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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Rojas has talent, but also has a fair amount of work to do. The multiple errors are going to make his ERA look better, but the reality is he still yielded the double and the dinger. Kind of feels like he's in AAA on scholarship a bit and looks more like a AA pitcher to me right now. Hopefully he has a strong finish to the season, but 2027 looks more likely than 2026 for his arrival in MLB. Culpepper is really having a great season, Pretty impressive for his first full professional season; he doesn't seem to be wearing down at all in the grind of a long season. You can see exactly why the Twins liked him so much in the draft and he should be looked at as a Top 100 prospect now...is he top 50? I'm sure there are evaluators who prefer 18=19 year old kids at low-A with theoretical higher ceilings, but I'm in on Culpepper. He looks nicely lined up to start next season in Saint Paul and potentially debut in 2026. Would love to know more about how Tait looked behind the plate. I can see why people are into his bat, and if he can stick at catcher, then he's a prospect to be excited about. Happy to have him in high A when he hasn't even turned 19 quite yet.
  2. jmlease1
    If Houston plays GG-quality defense at SS, has a triple slash of .280/.365/.425 (which is where you might land at 30 doubles, 6 triples, and 10 homers) and steals 20-25 bases he'll have a place. On the all-star team! I think you may be underrating how hard it is to do that...
  3. jmlease1
    Why would you remove all of the defensive utility Brooks Lee brings to the table (he's almost certainly going to be our starting SS until Culpepper is ready) by moving him to 1B, especially when he hasn't shown he can hit anywhere near well enough to play at positions that demand offense? While I'm sure Lee would field well at the position, moving him there makes zero sense. I don't know that we have a good 1B option right now that could lock down the position for 5+ seasons that's close. Wallner profiles ok there, but might not have the footwork and we have no idea if he could become adept at things like the scoops and sweep tags. I think a more likely contender would be Billy Amick, but he's still in A-ball and on the IL.
  4. jmlease1
    I'm comfortable downgrading the overall Varland trade because it seems so unnecessary (and while Rojas is a legit prospect, Roden is...not) but ranking it the worst of the deals with such a low grade gets caught up a little too much in the emotion of it and weights the "hometown boy" aspect too heavily for my tastes. I wouldn't have dealt Varland because he could be anchoring your bullpen not just next season but for 3-4 seasons at an affordable rate and hopefully we're not stuck in the basement for that full time with the supposed talent we have on this team and in the system. But the return isn't awful...just risky. I think we fans have been overrating Castro a bit as a player; his ability to play everywhere is probably no longer realistic (would you really want him at SS or CF?) and he's only putting up an OPS+ of 103 this season. Following seasons where he had an OPS+ of 101 and 105. He's not a bad player (and by all accounts is a great guy) but the all-star appearance was a fluke. He's a nice fit for a contender as a bench player, but he's become less impactful and that was reflected in his rental value. Stewart is complicated. I think his value is low because he simply can't be relied on to be healthy. The upside is great, but who would want to pencil him in as their closer or primary set-up man going forward? I probably wouldn't have traded him, and certainly not for Outman, so I'd rank this one much lower just because what did it do for us? But at the same time, I wouldn't be able to count on Stewart as a key bullpen guy for next season, even if he finishes the season healthy.
  5. jmlease1
    See, here's the thing: you simply can't run a team with the expectation that every trade you make you're going to "win". What you're really suggesting here is that unless the Twins screwed the other team they should always hang on to their players, even when selling. Because if the only way you'll deal a guy is to get the other team to overpay, they're not going to deal with you. Now, you can somewhat get away with that on guys like Duran, Jax, and Varland (we'll get to Stewart in a minute) who have team control left, but when you're flipping rentals, expecting to "win" the trade every time means you're likely to not move guys who are going to be gone after the season and get nothing for them. If you're selling because you're not a playoff team, why is that good or smart? Because it's more important for the fanbase to keep a well-liked player (like Castro)? Trades are still good when it's relatively equal value. Sometimes the market might demand that you get extra value for certain types of players at certain points during the year...but not always. And what the fans (or media) might deem as the "correct" value for a player might not be what the league has them at. Which is almost certainly where Stewart lands. Personally, I wouldn't have dealt him for a return like this because again, he's cheap and under team control and has the stuff to be a high-leverage reliever. But with his medicals, he also simply can't be counted on to be a cornerstone of your bullpen even if he finishes this season healthy. You have significant risk as a franchise when you deal MLB talent for prospects, no matter where they are rated. You're buying more lottery tickets and hoping that you're IDing the right guys and enough of them will pan out. If Tait becomes the starting catcher for the Twins in 2028 and is a good player, then the twins will have done well in that trade regardless of what Duran does for Philly. We won't know who (if anyone) "won" these deals for a while.
