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  1. But that year barely counts, so let's call it 2019 to make it more impressive. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Pablo López: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K Home Runs: Alex Kirilloff (10) Top 3 WPA: Kyle Farmer (.165), Alex Kirilloff (.147), Louie Varland (.094) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) It was perhaps the most raucous night in Target Field history. With a playoff magic number down to 1, the Twins no longer had to TV-watch in the hopes that some other team could help their fortunes; they now commanded the situation, making a potential victory on Friday a clinching occasion. And, it was fitting that the man looking to lead Minnesota was the starter they acquired in an eternally controversial trade. Pablo López appeared dominant. He diced through the Angels early, either eliciting a strikeout or a groundout as LA’s hapless lineup fell over themselves with glee to get out. They were caught looking; they went down swinging. Even the one time they got on base was a 70 MPH lazy fly too lethargic to reach an outfielder. In every sense, they were overwhelmed. Minnesota’s offense, however, was energetic. From the beginning, there was a buzz surrounding their bats, fueling them; firing them up even after a quiet 1st. Silent no more, they took an inevitable lead when Michael A. Taylor shot a single into center field. So they added on in the 4th; Willi Castro blasted a triple out to left, and he would eventually be knocked in… with a walk. Unusual as it was, LA’s new bulk man—Davis Daniel—couldn’t find the strike zone if Vegas-style neon signs guided him to the plate. Balls begat walks; walks begat runs. Matt Wallner plated a run with a free pass before Alex Kirilloff knocked in a second one with a sacrifice fly. The three-run lead seemed a fortress. A baseball game can turn quickly, though, and an Angels offense that seemed impotent and stale suddenly turned. Jo Adell walked, setting up Jared Walsh to punish a López fastball thrown into the heart of the plate. If that were it, Minnesota would have still claimed the lead; but LA tacked on, riding López’s sudden lack of command for a trio of singles, turning the game tied when Nolan Schanuel’s opposite-field single fell safely into left. It was a sudden shock to the Twins’ system. The team appeared so in control of the game but found themselves tied with a squad only competent in half an inning. While Minnesota couldn’t answer in the 5th, they did in the 6th; Alex Kirilloff plastered a high-and-tight fastball deep enough into right to clear the overhang. The Twins had the lead again. It soon became a bullpen game. López fires off a scoreless 6th, giving way to the relief buzz saw that is Louie Varland in the 7th. He barely broke a sweat with a perfect inning. Instantly cooling was a breakthrough 8th—the kind of frame that decides the game and puts a manager at ease. Minnesota pummeled Jhonathan Diaz, sticking four runs on the lefty through a variety of methods. Most notably: yet another bases-loaded situation that turned into bonus runs. (This is quite the game to give a detailed playback if you didn’t notice). Somehow the runs didn’t discourage the Angels, though, as they struck back in the 8th with a two-run shot to slice the lead to three—making Jhoan Duran the likely candidate to end the game. If you thought that would be it, then you don't know Twins baseball. Duran indeed entered the game, but he soon labored. The strike zone was nebulous; his control sparse. He struck out the opening batter before entering into a prolonged Cold War, walking and allowing singles with un-Durian flair. Finally, after throwing God knows how many pitches, Duran coaxed the game-winning groundout, fielded by Edouard Julien, and transforming the Twins into the 2023 AL Central division champions. Notes: Alex Kirilloff’s homer gave the Twins 12 players with at least 10 homers on the year, a club record (the 2019 team had 11; Jake Cave was two away from being the 12th). Minnesota's 10 walks on Friday give them 557 on the year, good for the 12th most in franchise history. Pablo López's seven strikeouts pushed his season total to 228, tied with 1972 Bert Blyleven for the 9th-most in team history. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and Angels will play the second game of their weekend series on Saturday; Sonny Gray will take the mound with first pitch coming at 12:10 PM. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article
  2. Box Score Pablo López: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K Home Runs: Alex Kirilloff (10) Top 3 WPA: Kyle Farmer (.165), Alex Kirilloff (.147), Louie Varland (.094) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) It was perhaps the most raucous night in Target Field history. With a playoff magic number down to 1, the Twins no longer had to TV-watch in the hopes that some other team could help their fortunes; they now commanded the situation, making a potential victory on Friday a clinching occasion. And, it was fitting that the man looking to lead Minnesota was the starter they acquired in an eternally controversial trade. Pablo López appeared dominant. He diced through the Angels early, either eliciting a strikeout or a groundout as LA’s hapless lineup fell over themselves with glee to get out. They were caught looking; they went down swinging. Even the one time they got on base was a 70 MPH lazy fly too lethargic to reach an outfielder. In every sense, they were overwhelmed. Minnesota’s offense, however, was energetic. From the beginning, there was a buzz surrounding their bats, fueling them; firing them up even after a quiet 1st. Silent no more, they took an inevitable lead when Michael A. Taylor shot a single into center field. So they added on in the 4th; Willi Castro blasted a triple out to left, and he would eventually be knocked in… with a walk. Unusual as it was, LA’s new bulk man—Davis Daniel—couldn’t find the strike zone if Vegas-style neon signs guided him to the plate. Balls begat walks; walks begat runs. Matt Wallner plated a run with a free pass before Alex Kirilloff knocked in a second one with a sacrifice fly. The three-run lead seemed a fortress. A baseball game can turn quickly, though, and an Angels offense that seemed impotent and stale suddenly turned. Jo Adell walked, setting up Jared Walsh to punish a López fastball thrown into the heart of the plate. If that were it, Minnesota would have still claimed the lead; but LA tacked on, riding López’s sudden lack of command for a trio of singles, turning the game tied when Nolan Schanuel’s opposite-field single fell safely into left. It was a sudden shock to the Twins’ system. The team appeared so in control of the game but found themselves tied with a squad only competent in half an inning. While Minnesota couldn’t answer in the 5th, they did in the 6th; Alex Kirilloff plastered a high-and-tight fastball deep enough into right to clear the overhang. The Twins had the lead again. It soon became a bullpen game. López fires off a scoreless 6th, giving way to the relief buzz saw that is Louie Varland in the 7th. He barely broke a sweat with a perfect inning. Instantly cooling was a breakthrough 8th—the kind of frame that decides the game and puts a manager at ease. Minnesota pummeled Jhonathan Diaz, sticking four runs on the lefty through a variety of methods. Most notably: yet another bases-loaded situation that turned into bonus runs. (This is quite the game to give a detailed playback if you didn’t notice). Somehow the runs didn’t discourage the Angels, though, as they struck back in the 8th with a two-run shot to slice the lead to three—making Jhoan Duran the likely candidate to end the game. If you thought that would be it, then you don't know Twins baseball. Duran indeed entered the game, but he soon labored. The strike zone was nebulous; his control sparse. He struck out the opening batter before entering into a prolonged Cold War, walking and allowing singles with un-Durian flair. Finally, after throwing God knows how many pitches, Duran coaxed the game-winning groundout, fielded by Edouard Julien, and transforming the Twins into the 2023 AL Central division champions. Notes: Alex Kirilloff’s homer gave the Twins 12 players with at least 10 homers on the year, a club record (the 2019 team had 11; Jake Cave was two away from being the 12th). Minnesota's 10 walks on Friday give them 557 on the year, good for the 12th most in franchise history. Pablo López's seven strikeouts pushed his season total to 228, tied with 1972 Bert Blyleven for the 9th-most in team history. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and Angels will play the second game of their weekend series on Saturday; Sonny Gray will take the mound with first pitch coming at 12:10 PM. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
  3. 18 playoff losses in a row. 19 years since their last playoff victory. Twins fans have heard these sad and sorry answers to questions that they are sick and tired of getting asked. It's time to get some new answers, and for that we must ask some bold new questions. Here are the top three new questions that face the Twins as they head into the 2023 playoffs. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Twins Daily The Minnesota Twins are headed to the 2023 Major League Baseball Playoffs. This phrase should excite and inspire Twins fans of all generations, but the reality is that as the playoffs approach a Twins fan who knows history can't help but feel some fear and trembling. Nobody wants to face the potential for another year of failure, losses, records in futility, and missed opportunities. For those bold enough to ask new questions, however, the 2023 Twins present an exciting team with a real shot at making a run towards the World Series. The answers that Twins fans want to give this winter depend upon the Twins finding a way to tackle three key “new” questions during this postseason run. New Question #1: What will the Twins do to adjust their lineups for success when the lights aren't on? It would be easy to focus upon the pressure of full stadiums and bright lights when we get to playoff time, but the odds are that most of the Twins early rounds of playoff games will take place in the afternoon. Due to the fact that the Twins' fan base pales in comparison on a national scale, the prime time spots will probably go to other teams. Therefore, the Twins would do well to consider how to put their best mid-day roster forward as they seek to break the playoff losing streak. The Twins played 64 day games in the 2023 campaign before last week’s action, and the day/night splits provide considerable data worth reckoning with. In the day time, Matt Wallner rakes to a 1.004 OPS, while dropping to .753 when night falls. In another case of reverse-dracula splits, Alex Kirilloff achieved a .924 OPS during the sunlit hours while shrinking to .693 in the night time hours. The hero of our hearts, Royce Lewis, also is not immune to the hours of the day. Lewis slugged his way to an impressive 1.027 OPS at night, while only scrapping .749 during the day. Max Kepler rounds out our vampire statistics by hitting .945 OPS in the evening, while melting to .565 during afternoon play. Ryan Jeffers, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, and Michael A. Taylor all prefer the night when it comes to providing consistent offense. Will this keep them out of the playoff lineup during day game heavy series? No, but perhaps it should influence pinch hitting. Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, and Joey Gallo are the only Twins batters to show consistent performance as clearly in the night as they do during the day. We can argue about whether or not Buxton’s or Gallo’s current consistency is the kind we want in the playoffs. Julien is the only Twins guaranteed to be available at the moment, and has earned the right to be penciled in regardless of scheduled first pitch time. Pitchers are not immune to the sands in the hour glass either. In fact, the results bare out even starker splits. Those who show reverse-dracula splits (performing better in the daytime) are Brent Headrick (2.25 ERA in daytime/11.70 at night), Dylan Floro (2.57 ERA in daytime/9.39 at night), and Dallas Keuchel (2.21 ERA in daytime/11.70 at night)! While all three of those hurlers might not even be on the Twins pitching staff in the playoffs, maybe they should be if the Twins see multiple daytime games in the schedule. Emilio Pagan (6.12 ERA at night, 1.41 during the day), Kenta Maeda (5.40 ERA at night, 3.38 during the day), Sonny Gray (3.47 ERA at night, 2.02 during the day), and Pablo Lopez (4.25 ERA at night, 3.20 during the day) definitely will be on the roster, and their splits bode well for the Twins in the early rounds of the playoffs. The vampires of the Twins pitching staff are Caleb Theilbar (2.40 ERA during the day/ 1.46 at night) and Brock Stewart (1.74 ERA during the day/ 0.00 at night!), but their results are awesome any way you split it, and that bodes well for breaking the playoff curse as well! New Question #2: What "earns" a Twins player the right to be in the lineup for the 2023 playoffs? Even the casual Twins fan has noted that rookies are driving the offense in 2023, but will they still be in the lineup when Game 1 of the postseason finally rolls around? Lewis, Julien, Wallner, and even Kirilloff to a certain mathematical extent fit the rookie bill. Playoffs tend to tighten up the roster, and drive the opportunities towards the veterans who have paid their dues over the course of many seasons. For every Jeremy Pena, Randy Arozarena, and Kyle Schwarber there are hundreds of mid-level journeymen and all-star level veterans that take up the majority of playoff at-bats. The last time the Twins had a shot at winning a game in the postseason, Kirilloff surprisingly got the nod and sent Eddie Rosario to the pine. Kirilloff responded with a bases loaded pop up, and Rosario responded with an NL Championship MVP and World Series ring with the Braves. The trivia answer "the first player to make his major league debut in the postseason" was a neat story at the time for Kirilloff in 2020, but its not the narrative that is playing out in 2023. The main four Twins rookies this season have combined for 1,078 plate appearances (Lewis 227, Wallner 213, Julien 354, Kirilloff 284). Add in Trevor Larnach's 188 from early in the season when he was the one carrying the offense, and the Twins find themselves with rookie bats that have experienced an unusual amount of seasoning and responsibility come playoff time. One need look no further than the weeping and gnashing of teeth that ensued when rookie Lewis had to leave the game due to injury Tuesday night in order to determine just how important the young talent has been to the Twins success both now and into any potential playoff matchup. Manager Rocco Baldelli loves to pinch hit for these rookies based on pitching splits and game situations, but their success while in the lineup will be the necessary answer to the question "How did the Twins manage to start winning again in the playoffs in 2023?" Which brings us to the most vital new question facing the Twins in the coming weeks... New Question #3: Did the Twins win the season-long game of "injured list roulette"? Buxton, Maeda, Stewart, Gordon, Taylor, Kirilloff, Lewis, Polanco, Farmer, Alcala, Paddock, Gallo, Correa... In previous years, the focus might have been about who wasn't available for the playoff run. New Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta was brought in to change the question, and thereby change the Twins playoff answers. This hire didn't lead to less injuries, but it did lead to a shift in seasonal perspective. Time after time, a player's injury was discussed with the playoff timeline in mind regardless of how the club was doing at the time. How does this impact the 2023 playoff roster? Twins fans will have to wait for a few more weeks to tell for sure. We know that Buxton will get thrown into center field at some point in the next week, but we don't know if he will be healthy enough to stay there. For now, a DH turn on Thursday night became the first step. We know Stewart is coming back to the bullpen, but we don't know if he will be able to regain his crucial role there. Chris Paddock is pitching with explosive energy, but we don't know where in the roster he will fit and if his arm will be able to hold on for a few more weeks. Is Maeda trending up or down? Will Nick Gordon find a place in the field or on the base paths? Will Lewis, Correa, Polanco, and Kirilloff's respective bodies hold up to the challenge of extra weeks of baseball around the infield? Can Jorge Alcala find the strike zone when he returns, and will Joey Gallo keep pitches from beating him in the zone? Tyler Mahle and Jose Miranda won’t be helping the Twins break the curse. That much we know. Carlos Correa found his way to the injured list after his plantar fasciitis "popped" in Cincinnati, but as his teammates continue to point out: Carlos will not miss the playoffs even if he needs a wheelchair. Royce Lewis didn't find his way onto the IL in Cincinnati, but his presence for round one of the playoffs isn't a certainty. Again, the plan in place appears to be "get healthy for postseason" even with an outside chance of the second seed in front of the team. Even amidst all of this uncertainty, one thing is clear. The Twins hope to be the healthiest on paper that they have been all season long when the first pitch of Game 1 of the 2023 playoffs is thrown. That was their plan all along, and it looks like it worked to the best that it could have given the circumstances and the fact that baseball is 162 games of constant sprints, stops, throws and lunges. What do you think the answers will be as the Twins enter the 2023 playoffs? What questions did I miss? Now its your turn Twins Territory, let us know what your answers to these three bold new questions would be. What did I overstate? Anything I missed? What questions keep you up at night, and what potential answers help you to wake up in the morning? Ready or not, the 2023 playoffs are coming to Target Field. Here's to hoping that the Twins have what it takes to be ready to answer the bell whether it be day or night, rookie or veteran, full strength or walking wounded. View full article
