoring more runs and knowing that they can't count on slugging as much or afford to buy it, they're trying to get younger, faster, and more athletic. I'm fairly sure that Rocco is enjoying this and prefers to play more like this, but almost certainly didn't feel like he had the horses. And when Royce was still getting his legs under him, he would have gotten crushed if he'd been sending him in May and he pulled up lame. They're still not a fast team and have a lot of meh baserunners. (Larnach, Jeffers, Vazquez, Lee, Wallner...these are guys that can be opportunistic but aren't going to grab 20-30 bags) Swapping Larnach for Jenkins would add some more opportunities. They're also still running into outs...and notably Keaschall got injured stealing a base.
  22. jmlease1
    Obviously the players are trying to win, it's just that the managers aren't going to stretch a pitcher another inning/10-20 pitches to try and close a game over long-term player health and development. No one is going to be asked to play through an injury, etc. Prospects aren't going to get dropped for a slump like they might in MLB. I think the Twins dropped a minor league manager because they couldn't get on that program and were managing every game like it was Game 7...
  23. jmlease1
    I think I would have moved Bohorquez up higher in this, but Hill is a fine winner. Fair amount of injuries littered around the Twins pitching prospects this year (huge bummer that Soto missed basically the entire season) but there's some real arm talent there. Cedar Rapids will be interesting next season on the pitching side with Hill, Bohorquez, and (hopefully) Soto in the rotation and pushing to get moved up to AA. Never enough starting pitching, right?
  24. jmlease1
    Good to have Ober finish the season on an upswing. Maybe people will stop talking about non-tendering him now? I still think he's going to need to find a little more velocity to have these kinds of performances more consistently next season, but hopefully he can get his body right in the offseason and get back to throwing 91mph consistently. I suspect he would have gone another inning but Rocco probably wanted to make sure he finished the season with a good performance and potentially a win, and I can't really argue with it. Byron Buxton is just awesome. He's a truly great player, but also just one of the most exciting and fun Twins we've ever had. I hope we can put a competitive team around him next season, and I hope he's a Twin for life. Love that dude. Funderburk may be pitching his way into a job next season. Don't think I'd be too comfortable with him as the sole LHP in the bullpen, but he's been quite good in the second half, and it's been good to see him go every other day lately and answer the bell.
  25. jmlease1
    Either Maton or Williams wouldn't upset me as the primary 9th inning guy. Seem like they might even be within budget. I essentially subscribe to the theory that the Twins primary closer for 2026 isn't on the roster. Getting someone like this would help solidify things I think and keep Sands from being needed too consistently in the highest leverage roles. I'm not sure I'm ready to send Matthews or Festa to the 'pen yet, but regardless, I wouldn't count on Festa being ready for the season at this point. While I wouldn't mind the Twins bringing back Brock Stewart in the offseason (I just don't think the LAD are going to offer him arbitration), he's also not someone you can count on to be your closer. If he's healthy, he can definitely close out a game, but you can't build a bullpen counting on him to be in a critical role for most of a season.
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