jmlease1

GG crushed it in Cedar Rapids this season. And for all that Wichita might be a hitter's paradise, the team average is a .777 and the league average for the Texas League is a .704 OPS, so GG is crushing both of those too. He's 3.1 years younger than the league average in AA too. His K-rate has been spectacular. Are we being fooled, or are people maybe looking too hard to find a reason to dismiss GG's performance on the field? I mean, hitting .370 with more walks than K's in over 200 ABs for a player in their first taste of AA when they are quite young for the league...at some point maybe it's just that the kid can hit? Heck, he's even hitting into fewer DPs! :)

I can't decide what to think about Winokur. The athleticism is impressive, and when he's cooking at the plate he looks like an absolute stud...and then he has these stretches where he looks utterly lost at the plate and I wonder whether he can make enough contact to get out of A-ball. He's showing he can still play at SS, which I had doubts about, so props to him for continuing to grow defensively. I'd feel a lot better if I knew for sure that his last month at the plate was a better representation of where he's going than his first 2 months. He's on an absolute tear in July and done better every month...but he started off the season looking way over his head. But I agree this is a nice list.

We just spent our first round pick on a glove-first SS and have added several prospects in the last couple of years with speed & defense as well. People need to get past the mindset that this front office has one specific type of player they draft, because there's pretty consistently guys that come along before or after that break that mold. First it was they only draft slow college sluggers, then it's small college pitchers, then it's they won't draft high school pitchers, or they won't draft speed or defense, and then it's they like drafting injured players (right now it seems to be "they won't draft catchers" the most) but the reality is they simply don't appear to be dogmatic about anything in the draft other than going for what they perceive as the best value in the draft and that they don't draft for "need". I mean this year they drafted a glove first college SS, a major college/conference starter coming off an injury, a hyper athletic high school kid, a smaller (southern) college starter, a major college starter, a juco starter, and a high school SS with their first 7 picks. I'm quite certain they plucked GG from Seattle because he was the best prospect they thought they could get from Seattle in that trade, regardless of tools/background. They're all about value. Whether they always get proper value for their picks and players...YMMV. But I simply don't see a team that falls into those neat categories of "they don't value defense" or "they're obsessed with homers" or even "they don't care about strikeouts" that people like to put on the front office.

Interesting comp, but the LH v RH change might impact the upside, as Larnach is a platoon bat. Larnach also has the missed 2020 minor league season screwing up his development and a litany of injuries that have held him back as well. GG had a bit of a lost season in 2024 because of injuries, but so far he's been healthy in 2025. Larnach did have 23 homers in 2023 between 2 levels, and looks like a guy who can give you 15-20 homers in a full season? If GG can be Larnach with 50 more points of BA, he's probably a good enough hitter for your corner OF and more than a 1-1.5 bWAR player in a full time role. It'll be interesting to see how he develops. I feel like Larnach's development got messed up by the missing 2020 minor league season and nagging injuries (playing through turf toe can be done, but it's going to drag you down). If GG can avoid the injury bug, I think he can be better than Larnach?

Gladden was a much better defensive player than GG has shown, and a much worse hitter. I'd argue that Gladden was a bit overrated on the basepaths, as he got thrown out more than you'd like (70% success rate just isn't enough), but GG really doesn't look like he'll be much of a threat with his (lack of speed) speed. GG is going to have to hit quite a bit better than Gladden to have a significant career, unless his defense improves a lot. I don't really see the comp here.

