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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I kind of doubt Jeffers will be flipped at the deadline next season; despite being a quality bat that can still catch effectively, it doesn't sound like there was a great market for him this year so it's unlikely there will be much market for him next season as a rental. So what's the point of flipping him? Right now I'd say it's more likely we see Gonzalez in the OF at this time next season than Emma, just because Rodriguez can't seem to stay on the field. That said, I wouldn't be sad if GG has earned a call-up because of his play. We'll see whether Culpepper is starting in MLB this time next season; I'm guessing he might not. He's gotten a little worn down in his first full professional season, and with a lockout on the horizon for 2027 the Cheaply and Poorly Run Twins might look to leave him in AAA rather than start the clock. Regardless, I think Lewis will be at 3B unless he too is hurt; seems unlikely to be traded (right now it's sell low) unless it's part of more payroll reductions mandated by the Pohlads. (he won't make that much, but anyone with a salary above league minimum could be in doubt with this ownership and their desire to ensure an operating profit meeting their requirements) 1B is a real hole. I think they see Sabato more like McCusker: Quad A, not MLB. They may be right. 2B will probably be Keaschall; his defense needs work, but he missed so much time that it shouldn't be a surprise. He's got the skills to well there and probably just needs to the reps. Twins lineup will need several experienced players to find their form/show improvement and a couple of rookies to hit the ground running in order to have a quality offense next season. It seems unlikely they'll add anyone significant; it'll probably be another Ty France type out of the bargain bin if anyone. Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Keaschall, Jenkins could form the basis for a good offense...but there's plenty of uncertainty there, and if any of them falter you're needing something significant from Jeffers, Lee, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Fedko, or Culpepper...the odds aren't really great. Hope I'm wrong. Hope Keaschall & Jenkins are great, Buxton is healthy, Wallner regresses back to his mean, and Lewis finds his hitting stroke again. Hope Rodriguez or Gonzalez is ready to come up and hit the cover off the ball. But betting on hope for a Twins fan hasn't worked too well in the past 30 years.
  2. jmlease1
    Wallner has a .322 on-base %. He's 3rd on the Twins in walks, despite being 8th in plate appearances. It's pretty clear he knows the strike zone. Walker Jenkins probably could come up right now and have a higher batting average since he's one of the best prospects in all of baseball. If you want to make that comp...sure? Not sure it's quite the insult you're trying to make it seem. Wallner's OPS+ is 122. Only Twins hitters that are above that are Buxton (who is having an excellent season) and Keaschall (who only has 25 games). He's one of the best hitters on the Twins, so go ahead keep insulting him.
  3. jmlease1
    So the only stat that matters for prospects now is K-rate? I have trouble taking "analysis" seriously that only looks at 1 number to evaluate a prospect's hitting potential. Fedko is unquestionably the hottest of hot right now and has been doing a great job this season. I've still got questions about him, because until this season his power has been inconsistent and he's never really hit for average before, so you have to worry about his contact rates. It's a small sample so far in Saint Paul, but you never know: he may be a late bloomer who figured something out. Saw him play a little CF the other day and I think his future is in a corner, but he wasn't a butcher there.
  4. jmlease1
    Yeah, Baldelli pulling the infield in early in the game was the problem last night, not Ryan & Kriske both getting hit hard. Or the offense only getting 5 hits. I mean Toronto had 10 hits and drew 5 walks while the Twins had 5 hits and 3 walks, but I'm sure that if Baldelli hadn't pulled the infield in everything would have changed. 🙄 Wallner did a nice job jumping on pitches he could drive last night and hammered two homers. Nicely done. Kriske doesn't look like much more than filler. Cabrera at least is on the right side of 30, but he issues a lot of free passes. Bullpen needs a lot of work
  5. jmlease1
    Ryan has said he wants to be here, but we know there's at least one player who said off the record that the flurry of trades made people want out. Who they are is pure speculation. not that it will stop people from stating "they know" who wants out.
