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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'm less enthusiastic about Rogers, who hasn't looked great IMHO: far too hittable, and eventually that's going to catch up to him. But Caratini, Bell, and Orze in particular have looked good so far. I always felt like Bell was going to be a good signing: dude can hit. He's not impressive defensively, but we need the offense. Caratini isn't setting the world on fire, but the bar for offense at catcher is so low that he's clearing it easily. But the more he plays at 1B the less exciting his .300 SLG looks.
  2. jmlease1
    Excellent start by Joe Ryan. Love seeing him complete 7, keep us from needing too many outs from the bullpen. Toronto has a talented lineup (even if some guys might be scrabbling a bit), so holding them to 2 runs over 7 is a very fine outing. When the Twins lineup is working the walks, they're putting runs on the board. Nice to see them string together 6 more free passes (and then back them up with some power). Larnach has been very effective so far this season, and maybe getting a couple of big blasts will get Lee on a bit of a run. Martin is doing a great job of getting himself on base, and making a case to see him leading off. Didn't love seeing Sands make it harder on himself by giving up the dinger, but there was enough room for error that I'm guessing he was challenging hitters a bit more than he might have? Would love to see Taj win the duel and the series tomorrow. Hopefully the team won't treat getaway day as a time to take an early nap...
  3. jmlease1
    It'll be interesting to see how they use Morris: 1 inning at a time, or will he be asked to go 2+? I think I'd like to see how he does going 2 innings or so twice a week in this bullpen. You'd think he wouldn't be placed as a classic long man, but if they're hoping to have his stuff play up more they might be looking to see what he looks like in 1 inning stints. It'll be interesting. Good opportunity for Morris; we'll see what he does with it. Bummer about Laweryson who was doing well and looking effective.
  4. jmlease1
    Nice start to the pro career for Quick. I'm not going to be too bothered if they keep him down in Ft. Myers for a while (he simply hasn't pitched a lot, so I won't be surprised if the Twins are very careful with his workload while building him up) but he's clearly got real talent and could end up being a fast riser once he demonstrates that his arm can handle the workload. Hard to find any complaints in Culpepper's performance so far. It's tempting with Lewis going down to call him up and see if he's ready (wouldn't be hard to slide Lee over to 3B, where frankly he'd be better) but I don't know that the Twins are ready to throw him in the fire yet. Might depend on how long they expect Lewis to be out? Bohorquez and Hill kind of nuked themselves with the free passes. Love the talent, but there's a reason they're in A-ball right now. Got to find the zone, boys. Very pleased with Marek Houston's start. I was one of the ones sounding the alarm about his bat after he looked lost after promotion, but so far he's doing his level best to make me look like a foolish alarmist. Would be thrilled to have him make me look like a moron. He keeps hitting like this (we already know he can pick it) and he'll be in Wichita real soon. Maybe fewer on the K's, but hard to get mad at anything when he's got a 1.015 OPS.
  5. jmlease1
    Boy, Wallner better not make another mistake or strike out for a while, because the knives are out for him. It was a team loss, with struggles all over the place. Wallner may have misplayed a ball in the OF, but SWR was getting hit hard in the 4th. Banda struggled (that's 2 straight in the stinker column, which isn't great). The offense vanished once Corbin left. (nice to see Jeffers on such a hot streak, but he needs more help) I think this was the kind of game going into the season we thought we'd see a lot from the Twins: if the starting pitching was off then the bullpen would just make things worse and the offense wouldn't be enough to bail them out and the defense wouldn't impress. The trick is for this not to be a pattern and hopefully they come back this weekend and get at least one win. Bummer about Lewis and Laweryson. Royce was starting to look like he was settling in and was doing some damage at the plate, so it's bummer to lose him, and any injury to him just feels like "here we go again". Laweryson had been one of the brighter spots so far in the bullpen and it was nice to see him getting a chance. Forearm injuries frequently seem to be a precursor to elbow problems these days, and I hope it's not that.
