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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I wouldn't mind seeing Keaschall get some time in the leadoff spot; he does seem to have a lot of good skills for it, which would also allow Buxton to drop into the 3rd spot and maybe have more runners on base when he clouts a dinger. Martin is a fair pick, and so is Buxton (who enjoys it and is kind of Rickey-esque in the role). Nice to actually have good options that have some speed, as opposed to ones who are just high OBP dudes. It'd be nice to have a LH or switch hitter that could slot in between Keachall & Buxton in the 2-hole. Maybe someone from the pool of Lee, Roden, Gasper, and Julien will show out in the last chunk of the season. (Clemens feels like a better fit lower in the lineup and Larnach is a DP waiting to happen too often I think, and Wallner should be hitting cleanup I think) Maybe next season it looks something like this: Keaschall Rodriguez Buxton Wallner Lewis Clemens Jeffers DH/OF To Be Named Later Lee Maybe Roden grabs the last spot, maybe Larnach is back, maybe someone else steps up (a resurgent Julien, a bit unlikely but still possible, or Fedko gets a shot...god forbid they sign a real FA) We'd need to see better health from Rodriguez & Lewis (and I'd have no complaints if GG claimed a spot on the roster and pushed Wallner to a DH role, or if Culpepper pushed Lee to the bench, but who knows right now) but if the younger guys are performing it could get to be a difficult lineup to navigate, with good balance and better speed than what we've been used to.
  2. jmlease1
    Neither Wallner nor Julien made the top 100 lists. Miranda barely cracked a top 100 list in one season. It's not a great track record, but you're underrating Wallner and his career 132 OPS+. Larnach is a platoon outfielder. Lewis Royce has tons and tons of injuries, but still looks like he can be a quality starter. Rodriguez is yet to be determined; still plenty young, but also constantly dealing with injuries. notably, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gordon, Lewis, and Rodriguez have all had significant injury issues. The inference here is that the Twins made bad decisions on all these players and/or failed to develop them, but for half the list injury issues have derailed their careers in some way. None of these guys had a discernible history of injuries when selected (none of them were guys like Preilipp...or even Keaschall, who was known to have a elbow issue that would need to be addressed). Are you saying the Twins should have known that these guys would all get hurt?
  3. jmlease1
    I think there's some real possibilities here with the lineup, but let's not have blinders on to the risks of making Culpepper the starting SS out the gate, etc. Maybe he's ready to hit in MLB in 2026, maybe not but it's a real risk to go that direction. Clemens is ok as a transition 1B; he's been doing well this season, and you have to like his gamer attitude along with the increased power production, but I'd be concerned that teams are going to be able to put a book on him together after seeing 400 ABs of him swinging out of his shoes to hit homers this year and m=reduce his effectiveness significantly. I'm already kind of Out on Outman, and while Roden might be an acceptable 4th OF if he shows he can handle CF well down the stretch and actually hit like a MLB player...he's not there yet. Basically this bench looks terrible outside of Brooks Lee (who adds much more defensively than offensively at this point, though I still have hope for his bat and his floor is reasonable), which is pretty risky when relying on a lot of rookies + Keaschall and a return to form from Lewis to carry the load. The upside is there, but the risk is high. The pitching staff is where I really disagree. I don't think Matthews, Festa, SWR, and Ober are all getting moved into the bullpen for 2026, nor does it make all that much sense to do so just to slot in Bradley & Abel. (It's also notable this piece has the Twins carrying 14 pitchers, which they aren't allowed to do...) Total agree with above that no team is going to take their 6th-9th starters and slot them all into the bullpen, either. Ober is almost certainly in the rotation next season. The bullpen needs work and reinforcements from beyond just the organization. While Raya might be an option to transition, it's not like he's had a good season in limited innings. Adams is showing enough to suggest that he could be a middle relief type who can give multiple innings, but this team is woefully short on guys that would handle higher leverage. Preilipp has the talent for it, but also has the talent to start. Lewis doesn't really have the pitch mix to make sense as a reliever, outside of maybe being a bulk inning guy. Sands has taken a step back this season and looks like a typical reliever in that you'll never be sure which guy you'll get in a season. And the real issue continues to be ownership, because if the damn Pohlads keep the team, I'm quite certain they'll dump Pablo for salary relief, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if Ryan follows him out the door (even though Ryan should be someone you're trying to extend) because the cheap Pohlads are going to make sure they maximize their profits on their way out the door until they get the price they want. Jeffers probably goes too. They won't be in the Oakland situation of needing to reach a salary floor because even the union will give them a pass for one season; Oakland paid no one for years. They'll let the Twins payroll fall to the bottom for at least one year, especially while the team is being sold. The good news is there's still talent on the roster and in the high minors that could make this a short turnaround. But there's risk in it and as long as the Pohlads have the team, there's even more risk that anyone making over $5M without a no-trade clause could be heading for the door, which takes away guys that have more proven track records to support the younger players. I'm excited by what guys like Culpepper & Jenkins can bring, along with other young/younger hitters, and there's a lot of starting pitching depth, along with high-end talent there. But the bullpen is a disaster zone that will not get fixed by just dropping the possibly worst starters into the 'pen in 2026. Sell the team. Please, sell the team!
