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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'd say his Savant page is pretty irrelevant after only 150 PAs? He's not Kiersey either, who was a speedy defender who never hit like Roden at any stop along the way. If Roden can't actually play CF (he's supposedly fringy there?) then it's a real challenge to find him a spot on this roster until/unless Larnach gets moved out. Slide Larnach off the roster and Roden makes a decent amount of sense in RF (strong arm, better fielder than Wallner) if you wanted to upgrade your defense while still looking for potential hitting upside. regardless, I don't want Outman guaranteed a spot on this roster, even if the team isn't going anywhere. No scholarships, especially for guys that are long shots to rebound. Would much rather see open competition in training camp. Let Roden earn it. Make Outman win it.
  2. jmlease1
    I have concerns about his ability to backup CF, but I'd still rather see him get a shot as the 4th OF than Outman. Time to find out if he can hit MLB pitching or not.
  3. jmlease1
    I doubt anyone is going to get too excited about these, but they're not terrible or anything. I still think they got it wrong on the caps, and wish they'd done an update there: the "M" still looks wrong, and they really should have made the star white and the M red (JMO). It's close to a great cap, so it's annoying that they missed on it.
  4. jmlease1
    I think Charlee Soto still has huge upside and is the sort of guy that gets left off these prospect lists because of injury...and then if he stays healthy the next season rockets back up the charts. But you never know how a kid that young will respond to an injury like that, which is why TINSTAPP exisists. I'm pretty excited to see how Dasan Hill progresses, if he gets stronger, fills out, and adds anything this season. There's huge potential there that should be fun to watch. I like GG quite a bit for his hit tool. KLaw and others seem less impressed, but even if his ceiling is "good regular", I'm not going to be too mad because having another right-handed bat that can really hit would be nice. And considering the way he got into better shape suggests that the people slagging his ability to stay in a corner OF spot suggests they're lagging behind his potential there a bit. I'm less enthusiastic about Marek Houston than most. While his defense is legit (he's a better SS than Brooks Lee right now) I have real concerns about his bat. I expect he starts in Cedar Rapids, and we'll see if he's able to hold up. Hopefully he just wore down from the strain of playing more than he ever had, plus transitioning to professional life, and playing in multiple levels in a single season (all reasonable), but for a college bat he looked very overwhelmed by High A last season. (admittedly, a short sample) He can go a long ways on his defense alone, but if he can't hit then he's a limited utility guy.
  5. jmlease1
    A success? Not really. Not an utter failure or anything, but making the playoffs a couple of times and winning 1 series is a low bar to success. I guess it depends on how you measure it. If success is improvement from where we were, then...I guess? I don't think most people measure sports success that way, even if they're not one of the "win a title or it's a failure" types. I'm not a reflexive Falvey hater, but I think it was time to move on. He did some good things, definitely had some debits, and definitely was part of the senior management crew (including ownership) that had lost a large portion of the fanbase. I just thought they should have done it before hiring a manager, rather than after...
  6. jmlease1
    It is a really interesting question with Matthews. He's got the velocity to be effective with his fastball, but doesn't have the shape for hitters to not catch up to it once they get the timing down, at least not right now. Is that something that can be fixed for him with changes to his grip, arm slot, etc or is that something that simply isn't going to be very fixable? If it's something that offseason adjustments can address, you look at leaving him in the rotation; the changeup could improve with a better fastball to play off of or simply from working more with the pitch, and the slider is definitely a weapon for him. That could easily be a workable mix and he could keep working on a cutter or a sinker as an additional offering. If changing the shape of his fastball is simply not a reasonable expectation, then I guess he'll be finding better success in the bullpen, when no one gets that second look at his fastball (and maybe it ticks up another couple of mph) and he can throw 50% sliders and drive people crazy while he works on the change. I'll admit, I don't know whether or not it's realistic for him to adjust the fastball to give it the kind of movement/deception required to be an effective starter. It's certainly true that you can't overwhelm most MLB hitters with straight gas.
  7. jmlease1
    I do think it's better than 9 years ago; we were desperate for starting pitching back when Falvey started; we had an unproven Berrios, an inconsistent Gibson, and an old Santana and after that it was desperation time with guys like Colon, Meija, etc. Hughes was cooked, and there wasn't a lot in the farm system that were options as starters. (the bullpen had guys however) Looking around now, we have more strength in the MLB rotation and a lot more realistic options in the high minors with more coming along. Not all of them are going to pan out, but there's a lot more realistic options to try and make the leap, players that other teams want in trades, etc. There's also more guys to turn into relievers too. It's not awesome (unless a couple of guys like Matthews, Morris, Festa, Bradley, Abel, or Bradley turn into the next Ober/Ryan/SWR) but it's better, IMHO.
