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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I hope to never see Cabrera again, but Adams still has some possibilities as a reliever. This was the first meltdown in a while for him and he didn't get any help from his bullpen-mate. Laweryson keeps doing the job, which is nice to see. It's only been 7 innings in dog days of a dead season, but maybe he's found something. I'd certainly prefer to see more from him that the waiver-wire retreads. Bradley did well. This is the guy you signed up for when you traded for him, and he's probably got the inside track for a rotation spot for next season. Since I expect the Cheap Pohlads to force a trade on Lopez and/or Ryan, we'll need him to pitch like this. deGrom is still really good when healthy.
  2. jmlease1
    Julien went back down to AAA and started hitting again. Miranda went down to AAA and has been dreadful. Why would you reward Miranda with more MLB time when he can't touch AAA pitching? but what to do with Miranda is a tough one: he's been brutally bad this season. But showed promise in 2024, including real defensive improvement.
  3. jmlease1
    Ideally, we'd be looking for a RH 1B for the 2026 squad who can punish the hell out of LHP who can hold his own against RHP. Sabato doesn't seem like an internal option (he wasn't great at AAA and seems like organizational depth at this point), and I dunno about Fedko. With 13 position players you're looking at 2 catchers, 6 infielders (2 of which need to be able to cover SS), and 5 OF (2 of which need to be able to cover CF). There's a real question if there's a starting 1B, a backup SS, or a backup catcher in the organization right now. Will the Twins be willing to fill an OF slot out the gate with one of Rodriguez, Jenkins, or Gonzalez (or even Fedko)? Buxton, Martin, and Wallner will be back and I strongly suspect they will give Roden every chance to win a job. I'd certainly rather try the rookies than add a Margot-type, or bring back Larnach. Keaschall, Lee, and Lewis are back for sure at this point...are they really going to roll with Fitz as the backup SS? If they actually sign a solid RH 1B, I don't mind Clemens on this roster backing up 2B/1B/corner OF and being the emergency 3B too. Maybe it's Pereda as the backup catcher, but I'm not putting any expectations on him sustaining this hitting at all. That's a pretty cheap lineup. It's also pretty questionable on scoring runs.
  4. jmlease1
    I'm very surprised to see any consideration of non-tendering Ober. He hasn't had a particularly good season, but while he'll get a raise in arbitration he still won't be all that expensive for a starting pitcher, and we have multiple seasons of quality performance in 2023 and 2024 to show he can be an effective rotation piece. I guess all it takes is one down season some people will throw him on the scrap heap. But there's zero chance the Twins will toss him aside. Larnach seems like a fairly easy arbitration decision: He's getting more expensive, he's a platoon-only player who doesn't even punish RHP that effectively, he adds no defensive value or real positional flexibility (he might be able to learn 1B, but will he be better than even Clemens there?), isn't an impactful baserunner, and seems unlikely to improve next season at 29. It's not like he hasn't gotten opportunities: even with the injuries he's gotten in 1500 ABs or so. Someone might pick him up to be a bench bat who can play corner OF/DH, but they're paying $1-2M, not $4. Twins need to be looking higher. Anthony Misiewicz & Michael Tonkin should also be non-tendered, IMHO. Sorry, but these guys are waiver wire type claims at this point like Hatch. Jeffers, Ryan, Ober, Lewis, and Sands really shouldn't be hard choices right now if it comes down to tender or release. Clemens is the only somewhat challenging decision. You'd like the floor to be higher than him as a hitter, but with an ability to play corner OF, 2B, 1B, and in a pinch 3B...he wouldn't be the worst 26th man the Twins have had by a long shot. As a starting 1B, you need to do better. If he still had an option left, it'd be fairly easy to tender him. He seems to be well-liked, works hard, and is a bit of a glue guy. I wouldn't be terribly outraged either way on this one.
  5. jmlease1
    It's not nonsensical: Twins still don't have a lot of team speed. They guys who are pretty good or better at running have success: Buxton, Keaschall, Lewis. Martin has made some big mistakes and that matters; he's gotten better and with better coaching out there (Seriously, how long are they going to cover for Tommy Watkins?) he should do better, and can at least rack up the steals, but look at guys like Larnach, Wallner, Julien, and Jeffers and tell me this is a team that's good at running? Part of the reason they're being more aggressive is it doesn't matter if they get burned, and the offense is so desperate for runs that trying to play for a crooked number is less likely than ever to happen. So they're trading outs to get a single run to try and get something on the board a lot more. How'd that squeeze play work out last night? That's how you lose baserunning value, trading a runner on 3rd for a runner on 2nd in exchange for an out...
