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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I hope he can figure it out. I do love that change-up.
  2. jmlease1
    It was not unreasonable to be concerned when a college bat has a near total power outage at High A and looks dreadful at the plate. He wasn't stinging balls and just getting unlucky: he looked legitimately bad. Sure, it's a small sample, but it was cause for concern. (and the K rate at Cedar Rapids was slightly above 20%, and a big jump from Ft. Myers) He's off to an excellent start so far, and if he continues to show he can do damage when given a good pitch to drive, then he'll be in good shape. Interesting to see Amick off to a hot start; I wasn't sure he was going to get promoted to AA after fighting injuries and falling off in the second half last season, and then looking atrocious in the AFL. But he's responded nicely and I'll be interested to see where his season ends up. Don't mind him splitting time between 3B and 1B at all, either.
  3. jmlease1
    I think we're allowed to feel some positivity over Bradley. I don't think most people are saying "mission accomplished", but Bradley has never had a start to his season this good before. The fact that he's kept the ball in the park is an encouraging sign, and while he's had a three game stretch like this before...it's been unusual. People have also overrated how good Jax was: he had 1 dominant season as a reliever (2024) and 3 others where he was a quality reliever, but hardly elite. last season we spent a lot of time talking about how unlucky Jax was, and how the results weren't matching the underlying numbers...but the reality was, Jax was more hittable in 2025 and looked a lot more like the dude from 2022 or 2023 than 2024, even if his K numbers were elite. I'm sure Jax's performance will improve, but he also might just a good but not elite reliever.
  4. jmlease1
    Sometimes the change of scenery matters. Communication styles aren't meshing or the messages start sounding like Miss Othmar from Peanuts. And while TB may be a well-run organization that's been very skilled at trading away players at the right time and finding assets in other organizations, it doesn't mean they don't have their own patterns and ways of doing business that can't be exploited by teams who are taking a different angle. It's why you should never be afraid to trade with a team simply because of their reputation (I've seen people say you shouldn't trade with the Dodgers because they're "too smart" as well): everyone misses things, and players that struggle under one plan could succeed under a different design. It sounds like TB wanted him to move off his splitter, and from what we've seen of it here in MN, it's a real weapon. That could be based on organizational philosophy in TB, or it could be the coaches working with Bradley here in MN were better able to make the adjustments with him needed to make it that weapon. You never know about fit. And sometimes a trade really focuses things for a player and changes their attitude and focus about their career.
  5. jmlease1
    A very nice win. Props to the Twins offense for working counts and really making Skubal work (and he was definitely not very comfortable in the cold weather; he even got a pitch clock violation because he was spending so much time trying to keep his hand warm). Bradley looked really good, again. His stuff is excellent, the pitch mix is strong...as long as he's commanding his pitches and finishing off batters efficiently then he's a really good pitcher. Seems like there might be a little bit of a shift in bullpen usage for the Twins: they appear to be more interested in matchups vs having a pitcher start an inning "clean" this season? This may be tied to having more LHP in the bullpen, maybe it's just a bit of a fluke, but it seems like we're seeing more guys get 2 outs to finish an inning and then come out to get one more the next inning than we used to. Curious to see how that trend goes? Twins continue to get the barrage of LH starters. Hopefully they can continue to survive it...
  6. jmlease1
    Nothing new: people buying those expensive tickets aren't bothering to show up for a frozen game with a team that doesn't look very good. But Twins aren't unique on this problem. How many parents do you think were at this game with kids out of the tiny amount that showed up? I'm guessing they didn't want to freeze their butts off either and if they did show a bunch left at the first complaint from the kids about being cold and/or bored...
  7. jmlease1
    I don't think they're that afraid of Martin/Roden covering CF; they had Martin do it once this season already. I think this is the old "don't let an asset get away for nothing" fear (they're missing that he's just not an asset), coupled with the sunk cost fallacy on Outman. It's a failure of process to be sure (and we're hardly unique on it in MLB) but I was hoping this might be one of the things that could change under Zoll. So far? Not so much. How much more rope does Outman get? Considering how we've already seen this guy be garbage last season, it doesn't feel like a hasty decision to boot him from the roster. Roden doesn't fix the issue of too many LH bats on the roster, but at least he might be able to add something.