  4. The Minnesota Twins are headed to the 2023 Major League Baseball Playoffs. This phrase should excite and inspire Twins fans of all generations, but the reality is that as the playoffs approach a Twins fan who knows history can't help but feel some fear and trembling. Nobody wants to face the potential for another year of failure, losses, records in futility, and missed opportunities. For those bold enough to ask new questions, however, the 2023 Twins present an exciting team with a real shot at making a run towards the World Series. The answers that Twins fans want to give this winter depend upon the Twins finding a way to tackle three key “new” questions during this postseason run. New Question #1: What will the Twins do to adjust their lineups for success when the lights aren't on? It would be easy to focus upon the pressure of full stadiums and bright lights when we get to playoff time, but the odds are that most of the Twins early rounds of playoff games will take place in the afternoon. Due to the fact that the Twins' fan base pales in comparison on a national scale, the prime time spots will probably go to other teams. Therefore, the Twins would do well to consider how to put their best mid-day roster forward as they seek to break the playoff losing streak. The Twins played 64 day games in the 2023 campaign before last week’s action, and the day/night splits provide considerable data worth reckoning with. In the day time, Matt Wallner rakes to a 1.004 OPS, while dropping to .753 when night falls. In another case of reverse-dracula splits, Alex Kirilloff achieved a .924 OPS during the sunlit hours while shrinking to .693 in the night time hours. The hero of our hearts, Royce Lewis, also is not immune to the hours of the day. Lewis slugged his way to an impressive 1.027 OPS at night, while only scrapping .749 during the day. Max Kepler rounds out our vampire statistics by hitting .945 OPS in the evening, while melting to .565 during afternoon play. Ryan Jeffers, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, and Michael A. Taylor all prefer the night when it comes to providing consistent offense. Will this keep them out of the playoff lineup during day game heavy series? No, but perhaps it should influence pinch hitting. Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, and Joey Gallo are the only Twins batters to show consistent performance as clearly in the night as they do during the day. We can argue about whether or not Buxton’s or Gallo’s current consistency is the kind we want in the playoffs. Julien is the only Twins guaranteed to be available at the moment, and has earned the right to be penciled in regardless of scheduled first pitch time. Pitchers are not immune to the sands in the hour glass either. In fact, the results bare out even starker splits. Those who show reverse-dracula splits (performing better in the daytime) are Brent Headrick (2.25 ERA in daytime/11.70 at night), Dylan Floro (2.57 ERA in daytime/9.39 at night), and Dallas Keuchel (2.21 ERA in daytime/11.70 at night)! While all three of those hurlers might not even be on the Twins pitching staff in the playoffs, maybe they should be if the Twins see multiple daytime games in the schedule. Emilio Pagan (6.12 ERA at night, 1.41 during the day), Kenta Maeda (5.40 ERA at night, 3.38 during the day), Sonny Gray (3.47 ERA at night, 2.02 during the day), and Pablo Lopez (4.25 ERA at night, 3.20 during the day) definitely will be on the roster, and their splits bode well for the Twins in the early rounds of the playoffs. The vampires of the Twins pitching staff are Caleb Theilbar (2.40 ERA during the day/ 1.46 at night) and Brock Stewart (1.74 ERA during the day/ 0.00 at night!), but their results are awesome any way you split it, and that bodes well for breaking the playoff curse as well! New Question #2: What "earns" a Twins player the right to be in the lineup for the 2023 playoffs? Even the casual Twins fan has noted that rookies are driving the offense in 2023, but will they still be in the lineup when Game 1 of the postseason finally rolls around? Lewis, Julien, Wallner, and even Kirilloff to a certain mathematical extent fit the rookie bill. Playoffs tend to tighten up the roster, and drive the opportunities towards the veterans who have paid their dues over the course of many seasons. For every Jeremy Pena, Randy Arozarena, and Kyle Schwarber there are hundreds of mid-level journeymen and all-star level veterans that take up the majority of playoff at-bats. The last time the Twins had a shot at winning a game in the postseason, Kirilloff surprisingly got the nod and sent Eddie Rosario to the pine. Kirilloff responded with a bases loaded pop up, and Rosario responded with an NL Championship MVP and World Series ring with the Braves. The trivia answer "the first player to make his major league debut in the postseason" was a neat story at the time for Kirilloff in 2020, but its not the narrative that is playing out in 2023. The main four Twins rookies this season have combined for 1,078 plate appearances (Lewis 227, Wallner 213, Julien 354, Kirilloff 284). Add in Trevor Larnach's 188 from early in the season when he was the one carrying the offense, and the Twins find themselves with rookie bats that have experienced an unusual amount of seasoning and responsibility come playoff time. One need look no further than the weeping and gnashing of teeth that ensued when rookie Lewis had to leave the game due to injury Tuesday night in order to determine just how important the young talent has been to the Twins success both now and into any potential playoff matchup. Manager Rocco Baldelli loves to pinch hit for these rookies based on pitching splits and game situations, but their success while in the lineup will be the necessary answer to the question "How did the Twins manage to start winning again in the playoffs in 2023?" Which brings us to the most vital new question facing the Twins in the coming weeks... New Question #3: Did the Twins win the season-long game of "injured list roulette"? Buxton, Maeda, Stewart, Gordon, Taylor, Kirilloff, Lewis, Polanco, Farmer, Alcala, Paddock, Gallo, Correa... In previous years, the focus might have been about who wasn't available for the playoff run. New Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta was brought in to change the question, and thereby change the Twins playoff answers. This hire didn't lead to less injuries, but it did lead to a shift in seasonal perspective. Time after time, a player's injury was discussed with the playoff timeline in mind regardless of how the club was doing at the time. How does this impact the 2023 playoff roster? Twins fans will have to wait for a few more weeks to tell for sure. We know that Buxton will get thrown into center field at some point in the next week, but we don't know if he will be healthy enough to stay there. For now, a DH turn on Thursday night became the first step. We know Stewart is coming back to the bullpen, but we don't know if he will be able to regain his crucial role there. Chris Paddock is pitching with explosive energy, but we don't know where in the roster he will fit and if his arm will be able to hold on for a few more weeks. Is Maeda trending up or down? Will Nick Gordon find a place in the field or on the base paths? Will Lewis, Correa, Polanco, and Kirilloff's respective bodies hold up to the challenge of extra weeks of baseball around the infield? Can Jorge Alcala find the strike zone when he returns, and will Joey Gallo keep pitches from beating him in the zone? Tyler Mahle and Jose Miranda won’t be helping the Twins break the curse. That much we know. Carlos Correa found his way to the injured list after his plantar fasciitis "popped" in Cincinnati, but as his teammates continue to point out: Carlos will not miss the playoffs even if he needs a wheelchair. Royce Lewis didn't find his way onto the IL in Cincinnati, but his presence for round one of the playoffs isn't a certainty. Again, the plan in place appears to be "get healthy for postseason" even with an outside chance of the second seed in front of the team. Even amidst all of this uncertainty, one thing is clear. The Twins hope to be the healthiest on paper that they have been all season long when the first pitch of Game 1 of the 2023 playoffs is thrown. That was their plan all along, and it looks like it worked to the best that it could have given the circumstances and the fact that baseball is 162 games of constant sprints, stops, throws and lunges. What do you think the answers will be as the Twins enter the 2023 playoffs? What questions did I miss? Now its your turn Twins Territory, let us know what your answers to these three bold new questions would be. What did I overstate? Anything I missed? What questions keep you up at night, and what potential answers help you to wake up in the morning? Ready or not, the 2023 playoffs are coming to Target Field. Here's to hoping that the Twins have what it takes to be ready to answer the bell whether it be day or night, rookie or veteran, full strength or walking wounded.
  5. Pinch-hitting was a disaster for the Twins at the beginning of the year. However, they're still one of the best teams in the league at it. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports If you ask a Twins fan, “What does Rocco Baldelli love more than anything else?” you’ll probably hear some form of “make substitutions” as a response. Depending on the fan, that response could have any level of emotion to it. Love it or hate it, Rocco loves himself some substitutions. His strategy of trying to win right now—with less concern about what will happen later in the game—has led to the Twins pinch-hitting the third most times in the league in 2023 (and the tenth most pinch-running). He especially likes platoon swaps in-game, sometimes rolling out total line changes when the opponent brings in a left-handed reliever with as many as four pinch hitters. The rationale is straightforward. Left-handed hitters struggle against left-handed pitchers. The lefty greats are usable against same-handed pitchers, but none can do nearly the same amount of damage that they can against righties. Even an average righty hitter could be the better choice in that case. Those average righties can start against left-handed pitchers, too. After the opposing lefty leaves, a manager can bring in all of the left-handed hitters and maintain a strong lineup. Baldelli has undoubtedly bought into that idea. As early as Opening Day, the play was on. In the sixth inning, Kyle Farmer hit for Nick Gordon against lefty Amir Garrett and walked. Donovan Solano then hit for Joey Gallo and singled, driving in Trevor Larnach for the season’s first run. They finished the last four innings at second and first base, respectively. The strategy was off to a good start. After Opening Day, though: yeesh. In a June 30th mailbag, Athletic writer Aaron Gleeman reported that although the Twins had used the second-most pinch hitters in MLB to that point in the season (91 in 82 games), they ranked 26th in OPS at a paltry .496. That’s a pretty abysmal performance. For reference, Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien—players who have essentially been banned from hitting against lefties this season—have a .470 and .452 OPS against left-handed pitchers, respectively. They were only marginally worse than all pinch hitters to that point in the season. Against lefties specifically, Minnesota had the 28th-highest OPS from pinch hitters: .490. At that point, fans and team personnel had to question whether the lineup jumbling and complicated role structure on the team was worth the effort. Why not just let the young lefties play the whole game? Did they need to go through all this effort just to get a different version of a bad result? Fast-forward to mid-September. It’s been two and a half months since that low point. The Twins currently have a .723 OPS from their pinch hitters on the season, just a hair under the MLB average for all hitters. That’s good for eighth in the league. Somehow, after all that struggle and consternation, the Twins have cracked the top ten. From the beginning of July through September 15th, Twins pinch hitters had 80 plate appearances (third in MLB) with a .997 OPS (second in MLB) and a 170 wRC+ (best in MLB). Their pinch hitters have been on an absolute tear. That includes a .785 OPS (sixth in MLB) against lefties from their pinch hitters. Now, 80 plate appearances is little to go off. It’s a month’s worth of plate appearances for a full-time player. However, it does provide hope that the big-bench, pinch-hitting approach can work in the playoffs. 11 different players had pinch-hit since the beginning of July, and only Solano, Matt Wallner, and Christian Vazquez had an OPS below .750 during that time. Admittedly, fans can count on one hand the number of times many of the names at the top of the list have pinch-hit—two for Jorge Polanco, three for Ryan Jeffers, and so on. However, other than Donovan Solano (11 plate appearances), who has otherwise been the paragon of consistency on this team, the guys the Twins will look to as pinch hitters have performed well. Jordan Luplow (11 PA) and Kyle Farmer (10 PA) will be looked to mid-game against lefties, and they have a 1.260 and .800 OPS, respectively, as pinch hitters. Edouard Julien (11 PA) would be considered a substitution if he sits against a lefty starter, and he’s had a .909 OPS as a pinch hitter since the beginning of July. Of course, these are small samples, and dividing it amongst individual hitters isn’t an entirely meaningful analytical exercise. However, the practice of pinch-hitting has helped the team throughout the year, especially in the second half. There is reason to feel trepidation about Baldelli opening up his bench during playoff games. An early move that doesn’t work out can kneecap a team later in the game. There is a general pinch-hitter penalty for batters, as coming in cold off the bench isn’t an ideal way to prepare for a plate appearance. However, it’s been working lately. Some have suggested that players have adapted to the unorthodox style, and there’s something to be said for a learning curve. No one truly has a day off on these Twins teams. If it’s a system that a player is unfamiliar with, it might take a while to adjust. In this small sample, they have adjusted. Or it’s just noise. I won’t sit here and declare it fixed or a brilliant strategy. It’s just worth remembering that the practice hasn’t been as comically bad as it initially seemed. In the Wild Card, there might be a total of five such pinch hits. Who knows if it will actually work, but recent performance has me hopeful that it will. View full article
  6. If you ask a Twins fan, “What does Rocco Baldelli love more than anything else?” you’ll probably hear some form of “make substitutions” as a response. Depending on the fan, that response could have any level of emotion to it. Love it or hate it, Rocco loves himself some substitutions. His strategy of trying to win right now—with less concern about what will happen later in the game—has led to the Twins pinch-hitting the third most times in the league in 2023 (and the tenth most pinch-running). He especially likes platoon swaps in-game, sometimes rolling out total line changes when the opponent brings in a left-handed reliever with as many as four pinch hitters. The rationale is straightforward. Left-handed hitters struggle against left-handed pitchers. The lefty greats are usable against same-handed pitchers, but none can do nearly the same amount of damage that they can against righties. Even an average righty hitter could be the better choice in that case. Those average righties can start against left-handed pitchers, too. After the opposing lefty leaves, a manager can bring in all of the left-handed hitters and maintain a strong lineup. Baldelli has undoubtedly bought into that idea. As early as Opening Day, the play was on. In the sixth inning, Kyle Farmer hit for Nick Gordon against lefty Amir Garrett and walked. Donovan Solano then hit for Joey Gallo and singled, driving in Trevor Larnach for the season’s first run. They finished the last four innings at second and first base, respectively. The strategy was off to a good start. After Opening Day, though: yeesh. In a June 30th mailbag, Athletic writer Aaron Gleeman reported that although the Twins had used the second-most pinch hitters in MLB to that point in the season (91 in 82 games), they ranked 26th in OPS at a paltry .496. That’s a pretty abysmal performance. For reference, Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien—players who have essentially been banned from hitting against lefties this season—have a .470 and .452 OPS against left-handed pitchers, respectively. They were only marginally worse than all pinch hitters to that point in the season. Against lefties specifically, Minnesota had the 28th-highest OPS from pinch hitters: .490. At that point, fans and team personnel had to question whether the lineup jumbling and complicated role structure on the team was worth the effort. Why not just let the young lefties play the whole game? Did they need to go through all this effort just to get a different version of a bad result? Fast-forward to mid-September. It’s been two and a half months since that low point. The Twins currently have a .723 OPS from their pinch hitters on the season, just a hair under the MLB average for all hitters. That’s good for eighth in the league. Somehow, after all that struggle and consternation, the Twins have cracked the top ten. From the beginning of July through September 15th, Twins pinch hitters had 80 plate appearances (third in MLB) with a .997 OPS (second in MLB) and a 170 wRC+ (best in MLB). Their pinch hitters have been on an absolute tear. That includes a .785 OPS (sixth in MLB) against lefties from their pinch hitters. Now, 80 plate appearances is little to go off. It’s a month’s worth of plate appearances for a full-time player. However, it does provide hope that the big-bench, pinch-hitting approach can work in the playoffs. 11 different players had pinch-hit since the beginning of July, and only Solano, Matt Wallner, and Christian Vazquez had an OPS below .750 during that time. Admittedly, fans can count on one hand the number of times many of the names at the top of the list have pinch-hit—two for Jorge Polanco, three for Ryan Jeffers, and so on. However, other than Donovan Solano (11 plate appearances), who has otherwise been the paragon of consistency on this team, the guys the Twins will look to as pinch hitters have performed well. Jordan Luplow (11 PA) and Kyle Farmer (10 PA) will be looked to mid-game against lefties, and they have a 1.260 and .800 OPS, respectively, as pinch hitters. Edouard Julien (11 PA) would be considered a substitution if he sits against a lefty starter, and he’s had a .909 OPS as a pinch hitter since the beginning of July. Of course, these are small samples, and dividing it amongst individual hitters isn’t an entirely meaningful analytical exercise. However, the practice of pinch-hitting has helped the team throughout the year, especially in the second half. There is reason to feel trepidation about Baldelli opening up his bench during playoff games. An early move that doesn’t work out can kneecap a team later in the game. There is a general pinch-hitter penalty for batters, as coming in cold off the bench isn’t an ideal way to prepare for a plate appearance. However, it’s been working lately. Some have suggested that players have adapted to the unorthodox style, and there’s something to be said for a learning curve. No one truly has a day off on these Twins teams. If it’s a system that a player is unfamiliar with, it might take a while to adjust. In this small sample, they have adjusted. Or it’s just noise. I won’t sit here and declare it fixed or a brilliant strategy. It’s just worth remembering that the practice hasn’t been as comically bad as it initially seemed. In the Wild Card, there might be a total of five such pinch hits. Who knows if it will actually work, but recent performance has me hopeful that it will.
