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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    when you have too many players that should be platooning, and players in prolonged slumps, then you're going to see a lot more lineup shuffling. Add in injuries and that's the way it goes. Or would you prefer to go back to the Gardy days when he'd bat the 2B in the 2-hole regardless of who it was?
  2. jmlease1
    Personally, I'd have Buxton do it, unless he adamant about leading off. Have either Austin Martin or Keaschall lead off and drop Buck into the 3 spot where his power plays a little more with ducks on the pond. To me the bigger problem with the lineup is the lack of a LH/SH option to be confident in to drop in the 2 hole; right now the best option might be Brooks Lee, who hasn't hit enough for the job, and is slow enough that he might bounce into a lot of DPs unless we stay super-mondo-aggressive on the basepaths. (Now, Walker Jenkins could solve this problem quickly, but I suspect he won't get an Opening Day job, nor will the Twins drop him in the top half of the order right away.) Without signing anyone, here's where I'd land on the batting order: Martin Lee (if he takes a step forward. ugh.) Buxton Wallner Keaschall Clemens Lewis Roden (if he takes a step forward. ugh) Jeffers I could also see flopping Roden & Lee easily, and if you're comfortable stacking 3 RH batters, dropping Keaschall in the #2 hole is fine (I would then move Lewis ahead of Clemens in the 5 hole; prefer to avoid back-to-back lefties). But Buxton anchoring the lineup from the 3 spot makes the most sense to me right now. Writing out a batting order certainly does...clarify Twins hitting needs. Because right now you'd need Martin to be for real, Lee to improve significantly, Wallner to bounce back, Clemens to be more consistent, Lewis to bounce back, and Roden to improve significantly to have a quality lineup. That's a lot of ifs, and Jules don't want to hear about no MFing ifs! But with Buck in the #3 spot, the top half of the lineup could be pretty credible. If Buxton doesn't want to leave the leadoff spot and pushes back, Keaschall is probably the next best option, for now.
  3. jmlease1
    It's an interesting but limited form of assessment going on here. Because they're only picking out the guys that were listed as BA's "top prospect", you don't have someone like Chuck Knoblauch on the list whom the Twins drafted, developed and was immediately impactful and became a star player with the Twins (rookie of the year, 4-time all-star, Gold Glove) before they sold high on him. He'd crush Jay Bell and be a far more reasonable pick for 1991 than Rich Garces, but Garces almost certainly ranked higher for BA because he was younger. Twins at least had 2 of their "top BA prospects" make it to the Hall of Fame. Brewers are going to need Sheff to get the nod or they're going to be a zero for this exercise. Detroit had the immortal Jeremy Bonderman make their Mount RushWAR. Tom Gordon is on KC's, simply because he played for a million years (almost 2/3 of which was with someone else)
  4. jmlease1
    That might be fun! Maybe a tribute to the late, great Fernando Valenzuela? But it's also a pitch that's supposed to be hard on the arm. Think there's very few guys that throw it any longer; not sure there was one in MLB last season. It'd probably be effective if a pitcher could master it because it's so rare now, but also might lead to your elbow exploding, so...
  5. jmlease1
    I doubt there was a single possible hire that would have said much different. While it might have been satisfying to parts of the fanbase to hear the new manager come in and rip Wallner for his low contact rates and high K's, bash Brooks Lee for his low quality contact, beat up on Royce for swinging at everything, etc but would it have been productive? Clearly Shelton doesn't think so with this quote: He's probably right. he's got to establish relationships with the players and build trust in order to make an impact and create change. Getting detailed on player flaws from last season (and there certainly were plenty) in public out the gate is unlikely to help him do that. It will be interesting to see if some of the premise of this piece plays out: that guys failed last season and will be more open to hearing new advice or approaches to their game. You hope they will, but I'm guessing there will at least be some who will be looking backwards ("what did I do to get here in the first place? I need to do more of THAT") and not necessarily forwards.
  6. jmlease1
    My brain knows it's not logical or realistic, but my heart can't give up on Canterino either. It'd be great if he could finally somehow stay on the field. The stuff has been awesome whenever he's actually been able to throw. Don't know if that damaged wing will ever be able to hold up enough to let him show is talent in The Show, but I keep holding out hope. I freely admit it: it's totally ridiculous to bet on Canterino being a real contributor to the Twins in 2026. And yet...
  7. jmlease1
    Lopez being back and healthy is a very good sign for the rotation and the Twins prospects in 2026. It's fair to be concerned that he's going to get dealt for prospects in a salary dump: Cheap Pohlads have given no reason to write this off. But right now, he's our guy, and having him lead the rotation is impactful for sure. I have trouble getting too excited about Festa at this point, though it is good news that they're expecting him to start throwing soon and be ready for a normal spring training. But it's still hope not reality yet, and his injury and recovery are one to worry about. Until we actually see him throwing in spring training, I don't know how you can slot him into any role. Twins have talent and depth in the rotation, and it's the best part of the team right now. But they still have questions there, and with the Cheap Pohlads still playing mystery box on payroll, it's reasonable to be fearful that more salary dumps are pending and no effort to compete in 2026 will be coming.