  6. jmlease1
    I don't know that Roden is a bright spot at all yet. It's still early to say he can't hit MLB pitching, but he'll be 26 next season, so he also can't be called a young player for much longer. The tools are intriguing, but he has to hit to make it. His AAA performances have been strong, but the leap from AAA to MLB is a really hard one, and there are a lot of players who can consistently abuse AAA pitchers by waiting for the inevitable mistake or punishing the known weakness that keep a pitcher from making it in MLB who get exposed in MLB by pitchers who don't make those same kind of mistakes or have easily exploitable weaknesses. Roden will get a chance next season, and there's been enough AAA performance to warrant it...but he has to start hitting. If he doesn't he'll be a Quad-A guy, and unfortunately we've seen a few of those lately. At least he can fill in at CF and be a good defender in LF, but we also have Walker Jenkins pushing his way up and there's only so many LH outfielders the Twins can carry...
  7. jmlease1
    Absurd, for many reasons. Wallner is a quality player who hits better than any Twins OF not named Byron Buxton Jenkins has the speed and ability to play CF; you don't put that guy in RF from day 1, especially not because some fans are so K-phobic they want to run a good hitter out of town LF is open, and could use a player who can cover ground like Jenkins can. It's a much more likely landing spot that doesn't have an established hitter Happy to have Jenkins get the bump to AAA. He's earned his way up with a fine hitting performance in AA, and with his early-season injury it seems like a perfectly good idea to get him a taste of AAA competition and more ABs this season. I love his skills with the bat. Really seems to know the strike zone, and there's more power potential to unlock. And even if he's not a true slugger, he could still easily be a 20 homer player who also gets on base a ton and hits for average. Very exciting player who has moved quickly and performed well at every stop
  8. jmlease1
    I don't think the shine is coming off Prielipp, it's just he's had 2 major elbow surgeries and there's real concern about whether or not he'll ever be able to hold up as a starter. This season he's thrown more innings than he has in the prior 4 seasons (college and pro) combined...and he's still only thrown 65 innings to date. I don't think anyone has come down on his ability, and if they have they're foolish to do so. It's fair to be concerned about Bradley: he's new to the organization, not new to MLB. But I also think they people pushing for SWR to go to the bullpen are doing a lot of the "oooh, shiny new thing!" for why they want him moved there, rather than reflect what the Twins might think of him. He's been able to compete as a starter, better than some of our other guys, but since he's not an instant star people are already tossing him over the side for the next shiny object that you can project all your hopes and dreams on who hasn't had a chance to disappoint yet.
  9. jmlease1
    Good thing Keaschall continues to hit, because he's been looking rough on defense. If this had been Ed Julien booting the ball like this, people would be calling for his head. Fortunately, Keaschall has a visually pleasing style at the plate or he might be getting criticized for his poor defense. For me, while I'm willing to give him a pass on throwing issues since he's coming back from surgery and a busted arm...it's not too great seeing him boot grounders. Disappointing start from Bradley, who doesn't really get the rookie excuses since he's made more than a few MLB appearances. Definitely not what the Twins wanted to see back-to-back from two of their most notable trade deadline acquisitions. CWS are not a good team and Bradley got rocked. Offense is bad. Need reinforcements here. Seems unlikely we're going to get them with the Cheap Pohlads in charge.
  10. jmlease1
    Lot of arm talent here, just going to be a question of his command. The stuff looks plenty good enough to hold up, especially if that new sweeper is to be believed. (I suspect it may take him an offseason to really command it consistently) I'd certainly rather see what Mick Abel has got than another round of the Urena Experience. I want real competition for the last two spots in the rotation (still praying the Twins don't send off Lopez and Ryan in the offseason in another money-driven fire sale). Love to have Festa, Matthews, Abel, Bradley, and SWR really competing for the last 2 spots, and no one getting a role on scholarship...and not wasting what little money there is on a veteran retread.
  11. jmlease1
    While I'm unenthusiastic about him, Roden isn't at a crossroads yet: he's cheap and has options. Larnach is in more trouble with the Twins as a poor defending platoon bat who hits RHP well but not exceptionally well, while being helpless against LHP. Larnach is also getting more expensive and while he should be affordable, seems unlikely with this ownership. Roden has flunked his first try at MLB, but I suspect he'll get another chance, especially if he shows he could handle CF as needed. Not saying that's the right move, just more likely. Martin is in much more trouble than Lewis; Martin hasn't looked good at any position defensively (I'm still surprised at how much he's struggled in the OF) and he's not hitting. I've owned property on Martin Island for a long time, and I'm increasingly ready to sell. Lewis needs to hit better, but the Twins aren't going to give up on him yet; the upside is still high and he's looking quite good defensively. The only risk with Lewis' status is his price tag is going up. I'm also not too worried about SWR, who may not be more than a back-end rotation guy, he certainly can fill that role and has shown an ability to make adjustments when he struggles. Seems unlikely they're giving up on him because he lost a bunch of time due to illness.
