Lucas Seehafer PT

Taj Bradley might have been the best-known name acquired by the Minnesota Twins during the 2025 trade deadline fire sale. A former top 100 prospect, Bradley’s performance plateaued during his third season with the Tampa Bay Rays, who shipped him to the Twins in exchange for the highly coveted Griffin Jax. Bradley’s first run with the Twins was mediocre. He finished the 2025 campaign with a 5.05 ERA in a career-high 142 ⅔ innings, though, as has been consistent throughout his young career, his 4.37 xFIP suggested that he got a little unlucky. Entering his first full season with the Twins, the question of whether or not Bradley would be more effective as a reliever has been swirling through many minds. However, unlike my analysis of Zebby Matthews, I think there is sufficient data to suggest that Bradley’s role as a starter is clearer, at least in the short term. Read Previous Entries: David Festa's Arsenal Zebby Matthews' Arsenal Taj Bradley’s Stuff and Pitch Arsenal Bradley’s arsenal primarily consists of four pitches—a four-seamer, cutter, splitter, and curveball—though he occasionally throws a sinker (or at least some of his four-seamers get labeled as such). Like most pitchers, his offerings vary depending on the handedness of the hitter; in 2025, he primarily deployed his fastball, cutter, and curve against righties (515, 347, and 146 pitches, respectively) and his fastball, splitter, and curve against lefties (565, 246, and 189). (Of note: Baseball Savant labeled 192 of Bradley’s fastballs against righties in 2025 as sinkers compared to only 10 against lefties. This suggests that Bradley will alter his grip on occasion against same-handed hitters to induce more horizontal run into the batter.) On paper, Bradley’s fastball should play well. It sits in the mid-90s and can touch near 100 mph on occasion with 18.5 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) and 6.2 inches of horizontal break. His fastballs, categorized as sinkers, feature a similar velocity profile, though with 15.4 inches of IVB and 10.5 inches of arm-side run. His four-seamer’s IVB is well-above average, meaning it should fare well at the top of the zone, where its ability to create a rising illusion should cause it to induce whiffs. Notice how many “shoulds” are in the previous paragraph. In practice, Bradley’s fastball is arguably his worst pitch. In nearly 3,000 offerings across 385 ⅓ major league innings, the fastball has produced an .896 OPS. According to FanGraphs, since making his MLB debut in mid-April 2023, Bradley’s fastball ranks 371st out of 419 in OPS against, while throwing it with the 29th-highest volume (minimum of 500 pitches). (His sinker provides much too small a sample size to make any grand conclusions, but Pitch Info Solutions, which provides its pitch data to Savant, has Bradley producing a .756 OPS across 192 pitches.) What should—there’s that word again—be heartening to Twins fans, though, is that the rest of Bradley’s repertoire has performed quite well. Nearly 1,500 cutters have produced a .711 OPS (14th volume, 27th OPS, out of 103); his splitter has produced a .597 OPS (10th volume, 26th OPS, out of 171; 1,216 offerings); and his curveball, undeniably his best pitch, has produced a miniscule .454 OPS (39th volume, 6th OPS, out of 100; 844 offerings). Seemingly, the easiest fix to make Bradley a more effective pitcher is to alter