  8. jmlease1
    What exactly do you think "they" are going to do to stop him?
  9. jmlease1
    He seems like a really good fit for the role and definitely wanted it. I like the move. That said, he's got a lot of work ahead of him to help identify the right guys to come into the bullpen, coach up guys that might have promise but aren't there yet, guide former starters through the transition, etc. Hawk is going to need a talent infusion to work with.
  10. jmlease1
    He clearly pursued this. Plenty of quotes out there from him expressing his interest. He will have a different relationship with the players being their coach rather than a special assistant who shows up from time to time or a broadcaster who is expected to review their performance in public, and that might be important to him. He has plenty of experience as a player and has done some coaching, so seems like a fine choice, especially working with other established coaches. Hope he does well and helps some guys who came up as starters successfully make the transition to the bullpen like he did.
  11. jmlease1
    This is flat-out ridiculous. You're blaming the Twins for Kirilloff's back problems? (BTW, would love to know the secret medical reports you apparently have that says that Kirilloff and Miranda had the same back injury, since there's been nothing published about it) The Polanco stuff is utterly irrelevant to Miranda, but I'm guessing you're accusing Seattle of mismanaging him as well, since in 2024 he didn't make it to 120 games and played poorly (for him). Your dates are also wrong on Polanco: he was pretty healthy in 2019, played a career high for games and had one of his best seasons as a pro, including making his one and only all-star appearance. Keaschall and Miranda's injuries also were not the same, but more importantly the way Miranda played to start 2024 suggests he was ready resume his business at 3B You're simply wrong about Miranda in 2024: he started the season with the Twins primarily playing 3B with some DH; he quite literally didn't play his 2nd game at 1B until JUNE. Miranda also did not miss the rest of the season in 2024; he was playing games in September. Miranda was also not struggling before he got beaned, he was in fact in the middle of one of the best stretches of his career: take a look at the game logs. He was awesome in June & July, which is part of why his finish to the season was so disappointing...but also why it's increasingly reasonable to look at that injury as being significantly damaging to Miranda's career.
  12. jmlease1
    The toughest step for a pro player is the last one, right? At the end of the day it';s about the player not Rocco. Is it fair to say the Twins have not developed enough MLB talent from their position players over the past several seasons? Sure is, and it's the biggest reason why i was ready to move on from Falvey & Co this offseason. But there's very little on the ledger to say they actually screwed up with Miranda. he battled injuries and appears to have lost. I don't blame the front office for Royce Lewis blowing out his knee multiple times or Pablo Lopez tearing a muscle or Joe Ryan doing the same. I do blame them for not drafting/developing enough talent. But Miranda doesn't look like an organizational failure: he took a while to develop in the minors, came on strong, made it to MLB (a success for a 2nd round pick) and showed real promise as a hitter in 2022, with defense that needed work. 2023 he was hurt. 2024 he came back and looked good at the plate and improved defensively, and fell apart down the stretch last season with everyone else, with his slide beginning not long after the beaning, which in retrospect seems significant. 2025 he was ineffective and then got hurt and then stunk after demotion. seems more about the player and his health to me.
  13. jmlease1
    He played 3B, 1B, and DH for the Twins in MLB (I'm not counting the oddity of his one "appearance" at SS). He looked his best defensively at 3B and his worst at 1B. How was he a 1B that the Twins asked to play other positions? It's a bummer that it's gone to hell for Miranda, whom I liked a lot and was hopeful he could be a dangerous hitter in MLB. But this sure seems like a case of a player whose physical capabilities were reduced as a result of multiple injuries, and wasn't able to compensate. (I do think there's a real possibility the beaning impacted him much more than we realized, especially since he came back quickly. To me, that's an injury the same as pulling a hammy) I was surprised they let Laweryson go, but he's still a fairly marginal arm. But considering how short we are on bullpen options, why not keep a cheap controllable option that showed a little promise?
  14. jmlease1
    Please explain how the Twins mismanaged Jose Miranda. They moved him to 3B in order to give him an opportunity, and he showed real improvement defensively there. He couldn't stay healthy and completely fell apart at the plate. (It's notable that his decline started not long after getting beaned) That's on the Twins management?