  12. jmlease1
    Battle of the crap bullpens. Good to have Lewis with a good night at the plate. Him finishing strong would be very nice, even if it sounds like he's worrying about his stats a bit too much. He is looking very good at 3B right now, making some impressive plays and looking very comfortable there. Maybe that will quiet the calls for him to move to 1B. Pretty ugly game with 15 walks between the two teams.
  13. jmlease1
    K. Culpepper really scrabbling right now; wonder if he's getting a little worn down after playing more games in a season that he's ever done before? He's still had a fine season, but learning how to handle 120+ games in a season is something he might need to work on. Mendez seems to be having a bit of a breakout season. Seems to have good bat to ball skills, and if the improvement in his power numbers is for real, we may have grabbed an underrated little gem in exchange for Bader. Be a nice piece of business if this is more who he is as a hitter. Would like to know more about his defense; quality in LF or not? Rosario has quietly put together a pretty good season. He's on another hot streak in August, which is a nice recovery after a bit of a wobble in July. I'm always going to be concerned about his contact rates until he proves otherwise, but he takes his walks and causes damage when he swings. With all the LF OF bats we've assembled, his thump from the right could find a place at some point. I expect him in Saint Paul next season. Wonder how he rates with the Twins staff at this point? Glad to see Morris pitching again. This season has been a bit of a mess for him: injuries and struggles, but I still like his talent. Hopefully he can finish strong and be an option.
  14. jmlease1
    I don't think most people WANT to move Lopez or Ryan; we're just expecting that they will get moved by an organization that doesn't expect to win in 2026 and an ownership that wants to cut payroll to increase their own profits. I agree that even when you're going with a youth movement and relying on your prospects that it's smart to have some quality veterans in place to help carry the load, keep things competitive, show the young guys the ropes, etc. I just have no faith that this team under the ownership of the Pohlads, led by Joe Pohlad, will do anything to make this team more competitive or do anything in the offseason to improve the club in the short-term. I do believe that they will shed more payroll, claiming it's the only way to keep from losing money. (please be clear: I don't believe it for a second when the Pohlads cry poverty.)
  15. jmlease1
    Nope. Buxton $15M Lopez $21.5M Ryan $7.5M Jeffers $7.5M That's $51.5M total for 4 players. To get to $59M you'd need one more guy at $7.5M
  16. jmlease1
    I think this is partly right. They didn't sell controlling interest because they couldn't get the price they wanted...but also because they found a solution to their cash issues that let them keep the team, which is an asset that will continue to appreciate. If they get back to their bottom tier spending ways and start turning an operating profit again, they'll be perfectly happy to continue on owning the team and letting Joe Pohlad keep steering the ship for the family. They've likely generated between $450-$500M in cash from what we've heard so far (more than 20% sold and at a valuation above the $1.7B, supposedly); if they use that to wipe the debt off, there's still money left to do a distribution to the Pohlad family to give them a cash infusion for other businesses/activity. They can run 2026 at a profit by not spending on players and dropping the payroll to $75M, and use that to get through the lockout we're likely to see in 2027. If they're in a better financial position in 2028, why would they sell? The asset will continue to appreciate, they're not losing money any longer, and they have a family member willing & eager to be the front man. We could be stuck with them for another 10-15 effing years. I mean, I hope you're right: I hope the Pohlads sell the rest after 2027, if not sooner. But I'm not betting on it. And I'm certainly not going to bet that fan hatred will move them one bit. Most people wouldn't know a Pohlad if they came up and bit them on the leg, and it's easy enough for them to skip out on going to games, especially since most of them aren't all that into baseball anyways. Our ownership situation sucks.
