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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Nice to see Prielipp go 5 and throw 77 pitches. I've been on the train that he should be in the MLB bullpen next season, but his performances this year have me wondering again if he can actually start. He's certainly got the stuff, and it would be nice to have a vicious LHP in the rotation...it's going to be interesting to see which way they go. (knowing the Cheap Pohlads, I'm still betting on a payroll under $90M with Lopez & Ryan getting dealt and the fans being told that we should be happy about the $20M the front office gets to spend in the off-season...which opens up a spot for Prielipp in the rotation.) Glad to see Emma finishing the season in decent form. I'm a little concerned about the power dip this season, but that may just be a result of a bunch of nagging injuries. How to keep him healthy? Be nice if Wichita made the playoffs. They've done a nice job down there this season, in a variety of ways.
  2. jmlease1
    well, something's not adding up here: the page showing Twins vs a LH starter shows Clemens with a homer and quality OPS. His 2025 splits show zero homers and an unplayable OPS. I don't think he's been a league-average hitter vs lefties of any stripe this season...
  3. jmlease1
    Was a bummer to see Bohorquez struggle like that; he'd been on a nice run where he wasn't getting himself into trouble with walks, so it's a bummer to see that come back up on him. But he's still had a good season and has been handling High A pretty well at 20 and you can see why he's an intriguing prospect: hunts K's, not that easy to hit, not too homer-happy...if he can keep the K's down around 3 BB/9 he could be something. I'm still concerned with Houston's hit tool, so it's nice to see him have a good game. We know the defense is there, but he'll need to hit at least a little, and so far he's getting pushed around in Cedar Rapids. Tait's slash line won't set hearts thumping, but at 18 he's doing fine. Here's hoping he finishes out strong, gets on a good offseason program and comes back to Cedar Rapids to start next season and crushes his way into a promotion. Rosario's had a good season. He should be in Saint Paul next season, and it'll be interesting to see whether this aggression on the bases continues and he can keep himself a threat that way. AAA pitching and catching should do a better job of holding runners and throwing guys out, so it'll be a better test. Hope his defense can tick up more in the corners too.
  4. jmlease1
    Because in between those hot streaks, he makes a TON of outs...and because he's selling out for homers, he's making a lot of outs even during those hot streaks. The homers are memorable, and they've been important, but before this September hot streak we had 3 months where he couldn't come near a .300 OPS. We're coming off an August where Clemens hit like the much maligned (and deservedly so) Ed Julien. Clemens is utterly unplayable vs LHP (it's a small sample this season, sure...but he's never hit LHP) so he's a platoon bat at best. I appreciate his hustle, the fact that he's viable at multiple defensive positions and actually adding something there. But guys who make that many outs are not who I want for this team. A final flurry of homers doesn't change that for me all that much. And here's the other thing: he's got no options left so what happens if/when he's bad out the gate next season? This franchise (like many) is bad at cutting bait on an underperforming veteran until it's far too late. Is Clemens getting better at 30? It wouldn't be malpractice or anything if he made the final 26 next season, but the floor is fairly low and the ceiling isn't that high either. But hey, he had a great game. Sands had been looking better lately, so it's a bummer to see him implode like this. Is Adams settling in to this new role? Would be great if he could be tapped as a more known quality for the bullpen next season. I'm still not panicking about Keaschall's throwing; let's see how the arm looks next season when he's further removed from the injuries, gone through an off-season program, etc. But it will be something to monitor.
  5. jmlease1
    It's actually a further indictment of how bad the Twins are at marketing their own product if there are all of these ways of making it affordable for families to go see the Twins, and don't actually do it. Of course of the reasons is probably that these options are complicated and/or inconvenient, which makes them designed not to actually put butts in seats but chisel more money out of casual fans who end up paying for convenience and walk away after they see their actual total bill cranky and uninterested in coming back. I totally agree that the Twins need to become more consumer-centric in how they approach the fan experience. Less marketing double-speak. Better and clearer communication. Actual interest in having fans in the stands over banking revenue from tickets sold before the season starts. Ensuring that it's easy for fans to watch the games when they can't go. Ownership has bungled things badly in their operation of the team in public and less-public ways, and their rare public statement have been tone-deaf and clueless. How about showing some fan appreciate by being honest with fans about some of the mistakes (like how they botched it with their streaming rights and fumbled around with their broadcast rights?) and showing a little contrition? It may be unsavable at this point, but some humility over arrogance is a place to start.