  6. jmlease1
    Look, I didn't like the Varland deal because he was showing that he could handle being a high-leverage reliever, he was cheap and under team control for a long time, and would fill a real team need after trading out so many other relievers. I'm concerned about the return, because while it's be reported that we got a "Triple A Starter", Rojas has only made 5 starts above A-ball, and never thrown more than 85 innings in a pro season, so he's likely much farther away from being a real option, and A-ball prospects (which is what Rojas really is IMHO) are much more suspects than prospects. Roden has done little to impress so far in MLB and there's a real possibility that he's a Quad-A player, despite some good minor league stats, especially at 25. I'm not concerned that he's a Saint Paul kid. That's a nice bonus, but should never stop a team from making the right business decisions for the club. I'm thrilled that Varland has been a good dude and treated fans well (always better to have guys who are positive, nice to the kids, respectful with fans over surly, angry, or absent players), but the off-field stuff can't trump on-field. Fan favorite? I doubt he was more popular than Duran, and no one is raising hell over Duran being dealt (even though he was developed by the Twins, spent the vast majority of his pro career in the organization, and was reportedly well-liked and treated people well. I've personally seen him be a class dude, for whatever that's worth) because of that. The problem with the Varland trade is the return might not make sense and seemed unnecessary, not that he was a nice hometown boy.
  7. jmlease1
    His college stadium is a bandbox and that was where the bulk of his homers were, so it's fair to be concerned that in the professional, wood-bat context he might struggle to show anywhere near the same kind of pop, and as we've seen: if you have no power potential it's hard to be a consistently effective player on offense. We'll see where he goes. I don't think he needs to turn into any kind of slugger to be successful (it helps a lot that he's a plus defender already), but it'll help him a lot if he can show that he can turn on a fat pitch and punish a pitcher who thinks he can get away with one. So far he's showing that he's got good contact skills and can get hits just fine, which is a fine start to his pro career.
  8. jmlease1
    It'll be interesting to see where the new acquisitions fall on the Twins prospect rankings, especially guys like Tait and Mendez. (I'm guessing no new list until the offseason?) Tait is still pretty raw, but you can see the talent. If he can hang at Cedar Rapids for the rest of the season, I'll be pretty happy. Bummer to see Billy Amick hit the IL again. He looked like he was finding his form again after missing all of May and wobbling a little when he came back. DeBarge has also come crashing back to earth after a fast start; the steals are fun, but his performance at the plate is a bit concerning. 2+ months of blah production isn't great. I remain intrigued by Mendez: is this a breakout season for him or a blip? He certainly seems to have impressive contact skills. Bradley has plenty of talent, nice to see him have a good start in AAA. With Festa, SWR, and Pablo still out, have to wonder if he might get tapped quickly for the rotation or if the Twins keep him in AAA to try and make sure that he's got his pitches where they want them to be.
  9. jmlease1
    Charlee Soto is on the injured list and has never pitched above A-ball; he will NOT be in the twins 'pen next season. Rojas has 5 outings above A ball; expecting him to be in the bullpen in 2026, especially when he's being developed as a starter, is also absurd. Maybe one of Abel or Bradley ends up in the bullpen, but since that trashes the value of the trade by a lot...seems unlikely So we still need 4 bullpen slots to get filled, and the only ones on your list here that might be considered for end-game status are Sands (who took a step back this season) and Prielipp (a rookie who hasn't pitched above AA yet). Needing 4 guys for the bullpen and 2 key adds to the lineup while keeping Larnach (and if you do, it's a pretty LH lineup again) makes this a stretch to begin with, and it's also premised on Roden actually being good (he's had 1 good game as a twin), GG being ready, and a small sample of Keaschall (who I love but come on) being who he might be. Even crazier is anticipating any spending at all until the team is sold. I'm happy to see the team scrapping and thrilled to see Keaschall put a charge in everyone, but I'm not saying anything about this team looks competitive after a good week, especially not until this team is sold.
