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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    This. They tried moving him at the deadline this year and they couldn't make it work. Maybe that's because the Twins wanted too much, maybe that's because no one was interested. (I'm guessing it was more the latter than the former, but YMMV) What are the odds they can trade him after he's gotten an arbitration tender and there are more guys on the market? Or after they settle with him for $4M+? You're essentially making a pretty big bet that he can hit as least as well as he did in 2024, despite it looking like an outlier season. I think he'll be hard to move as a league average-ish LH hitter who can't play against LHP at all, whose best position looks like DH, and adds nothing on the bases. (the increased aggression the Twins showed on the bases after the deadline didn't help Larnach, who remained slow of foot as always) He's going to turn 29 before next season begins. Hard to see him getting better. And with the Cheap Pohlads in charge, we need the $4.5M
  2. jmlease1
    To clarify, I meant to say that a tear down like this would mean they wouldn't be competitive until 2028 at the earliest. Especially since I'm more of the opinion that they won't be getting guys back that will be ready for MLB in 2026 or possibly even 2027 as the key components of any deals. (more Tait than Bradley, you know?) But who knows what they get back at this point. The uncertainty of prospects makes it an issue for sure.
  3. jmlease1
    I think the most likely scenario is that there will be more tear down in dealing Lopez and/or Ryan for more prospects, with some/all of that "savings" being allowed to be plowed back into the roster as they sell hopium to the fans in their usual tone-deaf way. Maybe Buxton waives his no-trade to a team like Atlanta if they dump Lopez, Ryan, Jeffers, and Larnach...but I don't think they actually want to move Buxton. They probably think he sells tickets all by himself (and they might be right) I also don't there's any real chance they move Lewis; they're unlikely to sell low, which is what this would be, and he's hardly expensive for where the ceiling is. Yes, he makes more than league minimum, but even the Cheap Pohlad will pay some players more than league minimum. Not liking these scenarios much at all. If the debt is paid off, there's really no reason this franchise can't support a payroll in the $125M range and turn a profit, which would allow them to keep the pitching and still invest $30M back into the payroll. If Lopez gets moved, that would open up $50M that could be invested, which would certainly allow them to add a bat at 1B/DH, a backup catcher/SS, and 2-3 veteran bullpen arms, which could make this a credible roster around guys like Buxton, Ryan, Keaschall, Jeffers, Ober, SWR, and Lewis...but would still need young players to step up again and some veterans (like Lewis) to improve/return to form/stay healthy.
  4. jmlease1
    Larnach will certainly get signed by someone for 2026 if he's on the market, but it seems unlikely anyone will be interested in paying him $4.5M or more. I just don't know how much of a trade market there is for him if the Twins tender him, because no one is going to want to actually go to arbitration with him, so dealing for him would require something of an understanding with his agent that he'll settle in the $2-3M range if they go get him, but even then...what are you going to get for him? Larnach is unplayable against LHP, he's a below average defender in the corners, he's 28, and he doesn't punish RHP the way you'd like to see from a platoon bat. He doesn't add anything on the bases either. That's a fairly low floor, unfortunately. I think the acquisition of Outman (blegh) and especially Roden are a signal that Larnach's days are numbered. I think he gets non-tendered, and should get non-tendered, but this front office has shown a propensity for refusing to let go of an "asset" without compensation, even if it means blocking other players.
  5. jmlease1
    Not that I trust or believe the Pohlads on anything financial, but my recollection is that they leaked that they were set to lose $30M on the $142M payroll from 2025, not $100M. (I don't think anyone should believe a pro sports owner on financials without an audited financial statement in hand and an independent expert to explain it all to you, but I highly doubt even the poorly run Twins franchise could have lost $100M in 2025, even including the interest payments on the debt they loaded on (which would likely be in the $10-25M range, depending on what kind of rates they could negotiate)
  6. jmlease1
    This level of extreme tear down would be incredibly stupid and greedy, guaranteeing that the Twins will not only not be competitive in 2026, but likely but uncompetitive until 2028 at the earliest. It's a shockingly terrible idea that would be highly destructive for baseball in MN, while fattening the already insanely wealthy Pohlad Clan's bottom line. Therefore, it seems like an extremely likely possibility. If there's a short-sighted, greedy, anti-fan pathway for the franchise to take, you're unlikely to lose betting on the Pohlads to take it. Even if the Twins get very good returns on a further razing of the roster, they're unlikely to get players that will be ready to contribute in 2026, 2027 is going to get screwed up with a lockout (which will not help player development), so we're looking at 2028 as the earliest possible turnaround IMHO. Of course, the front office will get fired by then as the next PR move, so that'll make some people happy?