his pitch mix, namely, throwing many more curveballs. Bradley’s curve features a significant vertical break (55.8 inches with gravity, four inches more than average) at 82 mph on average. It’s truly one of the best curves in the game and plays well off his high velocity, high IVB fastball. He’d also do well to throw more cutters. It features below average velo (89.6 mph) and a relatively poor movement profile (4.0 inches of glove side break is good but 5.6 inches of IVB is quite poor), but a .711 OPS is much better than a .896; even if it were to perform worse at higher volume (and it almost undoubtedly would based on its movement profile), it almost couldn’t perform worse than the fastball. Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2025 Sweeper 34 17 17 33.3 82.0 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 .000 .078 .000 .087 .138 .197 86.1 14 2416 6.7 40.0 18.2 2025 Four Seamer 27 22 5 26.5 93.2 6 6 1 1 0 0 0 2 4 .167 .093 .167 .123 .147 .093 90.2 52 2247 6.8 27.3 22.2 2025 Sinker 27 8 19 26.5 92.9 9 6 2 2 0 0 0 1 5 .333 .277 .333 .455 .430 .442 85.2 32 2040 6.7 10.0 20.0 2025 Changeup 11 11 0 10.8 88.9 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 .500 .448 1.000 .633 .626 .456 98.1 5 1891 6.8 0.0 0.0 2025 Cutter 3 3 0 2.9 89.4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1.000 .889 4.000 3.536 1.380 1.257 107.1 29 2393 6.7 0.0 0.0 2024 Sweeper 128 95 33 32.1 80.6 25 21 4 3 0 0 1 8 15 .190 .135 .333 .232 .245 .190 86.0 21 2497 6.7 34.5 19.0 2024 Sinker 97 79 18 24.3 92.5 27 27 6 6 0 0 0 2 25 .222 .268 .222 .318 .196 .262 87.1 6 2043 6.7 17.6 11.8 2024 Four Seamer 80 70 10 20.1 93.3 35 33 7 7 0 0 0 4 29 .212 .250 .212 .298 .217 .268 83.1 20 2183 6.7 14.6 10.8 2024 Changeup 57 56 1 14.3 87.9 16 15 5 4 1 0 0 1 15 .333 .299 .400 .419 .319 .321 82.2 2 1985 6.7 17.2 20.0 2024 Cutter 37 32 5 9.3 88.4 11 10 6 5 0 0 0 1 10 .600 .379 .900 .607 .587 .411 93.3 17 2430 6.7 20.0 11.1 What Should Taj Bradley’s Role Be In 2026? From an aresenal standpoint, Bradley has enough juice to remain a starting pitcher. He possesses three pitches—the cutter, splitter, and curve—that have performed at an above-average to well-above-average clip throughout his three years in the bigs. Altering his pitch mix to feature fewer four-seamers and more curveballs and cutters against righties would be prudent (and would likely improve his rather poor career 15.2% K-BB% and .754 OPS against same-handed batters; for reference, lefties, who should be much better against the right-handed Bradley, have produced a 17.4% K-BB% and .730 OPS. That’s weird.) However, at a certain point, the results speak for themselves. Bradley has largely been an underwhelming starting pitcher, especially when you take into account his hype as a prospect. He has seen his strikeout rate drop from 28.0% as a rookie to 21.0% in 2025, while his walk rate has increased, from 8.5% (an already high number) to 9.3%. It’s possible that 2026 marks his last run at a starting pitching role, unless he improves his ability to miss bats and avoid freely placing runners on base. View full article

I don’t think that’s necessarily true. Especially if the Zebbys, Festas, etc. develop into high-end relievers. Turning an eighth-round pick (who rarely even make the majors) into a 100 mph solid bullpen arm is much more of a market inefficiency that turning a first or second-round pick into the same.