  7. Twins rookie Matt Wallner is enduring his first set of prolonged offensive struggles at the Major League level. Can Wallner return to form before the start of the playoffs? Or will his spot on the Twins' playoff roster get taken by someone else? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker - USA TODAY Sports A young player's first full season in Major League Baseball is often a story of ups and downs. It is a yin-and-yang relationship where the highest of highs tend to get followed up by the lowest of lows. That phenomenon is currently happening to Twins rookie outfielder Matt Wallner. Wallner, 25, made his Major League debut for the Twins in mid-September of the 2022 season, hitting .228/.323/.386 (.709) with 13 hits, two home runs, and a 103 wRC+ over 65 plate appearances. The toolsy outfielder was impressive during his first cup of coffee at the Major League level, but making meaningful conclusions over such a short sample size would be malpractice. The early portion of the 2023 season saw him making multiple trips east and west along I-94. Wallner started the 2023 season with the St. Paul Saints and was eventually called up by the Twins on April 9 to replace a then-injured Max Kepler, who was placed on the 10-day IL on April 8. He played in six games for the Twins and couldn't generate a hit in 11 plate appearances before getting optioned back over to St. Paul on April 15. The Twins then recalled Wallner a second time on May 23, and he performed exceptionally well, hitting .636/.714/1.000 (1.714) with seven hits, one home run, and a 364 wRC+ over 14 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he was sent over to the 651 once again. Over the next month and a half, Wallner hit well enough that most Twins fans wondered why he wasn't getting an opportunity over then-struggling left-handed hitting corner outfielders Trevor Larnach, Joey Gallo, and Max Kepler. Finally, on July 17, Wallner again got promoted from Triple-A St. Paul and has been with the Major League club ever since. Wallner started his third stint off hot, hitting .238/.333/.571 (.904) with 15 hits, six home runs, and a well-above-league average wRC+ of 145 from July 17 to August 6. He capped off this hot stretch with a walk-off home run off Arizona Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald. The Twins, their fans, and Wallner himself were riding a high and reasonably so. A young, highly-touted prospect finally got an opportunity to contribute to his home-state team and was performing incredibly well. Why wouldn't everyone celebrate Unfortunately, Wallner's walk-off against the Diamondbacks marked the beginning of a downward spiral that has many questioning his short and long-term future with the Twins. To put Wallner's struggles into perspective, here are his numbers since August 7: Wallner - .172/.308/.391 (.699), 104 PA, 15 hits, two doubles, one triple, five home runs, 10.6% BB%, 35.6% K%, .218 ISO, .222 BABIP, 96 wRC+ Wallner hasn't performed terribly in this stretch, but it is arguably the worst month-long stretch of his career. To condense the sample size provided even more, here are Wallner's numbers since September 1: Wallner - .154/.333/.269 (.602), 33 PA, four hits, one home run, 21.2% BB%, 36.4% K%, .115 ISO, .231 BABIP, 81 wRC+ Offensively, he is struggling immensely as of late, and his ballooned K% of 36.4% and exaggerated swing-and-miss profile have many Twins fans derogatorily dubbing Wallner as a young version of Gallo. So, what is happening to Wallner? Let's take a look. Increased Swing-and-Miss Rate To begin, Wallner swings and misses at a lot of pitches, and while this isn't an inherently bad thing (see: Edouard Julien), the amount in which Wallner swings and misses on pitches is alarming. The best way to illustrate Wallner's swing-and-miss problem is through using the batting statistic titled Whiff%, which is a statistic that divides a hitter's total number of swings and misses by their total number of swings. Wallner currently possesses a Whiff% of 37.1% on fastballs, 43.1% on breaking balls, and 28.1% on off-speed pitches. Combined, Wallner's overall Whiff% sits at 37.5%. To go back to the Gallo comparison, Gallo currently possesses a Whiff% of 37.1% on fastballs, 50.6% on breaking balls, and 58.4% on offspeed pitches. Nobody in modern baseball has as high of a Whiff% of Gallo and his 1st-percentile Whiff%, but Wallner is alarmingly close, particularly on fastballs, where he has an identical Whiff% as Gallo of 37.1%. Wallner has struggled hitting fastballs as of late, but there is reason to believe he can quickly overcome this specific shortcoming at a relatively quick pace. Hitters tend to be able to make the appropriate adjustments on fastballs as they typically need to make slight revisions to both their timing and swing paths. Wallner should be able to make the adjustments, and while it likely will not happen this season, an offseason of tinkering with his swing should help him catch up to fastballs at a sustainable rate. What is alarming is that Wallner has a Whiff% of 43.1% on breaking balls. Hitters are less likely to make quick and relatively simple adjustments and suddenly be able to hit breaking balls like they can with fastballs. There is much more nuance to hitting breaking balls, and an extreme overhaul of Wallner's swing may be necessary. While this overhaul will not happen this late in the season, it is something to monitor this upcoming offseason, and it will be interesting to see how Wallner's stance and swing plane look next Spring Training. Until then, all the Twins can do is work with the player they have now. And while teams will continue to attack Wallner with both fastballs and breaking balls, there is reason to believe he can make the necessary short-term adjustments, particularly with fastballs, to help him perform more like the player he was in late July and early August. Wallner may need to simplify his stance and shorten his swing to get the most out of his at-bats for the rest of the season, and that may come at the expense of some power, but that is a trade-off that Wallner and the Twins would likely accept with open arms for the time being. Are Wallner's Struggles Simply Him Being a Young Player? Young players struggling, especially those of the power-hitting variety, is in no way an uncommon phenomenon as other young Twins hitters in Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Willi Castro, and the previously mentioned Julien either have or currently are undergoing offensive struggles of their own. What separates young players who can stay at the Major League level (i.e., Kirilloff and Lewis) and those who end up stuck in the constant limbo of being a Quad-A player (i.e., Celestino and Larnach) is whether they can make the necessary adjustments needed to be able to hit Major League pitching at a satisfactory rate. Wallner may be enduring the same struggles that every young player does, and he may be able to turn the corner and become a consistent contributor for the Twins for seasons to come. Unfortunately, the timing of his struggles at the plate couldn't have happened at a more inopportune time. The Twins are all but set to make their first postseason appearance since 2020, and the complicated judgment of who makes the playoff roster and who gets left off will soon need to be made by Twins decision-makers. A month ago, it seemed like Wallner was a near lock to make the roster, but that once obvious decision has become much cloudier as Wallner continues to struggle. Should Wallner Make the Twins Playoff Roster? To answer this question, we must first examine how the Twins outfield will likely look come playoff time. Currently, the Twins outfield options include Wallner, Kepler, Castro, Kirilloff, Celestino, Jordan Luplow, and Andrew Stevenson. Other potential outfield options include players on the injured list: Gallo, Nick Gordon, Byron Buxton, and Michael A. Taylor. Prospect Austin Martin is another option, but the Twins adding him to the 40-man roster and throwing him into action in the middle of a pennant race feels highly unlikely. Looking at the Twins' current outfield situation, Kepler, Castro, Kirilloff, and Luplow feel like locks to make the playoff roster. Luplow is strictly a right-handed platoon player, but his archetype is all too valuable in the playoffs. Celestino is only on the roster to take up space until Jorge Polanco returns from the bereavement list, and Stevenson could make the playoff roster, but he feels like a long shot. It always takes work to get a read on where players are regarding their health. Yet, when discussing Gallo, Buxton, Gordon, and Taylor, it feels like Taylor is a lock to make the playoff roster, while the potentially soon-to-return Gallo and Gordon could make it if injuries pile up. But unless that happens, Gordon and Gallo also feel like long shots. Buxton is a unique case; there is no reason to speculate until the Twins provide official updates. As things stand, Wallner is likely on track to make the playoff roster alongside fellow outfield options Kepler, Castro, Kirilloff, Luplow, and Taylor. If Wallner continues to struggle and a veteran like Buxton, Gallo, or Gordon returns from the injured list and produces, or if Stevenson begins to produce more offensively, Wallner's status could change. Come Game One of the Wild Card Series, the Twins will likely start Taylor in center field and Kepler in right field. Who will start in left field is still open for the taking, and if Wallner continues to struggle, don't be surprised if Castro, Luplow, or Kirilloff start in left field come October 3. Wallner's first stretch of prolonged struggles were expected, but the timing could not have been more unfortunate for the young Minnesota native. What do you make of Wallner's struggles? Does he deserve to make the Twins playoff roster? Comment below. View full article
  8. The 2023 Twins may not accumulate the type of win total that really get fanbases fired up, but taken for the sum of their parts, they represent the best chance for a Twins playoff run in arguably decades. If you're a casual fan who's been waiting for the Twins bandwagon to be worth joining, here's your chance. Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Casual fans are the lifeblood of this country. They don't take things too personally, they don't experience the highs and lows obsessive fans do, and they generally have richer, fuller lives. The ultra-fans of musicians, politicians, celebrities, and sports teams are a pestilence whose maniacal need to defend their chosen cultural obsession is tired at this point. I am part of that pestilence, with my obsessive fandom revolving around the Minnesota Twins. I'm a native Minnesotan and something in my neurodivergent brain was drawn to baseball- the rest is history. I live and die on every pitch, which is at least better than living and dying on every tweet from and about some celebrity (I might be fooling myself). The casual fan is beset with fandom requests- they don't care and continue making genuine contributions to society. They should be commended for their restraint and perspective. But they'll like this Twins team. Casual fans will watch a crucial September game if it fits their schedule. And they love playoff runs. The critical games in September are hopefully over with Cleveland repeatedly tripping over themselves, but a playoff run should be the expectation for this team. The Twins are hitting well as a group right now. Edouard Julien has been a revelation as a leadoff hitter, with the league's best chase percentage. Max Kepler has reemerged, this time as the primary cleanup hitter. He's been one of baseball's top five right fielders since July, after a brutal start that left many fans and analysts calling for him to be cut loose from the team (not this one). Jorge Polanco has returned from several injuries to be a pest with power from both sides of the plate. He's been perpetually underrated as an unassuming star for several years now. Carlos Correa is starting to pick it up despite ongoing issues with plantar fasciitis, still plays a good shortstop, and has hit the seventh most home runs (18) in postseason history, tied with Reggie Jackson and Mickey Mantle. Ryan Jeffers has cooled off a bit but still ranks first among catchers in OPS. He hasn't played as much as the elite two-way catchers (of which there are maybe three), but factoring in his above-average defense and game-calling, Jeffers has a claim as one of the most valuable Twins (he does have the highest bWAR among Twins hitters). Matt Wallner is going through a rough patch right now, but his numbers are still decent overall, and he does possess what the old-school scouts call light tower power. When he connects, the ball is gone. Alex Kirilloff is back and has looked good thus far, with some hard balls hit to left-center. When on his game, Kirilloff offers power to all fields, excellent plate coverage, and, new this year, a keen batting eye. He gives me toned-down Mark Teixiera vibes. His health is always a question, but he can usually go a month before something breaks down, so he's lined up pretty well to at least get to October. Michael A. Taylor is a great guy to root for, given his personality and charitable work on rare diseases. He also plays excellent center field defense and hits home runs! Willi Castro plays everywhere, gets clutch hits, and steals bases! The guy we traded Luis Arraez for, Pablo López, has been really good, bordering on Cy-Young contending while nearly pacing the league in strikeouts (the most for a Twins pitching season since Johan Santana). After he got back in gear in August, Sonny Gray has been even better. He represents, along with López, the best one-two punch the Twins have thrown out for a playoff series since Jack Morris and Scott Erickson. The closer, Jhoan Duran, is brilliant. He throws the fastest fastball in all of baseball, which isn't even his best pitch. That would be his curveball, one of the best pitches in baseball (when he's commanding it). The bullpen is full of guys who throw 98 MPH and expect reinforcements while already adding Louie Varland, the St. Paul kid who has thrown 100 MPH since converting to relief work. Then there's Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who have pitched like top-of-the-rotation starters at different points this year. I have yet to get to the most important hitter for the Twins this year, 35-year-old journeyman infielder Donovan Solano. Line drive after line drive off his bat has found outfield grass at crucial times this season, and his soft triple to center last week may have ended Cleveland's season. And yes, Byron Buxton is injured. He is trying to rehab to the point that he can play center field by the end of September, but it's anyone's guess when and if he'll be available. It would be great fun if he could contribute something, even just a base hit, this October. In short, there are a lot of hitters on this club who all do different things, supporting one of the better pitching staffs in recent memory. Key to it all will be Royce Lewis, who sports the charisma and clutch hitting that evokes memories of the one and only Kirby Puckett. He could go 0-75 down the stretch and still be seen as a threat every time he steps in with the game on the line. Home runs or fought-off sliders the other way, whatever you need, Lewis has it. There are reinforcements in the event of an ill-timed injury, too. Brooks Lee is among the top 20 prospects in baseball, a line drive machine drafted eighth overall just last year. Austin Martin had such a ranking at one point, too, and looks healthy again as a speedy on-base machine who sprays singles and doubles all over the park. Chris Paddack has been an excellent major league pitcher around his injuries and will join the team in a couple of weeks following a second Tommy John surgery. The team played poorly in the first half, and that will put a cap on their overall record when the year is done. But they have looked like a contender since the All-Star break, with the old core of players (Kepler, Polanco) blending into the new core (Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, Duran). They proved they had enough left-handed bats to cover the loss of Arraez, and with the addition of López, the starting staff is capable of holding down a seasoned and skilled October lineup- they even lead the league in pitcher strikeouts (although it should be noted that they also lead in hitting strikeouts). This will be an 85-win team, but that's different from who they are, especially in a short series. This is the best chance the Twins have had to win a playoff game since at least 2010, maybe even 2002. Teams respond well to removing monkeys from their backs; just ask the post-2004 Boston Red Sox, or last year's Mariners. The first game of the AL Wild Card series is October 3rd. All aboard. View full article
