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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Nice little breakout game for Captain America. Wasn't worried at all. Just stay healthy mah dude. Rosario sure looks locked in right now and is finishing off his season with a bang. His horrific April looks more and more like an outlier. Heck, he's even swiping bases: he's gone from single digits to 20+. Be interesting to see if that still plays up as he moves up. No question he's in AAA next season. Good to see Amick back off the IL. Bummer that he's missed so much time this season; think he could have gotten pushed up to AA if he'd been healthier.
  2. jmlease1
    I assume Davis is only up until they actually recall Pablo? If so...it's fine, I guess. Fairly irrelevent. I'm fine with bring Adams back, and hopefully they have decided to stop working him as a starter/bulk inning reliever and move into into more of a 1-2 inning role. It's worth seeing whether or not he can thrive there and be a part of a bullpen going forward, working his way up from low leverage to higher leverage situations. Keirsey...doesn't make that much sense to me, unless the argument is "we have enough guys we actually want to get looks at" that they don't really see much of a role for that 14th bench guy. I can sort of see it, if they still want to be giving Larnach, Julien, Outman, Gasper, Lewis, Keaschall, and Lewis plenty of ABs...it doesn't leave much for anyone else. Personally, I've seen enough of Clemens to know what he is and would rather see if someone else could handle some 1B besides Julien, but I suspect that they view Clemens as enough of a veteran that they don't want to just cut him for Sept. (even thought they probably should) I just don't think Keirsey can hit at this level, and as a result he has no role other than defense/pinch running, and has no trade value to speak of. If the Twins were really trying to win games down the stretch, that skill set might make some sense to try and grind out a couple of additional wins...but a couple of wins means nothing right now. Does it really matter of they lose 88 games or 90 games?
  3. jmlease1
    I think more likely it means the deal is going to be more like 7 years rather than 10? Which is still just fine for the Twins: buying out all the arbitration years and getting 1 season of free agency while not having to worry about service time issues, wh=ould still be good. But it's certainly possible that Jenkins will bet on himself. He was a top 5 pick with a big signing bonus, so as long as he's been reasonable with his money he can afford to wait. But I'd still love to lock him down for 6-8 seasons and have him in MLB from the jump next season.
  4. jmlease1
    Because he missed a chunk of the season at age 20 in AA? Because there's no real reason to skip him past AAA in an utterly lost season? And as good as Royce looked, he wasn't putting up these numbers at age 20. Or get promoted as fast. Royce didn't first reach AA until he was 20 with a late season promotion. Royce then hit a mess with a lost pandemic season and serious injuries. While Jenkins has had some injuries, none of them have been serious (a tweaked hamstring and a dinged ankle aren't terribly worrisome)
  5. jmlease1
    A sign of bad luck, a bad bullpen, and a lineup with real holes. But an average season only adds about 4-5 wins to the total. Notably, the much-maligned Epic Collapse Twins of 2024 were 22-20 in 1-run games.
  6. jmlease1
    I get that people hate Sano because he struck out a lot and got hurt, but even with all of that, the Twins paid Sano just under $35M over 8 seasons, and he was worth roughly $65M during that period, so it's not like that deal really hurt the Twins. And Jenkins has a much higher ceiling than Sano, who was considered can't miss as a hitter (and a career OPS+ of 115 supports the conclusion that he didn't miss) but always had questions about a defensive position. (which of course was hurt by the idiotic decision by prior management to have him play RF in 2016 because we just HAD to get more 3B time for Plouffe and Nunez and DH time for Park, an actual bust) I'm fine with going all-in on Walker Jenkins who isn't just a projectable player, he's put up minor league results. Get him the extension like MKE did for Chourio (people around here keep demanding we do things more like MKE, here a real place to start!) and get him in the OF for 2026.
  7. jmlease1
    Which is he? the guy from 2023 & 2024 or the guy from 2025? And how is it exactly that you "know"? Really good and really consistent for 2 straight year before having a bad one. 30 years old, so still in his prime. I'm guessing you would have cut Sonny Gray after 2018, too.
  8. jmlease1
    I think that Morris is actually thought of very highly by the Twins, but he's missed a chunk of time this season and it's taken game action to get him back on track. He was far too hittable early in the season along with a few too many walks that left him with an unsustainable WHIP. Much, much better in august, but his overall innings for the season are a little light. With additions the team made for starting pitching, I don't expect him to break camp with the MLB club, but he'll be one of the first in line in AAA in 2026, IMHO.