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Perhaps no other Twin in recent memory saw their prospect stock rise more rapidly than Zebby Matthews. Selected with the 234th pick in the 2022 draft out of Western Carolina and signed for a paltry $125,000, Matthews grew from an afterthought to a top prospect at virtually the speed of light, debuting by mid-August 2024. Unfortunately, Matthews’s once-bright flame has dimmed in the eyes of some, due to inconsistent performance across 117 major-league innings. His rise was fueled by an uncanny ability to live in the zone, missing bats and not giving up any walks, while drastically improving his fastball velocity. In the majors, his walk rates have nearly tripled from approximately 2.0% in the minors to 6.6%, while his strikeout rates have dropped by roughly eight percentage points. These decrements in performance, albeit in a relatively small sample, have begun to beg the question: Is Zebby Matthews’s future in the starting rotation or the bullpen? Read Previous Entries: David Festa's Arsenal Zebby Matthews’s Stuff & Pitch Arsenal On paper, Matthews boasts a prototypical 2026 starting pitcher repertoire. He primarily relies on his four-seamer and slider, dispatching them against lefties (293 and 140, respectively, in 2025) and righties (263 and 199) at an equal clip. Matthews employs his cutter slightly more often against left-handed hitters (103 vs 73), though the sample size for each is quite small, and virtually only throws his changeup against lefties (104 vs. 39). Sprinkle in the occasional curve and sinker to keep hitters on their toes, and Matthews arsenal is sufficient for a starting pitcher… in theory. In practice, at least at the MLB-level to date, Matthews really only has one pitch that has performed well: his gyro slider. As shown in the movement profile graph and implied in the slider heat map above, Matthews’s slider features significantly more drop (vertical break) than it does sweep (horizontal break). This is due to the pitch featuring more gyroscopic (think football spiral) spin than side spin. Gyroscopic spin does not influence pitch movement, meaning that the majority of the ball’s movement is simply due to the pull of gravity as it flies through the air. Across 525 major league offerings, opposing hitters have managed a meager .568 OPS against Matthews’s slider, per FanGraphs, driven by a high-30% whiff rate in combination with a 42% ground ball rate. In essence, when Matthews’s throws his slider there’s high chance that the batter is either going to miss it entirely or pound it into the ground. The rest of Matthews’s arsenal has been varying degrees of lackluster, even this four-seam fastball, whose crazy velocity creep helped him rapidly rise through the minors. Pitchers can overpower minor league hitting with pure velocity, something Matthews and his mid-90s fastball accomplished. However, the same can’t be said for major league hitting. Generally speaking, if a fastball is going to be a pitcher’s best offering in the majors, it not only needs to possess high velocity readings but also have a movement profile that makes hitting it squarely extremely difficult. MLB hitters can hit straight gas; hitting moving or deceptive gas is much more difficult. When analyzing the movement profile, or shape, of a fastball, there are two metrics worth considering: induced vertical break and horizontal break. Induced vertical break measures how much the ball drops solely due to its spin, taking gravity out of the equation. If a fastball has a high degree of spin, it will, more often than not, register a higher induced vertical break, meaning it doesn’t drop. This will produce an illusion in the hitter’s brain, making it seem as though the ball is rising. Horizontal break measures how much the ball moves, well, horizontally; if it moves towards the glove side of the pitcher, we say it has ‘cut’, and if it moves towards the hand side, we say it has ‘run’. Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2025 Four Seamer 556 263 293 41.1 96.2 123 112 40 25 8 0 7 30 85 .357 .303 .616 .571 .422 .394 92.7 23 2331 6.6 22.4 19.4 2025 Slider 339 199 140 25.1 88.2 113 107 16 11 2 0 3 50 58 .150 .184 .252 .326 .193 .237 87.5 10 2419 6.4 38.5 24.3 2025 Cutter 176 73 103 13.0 91.7 54 42 14 12 1 0 1 3 40 .333 .318 .429 .482 .405 .414 88.7 15 2494 6.5 24.2 8.6 2025 Changeup 143 39 104 10.6 87.5 32 31 11 7 3 0 1 1 31 .355 .317 .548 .426 .374 .346 86.3 6 1499 6.4 26.3 5.3 2025 Curveball 79 38 41 5.8 82.9 14 14 5 4 1 0 0 2 12 .357 .304 .429 .487 .342 .338 88.9 38 2435 6.3 34.5 10.5 2025 Sinker 60 58 2 4.4 95.8 18 17 8 8 0 0 0 2 16 .471 .264 .471 .320 .415 .255 77.2 6 2317 6.6 7.7 50.0 2024 Four Seamer 307 115 192 42.8 94.9 66 59 17 7 5 0 5 17 42 .288 .262 .627 .592 .417 .394 94.3 19 2230 6.5 17.8 21.3 2024 Slider 186 92 94 25.9 87.2 57 52 16 12 2 0 2 20 32 .308 .251 .462 .400 .363 .318 90.2 11 2349 6.4 37.6 23.5 2024 Cutter 116 62 54 16.2 90.9 30 29 10 7 0 0 3 2 27 .345 .295 .655 .674 .434 .418 87.3 17 2403 6.4 18.2 18.2 2024 Changeup 57 2 55 7.9 85.8 9 9 2 1 1 0 0 0 9 .222 .348 .333 .512 .237 .378 86.6 -5 1550 6.4 31.3 0.0 2024 Curveball 51 9 42 7.1 81.7 15 15 6 4 1 0 1 4 11 .400 .327 .667 .558 .455 .377 87.9 16 2369 6.3 17.4 14.8 Generally, there is a trade-off between a fastball’s induced vertical break and horizontal break; more in one generally leads to less of another. This is where Matthews’s fastballs—both his four-seam and sinker—struggle. The induced vertical break of his four-seamer is 16.6 inches, and his horizontal break is 9.0 inches of run; for his sinker, it is 13.1 inches and 15.2 inches, respectively. These are what are known in the industry as “dead zone” fastballs. Essentially, to the batter’s eye, they appear straight, not having enough induced vertical break to produce the rising illusion and not enough horizontal break to be difficult to square up. Since Matthews’s made his debut, opponents have produced a .944 OPS (839 pitches) against his four-seamer and a 1.368 OPS (82 pitches) against his sinker. His cutter (.955; 294), changeup (.817; 200), and curve (.931; 130) haven’t fared much better. However, there are some intriguing data points embedded within Matthews’s splits statistics. Namely, they suggest that he is much better against righties than lefties to the tune of .230 points of OPS (.944 OPS against 278 lefties and .714 OPS against 253 righties) and 4.0% K-BB% (20.2% vs. 16.2%). Which informs… What Should Zebby Matthews’s Role Be In 2026? It’s extremely difficult to be an MLB-caliber starting pitcher with only one good pitch. Luckily, carving out a productive career out of the bullpen is relatively achievable. Matthews’s career to date is not all that dissimilar to that of Glen Perkins, Tyler Duffey, and, more recently, Griffin Jax. These were all starting pitchers who experienced great success in the minors before struggling mightily once they reached the majors because their middling repertoires were exposed. However, a shift to the bullpen and increased emphasis on their best pitches transformed them into, at times, devastating backend relievers. For Matthews to project as a starting pitcher moving forward, he likely needs to add at least one more above-average pitch—perhaps a sweeper or kick-change to complement his gyro slider?—and/or improve the shape of his fastball. Neither is a particularly easy task, though adding a new pitch is significantly more trainable than adding isolated pitch spin/induced vertical break. The Twins have far more metrics available to them, including whether Matthews is more of a natural pronator or supinator, which would influence which pitches would be easier to add, as well as linear and rotational force-velocity data, which would indicate if there is any additional athletic performance meat being left on the bone. The Twins may continue to employ Matthews as a starter, but, as things stand right now, his profile is much more suitable for a bullpen role. View full article

Good question. Off the top of my head, I’m not aware of other pitchers getting Botox but that doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened.

Yes. He will undoubtedly start throwing before the 4 months mark as that would essentially be February. I would imagine his treatment plan would look something like: -0-6 weeks: No throwing, rehab, strength training, symptom management -6 weeks to Spring Training: Gradually ramp up throwing based on symptoms, continue with rehab and strength training -Spring Training to Regular season: Build pitching bulk and endurance -Regular season: Good to go That’s the hope, anyway.

Generally, Botox is effective for about 3-4 months but it can vary. I doubt they would do a second injection.

The hope is that the injection and rehab will be sufficient. But as I wrote, success is only about 50%, so it’s no guarantee. However, because his symptoms were relatively mild and they seemingly caught it early, that increase the odds of success.

Correct. It is a short-term solution with a diagnostic element. As I wrote, Botox eventually wears off, so the muscle will be able to function again. And you are correct, you don’t want to use Botox repeatedly for exactly why you said.

