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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    SD was trying to dump Arraez's salary at the start of this season and found no takers. He responded by having a 2nd consecutive poor season, and now you want to give him a long-term deal for more money? Sure, he'd help the offense a little with a single almost every game, but he has almost no pop in his bat, little speed, doesn't walk, and he's barely a competent 1B. Paying him $15M per season on a 3-year deal looks like a massive overpay for a player with terrible knees. But hey, he was a popular former Twin that this front office traded away, so of course we should bring him back. 🙄 At least Clemens would be cheap and can do more than just DH/1B. (still not a great solution) Arraez is looking at deals more like what Solano used to get (adjusted for inflation): 1 year $5M. It'll be interesting to see if pride keeps him from taking one, but I don't see many teams itching to give him a multi-year deal.
  2. jmlease1
    The other part of the formula (which still works today, really) is having several of your regulars all have career/healthy seasons at the same time, while your stars have healthy & typical years. But that's luck more than a plan. ('87: Gagne, Straker, Berenguer all have career-type seasons and Brunansky & Blyleven re-finds their form for one last season, while Viola, Puckett, and Hrbek carry their share of the load as top guys) ('91: Tapani, Pagliarulo, Leius, Davis, Willis and Erickson all have career-type seasons with Morris coming in and rookie Knoblauch coming in with Aguilera, Mack, Puckett, Hrbek, and Gagne doing what's expected) You could see it a little with the Twins in 2023, when Julien, Miranda, and Wallner were all good at the same time, or the Bomba Squad (career seasons from Garver, Kepler, Sano, Odorizzi) When you don't have an extra $50-100M to spend on proven veterans to fill out your squad, you're hoping that several of your good but not great players get hot and stay healthy at the same time. Part of what really makes an all-star player a star is being able to do it year in and year out.
  3. jmlease1
    Interesting! Makes me wonder how many other ailments we see professional athletes deal with have a similar diagnosis structure? It certainly would explain the "why did it take them so long to figure this out?!?" aspect with some injury/treatment plans. Really hope this works out well for Festa. This is a significant condition that in more serious versions has ended promising careers, and it's always a shame for a player to have a promising career get wiped out by injury. I've been reluctant to consider Festa a rotation or even bullpen option for 2026 with this diagnosis, even with the revelation that it wasn't one of the more severe variants. This does make me look at it differently.
  4. jmlease1
    I would say that Joe Pohlad had absolutely no clue that he has zero credibility with Twins fans. It's possible that "short-term pain" is just a reference to the fire sale of 2025 and how this team fell apart the last couple of seasons. But why should any Twins fan believe that? It's much more likely that it refers to further payroll cuts for 2026 and losing more veteran players like Lopez, Ryan, and/or Jeffers. They've given us no reason to believe otherwise, and seem to think we should all just be happy sheep, grateful that the Pohlads allow us to have a team to watch at all. That comes out meaner that maybe intended; as absurdly rich people the current generations of the Pohald family don't seem like bad people...but they're staggeringly tone-deaf, out of touch, and quite poor at running a professional baseball team. Joe Pohlad seems to think that a few public statements, a friendly interview or two, and firing the manager is all it will take to bring fans around. Joe Pohlad, once again, is very very wrong.
  5. jmlease1
    You think the Twins will let him get exposed to the Rule 5? A bit risky, that. There's enough chaff to be cleared that I suspect he gets protected. Regardless, I don't think he's going to be on the Opening Day roster. He should be learning 1B in AAA and proving that he can hit enough to be worth calling up. He's also probably not a fit to partner with LH Kody Clemens, though Mendez did hit LHP just fine in 2025 (in a small sample). I think moving him to 1B now is a good idea. But Mendez responded very well to his first turn in AA and played well in both Philly & MN. Seems like little reason to send him back to Wichita, especially if he plays well in the AFL. But seems like little chance he'll start the season in MLB.
  6. jmlease1
    Berrios wouldn't have stabilized anything in 2022; he was bad. Would he have been useful in 2023 & 2024? Sure, but then we wouldn't have had Pablo Lopez because to give Berrios the contract he demanded would have meant there wouldn't have been money for Lopez. In this case it wasn't a pure salary dump, because they actually reinvested the resources, and SWR has done a lot already to replace Berrios' production in the last 2 seasons. And if we hadn't given Berrios the deal, he would have been gone by 2023 and we wouldn't have Berrios or SWR. You seem bound and determined not to acknowledge SWR's contributions. It's weird.