  9. jmlease1
    Walker Jenkins Easy choiceKaelen Culpepper having a strong first pro season and looks capable of manning SS.Eduardo Tait Huge upside at a difficult position to fill. patience requiredEmmanuel Rodriguez still incredibly talented. needs to stay healthy. the constant injuries are concerning.Connor Prielipp stuff is elite. even if he's bullpen-bound, he's a weapon and finally healthyMick Abel don't panic on a bad first MLB outing with the TwinsDasan Hill rising fast.Gabriel Gonzalez healthy and earned his promotion. like his RH batKendry Rojas not as high on him as others. probably wasn't ready for AAACharlee Soto great talent, injury set him backBrandon Winokur high ceiling. low floor.Marco Raya bullpen bound?Marek Houston great glove, but concerned about his bat.Riley Quick here on scholarshipAndrew Morris injury set him back. but still looks like a MLB starterQuentin Young projection so far, but elite athleticism. not his uncle.Hendry Mendez showing good control of the zone in AA.CJ Culpepper still talented, needs inningsKyler Fedko earned his promotion to AAA and the production has been too impressive to leave offKyle DeBarge fast start, but concerns about the bat look warranted. base-stealing is great, but he has to get on there first... Dropped Keaschall, as he's in MLB and feels off the prospect list to me.
  10. jmlease1
    zero chance. Player's union would (justifiably) scream bloody murder if they demoted Keaschall, even if only for a week or so. Busted arm nuked his opportunity for RoY. That's the way it goes. Rosario has put up a very solid season and should be in AAA in 2026, hopefully pushing for a chance in MLB. His overall numbers look pretty good, and if you scrub off his horrifically bad April, they looked really good. Of course, April did happen, and he absolutely sucked to start the season, but he's ending it on a real tear. Not sure how the Twins value him at this point, but his RH bat would be a good fit in a future OF group considering all the LH OF we have running around. But he'll have to hit, and the last step can be a doozy.
  11. jmlease1
    Ober was good in limited action in 2022, very good in full seasons in 2023 & 2024. He's having a poor season in 2025 and already we have people around here suggesting he be dumped. Selling low on him seems foolish, and almost guaranteed to have the same people complaining about giving him away for nothing when he comes back and torches us. Cutting him is even dumber. Shut him down for the season when Pablo gets back, give him a full re-set to get right and see what you have in 2026. He's clearly still not right, either through injury or mechanics. But cutting him is reactionary stupidity. Offense did ok, 5 runs should be enough to beat the CWS, but Topa coughed up the late lead. Not great. Hate losing to this franchise.
  12. jmlease1
    It's still so little data on both of them, though Keaschall is at least getting close to a decent sample. Martin only has 81 PA's this season. Both of them are getting on base and taking their walks, which is hugely important. It'll be interesting to see if pitchers can get them to start chasing or swinging in bad zones as they build a book on them. Keaschall's power production and ability to do damage on mistakes should help him continue that way, but Martin will either need to show that he can do more damage on mistakes or be able to wear pitchers out by continually fouling pitches off. If he starts chasing that BA and OBP is going to drop fast and hard.
  13. jmlease1
    Remember when people were losing their minds around here that Akil Baddoo got picked in the Rule 5? Rosario having an epic August. Good for him, hope he keeping raking until the season ends. Still think he'll slip through the Rule 5, because he can't defend like Baddoo did and will be hard to stash on a MLB roster, but you never know. Like seeing Jenkins stay patient, but I get nervous when our star players get plunked. Just want all the top prospects to stay healthy for once.
  14. jmlease1
    Buxton and Ryan seem bound and determined not to let the Twins lose 90. While it'll hurt the team's chances for a draft pick, I like the pride. Impressive for Ryan to hold down this lineup this effectively. The error wasn't great, but Lewis did well at the plate. Would like to see him run a few more of these kinds of games in a row, maybe feel better about him as a hitter going into the offseason. If Martin can keep getting on base (and clean up his mental mistakes) he might have a future.
  15. jmlease1
    Gaetti was a fine player, but he wasn't better than Buxton. (healthier, sure. Not better) Gagne was drafted by the Yankees (he did get finishing school in MN after 3 seasons in the Yankees system). Brunansky was drafted by the Angels and made the majors before becoming a Twin. Gagne & Brunansky weren't stars; good players, not not stars. Bruno was a 1-time all-star, and Gagne a zero-time all-star. Neither has a case to complain about being overlooked. L:et's maybe take off the rose-colored glasses. 1 star is not an enviable record; of course, the Twins do have other stars in Lopez & Ryan, and developed Duran & Jax into star relievers before they were dealt. And maybe Keaschall & Jenkins add to the mix. Not arguing that the current farm system has developed enough talent. They've also had some bad luck with injuries that have wrecked some pretty talented players.
  16. jmlease1
    Abel has plenty of arm talent but the command has to improve. After having a high-stress first inning out there, he really could have used a break, but the offense went down meekly in the bottom half and he got pounded in the 7th. The uncharacteristic error from Lee definitely hurt him. I don't mind the attempt to try the piggyback and get all of our starters innings. I certainly don't want to see most of our bullpen... Bradley did pretty well. 5 good innings and showed good stuff. Can he deploy it consistently? That's the real question on him, and a reason to track him through september at least. Twins offense was pretty quiet. Didn't have Outman getting 2 base knocks on my bingo card. Don't like seeing Royce flail; he simply can't find a rhythm from game to game right now. Offense clearly needs more work.