  8. jmlease1
    A good win, but with several nervous moments. Ryan wasn't particularly sharp, but only got burned in the 4th. But as a result, he didn't go deep like you'd like to see. Lee's error wasn't great, but Ryan isn't some rookie to get flustered by one baserunner, and your best pitcher should be able to pick up your infield occasionally, right? Bigger issue was 101 pitches through 5. That's not efficient enough in finishing guys off. But he kept us in the game. Dodged a huge bullet with Funderburk's walks; he was definitely off and was missing the plate by a lot. Props to Laweryson for slamming the door. Nice to see the offense come alive. 10 hits and 7 walks had better get you a W. Was worried it was going to be a WTF game when they loaded the bases with 1 out in the 2nd and couldn't get a run, but they did a bit better with some timely hitting. Good to see Lewis have a smart game with 2 walks and a hit, Buck was swinging the bat pretty well, Wallner and Larnach both had 2 hits which was good as well. Outman, on the other hand...yikes. Finally gets another start, does nothing with it. Only 9 games, but he looks lost at the plate. As much as I look to have been wrong about Larnach so far, I've been right about Outman being trash. Bring up Roden and give him some real run. I'm pretty sure Outman passes through waivers if for some reason the Twins feel inclined to keep him.
  9. jmlease1
    for us (a team that's going nowhere this year) I suppose that's true, but for a title hopeful, they're going to need more than just solid production vs RHP to make adding Larnach (as opposed to someone else) worth making the move for. I'd say building up Larnach for a trade is the best we can hope for here. Yes, he can help the Twins this year over some of the other current LH bats on the roster, but he has little to no future here and there's a real question of whether an average Larnach season comes close to the kind of production we could get from one of the many prospect options his roster spot is blocking. It also doesn't matter if Jeffers, Lee, and Lewis are hitting under .200 as it pertains to Larnach's spot on the roster: Larnach can't play catcher, SS, or 3B. It doesn't even matter much that Outman or Buxton can't buy a hit, since Larnach can't play CF either. And since we've never seen Larnach play 1B, Clemens (unsurprising) struggles at the plate don't matter than much for him either. If you want to argue for Larnach over Wallner, I guess you can (there's no shortage of people who will jump on the anti-Wallner bandwagon, so you won't be alone), but Wallner has a stronger track record.
  10. jmlease1
    I think it's more about making sure they keep Arcia ready to play in MLB if they need an early-season call-up in the infield and aren't ready to put that on Culpepper than worrying about keeping Arcia happy. I suspect they would prefer to call up Culpepper when they think he has both the opportunity and readiness to stick in MLB if he performs, rather than bounce him up and down. So far I think they've handled Culpepper pretty well: 8 games, he's gotten 5 starts at SS, 2 at 3B, and 1 at 2B. While I think he's likely to come up at SS, I don't mind seeing him get some reps at other spots in the INF to see how he handles it and to keep his bat in the lineup. He's doing everything right (again). Team has to be pleased with his development. There was a fair case to be made for him to start the season in AA (he only played 59 games there last season, and had 139 games as a pro, total, going into 2026), but the Twins have been aggressive in promoting him and he's responded incredibly well to the challenge. Hope he keeps it up!
  11. jmlease1
    It depends on how he does; if he's healthy and mashing against RHP then there could be a nice market from a playoff team looking to shore up a weakness with a platoon bat. (and while Larnach hasn't been good in the OF the last couple of seasons, if he's healthy he's not going to embarrass anyone out there. Teams have played worse OF) The problem with Larnach has been he hasn't actually mashed RHP enough: a career OPS of .762 vs RHP doesn't exactly excite anyone. If he's still in the .850 range at midseason, the value proposition on him changes. But you're right that it is a very small sample, and it shows some of the limitations of this roster: only 16 PA's in 7 games is tiny, and it's hard to make an impact if you can't get on the field more often. Maybe the cavalcade of LH starters will subside and we'll see more Larnach?
  12. jmlease1
    Nice to see a bunch of guys hitting in Cedar Rapids. Frankly, a pretty good day for most of the top prospects across the system. Morris didn't go deep, but was otherwise effective. Hope this fast start for Houston is a sign that his off-season work has been effective and he's making the necessary adjustments to succeed at the plate. I'll admit I've been skeptical about his bat, and I'd love to be wrong because the glove is legit. Nice to see him rip a homer; I don't need him to be a power hitter or anything, just enough of a threat that pitchers can't groove fastballs on him when they get down in a count because they know he can't do any damage to them. Quick start at the plate for Winokur, which is good as well. He's been wobbly at 3B so far, and you do wonder if his future really is in the OF, so it's good he's also playing CF. But I don't mind him splitting time between 3B & CF right now.