I think you can argue that the evaluators didn't really miss on Arraez, he just managed to exceed expectations for a couple of fun seasons. I don't know the GG has it in him to be a batting champion, but it does look like he's got enough pop in his bat and ability to take a walk to put up an OPS in the .800 range, which is just fine for a corner OF, even if they're not a great defender. If you think his slugging is a mirage, and that he simply won't be able to rack up enough doubles and get to 10-15 homers...then yeah. He won't hit enough to play corner OF. If you think his OBP is propped up too much by minor league pitchers who miss the zone wildly and he'll be swinging at everything as he tries to make the last leaps...then yeah. He's not going to get on base enough to be a corner OF. But the numbers he's put up in the minors to date suggest a different hitter. I value results on the field more than projection or even scouting evaluation of tools, but that's a personal preference. It can be a challenge to find a good comp for a player like GG. I think it's fair that his tools are more limited, and most of the time with guys like that their strongest tools aren't usually good enough to overcome their deficiencies, which start to show more as they move up in competition. Usually guys who are slow but have a great hit tool tend to show out power production fairly early. Guys who hit for high average but don't have big home run power often have speed as an additional tool in their bag rather than a big arm. He's an unusual prospect that maybe doesn't fit the mold well, which could lead to him be undervalued...or have a difficult path to make it to and stick in MLB? Right now, though, he's hitting up a storm in AA at 21 and looking like he can handle more. That feels worth the risk to me.

It's pretty unusual these days for a player to get picked high in the draft and not sign. They almost always have it worked out in advance when they pick a player whether or not he'll sign at his slot value or have determined how much above or below slot will get the job done. The days of a high pick declining to sign with a particular franchise to go to college or play indy ball and re-enter the draft is pretty much dead. Once you get into the lower rounds, sure, but not top picks.

Polanco was not good last year and became a free agent, and was so sought after he had to take a pay cut. Let's not pretend otherwise, ok? He's been a good hitter this year, but is now relegated to almost exclusively playing DH because of his injury history and increasing lack of mobility, so he's no longer really even versatile. I don't believe you need to have significant HR pop to be an effective MLB hitter and play OF/DH. While that may be the normal mode, you can get to good offensive production in multiple ways, and if Gonzalez continues to be a good line-drive hitter with doubles power and the occasional dinger, it'll be fine. The Arraez comp is interesting, but ignores how much more power production GG has already shown in the minors; Arraez never topped a .450 SLG in any season the minors (no, 3 games of A-ball in 2017 doesn't count). GG has done it multiple times already and might finish this season with a SLG over .500 (something Arraez never came close to). That's plenty of pop to be effective even if you're not clobbering homers. GG isn't just a slap hitter rolling up singles for an empty BA. Maybe he won't be able to sustain it as he advances, but right now, he's hitting line drives, taking walks when they're there, and showing off an impressive hit tool. The problem with Arraez wasn't that he didn't hit homers, it was when he wasn't hitting doubles either or taking walks he needed to hit an ungodly amount of singles in order to have real value. GG has a history of adding 70-80 pts to his OBP beyond his BA. Arraez was more like 50 pts in the minors (which he improved on early in MLB, but has shrunk to 30 pts in the past 2 seasons, which is a real reason why he's not effective now). GG is showing more pop in his bat as well. If he can be a guy with a triple slash of .300/.370/.430 do we really care how he gets there? (BTW, that would be better than any OF the Twins have in MLB right now not named Byron Buxton) GG is healthy this year and raking. Can't wait to see him in AAA.

It'll be interesting to see what kind of market there is for Bader if/when the Twins become sellers. He's filled the role the Twins brought him in for nicely, though I do worry about him getting exposed with too many PAs, but his defense is clearly still first-class. You'd think someone would be interested, especially with his very reasonable contract. It's notable that Kepler had been so bad; while I had zero interest in retaining him for the Twins, especially at this kind of price, I thought someone would give him a mutli-year deal. Looks like the rest of the league outside of Philly saw a player in decline too that was unlikely to bounce back. Philly has mostly been protecting him against LHP (which he still can't hit) but he's also struggling against RHP and the defense has been surprisingly bad. Sorry, Max.

we'll where the team stands after the trade deadline. Seems like that's the right time to juggle the rosters a bit, when you know exactly what you have. But Culpepper & GG have been doing everything right so far, and I'm really impressed with how well they've taken to AA. That said, it is still only 19 games at AA for Culpepper, and Jenkins is only at 26 for the season after the injury. Fedko is a guy I'd like to see get moved up: not sure we'll learn anything more about him in AA at 25, so if there's any belief in him at all as a player, he should get tested at AAA soon.