  10. jmlease1
    I feel like they're doing better, guys are getting moved up a bit more aggressively...but based more on performance than scholarship? I know there are a lot of people questioning his power potential, and I feel like if there's some swing re-tooling that needs to happen, it might more sense to work on it in Ft. Myers while developing an off-season program for him. But I might be overrating the impact of the more expansive Ft. Myers facility/staff. Still happy to see Houston passing the Lemon Test so far.
  11. jmlease1
    will 15 games or so at Cedar Rapids tell us anything more? It ended up working out ok for Culpepper last year, but he struggled at the plate when he jumped to High A after only 4 games in Ft. Myers. (they're basically the same age) Not sure it would cause any harm either way except in the court of public opinion, but if he puts up an OPS of .650 in Cedar Rapids we'll be seeing meltdown city around here. I guess I wouldn't mind having more of the Twins instructional staff around him from the jump, since his bat is likely to need a little work... He's not young, but he's also not old: at 21 he's bang-on average for the FCL. I guess I just don't like a "4 good games? promote 'em!" on him.
  12. jmlease1
    Well, I've been bashing Roden ever since we acquired him, nice to see him have a good game. I'm still unenthusiastic, but hoping to be wrong. maybe I should start getting on someone else for being a quad-A player and see if they respond. I'm sure they're reading and it'll have an impact. 🙄 Keaschall sure is coming out flying. Got to love it. Maybe he puts a charge into the team the way Royce Lewis did when he was first coming up? (please stay healthier, Luke!) Offense absolutely did the job. Plenty of hits, plenty of walks, only hit into one DP and scored runs in 6 out of the 9 innings. Ohl got thumped around, which isn't great to see. Can't give up 3 dingers in less than 3 innings. He's got some things to figure out still, but there are flashes with him. Still...seems more like a long reliever than a realistic starter. But a guy who could give you 2-3 solid innings every 3-4 days has value in today's game, so we'll see how he does. Hatch did a nice job chewing up some innings, though and the first few without the big lead. Road series win against the division leaders. Sure, why not? :P
  13. jmlease1
    I think it's perfectly fine to let Houston get acclimated to professional baseball in Ft. Myers for the rest of the season. he can start in Cedar Rapids next year if he continues to look ok with the bat and try and set himself up for advancement to AA if his numbers support it, but the Twins have a more robust system in place at Ft. Myers which makes it a good place for him right now. (besides, Winokur & De Andrade are still in Cedar Rapids right now and need reps too)
  14. jmlease1
    Fair. Since I paid for my remaining tickets back in Feb, I'm still going to go. The hard part is going to be when I get asked if I want to buy for next season. Going to be very hard if the Pohlad Family is still grasping the ownership and sucking the life and fun out of the team. I don't blame anyone for wanting to take a break or tune out with this ownership. I'm praying for a sale sooner rather than later.
  15. jmlease1
    Larnach is a decent platoon bat who can hit RHP, but is mostly helpless against LHP. That's useful but limited. You drastically underestimate Wallner, who even in a down season is putting up an OPS+ of 119 and whose arm strength in RF has value. Notably, a 119 OPS+ would tie for 59th in MLB if Wallner had enough PA's to qualify; if he gets back to his career average of 132, it puts him at 29th. Wallner had a cold streak in June when the team needed him the most, and had an unfortunate injury this season, but he's a quality player.
  16. jmlease1
    Sure. I'm not really dissing Mendez: there's real potential there to become an MLB regular there. But he's not someone that will be ready to play in MLB at age 22 having never played above AA and not filling a premier defensive position. He seems like a classic guy to slide through the Rule 5 next year. It's just too hard to stash players on the 26-man roster when teams are only running 13 position players and have a guy that isn't going to contribute. Twins had Kiersey for quite a while in that last man role, but he at least could add defense and speed on the bases that someone like Mendez doesn't. And even then, hardly anyone here wanted Kiersey sitting on the roster like that. That's my point on Mendez. It will be hard for even non-competitive teams like Colorado to stash him for a full season.