  6. jmlease1
    I'm not sure why Ellwanger moves faster than Quick. Neither one is particularly old, neither one threw a lot of innings in college, both have some development ahead of them, especially in showing that can pitch more than 4 innings and hold up over a full professional season. I suspect both will be spending a decent chunk of the season in Ft. Myers and if they are really looking good and have stayed healthy, they might get a bump to Cedar Rapids at midseason. But I wouldn't be shocked at all if they spend their first professional season in Ft. Myers.
  7. jmlease1
    In principle I agree with you, but GG hasn't exactly forced the Twins hand so far this season (quite a few cold bats in AAA so far). But I was on the no to Outman train this season too. His defense has been fine, but not impressive. As a baserunner, he's fine, but won't get many opportunities. He's looked utterly lost at the plate in his fortunately few opportunities. His role has been limited a bit by circumstance and roster construction, but sadly that's been a good thing. We probably would have been better keeping Arcia around...
  8. jmlease1
    Seems unlikely in his first pro season, especially since he didn't pitch a lot in college only 81 innings in 2 seasons!). I suspect the Twins will want to keep him in FL where they have additional staff and facilities for most if not all of this season. They'll probably monitor his workload carefully. I could see him rise very fast in year 2 if he shows he can keep the free passes off the board, though.
  9. jmlease1
    Reminds me of the old story from former Twins manager Ray Miller, back when he was pitching coach for Baltimore. Dave Stanhouse was on the mound, and was driving Earl Weaver crazy with walks and he yelled at Miller "just go out there and tell him to throw strikes!". Miller said he thought at the time that Stanhouse already knew that, but Earl was the boss so he trotted out to the mound. When he got there, Stanhouse sneered at him, "what are you doing here? You gonna tell me to throw strikes?" So Miller responded, "Nah, I'm just here to tell you your fly is down."
  10. jmlease1
    well, the green light still appears to be on for DeBarge? That will be fun all season. Nice job by Ellwanger. Curious to see how is control looks in this first season. He's got a live arm! Need to get some guys on track in Saint Paul.
  11. jmlease1
    It's funny that you think there's been this big organizational shift in the use of starters when the pitching coach didn't change.
  12. jmlease1
    It's sort of incredible how many LH starters we're facing to start the season.
  13. jmlease1
    first pitch strikes to 19 out of 25 batters for Abel today. That's going to improve the outcomes...
  14. jmlease1
    Gallagher is off to a nice start. Be nice if he turns out to be somebody? He'll have to watch the free passes, but everything else is going nicely so far. Liking the usage of Winokur so far this season: split between 3B and CF seems good and he could actually have a future at either, so I like seeing him work there. Think this means the SS experiment is done? I like seeing DeBarge draw a bunch of walks, but I will be watching to see where the batting average is shaping up by midseason. Solid start for him overall, and he's a guy I was skeptical of going in. Would love to be proven utterly and total wrong about him. Less thrilled with an ofer from Houston, but again: let's see where he's at with the bat around midseason. One bad game in what's been a good start isn't anything to panic over.
  15. jmlease1
    The trade I didn't love was Varland for Rojas; that was the one that was the most questionable IMHO. Considering the length of team control, the need for relievers with velocity and high-end potential...that's easily the most high-risk of the deals. We'll see how that one works out. The Jax for Bradley deal was one that I liked better from the jump. Much as I liked Jax, I definitely despised the conversation about converting him back to a starter (I think it's pretty notable that's all died out: literally only Twins fans & Jax himself ever speculated on it and I've give you all the money in my pockets against all the money in yours if Jax ever starts a game for TB as anything other than an "opener"). And as I've noted elsewhere: Jax as a reliever had 1 great season, and 3 good seasons as a reliever. He hasn't shown that he's a dominant, consistent reliever. Yes, 2025 had some strong underlying numbers that weren't matched up with results, and the stuff still looked great, but results also tell some things too, and the reality was Jax was walking more guys and giving up more hits, even as he was ringing up more K's. I think the use of Bradley's ERA after he came over to the Twins is factual, but not really descriptive of where he was as a pitcher? His Game Scores are a little more instructive, and show how much inconsistency hurt him. In the six starts, he's got 2 disasters, 1 that's a bit below average, 1 solid start and 2 very good ones. That's a pitcher who has talent and can find consistency. You look at a 6.61 ERA (which he absolutely had) and you might think "this guy is crap!", but the ERA doesn't really describe him effectively. Especially when the Twins almost certainly were less concerned with protecting him from a blow out and just wanted him to pitch some MLB innings. In his 6 starts he threw 80+ pitches in all of them, struggles or no. It's too early to be sure whether Bradley has figured it out, but it's a very nice start, and he's got the potential to be a frontline starter. He's got the stuff, he's added velocity, he's kept the ball in the park, and he's limited the free passes. If he can get a little more efficient in finishing off hitters, he's going to be going deep into games consistently as well. these are all good signs. Small samples, very early in a season. Absolutely. But also good reasons to feel positive about this trade.