  6. jmlease1
    SWR is the only one who has earned a spot. I'm not judging him based on the return from the parasite problem; we've seen it before when a player drops a bunch of weight during an illness that it takes a while to rebuild strength and they may not get it all back during a season. My fear on trading him is that the value is low because of the injury, but it has to be considered. But he at least has value. SWR is worth keeping If Miranda, Julien, or Outman want to stay in the organization on a minor league deal...ok, I guess? But under no circumstances should their lack of options be a consideration. It's really disappointing on Miranda and Julien after Miranda's 2024 and Julien's 2023, but betting a roster spot on either is foolish. I'd drop them all, and I was a big supporter on Miranda and Julien. But they've been passed by others, and baseball is a hard game. Outman hasn't looked good enough in CF for me to be very interested in keeping him. Don't throw value after him (a roster spot has real value) just to try and chase a bad trade. Sunk cost fallacy at work here, IMHO Clemens really shouldn't be kept either. He's far too inconsistent and even when he's selling out and ripping a homer he makes too many outs. He wouldn't be the worst 26th man, but we're better off moving on with younger players with options, especially with the Twins relative unwillingness to part with veteran players (and Clemens qualifies at this point) who are underperforming long past the point of them being playable. Whatever utility is gained by his ability to play multiple positions is cut by the fact that he's utterly unplayable against LHP. He is who he is, and the ceiling isn't high enough and the floor too low to carry him.
  7. jmlease1
    Let me be clear: I'm perfectly fine with moving on from Rocco. A change is probably necessary. But I don't have the reflexive hate for him that some people do. More importantly, I want to be accurate about where we assign blame, and what we rip people for.
  8. jmlease1
    Back to the ridiculous Sonny Gray garbage again? Sure, keep beating that dead horse. If you repeat nonsense enough times, people will always fall for it. The Earl Weaver comp isn't the insult you seem to think it is: Earl was one of the best managers of all-time, and an early adopter of analytics: it just wasn't called that back then. (also? Earl, much like Rocco was happy to steal bases with players that were capable of it. the ones who were slow and sucked at it were told to stay at their base...) They've become more aggressive in part because they have more players who are capable of running on the roster, or did you think Ty France & Carlos Correa were being held back solely by their manager? They struggle to hit with RISP because they struggle to hit. The vote on Rocco doesn't surprise me and it's not about fan apathy: people just blame Rocco the least for the mess that's on the field. Ownership sucks the most, then the front office for not figuring out a better to way to use the limited resources we had and making too many bad bets along with wiping out the entire bullpen, then the manager. Because at the end of the day, he can only work with what he has, and putting significant blame on Rocco for the bullpen taking a dump on a regular basis with waiver claims is a little silly.
  9. jmlease1
    Casilla developed into a pretty good defender at 2B; he just couldn't hit. Rivas was just a bad player, period. Walker might have been in the trade defense for hitting club...if he'd ever consistently hit. only had 2 seasons in a row as an above-average hitter in a 12 season career, which is why he played for 7 teams. Harris was never a league average hitter for the Twins, after 1 ok-ish season where he played like a decent utility player forced to start he sucked out loud. Is the issue that the Twins have traded defense for offense or more that they haven't been able to find a decent 2B who can stick for 5 seasons at the position period? Knoblauch. Dozier. That's basically it over the last 30 years for long-term solutions at the position. Punto never played even a half a season at 2B for the Twins (high of 73 games at the position), I mean Casilla played there for a number of seasons, but lord knows he wasn't a SOLUTION. Which is why if Keaschall can show progress defensively at 2B, locking him in there and rolling with it might be the smartest possible thing we could do...
  10. jmlease1
    The classic Twins Daily reaction to a prospect not being perfect in every aspect: let's move on to the next guy! If Keaschall can play average or better defense at 2B and hit anywhere near where's been in this truncated rookie season, he's a huge asset. Why would we want to move him to 1B now and still not have 2B solved? How about we just give Keaschall the opportunity to take 100 grounders a day in the offseason and get reps with his throwing, and see where he's at in a Spring Training where he's actually allowed to throw?