  17. jmlease1
    Good game for Tait, but he's been scrabbling lately. He clearly still needs development time. Jenkins is having a very good season, marred only by a little injury trouble. It's great to see him hitting for more power without sacrificing his batting average, and still taking his walks. He's looking very dangerous out there. I don't that it matters that much whether he finishes his season in AA or AAA at this point? I guess if the AAA season runs later I'd be happy to see him come up to Saint Paul and get some more game action in, and maybe get a jump on next season.
  18. jmlease1
    I don't understand why Urena is on this team. I get that we need innings from someone, but why are we giving them to a bad cast-off who is nearly 34 and has no future with this team? He's given up 17 hits and 8 walks in 17 2/3 innings in 4 outings since coming over to the Twins. That's not good. (nice error to add to the pile, too) He's definition of fungible, being on his 4th team in 2025 alone. Make him go away. I get that SWR is a ways away because of illness, Lopez just made a rehab start, etc...but why not Mick Abel or Taj Bradley? Why not someone who might possibly have a future? Because Urena does not.
  19. jmlease1
    I don't think they are either, but they would certainly lose $10M per year if the club was appreciating at $50M per year, especially since previously they'd been able to simply borrow against the team for the "losses". But even if they were losing money (a premise I won't accept without seeing the books, because the Pohlads cannot be trusted; no owner can, frankly) it would be mostly because of their own incompetence at the business of running a pro sports franchise. They've completely bungled their media rights and opportunities over the past 10-20 years to the point that now their media rights may be run by MLB. I'm sure it's true that they've run up hundreds of millions of debt on their books...but how and why it got there remains to be told. How much did they assign from "related" business deals? How much was from their contribution to build Target Field? How much was from debt service since they apparently borrowed all the time rather than do a capital call? How much of an actual operating deficit did they run and why? They are not to be trusted on money matters.
  20. jmlease1
    I'm feeling quite confident the Cheap Pohlads will cut payroll to $100M or less. They're already putting word out that they were losing $40M this season on a payroll in the $140M range. They've burned down the team out of competition for 2026 without real investment (which no one should expect), so why would they lose money on a losing team? (this is all presuming you believe anything the Pohlads say about money, which no one should without audited financials in front of you). $95M feels like the ceiling, and $75M feels like the floor. It sucks. Sick of this ownership.
  21. jmlease1
    Your math is simply wrong. You don't use batting average to assess how often a player is going to make an out: that's what on-base percentage is for. Wallner's is .319. Brooks Lee (whom I still like) is at .292. Wallner isn';t going to make an out "almost 80% of the time": it's 68% of the time this season (his worst as a pro). What does it mean that Lee has more RBI than Wallner? Primarily that he's had more runners on base when he's come to the plate, and that he's come to the plate more often. It's not a sign of some kind of mythical "clutchiness". Maybe one of the young players in the minors will end up being better than Wallner, but it's a preposterous statement to say that Wallner should not be in MLB. You're ignoring his production at the plate because you don't like his style. Insistence that players that play a style you like are better than they are and players that you don't like are worse than they are is the worst kind of evaluation. Lee has to avoid more outs. I'm sure he knows this. I don't care if he does it through more hits or more walks (preferably both) but it's been a big problem for him this season.
  22. jmlease1
    That presumes the Twins are allowed to have a payroll over $95M by ownership. If they are, then yes, they should be keeping the starting pitching and trying to extend Ryan, even if it only gets them 1 year of his FA. But if they were claiming to be losing $40M with a payroll of $135M, Correa's dead money on payroll for 2026, and attendance guaranteed to be down next season (the only way they crack 1.5M next season is for them to discount tickets and have fan invasions from MKE, TOR, KC, CWS, etc) why should anyone believe they'll authorize a payroll north of $100M? Never believe anything the Pohlads say. They suckered us once this decade by investing in the team, then pulled the rug out, at least in part because they are utter bunglers when it comes to their media rights and growing fan support.