It's cute that you're still evaluating a player based on RBIs. A very good win against a bad team. I'd feel better about avoiding the sweep if Colorado wasn't a shockingly awful team, and the two stinkers the Twins put up out the gate have cast a real pall on the road trip for me. But can't do anything about that now. Be great if this gets Royce Lewis going, finally. He's still got plenty of talent, and I'm not ready to give up on him. Correa is slowly grinding his way back too; nice to see the OPS over .700 again. will be interesting to see if the Twins can salvage the trip with good performances in LA. For those who are pushing and pushing the Twins to blow things up and sell off, the Rockies are a good example of how it goes wrong. This is an awful team with no hope in the near future. Now, the Twins system isn't empty and even in a fire sale there will still be more MLB talent left on the roster than what we see in Colorado right now, but...

I'm not all that surprised that the Twins went with a pitcher with a different arsenal than what's they've acquired recently. We've seen them add different pitches to a player's mix as they've developed before, including after they've reached MLB, and they've gone for outliers before (i.e., Cory Lewis and his knuckleball). I would argue that the clearest pattern the Twins have in drafting is to go for value wherever they're picking and that they try not to be too dogmatic in only picking certain types of player. When we see "shifts" in who they're drafting I would argue it's more about where they see the best value in that particular draft. Riley Quick is an interesting pick with a lot of upside and the potential to progress quickly. While I don't think the Twins seek out pitchers coming off a serious arm injury, they're not afraid of it either and will go there when they see a high-value opportunity, and I think that's how they viewed Quick. Should be worth checking out.

Try again. My point on the Ryan trade was that even an organization as well-respected as TB can miss on what they have in their own players. Do you really think they would still have done that deal in hindsight? They missed on IDing Ryan's potential. Miller had better be a gold glove MLB SS, because otherwise he has almost no value. Great, he finally barely cleared a .700 OPS in AA to get to league average in a relatively small sample size. Even if he's Andrelton Simmons on defense (unlikely), he's going to get smoked at the plate unless something changes. (BTW, Simmons had a .791 OPS in AA against a league average of .709) Simmons could at least hit some when he first came up; Miller looks more like end of career Simmons at the plate, which pushed him out of the league at 32 because while he was still a fine defensive SS he was a zero at the plate. But my point stands: no team is so good at player development that you should ignore their cast-offs or refuse to trade with them. Teams will miss on guys. Players might need a new perspective to get their own stuff together. What works on one guy might not work on another. Is it going to happen here? Probably not, Davis looks fairly marginal. But you can't let organizational reputation block you from making a deal.

Dodgers have a fine track record on pitcher development, but they ain't perfect (they've notably needed acquire relievers other ways at different points). Same with TB: they're great at player development, but the Twins still plucked Joe Ryan off them cheap and turned him up another notch to where he's a deserving all-star. Let's not give so much credit to another organization. (I mean, I was told repeatedly that Noah Miller was going to turn into a starting SS with the Dodgers and they were going to fix all of the damage we'd supposedly done to him. How's that working out? Because he still looks like the exact same all-glove no-hit guy he's always been.) It's a low wattage move, but normally I'd be ok with buying a guy off another team like this to see if there's something you can turn around. I'm less enthusiastic here, because it's taking up a 40-man slot, which makes it less likely the Twins will consider adding someone like Sabato and giving him a chance to see if he can do anything this season absent more significant changes at the deadline...which I just don't see happening. It's...fine. I'm ok with churning the back of the 40-man to try and uncover a diamond in the rough. This guy's had some injuries and control problems and is a relatively recent convert to relieving, and the Twins have a pretty good track record in converting failed starters into bullpen weapons, so I can understand the thinking. I'm just not sure it's the best use of the last slot on the 40-man right now.

