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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Minor league relief pitching is not a strength of this organization. They may need to look at converting some guys from starting to the bullpen a bit earlier so there's more legit options to draw from in AAA? But I get the concept since developing a starting pitcher is substantially more valuable (and harder to find) than a reliever. Congrats to Ohl. He might be able to find a role as a middle reliever in MLB and we sure need some.
  2. jmlease1
    Great season by GG. Absolutely the right pick here. I'm pretty certainly that having a full healthy season made a real difference for him. He showed he could hit at every level and looks very promising. Would like to see him recover a little of that patience he showed prior to AAA, but the hit tool looks pretty dang good. I suspect the Twins won't start him in MLB in 2026, but I'd sure like him to get a legit chance to win the job. If he pans out, the Polanco trade will look quite good.
  3. jmlease1
    Larnach and Wallner really shouldn't be looked at the same; even in a down season, Wallner has been better and Wallner has been consistently better over his career than Larnach. I don't expect Larnach back, because he's getting expensive and hasn't performed well enough. Do I hope Jenkins, Gonzalez, Rodriguez, and/or Fedko push Wallner to DH? Sure do. But that's also 4 guys with a collective zero AB's in MLB so... Mendez hasn't played over AA, and Culpepper is a SS who hasn't played above AA. Not relevent to a Wallner in 2026 conversation, really. Roden might pan out and will almost certainly get another chance, but so far has been awful at the plate. Outman? I guess he's better defensively than Wallner, but he's never come close to Wallner's peak performance and he's been brutal since his own best season. No thank you. Historically, Wallner absolutely pounds RHP. He's shown he can be very productive, and if he can make the adjustment on high fastballs in particular, he can go back to being a very productive hitter that a certain segment of Twins fans will never like. Next season will be a critical one for Wallner, because it'll be his last pre-arb season. If he turns in another season like this, he might not get tendered, and he has significant prospects coming for his roster spot who have higher ceilings. A great result would be Wallner hitting like he did in 2023-2024 and one or more of Gonzalez, Jenkins, or Rodriguez making it easy to slide him to the DH role.
  4. jmlease1
    Fair, but he has pitched in competitive games and against teams still trying/needing to win. It's a little different than previous years when the roster expansions were so much bigger as well. Again, I'm not saying Adams is a lock or that he's going to be a great reliever. But he's shown enough to be a realistic consideration, someone that could contribute in 2026 and has upside, which is not something the waiver wire dudes bring to the table.
  5. jmlease1
    I'm in on this one. A lot of players are experienced on the system already from the minors, so that will help ease it in. The umpires generally do a really good job, but the ones where they got fooled or had a brain lock or something get exhausting. I think the Twins are being smart about putting the responsibility on the catchers defensively, and it'll be interesting to see how they handle it with the hitters. Might end up being treated a little like stealing bases where certain players have the green light to do it on their own and others do not, and they have to show they know the zone well enough to make the call.
  6. jmlease1
    Easy choice to protect everyone on that list except for maybe Mendez (if you wanted to risk trying to slip him through, since he's still at AA); even Cory Lewis would get grabbed by someone who would stash him in the bullpen and see if they can make it work. But there's 8 easy cuts off the 40-man and probably more like 10, plus we are only actually carrying 39 right now. Which says something about where the roster is...
  7. jmlease1
    Sure, but some of that was when he was still working as a starter/bulk innings guy. Since he's moved into more of a 1-2 inning role, there's been signs of improvement. He might not make the opening day bullpen, but he should be an option for middle relief for next season. At least there's some potential upside there as he adjusts to a new role.
  8. jmlease1
    I hope to never see Cabrera again, but Adams still has some possibilities as a reliever. This was the first meltdown in a while for him and he didn't get any help from his bullpen-mate. Laweryson keeps doing the job, which is nice to see. It's only been 7 innings in dog days of a dead season, but maybe he's found something. I'd certainly prefer to see more from him that the waiver-wire retreads. Bradley did well. This is the guy you signed up for when you traded for him, and he's probably got the inside track for a rotation spot for next season. Since I expect the Cheap Pohlads to force a trade on Lopez and/or Ryan, we'll need him to pitch like this. deGrom is still really good when healthy.