  6. jmlease1
    Because they were much slower and had a lot of guys dealing with injuries? Buxton wasn't healthy, Lewis wasn't healthy, Correa is slow (and had foot issues), Larnach is slow and had turf toe, France was slow, Lee is slow, Jeffers is slow, etc. They've added more speed to the lineup. But it's also easier to be aggressive when it doesn't matter if you lose. Why would you run with the Bomba Squad except with the best of the best? It was not a fast team: Garver, Cron, Schoop, Sano, Cruz, Arraez, Castro...this is not a good base-stealing bunch. Rosario could have maybe run more, but Kepler & Polanco weren't good at it and ran into outs. Look back at last year's squad: who were you excited about trying to swipe bases on that crew outside of Castro (who was quite bad at it in 2024) and Buxton (who we were constantly fearing would go down injured again)? Carlos Santana was opportunistic, but not fast; Jeffers, Miranda, Kepler, Farmer, Vazquez, Kirilloff, Correa, Larnach...not a lot of speed there. Now you've got healthy Buxton & Lewis, Keaschall, and Martin getting consistent time and freedom to run. They're still not sending Brooks Lee, because he's slow.
  7. jmlease1
    well, they did it in '87. Even the playoff roster was only 24 (which is just insane). Hell, the 40-man never went past 36! Talk about Cheap Pohlads. MLB PA would never allow it today, kind of amazed it got by them back then.
  8. jmlease1
    A very good start by Zebby. You had to wonder when he gave up the lead off dinger, but he settled down nicely and threw a very nice game. Sure, he got a little lucky on several hard hit balls being collected by the infield (nice job by Clemens in particular) but he also did a good job throwing strikes and missing some bats. Hope it's nothing serious with Keaschall. It'd be very Twins-ian for a one of the few players to have a good season and a guy giving hope for the future getting hurt at the close. (also, very poor bunt. he's got to push that past the pitcher to give Martin a chance to score.) Texas is having a collapse reminiscent of the Twins from 2024. They had a shot at a playoff berth and bottled it.
  9. jmlease1
    Is this where the conspiracy stories start that anything good that happened for the Twins under this front office were entirely because of Thad, and everything bad is only on Derek?
  10. jmlease1
    They'll be lucky to get a rookie ball prospect for Larnach, which assumes they tender him in the first place. Larnach is poor defender who is unplayable against LHP and doesn't punish RHP enough to be all that great of a platoon option. He's also turning 29. The floor isn't terrible on Larnach, but there's little upside. Festa is out for the start of next season at a minimum. Probably can't count on a guy with Thorassic Outlet Syndrome, even if it's the absolute "best" kind, to play before midseason. IKF is a SS, I guess? But he got traded and then waived, so his future doesn't look so bright to me. Even at $5M, which is a 33% pay cut, he might be out of the Cheap Pohlad budget. But they will need a backup SS of some kind.
  11. jmlease1
    I mean, we might as well speculate about the 2026 roster, since 2025 is cooked and we have no idea how much more the Cheap Pohlads are going to demand be cut, or even if the front office is going to be told that if they want to sign anyone they need to find the salary space internally. But there's no way the Twins go 6 OF and 5 INF, especially when as noted there's no backup SS on the roster. (Arguably, Clemens could play 3B in a pinch...but that's more like desperation than a good idea) Maybe they like Fitz enough to have him be the 6th infielder; he'd certainly be a cheap option and this ownership is all about being cheap. Outman should be Out of the Roster, but if you're betting on the Twins fall for sunk cost fallacy on him, then you have to think Roden starts in AAA or they sell low on Wallner. I see little chance of them filling all the bullpen slots internally. There's likely to be 1 reclamation project signed at a discount and probably one veteran they're hoping has one more good season left in them coming in. I also doubt they're ready to move Prielipp to the bullpen yet or Morris. But Funderburk & Laweryson may get real consideration and I think Ohl and Adams should as well. Sands has been showing that maybe he's not good enough to be a fireman, but he's done enough to be a set-up/finish the game guy. I'd let Topa walk: too many injuries, too inconsistent, starting to get expensive (relatively). I would move Raya in the bullpen, but I honestly don't know if he's ready for MLB after this AAA season.