  8. jmlease1
    One of the reasons Morris didn't make those lists is based on age and "projection". Zebby made Baseball America's Top 100 once, pre-2025 after rocketing up the minors (3 levels in one season) in 2024 at age 24. B-Ref doesn't have him on any other prospect rankings (though I'm sure there's more than a few they don't pick up, like ESPN) Festa was picked for the Futures game, so clearly someone thought he was a highly regarded prospect, but wasn't landing on lists either. There's always bias against older players in prospect lists and as long as the Twins continue to focus more on college pitchers in the draft, they're going to be less represented on these lists. it's just reality.
  9. jmlease1
    Sure, but almost every prospect evaluator gives extra credit to age and projection, and the Twins have heavily invested in college starters on their pitching side and when someone like Andrew Morris or Zebby Matthews emerges as a real prospect to become an MLB starter, he's already 22-25 and those guys never make a Top 100 for being "too old". I don't have a BP subscription, but I'd be curious how many starting pitchers are on there that are older than 23 and/or are more than 2 years removed from college? Festa & Morris have never made the list; Morris had a breakout season at 22 in a season he started in High A; Festa was a bit similar in rising at 23. Zebby was last season, but graduated though we'd still see him as a "prospect", Taj Bradley & Mick Abel stopped appearing on lists after their Age 22 season...
  10. jmlease1
    I do agree with basic premise of the article: the poor business decisions of the Twins ownership and the rapidly shifting "planning" screwed whatever blueprint Falvey was trying to complete for the Twins. Signing Correa and Pablo to significant contracts and then taking a hacksaw to the payroll in consecutive seasons while botching the revenue side of things with their failures related to media rights and so on was a screw job. That said, Falvey also didn't give himself any insulation when enough prospects that he drafted or acquired failed to develop or translate into consistent MLB players on the offensive side. He improved the farm system for sure IMHO, especially in terms of the pitching depth and ceiling, but not enough guys made it on the hitting side of the world that it would have been more than fair to move him out in the offseason from a performance metric. Now, even there was some of that not his "fault" precisely? Sure. You can't really blame him for Jose Miranda falling apart after getting beaned, Alex Kirilloff having to retire due to a back injury, Royce Lewis getting 2 ACL tears, and things like that. But while there's still some potential stars in the prospect bin for the Twins on the offense side (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper, etc) you're talking about guys that are still either 22 or under or with 2 or fewer years of minor league experience. They've drafted and/or developed a lot of pitching arms that either have promise or made it to MLB, but they also took some risks on injured guys that haven't panned out (yet) and some of those risks left Falvey with less margin for success. Ownership screwed him, but he also made enough bad calls that it's fair to think that a change needed to be made. What's utterly stupid is letting him hire a new manager and then almost immediately firing him. As per usual with the bungling Twins ownership, they did it in the wrong order.
  11. jmlease1
    After 2 successful seasons as a quality starting pitcher, you're dumping Ober into the bullpen after 1 down year where he battled injuries? No more chances, eh? One down season and you're done? Yikes.
  12. jmlease1
    Well, when you lump Bailey Ober in there it seems like you're saying you get one shot and then it's off to the bullpen for you! Why would Bailey Ober be relevant to this discussion?
  13. jmlease1
    well, they're going to need 8-10 starters, realistically, to get through the season. If you move Festa to the bullpen and have a rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Ober, SWR, and Bradley then there's a reasonable question of whether you're better off having the first man up in AAA be Matthews or Abel, as guys with at least some experience in MLB. Otherwise you're relying on Rojas (no MLB experience, didn't look ready for AAA last season), Morris (had some injury issues, never pitched in MLB), and the rest of the "never pitched an inning in MLB" crew. I think one of them needs to be moved for sure, and Festa seems like the best choice.
  14. jmlease1
    I'll admit, I have have trouble taking arguments seriously that casually dismiss a hitter with a career OPS+ of 127.
  15. jmlease1
    Yes and no? I think Clemens is valued for his defense, and they'd like to protect Bell by having him DH more. Caratini is interesting, but a lot of what they're saying has to be taken with a grain of salt (aka, ignored as being Bee Ess). They have to keep Jeffers from pouting, they want to puff their new signing, all that. But one of the biggest reasons Caratini is here on a 2 year deal is it means we have a real catcher for 2027 regardless of what happens in 2026. Now, you can trade Jeffers without having to go into desperation mode at catcher. If you don't deal him and he leaves next season, you're not up the creek. Will they find time for him at 1B & DH? sure...but a lot of it will be fill-in for injury, not first choice. I think part of the question on Clemens is whether they see him as the primary backup to Lewis and/or Keaschall, or if they're planning on Kreidler or whomever lands as the backup SS doing more of that?