  9. jmlease1
    Julien went back down to AAA and started hitting again. Miranda went down to AAA and has been dreadful. Why would you reward Miranda with more MLB time when he can't touch AAA pitching? but what to do with Miranda is a tough one: he's been brutally bad this season. But showed promise in 2024, including real defensive improvement.
  10. jmlease1
    Ideally, we'd be looking for a RH 1B for the 2026 squad who can punish the hell out of LHP who can hold his own against RHP. Sabato doesn't seem like an internal option (he wasn't great at AAA and seems like organizational depth at this point), and I dunno about Fedko. With 13 position players you're looking at 2 catchers, 6 infielders (2 of which need to be able to cover SS), and 5 OF (2 of which need to be able to cover CF). There's a real question if there's a starting 1B, a backup SS, or a backup catcher in the organization right now. Will the Twins be willing to fill an OF slot out the gate with one of Rodriguez, Jenkins, or Gonzalez (or even Fedko)? Buxton, Martin, and Wallner will be back and I strongly suspect they will give Roden every chance to win a job. I'd certainly rather try the rookies than add a Margot-type, or bring back Larnach. Keaschall, Lee, and Lewis are back for sure at this point...are they really going to roll with Fitz as the backup SS? If they actually sign a solid RH 1B, I don't mind Clemens on this roster backing up 2B/1B/corner OF and being the emergency 3B too. Maybe it's Pereda as the backup catcher, but I'm not putting any expectations on him sustaining this hitting at all. That's a pretty cheap lineup. It's also pretty questionable on scoring runs.
  11. jmlease1
    I'm very surprised to see any consideration of non-tendering Ober. He hasn't had a particularly good season, but while he'll get a raise in arbitration he still won't be all that expensive for a starting pitcher, and we have multiple seasons of quality performance in 2023 and 2024 to show he can be an effective rotation piece. I guess all it takes is one down season some people will throw him on the scrap heap. But there's zero chance the Twins will toss him aside. Larnach seems like a fairly easy arbitration decision: He's getting more expensive, he's a platoon-only player who doesn't even punish RHP that effectively, he adds no defensive value or real positional flexibility (he might be able to learn 1B, but will he be better than even Clemens there?), isn't an impactful baserunner, and seems unlikely to improve next season at 29. It's not like he hasn't gotten opportunities: even with the injuries he's gotten in 1500 ABs or so. Someone might pick him up to be a bench bat who can play corner OF/DH, but they're paying $1-2M, not $4. Twins need to be looking higher. Anthony Misiewicz & Michael Tonkin should also be non-tendered, IMHO. Sorry, but these guys are waiver wire type claims at this point like Hatch. Jeffers, Ryan, Ober, Lewis, and Sands really shouldn't be hard choices right now if it comes down to tender or release. Clemens is the only somewhat challenging decision. You'd like the floor to be higher than him as a hitter, but with an ability to play corner OF, 2B, 1B, and in a pinch 3B...he wouldn't be the worst 26th man the Twins have had by a long shot. As a starting 1B, you need to do better. If he still had an option left, it'd be fairly easy to tender him. He seems to be well-liked, works hard, and is a bit of a glue guy. I wouldn't be terribly outraged either way on this one.
  12. jmlease1
    It's not nonsensical: Twins still don't have a lot of team speed. They guys who are pretty good or better at running have success: Buxton, Keaschall, Lewis. Martin has made some big mistakes and that matters; he's gotten better and with better coaching out there (Seriously, how long are they going to cover for Tommy Watkins?) he should do better, and can at least rack up the steals, but look at guys like Larnach, Wallner, Julien, and Jeffers and tell me this is a team that's good at running? Part of the reason they're being more aggressive is it doesn't matter if they get burned, and the offense is so desperate for runs that trying to play for a crooked number is less likely than ever to happen. So they're trading outs to get a single run to try and get something on the board a lot more. How'd that squeeze play work out last night? That's how you lose baserunning value, trading a runner on 3rd for a runner on 2nd in exchange for an out...