  4. jmlease1
    It's great to see him doing well at AAA so far, but it would also be the first time he hasn't needed to repeat a level to find success in his pro career. At a certain point you have to ask how much of his success is beating up on younger players? It's great that he earned his way up to AAA, and he might be a useful player who can play corner OF/1B/DH...but it's hard to see him as a prospect at his age with inconsistent power and a relatively low BA in the minors. But maybe he's finally putting it all together? If nothing else, he should be good organizational depth. Let's hope he continues to hit well for the rest of the season at AAA.
  5. jmlease1
    Please stay healthy. That's my biggest hope on all three of these guys. (especially Jenkins, who has gotten dinged a couple of times already in his career) Wouldn't mind at all seeing Culpepper and/or Jenkins get some run in AAA to finish the season: the performance has merited it for sure. I think both are in spring training next season and not just to get a taste of what big league spring training is like, but as guys who can earn a spot. Regardless of how that goes, I'm pretty confident we'll see them at Target Field in 2026 before midseason. An OF of Buxton, Wallner, and Jenkins is pretty exciting to think about (and E-Rod or GG pushing Wallner to DH through performance would also be exciting) and an infield featuring Culpepper, Lewis, and Keaschall is also exciting. Here's hoping the team is sold soon.
  6. jmlease1
    I mean, he struck out looking. Better trade him. :rolls eyes: I hate the Yankees. Sick of losing to them all the damn time. They're not even playing that well, and they smoked us last night. Ugh! Zebby...did a lot of good things, but 3 dingers, even if they're solo shots is not great. One of the things I'm looking at with the young starters is what they're doing when they get to a 2-strike count on a hitter and what they're doing to finish them off. My frustration is when it's 0-2 or 1-2, a pitcher's count, and our guy throws an uncompetitive pitch. Saw that a few times from Zebby where he had them on the ropes and let them off the hook and gave them a chance to reset and grind the AB by throwing a breaking ball that was nowhere near the plate. Feel like that has to be the next step to correct? Offense was pretty somnolent. Warren looked like he was going to rack up a bazillion K's early and it set the tone.
  7. jmlease1
    I've been a Larnach stan for a long time, but...he's not really getting it done. He's purely a platoon bat, and when you have that limitation a .740 OPS doesn't really cut it. That's competent, but not good and I think you need to have good when you can't hit the other side basically at all. And he's below average defensively at this point, having already gotten slower. The arm is fine, but not plus, so he's basically a one-tool player whose tool ain't that sharp. Maybe he murders RHP the rest of the season and lines himself up better, but unless he's got an OPS over .800 against RHP... Someone will take a chance on him next season, but not for $4M, I bet, so trading him away means giving something else up, which seems like a mistake. He's gotten his chances and hasn't progressed. I'm sure injuries held him back; he's only been healthy 2 of the past 5 seasons, and the missed pandemic year in 2020 right when he was looking his most promising probably didn't help either. He's not bad or anything, but the twins clearly need more.