  16. jmlease1
    Definitely the kind of numbers you like to see for a reliever, and suggests that the issue with his fastball being flat is the sort of thing that impacts more as batters see it more and get a feel for it. In a relief role, that's much harder to do. I think Festa makes a lot of sense to transition to the bullpen; with his shoulder questions and the other depth in the rotation, along with his pitch mix seem to line him up really well. And as a transitioning starter, he'd be able to throw 2 inning stints as needed as he adjusts to the role without any real trouble, giving them more windows to get him experience while they see if he's ready for higher leverage roles. It makes more sense that having him start the year in Saint Paul, IMHO. And there's others that feel ahead of him in the rotation at this point, especially with the shoulder concerns, which can't be ignored. Develop the slider. Add a little velocity to the fastball. Keep crushing it with the change. That could be a fearsome reliever.
  17. jmlease1
    defensively, Clemens is the best 1B we have, unfortunately. He's one of the more logical backups at 3B and 2B, really. But as a LH bat who is garbage against LHP, you are correct: he isn't a great fit. I agree on Raya: he should be moving to the bullpen. He definitely hit a wall as a starter in AAA and has a lot of guys ahead of him on the starting pitching depth chart (presuming the list in the OP for the MLB rotation is correct, Matthews, Abel, Rojas, and Morris are all ahead of Raya at this point). Even if Preilipp goes bullpen as well there's 4 guys in the minors ahead of him. They don't need to wait for him to get called up before sliding him into the bullpen.
  18. jmlease1
    I hope this is right and Outman doesn't get a job on scholarship simply because he's out of options. Maybe the fact that Falvey is gone will increase that likelihood? But I'm still desperately afraid we're going to get stuck with him as the supposed 4th OF regardless of how he performs in spring training and they'll keep chasing value on him even if he sucks at the plate when the season starts like he has the past 2 years. (and with his defense having slipped, he's even less attractive) Twins have historically not been good about dealing with the sunk cost fallacy, and while Outman on or off the roster isn't likely to be determinative of the season (that's going to be much more about whether Wallner & Lewis bounce back, Keaschall is who who hope he is, Buxton stays healthy, etc) not keeping Outman just to avoid losing control over an asset (especially when it ain't much of an asset to begin with) would be a good sign in a change of administration. Is Roden the answer? I don't know, but he's got little left to prove in AAA. I'd much rather find out now (with Jenkins and Rodriguez and Gonzalez all hopefully pushing for a shot by their performance, not just their tools) than keep wasting time on Outman. The bullpen needs work. It just does. While I do think you can (and should) build bullpens on the cheap, using internal resources and converted starters, it will take some time and you need a couple of pillars. I wouldn't object to seeing Festa slide to the 'pen? He could be a weapon there and after the TOS (which still scares me no matter how many times they say "no, it's the good kind!") it might be a better spot for him. The Slim Reaper as an eventual closer? I'm interested. I thought Bradley was out of options? Love to be wrong, but I think he is.
  19. jmlease1
    Wallner and Jeffers are both legit starters. Varland and Sands are quality relievers. Julien finished top 10 in RoY before falling apart. Steer has been starting for the Reds; trading him away is a different issue from the draft. Apparently you've decided to write off Festa. Matthews, Morris, Adams, Culpepper, Jones, MacLeod, NOwlin and Preilipp for the pitching pipeline? (and a reminder: Falvey never said he was going to only draft his way to a pitching pipeline: Ryan, Abel, SWR, Bradley, and Rojas all count) The Twins pitching depth is far better than it was before Falvey got here. Is just is. Falvey hasn't developed enough hitters from his drafts and development and it's a fair reason to let him go (if Jenkins and at least 1 of GG, Emma, Mendez, or Culpepper hit then his record starts looking better) but the idea that he hasn't substantially improved the Twins prospects when it comes to pitching just isn't true. But I get it: you want all-stars. Looking forward to seeing you hold the next front office to precisely the same standard...
  20. jmlease1
    I need data rather than a feeling, though. It's easy to remember a few times when Wallner whiffed on a high heater, but whether he actually has a hole in his swing? Memory from watching doesn't tell you enough; people inevitably weight the most notable ones and draw conclusions that don't necessarily match to the reality over time. "If you want to convince me of something, Mrs. Landingham, show me numbers!" - Jed Bartlet.
