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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    So the prospects won't be good enough and the free agents are above our price point. What exactly would your plan be then? SS is not a strength right now for the Twins, so we're back to where we were before bringing Correa in. Twins have been patching it together at SS for decades.
  2. jmlease1
    I'm not nearly as high on DeBarge as some. Sure the steals are fun, but it's A-ball, where the catching is all over the place, and the pitchers are wildly inconsistent at holding runners on. The real issue is all pop vanished from his bat by June, and his hitting got worse and worse as the season went along. If we're supposed to be concerned about Amick because of how he finished the season and his struggles in the AFL (during an injury-riddled season), shouldn't we be at least as concerned about DeBarge who finished the season looking lost and overwhelmed at the plate? Lot of K's for someone with no power. The walks will decline rapidly as he goes up in levels if he can't show he can make contact and do damage, so even if the steals are an indicator or being a weapon on the bases, what good will it do if he can't get on there consistently? For me his stock didn't change much, with the decline at the plate throughout the season offsetting the speed/defense last season. Impressed with Hill and Culpepper. We'll see if anyone else emerges.
  3. jmlease1
    There's a variety of reasons some people are still upset, it's not just a linear action of people being bad they weren't playing the young guys and now being forced to play the supposed young guys. There's the people who hate Falvey, and won't be happy until he's fired; there's the crew that won't be happy until the Twins get rid of guys who strike out a lot and start bunting more; there's those who thought we were finally moving on from the Cheap Pohlads and had the rug pulled out from under us, etc. That said, a lot of people are asking to see the prospects and let them sink or swim, but there's no real evidence that the Twins are planning on that happening yet. There's definitely some inexperienced players who will be relied on, but it sure looks like a lot of the top prospects in the high minors won't be starting with the team. Outman & Larnach are looking like they're on the 26-man and they're neither young nor prospects of any kind at this point. (Martin isn't all that young any longer either, but at least he played well last season) Clemens isn't young, and isn't a prospect. Lewis isn't a young prospect any longer either. Even in the pitching we don't know who is getting a chance; are we actually going to see Raya & Preilipp in the bullpen or are we going to see a bunch of dumpster-diving bullpen candidates in Spring Training and even guys like Adams and Ohl still trying to land a job? So far the only young prospects that are somewhat locked in are Keaschall (who needs to stay healthy) and Lee (who isn't that young since he was a college player and has been up in MLB in 2024 & 2025). Julien will be 27 coming off back-to-back poor seasons. Larnach will be 29 and struggled. Outman will also be 29 and has declined in the field and is a horrible mess at the plate. Roden's the baby of the group and will be 26. Clemens will be 30. All of them are likely to need time in the OF or at DH and just their presence on the roster makes it harder for guys like Gonzalez, Rodriguez, or Jenkins to get time absent injury. None of them were good in 2025. It's not a real youth movement. And there's a bunch of sunk costs that the Twins can't move on from.
  4. jmlease1
    Not sure with Lowe; which guy would we get? The one who looked lost at the plate in DC or the guy who bounced back in Boston? Does he return towards career averages in 2026 or has the slide begin for him? Should we expect career splits or is he going to get murdered by LHP for the rest of his career? (this would matter less if Kody Clemens wasn't the other 1B) Just don't know. Think I'd rather sign the RH bat? The OF are both eff no. we don't need non-tender OF right now; frankly we have too many guys cluttering up the roster in the OF already (am I interested in more of the sunk cost of James "my name now represents me" Outman? No.) and I'm more interested in seeing what Gonzalez, Rodriguez, and Jenkins than I am with another retread. I'd rather see more of Roden than either of these clowns.
  5. jmlease1
    Jackson has always been solid defensively, which is why he keeps getting chances to stick as someone's backup. If he hits at all he'll be a nice player at a reasonable price. It comes down to whether or not you think the adjustments he made and results he put up last season are reflective of where he is as a hitter or just a small-ish sample size fluke? As noted in the article, there are underlying metrics to suggest that he may have found something. His MLB track record prior to 2025 as a hitter has been pretty poor, but he has hit in AAA. Considering how poor Vazquez was as a hitter the past 2 seasons and just how low the bar is for catchers as hitters in MLB, this could end up as an upgrade at a much more palatable price. Better than Pereda? We'll see.