Image courtesy of © Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images Minnesota Twins starting pitcher David Festa avoided a worst-case scenario last week, as reported by the Minnesota Star Tribune, when he received a Botox injection to relieve compression placed on the nerves in his neck causing thoracic outlet syndrome. Thoracic outlet syndrome is a complex condition that comes in multiple varieties. All four share a common theme: something that runs from the neck to the hand is getting pinched. With the neurologic variation, it’s the nerves of the brachial plexus; with the arterial, it’s the main artery; veinous, the main vein; and complex, some combination of the above. Festa, by all accounts, is dealing with only the neurologic variation, and the Twins are calling it “very, very mild.” Botox injections—so named for the botulinum toxin that serves as the medication's active ingredient—is a flaccid paralytic agent, meaning the injection causes the musculature it is injected into to not only relax, but also be unable to contract. The brachial plexus—a conduit of nerves that eventually branches out into the major nerves of the arm—leaves the neck and passes through a group of muscles called the scalenes and underneath the pectoralis minor of the shoulder, a small muscle located underneath the pectoralis major or “pecs.” The scalenes and pectoralis minor often bulk up with repeated throwing, which can lead to compression of the brachial plexus; this is one of the reasons why thoracic outlet syndrome is more common in high-level pitchers compared to the general public. Flaccid paralysis of these muscles induced by a Botox injection should, theoretically, reduce the compression on the nerves and allow for Festa to resume baseball activities with time; a recent systematic review reported that roughly 50% of individuals with neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome experienced reduced symptoms following a Botox injection. (Botox injections eventually wear off, so Festa’s muscles aren’t permanently paralyzed; this is also why people have to continually get Botox injections to relieve their forehead from wrinkles.) In rare cases, individuals grow an extra bone in their neck that is similar to a rib. The rib may also compress the brachial plexus; the scalenes may or may not attach to the rib. In such cases, the rib is surgically removed and the scalenes are “released,” or have their attachment cut. Whether or not Festa has an extra rib is unknown, but statistically speaking, it’s unlikely. Thoracic outlet syndrome has traditionally been known as a “diagnosis of exclusion,” meaning all other potential explanations for one’s symptoms are ruled out before one is given the label of thoracic outlet syndrome. As such, it often takes a long time for one to be treated correctly, increasing the likelihood of failed treatments and/or permanent nerve damage. Luckily, Festa’s condition was diagnosed relatively quickly, and as such, it did not progress to the point where surgery was immediately on the table. If the injections and corresponding physical therapy prove effective, it’s not unreasonable to expect a normal offseason for Festa. The Twins appear to have dodged a bullet here. View full article

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images Ryan Fitzgerald is 31 years old and has appeared in nine MLB games. He’s likely not in the Twins’ plans beyond the 2025 campaign, and his days in professional baseball may be numbered. That’s just the reality for a player of Fitzgerald’s ilk. But one doesn’t amass over 400 games at the Triple-A level without having talent or the desire to improve. For Fitzgerald, this desire came to the fore during the 2020 COVID-cancelled minor-league season. “In 2019, I had the highest line-drive percentage of the Statcast Era. I think the next-highest was like Freddie Freeman’s, around 31%. I think I was half a percent higher or something like that. So I was trying to figure out, ‘Ok, I’ve got a below-.700 OPS but I’ve got a really high line-drive rate. What’s going on here?’” said Fitzgerald, who was in the Boston Red Sox organization at the time. “I was like, ‘I’ve gotta add bat speed.’” Bat speed has become one of the hot buzzwords in the baseball lexicon over the last few seasons, due largely to MLB publishing swing data for every MLB player on their hyper-specialized stats site Baseball Savant. However, teams have been tracking bat speed and other swing metrics for quite some time. “I think my average bat speed in games in 2019 was like 68 and change [miles per hour]. Obviously, league average is 71.3, somewhere around there. So going into 2020, I got with a guy named Ryan Johansen, who was at the time one of the hitting coordinators for the [Chicago White Sox]. I was working with him pretty much that whole offseason—all of 2020. Just trying to figure out how I can increase bat speed.” Fitzgerald's swing speed in limited MLB action? 