  13. jmlease1
    Because they were much slower and had a lot of guys dealing with injuries? Buxton wasn't healthy, Lewis wasn't healthy, Correa is slow (and had foot issues), Larnach is slow and had turf toe, France was slow, Lee is slow, Jeffers is slow, etc. They've added more speed to the lineup. But it's also easier to be aggressive when it doesn't matter if you lose. Why would you run with the Bomba Squad except with the best of the best? It was not a fast team: Garver, Cron, Schoop, Sano, Cruz, Arraez, Castro...this is not a good base-stealing bunch. Rosario could have maybe run more, but Kepler & Polanco weren't good at it and ran into outs. Look back at last year's squad: who were you excited about trying to swipe bases on that crew outside of Castro (who was quite bad at it in 2024) and Buxton (who we were constantly fearing would go down injured again)? Carlos Santana was opportunistic, but not fast; Jeffers, Miranda, Kepler, Farmer, Vazquez, Kirilloff, Correa, Larnach...not a lot of speed there. Now you've got healthy Buxton & Lewis, Keaschall, and Martin getting consistent time and freedom to run. They're still not sending Brooks Lee, because he's slow.
  14. jmlease1
    well, they did it in '87. Even the playoff roster was only 24 (which is just insane). Hell, the 40-man never went past 36! Talk about Cheap Pohlads. MLB PA would never allow it today, kind of amazed it got by them back then.
  15. jmlease1
    A very good start by Zebby. You had to wonder when he gave up the lead off dinger, but he settled down nicely and threw a very nice game. Sure, he got a little lucky on several hard hit balls being collected by the infield (nice job by Clemens in particular) but he also did a good job throwing strikes and missing some bats. Hope it's nothing serious with Keaschall. It'd be very Twins-ian for a one of the few players to have a good season and a guy giving hope for the future getting hurt at the close. (also, very poor bunt. he's got to push that past the pitcher to give Martin a chance to score.) Texas is having a collapse reminiscent of the Twins from 2024. They had a shot at a playoff berth and bottled it.
  16. jmlease1
    Is this where the conspiracy stories start that anything good that happened for the Twins under this front office were entirely because of Thad, and everything bad is only on Derek?
  17. jmlease1
    They'll be lucky to get a rookie ball prospect for Larnach, which assumes they tender him in the first place. Larnach is poor defender who is unplayable against LHP and doesn't punish RHP enough to be all that great of a platoon option. He's also turning 29. The floor isn't terrible on Larnach, but there's little upside. Festa is out for the start of next season at a minimum. Probably can't count on a guy with Thorassic Outlet Syndrome, even if it's the absolute "best" kind, to play before midseason. IKF is a SS, I guess? But he got traded and then waived, so his future doesn't look so bright to me. Even at $5M, which is a 33% pay cut, he might be out of the Cheap Pohlad budget. But they will need a backup SS of some kind.
  18. jmlease1
    I mean, we might as well speculate about the 2026 roster, since 2025 is cooked and we have no idea how much more the Cheap Pohlads are going to demand be cut, or even if the front office is going to be told that if they want to sign anyone they need to find the salary space internally. But there's no way the Twins go 6 OF and 5 INF, especially when as noted there's no backup SS on the roster. (Arguably, Clemens could play 3B in a pinch...but that's more like desperation than a good idea) Maybe they like Fitz enough to have him be the 6th infielder; he'd certainly be a cheap option and this ownership is all about being cheap. Outman should be Out of the Roster, but if you're betting on the Twins fall for sunk cost fallacy on him, then you have to think Roden starts in AAA or they sell low on Wallner. I see little chance of them filling all the bullpen slots internally. There's likely to be 1 reclamation project signed at a discount and probably one veteran they're hoping has one more good season left in them coming in. I also doubt they're ready to move Prielipp to the bullpen yet or Morris. But Funderburk & Laweryson may get real consideration and I think Ohl and Adams should as well. Sands has been showing that maybe he's not good enough to be a fireman, but he's done enough to be a set-up/finish the game guy. I'd let Topa walk: too many injuries, too inconsistent, starting to get expensive (relatively). I would move Raya in the bullpen, but I honestly don't know if he's ready for MLB after this AAA season.