  6. jmlease1
    Nice trolling putting Royce Lewis on this list. Gonzalez should be ahead of Fitz, Kreidler, or McCusker and if he's not then we're pretty damn stupid. Frankly, I'd rank him ahead of Outman, who I think is unsalvageable and a waste on the roster and spending a 26-man spot on him with better prospects with higher upside is foolish. Ranking Martin below Roden after last season is weird. Martin was good, showing an offensive skillset that while lacking in power was still effective and he showed real improvement in LF. Roden was dreadful at the plate, and while he may be a higher rated prospect at this point, Martin has substantially out-performed him in MLB. Frankly, Martin should be above Larnach, whose mediocrity on offense and lack of defense has him as a fringe roster player. Martin is looking like a solid contributor.
  7. jmlease1
    The injury issue is going to be with him until he shows that he can stay on the field. But the talent is real. Personally, I would prefer to give him a shot to win a job out of spring training (along with Roden, Gonzalez, Jenkins, and Fedko) than keep Larnach on the roster. Emma can play a credible CF, and an OF alignment of Martin in LF, Buxton in CF, and Rodriguez in RF allows Wallner to spend more time at DH with someone like Roden (who has little to prove at AAA) as the 4th OF and now you have an OF that defends well with good speed and the potential to hit, while finding out more about what we really have in some of these players. We'd still be a little too LH at times, but I'd rather be looking this way than hoping against hope that Larnach gets better at 29. Play the kids. We've got 5 outfield prospects with AAA or better experience (not including Outman, who I think is a lost cause) and while Jenkins might be the only "sure thing" while still needing a little more time to develop, what are we really waiting for? Even if Rodriguez gets nicked up and struggles to stay on the field, we still have other guys ready to step in. It's not 2022, when we ran out of OF and didn't have any options to call up in the minors. Either these guys are legit prospects or they aren't.
  8. jmlease1
    There's no real 40-man roster reason to "need" to non-tender Larnach; there's several candidates that could be DFA'd without any real consequence (McCusker is an obvious choice that even plays OF, but there are several others). To me, if Larnach is non-tendered it's about money and the Cheap Pohlads setting the payroll at a very low level for 2026. I hope he's traded rather than non-tendered, but I suspect there's little market for him. He's a league-average platoon bat with no real defensive value, some injury history, who is getting more expensive, turning 29 before the season starts, and has limited upside. Not sure who is clamoring to pay that guy $4-5M; I expect he either signs a 1-year deal as a free agent in the $2-3M range or goes to Japan/Korea.
  9. jmlease1
    I don't think re-examination of Hunter's case for the Hall gets him any closer to induction. It's a really long road to go from where he sits to the 75% needed for induction, and he'd need a really substantial jump right now to build enough momentum to get anywhere close. Beyond that, as much as I loved Torii as a player for the Twins, he's the classic example of the Hall of Very Good. He was never really bad (probably just played too much the last two seasons) once he got established in MLB, but he also wasn't consistently great. he got 4 all-star nods which was quite frankly...very fair. It's hard to say he deserved more of them just maybe that he got the nods in some years he maybe shouldn't have and was passed over in some years where he was deserving. It even out. He never had the big MVP season; the one time he finished in the top 10 for AL MVP he easily had the worst season of anyone in the top 10 voting (it probably should have gone to A-Rod that year but Texas stunk). It's hard to say he was overlooked in MVP voting. He's remembered for his defense, but his defense had slipped long before he stopped getting Gold Gloves. A very good player, who was very good for a really long time. But not better than Lofton or Edmonds (who were contemporaries), or Andruw Jones (another contemporary) who had a much higher peak. You have to rate Hunter's late career consistency pretty high (and it is impressive how he stayed a very good player well into his 30's) to push him up. Loved watching him play (although the yahoo hero-ball play he tried and failed to make against the A's in the Dome still drives me crazy all these years later), and he's a Twins Hall of Famer for sure. But not MLB Hall of Famer.
  10. jmlease1
    Aggie started for the Twins when he first came over (he'd only just moved to the Mets bullpen full-time in '89). Reardon was the one who was an established closer when he came over to the Twins.