  11. jmlease1
    double post
  12. jmlease1
    I'm sure Detroit was thrilled. Tigers are a pretty good team. They also don't have anyone on their roster with more than 50 PA's that has a batting average over .280 and only 3 regulars that have a BA over .260. So I don't know if they're stringing together all that many innings where then send 10 to the plate without an out based on hits. But they do have a 7 regulars with an OBP over .325 and 8 with an OPS+ 105 or better, and have enjoyed decent health this season, so it's not really a shock that they're 7th in baseball in runs per game. The Twins have tried in the current era to go for those "crooked number" innings as a strategic pillar, and you've seen it with how they've deployed pinch hitters to try and capitalize (and they've been frequently pilloried for it too). Bottom line is the Twins simply don't have enough consistent hitters on this roster. Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, maybe Wallner (even when he's racking up K's he's drawing walks, but it's been a down season for him for sure), maybe Larnach, and maybe Martin. That's simply not enough. (I still have hope for Lewis as a hitter and player, but that OBP is not acceptable, especially at 3B) Part of how Detroit is having success is their lineup doesn't have tons of holes and their worst hitters are mostly playing SS or CF along with generally good health.
  13. jmlease1
    This is a dreadful professional baseball ownership. This is a tone-deaf front office (taking a page from ownership). This is a manager who may be losing the locker room (losing and having the roster implode will do that).
  14. jmlease1
    Decent start by Bradley. He may have flopped out the gate, but he's looked ok after that. Starting to look like a guy who could chew up a lot of innings in the back of the rotation. Real utility there with Festa looking like he might be out for 2026 and other starters struggling to get deep in games. The offense needs some real work, and while I think there's some minor league reinforcements that could make a difference next season, they real could use some quality vets to support it. Sadly, I suspect they will be dumpster diving again with my predicted payroll being under $90M. I'm done with the Kody Clemens experiment. I appreciate that he can play several positions acceptably on defense and his willingness to do whatever, but he simply can hit enough. He's selling out for homers, and simply doesn't make enough contact or have enough plate discipline to be that kind of hitter. He's utterly helpless against LHP and expecting any real improvement from him at the plate at 29 seems nuts. Even as a bench player, I'm just not interested. Gasper certainly doesn't look like he should be part of the team next season either, though I'm happy to see the Twins have him catch and get regular ABs to settle the issue now. Let's not have any illusions and act like he just needs more of a chance. Games like this are why I'm still concerned that Royce hasn't found his way on a better path yet. A good week followed by a bad week isn't going to work. I remain unconvinced with Outman, but he did have a good game.
  15. jmlease1
    While defense at 2B for the Twins lately has been on the decline, this article needs better historical research. 2B hasn't been the home of light-hitting defensive players for quite some time, and historically it was a hitters position for quite a long time before the run of it being ok to send out a speedy no-hit guy who couldn't actually play SS to 2B. I'd say it's notable that Cleveland decided to trade 3-time gold glove 2B Gimenez for an A-ball prospect and salary relief...and that the big contract extension that Toronto gave him looks pretty concerning. It's not a trend that started this decade to try and stretch hitters to 2B in MLB even if it's been a Twins trend. (Alfonso Soriano, anyone?) We'll see what Keaschall's defense looks like after he's had more time and reps in the spot and is further removed from TJ and a busted arm. He's certainly got the quickness to get to enough balls, and it's too soon to give up on his glove (having seen it with more than a few infielders over the years, we know that a guy can go from looking like he's got a frying pan out there instead of a glove to being more than solid). But it also wasn't really that long ago in the greater scheme of things that the Twins had Brian Dozier manning 2B. The real issue for the Twins is they haven't found a guy that they could plug in at 2B every day who could produce on both sides of the ball.
  16. jmlease1
    It's why it was probably a stupid trade: Stewart had more value to the Twins than he had on the trade market. we emptied out all of our high-leverage relievers and in exchange for Stewart we got a failed prospect who is getting older and needs a lot of fixing to stick in MLB. The expectation of getting more for Stewart was probably wrong, but it's still a bad trade in that they lost value by trading away a player that was more valuable to them for one who is less valuable to everyone.