  19. jmlease1
    We all need to get a re-set on Brock Stewart's value, though. I think it was a bad trade trade because Stewart was worth more to the Twins then and now than Outman is/will be, IMHO. But while talented, his injury history makes him someone that simply can't be counted on to fill a role in almost anyone's bullpen. Dodgers acquired him and he threw 4 times before going on the IL, and it seems unlikely that he'll be on their playoff roster at this point. Are they even going to offer him arbitration for next season? But this is why we got such a nothingburger for Stewart at the deadline. Other MLB teams saw him as a guy who couldn't be counted on. They're not wrong. I do fear that the Twins will fall into the sunk cost fallacy with Outman and treat losing him on the waiver as being worse than spending a roster spot on him, which seems crazy to me. 26-man roster spots have value and that value is higher than Outman. Martin has earned a spot for next season, they're not giving up on Wallner (though maybe they should be thinking about 1B and/or DH for 2026), and thankfully Buxton has a no-trade. That leaves 2-3 spots for the OF, and I would not waste one on Outman. Roden is going to get another shot I'm sure (whether anyone likes it or not) and frankly has more upside at this point even if we all hated the trade that was part of bringing him here.
  20. jmlease1
    I think it's because Fedko is the new shiny toy that hasn't had the chance to fail and disappoint us yet. I agree that Fedko should (and probably is) be behind Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and Jenkins in the pecking order for Twins OF prospects, but I understand the desire to move on from guys who look like Quad-A or retreads to someone that might provide hope and/or excitement.
  21. jmlease1
    I think there is, because if you strip out all of the veterans who make any money at all and implode the rotation the same way they imploded the bullpen, there's zero chance of the bounce back season, the overachieving squad like 2017, etc. And from a roster/player development side, just going with a bunch of rookies puts you with no floor at all. There's still a difference between being bad (which we are) and hopeless (colorado). We're rebuilding and should be looking at it that way, but when you also consider how MLB has disincentivized utterly sucking for 3-4 seasons in a row, what's the benefit to guaranteeing you'll stink? It's so hard to find starting pitching that's actually good and consistently good. I guess I look at dealing Ryan (and potentially Lopez) and seeing a future where the team could easily be awful for the next 2-3 seasons even if Walker Jenkins really is Captain America. Or Culpepper is the team-grown locked in SS we've dreamt about.
  22. jmlease1
    Because he wasn't on the 40-man yet? Because we wouldn't have learned that much about him in such a short span and we might as well find out if Outman can be fixed? (seems like no) Because putting any of the stink of the 2025 Twins on Fedko in september would have caused the fans around here to turn on him immediately if he had a bad week? Because Fedko started the season in AA and this is the first time in his pro career he's had immediate success upon promotion, so maybe making him prove it at AAA isn't crazy? I have little interest in Outman, but I don't really think they've done Fedko dirty here, who has still only played 42 games in AAA in his entire life.
  23. jmlease1
    That would certainly guarantee we're the worst team in the league
  24. jmlease1
    Agreed. Roden will and probably should get another look; while he's flunked out so far in MLB, it's literally his first taste of it and he's crushed AAA. While I was unimpressed with Roden's time in CF, the Twins seemed to think he could play there, so at the very least he should be a plus defender in a corner. But McCusker and Kiersey are organizational filler, and really shouldn't even be on the 40-man. Despite Outman's ability to run into the occasional homer, he's been pretty bad for the Twins and should not be given any serious consideration for a job, and at 28 should be looking at a minor league deal. Martin is a nice floor-raiser. (and that's important!) If the Twins go young, he's a nice 4th OF to protect guys like Rodriguez & Jenkins from tough LHP who will get on base any way he can and has the speed to do something when he gets there (even with the baserunning mistakes). He's going to avoid outs and can lead off or get you baserunners at the bottom of the order, and that's useful. Martin makes it easier for the Twins to move Wallner to DH or 1B if they're inclined. He sets the floor for what should be acceptable in the OF next season at a level that is at least solid, as opposed to incompetent or one-sided. This presumes that this season is more of who he is as opposed to 2024 Martin, but it doesn't seem unreasonable.
  25. jmlease1
    They're at like $90M in payroll commitments if they bring everyone back and pay projected raises in arbitration. I believe this also includes the $10M we're paying on Correa's contract (which you know Twins ownership will include in any payroll limits). Dump Lopez and Ryan and replace with minimum salary players and we're still looking at over $60M, which is basically the floor unless Buxton waives his no-trade. (I am not advocating for Buck to waive his no-trade, and I hope he finishes his career as a Twin, even if the team is a mess right now with horrible ownership)
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