  12. jmlease1
    We all need to get a re-set on Brock Stewart's value, though. I think it was a bad trade trade because Stewart was worth more to the Twins then and now than Outman is/will be, IMHO. But while talented, his injury history makes him someone that simply can't be counted on to fill a role in almost anyone's bullpen. Dodgers acquired him and he threw 4 times before going on the IL, and it seems unlikely that he'll be on their playoff roster at this point. Are they even going to offer him arbitration for next season? But this is why we got such a nothingburger for Stewart at the deadline. Other MLB teams saw him as a guy who couldn't be counted on. They're not wrong. I do fear that the Twins will fall into the sunk cost fallacy with Outman and treat losing him on the waiver as being worse than spending a roster spot on him, which seems crazy to me. 26-man roster spots have value and that value is higher than Outman. Martin has earned a spot for next season, they're not giving up on Wallner (though maybe they should be thinking about 1B and/or DH for 2026), and thankfully Buxton has a no-trade. That leaves 2-3 spots for the OF, and I would not waste one on Outman. Roden is going to get another shot I'm sure (whether anyone likes it or not) and frankly has more upside at this point even if we all hated the trade that was part of bringing him here.
  13. jmlease1
    I think it's because Fedko is the new shiny toy that hasn't had the chance to fail and disappoint us yet. I agree that Fedko should (and probably is) be behind Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and Jenkins in the pecking order for Twins OF prospects, but I understand the desire to move on from guys who look like Quad-A or retreads to someone that might provide hope and/or excitement.
  14. jmlease1
    I think there is, because if you strip out all of the veterans who make any money at all and implode the rotation the same way they imploded the bullpen, there's zero chance of the bounce back season, the overachieving squad like 2017, etc. And from a roster/player development side, just going with a bunch of rookies puts you with no floor at all. There's still a difference between being bad (which we are) and hopeless (colorado). We're rebuilding and should be looking at it that way, but when you also consider how MLB has disincentivized utterly sucking for 3-4 seasons in a row, what's the benefit to guaranteeing you'll stink? It's so hard to find starting pitching that's actually good and consistently good. I guess I look at dealing Ryan (and potentially Lopez) and seeing a future where the team could easily be awful for the next 2-3 seasons even if Walker Jenkins really is Captain America. Or Culpepper is the team-grown locked in SS we've dreamt about.
  15. jmlease1
    Because he wasn't on the 40-man yet? Because we wouldn't have learned that much about him in such a short span and we might as well find out if Outman can be fixed? (seems like no) Because putting any of the stink of the 2025 Twins on Fedko in september would have caused the fans around here to turn on him immediately if he had a bad week? Because Fedko started the season in AA and this is the first time in his pro career he's had immediate success upon promotion, so maybe making him prove it at AAA isn't crazy? I have little interest in Outman, but I don't really think they've done Fedko dirty here, who has still only played 42 games in AAA in his entire life.
  16. jmlease1
    That would certainly guarantee we're the worst team in the league
  17. jmlease1
    Agreed. Roden will and probably should get another look; while he's flunked out so far in MLB, it's literally his first taste of it and he's crushed AAA. While I was unimpressed with Roden's time in CF, the Twins seemed to think he could play there, so at the very least he should be a plus defender in a corner. But McCusker and Kiersey are organizational filler, and really shouldn't even be on the 40-man. Despite Outman's ability to run into the occasional homer, he's been pretty bad for the Twins and should not be given any serious consideration for a job, and at 28 should be looking at a minor league deal. Martin is a nice floor-raiser. (and that's important!) If the Twins go young, he's a nice 4th OF to protect guys like Rodriguez & Jenkins from tough LHP who will get on base any way he can and has the speed to do something when he gets there (even with the baserunning mistakes). He's going to avoid outs and can lead off or get you baserunners at the bottom of the order, and that's useful. Martin makes it easier for the Twins to move Wallner to DH or 1B if they're inclined. He sets the floor for what should be acceptable in the OF next season at a level that is at least solid, as opposed to incompetent or one-sided. This presumes that this season is more of who he is as opposed to 2024 Martin, but it doesn't seem unreasonable.
  18. jmlease1
    They're at like $90M in payroll commitments if they bring everyone back and pay projected raises in arbitration. I believe this also includes the $10M we're paying on Correa's contract (which you know Twins ownership will include in any payroll limits). Dump Lopez and Ryan and replace with minimum salary players and we're still looking at over $60M, which is basically the floor unless Buxton waives his no-trade. (I am not advocating for Buck to waive his no-trade, and I hope he finishes his career as a Twin, even if the team is a mess right now with horrible ownership)
  19. jmlease1
    I hate this idea. I hate everything about trading Joe Ryan, who is the kind of player you should be extending, not selling off. There should be plenty of payroll room for Ryan, and trading him to Boston or anywhere is a white flag of surrender and proof positive the Pohlads not only don't care about contending, but they also don't care if the team stinks or if anyone shows up to watch next season at all. Which might very well be the point. The fire sale might continue, pushing the payroll down to more like $75M as ownership utterly throws away another season in anticipation of a lockout in 2027. Yuck. It's a horrible result in so many ways for Twins fans. So it's probably what's going to happen. If it does, I just hope it's much more like the trade that brought Ryan here in the first place than say the one when we sent out Johan Santana.