  17. jmlease1
    I don't think you're wrong necessarily, but I just have trouble imagining this franchise spending $15M total in FA next season...and that's if they deal Pablo (which I hope they don't do). I think Falvey is going to get handed a payroll budget of $75-80M, because the Pohlads suck. I've been disappointed in Roden's defense so far; he was advertised as being able to play CF and he looks stretched there to me, but he should be a good defender in LF. Fedko has played 2 games in CF for the Saints, and the one I saw he looked...meh. Think there's a reason he's played more 1B than CF in AAA, but he should still be fine in the corners. I could see Fedko getting a chance for some 1B time in MN, but not Roden.
  18. jmlease1
    well, there's also a problem lumping in Roden & Outman as if they should have the same weight as Abel, Rojas, Tait, and Bradley. Outman was a flip for an oft-injured reliever that simply can't be counted on to be healthy enough to be counted on. Roden was basically the Ty France part of the deal with Toronto, wouldn't you say? Bradley was awful in his Twins debut, but intriguing in his next 2. Seems too early to judge him. When he's getting swing & miss and getting K's, he's effective. He's had dominant performances this season in MLB (and not just against bad teams) and shown he can pitch effectively into the 6th inning and beyond. We'll see if he's worth Jax. (who has...struggled since going to TB, including an implosion last week where he faced 3 hitters and gave up a hit and 2 walks recording zero outs) Abel has looked pretty good in AAA for the Twins; sure he got his brains kicked in for his first 2 MLB appearances with us, but there's a lot to like with his arm talent. Rojas is the one where I think Falvey tried too hard to sell the idea of a guy being close to MLB ready: he should have gone to AA to continue his development and not worried about getting him to MLB with all haste. Whiff of desperation on that one when the Varland deal was seen so negatively by so many. No one acquired has looked ready to contribute to any kind of quick turnaround, but writing off Bradley and Abel this fast seems foolish. Tait, of course, is doing just fine at High A; he has things to work on, but looks like he can stick at catcher so far and his shown real tools, while holding his own at Cedar Rapids while just barely turning 19. But this is part of why I don't want to see Jenkins up with the MLB club right now. Everything is so negative (not unreasonably with these idiot owners) that if Jenkins doesn't pull a Keaschall people will be arguing for him to get dumped. Just imagine if he went 1-8 with 3 K's and overthrows a base...
  19. jmlease1
    chicken and the egg, I guess? you never hear any complaint about "culture" when the team is winning, and you hear a lot of them when a team stinks. And one of the reasons you hear so many comments about "culture" when the team is bad is it's easy to throw that term around without calling anyone out specifically. I'm sure Joe Ryan misses Sonny Gray: he pitched well for the Twins and helped us win a bunch of games, including one the best seasons this team has had (sadly) in a long time. But Sonny Gray's bulldog attitude and feistiness and so on means nothing if he's 2018 Sonny Gray. No one is talking about that guy setting the bar and instilling "culture", they're talking about finding him an exit. But from a personality and preparation standpoint, I bet Gray hasn't changed all that much since he left Oakland. Is Sonny Gray making a difference from a culture standpoint in StL? He hasn't made their rotten starting pitching better through his awesome cultureness. They're going to miss the playoffs for the 3rd straight season and have gotten worse since Gray got there. Twins could have been just fine moving on from Sonny Gray in 2024, but the Pohlads picked that as the time to cut payroll. That's how we ended up with Manny Margot, hoping that Farmer still had something left in the tank, relying on Thielbar/Okert/Funderburk as LHP in the bullpen, taking a flier on the corpse of Jay Jackson, and having no options if any of the rookies had a sophomore slump/collapse. They didn't do anything with the Sonny Gray money except put it towards ownership's bottom line. That's much more about ownership than Sonny Gray.