I guess my concern on Long is trying to judge whether he's a) just a younger version of Sabato, and b) what that really means? Is he clearly better than Sabato? I don't know; he's got a better track record overall in pro ball, bit lesser in college, and advanced faster...but is he actually better or just younger? I feel like for hitters where there's a concern about what their contact rates will look like in MLB...it's just really hard to know if they can get it done until you actually see it. That last step is a treacherous one. I'd feel better if I had a better grasp on whether Sabato was more like Brent Rooker (needed time to figure it out) or just a guy having a good minor league season at 26.

I'd be stunned. There's almost nothing to suggest that the Twins will drop a veteran from the roster when there's any other semi-reasonable choice. While it might be the best option, when Keaschall comes back Kiersey is going to be the one who gets dropped, because he can get sent to AAA and the Twins won't lose an asset. Is this the most optimal move? Maybe (probably) not, but there's almost zero chance the Twins drop France from the roster when Keaschall comes back. Having been burned badly on not having enough depth before (a lost season when the OF depth got annihilated) and getting dinged on infield depth even this season, they're just not going to do it. Now, I'd argue the ability to grab someone like Clemens and make it work suggests that they need to be more aggressive about dropping non-performing veterans, but there's nothing that suggests the Twins staff sees it that way.

I think we will see more of Clemens at 1B and less of France, unless the Twins add a bat, in which case we might see zero of France. It's probably the right decision; France has been in a huge slump, Clemens has been fine defensively, and Clemens power production plays, even if he's missing a lot. France's bat to ball skills at least make him a reasonable pinch-hitting option late in a game so he has some utility on the bench. The smarter move might be to just move on from France, who hasn't been particularly good at the plate ( a good month is a .745 OPS, which isn't impressive) and doesn't hit LHP very well. But the Twins are deeply paranoid about losing veteran depth and seem unlikely to cut him, even with his contract to being guaranteed. I don't know if Sabato will be anything or not, and he's got a lot more failure on his resume than success, but he's been crunching LHP and seems like he could at least fill the small side of a platoon with Clemens. But I think the Twins are too gun-shy to do it. Frankly, I've been amazed they've been culling ABs from France; they seemed to adore him even when he was bad in May....

Most of the trade rumors on Buxton are coming from outside of MN, probably from people who want him playing for a team they cover regularly, rather than having to go to MN to watch him play.

Feels like unless the Twins collapse out the gate after the all-star break the only way a trade happens is if they can work a 3-way deal involving one of their top relievers. The teams looking to add a closer/elite set-up man aren't likely going to have a quality MLB bat available to move in the deal and if they're making a playoff push will want to deal in prospects. So maybe there's a 3-way deal that can be made where a team that's heading for the beach already gives up the bat in exchange for the playoff-bound team's prospects. But that's awfully complex and can fall apart quickly. But it's the sort of move that might be worth looking hard at if the Twins are above .500 at the deadline, and I'd certainly be able to support it. Team has ABs available at DH, 1B, or OF for a guy who can hit, especially if they really punish LHP. I suspect little will happen. Pohlads won't authorize more spending, Twins won't be looking to move a prime reliever for prospects, and I don't think the team will fall on its face out the gate hard enough where a fire sale is even that logical (except for the people who gave up on the team months ago, want to blow everything up, and have all the front office & coaching staff fired in favor of the Ghost of Tommy Lasorda or something)

Since we now know the Ishbia play was at least as much if not more about making a play for CWS, the more public aspects make more sense. I'm not that surprised there isn't a lot of detail out there; most billionaires don't like losing, so they're not going to want their names out there unless they have the deal locked up or close to it. And this way, 10 years from now one of them can leak to a friendly reporter that they were in the running to buy the team and would have done so much better than whatever other billionaire they want to take a shot at...

