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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I think it's more likely that Lee would move to 3B, if he gets slotted into a regular job. He's got enough arm for 3B, especially when he can set and throw, and has an accurate arm. I think he can play 2B, but he doesn't have a great quick first step, which I think impacts him more at 2B than at 3B. But YMMV. I also still have hope for Keaschall at 2B... Culpepper is doing fine so far, but his OPS is basically sitting at team average right now, so he's not blowing the doors off yet. He'll definitely get attacked more efficiently in MLB, so the chase rate is concerning; pitchers in MLB are good enough to make him prove that he can lay off that slider off the outside of the plate and there will be fewer cheap walks. But he's on a good path and keeps showing improvements to how he attacks at the plate, so I'd be surprised if we don't see him at some point in MLB this season, which feels like a win.
  2. jmlease1
    it also shows how fungible relievers are; Gomez was poor for Tampa, but might go on a run where he's more than adequate for us. The samples will be small even when you throw together a whole season. Of course, I don't see a lot of good reasons to dub Gomez a "closer" of any kind; he just looks like a guy that might reasonably pitch close & late or take over as the designated 9th inning guy. We need both so...
  3. jmlease1
    I think there was a fair idea that keep Kreidler made more sense: right-handed, more defensive flexibility (particularly in areas than need more defensive help, i.e. the infield) can bring as much as Outman at the plate and on the bases at this point. But you're not wrong: it's a marginal move unless you're also planning on significantly reducing playing time for someone like Lewis or Wallner who have been the guys struggling the most at the plate. And because they didn't plan on that role changing enough in the short term is part of why they haven't called up a real prospect (along with injuries in the minors), as you've noted. But it's still not much of an endorsement for Outman who is living into his name...
  4. jmlease1
    Ranking trades based solely on their impact for the Twins 2026 MLB roster is useless. It's still too soon to really evaluate most of these deals. Losing Varland sucks, but if Rojas can be a guy then it still might not be a bad deal overall, especially if Roden gets healthy. The Duran deal still looks like it might be very good: Abel looked great before getting hurt (so waving off his contributions to 2026 while praising Duran's is fairly dumb) and Tait might be the catcher of the future. You have to give up something to get something, and these deals weren't made solely with 2026 in mind, so evaluating them only through that lens is kind of absurd. And the Outman/Stewart deal is pretty meaningless too: Outman has been mostly useless, but Stewart is perpetually hurt. While I wouldn't have made that deal, it's not like you can count on Stewart when planning a bullpen. He's like a bonus if he throws. The Castro deal had zero impact on 2026, but it also had little impact on 2025 for the Twins, negative impact for the Cubs, and Gallagher might be something useful. How is it this low even with such a narrow lens? I guess, congrats on getting me to comment?
  5. jmlease1
    I'm looking forward to seeing where he is in a month or so. Just need to see some continued progress on the walk rates, because at the end of the day, he's only 20, and that's not bad at all for high A. I'll be perfectly happy if he spends most if not all of the season in Cedar Rapids but brings the walk rates down to something more manageable and positions himself to start 2026 in Wichita. Development isn't consistent between players and isn't always linear either. I'm not panicking about his command yet. But this is also why TINSTAAPP exists as an acronym too...you just never know. I always struggle with getting to eager about guys who are still in A-ball...even when they flash electric stuff like Hill. I mean, I was getting excited about Charlee Soto too.
  6. jmlease1
    I feel like if Ross shows he can keep hitting at AAA he's lining himself up to be the utility guy next season, since he can legit play SS and would be able to back up every spot in the infield. Which would be great: much rather have that guy on a rookie salary than spending $$ on a veteran that might not have that much left. Twins need to be able to graduate talent from their farm system in all kinds of roles...and management will need to trust them to play.
  7. jmlease1
    At some point Hill has to start cutting down on the walks. The stuff is there, he can hunt K's like nobody's business, but he needs to hand out fewer free passes. 16 BBs in 19 2/3 innings tells me he'll be at Cedar Rapids for a while. It's ok, he's 20. Good game for Culpepper. He's having a good season so far, which is nice to see in his first season at AAA. It's been a good season so far, not a great one; the team OPS is actually slightly higher than his so have to keep that nice OPS in context. But no real problems yet, which is great. I think they're not feeling pushed to call him up based on his performance yet; the pressure is coming more from the struggles Royce is having in MLB, now that Lee has started to hit.