  20. jmlease1
    Considering he's at 1.1 bWAR in a season where he's still not close to a full slate of games, I think 2+ bWAR is certainly still achievable even without returning to the all-star level hitting we saw prior to his knee exploding (again), especially with the defense looking stronger. A relatively modest improvement in his hitting and playing 120 games would get him there. But I do agree that counting on him to be a cornerstone with all-star upside is unrealistic. I'd love for it to happen, but until he actually shows he can be that kind of hitter again in a full season, planning for it sets you up for failure. But with the Twins struggling so much to even get 4-5 guys who can be 2+ bWAR players in the lineup, If Royce gets back there it'd make a real difference in raising the floor. After Buxton and Keaschall the next most likely players to put up a bWAR of 2 or better are Austin Martin (which does require some projection), Jeffers or Wallner (requiring a return to form, but at least they've done it in '23 & '24), or a group of rookies who haven't done anything at all yet (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Fedko, or Gonzalez all could do it...but that's asking a lot for rookies) Can't really bet on it from Roden, Lee (who I still think can be better, but I will admit to possibly fooling myself), Outman (blech), Larnach (if he's even here), or even Clemens (who in a career season at age 29 is still only a touch ahead of Royce). Boy the lineup really let the team down this season. probably why we're looking for hope inside of Royce.
  21. jmlease1
    It's definitely concerning how often Royce has been getting himself out the last 2 seasons. And even while finishing stronger this year, he's basically hacking at everything. he's got to find a more disciplined approach that keeps him from chasing, and start hammering fastballs again. But hopefully the fact that he looks like he's got his legs back under him can help improve his base at the plate. He's doing well in the field, showing off very good range, and now he's running the bases better too. An off-season without needing surgery did wonders for Buxton, maybe it makes a difference for Royce too. He's barely 26, but this is the healthiest season he's had since 2019 (aka, before the knee surgeries) and he's still not cracking 120 games. But if he can finish the season healthy, on a bit of an upswing, and a foundation to build on for next season...the talent is there.
  22. jmlease1
    A little bit of a bummer than Morris' last start was a dud, but it's the only bad outing he's had since coming back from injury in August, so he seems like he's on track. If the Twins hadn't added both Bradley & Abel, I think we would have seen Morris in MLB in 2025. As it is, I'd be very surprised if we don't see him at Target Field in 2026. Fine season for Fedko. First time he hasn't needed a second pass at a level in order to perform well, and that seems important for him. I think there's fair concerns about both his floor and ceiling in MLB, but can't ask for much more from his performance this season. You'd think he'd get a long look in spring training with all of the LH outfield bats we have. Looking forward to seeing where the prospect ranking end up, and the AFL reports (and any winter ball sightings) to get some minor league fixes. Hope springs eternal, and it begins with prospects.
  23. jmlease1
    I would say Raya, Adams, and Ohl for sure. Cory Lewis should probably start thinking about how he could do in relief. Twins have found some reclamation projects in free agency, but when they've spent more significant money it's frequently gone sideways to be sure. (It's not uncommon, considering how fungible so many relievers are) But Kintzler worked out, Coulombe certainly, Belisle was ok, and Fernando Rodney did the job. But Colome, Robles, Reed...none of them worked. They could supplement the bullpen in FA and get it back to functional, but the track record on FA relievers is spotty and they simply can't afford to give a guy $8M per and have him crap out.
  24. jmlease1
    Can't agree that the deepening of the farm system is something that went right in a season gone off the rails, because a) it was part of a surrender flag, and 2) unclear the Twins actually made the right moves. None of Bradley, Abel, Rojas, Outman, or Roden have stepped in and looked impressive. (at this point it doesn't matter if Outman plays well in AAA) Tait and Mendez have shown promise, but they're also the furthest away. A healthy Buxton season, Keaschall looking great, Martin performing...all good. Ryan broke through with first half recognition, but has finished the season poorly, which has been an issue for him. Of course, the bigger issue is the Twins need a lot more than 6 things to go right to start turning the ship.
  25. jmlease1
    Andy MacPhail is 72, has been out of baseball since 2020, and his last stint as team president in Philly he presided over exactly zero winning seasons. Bringing him back is frankly exactly the sort of country club nostalgia play I'd expect from this ownership to try and play a magic show to hide the fact that they're awful at owning a baseball team and are cutting the payroll again.
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