  9. Casual fans are the lifeblood of this country. They don't take things too personally, they don't experience the highs and lows obsessive fans do, and they generally have richer, fuller lives. The ultra-fans of musicians, politicians, celebrities, and sports teams are a pestilence whose maniacal need to defend their chosen cultural obsession is tired at this point. I am part of that pestilence, with my obsessive fandom revolving around the Minnesota Twins. I'm a native Minnesotan and something in my neurodivergent brain was drawn to baseball- the rest is history. I live and die on every pitch, which is at least better than living and dying on every tweet from and about some celebrity (I might be fooling myself). The casual fan is beset with fandom requests- they don't care and continue making genuine contributions to society. They should be commended for their restraint and perspective. But they'll like this Twins team. Casual fans will watch a crucial September game if it fits their schedule. And they love playoff runs. The critical games in September are hopefully over with Cleveland repeatedly tripping over themselves, but a playoff run should be the expectation for this team. The Twins are hitting well as a group right now. Edouard Julien has been a revelation as a leadoff hitter, with the league's best chase percentage. Max Kepler has reemerged, this time as the primary cleanup hitter. He's been one of baseball's top five right fielders since July, after a brutal start that left many fans and analysts calling for him to be cut loose from the team (not this one). Jorge Polanco has returned from several injuries to be a pest with power from both sides of the plate. He's been perpetually underrated as an unassuming star for several years now. Carlos Correa is starting to pick it up despite ongoing issues with plantar fasciitis, still plays a good shortstop, and has hit the seventh most home runs (18) in postseason history, tied with Reggie Jackson and Mickey Mantle. Ryan Jeffers has cooled off a bit but still ranks first among catchers in OPS. He hasn't played as much as the elite two-way catchers (of which there are maybe three), but factoring in his above-average defense and game-calling, Jeffers has a claim as one of the most valuable Twins (he does have the highest bWAR among Twins hitters). Matt Wallner is going through a rough patch right now, but his numbers are still decent overall, and he does possess what the old-school scouts call light tower power. When he connects, the ball is gone. Alex Kirilloff is back and has looked good thus far, with some hard balls hit to left-center. When on his game, Kirilloff offers power to all fields, excellent plate coverage, and, new this year, a keen batting eye. He gives me toned-down Mark Teixiera vibes. His health is always a question, but he can usually go a month before something breaks down, so he's lined up pretty well to at least get to October. Michael A. Taylor is a great guy to root for, given his personality and charitable work on rare diseases. He also plays excellent center field defense and hits home runs! Willi Castro plays everywhere, gets clutch hits, and steals bases! The guy we traded Luis Arraez for, Pablo López, has been really good, bordering on Cy-Young contending while nearly pacing the league in strikeouts (the most for a Twins pitching season since Johan Santana). After he got back in gear in August, Sonny Gray has been even better. He represents, along with López, the best one-two punch the Twins have thrown out for a playoff series since Jack Morris and Scott Erickson. The closer, Jhoan Duran, is brilliant. He throws the fastest fastball in all of baseball, which isn't even his best pitch. That would be his curveball, one of the best pitches in baseball (when he's commanding it). The bullpen is full of guys who throw 98 MPH and expect reinforcements while already adding Louie Varland, the St. Paul kid who has thrown 100 MPH since converting to relief work. Then there's Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who have pitched like top-of-the-rotation starters at different points this year. I have yet to get to the most important hitter for the Twins this year, 35-year-old journeyman infielder Donovan Solano. Line drive after line drive off his bat has found outfield grass at crucial times this season, and his soft triple to center last week may have ended Cleveland's season. And yes, Byron Buxton is injured. He is trying to rehab to the point that he can play center field by the end of September, but it's anyone's guess when and if he'll be available. It would be great fun if he could contribute something, even just a base hit, this October. In short, there are a lot of hitters on this club who all do different things, supporting one of the better pitching staffs in recent memory. Key to it all will be Royce Lewis, who sports the charisma and clutch hitting that evokes memories of the one and only Kirby Puckett. He could go 0-75 down the stretch and still be seen as a threat every time he steps in with the game on the line. Home runs or fought-off sliders the other way, whatever you need, Lewis has it. There are reinforcements in the event of an ill-timed injury, too. Brooks Lee is among the top 20 prospects in baseball, a line drive machine drafted eighth overall just last year. Austin Martin had such a ranking at one point, too, and looks healthy again as a speedy on-base machine who sprays singles and doubles all over the park. Chris Paddack has been an excellent major league pitcher around his injuries and will join the team in a couple of weeks following a second Tommy John surgery. The team played poorly in the first half, and that will put a cap on their overall record when the year is done. But they have looked like a contender since the All-Star break, with the old core of players (Kepler, Polanco) blending into the new core (Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, Duran). They proved they had enough left-handed bats to cover the loss of Arraez, and with the addition of López, the starting staff is capable of holding down a seasoned and skilled October lineup- they even lead the league in pitcher strikeouts (although it should be noted that they also lead in hitting strikeouts). This will be an 85-win team, but that's different from who they are, especially in a short series. This is the best chance the Twins have had to win a playoff game since at least 2010, maybe even 2002. Teams respond well to removing monkeys from their backs; just ask the post-2004 Boston Red Sox, or last year's Mariners. The first game of the AL Wild Card series is October 3rd. All aboard.
  10. A young player's first full season in Major League Baseball is often a story of ups and downs. It is a yin-and-yang relationship where the highest of highs tend to get followed up by the lowest of lows. That phenomenon is currently happening to Twins rookie outfielder Matt Wallner. Wallner, 25, made his Major League debut for the Twins in mid-September of the 2022 season, hitting .228/.323/.386 (.709) with 13 hits, two home runs, and a 103 wRC+ over 65 plate appearances. The toolsy outfielder was impressive during his first cup of coffee at the Major League level, but making meaningful conclusions over such a short sample size would be malpractice. The early portion of the 2023 season saw him making multiple trips east and west along I-94. Wallner started the 2023 season with the St. Paul Saints and was eventually called up by the Twins on April 9 to replace a then-injured Max Kepler, who was placed on the 10-day IL on April 8. He played in six games for the Twins and couldn't generate a hit in 11 plate appearances before getting optioned back over to St. Paul on April 15. The Twins then recalled Wallner a second time on May 23, and he performed exceptionally well, hitting .636/.714/1.000 (1.714) with seven hits, one home run, and a 364 wRC+ over 14 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he was sent over to the 651 once again. Over the next month and a half, Wallner hit well enough that most Twins fans wondered why he wasn't getting an opportunity over then-struggling left-handed hitting corner outfielders Trevor Larnach, Joey Gallo, and Max Kepler. Finally, on July 17, Wallner again got promoted from Triple-A St. Paul and has been with the Major League club ever since. Wallner started his third stint off hot, hitting .238/.333/.571 (.904) with 15 hits, six home runs, and a well-above-league average wRC+ of 145 from July 17 to August 6. He capped off this hot stretch with a walk-off home run off Arizona Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald. The Twins, their fans, and Wallner himself were riding a high and reasonably so. A young, highly-touted prospect finally got an opportunity to contribute to his home-state team and was performing incredibly well. Why wouldn't everyone celebrate Unfortunately, Wallner's walk-off against the Diamondbacks marked the beginning of a downward spiral that has many questioning his short and long-term future with the Twins. To put Wallner's struggles into perspective, here are his numbers since August 7: Wallner - .172/.308/.391 (.699), 104 PA, 15 hits, two doubles, one triple, five home runs, 10.6% BB%, 35.6% K%, .218 ISO, .222 BABIP, 96 wRC+ Wallner hasn't performed terribly in this stretch, but it is arguably the worst month-long stretch of his career. To condense the sample size provided even more, here are Wallner's numbers since September 1: Wallner - .154/.333/.269 (.602), 33 PA, four hits, one home run, 21.2% BB%, 36.4% K%, .115 ISO, .231 BABIP, 81 wRC+ Offensively, he is struggling immensely as of late, and his ballooned K% of 36.4% and exaggerated swing-and-miss profile have many Twins fans derogatorily dubbing Wallner as a young version of Gallo. So, what is happening to Wallner? Let's take a look. Increased Swing-and-Miss Rate To begin, Wallner swings and misses at a lot of pitches, and while this isn't an inherently bad thing (see: Edouard Julien), the amount in which Wallner swings and misses on pitches is alarming. The best way to illustrate Wallner's swing-and-miss problem is through using the batting statistic titled Whiff%, which is a statistic that divides a hitter's total number of swings and misses by their total number of swings. Wallner currently possesses a Whiff% of 37.1% on fastballs, 43.1% on breaking balls, and 28.1% on off-speed pitches. Combined, Wallner's overall Whiff% sits at 37.5%. To go back to the Gallo comparison, Gallo currently possesses a Whiff% of 37.1% on fastballs, 50.6% on breaking balls, and 58.4% on offspeed pitches. Nobody in modern baseball has as high of a Whiff% of Gallo and his 1st-percentile Whiff%, but Wallner is alarmingly close, particularly on fastballs, where he has an identical Whiff% as Gallo of 37.1%. Wallner has struggled hitting fastballs as of late, but there is reason to believe he can quickly overcome this specific shortcoming at a relatively quick pace. Hitters tend to be able to make the appropriate adjustments on fastballs as they typically need to make slight revisions to both their timing and swing paths. Wallner should be able to make the adjustments, and while it likely will not happen this season, an offseason of tinkering with his swing should help him catch up to fastballs at a sustainable rate. What is alarming is that Wallner has a Whiff% of 43.1% on breaking balls. Hitters are less likely to make quick and relatively simple adjustments and suddenly be able to hit breaking balls like they can with fastballs. There is much more nuance to hitting breaking balls, and an extreme overhaul of Wallner's swing may be necessary. While this overhaul will not happen this late in the season, it is something to monitor this upcoming offseason, and it will be interesting to see how Wallner's stance and swing plane look next Spring Training. Until then, all the Twins can do is work with the player they have now. And while teams will continue to attack Wallner with both fastballs and breaking balls, there is reason to believe he can make the necessary short-term adjustments, particularly with fastballs, to help him perform more like the player he was in late July and early August. Wallner may need to simplify his stance and shorten his swing to get the most out of his at-bats for the rest of the season, and that may come at the expense of some power, but that is a trade-off that Wallner and the Twins would likely accept with open arms for the time being. Are Wallner's Struggles Simply Him Being a Young Player? Young players struggling, especially those of the power-hitting variety, is in no way an uncommon phenomenon as other young Twins hitters in Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Willi Castro, and the previously mentioned Julien either have or currently are undergoing offensive struggles of their own. What separates young players who can stay at the Major League level (i.e., Kirilloff and Lewis) and those who end up stuck in the constant limbo of being a Quad-A player (i.e., Celestino and Larnach) is whether they can make the necessary adjustments needed to be able to hit Major League pitching at a satisfactory rate. Wallner may be enduring the same struggles that every young player does, and he may be able to turn the corner and become a consistent contributor for the Twins for seasons to come. Unfortunately, the timing of his struggles at the plate couldn't have happened at a more inopportune time. The Twins are all but set to make their first postseason appearance since 2020, and the complicated judgment of who makes the playoff roster and who gets left off will soon need to be made by Twins decision-makers. A month ago, it seemed like Wallner was a near lock to make the roster, but that once obvious decision has become much cloudier as Wallner continues to struggle. Should Wallner Make the Twins Playoff Roster? To answer this question, we must first examine how the Twins outfield will likely look come playoff time. Currently, the Twins outfield options include Wallner, Kepler, Castro, Kirilloff, Celestino, Jordan Luplow, and Andrew Stevenson. Other potential outfield options include players on the injured list: Gallo, Nick Gordon, Byron Buxton, and Michael A. Taylor. Prospect Austin Martin is another option, but the Twins adding him to the 40-man roster and throwing him into action in the middle of a pennant race feels highly unlikely. Looking at the Twins' current outfield situation, Kepler, Castro, Kirilloff, and Luplow feel like locks to make the playoff roster. Luplow is strictly a right-handed platoon player, but his archetype is all too valuable in the playoffs. Celestino is only on the roster to take up space until Jorge Polanco returns from the bereavement list, and Stevenson could make the playoff roster, but he feels like a long shot. It always takes work to get a read on where players are regarding their health. Yet, when discussing Gallo, Buxton, Gordon, and Taylor, it feels like Taylor is a lock to make the playoff roster, while the potentially soon-to-return Gallo and Gordon could make it if injuries pile up. But unless that happens, Gordon and Gallo also feel like long shots. Buxton is a unique case; there is no reason to speculate until the Twins provide official updates. As things stand, Wallner is likely on track to make the playoff roster alongside fellow outfield options Kepler, Castro, Kirilloff, Luplow, and Taylor. If Wallner continues to struggle and a veteran like Buxton, Gallo, or Gordon returns from the injured list and produces, or if Stevenson begins to produce more offensively, Wallner's status could change. Come Game One of the Wild Card Series, the Twins will likely start Taylor in center field and Kepler in right field. Who will start in left field is still open for the taking, and if Wallner continues to struggle, don't be surprised if Castro, Luplow, or Kirilloff start in left field come October 3. Wallner's first stretch of prolonged struggles were expected, but the timing could not have been more unfortunate for the young Minnesota native. What do you make of Wallner's struggles? Does he deserve to make the Twins playoff roster? Comment below.