  17. jmlease1
    I don't mind auditioning veteran cast-offs that have some upside for the bullpen this season to see if you can uncover the next Brock Stewart or similar pitchers (even finding the next Tonkin, the guy who came back to MLB at 33 for Atl would be useful) as we fill out the bullpen this year and guys are getting healthy in the minors. Maybe the Twins can help Kriske find something, and it's worth a try. But I'll keep my expectations appropriate. A lot of relievers are pretty fungible, but it's far from unusual for a guy to figure something out for a few seasons and be useful. The trick is not overpaying for those guys so that when they stop being effective you can move on. (the relief pitcher business is a little brutal) In conclusion, Eff the Pohlads and Sell the Team!
  18. jmlease1
    I'm not seeing too many 40-man problems for the Twins right now. Honestly, Roden worries me a bit: he's looked awful in MLB so far and while he's very controllable...what are we actually getting? I'm baffled by the evaluation that he's going to be a quality 4th OF right now, because he's shown nothing to suggest he's not a Quad-A player and I just don't know how much room you want to waste on those guys at the back of your 40-man. But at the end of the day, it's relatively small potatoes. Mendez looks interesting and has been off to a good start in AA, but doesn't look ready to hit in MLB yet and should be exposed. If he were an elite defensive OF it might be different; a team (especially a bad one looking for talent) might be willing to grab a guy like that, but Mendez needs to hit to be in MLB and it seems unlikely that he could stick on a MLB roster all season.
  19. jmlease1
    Feels like Christian Walker might have been part of a deal when the Astros were trying to get the Twins to eat half of Correa's salary. "Oh, you want us to eat money on this? How about you give us a contract back you don't want with a player that we might find useful" Once the Astros came down off their financial demands to a level the Pohlads found acceptable, Walker probably exited the Twins lexicon. It certainly would have looked better to add Walker's contract back and get a player that might actually be able to play instead of it being a pure salary dump with dead money on the books, but these are your Pohlad Twins It might be for the best; Clemens might actually be a better option at 1B than Walker, especially in the Age of Austerity we will be in until the team is sold. If his power production increase is for real and not just a small sample size/one-year fluke, he could be a solid and relatively cheap option for several seasons. In conclusion, Eff the Pohlads and Sell the Team!
  20. jmlease1
    Jenkins and Culpepper keep rolling at AA, and it's awfully nice to see. Prospects that bring hope; pair that with new ownership and maybe the fanbase won't entirely walk away for a generation. Marek Houston looks like he's passing the lemon test at Ft. Myers; he's got more K's than maybe you'd like, but he's also piling up the hits, so it's a perfectly fine start for a legit shortstop. Fedko is doing great so far at AAA; GG might need a little more adjustment (he's managed to have a higher BA than OBP so far, which isn't easy) but he's holding his own after another promotion. Would like to see the Twins clear out some of their Quad-A guys at Saint Paul to ensure that real prospects get enough playing time, but they might not get the assessment and sorting done for sure until the offseason. minor league reports are going to probably be a Twins highlight for the rest of the season. In conclusion, Eff the Pohlads and Sell the Team!
  21. jmlease1
    A good game for the team last night. Zebby wasn't efficient early; would like to see him finish off hitters better when he gets in those good pitcher's counts, rather than missing with an uncompetitive pitch or seeing guys foul off multiple pitches with two strikes. But he was effective and held the line well against a pretty good lineup. With our bullpen...limited, it was good to see the offense put up runs early and give the team a nice lead to work with. Keaschall hasn't missed a beat at the plate and it was great to see him blast his first big league homer. Very happy to see the Twins working a pile of walks and getting runners on. Larnach is on a nice run right now and setting himself up a bit for next year...which will likely be somewhere else if this ownership stick around. In conclusion, Eff the Pohlads and Sell the Team!