  8. jmlease1
    I wish, but the Mauer Experience is instructive to how some people behave. Same with Buxton. two of the most gifted Twins of my lifetime and people seem itching to crap on them. (I'll never forgive Dan Barreiro and his ilk for leading the charge against Mauer because he took too many walks and didn't have enough RBIs. 🙄)
  9. jmlease1
    If you're a MN Twin and you make a big contract, you'd better perform, not just up to the value of the contract but above and beyond it because there's nothing that will turn MN Twins fans on a player faster than making a ton of money and not performing like it every single night. Injuries will be treated as personal failings and the player will be pilloried for their contract (as if it wasn't market rate when signed) as if they player had somehow blackmailed the team into to paying them. I loved having Correa here and was thrilled when they made the move. It didn't end up working out, and the "trade" they made was a fairly embarrassing salary dump, but I loved watching Correa. Healthy, he was the most complete SS we've probably ever had in a Twins uniform, and even when his metrics were sliding defensively he was still a delight to watch in the field. The arm, the positioning...loved it. The "let's hate Correa" nonsense some are doing now is just silly, and I hope Twins fans don't boo him when he returns to Target Field. I certainly won't.
  10. jmlease1
    It is a fair point: filling the SS position for more than a year or two has been a big issue for the Twins over the last 30 years. It's partly why the Twins keep drafting SS every year. Even if Brooks Lee is passable at SS we're still putting a lot of faith in Culpepper (which may be warranted) because Marek Houston may not hit enough, they're moving De Andrade off, and Winokur probably can't stick there which continue to show the challenges of finding a SS who can be at least average and hold down the position for more than 1-2 seasons. I'm probably a little more hopeful than you about Brooks Lee being able to be an acceptable solution for the next 1-2 seasons beyond this, but it's a real issue. Having terrible shortstops sucks.
  11. jmlease1
    If they're having those guys working on pitches right now it might make more sense to have them do it in AAA rather than MLB. Bradley is trying to find his change/split again, which he needs to be effective and consistent and might need more game reps with it. Abel seems to be working on deploying a sweeper. They might get beaten around if they try it in MLB and it's certainly easier to tell a guy (and the catcher calling the game) to keep throwing something whether it's working or not in the minors than the majors I would think? Not sure it's a big deal.
  12. jmlease1
    Hopefully this is a good trend towards good consistent defense from Royce at 3B. Overall he seems to be passing the eye test over there, so it's good to see some statistical information that lend credence to it. It's been much less concerning to see Royce charging in on a ball this season and then unleashing a throw to 1B; in 2024 we really needed Carlos Santana over there! (while France was disappointing overall, I do think he did a nice job at making scoops) But it's still less of a feeling you're in the line of fire for anyone sitting up the 1B line this year? At the end of the day, Royce is going to have to hit to stick, but he's starting to look like a quality defensive option at 3B again after a very wobbly defensive season in 2024.
  13. jmlease1
    I'm consistently baffled by the people who run down Wallner and act like he's not a quality bat. I get that aesthetically the K's might not be pleasing to people, but the dude murders RHP and his power production in the heart of the lineup makes this a much more dangerous team. Even in a down season he's posting a 121 OPS+ and he has a career OPS+ of 133. That's really really good. I don't mind Gasper being on the squad right now; let's find out definitively if he can play or if he's a Quad A guy. I suspect he's a Quad A guy, but with Vazquez out if he can be ok behind the plate and hit a little he might actually have a role here if he can hit. Maybe he can't, but give him some consistent run and let's find out. (also? Hope the recovery goes well for Vazquez. an infection spreading is kind of scary stuff. Seems like a good dude too who will immediately step into a coaching role if he wants it) Remarkable start from Keaschall. Just amazing. Eventually he's going to slow down and have some 0-fers, but this is a fun ride, and he's looked fine at 2B. The arm is a little wobbly so far; he's gotten it done but he's had some easy throws be off target, hasn't shown a lot of arm strength, etc. Hopefully that irons out with reps and as he builds up strength after the injuries and long layoff. But his range looks pretty good so far and the glove looks plenty good enough. Brooks Lee is a key question going down the stretch. Right now, he's the only qualified SS on the roster (with all due respect to Fitz) and expecting Culpepper to be ready to take over in 2026 is a high-risk proposition. Culpepper might actually be ready at that point, it's certainly possible with how well he's shown out in his first full professional season...but no one should be shocked if he ends up needing more development time. If Lee can show better offense and solid defense at SS down the stretch it puts the team in a much better position to bring up Culpepper on his schedule rather than out of desperation, even if Lee is ultimately better suited to being a utility player.