  13. jmlease1
    SWR did well at least? I'm still a fan of his, and right now he's looking like the hard-luck starter, which is a bummer. Camineiro's dinger was one that few hitters can do, and most good hitters wouldn't have swung at that pitch let alone golfed it out. Always nice to see Wallner crack one. Too bad no one else really showed up on offense. Serious indictment of Outman for him not to get the start in CF, IMHO. Wondering if the front office and the manager on the same page regarding him? (I'm not complaining if Shelton is refusing to start him) Tough job by the bullpen, but when the offense is this somnolent expecting them to hold thing down forever is unrealistic. That said...yeesh, Topa.
  14. jmlease1
    Abel is definitely reminding everyone that spring training stats mean nothing. I wouldn't send him down yet, though. I'd like to see how he does with warmer weather and show him a little more faith. It's not like this is a team that anyone should expect to be in the playoffs, and it's definitely not a playoff team if younger players aren't contributing, so this is a time to give a player like Abel more leash. The roster construction really doesn't give this team much room for error against LHP. It's not great. Outman certainly isn't helping (though his replacement options aren't going to help against LHP much) and I think it's notable how little he's actually playing. Only 1 start (and that was because of injury) and 20 innings. I'd say even the Twins staff knows that he's not a real player. Probable black mark on Zoll for keeping him on this roster, and we're almost certainly stuck with him through at least april unless he gets a mystery injury like the legendary NBA "sore back" trick.
  15. jmlease1
    So far two guys I didn't want on the roster are playing pretty well: Larnach and Gray. It's early, but Twins are looking like they knew what they were doing in keeping those two. We'll see if it holds? Ober is concerning. His changeup was great and the sweeper is very effective, but I just don't know if he can eat up enough innings with this version of his fastball, which is more of a medium ball right now. Maybe when the weather warms up a bit? We'll need the other guys in the rotation to go deeper in games if this ends up being where Ober is I'm afraid. Caminero is having a rough start to it for TB; feels like they changed that second error to hit for Keaschall on some kind of mercy rule so that he might not lead SportsCenter with a "guess who had 7 errors in 7 games!" He's poor fielder (18 errors last season! yikes) but this is brutal.
  16. jmlease1
    Excited to see how Tait progresses this season. Cedar Rapids is the right place for him to be right now, and it'd be fun if he develops right along with some of those high upside starters they have there and follows them through the minors. A battery of Dasan Hill to Eduardo Tait would be sweet! I'm not too worried about where his CS numbers are in A-ball; even with a plus arm it's hard to judge when the pitchers aren't really working on holding runners on. Hopefully he has some good progress receiving and blocking pitches and refines his approach at the plate. I'd have no complaints with him spending the season in Cedar Rapids and moving to AA next year. Dude is young and catching is hard.
  17. jmlease1
    A reminder to take minor league awards and stolen base totals with a grain of salt. possibly an entire block. At least one prospect evaluator was not particularly enamored of his D last season, and A-ball pitchers don't hold runners (and A-ball catchers frequently don't have rifles for arms, they have shotguns...)
  18. jmlease1
    Nice start to the season for DeBarge, who really struggled at the plate in the second half of the season in Cedar Rapids. Hopefully this gives him some confidence and whatever offseason work he did helps him be an impact bat all year. He's got some tools I like, but the total power outage and collapse of his batting average last season was concerning to the point that I wasn't sure he would get moved up. It'll be interesting to see if he's still running wild on the bases? Ben Ross was an interesting prospect, but his career really stalled out at AA when he simply couldn't hit enough. This is his 4th spin at the AA wheel, and it's a reminder that even if you can really pick it, if you can't show something with the bat down in AA you don't have a lot of future. He did a nice job in the AFL after the 2024 season...and then turned in another turkey at the plate in 2025. Maybe this will be the year he figures it out? He's almost 25 and it's starting to get late early... Curious to see how Mendez does and how much time he gets at 1B? He did great when he came over, and I wondered if he was going to get bumped to Saint Paul. I think if he has a fast start we'll see him get the midseason promotion for sure. Interesting bat, and lord knows we could use someone with a future at 1B. Of course, he's another LH bat...