I wouldn't trust Rob Manfred as far as I could throw him (and I have a bad back, so I ain't getting far). MLB commissioners have generally been sleazebags who don't give two sh!ts for the fans, and Manfred is a shady tool of the owners as much as any commissioner has been since...Ueberroth, maybe? (that guy was a piece of work to be sure) That said, I hope he's not lying through his misbegotten teeth for once and a Twins sale is moving forward. While I don't share the contempt for the current front office & manager that many around here have, I do think the ownership situation has only harmed the team in the last couple of seasons, and their track record of poor business (outside of getting Target Field built largely on someone else's dime) decisions and inability to grow the fanbase over the past 20 years makes me ready to take on whatever risk we might find in new ownership. I don't see the fanbase growing under this ownership, or real financial gains for the club that would foster more investment in the on-field product (outside of jacking up ticket prices, maybe). I don't see any opportunity for bold moves occurring while ownership is seeking an exit. I don't see anything happening that wouldn't involve the Pohlad family improving their bottom line. Do I expect we'll sudden be in the land of milk & honey with new owners, with a big bump to the payroll, and everything suddenly working out right? Nah. But things under the Pohalds have ground to a halt, and after nearly 50 seasons I'm ready to roll the dice on someone new. Worked out ok with the Vikings, been ok for the Wild, so who knows. New owners should know exactly what they're getting into with the decline of the RSNs too. But this is a big market with the potential for a huge reach. Maybe the new owners could actually tap that, instead of consistently fumbling.

I think your final sentence is a little too broad. It may not be a position the organization prioritizes in the draft, but if it was one they didn't prioritize at all they never would have signed Vazquez. Developing MLB-quality catchers seems to be the hardest thing to do these days; finding one who can both be quality defensively and hit their weight ain't easy. Would the Twins be better off if they put a lot more draft capital into catching? Maybe, or maybe they just be looking at a lot more busts and people ripping them for wasting draft capital... I think they recognize it's a position of organizational need (it's why they took a flier on Cartaya, for example) but there's very little indication that they draft for need, and considering the development time it takes for most prospects (and the risk associated), I tend to agree. Even though I'd like to see more catching options coming up through the system (he said, hypocritcally).

A good weekend (even a great weekend) isn't enough to get me too excited about Ferrer yet. He's doing ok, but one big weekend isn't enough to make any kind of call on whether his prospect status has changed or anything. Raya's recent work is a little more notable. We're not talking about 1-2 good starts, we're looking at 4 straight, which may be an indicator that he's figured something out. I'll be interested to see where he sits in another month, but it's encouraging to see him going in the right direction. He's pitching in a league with a lot of offense, so these strong results are nice to see. I suspect that if he'd had this string of success in hand a few weeks ago he might have gotten tapped for the Adams role. With Zebby doing rehab starts, I suspect we won't see Raya up soon, but when Adams goes back down Raya might be positioned well to take the slot if needed again before Pablo gets back. DeBarge is interesting. The steal are impressive, but the reality is it's not that hard to run in A-ball: the pitchers aren't that focused on/skilled at holding runners on, and the catching is often a little all over the place too. That say, the volume is impressive and shows a tool in his bag. But his overall hitting has fallen off after a hot start, with a not so great June and a bad July. His speed and positional flexibility make him interesting, but he's got to be more consistent at the plate and be more of a threat at the plate or it won't matter if he's got a good eye at the plate because more advanced pitchers will overwhelm him and not be concerned enough about his ability to do damage on a "get over" pitch that those easy walks he gets from A-ball pitchers that can't find the zone dry up. One note that I'm very curious about, and it might just be a statistic fluke, but he's been great at home and trash on the road (.953 OPS vs .558). Maybe he's struggling a little to adjust to the travel schedule? Can't sleep on the road?

I think it's a little early to write off Festa, Matthews, and Morris as being "solid AAA" arms. Yes, top teams need high-end starters, but those are also hard to find. That said, there are more paths to getting one than just drafting the guys with the best stuff at the time of the draft and hoping.

This is the part of the draft where expecting to really know much about the players true prospects is beyond me. I'll be interested to see where these guys are in a year or so and see if anyone has broken out. I expect someone will, but I really don't have any idea who that will be right now? Interesting to grab a 6'11" pitcher. Twins do have some experience in working with tall guys, but this is a real outlier. Sure will be fun if her figures it our though!