  11. Pablo Lopez brought his Sunday best, setting two personal milestones on the mound, and the Twins still lost. Here's how this getaway dud of a game went down. Image courtesy of Michael McLoone - USA Today Box Score Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez - 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 14 K (106 Pitches, 73 Strikes, 69% Strikes) Home Runs: None Bottom WPA: Griffin Jax (-.410), Alex Kirilloff (-.178), Matt Wallner (-.140) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Sunday brought last-minute changes to the line-up, a pitching milestone, and the opening of the NFL season a few blocks down the street from Target Field. Jorge Polanco was placed on the bereavement list hours before game time, and Gilberto Celestino made his 2023 return to the ball club as the corresponding move. Donovan Solano took over at second base, bumping Edouard Julien into the DH spot. Pablo Lopez got the start one day after his "Los Twins" jersey was distributed to the masses. While the Vikings attempted to begin anew, the Twins were busy trying to finish off a series sweep. Fans of both teams were left wanting. It's Been "Pablo Day" All Year Long The first out of the game was a momentous one, as Lopez struck out his 200th batter of the season. Lopez became the ninth Twins to reach the feat, and it was his first season for such an accomplishment. 2018's version of Jose Berrios was the last Twin to achieve the mark, and Twins fans would agree that that if Lopez could reach a happy middle ground between Berrios and four-time 200 strikeout man Johan Santana, its going to be a good few seasons enjoying Lopez' contract extension! Lopez didn't stop at 200. Will he reach the 265 mark set by Santana in 2004? Probably not. But he's getting closer to his idol inning by inning. Scoring Runs is Hard to Do...Apparently Last year's opening day pitcher for the Mets, Tylor Megill (also known as former Twins pitcher Tyler's brother) tried to silence the Twins lineup. The first time through, all was quiet on the offensive front. In the bottom of the third, the second run through the lineup brought better plate appearances but still no runs. Alex Kirilloff laced a sinking liner to left, and Julien got caught in no-man's land between first and second, and was forced out at second on the trapped ball. Royce Lewis had a chance to open up the scoring with Castro on third, Kirilloff on second, and two outs, but a soft liner down the left field line landed just foul. Eventually Lewis squared up the ball, directly to the third baseman, and on to the middle innings we went still tied at 0-0. In Sunday games this season, the Twins have reflected their overall summer vibe. They've gone 11-12, averaging 3.91 runs per game. While this screams "average," in 10 of the 23 games the Twins have scored two or fewer runs. This is the offensive element that gives me the most pause heading into the playoff push. Lopez Keeps Dealing K's, but the Twins Bats Stay Quiet Maybe Lopez will reach Santana's record at this rate! He struck out the side in the fourth, and other than a hit batter he was spotless through five. The top of the sixth brought two more, to put Lopez's six inning total to 10 K's on only 77 pitches. Kirilloff's double-play ball to second ended a threat for the Twins in the bottom of the fifth, as Megill limited the Twins to two hits. Megill's pitch count was not nearly as tidy, however, and he was finished at 93 pitches after five innings of work. Mets Bullpen = Runs? Statistically speaking, the Mets bullpen has not enjoyed facing the Twins this week. In the first two games of the series, Mets relievers have surrendered eight runs in four innings of work. Phil Bickford got the call in the sixth, and he walked Lewis to start the inning. Max Kepler was next up, and Dick Bremer erroneously cried "Home Run wolf" for what felt like the 90th time this series, and as Kepler's ball failed to reach the warning track, Lewis scampered to third on the tag. With a runner at third, and less than two outs, the Twins were back in September's version of "bases loaded no outs" with Carlos Correa up at the plate. Correa fanned, putting the slumping Matt Wallner into the hero's spot. A weak pop fly to center ended yet another threat in a game where one run feels like 1,000,000. How Far Can He Go? With the Twins having placed themselves well into the driver's seat of the AL Central, one of the talking points heading into the final weeks of the season revolved around pitch counts and innings for the playoff-caliber starting staff. How far would Rocco Baldelli allow Lopez to go in this game? In the seventh inning, Lopez struck out two more on only 14 pitches, to equal his career high mark at 12 K's for the game. The eighth inning brought the Twins ace back onto the mound (or, perhaps it was the utter failure of the Twins offense that did it...). Two more strike outs, a career high 14 for the game, and the Target Field faithful who chose baseball over football today gave him a well-deserved standing ovation. Does Someone Want to Win This Game? Unfortunately the Mets did. Griffin Jax came in for the ninth, and immediately got Francisco Lindor to hit a weak fly ball to left. Wallner got there eventually, dove for it but for some reason turned his glove upside down at the exact moment the glove should have been open, and a gift double was the result. Jax then hit Jeff McNeil on an 0-2 pitch. Two batters later, DJ Stewart hit the ball a long ways to the gap and it was 2-0 Mets. Adam Ottavino entered to attempt the save. Correa greeted his second pitch with 110 mph of angst for a lead-off double. Wallner's offensive woes continued with a strike out. Trevor Larnach, your table is ready. Lopez's brilliant start was wasted, a winnable game was placed yet again on the Sunday afternoon disinterested offensive effort pile, and attention in Twins Territory can once again promptly turn towards yelling at the Vikings. Next Up The Twins look to avenge their mid-season sweep in Tampa Bay by sending RHP Sonny Gray (7-6, 2.98 ERA) up against his ERA doppleganger RHP Tyler Glasnow (8-5, 2.98 ERA). Thanks to Cleveland wasting a gem by their ace Tanner Bibee, the Twins still hold a 7.5 game lead on the AL Central and saw their magic number drop to 12 on Sunday. First pitch at Target Field is scheduled for 6:40pm CDT on Monday. Up-to-Date Standings AL Central W L Pct GB Minnesota 75 68 .524 0.0 Cleveland 68 76 .472 7.5 Post-Game Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Varland 43 0 0 20 0 63 Jax 0 0 8 0 24 32 Funderburk 11 0 0 15 0 26 Thielbar 0 0 15 10 0 25 Durán 0 0 14 0 0 14 Pagán 0 0 11 0 0 11 Floro 0 0 0 11 0 11 Headrick 0 0 0 0 0 0 Winder 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article
  12. Box Score Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez - 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 14 K (106 Pitches, 73 Strikes, 69% Strikes) Home Runs: None Bottom WPA: Griffin Jax (-.410), Alex Kirilloff (-.178), Matt Wallner (-.140) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Sunday brought last-minute changes to the line-up, a pitching milestone, and the opening of the NFL season a few blocks down the street from Target Field. Jorge Polanco was placed on the bereavement list hours before game time, and Gilberto Celestino made his 2023 return to the ball club as the corresponding move. Donovan Solano took over at second base, bumping Edouard Julien into the DH spot. Pablo Lopez got the start one day after his "Los Twins" jersey was distributed to the masses. While the Vikings attempted to begin anew, the Twins were busy trying to finish off a series sweep. Fans of both teams were left wanting. It's Been "Pablo Day" All Year Long The first out of the game was a momentous one, as Lopez struck out his 200th batter of the season. Lopez became the ninth Twins to reach the feat, and it was his first season for such an accomplishment. 2018's version of Jose Berrios was the last Twin to achieve the mark, and Twins fans would agree that that if Lopez could reach a happy middle ground between Berrios and four-time 200 strikeout man Johan Santana, its going to be a good few seasons enjoying Lopez' contract extension! Lopez didn't stop at 200. Will he reach the 265 mark set by Santana in 2004? Probably not. But he's getting closer to his idol inning by inning. Scoring Runs is Hard to Do...Apparently Last year's opening day pitcher for the Mets, Tylor Megill (also known as former Twins pitcher Tyler's brother) tried to silence the Twins lineup. The first time through, all was quiet on the offensive front. In the bottom of the third, the second run through the lineup brought better plate appearances but still no runs. Alex Kirilloff laced a sinking liner to left, and Julien got caught in no-man's land between first and second, and was forced out at second on the trapped ball. Royce Lewis had a chance to open up the scoring with Castro on third, Kirilloff on second, and two outs, but a soft liner down the left field line landed just foul. Eventually Lewis squared up the ball, directly to the third baseman, and on to the middle innings we went still tied at 0-0. In Sunday games this season, the Twins have reflected their overall summer vibe. They've gone 11-12, averaging 3.91 runs per game. While this screams "average," in 10 of the 23 games the Twins have scored two or fewer runs. This is the offensive element that gives me the most pause heading into the playoff push. Lopez Keeps Dealing K's, but the Twins Bats Stay Quiet Maybe Lopez will reach Santana's record at this rate! He struck out the side in the fourth, and other than a hit batter he was spotless through five. The top of the sixth brought two more, to put Lopez's six inning total to 10 K's on only 77 pitches. Kirilloff's double-play ball to second ended a threat for the Twins in the bottom of the fifth, as Megill limited the Twins to two hits. Megill's pitch count was not nearly as tidy, however, and he was finished at 93 pitches after five innings of work. Mets Bullpen = Runs? Statistically speaking, the Mets bullpen has not enjoyed facing the Twins this week. In the first two games of the series, Mets relievers have surrendered eight runs in four innings of work. Phil Bickford got the call in the sixth, and he walked Lewis to start the inning. Max Kepler was next up, and Dick Bremer erroneously cried "Home Run wolf" for what felt like the 90th time this series, and as Kepler's ball failed to reach the warning track, Lewis scampered to third on the tag. With a runner at third, and less than two outs, the Twins were back in September's version of "bases loaded no outs" with Carlos Correa up at the plate. Correa fanned, putting the slumping Matt Wallner into the hero's spot. A weak pop fly to center ended yet another threat in a game where one run feels like 1,000,000. How Far Can He Go? With the Twins having placed themselves well into the driver's seat of the AL Central, one of the talking points heading into the final weeks of the season revolved around pitch counts and innings for the playoff-caliber starting staff. How far would Rocco Baldelli allow Lopez to go in this game? In the seventh inning, Lopez struck out two more on only 14 pitches, to equal his career high mark at 12 K's for the game. The eighth inning brought the Twins ace back onto the mound (or, perhaps it was the utter failure of the Twins offense that did it...). Two more strike outs, a career high 14 for the game, and the Target Field faithful who chose baseball over football today gave him a well-deserved standing ovation. Does Someone Want to Win This Game? Unfortunately the Mets did. Griffin Jax came in for the ninth, and immediately got Francisco Lindor to hit a weak fly ball to left. Wallner got there eventually, dove for it but for some reason turned his glove upside down at the exact moment the glove should have been open, and a gift double was the result. Jax then hit Jeff McNeil on an 0-2 pitch. Two batters later, DJ Stewart hit the ball a long ways to the gap and it was 2-0 Mets. Adam Ottavino entered to attempt the save. Correa greeted his second pitch with 110 mph of angst for a lead-off double. Wallner's offensive woes continued with a strike out. Trevor Larnach, your table is ready. Lopez's brilliant start was wasted, a winnable game was placed yet again on the Sunday afternoon disinterested offensive effort pile, and attention in Twins Territory can once again promptly turn towards yelling at the Vikings. Next Up The Twins look to avenge their mid-season sweep in Tampa Bay by sending RHP Sonny Gray (7-6, 2.98 ERA) up against his ERA doppleganger RHP Tyler Glasnow (8-5, 2.98 ERA). Thanks to Cleveland wasting a gem by their ace Tanner Bibee, the Twins still hold a 7.5 game lead on the AL Central and saw their magic number drop to 12 on Sunday. First pitch at Target Field is scheduled for 6:40pm CDT on Monday. Up-to-Date Standings AL Central W L Pct GB Minnesota 75 68 .524 0.0 Cleveland 68 76 .472 7.5 Post-Game Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Varland 43 0 0 20 0 63 Jax 0 0 8 0 24 32 Funderburk 11 0 0 15 0 26 Thielbar 0 0 15 10 0 25 Durán 0 0 14 0 0 14 Pagán 0 0 11 0 0 11 Floro 0 0 0 11 0 11 Headrick 0 0 0 0 0 0 Winder 0 0 0 0 0 0
  13. As we near the end of the regular season, Minnesota hitters are showing some signs of life for fantasy players. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are 6-3 in September, and the offense has been a big reason why. Minnesota is averaging 6.8 runs per game this month, which included a 20-run outburst against Cleveland. There are a few guys fantasy players should focus on while the offense is hot. Carlos Correa (more on him below) is finally looking like himself, Royce Lewis has become a force at the plate and Alex Kirilloff is back at the party. The strong offensive performance raises the late-season outlooks of other Minnesota hitters as well, particularly Max Kepler, who has been locked in pretty much the entire second half and typically occupies a key lineup spot. We’ll explore the offense’s outlook for the week ahead in a bit more depth below. Let’s now take a look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also highlight some matchups to target and avoid this week. Twins Injury Updates Jorge Polanco Expected return: This week Polanco was placed on the bereavement list Sunday and will be away from the team for a few days. Gilberto Celestino was recalled from St. Paul to fill Polanco’s spot on the roster, but the former should be able to return soon, and he’s been performing well at the plate recently, too. Byron Buxton Expected return: September Buxton’s return remains a bit of a mystery. He was removed from his second rehab game on Sept. 1 with soreness in his right knee. Buxton has since been officially pulled from his rehab stint, and while it appears like a significant setback, the Twins haven’t ruled out his return this season. Michael A. Taylor Expected return: September Taylor remains out with a hamstring strain. He’s hopeful to return soon, but Willi Castro will continue filling in most of the time in center field until then. Brock Stewart Expected return: September Stewart tossed a 20-pitch bullpen session last week and felt good afterward. It’s unclear if a rehab assignment will follow or if the righty will continue to toss bullpens. Stewart could slot in as a key setup option if he’s able to return before the end of the year. Chris Paddack Expected return: Late September Paddack began a rehab assignment last week, tossing 54 pitches in his first game with Fort Myers. The righty is aiming for a Sept. 22 return to the majors, though he’ll likely work in a bullpen role instead of as a starter. Stock Rising: Carlos Correa ESPN ownership: 70% Late-season Carlos seems like officially a thing. The shortstop is batting .343 this month with two home runs and six RBI in nine games. Last year, as the Twins’ playoff hopes faded, Correa still batted .355 in the season’s final month with seven home runs and 19 RBI. If Correa gets on a roll like that, he could make the difference in many fantasy leagues down the stretch. Stock Falling: Joey Gallo ESPN ownership: 3% Gallo was pretty much already a fantasy afterthought, but he’s probably now fully off the radar for the rest of the year. He was placed on the injured list Friday with a foot contusion, which was convenient for the Twins with Kirilloff returning the same day. Whether Gallo is seriously hurt or not, it seems unlikely that he resurfaces with Minnesota unless there are more injuries. Gallo should not be on any fantasy rosters at this point. Prospect Spotlight: David Festa (Triple-A St. Paul) Festa was promoted to Triple-A at the end of August and he’s been good in two appearances for the Saints, allowing three earned runs across 9 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts. The righty is one of Minnesota’s top pitching prospects, and while he’s unlikely to make noise for the team this year, he could push for a rotation spot to begin 2024. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 3 Games vs Tampa (Tyler Glasnow, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley) 4 Games at Chicago White Sox (Jose Urena, Jesse Scholtens, Dylan Cease, Touki Toussaint) Minnesota has a big test with Tampa coming to town, followed by a matchup with the struggling White Sox. For both Minnesota pitchers and hitters, I’m focusing on the Chicago matchups, but there are some avenues to potentially exploit with the Rays. Two-Start Starting Pitchers Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan are each slated to start twice. Both have been solid all season, and they should be locked into fantasy lineups this week. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch Glasnow is the one spot I really don’t like this week, as he’s posted a solid 2.98 ERA so far and is coming off of a 13-strikeout performance. However, old friend Littell and Bradley are way less imposing, with the latter coming into the game with an ERA north of 5.00. Neither player has much of a history against the Twins, though you could definitely consider Minnesota stacks against the middling arms. The Chicago matchups look very enticing across the board. Urena has a career ERA of 4.90 and it’s been above 5.00 each of the last four seasons. Scholtens is 1-8 with a 4.38 ERA. Cease has struggled lately and has an ERA just a notch below 5.00. And Toussaint has a career ERA above 5.00 and hasn’t been much better this year. You could justify a Minnesota stack in any of these spots. Cease is the pitcher the Twins have seen the most, and Kepler has taken him deep three times in 25 career at-bats. Which Minnesota hitters do you expect the most from down the stretch? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week. View full article
  14. The Twins are 6-3 in September, and the offense has been a big reason why. Minnesota is averaging 6.8 runs per game this month, which included a 20-run outburst against Cleveland. There are a few guys fantasy players should focus on while the offense is hot. Carlos Correa (more on him below) is finally looking like himself, Royce Lewis has become a force at the plate and Alex Kirilloff is back at the party. The strong offensive performance raises the late-season outlooks of other Minnesota hitters as well, particularly Max Kepler, who has been locked in pretty much the entire second half and typically occupies a key lineup spot. We’ll explore the offense’s outlook for the week ahead in a bit more depth below. Let’s now take a look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also highlight some matchups to target and avoid this week. Twins Injury Updates Jorge Polanco Expected return: This week Polanco was placed on the bereavement list Sunday and will be away from the team for a few days. Gilberto Celestino was recalled from St. Paul to fill Polanco’s spot on the roster, but the former should be able to return soon, and he’s been performing well at the plate recently, too. Byron Buxton Expected return: September Buxton’s return remains a bit of a mystery. He was removed from his second rehab game on Sept. 1 with soreness in his right knee. Buxton has since been officially pulled from his rehab stint, and while it appears like a significant setback, the Twins haven’t ruled out his return this season. Michael A. Taylor Expected return: September Taylor remains out with a hamstring strain. He’s hopeful to return soon, but Willi Castro will continue filling in most of the time in center field until then. Brock Stewart Expected return: September Stewart tossed a 20-pitch bullpen session last week and felt good afterward. It’s unclear if a rehab assignment will follow or if the righty will continue to toss bullpens. Stewart could slot in as a key setup option if he’s able to return before the end of the year. Chris Paddack Expected return: Late September Paddack began a rehab assignment last week, tossing 54 pitches in his first game with Fort Myers. The righty is aiming for a Sept. 22 return to the majors, though he’ll likely work in a bullpen role instead of as a starter. Stock Rising: Carlos Correa ESPN ownership: 70% Late-season Carlos seems like officially a thing. The shortstop is batting .343 this month with two home runs and six RBI in nine games. Last year, as the Twins’ playoff hopes faded, Correa still batted .355 in the season’s final month with seven home runs and 19 RBI. If Correa gets on a roll like that, he could make the difference in many fantasy leagues down the stretch. Stock Falling: Joey Gallo ESPN ownership: 3% Gallo was pretty much already a fantasy afterthought, but he’s probably now fully off the radar for the rest of the year. He was placed on the injured list Friday with a foot contusion, which was convenient for the Twins with Kirilloff returning the same day. Whether Gallo is seriously hurt or not, it seems unlikely that he resurfaces with Minnesota unless there are more injuries. Gallo should not be on any fantasy rosters at this point. Prospect Spotlight: David Festa (Triple-A St. Paul) Festa was promoted to Triple-A at the end of August and he’s been good in two appearances for the Saints, allowing three earned runs across 9 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts. The righty is one of Minnesota’s top pitching prospects, and while he’s unlikely to make noise for the team this year, he could push for a rotation spot to begin 2024. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 3 Games vs Tampa (Tyler Glasnow, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley) 4 Games at Chicago White Sox (Jose Urena, Jesse Scholtens, Dylan Cease, Touki Toussaint) Minnesota has a big test with Tampa coming to town, followed by a matchup with the struggling White Sox. For both Minnesota pitchers and hitters, I’m focusing on the Chicago matchups, but there are some avenues to potentially exploit with the Rays. Two-Start Starting Pitchers Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan are each slated to start twice. Both have been solid all season, and they should be locked into fantasy lineups this week. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch Glasnow is the one spot I really don’t like this week, as he’s posted a solid 2.98 ERA so far and is coming off of a 13-strikeout performance. However, old friend Littell and Bradley are way less imposing, with the latter coming into the game with an ERA north of 5.00. Neither player has much of a history against the Twins, though you could definitely consider Minnesota stacks against the middling arms. The Chicago matchups look very enticing across the board. Urena has a career ERA of 4.90 and it’s been above 5.00 each of the last four seasons. Scholtens is 1-8 with a 4.38 ERA. Cease has struggled lately and has an ERA just a notch below 5.00. And Toussaint has a career ERA above 5.00 and hasn’t been much better this year. You could justify a Minnesota stack in any of these spots. Cease is the pitcher the Twins have seen the most, and Kepler has taken him deep three times in 25 career at-bats. Which Minnesota hitters do you expect the most from down the stretch? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.
  15. At the lower levels of the farm pitching was the narrative on Friday. St. Paul continued to pound out runs, and there was plenty of action to check in on throughout the Twins farm system on Friday. TRANSACTIONS 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff activated off rehab assignment from St. Paul. 1B/OF Joey Gallo placed on IL with a "foot contusion." SAINTS SENTINEL St. Paul 7, Louisville 6 Box Score Randy Dobnak was on the bump Friday for the Saints and worked five innings. He worked three strong innings before the Bats plated four in the fourth inning and ruined his line. Giving up six hits, Dobnak allowed six runs and four walks. He did strike out six on the evening as well. After scoring double-digits Thursday night, St. Paul didn’t waste time putting runs up on Friday. Brooks Lee opened the scoring with a first inning triple, his third, that brought home Michael Helman. Trevor Larnach then lifted a sacrifice fly that allowed Lee to jog the last 90 feet home. After a rehabbing Joey Votto doubled in the bottom of the first inning to tie things up, the Saints went back to work in the second inning. Chris Williams ripped a single that scored DaShawn Keirsey Jr. before Tony Wolters brought home Gilberto Celestino on a single of his own. In the third inning the Saints kept the runs coming when Wolters homered for just the third time this season. The three-run shot scored Anthony Prato and Williams to push St. Paul’s lead to 7-2. Louisville came charging back with four runs in the fourth inning against Dobnak. Jonathan India’s double plated two of the four, and the Saints lead was down to one. Austin Schulfer and Cole Sands both worked scoreless relief outings to keep the score as-is headed to the ninth inning. Former Twins reliever Alan Busenitz pitched the ninth inning for Louisville, and he got two outs before walking Celestino. Sands stayed on to finish the ninth inning and slammed the door. St. Paul got a three-hit game from Helman, while both Prato and Wolters added two of their own. WIND SURGE WISDOM Corpus Christi 8, Wichita 2 Box Score Marco Raya was taking another turn on Friday for the Wind Surge, and he worked 3 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball. Raya allowed only two hits while issuing no free passes. He struck out three during the outing. This one was a pitcher’s duel for much of the game. Willie Joe Garry Jr. grounded into a double play, but Aaron Sabato did come home and that gave Wichita a 1-0 lead in the second inning. The Hooks did tie it up in the bottom of the eighth against Regi Grace, and then a two-run homer put Corpus Christi ahead 3-1. Corpus Christi added another run on a solo blast in the sixth inning to make it 4-1, and a run in the seventh inning made it 5-1. Wichita needed to find an answer, and soon. Instead of responding with a run, the Wind Surge gave up three Corpus Christi runs in the eighth inning, only pushing the comeback reality further away. They couldn't find an answer in the ninth inning and a close game ballooned to a blowout. Looking to make things a bit more respectable, Yoyner Fajardo reached on an error in the ninth inning that allowed Dalton Shuffield to score. Although he didn't record a hit, Fajardo extended his on-base streak to 22 games. Schobel recorded two hits on the night. Alex Isola also had two hits, going 2-for-2 after he took over for Sabato. KERNELS NUGGETS Wisconsin 2, Cedar Rapids 1 Box Score Zebby Matthews was on the bump for Cedar Rapids on Friday. He turned in three scoreless innings allowing just a single hit, and a pair of walks. Matthews also struck out three Wisconsin batters. Mike Paredes worked two scoreless innings of relief, and then Gabriel Yanez turned in a pair of scoreless frames of his own. For some reason, Emmanuel Rodriguez was lifted for a pinch hitter in the third inning, and that will definitely be something to monitor. No one pushed across a run until the eighth inning when Noah Miller reached on an error that allowed Jeferson Morales to score. Ricardo Velez got the ninth inning and looked to slam the door. Wisconsin evened the score when Eric Brown Jr. singled in a run, and then Velez balked with Brown Jr. at third base to give away the victory. Only Luke Keaschall and Kyler Fedko recorded hits for the Kernels Friday night. MUSSEL MATTERS Fort Myers 7, Bradenton 5 Box Score Matt Gabbert, who signed with the Twins out of indy ball with Boise in the Pioneer League, made his first start Friday for the Mighty Mussels. He turned in five scoreless innings allowing just a single hit and a pair of walks. Gabbert also punched out six. The Mighty Mussels didn’t score until the fourth inning, but they added in a big way. Nate Baez singled home Ricardo Olivar and Danny De Andrade. Rubel Cespedes followed with a triple to drive in Baez, and Alec Sayre lofted a sacrifice fly to bring home Cespedes and make it a 4-0 game. In the fifth inning, Fort Myers tacked on more. Olivar doubled home both Jay Harry and Walker Jenkins to make it a 6-0 game. Cespedes then grabbed another hit, this time a single, and Olivar raced across the plate. The Marauders scored five in the eighth inning, and Fort Myers saw their lead quickly shrinking. Samuel Perez held on though, and the Mighty Mussels grabbed the victory. Both Baez and Cespedes had a pair of hits on the evening. Although Walker Jenkins didn’t record a hit, he did reach base with a walk. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Matt Gabbert (Fort Myers) - 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K Hitter of the Day – Tony Wolters (St. Paul) - 2-4, R, 4 RBI, HR(3), K PROSPECT SUMMARY We will again keep tabs on the Twins top prospects. You’ll probably read about them in the team sections, but if they aren’t there, you’ll see how they did here. Here’s a look at how the current Twins Daily Top 20 performed: #1 - Brooks Lee (St. Paul) - 1-3, R, RBI, 2 BB, 3B(3) #2 - Walker Jenkins (Fort Myers) - 0-3, R, BB, K #3 - Emmanuel Rodriguez (Cedar Rapids) - BB #4 - Marco Raya (Wichita) - 3.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K #8 - Tanner Schobel (Wichita) - 2-4 #10 - Luke Keaschall (Cedar Rapids) - 1-3 #14 - Yunior Severino (St. Paul) - 0-5, K #17 - Danny De Andrade (Fort Myers) - 1-5, R SATURDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Louisville (6:15PM CST) - RHP Bailey Ober Wichita @ Corpus Christi (7:05PM CST) - RHP Travis Adams Cedar Rapids @ Wisconsin (6:40 CST) - RHP John Klein Bradenton @ Fort Myers (5:00PM CST) - RHP Jose Olivares Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Friday’s games! View full article