  7. jmlease1
    Do you? It means "a guy can be signed off the street and provide as good results". That sounds like Cabrera, who is an easy non-tender. Good effort to meet the goal of trying to make a case for why the Twins might tender him. But as noted by Seth in the article...he's an easy non-tender.
  8. jmlease1
    Who was predicting Julien might compete for a batting title, and can we get them help? 20-25 homers, maybe, but a high batting average was never part of Julien's profile.
  9. jmlease1
    It's a fairly thin list, which says a lot about how the Twins season went. I'd vote Martin. He's gone from being bad defensively everywhere to letting his athleticism shine in LF and getting better at everything he did at the plate. Without Clemens hot stretch, no one would be talking about him at all. But he did have that run and it did actually happen.
  10. jmlease1
    One of the most depressing articles in Twins Daily history.
  11. jmlease1
    If you think the problem with Twins hitting is not rolling out the same batting order and lineup every day, then I really don't know what to tell you.
  12. jmlease1
    Next season is the real "make or break" for Lee. He was touted as a hitter, and his minor league profile showed a player who looked like he'd be able to hit for average with a decent amount of pop in his bat, while having the potential for plus defense at 3B and at least good at 2B, while being solid enough at SS to back up the position. So far, he's really struggled at the plate. His contact skills deserted him in the second half of the season, and while he's shown he can turn on a pitch and drop it into the seats when someone leaves a fastball out there for him, he's not spraying the line drives we saw in the minors and racking up singles and doubles. Maybe that's a response to a heavier diet of better offspeed pitches, or maybe he hasn't really gotten back from the back injury, but whatever it is, he need to find some changes and hit better. I'm disappointed in his defense, but he at least makes the right choices out there. But it's fairly clear to me that unless something improves significantly, he can't stick at SS as a starter. Even if his hitting improves, he looks like a utility player to me, albeit with the potential to be a really good one. He doesn't have the upside that Lewis does at 3B, or that Keaschall has at 2B. But he's got to hit. Needs to barrel up the ball more often, swing harder, and be more disciplined at the plate. He's going to get every chance to show he can do it in 2026 (no way does Culpepper start with the Twins), but Culpepper will be in Saint Paul and if he has a strong start and shows he's ready to get a look...he should get a look. Houston is an excellent defender at SS, but has a lot to do as a hitter. He's a long way off to me, no matter how good the defense is
  13. jmlease1
    I think I'd like to see someone with some managerial experience, especially with all the young players we have coming up, but if you're going to pick someone who doesn't than a former catcher like Suzuki is a pretty reasonable choice. Most ex-MLB players don't go spend years working in the minors or sitting on someone's bench it seems. So if having high-level playing experience is a criteria, you're unlikely to get the managerial experience. I doubt Suzuki is the only contender on the list that Falvey pretended he didn't already have started.
  14. jmlease1
    I keep seeing this, and I don't understand why people seem to be convinced this is going to be an issue. They haven't been approved yet because there hasn't been an ownership meeting where they could be approved. There really isn't any urgency here, and I'm unclear why anyone thinks they won't be approved; basically the only way they won't be approved to be minority investors is if they're so effin' shady as to embarrass MLB (nigh-impossible) or are overtly engaged in gambling or illicit behavior. Unless it's money from a betting site, porn, or the mob MLB will approve it.
  15. jmlease1
    SWR & Austin Martin definitely seized their opportunities, but unfortunately both of them had issues that kept them off the field (Martin with the bum hammy and SWR with the lengthy illness). I'm much less enthusiastic about Clemens, who looks like an ok-ish bench player, a floor-setter who is fairly cheap and plays hard with solid defensive flexibility...but is also very streaky and limited as a hitter. I'd say Martin profiles best as a 4th OF (especially if his OF defense improves), but could be a real asset as a RH bat with some speed. SWR still has the most upside, and the floor on him as a 4th/5th starter sets the bar pretty well. He put up 2.2 bWAR this season which would have put him 2nd for both Detroit & Cleveland among their starters and 3rd with Milwaukee (the team most people seem to want us to emulate the most). My point being that these 3 playoff teams would have been thrilled to have him as their 4th starter. If SWR had been on the Mets, they likely make the playoffs. (oof, Manaea & Montas...) Keaschall certainly seized his opportunities; hope his lack of health this season is a fluke and not a trend. It certainly wasn't enough. Gasper, Outman, Larnach, Julien, Lee (really disappointed in Lee, who wasn't good enough defensively and isn't hitting anywhere near enough) all got real chances and none of them came through. Not ready to give up on Lee yet, but...