  11. jmlease1
    I think there's little chance we see Rojas in the bullpen or the rotation any time soon. Yes, his stuff is impressive, but he was pushed too quickly last season and got throttled in AAA. He needs real development work and while he can probably get past last seasons crapitude, this is not a pitcher who is anywhere near ready. He's never made 20 professional starts. He's never thrown 100 innings. he only had 4 starts in AA last season. He only made 9 starts in AAA and struggled in most of them, and even in his best outings wasn't efficient at all. He should have been in Wichita last season, and there's a fair argument to make that he should start 2026 there regardless. Notably, he didn't even pitch the first 2 months of the season last year. Loads of talent, nowhere near ready.
  12. jmlease1
    I doubt he's getting serious consideration as the backup 1B to Kody Clemens, but he's still on the 40-man, so they'll throw the idea out there at this point in the offseason. They can at least pretend to the agents of the world that they're not desperate to find a cheap RH 1B/DH type to add to the roster. I was on Team Julien, and really thought he could be a hitter for the Twins, but it's increasingly looking like he's not been able to adapt to how MLB pitching attacks him. It's not a done deal that he can't figure something out; unlike Miranda, when he got shipped back to AAA he hit credibly for the Saints and he does have good recognition of the strike zone. But he's not a realistic candidate for 1B unless there's an injury, and his defensive chops aren't good enough for him to contribute much if he's not hitting. He's a platoon bat with some real deficits right now. To be fair, he did hit well enough to close out the season (though the lack of pop in his bat was concerning), but he was also terrible in August, so betting on him to be like he was in September is the sort of thing that got me foolishly overhyped about Chris Parmelee back in the day.
  13. jmlease1
    Teams can roster 39, but few do for more than brief periods except during the off-season.
  14. jmlease1
    I'm a little nervous about Fedko, but he's going to be hard to stash on a MLB roster for a full season. After a good half season at AAA at 26 is he really going to be in high demand and ready to hit in MLB from the jump? It's possible he's LaMonte Wade Jr part II, but Wade had at least gotten a couple of cups of coffee in MLB (without getting destroyed) before he got plucked by the Giants. I understand taking the risk. I'm not sure I understand keeping McCusker on the 40-man?
  15. jmlease1
    Glad to see Winokur playing 3B. I'm joining the party of people who can see that he's not going to have a future at SS (especially with multiple people ahead of him who are all better at actually playing SS) so time to move him off there and see where the right fit will be for him in the future. With his power, I can see 3B and her has the arm for it. With his speed, I could see him in the OF. With his size I could see him being great at 1B. Let's figure that out while he figures out how to hit. Boadas did well. Good stretch for him getting back on the mound and letting his arm talent play. I'll be interested to see how his command plays in the minors in 2026 and what level he spends most of his time. He'll definitely have to bring down the free passes, but he's sown some intriguing talent. Rough run for Billy Amick. I'm sure he was hoping to get back some of the rhythm he had before he got hurt in Cedar Rapids this season and impress, but he just didn't get going. Time to take some time off, get some rest, then get started on a good off-season program. Forget about the AFL, Billy. I hoped to see Mendez play more and see how he looked at 1B, but looks like life got in the way. Hopefully everything is ok for him and his family and he can go kick butt in 2026. I think he starts in AAA, and I hope he shows enough to look like a real option at 1B in the future. He had a fine 2025 and didn't miss a beat after the trade, so here's hoping he keeps on raking.
  16. jmlease1
    I think Royce just went through a run where his immense physical talent no longer was enough to pull him out of his struggles. We'll see whether he's able to keep working on his craft, make adjustments, overcome any physical limitations he might now have and get back on track. It's hard to believe that he'll continue to be so poor at the plate, but it does happen. It was somewhat encouraging to see him play well in the field and not carry those struggles at the plate with him; he's more than solid at 3B defensively, which is a start at least. I do have a real problem with his comments about having to become more results oriented because of how supposedly quickly they "pull the trigger on you" if you're not performing, etc. Because outside of moving down in the batting order, Royce played whenever he was healthy. They didn't yank him after he hung a sombrero, they didn't bench him when he was mired in a rotten streak where he was striking out, chasing everything, and making weak or no contact. He kept playing basically any day he was healthy enough to go in the lineup and never came close to losing his starting job, despite playing like a bench guy. If your attitude is "eff these guys" and "they turned on me" when you stink and they started having you hit 7th, then I'm a little concerned about where his head is at. Much as I love the joy Royce can bring to the game, if he thinks it's someone else's fault for how poorly he's performed at the plate over the last 18 months, then I'm worried about his ability to pull himself out it. We'll see. I'm rooting for him. A return to form would make a real difference in this lineup. Hope his head is on straight and he stays healthy.