  14. jmlease1
    I think this is right. Jenkins missed a bunch of time early in the season but he's been playing consistently since with no trouble. He'll get over 75 games in, so I don't think the Twins are going to look at it as necessary that he go to the AFL just to get game time in. (If he was going to finish the season with only 30, they might feel differently) I'm increasingly of the opinion that Larnach gets non-tendered as well; he simply hasn't developed enough as a hitter, and a LH platoon bat with no real defensive value simply isn't worth a lot. And with the Pohalds possibly still being in charge of payroll, it's also not where you want to spend $4M... In conclusion, Eff the Pohlads and Sell the Team!
  15. jmlease1
    well, this is the sort of story that comes out after a trade where someone throws a little dirt on a guy so the deal looks better. It also might be true, and a reminder that just because a player might have a public bulldog image where they "only care about wins" and will do anything for the team...they also still might care a lot about their stats, especially behind the scenes.
  16. jmlease1
    This is the sort of thing people "find" when they've already decided they don't want a player on the team. Suddenly the body language is bad, they don't hustle, blah blah blah. Never heard anything bad about Julien as a teammate. And of course everything looks great on Keaschall's intangibles: he can't miss at the plate. When was the last time you saw bad body language on a player hitting .400?
  17. jmlease1
    Was watching the Saints game, since I couldn't watch the Twins. GG absolutely murdered that ball, a no doubt HR that out of the park everywhere. nothing wind-aided or band-boxy about it. Like it. Abel was interesting: you could see the arm talent, but he just wasn't locating consistently. Battled pretty well. Miranda looked bad at the plate IMHO, hitting those weak grounders, and basically looking lifeless. Even the announcers are like "Jose Miranda just wants this nightmare season to end". Keep on rolling Walker Jenkins. And stay healthy, please!
  18. jmlease1
    Is it possible for a player to win Rookie of the Year only playing about 2 months or so of the season? Luke Keaschall sure seems to want it, lol. Heck of a start to his MLB career. Whatever happens, happens, but why not enjoy the ride? Sure is fun. Urena is a pitcher I'm uninterested in seeing again. (well, appearing again, since I couldn't watch the broadcast anyway because the Twins are awesome at dumb business decisions) Pure luck he didn't bury the team from the jump and I don't want to bet on luck. KC is going to be kicking themselves; they drew 8 walks and only scored 3 runs. Oof. (I'm sort of amazed that Sal Perez didn't destroy us; even if he's on the downside of his career, even if he's in a bit of a slump, I just sort of assume he's going to come up big against us. As a baseball fan, you'd want him to stick around forever, but as a Twins fan I can't wait for him to retire. Dude terrifies me) Congrats to Fitz on the dinger.
  19. jmlease1
    I mostly agree with this, though I would say Miranda has done nothing in AAA to earn a recall. I wouldn't bring him up regardless of where his options are: no scholarships. He's having a horrific season, for whatever reason. Maybe he's never really gotten back from the shoulder/back injuries. Maybe he's just not that good. Maybe his head needs re-wiring. (feels like a lot from column A, plus some column B, and maybe a little column C) but regardless: he has to earn his way back and he simply has not done it. There's other guys who are more deserving right now. I'd rather give guys like Fitzgerald or Prato a look over rewarding Miranda for his crap play. I'm increasingly of the belief that Larnach won't be back next season (he's purely a platoon bat at this point, adds no defense, and is due an increase in arbitration) so seeing what Roden can do is worth it. I wasn't high on him, but would be happy to be proven wrong. Maybe Outman shows enough in AAA that he gets another look, but I'd make him earn it too. McCusker has done more this season (though he's been dreadful lately and has had an awful summer after fast start). I would also say figuring out more of what you have with Bradley, Matthews, Festa, Morris and Abel as starters (and to some extent SWR) would help mitigate the failures of 2025 (I can't call it a "success" regardless; this team was picked to contend for the division, and should have at least been in the WC fight and they simply didn't play up to spec. That's a failure, and the sell-off was deserved. The injuries hurt, but there are always going to be injuries, and frankly the Twins didn't get beat up badly enough this season on the injury front to let them off the hook for their record.)