  16. TRANSACTIONS 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff activated off rehab assignment from St. Paul. 1B/OF Joey Gallo placed on IL with a "foot contusion." SAINTS SENTINEL St. Paul 7, Louisville 6 Box Score Randy Dobnak was on the bump Friday for the Saints and worked five innings. He worked three strong innings before the Bats plated four in the fourth inning and ruined his line. Giving up six hits, Dobnak allowed six runs and four walks. He did strike out six on the evening as well. After scoring double-digits Thursday night, St. Paul didn’t waste time putting runs up on Friday. Brooks Lee opened the scoring with a first inning triple, his third, that brought home Michael Helman. Trevor Larnach then lifted a sacrifice fly that allowed Lee to jog the last 90 feet home. After a rehabbing Joey Votto doubled in the bottom of the first inning to tie things up, the Saints went back to work in the second inning. Chris Williams ripped a single that scored DaShawn Keirsey Jr. before Tony Wolters brought home Gilberto Celestino on a single of his own. In the third inning the Saints kept the runs coming when Wolters homered for just the third time this season. The three-run shot scored Anthony Prato and Williams to push St. Paul’s lead to 7-2. Louisville came charging back with four runs in the fourth inning against Dobnak. Jonathan India’s double plated two of the four, and the Saints lead was down to one. Austin Schulfer and Cole Sands both worked scoreless relief outings to keep the score as-is headed to the ninth inning. Former Twins reliever Alan Busenitz pitched the ninth inning for Louisville, and he got two outs before walking Celestino. Sands stayed on to finish the ninth inning and slammed the door. St. Paul got a three-hit game from Helman, while both Prato and Wolters added two of their own. WIND SURGE WISDOM Corpus Christi 8, Wichita 2 Box Score Marco Raya was taking another turn on Friday for the Wind Surge, and he worked 3 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball. Raya allowed only two hits while issuing no free passes. He struck out three during the outing. This one was a pitcher’s duel for much of the game. Willie Joe Garry Jr. grounded into a double play, but Aaron Sabato did come home and that gave Wichita a 1-0 lead in the second inning. The Hooks did tie it up in the bottom of the eighth against Regi Grace, and then a two-run homer put Corpus Christi ahead 3-1. Corpus Christi added another run on a solo blast in the sixth inning to make it 4-1, and a run in the seventh inning made it 5-1. Wichita needed to find an answer, and soon. Instead of responding with a run, the Wind Surge gave up three Corpus Christi runs in the eighth inning, only pushing the comeback reality further away. They couldn't find an answer in the ninth inning and a close game ballooned to a blowout. Looking to make things a bit more respectable, Yoyner Fajardo reached on an error in the ninth inning that allowed Dalton Shuffield to score. Although he didn't record a hit, Fajardo extended his on-base streak to 22 games. Schobel recorded two hits on the night. Alex Isola also had two hits, going 2-for-2 after he took over for Sabato. KERNELS NUGGETS Wisconsin 2, Cedar Rapids 1 Box Score Zebby Matthews was on the bump for Cedar Rapids on Friday. He turned in three scoreless innings allowing just a single hit, and a pair of walks. Matthews also struck out three Wisconsin batters. Mike Paredes worked two scoreless innings of relief, and then Gabriel Yanez turned in a pair of scoreless frames of his own. For some reason, Emmanuel Rodriguez was lifted for a pinch hitter in the third inning, and that will definitely be something to monitor. No one pushed across a run until the eighth inning when Noah Miller reached on an error that allowed Jeferson Morales to score. Ricardo Velez got the ninth inning and looked to slam the door. Wisconsin evened the score when Eric Brown Jr. singled in a run, and then Velez balked with Brown Jr. at third base to give away the victory. Only Luke Keaschall and Kyler Fedko recorded hits for the Kernels Friday night. MUSSEL MATTERS Fort Myers 7, Bradenton 5 Box Score Matt Gabbert, who signed with the Twins out of indy ball with Boise in the Pioneer League, made his first start Friday for the Mighty Mussels. He turned in five scoreless innings allowing just a single hit and a pair of walks. Gabbert also punched out six. The Mighty Mussels didn’t score until the fourth inning, but they added in a big way. Nate Baez singled home Ricardo Olivar and Danny De Andrade. Rubel Cespedes followed with a triple to drive in Baez, and Alec Sayre lofted a sacrifice fly to bring home Cespedes and make it a 4-0 game. In the fifth inning, Fort Myers tacked on more. Olivar doubled home both Jay Harry and Walker Jenkins to make it a 6-0 game. Cespedes then grabbed another hit, this time a single, and Olivar raced across the plate. The Marauders scored five in the eighth inning, and Fort Myers saw their lead quickly shrinking. Samuel Perez held on though, and the Mighty Mussels grabbed the victory. Both Baez and Cespedes had a pair of hits on the evening. Although Walker Jenkins didn’t record a hit, he did reach base with a walk. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Matt Gabbert (Fort Myers) - 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K Hitter of the Day – Tony Wolters (St. Paul) - 2-4, R, 4 RBI, HR(3), K PROSPECT SUMMARY We will again keep tabs on the Twins top prospects. You’ll probably read about them in the team sections, but if they aren’t there, you’ll see how they did here. Here’s a look at how the current Twins Daily Top 20 performed: #1 - Brooks Lee (St. Paul) - 1-3, R, RBI, 2 BB, 3B(3) #2 - Walker Jenkins (Fort Myers) - 0-3, R, BB, K #3 - Emmanuel Rodriguez (Cedar Rapids) - BB #4 - Marco Raya (Wichita) - 3.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K #8 - Tanner Schobel (Wichita) - 2-4 #10 - Luke Keaschall (Cedar Rapids) - 1-3 #14 - Yunior Severino (St. Paul) - 0-5, K #17 - Danny De Andrade (Fort Myers) - 1-5, R SATURDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Louisville (6:15PM CST) - RHP Bailey Ober Wichita @ Corpus Christi (7:05PM CST) - RHP Travis Adams Cedar Rapids @ Wisconsin (6:40 CST) - RHP John Klein Bradenton @ Fort Myers (5:00PM CST) - RHP Jose Olivares Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Friday’s games!
  17. The Minnesota Twins missed a golden opportunity to slam the window on Cleveland at home, leaving a glimmer of hope in the division race. But they bounced back with a strong weekend in Texas to keep their distance in the Central, with a five-game lead. Now comes the final head-to-head showdown. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/28 through Sun, 9/3 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 71-66) Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +51) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (5.0 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 132 | MIN 10, CLE 6: Lewis Grand Slam Keys Comeback Game 133 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Offense Comes Up Empty in Loss Game 134 | CLE 5, MIN 2: Twins Fall in Extras, Waste Gray Gem Game 135 | MIN 5, TEX 1: Homers and Bullpen Power Victory Game 136 | MIN 9, TEX 7: Resilient Offense Picks Up Keuchel Game 137 | TEX 6, MIN 5: Spirited Comeback Fall Shorts This Time NEWS & NOTES The Twins missed out on an unexpected waiver bonanza on the final day of August, as their waiver priority position kept them just out of range for key veterans who became freely available due to salary dumps. Making matters more painful, the Guardians – who effectively kept their hopes alive by winning two of three from Minnesota last week – claimed two relievers that could've definitely helped the Twins: Reynaldo Lopez and Matt Moore. Absent any external help, the Twins made a pair of promotions on September 1st when rosters expanded, adding reliever Brent Headrick and outfielder Andrew Stevenson. These might both be temporary additions, with some notable reinforcements on the way. Alex Kirilloff is rehabbing in St. Paul and looking about ready for a return – although the team is claiming they don't intend to activate him for the upcoming Cleveland series, preferring he get more at-bats to validate the recovery of his shoulder. Jorge Alcala, Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart are all trying to make it to the Twins bullpen in September, with varying levels of optimism. More immediate is the potential arrival of Louie Varland, who appeared in relief for the Saints for the first time on Thursday and looked phenomenal, touching 100 MPH multiple times. It appears Varland is being groomed for a short-burst bullpen role, in which he could be highly effective. With all these moving parts in motion, the Twins also made a pair of IL moves last week: Oliver Ortega was placed on the shelf with a lumbar strain, and replaced by Kody Funderburk, who had an eventful first week in the majors. Michael A. Taylor, who's been bothered by a hamstring issue that flared up on Saturday night, also went on the injured list, conveniently making room for the return of Willi Castro. Jose Miranda went on the 60-day IL to create 40-man space for Stevenson, likely putting the stamp on a lost season for the 25-year-old. HIGHLIGHTS In a familiar story for the second half, the bats paved the way for Minnesota's success, with the lineup scoring 24 runs in their three victories to overcome some shaky pitching performances. And, in a familiar story for pretty much the whole season, Donovan Solano was the scrappy veteran plug sparking the offense. Solano fueled the big comeback win on Saturday night, going 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBIs. It was one of three multi-hit games in a week that saw him finish 9-for-17, lifting his OBP to .379. Few could have guessed when they signed him in late February for $2 million, essentially an offseason afterthought, that Solano would become such a pivotal and indispensable fixture on the 2023 roster. But he most definitely is. Royce Lewis has the looks of an instant superstar, repeatedly delivering game-changing hits in pressure-packed spots. His rookie jolt has energized the entire team. Lewis' theatrics over the past week included a go-ahead grand slam on Tuesday, a game-tying three-run blast on Sunday, and then another game-tying single later in that same game. Another key contributor to the offense, and a critically important one, was Jorge Polanco. The long-tenured Twin is finally starting to find his groove after a long season of rehabbing and shaking off rust. He was simply a monster against Cleveland and Texas, picking up six hits in 21 at-bats including two doubles and two homers. Polanco drove in seven and also drew six walks. His productivity has revitalized the No. 2 spot in the order. Often overlooked by fans for whatever reason, Polanco has been a standout hitter for most of his career – and a clutch one, too. His absence in the first half was a major reason for the offense's persistent struggles. As he's showing, Polanco's return alongside Lewis can be a crucial factor in their ongoing emergence, with big moments looming ahead. Much maligned over the past couple weeks, the Twins bullpen enjoyed some healthy redemption. They picked up Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel after rough outings on Monday and Saturday, rattling off clean innings and setting the stage for comeback victories. Friday night's win in Texas offered a hopeful preview of Rocco Baldelli's successful October formula: Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar and Jhoan Duran following six good innings from the starter with three perfect frames to close it out. Nine up, nine down. The starter in that game, Joe Ryan, was stellar for a second straight time after coming off the injured list, striking out seven with no walks over six innings of one-run ball. From all appearances (and results), he looks like his old self, which is a welcome development as Maeda and Keuchel go off the rails. Ryan is lining himself up for a place in a potential postseason rotation that would almost certainly be fronted by Sonny Gray, the American League ERA leader. Gray was brilliant once again in a huge game against Cleveland on Wednesday, firing seven shutout innings in an (unsuccessful) effort to will his team to a possibly season-clinching win. Gray has been downright phenomenal all year, setting himself up for a big free agent pay-day. I'd imagine he's got a pretty tight grip on Game 1 starter status at this point. For all the manufactured drama about Baldelli and the quick hooks, Gray pitched into the seventh in four of his six August starts, and ranked third among all major-league pitchers in innings thrown for the month, behind only noted workhorses Framber Valdez and Sandy Alcantara. LOWLIGHTS In spite of all the big-time relief performances last week, the bullpen's defining moment was unfortunately its worst: allowing Gray's gem on Wednesday to go to waste. That game was a medley of disaster moments – Jax and Thielbar giving up big hits, Duran skipping a wild pitch with victory a strike away, Funderburk coughing up the back-breaking home run in extras. You can't expect a bullpen to be perfect, even when going good, and these kinds of things happen. However, this latest breakdown occurred at the most inopportune time, as the Twins sought to snuff out any legitimate hope for the Guardians and instead gave them a gasp of air. Cleveland channeled that momentum into a series victory against the Rays over the weekend, and now the Guardians will be hosting Minnesota at Progressive Field this coming week with a chance to whittle the division lead down to striking distance. Annoyingly, Cleveland will be upgraded since the showdown at Target Field a week prior, with Lucas Giolito set to start on Monday, and Lopez and Moore now available in relief. Losing just one game in the standings, the Twins mostly kept their distance over the past week, but they also didn't create any further ground, meaning no one can get comfortable. The ongoing stakes of each game provide cause for apprehension, as the back end of Minnesota's rotation unravels and close games keep slipping away. I fully believe the Twins are built favorably for a postseason run: a top-heavy squad with strengths at the front of the rotation, the top of the lineup and the back of the bullpen. But they need to get there first, and they need to do it without wearing down the cornerstones they'll be counting on. TRENDING STORYLINE Are the Twins really going to leave Kirilloff in Triple-A for the Cleveland series, given its immense stakes? Especially when the alternative is sticking with Joey Gallo, who is bottoming out at the end of another bad season? Gallo is hitless in his past 23 plate appearances, and he committed multiple frustrating gaffes on the bases in the past week. He's un-rosterable at this point. The front office's odd gamble from last offseason cannot be viewed as anything more than a total failure, and yet Gallo has hung around into September anyway. Now the assorted developments that prolonged his stay are coming full-circle, with Kirilloff mashing on his rehab stint and looking ready to supplant the struggling vet. It sounds like the Twins are just not quite ready to make that move. Bafflingly. I very much understand the general sentiment to take it slow with Kirilloff, but these are special circumstances. If he's healthy, he's healthy, and wasting swings in Triple-A seems counterproductive when doing so means downgrading the quality of the Twins roster in such a significant way. The Twins cannot afford to have Gallo receiving any meaningful playing time in Cleveland this week while Kirilloff keeps playing to form in the minors. If that scenario plays some role in an undesirable result in the series, the Twins would be about as rippable for their overly conservative approach here as at the deadline. Of course, stated plans can change. We'll see what happens on Monday. Kirilloff started in St. Paul on Sunday night (where he homered for a second straight day), seemingly suggesting he will not be heading to Cleveland, at least for the opener. LOOKING AHEAD It's all on the line this week. Both the Twins and Guardians are in position to make a decisive stand in Cleveland. A sweep for the Minnesota would all but lock down the division. A sweep for Cleveland would reduce the lead to two with 22 to play. Any other result will more or less keep this race vaguely alive. The Twins will be throwing their top three starters in a series that figures to have postseason vibes. Buckle up. MONDAY, 9/4: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Lucas Giolito TUESDAY, 9/5: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Tanner Bibee WEDNESDAY, 9/6: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Gavin Williams FRIDAY, 9/8: METS @ TWINS – TBD v. LHP Dallas Keuchel SATURDAY, 9/9: METS @ TWINS – RHP Kodai Senga v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 9/10: METS @ TWINS – LHP David Peterson v. RHP Pablo Lopez View full article
  18. The Minnesota Twins battled back multiple times Sunday in Texas but the bullpen could not hold. Josh Winder gave up a walk-off homer to Adolis Garcia after Cole Sands surrendered a pair of runs in his outing. Royce Lewis had another impressive game, tallying three hits including a three-run homer. Down in the minors, Alex Kirilloff hit another homer on his rehab assignment and Brooks Lee had a four-hit night that included a game-tying homer with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. All that and more in tonight's Twins System Recap.