  17. jmlease1
    I think this is right. I would love to be wrong, but to me Clemens looks like a useful guy at the end of the roster (LH power, positional flexibility, good clubhouse guy, etc) but as a starter? Likely getting overused and overmatched. Regardless, they have to find a RH bat that can play 1B if this is the plan (admittedly, the Twins plan for 1B could turn on a dime and I take anything they say right now with a hefty grain of salt) because Clemens is dreadful vs LHP and even in 2025, his best year as a pro he was amazingly bad vs LHP (so bad that he might improve just because he was so far below his career numbers vs LHP, but even reaching that is not a guy you want starting vs any LHP) Handing Clemens the job is the first sign they don't intend to compete in 2026. We'll see if they follow through.
  18. jmlease1
    Interesting mix of successful MLB players and grinders who barely made it/never got out of the minors. It's an interesting breadth of experience. And it's good to see some additions from outside the Twins usual orbit. It does look like Shelton had real input on his staff? Now, it won't matter all that much if the player's don't stay healthy and perform, but it seems like a pretty good group. I'd say the biggest question mark is Toby Gardenhire, since he's been the AAA guy and one of our biggest problems recently has been getting players to take that last step from AAA stud to MLB regular, but who knows how much of that has to do with the manager?
  19. jmlease1
    Rogers might be a good fit, but coming off a season where he made $12M does anyone really think he's only getting $3M or so? He's probably landing in the $4-6M range, which isn't bargain bin. I still like him as a fit to bounce back a little, be a primary lefty in the bullpen to take pressure off Funderburk, and with his experience take on a 9th inning role as appropriate to take pressure off someone like Sands too. But he won't be a bargain bin guy.
  20. jmlease1
    It's certainly possible for all of these guys to regress, I guess? But Jeffers is more likely than any of them, just because playing catcher is awfully hard on players and he's been on a multi-year slide from his peak in 2023. And I think people think of regression of a big dip in production, which might not happen for any of these guys. Ryan is a candidate because 2025 was his best season as a pro, but it doesn't mean he actually will regress. He's in his prime, he keeps working on things, so while he might slip back a little, there's little reason to think he won't be very very good. Maybe next season he puts up a 120 ERA+. Technically that's "regression" but, there's little evidence to suggest that he's going to slide back to being more of a league average pitcher or something. Buxton is a candidate only in that he had such an excellent season. But Buck has had season like this before, in fact has been on track for even higher peaks than this excepting that injury screwed him, so outside of him being in his 30's now there's no reason to predict he's going to drop off; it's not like 2025 was a fluke. Clemens is a weird case: 2025 was a career best season for him, but some of that was also related to him getting opportunity. His 2024 doesn't look that much different when you pro-rate it out for a full season. Frankly, we saw the regression from Clemens during the year in 2025 after his hot streak came to a close. It's why so many of us are talking about him as if he should be a borderline case to make the roster and how we really don't want him being handed a starting role in the lineup. SWR is not a case for regression, IMHO. He's only 25 and still figuring things out, but he also keeps getting written off while every time he gets asked to step in he gets the job done. There might be some fluctuation in his stats based on some of the underlying numbers...but there also might be improvement as he continues to refine his pitches and hopefully doesn't lose time & weight to a parasite next season. Give up on SWR at your own risk. Frankly, Keaschall is a bigger risk to regress in 2026; if you're using BABIP against SWR, you'd better use it against Keaschall; dude finished the season with a BABIP of .340, which is at least as unsustainable as SWR's. Keaschall also very much struggled to close the season: .685 OPS the last month or so to end the year was not good and could indicate that opposing pitchers had figured out a way to attack him. Do I think he's going to have a significant regression in 2026? No, because I am very high on him as a player. But he's absolutely a candidate for "most likely to" if that's who we're trying to ID here.