  20. jmlease1
    Good to see Morris back and throwing hard. I like his upside, hope he can finish out the year strong and be an option for next season. Walker Jenkins ain't slowing down at all. Love to see it. Debarge is really struggling right now, he's really fallen off after a good first 2 months. The steals don't mean all that much when you're hitting 3 for 28 with zero xbhs. He really needs some kind of reset. Dasan Hill is an intriguing prospect. If he can pull those walks into something more manageable, he'll get pretty interesting, but right now he's all arm talent. Worth watching, but long way to go.
  21. jmlease1
    Fitzgerald is really just insurance because they don't have anyone else on the roster who can play SS. What are they going to do, throw Martin in there? I mean, I guess they could have called up Eeles, but he wasn't going to play either, because they want to see how Lee does every day at SS. But with Correa and Castro both gone, there's no other real SS on the roster and they're not going to want things to go sideways if Lee rolls an ankle in the 3rd inning. Call it a reward for Fitz for being a good organizational player.
  22. jmlease1
    Last night's game is a reminder that it's hard to put up runs with no extra base hits. Twins offense is impressively bad against LHP, never did any real damage. Royce had a bad game at the plate, but no one did well with runners in scoring position. If you're relying on 2-out hits to get runs, you're going to have plenty of games where you come up short. Ober did pretty well, looked more like the guy we've seen over the past 3 seasons, which is nice against KC, because they have killed him before.
  23. jmlease1
    I suspect people would sour on him quickly in CF. As a corner OF who can also play 1B, he might get a chance, but I'm still not sure about his bat. He had a very nice run in AA and earned his promotion, and while BA isn't everything, it's a little concerning that even in a good season he was hitting .253 and hasn't always hit for much power. He does seems to have good judgment on the strike zone, so we'll see how it translates. If he can hit, he'll get a look, I think because a RH who can play 1B and the OF is a need for the Twins right now. But he'll need that bat.
  24. jmlease1
    Fedko has the kind of track record that will keep him from ever appearing on any national prospect lists. He's needed to repeat levels to figure them out (it will be interesting if he can keep his roll on this season after earning his promotion to AAA) which is why he's not getting his first crack at AAA until 25. He's not really a CF, but does fine in the corners. Just not sure he's going to be a good enough hitter to make the leap. But he earned the chance in AAA. Walker Jenkins looks great. Just want him to finish off the season healthy. The power seems to be developing and he's a very tough out. Not bad at 20 years old! Rosario has had an interesting season. Brutal start in April where he looked almost unplayable, followed by very good output in May & June (very nice K/BB numbers with good power), a bit of a lull in July where he was swinging too much and not making enough contact, but the power kept him above water, and now he looks locked in again in August. I wonder what the organization thinks of him at this point? If he finishes off this season well, he should be tracked to go to Saint Paul next season, and he's just barely turned 23...
  25. jmlease1
    I guess Keaschall has no intention of slowing down. Hey, good for him. He's definitely got a little of that energizer to him. At some point the grounders through the infield are going to stop going through every time, but he's still got a good approach at the plate and all signs are good I think. He looks fine at 2B as well with good range and a solid glove. Still some concerns about the arm, but that might improve just through getting the reps in. Roden did well again; hopefully he just needed some time to settle in. I'd love to be wrong about him and that he's more than just a Quad A player. It does look like the Twins see him as being a replacement for Larnach? Great to see the offense clicking like this. Jeffers is locked in at the plate right now and looked great (less great on that throw he airmailed to CF, but they got through it). Little surprised to see Wallner catching flack for getting rung up on that 3-2 pitch and being mad about it; maybe it nicked the corner, but also looked like it might have never actually touched the plate. The ump's reaction on it makes me back Wallner: he was slow to make the call, waited until Wallner started to walk to first, and then stumbled in his actual strike call as if he wasn't actually sure he had it right. That kind of crap is going to tick off the player and make him more certain that the ump got it wrong, and I don't blame him. A good win. Ryan is always fun to watch pitch. I'm going to be furious if he gets traded in the offseason; he's the kind of player to extend, not deal. Please sell the team!
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