  16. jmlease1
    I'd be rather amazed if they get the team back up to $120M in payroll; I'm anticipating a $100M payroll or so, with the front office being told (behind closed doors of course) that if they want to spend more they'll have to trade away more salary. This will likely lead to Lopez & Ryan being dealt, mostly for prospects, and the front office spreading around $30M or so on 3-5 free agents to fill holes at 1B, backup catcher, possibly backup SS, and adding some veteran arms to the bullpen that are more than just waiver-wire fodder. Fans will then be told to appreciate how much investment the team has made in the 2026 squad. I do not think this will work, unless quite a few rookies/young players get substantial playing time and are all good at the same time. If we get a $120M payroll, I expect similar action, with only 1 of Lopez/Ryan being dealt. I suspect results will be better, but not playoff-worthy. I see absolutely zero chance the ownership will set a payroll higher than $120M. Zero. They were leaking that the team was going to lose $30M with last season's payroll before the fire sale & salary dump, and while I don't think anyone should ever believe anything the Pohlad's say about money without proof and a forensic accountant, that was a signal that they ain't spending $140M on this team again. I think there's better than even odds that we have a payroll closer to $80M than $100M, and that both Lopez & Ryan are traded, with $10-$20M being spent on dumpster-diving FA's, mostly at backup catcher and in the bullpen. If I had the opportunity to speaking with Joe Pohlad or Derek Falvey in public setting, in front of reporters, I'd love to lay out these scenarios, and conclude with "Prove me wrong."
  17. jmlease1
    He's getting on base at a lower clip than Austin Martin and hitting for about the same amount of power (almost none), with less speed and can only play one position in the field (and doesn't play it all that well; dude is not big and can't exactly stretch for much). Yes, he gets hits: singles. By basically any metric he was significantly better in 2022 & 2023 than he was in 2024 or 2025. He swings at everything and pitchers know they don't have to fear him, but most of the time the worst that happens is they give up a single. Look, he's not a bad player, but Arraez is deeply limited and the league knows it. It's why SD was trying to move off his contract and why he's going to be a free agent after this season. It's great that his knees have held up enough to keep him on the field, but there's a reason he's limited to almost exclusively playing 1B or DH now. Mendez isn't ready yet, but trying to fill the 1B slot with Arraez seems like a poor use of very limited resources, especially if you want to pay him like he's Buxton. Hells bells, why not just slide Larnach over there if you really want to keep a slow LH who can't hit LHP?
  18. jmlease1
    I think it's a fair list. I'd probably put SF over Texas, but YMMV. Reasonable argument to put DC over us, but I really don't have any feel for how out on the team people in DC are these days and whether there's the sort of fury against ownership out there for their incompetence like we have here. Some people might prefer the East to the Midwest, other managerial prospects might see MN as having a better chance to win, even with our idiot owners. Overall, seems about right. Rockies are in very bad shape, Angels are a mess and have differently bad ownership...maybe the Twins job is more attractive than Baltimore? They've got a strong tradition in Balto and finally have new ownership...but new ownership is unpredictable and the AL East is historically the toughest by far. It's a midpack job, not the most attractive by a long shot, not the worst either. There will be quality options...will the Twins take one, or go back to the country club mentality and promote of the minor league guys?
  19. jmlease1
    SD was trying to dump Arraez's salary at the start of this season and found no takers. He responded by having a 2nd consecutive poor season, and now you want to give him a long-term deal for more money? Sure, he'd help the offense a little with a single almost every game, but he has almost no pop in his bat, little speed, doesn't walk, and he's barely a competent 1B. Paying him $15M per season on a 3-year deal looks like a massive overpay for a player with terrible knees. But hey, he was a popular former Twin that this front office traded away, so of course we should bring him back. 🙄 At least Clemens would be cheap and can do more than just DH/1B. (still not a great solution) Arraez is looking at deals more like what Solano used to get (adjusted for inflation): 1 year $5M. It'll be interesting to see if pride keeps him from taking one, but I don't see many teams itching to give him a multi-year deal.