  19. jmlease1
    I think people forget that Jax has had exactly one great season in relief. His other 3 seasons relieving (before this ugly start to 2026) he was a good reliever, not a great one. Reliever stats can vary wildly and there's simply not as many guys who are great year after year. I expect Jax to do far better than this in 2026, but I won't be shocked at all if he's not looked at as a potential closer ever again. Starters are easier to predict and project. Still too early to be sure Bradley has figured it out (and most pitchers need to continually evolve to sustain success anyways) but it's a good start. And trading relievers for starters is generally a very good idea.
  20. jmlease1
    No clear evidence on this one: Bradley had a clean 5th, with only 11 pitches. He's a starter who has gone deep in games before, but usually when he's been very efficient. But he's thrown over 100 pitches in a game before. If the Twins were coming off an off-day (or heading into one), Bradley might have gotten lifted after 5, but they wanted/needed the extra inning. I suspect the decision remains the same regardless of the manager, especially since Pete Maki is still here. Taj did well. It's been a good start to his season. The more he can avoid those innings where he really labors and throws 25-30 pitches, the better he'll do. Efficient Bradley is effective Bradley. Nice to see the late dingers for the Twins. Sure, it'd be nice to get them early, but you take them whenever you can. (and Cruz was a solid pitcher for KC last season, a reminder of just how fungible relievers can be year over year)
  21. jmlease1
    Witt is an MVP contender, and I will fear Sal Perez forever. That turkey could be stuck in an 083 slide and I still would be terrified of him coming up against the Twins. Cannot wait for his ass to retire and stop torturing us...
  22. jmlease1
    Hard to complain about 6 shutout today. I hope this is the real Taj Bradley, they guy they hoped for when they traded for him. that would be very fun.
  23. jmlease1
    I'm a big fan of Bradley's. the ceiling is pretty high, but the consistency hasn't been there. If the tweaks to his pitch mix (improving the splitter, shifting the cutter to a slider) take hold and let him find that consistency, then he could have a very good season. Can't say I've been sad to see his velocity playing up a bit too. He did some good things in the first start, and it would be great to see him build off it.
  24. jmlease1
    be Baseball Jesus? But seriously: scouts will almost never grade someone out at the top of the range because they don't want to look foolish if they're wrong. Putting someone at a 65 power grade and then having them show out the best power hitter in 20 years doesn't get you fired, but marking someone at a 75 and having them fall flat will. They're always going to be conservative, especially with a tool that's harder to quantify. With speed they can measure foot speed and comp it better. With power? lot more moving pieces.
  25. jmlease1
    Boras is never going to engage in extension talks for Walker Jenkins unless Jenkins orders him to do it or be fired. Now, players change representation all the time, but there's usually something behind it, and there's no indicators that Walker Jenkins is unhappy with his representation, and as a high draft choice, has less need to get an extension put in place: he's got money, enough that he doesn't need to do things like room with another player unless he wants to, and certainly doesn't need to work another job in the offseason. Jenkins has also been rising fast and well in the minors, so there's little chance of him busting before reaching MLB, and the MLB minimum salary is now pretty damn significant as well. It's pretty easy to see why Walker Jenkins would listen to his agent if they said "you don't need an extension, you're going to make a lot more money if you wait, and you're going to have a lot more control if you go to free agency." It might not be best for the Twins or what fans want, but neither of those parties has Walker Jenkins and his life as their number one priority. (you can argue that the agents are just as self-involved as anyone and care more about the payday than the player, but as long as the agent only gets paid if the player gets paid, they're going to have the advantage in the "trust me" category.) Boras wants his clients to go to free agency. he thinks it's better for them individually, and the players collectively. YMMV on whether that's true or not, but he's had a lot of success and has a very strong reputation for getting players paid. I suspect more players leave his firm because they start feeling like they're less of a priority or they want more hands on work from the principal rather than a junior, more than "Boras didn't do right by me on my contract". He clearly wants multiple teams bidding on a player, and wants the teams that have the most resources to be in play. he cares nothing for competitive balance, the woes of smaller market teams, the wants of a fanbase...none of it. Not his job, not his problem. (this gets wobblier when he and other agents try to control the CBA negotiations, but again YMMV) Bottom line: Walker Jenkins ain't signing an early extension. The best we might see if a buy-out of arbitration years (if those still exist in the next CBA) at roughly market-rates to get to FA, providing cost certainty. But still it's unlikely.
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