  23. jmlease1
    The Twins might be positioned to compete in 2026, or at least be able to compete if they choose to...but there's little evidence that will be the path they take. 1) they would need to hold on to Lopez & Ryan, and right now the smart money is on both of them going out the door. Lopez for additional payroll savings, and Ryan because the return will be very high as they continue to re-work the rebuild...and it will also save more money, since Ryan is due a hefty raise. There's nothing to show that the Pohlads won't continue to cut spending, new partners or no, and every reason to believe they will, especially since they managed to leak word around that they were set to lose $40M this season with a payroll around $135M. Now...do I believe them on that? I don't trust the Pohlads on anything related to finances, but it seemed clearly designed to try and get away with "right-sizing" the payroll back under $100M. 2) they would need to actually spend some money to try and plug some of the holes in the lineup. 1B is a real deficit; handing the job to Clemens isn't a sign of a team trying to compete. Could they ask Wallner to move there? Sure, but we simply don't know if he can be good defensively there and even then you're just moving a hole. Now, the Twins do have prospects that might be capable of jumping in the OF in 2026, but a team looking to compete in 2026 isn't going to run out an OF with Byron Buxton and a bunch of unproven rookies...or cast-offs that have so far flunked their early tries in MLB. (I expect Larnach to be gone) We also need a backup catcher (assuming Jeffers isn't sent packing for more salary-savings), because a team trying to contend isn't going to run out Mickey Gasper there either. While I still like Brooks Lee, and Lewis has enough talent that I still think he can hit again (and his defense looks quality), neither are sure things. 3) the bullpen is unlikely to get fixed by 2026. It takes luck and money to patch bullpen holes via FA; we haven't shown much luck in that department, and until proven otherwise, I expect no real spending. There are internal candidates, but right now we don't even know who they really are in terms of moving a minor-league starter or 2 into a bullpen role, and even then there's no guarantee it will work. The closest thing we have to proven relievers is Sands, Tonkin, and Topa...after that we need to find 4 more, and that's assuming those guys are actually good & healthy next season instead of ok/injured. I'd feel very good about the rotation if Lopez & Ryan were there to anchor it, but why should I believe?
  24. jmlease1
    Yeah, but he's a "gamer"! He gets dirt on his uniform and runs hard on every play! That's got to be better than a player who can actually hit, right? #sarcasm There's worse choices for a utility guy than Kody Clemens, but that's who he is. If he's a contender for the starting job at 1B it's because the Pohlads have shrunk the payroll down again and preemptively put up the white surrender flag for 2026, awaiting a lockout/strike in 2027. Looking at the roster right now, the lineup is pretty thin. I expect Larnach to be gone because the Cheap Pohlads will want more payroll reduction, but he also should be moved on from because he doesn't produce enough as a decent platoon bat with little to no defensive value. I'd say management is hoping Roden or Outman can grab a spot, something that doesn't thrill me at all. Hopefully if both continue to crap out they won't keep chasing but I suspect both will be examples of sunk cost fallacy. Martin continues to be just ok and never seems to be able to get his tools to play up (he's not as good an OF as his profile would indicate, his speed doesn't seem to play on the bases much, etc), so how much longer do we keep doing this dance? Fedko is interesting; at least he's trending in the right direction. But counting on him to step in and produce seems...risky.
  25. jmlease1
    Wallner isn't slightly better at the plate, though. He's better at the plate than Lee by every hitting metric except batting average, which is the hill you've chosen to die on, apparently. Flirting with the Mendoza Line isn't good, but is tolerable when you take the number of walks that Wallner has. He's been better than Correa, Larnach, Lewis, France, Lee, Julien, Castro... I'm not going to say he's been good enough, because it's been a down season for him where he hasn't been as impactful as he has before, but to say he failed seems only viable in the context of the entire team failing this season. I get it: you hate Wallner's game. You don't want to have low BA/high K players on the team, regardless of anything else. But you're judging him on style, not actual performance. Lee has to improve at the plate, not because he's 24 or a SS, but because he's not producing enough. You simply can't have an OBP below .300 and stick in an MLB lineup. Andrelton Simmons was one of the best defensive SS in MLB, won 4 Gold Gloves and probably deserved more, but look at how fast he was out of the league once his offense went from just bad to terrible. And Brooks Lee is no Simmons on defense. I still like Brooks Lee as a player, but I'm not blind to his flaws. He needs to stop swinging at everything and be more selective at the plate. He's shown some improvement this season, and has looked better lately, but he need to keep improving, because what we're getting right now isn't enough for a starter, even at SS.
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