  19. The Minnesota Twins battled back multiple times Sunday in Texas but the bullpen could not hold. Josh Winder gave up a walk-off homer to Adolis Garcia after Cole Sands surrendered a pair of runs in his outing. Royce Lewis had another impressive game, tallying three hits including a three-run homer. Down in the minors, Alex Kirilloff hit another homer on his rehab assignment and Brooks Lee had a four-hit night that included a game-tying homer with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. All that and more in tonight's Twins System Recap. View full video
  20. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/28 through Sun, 9/3 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 71-66) Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +51) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (5.0 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 132 | MIN 10, CLE 6: Lewis Grand Slam Keys Comeback Game 133 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Offense Comes Up Empty in Loss Game 134 | CLE 5, MIN 2: Twins Fall in Extras, Waste Gray Gem Game 135 | MIN 5, TEX 1: Homers and Bullpen Power Victory Game 136 | MIN 9, TEX 7: Resilient Offense Picks Up Keuchel Game 137 | TEX 6, MIN 5: Spirited Comeback Fall Shorts This Time NEWS & NOTES The Twins missed out on an unexpected waiver bonanza on the final day of August, as their waiver priority position kept them just out of range for key veterans who became freely available due to salary dumps. Making matters more painful, the Guardians – who effectively kept their hopes alive by winning two of three from Minnesota last week – claimed two relievers that could've definitely helped the Twins: Reynaldo Lopez and Matt Moore. Absent any external help, the Twins made a pair of promotions on September 1st when rosters expanded, adding reliever Brent Headrick and outfielder Andrew Stevenson. These might both be temporary additions, with some notable reinforcements on the way. Alex Kirilloff is rehabbing in St. Paul and looking about ready for a return – although the team is claiming they don't intend to activate him for the upcoming Cleveland series, preferring he get more at-bats to validate the recovery of his shoulder. Jorge Alcala, Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart are all trying to make it to the Twins bullpen in September, with varying levels of optimism. More immediate is the potential arrival of Louie Varland, who appeared in relief for the Saints for the first time on Thursday and looked phenomenal, touching 100 MPH multiple times. It appears Varland is being groomed for a short-burst bullpen role, in which he could be highly effective. With all these moving parts in motion, the Twins also made a pair of IL moves last week: Oliver Ortega was placed on the shelf with a lumbar strain, and replaced by Kody Funderburk, who had an eventful first week in the majors. Michael A. Taylor, who's been bothered by a hamstring issue that flared up on Saturday night, also went on the injured list, conveniently making room for the return of Willi Castro. Jose Miranda went on the 60-day IL to create 40-man space for Stevenson, likely putting the stamp on a lost season for the 25-year-old. HIGHLIGHTS In a familiar story for the second half, the bats paved the way for Minnesota's success, with the lineup scoring 24 runs in their three victories to overcome some shaky pitching performances. And, in a familiar story for pretty much the whole season, Donovan Solano was the scrappy veteran plug sparking the offense. Solano fueled the big comeback win on Saturday night, going 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBIs. It was one of three multi-hit games in a week that saw him finish 9-for-17, lifting his OBP to .379. Few could have guessed when they signed him in late February for $2 million, essentially an offseason afterthought, that Solano would become such a pivotal and indispensable fixture on the 2023 roster. But he most definitely is. Royce Lewis has the looks of an instant superstar, repeatedly delivering game-changing hits in pressure-packed spots. His rookie jolt has energized the entire team. Lewis' theatrics over the past week included a go-ahead grand slam on Tuesday, a game-tying three-run blast on Sunday, and then another game-tying single later in that same game. Another key contributor to the offense, and a critically important one, was Jorge Polanco. The long-tenured Twin is finally starting to find his groove after a long season of rehabbing and shaking off rust. He was simply a monster against Cleveland and Texas, picking up six hits in 21 at-bats including two doubles and two homers. Polanco drove in seven and also drew six walks. His productivity has revitalized the No. 2 spot in the order. Often overlooked by fans for whatever reason, Polanco has been a standout hitter for most of his career – and a clutch one, too. His absence in the first half was a major reason for the offense's persistent struggles. As he's showing, Polanco's return alongside Lewis can be a crucial factor in their ongoing emergence, with big moments looming ahead. Much maligned over the past couple weeks, the Twins bullpen enjoyed some healthy redemption. They picked up Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel after rough outings on Monday and Saturday, rattling off clean innings and setting the stage for comeback victories. Friday night's win in Texas offered a hopeful preview of Rocco Baldelli's successful October formula: Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar and Jhoan Duran following six good innings from the starter with three perfect frames to close it out. Nine up, nine down. The starter in that game, Joe Ryan, was stellar for a second straight time after coming off the injured list, striking out seven with no walks over six innings of one-run ball. From all appearances (and results), he looks like his old self, which is a welcome development as Maeda and Keuchel go off the rails. Ryan is lining himself up for a place in a potential postseason rotation that would almost certainly be fronted by Sonny Gray, the American League ERA leader. Gray was brilliant once again in a huge game against Cleveland on Wednesday, firing seven shutout innings in an (unsuccessful) effort to will his team to a possibly season-clinching win. Gray has been downright phenomenal all year, setting himself up for a big free agent pay-day. I'd imagine he's got a pretty tight grip on Game 1 starter status at this point. For all the manufactured drama about Baldelli and the quick hooks, Gray pitched into the seventh in four of his six August starts, and ranked third among all major-league pitchers in innings thrown for the month, behind only noted workhorses Framber Valdez and Sandy Alcantara. LOWLIGHTS In spite of all the big-time relief performances last week, the bullpen's defining moment was unfortunately its worst: allowing Gray's gem on Wednesday to go to waste. That game was a medley of disaster moments – Jax and Thielbar giving up big hits, Duran skipping a wild pitch with victory a strike away, Funderburk coughing up the back-breaking home run in extras. You can't expect a bullpen to be perfect, even when going good, and these kinds of things happen. However, this latest breakdown occurred at the most inopportune time, as the Twins sought to snuff out any legitimate hope for the Guardians and instead gave them a gasp of air. Cleveland channeled that momentum into a series victory against the Rays over the weekend, and now the Guardians will be hosting Minnesota at Progressive Field this coming week with a chance to whittle the division lead down to striking distance. Annoyingly, Cleveland will be upgraded since the showdown at Target Field a week prior, with Lucas Giolito set to start on Monday, and Lopez and Moore now available in relief. Losing just one game in the standings, the Twins mostly kept their distance over the past week, but they also didn't create any further ground, meaning no one can get comfortable. The ongoing stakes of each game provide cause for apprehension, as the back end of Minnesota's rotation unravels and close games keep slipping away. I fully believe the Twins are built favorably for a postseason run: a top-heavy squad with strengths at the front of the rotation, the top of the lineup and the back of the bullpen. But they need to get there first, and they need to do it without wearing down the cornerstones they'll be counting on. TRENDING STORYLINE Are the Twins really going to leave Kirilloff in Triple-A for the Cleveland series, given its immense stakes? Especially when the alternative is sticking with Joey Gallo, who is bottoming out at the end of another bad season? Gallo is hitless in his past 23 plate appearances, and he committed multiple frustrating gaffes on the bases in the past week. He's un-rosterable at this point. The front office's odd gamble from last offseason cannot be viewed as anything more than a total failure, and yet Gallo has hung around into September anyway. Now the assorted developments that prolonged his stay are coming full-circle, with Kirilloff mashing on his rehab stint and looking ready to supplant the struggling vet. It sounds like the Twins are just not quite ready to make that move. Bafflingly. I very much understand the general sentiment to take it slow with Kirilloff, but these are special circumstances. If he's healthy, he's healthy, and wasting swings in Triple-A seems counterproductive when doing so means downgrading the quality of the Twins roster in such a significant way. The Twins cannot afford to have Gallo receiving any meaningful playing time in Cleveland this week while Kirilloff keeps playing to form in the minors. If that scenario plays some role in an undesirable result in the series, the Twins would be about as rippable for their overly conservative approach here as at the deadline. Of course, stated plans can change. We'll see what happens on Monday. Kirilloff started in St. Paul on Sunday night (where he homered for a second straight day), seemingly suggesting he will not be heading to Cleveland, at least for the opener. LOOKING AHEAD It's all on the line this week. Both the Twins and Guardians are in position to make a decisive stand in Cleveland. A sweep for the Minnesota would all but lock down the division. A sweep for Cleveland would reduce the lead to two with 22 to play. Any other result will more or less keep this race vaguely alive. The Twins will be throwing their top three starters in a series that figures to have postseason vibes. Buckle up. MONDAY, 9/4: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Lucas Giolito TUESDAY, 9/5: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Tanner Bibee WEDNESDAY, 9/6: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Gavin Williams FRIDAY, 9/8: METS @ TWINS – TBD v. LHP Dallas Keuchel SATURDAY, 9/9: METS @ TWINS – RHP Kodai Senga v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 9/10: METS @ TWINS – LHP David Peterson v. RHP Pablo Lopez
  21. The Minnesota Twins beat Texas in extra innings thanks to a superb effort from Donovan Solano and a couple of clutch hits from Carlos Correa and Max Kepler. Solano had four hits, include a homer, and made a game-saving catch. Down in the minors, Alex Kirilloff and Emmanuel Rodriguez hit impressive homer runs.
  22. The Minnesota Twins beat Texas in extra innings thanks to a superb effort from Donovan Solano and a couple of clutch hits from Carlos Correa and Max Kepler. Solano had four hits, include a homer, and made a game-saving catch. Down in the minors, Alex Kirilloff and Emmanuel Rodriguez hit impressive homer runs. View full video
  23. The Cleveland Guardians snagged both impact waiver relievers away from the Twins on Thursday, leaving Minnesota with no remaining external answers to its rapidly deteriorating bullpen corps. Help might be on the way for that unit from within, via recovering or converting arms, but it's the offense's reinforcements that should make fans most confident in the Twins avoiding a bullpen-fueled disaster in September. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Over their past 16 games, the Twins have gone 9-7. In doing so, they've barely nudged their AL Central lead – from 4 ½ games on August 12th to 5 games on August 31st. They're not in a bad situation, but it could feel a lot safer. And one can easily argue that if not for the bullpen's lapses in August, it would feel a lot safer. Five of the team's seven losses over the aforementioned span have seen a reliever tagged with the "L," reflecting how many games have pivoted from win (or tie) to loss on the bullpen's watch. We all have memories etched in our heads from recent weeks of key relief pitchers imploding on the mound, with disastrous results. From Dylan Floro's batting practice session to Griffin Jax's multiple meltdowns to Jhoan Duran's costly wild pitch this week, it's been a rough slog. There's no question the bullpen has been lagging and running thin, causing the front office's complacency at the deadline to look even worse than it did at the time. But that's now water under the bridge. So is the missed waiver claims. I'm not here to tell you that the bullpen hasn't been bad – only that they haven't been as bad as you might think. I'm also not here to tell you that September reinforcements are going to magically turn the bullpen around – only that it might matter less than you think. Given how many Twins games took a turn for the worse with relief pitchers on the mound lately, you'd think their bullpen ranked near the bottom of the league for August in Win Probability Added (WPA). But they didn't; they ranked 12th-highest in the majors, or better than average. (Granted, still behind almost every true contender.) By WPA, the bullpen had an overall neutral effect on the team's outcomes this past month. Again: that's not to say they've been good. They just haven't been flat-out sabotaging the team as some would like to believe. The reason it SEEMS like the relievers have been blowing everything is a familiar story from the first half: slim margins being created by the offense leaving almost no margin for error. Wednesday's game against Cleveland was a perfect example. Handed a two-run lead from Sonny Gray after seven, relievers gave up single runs in the eighth and ninth inning to tie the game, then things unraveled in the 10th. Should they have really ever been in the 10th, putting rookie Kody Funderburk in that unfortunate and ill-fated spot? They wouldn't have been, if not for the lineup going 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position, with the top five hitters combining to go 2-for-18 in the game. This has fortunately been less frequent in the second half, with the offense emerging to make stretches like Tuesday and Wednesday – where they scored four runs in 19 innings – more the exception than the norm. The better news is that Minnesota's offense has a chance to become substantially better in the very near future. I'm trying not to get myself hyped on the idea of both Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff – currently at Triple-A on rehab stints, with the potential to return as soon as next week – stepping in and immediately performing at their peak level. But ... is it that unthinkable that one or both could be somewhere close? They're rested up after spending some time on the sidelines. They're feeling good enough that Buxton's playing center field and Kirilloff is playing back-to-backs out of the gate on rehab. When these two are healthy and on, you can make a pretty good case they are the two best hitters on the team, and it's not like we haven't seen glimpses (I'll be it unsustained glimpses) of this prowess from both at times in 2023. Yeah, I'm intrigued by the idea of trying Chris Paddack as a reliever, or converting Louie Varland to the bullpen, or hoping Brock Stewart can come back healthy and at the same level. But those are all somewhat experimental long shots. Buxton and Kirilloff are proven commodities and cornerstone players. Their returns to the roster are likely far more imminent than the others. And while getting them back might not directly improve the bullpen, it can definitely reduce the bullpen's negative impact by reducing its pressure to constantly perform. Even with the relievers wobbling, when the Twins score, they win – they went 10-3 in August when putting up five or more runs. Reduced pressure on the bullpen also means reduced reliance on the high-leverage options at the back, which would potentially provide guys like Duran and Jax with some needed rest ahead of the postseason. If you're hoping the bullpen can be saved from within, then you should keep an eye on the reinforcements making their way back from injury. Just maybe not the ones you're thinking of. View full article
  24. The Minnesota Twins were off Thursday but there was still plenty of minor league action. Alex Kirilloff played first base and had three hits for the Saints while Louie Varland came out of the bullpen and threw fire. Varland topped out over 100 mph and had his velo up over 2 mph on his fastball from usual. Additional highlights of Tanner Schobel, C.J. Culpepper, a Walker Jenkins update and much more.
  25. The Minnesota Twins were off Thursday but there was still plenty of minor league action. Alex Kirilloff played first base and had three hits for the Saints while Louie Varland came out of the bullpen and threw fire. Varland topped out over 100 mph and had his velo up over 2 mph on his fastball from usual. Additional highlights of Tanner Schobel, C.J. Culpepper, a Walker Jenkins update and much more. View full video
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