  22. jmlease1
    You made this about Rocco. Arraez never played a day in MLB before he was called up in May of 2019, so he debuted under Baldelli. If this is about whether Rocco and the MLB staff can "develop" position players, you have to count Arraez. Wallner's bWAR per 162 is 3.3. He's got a career OPS+ in MLB of 133 to date. That's a legit starter. It just is. Lewis' biggest problem has been injury, which isn't something I would hold the manager responsible for. I'd say Jeffers still counts...care to find a new criteria to exclude him too? There's been plenty of failure, either due to guys simply being unable to make the leap or injury: Kirilloff, Miranda, Julien, Gordon, and if you want to argue Larnach I don't think it's unfair; he looks like a bench/platoon bat not a starter. Too soon to say on Lee. They haven't done enough to produce enough of the kind of guys to replace the Kepler/Polanco/Rosario type position players as those guys aged out/got too expensive for what they were. But it's not zero, and probably has a lot more to do with the minor league development staff, front office talent evaluation, injuries, and the player's real talent than the MLB manager.
  23. jmlease1
    Roden has shown me nothing to suggest that he should be looked at as anything other than a throw-in. He's 25 and has looked dreadful at the plate in MLB, completely overmatched. Great, he's hit very well in AAA, but we've been hearing quite a bit that the gap between AAA and MLB is very high right now, and we've been seeing in with players like Gasper, who crushes the International League and gets crushed by MLB. This deal is a big swing on Rojas, and if this front office wasn't already cooked if the team gets sold it's the kind of move that gets people fired because they sold off a reliever who has already shown he can be an impact guy on the back end of a bullpen (which is more important than being a "closer", really) that was cheap with many more season of team control for a pitching prospect with exactly 5 starts above A-ball. Who has never thrown more than 85 innings in a professional season (and seems highly unlikely to pass that this season either) I hated this move when they made it, and I think I still hate it. Right now, he looks more likely to end up as a reliever in MLB to me, so if we gave up a known MLB relief quantity for a down the road maybe reliever...UGH. I don't care about the hometown boy bit; we overrate that kind of extra credit; it's not like it was going to draw substantially more people to the ballpark. A cute story and I'm happy for it, but it doesn't make Varland untradeable. What should have made him untradeable was this kind of return for someone who filled a serious need and was cheap as hell and going to be ours for many more seasons. I hope I'm very wrong on Rojas. I hope he was undervalued and will be hitting top prospect rankings and everyone can sell me on him being a front of the rotation guy. But right now, he's a suspect. Yes, there's real upside, but to me he looks like an A-ball lottery ticket, not the kind of return you should get for a player like Varland, who has already been very damn good as a reliever this season. Someone should have said no for the Twins.
  24. jmlease1
    Wallner. (As noted elsewhere) Arraez. Jeffers. Royce Lewis (yes, he's been injured and inconsistent, but his bWAR per 162 games is 3.2) I'm not going to pretend the Twins development of starting quality MLB position players has been sufficient under this regime; it clearly hasn't. But it's not zero, either. Miranda looks like he's in trouble; I suspect the back injury may have something to do with it. If he's not able to get the hard contact he needs with his free swinging ways, he's simply not going to get it done, and he's been finding it harder to even cover the plate like he used to. He's always been a bat-first player, so if he's not hitting he doesn't add much of anything. Martin is going to get an opportunity. I think he would have gotten it sooner this season if not for the hamstring injury. If his OF defense improves (he should be better than what he's shown with his speed) and he can get on base, he might still make it. Hopefully the Twins will be inclined to let him run if/when he gets on base and see what it looks like for him attacking the bases. Will he hit enough? Will he show he can be more than just a slap-hitter? He's going to get about 2 months to prove it. He's still got a decent floor with his speed and ability to get on base if he can show out better on defense. Julien is the guy who is really on the fence. He needs to be able to drive the ball and make enough contact to prove he's not a Quad-A guy. It's certainly possible that 2023 was a mirage held up by an utterly unsustainable BABIP, but it's also possible that he can get back to stroking line drives again and elevating the ball effectively, which would also allow his patience to play better. We'll see. He should get regular time to complete the season and find out. But there's little room for him if he's not hitting. He hasn't been great since his return, unfortunately. Martin seems like the most likely to stick because he's got more tools & utility. Could fill the Castro role if he's getting on base, which would be fine.
  25. jmlease1
    Be realistic. If the Pohlads keep the team, they're not going to eat Rocco's contract no matter how bad you think he is, because everything they're doing right now is about maximizing their own profit. If the Pohlads sell the team, the new ownership is almost certainly going to clean house, starting with the manager. beyond that, the criticism of Rocco in this game thread for putting in a crappy reliever when he got nothing else to work with is damn silly thinking.
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