  8. jmlease1
    I'm happy to get the win, but I was convinced the murderer's row of Adams, Banda, Garcia, and Gomez were going to kick it away. That's about where we're at with the bullpen right now where I feel much more confident in our ability for them to chew up 3 innings in the middle than hold a lead late. Timely hitting got it done, although I really would have liked to see Royce come through with the sac fly late after Clemens stole 3rd. No complaints about Martin and Lee continuing to rack up hits and it was nice to see a chunk of doubles to back it up. Cleveland had a pile of baserunners, but only 1 xbh and it cost them, even against the Twins wobbly bullpen. I mean, screw Cleveland. Nice to win a road series there for the first time in a gazillion seasons. But I'd kill for some health in the rotation and a reliable power arm in the bullpen.
  9. jmlease1
    Not wrong, but not exactly representative either. It's a much bigger issue to be where Royce is after a quarter of the season than it is after a dozen games, right? So we're not really comparing the same things. And if Keaschall gets there a month from now it means he's been on a full 6 week tear and it's a very good sign that he's made real adjustments, because nearly halfway through the season he won't be seriously disappointing at the plate any longer. But the real question is, are you dismissing Brooks Lee's progress because you think it's too early in the year and might still be too small a sample, or because you don't think Brooks Lee is good?
  10. jmlease1
    I think Lee can be a good player, a quality starter on a good team. He might not be able to pull off a true all-star season, but he showing this season that he can be a quality hitter. I think it's notable that he's improved as a hitter so far in every season he's been in MLB (admittedly, there was plenty to improve on), but he's a smart player who works on his game and can make adjustments to play to his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses. I think it's fairly obvious to most that SS won't be his long-term position, but if he ends up riding out most of this season there until Culpepper is ready it's not the worst thing in the world. He's not good there; not enough range, not enough arm, but I don't think he's an embarrassment. I think 3B would be his best defensive position: he's got a pretty sure glove, makes accurate throws, and if he's got time to set himself he'll be able to make those throws across the diamond and not need the 1B to bail him out. Think he'll also do fairly well in tracking foul pops too. With Lewis struggling mightily, there's an opportunity to claim that job. A quality switch-hitter who can be good (potentially plus) at 3B and slot in anywhere in the bottom half of the lineup while providing some pop has a lot of value.
  11. jmlease1
    I'll take the blame. I've jinxed every team I root for for 35 years now. Now into my 4th consecutive decade of all hope getting wrecked, regardless of the franchise, for men's pro sports. (I'd stick to women's sports, but would probably start to ruin them for everyone else too) Sigh. Bradley was looking so good this season. Only one Game Score under 55 all season. Half his starts had a Game Score over 60. Of course he had to get injured. How could he not?
  12. jmlease1
    Twins even moved Sano off SS by 19. I guess I can live with it if they feel like they need a little more time on Young to make it an easier transition for him off the position. Managing the psyche of a young player and so forth. But he simply shouldn't leave the FSL still thinking he'll ever play SS as a pro. The Winokur decision is baffling to me as well. DeAndrade is a better SS than he is and the Twins have looked for reasons not to play him at SS it seems, yet keep running Winokur out there. It had looked like they were finally moving past it with Houston on the squad, but here we go again. He should be working at 3B, CF, or possibly 1B all positions he might actually play if his hit tool develops enough consistency to be a real guy. (personally I think it's CF with his speed, arm, and athletic tools, but YMMV) Most of the time I'm ok with leaving a guy at a position for as long as possible, but some of these guys just aren't going to stick at SS and everyone knows it. Unless they have some secret study that shows that repeated reps at SS in A-ball will improve their ability to play their eventual position by AAA, I think they can make some of these calls a little sooner.
  13. jmlease1
    Hopefully Zebby is finding a groove and getting back on track. He's still got plenty of talent and with SWR struggling so much, we may need him sooner rather than later. Can we just promote Mercedes already? Time to see what he does in Cedar Rapids. Have to be pleased with Amick so far. Would like to see more walks, fewer K's, but he's responded well and is showing some nice pop in the bat. He's taking to his first taste of AA pretty well, and after that awful showing in the AFL you had to wonder. To me it's a good sign that he was able to flush that and get back to work. Sick and tired of our top prospects getting hurt.
  14. jmlease1
    Royce was fine at 3B last season; notably our first basemen are giving no one any help this season, which is a significant change from last year. I'm not that worried about the defense, because it simply won't matter if he can't hit, and the OPS+ of 60 is far and away the bigger problem than his glove. The "send him to saint paul" idea is easy to spout off on at TwinsDaily, but it's more complicated IRL when you have to deal with actual people and not a statistical profile on bRef. (cue people screaming about "they're professionals, who cares about their feelings!" in 3...2...1...) You have to manage the psyche and personalities and the impact on the clubhouse and the player's career as well. From what we've seen so far, I doubt a demotion would go over well with Royce. At a certain point that won't matter as much, but it's still early in a season (I don't think this team is competitive with this bullpen, so I don't care about trying to "save the season") and demotion isn't the only tool in the bag. They're reducing his playing time, trying to work with him to make adjustments, and if that's not working and he can't start hitting fastballs again...he probably will go down. Hopefully someone like Culpepper is ready to come up and replace him. The fact that Brooks Lee is hitting well enough to be a producer at 3B (where his defense will play better) and Culpepper has been good so far in AAA (good, not great) should be putting some pressure on Lewis. That might end up making him worse, sadly. I wish him luck. He's a likable player and brought some great moments to the team. But if he keeps getting pushed around at the plate, he's in real trouble. It's not small samples any longer.