  15. jmlease1
    People around here are obsessed with Luis Arraez. He's a decent player, but he's very one-dimensional. Sure, that one dimension (hitting for average) is one that the Twins haven't been good at lately but if we're spending anywhere near what the current projections are for his next contract, don't you want someone who brings more to the table? Apparently Arraez gets a pass on his defense (he's not good at it). And his speed (no advantage on the bases, hits into a lot of DPs). And lack of power. (hasn't slugged over .400 since 2023) And lack of walks (his BB% in 2025 would have been 20th on last year's Twins, beating out only Ty France [a reason to stay away from a reunion with France] and the immortals Carson McCusker, DaShawn Kiersey, Alan Roden, and Jose Miranda none of whom were even out of small sample size.) Why exactly is Arraez at 1B/DH such a good idea again? Because he doesn't strike out?
  16. jmlease1
    Andujar is worse against RHP than LHP, but he's not bad. You probably want to give him days off against the best RHP but you don't need to hide him the way you do with most LH hitters against LHP. His OPS against RHP is still above league-average hitting. He's the most interesting option to me, although he certainly comes with risk considering his inconsistent track record. If he hits like he did last season, he'd be a real asset, and could keep Clemens from getting overexposed. They'd still need improvement from Wallner/Lewis, health from Keaschall/Buxton, and someone from the Roden/Rodriguez/Gonzalez/Fedko/Jenkins contingent to step up to field a serious lineup that could score enough runs, but it could fill a significant hole in a reasonable way.
  17. jmlease1
    Well, that's not entirely true: He'd seen some higher leverage use when the Twins first tried him in the bullpen, and they gave him a lot of opportunities in 2025 as well after starting him out a little more slowly. And it could definitely work out that way with any of the myriad array of starters they could shift into relief roles (though expecting all of them to immediately be Varland is unrealistic), but it still means you're starting the season with no real experience in high-leverage roles outside of Sands. Even adding a former closer looking for a last good season in the sun probably makes an impact as someone who can handle the 9th without everyone needing a stress ball through June... I do think moving Raya in makes sense and I'd like to see him competing with Ohl & Adams for a job. And I certainly wouldn't object to Prielipp taking it on, because I do agree that he could be a top-tier option in the bullpen, and it might be the best way to use him and keep him on the field. (But I do have dreams about seeing what that guy could do as a LHP option in the rotation...)
  18. jmlease1
    There are some internal options that should make the bullpen more viable for next season, but they're absolutely going to need to supplement with some actual names and contracts in free agency if they have any intention of fielding a competent bullpen from the jump in 2026. (they still might be able to get to a competent bullpen with almost exclusively internal options and waiver-wire types, but it's unlikely to shake out that way immediately; they'll need to sift out too many guys to expect even solidity at the start of the season.) I would say they need to spend $10-15M on veteran bullpen arms in order to get at least 1, preferably 2 pitchers that have some experience in handling higher leverage roles, and they should be looking to add in another LHP so that they're not starting out with only Funderburk as an option. (frankly, a reunion with Coulombe probably won't cost that much and he'd immediately add confidence in facing lefties in close and late situations) I'm fine with bringing back Topa (he's not expensive and can be effective in middle relief) and Sands is solid enough. Adams and Ohl interest me as options who can pitch more than 1 inning at a time, but also may continue to improve when you take the starter label off them and even reduce the idea of them being "bulk" pitchers. FA Reliever A, FA Reliever B, Sands, Topa, LH Reliever C, Funderburk, Adams, and Ohl would be trending towards acceptable. I'm reluctant to assign Festa to anything until we really know he's available after Thorassic Outlet Syndrome. Not sure I'm ready to move Matthews into the bullpen yet, but he would certainly improve the top end over someone like Ohl or Adams. Think the team is still looking at Prielipp as a guy who can start, but if he goes into the bullpen he'll likely immediately be the best pitcher there. But they really need to spend a little money this season on some FA. I normally agree with the idea of building your bullpen on the cheap, using internal options and converting failed starters to get there, but they wiped out so many guys from last year's 'pen they simply can't expect to fill it back up internally in one season.
  19. jmlease1
    B- seems fair. I mean, some people are going to give any hire made by Falvey or the Pohalds an automatic deduction and presume that anyone they bring in can't be higher than a C and will grade them lower with a D or F without any real reference to what Derek Shelton might bring to the table or his actual deficits as a manager might be, so there's certainly that. I think it's very difficult to grade most managerial hires, since the bulk of the job is behind the scenes, and most of them are media savvy enough at this point to not say anything substantive in their press conferences? Shelton didn't get it done in his first managerial stint. Was it because he's a bad manager, or because the Pirates stink, their minor league system didn't develop much talent, the front office never signed anyone impactful, and their trades haven't yielded nearly enough wins? Someone like Torii Hunter might have been a sexier pick, but would he have actually been a better one? Frankly, I'm skeptical. Great players are usually not great managers. It's not like the organization Torii's been working in has accomplished anything while he's been advising/coaching/assistanting; in fact they've been seen as one of the more dysfunctional. Would we have been better off with someone with no prior ties to the organization? That's certainly a knife that cuts both ways. Who knows? B- seems fine. Seems like a good enough guy, so let's hope he can do some things.