  21. jmlease1
    I mean, the bullpen is decimated to the point where they simply can't stay internal and expect to have a competent bullpen in 2026. so if they plan to force bullpen moves on a lot of guys, we'll know they're not serious about competing in 2026. Unless the Cheap and Incompetent Pohlad ownership sets a payroll level designed to guarantee 8 figure profits for the family and it's new investors, they should have sufficient resources to add some external arms to supplement the internal options. But there's zero reason to trust the Cheap and Incompetent Pohald ownership when it comes to money, unfortunately. It would make sense to shift Raya & probably Preilipp to the bullpen, and Adams and Ohl have already made the move. Do they really need to move anyone else right now? And if the Cheap and Incompetent Pohlads functionally force a trade of Lopez or Ryan then we'll need the starting pitching depth.
  22. jmlease1
    Well, we also didn't have much choice on Vazquez, and his hitting wasn't expected to be quite this awful when we signed him. Vazquez's career OPS+ (after 3 years of really poor hitting with the Twins) is a career high for Rortvedt. Sure, Rortvedt showed signs of life with the Dodgers (and props to him for not only winning a title but actually putting him some offense) but it's a really small sample size. he was so dreadful at the plate for TB that he was basically unplayable. 2024 is the only season Rortvedt has even been a solid backup, really. He's also had a history of struggling to stay on the field. I might have taken a flier on him but at the same time I can't really say anyone who passed on him on waivers was wrong.
  23. jmlease1
    think that was Ted Knight as Judge Smails, but you are correct: you need the solid guys that can just produce as good regulars for 3-5 seasons, even if they never quite reach all-star status. Some of those guys will have a big season one year too and when a few of those guys have a career year at the same time, things get real interesting.
  24. jmlease1
    The ceilings are pretty high on the Twin's top prospects, which is exciting. It's great to have top prospects that are so close to MLB as well, because we need the talent infusion. I hope the Twins don't durdle around with these guys and block them from MLB exposure with washed up veterans or struggling prospects who are on multiple tries to crack MLB too much. If Rodriguez is healthy, he's ready for a shot at MLB, I think. Health is the only thing that seems to hold him back, though I'm sure some fans will (already have?) turn quickly on him because of the K's. But I'd much rather see Emma on the 26-man than Outman. Jenkins making AAA last season was an accomplishment. I'm in less of a rush for him because I would like to see him start a season healthy, and kick butt in AAA at least a little (while he was far from bad, he didn't dominate by a long start). But if he's killing it in spring training, raking in AAA, etc I'd much rather see him in MLB than trying to salvage something from Outman, or even acting like Roden can't be pushed aside. K-Pep had an excellent season. Showed he was worth the first round pick and the defensive quality surprised a lot of evaluators. It'll be interesting to see how aggressive they are with him. Starting him back in Wichita wouldn't be egregious, but it would be exciting to see him get bumped to AAA and have him being pushing Brooks Lee sooner rather than later. Tait is the one we'll need more patience with, I think. He's got a ways to go with his bat, though the pop is good to see. He needs to be more selective at the plate, and there's refinement to be done on his glove as well. But the tools are there. He's so young, I suspect he's back at Cedar Rapids to start, but a midseason bump would be an excellent result for him. he held his own at 18 in high A, that's pretty dang good. Abel is getting to "put up or shut up" range. But the talent is there. He's got an electric arm and you could see in how he dominated in Saint Paul that he's got the ability. He got knocked around in his first try at MLB, but he also had stretches where he stood up. He needs refinement, but he's close. The last step can be a doozy, though.
  25. jmlease1
    in the clubhouse, probably. On the field? while admittedly he hasn't had a lot to work with with guys running the bases, he also had way too many instances of late signals, changing his mind (occasionally changing it multiple times on the same play), etc for fans to feel much confidence in him there. Perhaps players were starting to go, "hey, Tommy, you're a great dude, but..."
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