  16. jmlease1
    [insert ESPN Voice] "What if I told you that a Twins roster loaded with LH hitters and who suck at facing LHP took down two top LHP in 2 games?" It's a good win, even if the bullpen wobbled with the big lead. Nice to see Ober have a good result. Definitely people around here who want to jettison him into the sun, so I'm hoping he makes them eat their words, possibly with a side of rosin. Can't complain about the offense too much, with the exception of Brooks Lee, who continues to struggle. Good to see see Buxton and Lewis with multi-hit games; be great if they were both locking in and get on a run. Buck has looked close recently, and Royce has hit the ball hard as well, so good for them to get some good results. 3 straight against Detroit and a series win going into get-away day. Why not a sweep? Why the eff not?
  17. jmlease1
    I hope he can figure it out. I do love that change-up.
  18. jmlease1
    It was not unreasonable to be concerned when a college bat has a near total power outage at High A and looks dreadful at the plate. He wasn't stinging balls and just getting unlucky: he looked legitimately bad. Sure, it's a small sample, but it was cause for concern. (and the K rate at Cedar Rapids was slightly above 20%, and a big jump from Ft. Myers) He's off to an excellent start so far, and if he continues to show he can do damage when given a good pitch to drive, then he'll be in good shape. Interesting to see Amick off to a hot start; I wasn't sure he was going to get promoted to AA after fighting injuries and falling off in the second half last season, and then looking atrocious in the AFL. But he's responded nicely and I'll be interested to see where his season ends up. Don't mind him splitting time between 3B and 1B at all, either.
  19. jmlease1
    I think we're allowed to feel some positivity over Bradley. I don't think most people are saying "mission accomplished", but Bradley has never had a start to his season this good before. The fact that he's kept the ball in the park is an encouraging sign, and while he's had a three game stretch like this before...it's been unusual. People have also overrated how good Jax was: he had 1 dominant season as a reliever (2024) and 3 others where he was a quality reliever, but hardly elite. last season we spent a lot of time talking about how unlucky Jax was, and how the results weren't matching the underlying numbers...but the reality was, Jax was more hittable in 2025 and looked a lot more like the dude from 2022 or 2023 than 2024, even if his K numbers were elite. I'm sure Jax's performance will improve, but he also might just a good but not elite reliever.
  20. jmlease1
    Sometimes the change of scenery matters. Communication styles aren't meshing or the messages start sounding like Miss Othmar from Peanuts. And while TB may be a well-run organization that's been very skilled at trading away players at the right time and finding assets in other organizations, it doesn't mean they don't have their own patterns and ways of doing business that can't be exploited by teams who are taking a different angle. It's why you should never be afraid to trade with a team simply because of their reputation (I've seen people say you shouldn't trade with the Dodgers because they're "too smart" as well): everyone misses things, and players that struggle under one plan could succeed under a different design. It sounds like TB wanted him to move off his splitter, and from what we've seen of it here in MN, it's a real weapon. That could be based on organizational philosophy in TB, or it could be the coaches working with Bradley here in MN were better able to make the adjustments with him needed to make it that weapon. You never know about fit. And sometimes a trade really focuses things for a player and changes their attitude and focus about their career.