71.3 mph. Nnk5QVlfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JnUUFBQVVEQlFjQURsb0NVUUFIVkFOWEFGa0ZCVkFBQlFRQ0FBSU1DVkZVQWdwVQ==.mp4 Swing metrics are one of the many aspects of baseball that successfully marries concepts of physics to the sport. As the sport is largely rotational—one can’t throw a ball or swing a bat without rotating, after all—all of the forces generated by the athletes are technically torques, the rotational equivalent of linear force. However, linear force (F) is familiar and easy enough to understand, so it is often used to explain the benefits of increased bat speed. As Isaac Newton described over 300 years ago, force is equal to the mass (m) of an object multiplied by its acceleration (a); the famous F=ma. Acceleration can further be described as the change of velocity (v) over time (t), morphing the equation to F=m(v/t). So, at its most basic level, force production is directly related to velocity—or in the case of Fitzgerald, swing speed. “[Johansen] put me on a bunch of different programs and kind of got me right,” Fitzgerald said. “I went and got a bat-fitting done, changed my bat. That helped a lot. I was swinging a really small and light bat. I went to a bit longer bat, and slightly heavier; a different model.” By increasing the weight (literally the mass) of his bat, Fitzgerald improved both variables that contribute to force production, m and v/t. The result was a career minor-league OPS of .770, though outside of a poor .704 mark in 127 games in 2022, his numbers regularly landed north of .800. That kept his career viable long enough to eventually bring him all the way to the place players dream of reaching—the majors. But how, exactly, did Fitzgerald go about improving his bat speed? A mix of weight training and bat speed work. “I linked up with a trainer after the 2021 season named Bill Miller, and he got me on a ton more weight room-specific bat speed stuff,” Fitzgerald said. “Ryan Johansen helped me more with my swing and stuff like that in the cage, but then I was able to couple that with Bill’s training. A lot of isometrics. A lot of fast-twitch movements. I mean, we measure pretty much everything I do in the weight room there, so that’s been huge for me.” Measuring force and power output on a regular basis is standard practice at all levels of professional baseball (and increasingly, college and high-school ball, as well). The primary tools used to gather such metrics are force plates. These sensors, which can be embedded under a batter's box or used as isolated above-ground units, can measure force and power data to ridiculously precise degrees. This allows teams to determine an athlete’s strength and power, and develop appropriate training protocols. One metric commonly used by teams is the Dynamic Strength Index, which is determined by finding the relationship between the athlete’s maximal force production during an isometric pull (strength) and a jumping task (power). If the athlete can produce a lot of force but not very quickly, they’d benefit from power training, which emphasizes moving weight quickly. If they can produce force quickly but not very much, they’d benefit from strength training, which is all about producing as much force as possible. For Fitzgerald, he needed to improve his power. “I’ve always said, squatting more weight in the weight room isn’t really gonna help you on the baseball field. If you can get to a certain threshold, I think that’s plenty of strength that you’re gonna need. Developing those Type 2 muscle fibers and those fast-twitch muscles are really what you want to do,” Fitzgerald said. “I’m not concerned about squatting 400 pounds in the weight room; I’d rather move 225 extremely fast. I think that’s gonna play better, in terms of bat speed, athleticism, pretty much everything you need on a baseball field.” (Writer’s note for clarification: Type 2 muscle fibers are often referred to as fast-twitch because, among other things, they contract more quickly than their Type 1 counterparts.) However, not all athletes would benefit from the same approach as Fitzgerald. In fact, it’s possible that he would have seen similar results from squatting 400 pounds. Again, consider the equation F=m(v/t). This formula stipulates that there are three viable ways to increase force production: 1. Increasing m (i.e., squatting 400); 2. Increasing v/t (i.e., moving 225 really fast); or 3. Doing both. The key to developing individual athletes is working together with them to determine their preferred method of training and developing training programs to improve their weaknesses. Johansen and Miller did that expertly with Fitzgerald, and it paid off. Matthew Trueblood contributed reporting to this story. View full article