  20. jmlease1
    The other part of the formula (which still works today, really) is having several of your regulars all have career/healthy seasons at the same time, while your stars have healthy & typical years. But that's luck more than a plan. ('87: Gagne, Straker, Berenguer all have career-type seasons and Brunansky & Blyleven re-finds their form for one last season, while Viola, Puckett, and Hrbek carry their share of the load as top guys) ('91: Tapani, Pagliarulo, Leius, Davis, Willis and Erickson all have career-type seasons with Morris coming in and rookie Knoblauch coming in with Aguilera, Mack, Puckett, Hrbek, and Gagne doing what's expected) You could see it a little with the Twins in 2023, when Julien, Miranda, and Wallner were all good at the same time, or the Bomba Squad (career seasons from Garver, Kepler, Sano, Odorizzi) When you don't have an extra $50-100M to spend on proven veterans to fill out your squad, you're hoping that several of your good but not great players get hot and stay healthy at the same time. Part of what really makes an all-star player a star is being able to do it year in and year out.
  21. jmlease1
    Interesting! Makes me wonder how many other ailments we see professional athletes deal with have a similar diagnosis structure? It certainly would explain the "why did it take them so long to figure this out?!?" aspect with some injury/treatment plans. Really hope this works out well for Festa. This is a significant condition that in more serious versions has ended promising careers, and it's always a shame for a player to have a promising career get wiped out by injury. I've been reluctant to consider Festa a rotation or even bullpen option for 2026 with this diagnosis, even with the revelation that it wasn't one of the more severe variants. This does make me look at it differently.
  22. jmlease1
    I would say that Joe Pohlad had absolutely no clue that he has zero credibility with Twins fans. It's possible that "short-term pain" is just a reference to the fire sale of 2025 and how this team fell apart the last couple of seasons. But why should any Twins fan believe that? It's much more likely that it refers to further payroll cuts for 2026 and losing more veteran players like Lopez, Ryan, and/or Jeffers. They've given us no reason to believe otherwise, and seem to think we should all just be happy sheep, grateful that the Pohlads allow us to have a team to watch at all. That comes out meaner that maybe intended; as absurdly rich people the current generations of the Pohald family don't seem like bad people...but they're staggeringly tone-deaf, out of touch, and quite poor at running a professional baseball team. Joe Pohlad seems to think that a few public statements, a friendly interview or two, and firing the manager is all it will take to bring fans around. Joe Pohlad, once again, is very very wrong.
  23. jmlease1
    You think the Twins will let him get exposed to the Rule 5? A bit risky, that. There's enough chaff to be cleared that I suspect he gets protected. Regardless, I don't think he's going to be on the Opening Day roster. He should be learning 1B in AAA and proving that he can hit enough to be worth calling up. He's also probably not a fit to partner with LH Kody Clemens, though Mendez did hit LHP just fine in 2025 (in a small sample). I think moving him to 1B now is a good idea. But Mendez responded very well to his first turn in AA and played well in both Philly & MN. Seems like little reason to send him back to Wichita, especially if he plays well in the AFL. But seems like little chance he'll start the season in MLB.
  24. jmlease1
    Berrios wouldn't have stabilized anything in 2022; he was bad. Would he have been useful in 2023 & 2024? Sure, but then we wouldn't have had Pablo Lopez because to give Berrios the contract he demanded would have meant there wouldn't have been money for Lopez. In this case it wasn't a pure salary dump, because they actually reinvested the resources, and SWR has done a lot already to replace Berrios' production in the last 2 seasons. And if we hadn't given Berrios the deal, he would have been gone by 2023 and we wouldn't have Berrios or SWR. You seem bound and determined not to acknowledge SWR's contributions. It's weird.
  25. jmlease1
    When someone's FIP goes up but their ERA goes down, while their WHIP stays about the same, their K/9 goes down, etc...did they get better or did they get a little luckier (or play in front of better defense)? If a player's BABIP jumps by 90 pts to a career high by 60 pts and far far above the league average...did they get better or get a little luckier? Especially over smaller sample sizes. No one is saying that Jax or Bader aren't good players, but Jax was always due some regression to his mean and Bader is getting some breaks with his bat. (he's got a .415 batting average on balls in play in Philly. His career BABIP is .305. It's the same thing with Keaschall, where we all knew he wasn't going to find every hole on the field forever. doesn't mean Keaschall is a bad player either. Just not likely to hit .380)
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