  21. jmlease1
    A very nice win. Props to the Twins offense for working counts and really making Skubal work (and he was definitely not very comfortable in the cold weather; he even got a pitch clock violation because he was spending so much time trying to keep his hand warm). Bradley looked really good, again. His stuff is excellent, the pitch mix is strong...as long as he's commanding his pitches and finishing off batters efficiently then he's a really good pitcher. Seems like there might be a little bit of a shift in bullpen usage for the Twins: they appear to be more interested in matchups vs having a pitcher start an inning "clean" this season? This may be tied to having more LHP in the bullpen, maybe it's just a bit of a fluke, but it seems like we're seeing more guys get 2 outs to finish an inning and then come out to get one more the next inning than we used to. Curious to see how that trend goes? Twins continue to get the barrage of LH starters. Hopefully they can continue to survive it...
  22. jmlease1
    Nothing new: people buying those expensive tickets aren't bothering to show up for a frozen game with a team that doesn't look very good. But Twins aren't unique on this problem. How many parents do you think were at this game with kids out of the tiny amount that showed up? I'm guessing they didn't want to freeze their butts off either and if they did show a bunch left at the first complaint from the kids about being cold and/or bored...
  23. jmlease1
    I don't think they're that afraid of Martin/Roden covering CF; they had Martin do it once this season already. I think this is the old "don't let an asset get away for nothing" fear (they're missing that he's just not an asset), coupled with the sunk cost fallacy on Outman. It's a failure of process to be sure (and we're hardly unique on it in MLB) but I was hoping this might be one of the things that could change under Zoll. So far? Not so much. How much more rope does Outman get? Considering how we've already seen this guy be garbage last season, it doesn't feel like a hasty decision to boot him from the roster. Roden doesn't fix the issue of too many LH bats on the roster, but at least he might be able to add something.
  24. jmlease1
    A good win, but with several nervous moments. Ryan wasn't particularly sharp, but only got burned in the 4th. But as a result, he didn't go deep like you'd like to see. Lee's error wasn't great, but Ryan isn't some rookie to get flustered by one baserunner, and your best pitcher should be able to pick up your infield occasionally, right? Bigger issue was 101 pitches through 5. That's not efficient enough in finishing guys off. But he kept us in the game. Dodged a huge bullet with Funderburk's walks; he was definitely off and was missing the plate by a lot. Props to Laweryson for slamming the door. Nice to see the offense come alive. 10 hits and 7 walks had better get you a W. Was worried it was going to be a WTF game when they loaded the bases with 1 out in the 2nd and couldn't get a run, but they did a bit better with some timely hitting. Good to see Lewis have a smart game with 2 walks and a hit, Buck was swinging the bat pretty well, Wallner and Larnach both had 2 hits which was good as well. Outman, on the other hand...yikes. Finally gets another start, does nothing with it. Only 9 games, but he looks lost at the plate. As much as I look to have been wrong about Larnach so far, I've been right about Outman being trash. Bring up Roden and give him some real run. I'm pretty sure Outman passes through waivers if for some reason the Twins feel inclined to keep him.
  25. jmlease1
    for us (a team that's going nowhere this year) I suppose that's true, but for a title hopeful, they're going to need more than just solid production vs RHP to make adding Larnach (as opposed to someone else) worth making the move for. I'd say building up Larnach for a trade is the best we can hope for here. Yes, he can help the Twins this year over some of the other current LH bats on the roster, but he has little to no future here and there's a real question of whether an average Larnach season comes close to the kind of production we could get from one of the many prospect options his roster spot is blocking. It also doesn't matter if Jeffers, Lee, and Lewis are hitting under .200 as it pertains to Larnach's spot on the roster: Larnach can't play catcher, SS, or 3B. It doesn't even matter much that Outman or Buxton can't buy a hit, since Larnach can't play CF either. And since we've never seen Larnach play 1B, Clemens (unsurprising) struggles at the plate don't matter than much for him either. If you want to argue for Larnach over Wallner, I guess you can (there's no shortage of people who will jump on the anti-Wallner bandwagon, so you won't be alone), but Wallner has a stronger track record.
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