  15. jmlease1
    Walker Jenkins please stay healthyKaelen Culpepper see you in JuneEmmanuel Rodriguez slide less; if healthy has earned a call-up NOW.Connor Prielipp workload will need to be monitored, but there's not actually any real correlation with significant innings increases season over season.Marek Houston is answering all the questions about his bat. on track for AA at midseason at the latestEduardo Tait so young, so talented.Dasan Hill very talented, needs consistency.Riley Quick moving up fast. only concern is he's never really pitched much.Kendry Rojas might be close. still might be too wild?Gabriel Gonzalez learn 1B? he can hit.Charlee Soto get healthy. loads of talentHendry Mendez only thing holding him back is a logjam in AAAAndrew Morris a consistent job in the bullpen would not be badQuentin Young will his tools translate?Brandon Winokur see also, Young, Quentin. Ryan Gallagher showing poetntialCJ Culpepper if he stays healthy, he's too good for AAKhadim Diaw bat is warming up. what's his position?James Ellwanger big talent. injury sucks.Kyle DeBarge very concerned about his bat. awful start. Twins system has some depth to go with some high-end talent. need some decent health outcomes. Just being average on that would be a win.
  16. jmlease1
    I think he can become credible at 3B. I might respect his desire to keep playing SS and try and grow there, but it's not going to happen. But if it doesn't happen at 3B, a big target at 1B who has the nimbleness to show more range than we've seen in a while wouldn't be a bad thing if he's also unlocked that power potential. He's crazy young and it's going to be a while. The tools are for real, but I've always thought that ranking him #14 on the prospect list is overhyped. Talk to me when he shows he can translate those tools into production. But mostly, I think as fans we put him out of mind for a while; he could spend 2 seasons in Ft. Myers and still be well on track. He's got a lot of developmental work to do and he's still just a big kid.
  17. jmlease1
    He's 24, probably time to get him out of AA. Going to need to clean out some chaff at AAA, promote some guys to MLB in order to make room for guys moving up from AA at some point. Crazy that Wichita hit 10 homers in a single game. That's a LOT. DeBarge really needed one. Amick is going to be an interesting one; he's bounced back nicely from an injury-wrecked end of his first full pro season and a brutal AFL stint, but the K-rate and contact is going to be a concern, Rosario is so inconsistent that it's clearly what's holding him back, but that power is for real.
  18. jmlease1
    Mercedes is making the case for promotion right now. Good for him. I'd like to see him in Cedar Rapids before the end of May. Quick still did fine; you knew he wasn't going to be perfect forever. Looking forward to seeing where he's at in a month or so; I suspect we'll still be looking at another promotion for him this season, which would be an excellent result. Like seeing Mendez take some walks and get a hit in his AAA debut. I think he earned his promotion and it'll be fun to see how he progresses. Not a lot else positive among the hitters on the prospect list yesterday, unfortunately.
  19. jmlease1
    He has basically no chance at sliding into a rotation role, so relax. I don't have a problem with him starting in MLB as a (potentially) multi-inning reliever pitching in lower leverage situations and advancing him up the ladder or not depending on how he's performing. Have him pitch in relief and see what he can do. If his stuff is playing up and he shows he can be effective, they're going to try him out in different roles. But with Prielipp in the rotation for now and on a more restrictive pitch limit than some of the other starters, having another guy that should be ok throwing 2 innings available isn't a bad idea right now.
  20. jmlease1
    Yeah, I'd much rather he say something and it turns out to be nothing than him keep it to himself, play through it, and then it turns into something. Players can't be trusted to keep themselves safe; I'm pretty sure that Byron Buxton could lose a limb to a combine harvester and he'd still say he'd be able to play the next day if someone would just give him some duct tape. Hopefully this was a weird twinge or he just needed a skip in the rotation and he'll be feeling fine after throwing a bullpen or something.
  21. jmlease1
    This is exactly why I dismissed any idea of counting on Festa for 2026. As soon as he got the TOS diagnosis, you have to stop counting on him for anything. If and when he comes back, it's a bonus, not something you can plan for. Good luck to the Slim Reaper, hope he makes it back.