  21. jmlease1
    2018 draft had Larnach, Jeffers, and Sands as 3 of their first 4 picks and they developed Funderburk in the late rounds. While not a grand slam, it's hardly a bad draft, especially for a team drafting late in the round. 2019 was a big miss on the first round pick, but Wallner and Steer early, with Varland and Julien late probably make up for it. The fact that they traded Steer, Varland, and Julien is irrelevant to whether the draft was good or not. 2020 this could end up looking like a disaster and might be one of the more fair picks. Sabato is organizational filler, Soularie is gone from the organization, Raya is struggling to make the last step, and Rosario has been exposed to the Rule 5 draft. This draft might end up being a big fat zero unless Raya successfully transitions to the bullpen and COVID or not, it would be a black mark on their draft record. 2021 still undecided, but they did successfully leverage Petty into Sonny Gray, and have had multiple pitchers make MLB (Adams, Festa, Ohl) with guys like MacLeod, Nowlin, and Fedko still in the system. Jury's still out? 2022 way too soon to call this one of the worst moves of the Falvey regime; while Lee has been disappointing, he is already in MLB. Prielipp is looking like he might have been worth the risk, and while Schobel and Lewis look like they may have topped out, there's still plenty of potential in Matthews, Morris, Culpepper, and Jones that it hardly looks like a bust. If you only evaluate drafts based on whether or not they came up with an all-star...then yeah, it hasn't worked out. But they have drafted guys with enough talent to be MLB players and contributors. Doing a "all their drafts are crap!" and pretending that makes it Falvey's 5 worst moves is...silly. Could they have done better? Sure, but find me a team that couldn't. Want to say that striking out on Cavaco & Sabato in consecutive drafts? That's a more than fair statement and a reasonable contender. lumping in all their drafts as being the worst moves? Hard to justify.
  22. jmlease1
    The problem with the Correa deal wasn't necessarily the deal itself, it's the fact that it was premised on ownership maintaining a level of spending that they very quickly undid. Correa's contract (much like Buxton & Lopez's deals) is fine in the context of a $150+M payroll. At $130M it gets much more difficult, and at $110M it's nigh-impossible. Was the Correa deal the problem or was it the terrible ownership? I think I would have the Nelson Cruz signing on the list, as well: it worked out great, filled a need wonderfully, and they were even able to parlay him into Joe Ryan in a later deal. The Mahle deal didn't work out...but the rationale behind it made quite a bit of sense and injuries are injuries. CES has been awful overall, and while Steer has been ok, his tumble down the defensive positions is notable...as has his rapid decline. The Sonny Gray trade certainly should rank highly, IMHO: they got exactly what they needed, received draft pick compensation when he left, and Petty sure doesn't look ready.
  23. jmlease1
    Zoll is a pretty smart guy and quite talented, and I think it was a good idea to split off the business side from the baseball side again...but the Twins have still bungled this again. If you're going to drop your top guy, you do it at the end of the season and before you hire a new manager. Don't let the old boss hire such an important position, even if you're going to promote from within. Regarding Zoll...maybe he's the right fit? Twins have failed to successfully translate enough of their top talent to consistent MLB players in recent years, especially on the position side. Maybe Zoll can fix that, but it's not like he got here yesterday, so is he the solution or was he part of the problem. Time will tell? Hopefully Tom Pohlad hires someone smart, forward-thinking, and creative to run business operations and turn things around there. The Twins have utterly botched that side of the house, even more than the baseball side, over the past 2 decades. They've botched media deals, failed to grow their fan base (which isn't just about the on-field product, sad to say), screwed up the finances...the list is almost endless on the failures on the business side. They've literally got one success on that side of ledge: getting Target Field built (and with a public subsidy). That is simply not good enough. But the Pohlad track record doesn't suggest they're going to bring in a real leader to drive the train there.
  24. jmlease1
    except Santana did recover...for one season. Hit well for Texas in 2019 playing all over the field...and then was gone again. I could see Julien finding his swing again for a run...and then falling off the planet again. But at least Santana could credibly play some different spots defensively.
  25. jmlease1
    I'm bummed that it didn't work out for Julien; he was so good in 2023 and had an excellent MiLB track record at the plate that I really thought he could course-correct and adjust, but it never came around for him. Maybe a new environment will help, but he never found a defensive position he looked comfortable in (he had stretches where he looked fine at 2B, but goodness did he ever get in his own head out in the field) and without that he has to hit to play. (I was also a little baffled that the Twins never unleashed him on the basepaths, but they clearly must have felt that his minor league success at swiping bags was just a function at no one holding anyone on) Can't really object to moving from him and I'd rather have room for a player with some upside. I was a little surprised they picked Ohl to move off the 40-man, especially when they had all these crap utility guys, but they really must not think his stuff is going to play up. We'll see if they're right. Decent move by the Rockies: pick up some distressed assets for little costs and see if you can find something at the MLB level. They certainly have opportunity. Twins weren't going to get anything for either guy, so getting a lottery ticket like Kaminska seems fine.
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