  20. jmlease1
    it's a fun question! I think there's some belief in the Twins organization that Rodriguez is actually the better CF at this point, but that neither are expected to make it their long-term position? The possibilities are really exciting to have an OF of Buxton flanked by Rodriguez in LF and Jenkins in right with Martin as an option off the bench (especially as a RH bat) and Wallner in more of a DH role that occasionally plays RF. I just hope the Twins don't play service time games with Jenkins in particular, but cheap-ass dumb Pohlad ownership... Morris has been on a good run to close the season, and I'm high on him as a future starter. Can he stay healthy and be an impact arm? I'm leaning towards Preilipp and Raya moving to the bullpen to keep them healthy and give the bullpen some non-waiver wire, high impact arms (Adams looks like he could have success there too). Tait has done fine this season; you can see the tools, and while the overall numbers don't jump off the page, doing it in his age 18 season (he just barely turned 19) in High A should change the calculus. He'll need to bring the OBP up, but no complaints for a guy adjusting to High A at a young age and dealing with a trade and a new organization. I suspect he'll be looked at favorably for his projectability. Curious to know more about Sam Armstrong. he seems to have settled in after a shaky start and done some good work in Wichita, but I really don't know much about his pitches or what his ceiling might be. Be great if we ended up plucking a guy who stagnated in another system and we helped him find another gear, but he hasn't exactly dominated even in his best games. Not sure what to think about him other than he probably doesn't need to be in AA next season?
  21. jmlease1
    You're stretching it a lot to say that Roden is "easily" the best bet of the three between Fedko, Martin, and Roden. He might be a better bet than Fedko; probably a better defender at this point, but we really can't say as a hitter until Fedko gets a look. But Martin has shown substantial improvement at the plate this season and has actually done something in MLB to earn a job. It's fair that people including me are probably too down on Roden because of the trade that brought him here, but what has Roden really done to get enthusiastic about? He's hit well in less than a season's worth of ABs in AAA and totally flopped in his first taste of MLB. Martin wasn't great in his first taste of MLB at age 25 either, but he was better than Roden. Roden didn't even look particularly good in the OF.
  22. jmlease1
    Julien got sent down, rightfully, this season and hit well again in AAA. .879 OPS is good even in the International League. It made sense to call him back up once space opened up on the roster. Miranda is the one who has completely imploded.
  23. jmlease1
    Because Fedko really shouldn't be playing CF and the book on Outman was that he could. Plus, Fedko hasn't been added to the 40-man yet. I don't think Outman should be on the Twins in 2026, but I'm ok with settling the issue once and for all now...and I'd kind of prefer that Fedko not get any of the stink of this season on him and have the (rightfully) bitter and angry fans turn on him if he doesn't immediately Keaschall it. I'd like the OF to be Buxton, Jenkins, and either GG or E-Rod in some orientation, and I'd be fine with 2 of Larnach, Fedko, and Martin on the bench for the OF (with Wallner at DH and capable of stepping into RF as needed). That's an OF for now and the future. I suspect we'll get stuck with Roden and a minimum salary scrap-heap veteran, though.
  24. jmlease1
    I like the revisionist history on prospects that looked great immediately and then fell apart (or weren't all immediate and consistent all-stars) that the Twins somehow "ruined" them...and that most of these guys were ever considered in Jenkins class. Royce Lewis looked great from the jump...and then suffered another major injury. He's been littered with them, and it unquestionably relates to his struggles to be a consistent player. But he's developing nicely at 3B defensively (above average with the potential to be a plus defender). He's the last prospect we've had that is on the same class of prospect as Walker Jenkins. Martin, Wallner, Julien, and Miranda were never so highly regarded. (Martin made some top 20 prospect lists early on; Wallner & Julien weren't even considered top 100 guys, and Miranda barely cracked into that when he had a late bust-out season) In past 20+ years the only prospects we've had that were truly in this class have been Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis...and now Walker Jenkins. Even Brooks Lee, who was well-regarded is much more like Martin. Even Keaschall, who is doing great, never ranked so high. (Sano eventually rose to these kinds of rankings, but it took time.) It still guarantees nothing, but to be in the Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis cadre is pretty awesome. Jenkins has answered every question so far, except whether or not he can stay healthy for a full season. Which, considering what has happened to so many quality Twins prospects, including their absolute top-tier guys scares me...but none of the injuries he's had have been serious or the type to have long-term effects. (It's not like he blew out a knee or has a disc problem in his back) I just hope they do a long-term deal with him (7 seasons sounds fine) and he's starting from Day 1 in RF or LF and gunning for RoY.
  25. jmlease1
    Polanco looks pretty much like he did in 2019 & 2021 with the Twins. I'm sure he made some adjustments after a pretty poor 2024, but he's also playing as a primary DH now with only about 20% of his time at 2B, so maybe the fact that he's playing so little in the field is keeping him healthier/fresher to hit.
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