  17. jmlease1
    Have you been injured by your team's ownership? The firm of Culpepper & Culpepper is here to help. :P The Bad Bohorquez showed up yesterday. His stuff is hard to hit and he hunts K's effectively, but the 3 walks and 2 HBP says what his control was looking like. He's still quite young, though, and patience is required. Have to like the arm talent. Much as you'd like Walker Jenkins to immediately start pummeling opposing pitching in AAA, I'm not worrying about a 1-15 start. He didn't destroy AA pitching when he got his first taste at the end of 2024 and turned out just fine this season. Just stay healthy mah dude.
  18. jmlease1
    Nice to see Zebby go 6 and put up a good start. And good effort from the bottom part of the lineup too. SD is a good team, so beating them is nice. I still don't think Larnach has much of a future here, mostly because the Twins are cheap and next season he won't be any longer, but if he hits like this down the stretch the decision will get tougher. Would really like to see Royce pile up a bunch of games like this and build confidence for next season.
  19. jmlease1
    Here's the thing though: hardly anyone defending Wallner (hell, I dunno if you can find anyone around here at all) is saying he's the next star. People like me are saying "he's a good hitter! we need that!" in response to the seemingly increasing numbers of people who think he's trash. Wallner's not a star. But he has been and can be a good starter and dangerous hitter. An interesting case has been made here for looking at why Wallner's production at the plate might not be the best judge of his true value...but even then I don't think Matthew is suggesting dumping Wallner.
  20. jmlease1
    I'd take that bet: Wallner has had an OPS over .800 every season in MLB where he played at least 75 games. But you've already given yourself an out to discount it, so... I am looking at his overall stats, and the OPS+ of 122 is a little disappointing from Wallner this season, but it's still well above average. It would be ideal if Wallner hit for more average, played better defense, etc. But he certainly can "survive" with even his current production. If he gets back to his career averages he's a dangerous threat in a lineup that needs more scary hitters, not less.
  21. jmlease1
    You realize that there's only 30 guys in all of baseball who are both hitting .280 or better and qualify for the batting title, right? If you add 50 pts of BA to Matt Wallner he's basically Juan Soto. If the only acceptable answer for whether a player should be on the Twins is "he must be an all-star" then you're going to be disappointed forever. Wallner isn't perfect, but he's a very useful hitter, especially against RHP. I'd love it if some of the guys in the minors came up and played so well that it pushed Wallner into a DH role. But we're not there yet, and the idea that he's part of the problem is absurd.
  22. jmlease1
    I'll believe it when I see it. Not getting taken for a ride by these crappy owners again. I mean, it's logical. Of course, if the owners get what they want after locking the players out and change the financial landscape for the Twins long-term where they can easily generate net revenue every year...why would they sell? 3rd Generation Joe can keep playing with the fancy toy and the rest of the family keeps cashing checks. If they've solved their liquidity problem, they might just keep the appreciating asset. I'm certainly not going to trust Shill Shooter's "reporting".
  23. jmlease1
    yes, because RBI's are a good evaluator of how good a player is. 🙄 And not "bad at every facet", because you're ignoring his ability to hit for power, which is seriously valuable. Is he a bad baserunner? He's not fast, for sure, but he doesn't make big mistakes on the basepaths either. Hell, he even swiped a bag the other night. His arm doesn't grade out below everyone; it doesn't grade out quite as high as maybe it should considering how strong it is, but he's obviously not below average out there with the arm because you see guys hold up rather than challenge him. But I get it: you don't like a player with his profile: too many strikeouts and you'd rather have a Nick Punto-type bunting more from your RF. I'm not pretending that Wallner is an all-star, but he's an above average starter and we need more guys like that on the Twins, not fewer.
  24. jmlease1
    No, career OPS+ of 133 is why. I don't care if he's from Forest Lake, I care that he can hit on a team that needs it. Sano was a good hitter for the Twins when he was healthy (and when they didn't do stupid things like play him in RF). I guess some people just hate strikeouts so much they'd rather throw away a good player that watch a whiff. I don't understand why it's so much more important for some people that a guy hits 40 more easy outs than strike out. It's still an out.
  25. jmlease1
    Rosario is absolutely locked in right now. Good for him! I love it when a player pushes the organization. Make them put you on the 40-man through sheer performance. How do we feel about Winokur's season? He's been pretty inconsistent this season and has struggled to make contact in Cedar Rapids. He's also only 20 and been moved fairly aggressively. Time to move him off SS for good, maybe let him concentrate on 3B or CF while he works on his hitting? I'm very high on Morris, but he needs to stay healthy.
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