  22. jmlease1
    Blaming Royce Lewis's (and Jose Miranda's) struggles on Carlos Correa is one of the wilder statements I've ever seen at Twins Daily. Royce playing a little CF may have been a foolish decision, but the injury itself was one of the flukier flukes that ever fluked. And he came back from it in 2023, even finishing out the season on a high note with 4 homers in the playoffs. It's not "playing out of position" and it's not Carlos Correa. It's the accumulated damage of having a real injury issue every single year of his MLB career up until now (this season's was pretty minor) and blowing out a knee to miss 2021 as well. he's missed a ton of time, his physical superiority has diminished, and he doesn't have several seasons of consistent MLB experience to fall back on in making adjustments. It's taken him 5 seasons to reach 1000 ABs. That's the equivalent of about 2 full seasons, of which he's never played 1. Brooks Lee is only like 225 ABs behind him, despite 2 fewer seasons and some injuries of his own. It's the injuries. It's 100% the injuries. (Miranda fell apart because he got beaned. he was on a fine track in 2024 (when Carlos Correa was with the team), got beaned and the whole thing fell apart for him. He was a disaster last season, and clearly needed more time and distance, along with a fresh start; he does seem to have bounced back with SD...but I highly doubt that has anything to do with getting away from Carlos Correa, who was a big booster of his) It'll be interesting to see if the Twins are willing to send him down. They certainly have a reasonable option if Culpepper continues to progress well: bring up Culpepper, move Lee to 3B, use some combo of Gray/Kreidler to back up the left side. See if Royce can get it back together at AAA. He's only 27, so it wouldn't be shocking for him to get back on track. But it's been quite a while since he's been good at the plate.
  23. jmlease1
    Amazing night for Sabato. I'm not going to start thinking he's going to be a 1B solution in MLB for the Twins just yet, but good for him. Pretty remarkable work and good for Sabato for making people think about him as player, not giving up, and grinding his way to AAA. You never know with these things. Glad to see some guys getting deserved promotions; hope that means we might be done with the Outman Experiment and maybe Wallner will be heading to Saint Paul for a re-set. CJ Culpepper was also too good for AA if healthy, so I'll be interested to see how he does at AAA. Be nice to have another starting pitching prospect advancing in the much reviled "pipeline". Mercedes has felt like he should be a borderline Top 20 prospect at times. He's absolutely rolling right now at Ft. Myers...time for him to move up to Cedar Rapids? He's 21 now, and needs to start progressing up the ranks.
  24. jmlease1
    I was impressed with how Taj managed to settle down after a couple of high stress innings where he was struggling to locate in order to get through 2 effective innings. I think a year ago he would have had the meltdown game, walking 5 guys, throwing a couple of meatballs as "get over" pitches to try and buy a strike, and get hammered. That's good pitching. His stuff has never really been the question, and I liked how he fought through his troubles locating his pitches to manage the game. I'm not going to pretend the Nats are a murderer's row of hitters, but they have scored plenty of runs this season, so holding them down was nicely done. Wonderful start to the season for Taj, and he's been really important for the rotation. Keaschall is showing some signs that he might be working his way out of the hole. Love seeing a guy who has been struggling take a bunch of walks; that tells me he's got his head in the right place and trying to stay disciplined. Very pleased with Brooks Lee's night: he's been looking so much better at the plate the last month, and the doubles last night were a nice reward. If he can hit like this he'll be a valuable player, even if it's not at SS. (I think his defense will play just fine at 3B or 2B) Larnach is having a very nice season. I was totally out on him at the start of the season, but he's been absolutely doing the job mashing RHP. The roster problem of too many LH OF bats remains (Larnach can't hit LHP any better than Wallner did, Outman isn't going to help there either) but at least we're getting real production from Larnach, the kind of mashing of RHP you need a platoon-type bat to do. He's even been back to form in the OF, looking awkward but effective. And Buck's homer...oh, my!
  25. jmlease1
    I still don't have a lot of belief that Sabato can become a real MLB option (and I know there are people rooting for him to fail since he was a Falvey pick), but I admire how he's ground away and continued to fight for a career in pro baseball and earned his way up to AAA. But you never know with baseball. And if some of these guys figure it out late and even become a platoon option for a couple of years...that's a good thing and I'm rooting for them. Trevor Plouffe didn't become a useful MLB player until he was 26 (he was 8 years into his pro career before he finally made the Opening Day roster); he needed 2 attempts with a lot of struggles and a position change before he could stick. He had 2 ok seasons, 2 really good seasons and then he was basically done and kicked around for 3 more seasons in MLB before hanging it up. You need those guys coming up through the system too; it's not just star or bust.
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