  20. jmlease1
    I think this is right. I suspect some people were hoping to see him immediately go rogue with his contract safely signed, or do some performative blustery BS to distance him further stylistically from Rocco and/or stick a knife into Falvey. But that was never realistic for well...anyone? Manager press conferences like this are pretty meaningless. I'll be more interested in seeing how much changeover there is on the rest of the on-field staff, and then seeing what happens with the roster. Next marker for Shelton will really come in Spring Training, when there's an opportunity to see what he has the team doing differently. I can tell Nick is out on Shelton already, though. But that seems to be more of a side-effect of him being out on Falvey and ownership than anything really to do with Derek Shelton. Which is fair: can't really blame anyone for having a "prove me wrong" attitude about the Twins right now. (while I don't have the same utter contempt for Falvey that some around here do, I would have moved on from him in the offseason and started this rebuild with a) someone else, and 2) a clean slate. Of course, I was also begging for new ownership. We don't get what we want, sadly...)
  21. jmlease1
    And yet people keep pushing the narrative. There's plenty of reasons to have moved on from Rocco (and to move one from Falvey) that people shouldn't need to invent them, but some of this about trying to invalidate any successes they've had on the field. (possibly to get installed a style and principles some people find more pleasing or are convinced will be "better".) Notably, Gray hasn't been better since going to StL, nor has he pitched deeper into games. And Gray's name is now coming up in trade rumors, though it might be difficult with him being owed $35M next season with a buyout for $5M more for 2027 if they don't pick up his $30M option. Anyone looking to pay Sonny Gray $40M next season or $65M for the next 2? Seems like the Twins made the right call in getting the comp pick and moving on... Back to LaTroy: he seems like he could be a good fit for the Twins staff. Sounds like he's interested in doing it and realizes the additional time commitment that will come with coaching. Twins have frequently utilized pitchers who have needed to re-invent themselves in the bullpen, so Hawk's experience there might be a real bonus.
  22. jmlease1
    Boadas seems to have some stuff. We'll see if he learns to control it enough to be an actual prospect in any role. Can't be this wild and prosper. Glad to see Amick finally get off the schnide. He did well in cedar rapids when he was healthy, so I'm sure this has been frustrating for him. Hopefully this gets him on track for the AFL and he can finish on an upswing. It'll be interesting to see where he starts the season; I think if he'd crushed it in the AFL they might have bumped him to AA, but it wouldn't shock me to see him start the year back in Cedar Rapids. We'll see. Winokur needs to start translating all that athletic ability into production; maybe getting him off SS (where he's simply not going to stick) would help? Finding him a realistic defensive home seems like a good idea, whether that's 3B, OF, or 1B. Glad to hear that Mendez isn't hurt and hopefully he can get his personal matters resolved and that it's nothing too serious. he had a fine season coming over from the Phillies system and his hit tool looks pretty interesting. With all of the OF talent we have in the system, I'm not going to complain at all if he shifts down to 1B either.
  23. jmlease1
    I'm a little surprised, but France did field the position well when he was here. His range was a little limited (which is why I'm surprised; he wasn't exactly impressive tracking balls into foul territory and turning them into outs) but he did an excellent job scooping low throws (which was his calling card coming into the season) and did a good job handling anything hit at him. Too bad he seems to be a below average hitter with no pop left in his bat now.
  24. jmlease1
    I see fans from the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays, Padres, Giants, and maybe Cards & Cubs to be offering several lottery ticket type prospects from the bottom of their top prospect lists in exchange for Ryan and/or Lopez and expect Twins fans to be grateful that they have deigned to toss us a few scraps for our best players. The media will mostly scheme ways to get our best players out of here on to big money contenders and care very little about what the Twins get in return. This will not be an enjoyable part of the offseason.
  25. jmlease1
    I'm calling BS on this one: DeBarge was certainly talked about plenty around here, especially with the gaudy stolen base numbers. But go ahead, keep pushing your narrative that Falvey doesn't care about defense in the face of picking DeBarge in 2024 and Marek Houston in 2025. Is DeBarge going to make any national prospect lists? Doubtful, because stolen bases and superior defense in A-ball isn't enough. The bat does count, and DeBarge's needs to improve or his speed and skills on the bases won't matter. He had a very fast start in Cedar Rapids and then lost all pop in his bat with long stretches where he simply couldn't make nearly enough contact either. I'm thrilled his defense has been better than advertised and he's got a couple of tools in the bag, but right now he's likely to start back in Cedar Rapids rather than move up to AA until he shows he can get overwhelmed by the pitching down there, even with his glove glittering.
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