  7. jmlease1
    When someone's FIP goes up but their ERA goes down, while their WHIP stays about the same, their K/9 goes down, etc...did they get better or did they get a little luckier (or play in front of better defense)? If a player's BABIP jumps by 90 pts to a career high by 60 pts and far far above the league average...did they get better or get a little luckier? Especially over smaller sample sizes. No one is saying that Jax or Bader aren't good players, but Jax was always due some regression to his mean and Bader is getting some breaks with his bat. (he's got a .415 batting average on balls in play in Philly. His career BABIP is .305. It's the same thing with Keaschall, where we all knew he wasn't going to find every hole on the field forever. doesn't mean Keaschall is a bad player either. Just not likely to hit .380)
  8. jmlease1
    Are they mostly playing better? Jax: looks a bit luckier, not any better. Duran: not all that different, still awesome. Bader: a little luckier at the plate, maybe a bit less in the field, but pretty close as a player Varland: substantially worse so far, but in a fairly small sample Stewart: was not good, immediately injured Correa: hitting better, defense better away from SS (position change might be most impactful) France: looks like the same backup quality player he's been all season Paddack: worse for sure, partly because the Twins beat him up Coulombe: quite bad for Texas, but also a small sample Dobnak: still in the minors, but pitching better than he did in Saint Paul My scorecard would put that at: 2 better (Correa and Dobnak), 4 about the same (Jax, Duran, Bader, France), and 4 worse (Varland, Stewart, Paddack, Coulombe). Even if you could convince me that Jax, Duran, & Bader are "better" now that they've been dealt...that's still only half.
  9. jmlease1
    I'm definitely of the opinion that if the roster for 2026 has Outman as the 4th OF and Clemens as the starting 1B, there will not be a quick turnaround. Because if that's something they consider acceptable, then I have little faith their player evaluation and development will rebuild the bullpen quickly, promote the right rookies, develop keaschall properly, land an acceptable backup catcher, get Royce back on track as a hitter, develop Brooks Lee into an impactful player, and get enough polish on guys like Bradley, Abel, Matthews, Festa, Raya, Preilipp to have a quality rotation. Goodness there's a lot of things that need doing. It's far from impossible that these things could occur, but the more questions and variables you have and fewer resources you can access the less likely you are to have success.
  10. jmlease1
    seriously. I think most people expect the Twins to struggle next season. I will say it does seem to be split into three camps around here: People who think the Pohlads will keep chopping payroll or at best staying flat, and think that Lopez and/or Ryan will be dealt in the offseason, removing even more players that can be counted on, making it unlikely for a turnaround even if some guys step forward People who don't think most of the roster are good enough players to be in MLB and think that the team will never win with the current front office Those who think a combination of both. None are necessarily wrong, really. A new manager will be expected to do something noticeably different from the last 2 seasons. Whether that's realistic without substantial roster turnover and/or investment...YMMV. But from a fan standpoint, it wouldn't necessarily have to be a fast turnaround to a winning season again to meet expectations. For one season, "fixing" one thing people complain about a lot might meet it. Who knows what ownership/front office expects.
  11. jmlease1
    Why is it a bad trade, when Berrios hasn't been much better than SWR over the past 2 seasons, gets paid a lot more, and the Twins also got Austin Martin who looks like a viable option for LF/4th OF next season? And who would you rather be paying $43M to over the next 2 seasons, Berrios or Lopez? You're underrating SWR. Trade hasn't exactly worked out for Toronto; they've won fewer playoff series than the Twins since acquiring Berrios.
  12. jmlease1
    That's a way to look at it. But let's look at those moves: Sold high on Arraez, who has been healthy the last 2 seasons but as a 1B/DH has been barely a league average hitter with no defensive value. Even with the injury, Pablo has been better. Sold high on Berrios, who has never been as good for Toronto as he was for MN. Do you think the Blue Jays feel great about paying him nearly $25M per season in '27 & '28? SWR is 7 years younger and has been as good if not better the last 2 seasons...and Austin Martin may have figured it out enough to be a quality LF Sold high on old, free agent-be Cruz and got an eventual all-star back in Joe Ryan. Elite move by any standard Paddack didn't work out great, but Rogers didn't deserve his all-star nod, hasn't been close to be considered for one since. Rooker was such a sure thing that he got dumped by SD and KC before landing in Oakland and figuring it out. Calling Rogers an inherited all-star is technically true, but misleading. Notably, you skipped past Sonny Gray, who was acquired for Chase Petty: Petty still has time to figure it out, but he's gotten rocked in MLB and AAA so far and maybe already be getting pegged for a transition to the bullpen. I'd say Gray worked out just fine. But this is how Cleveland and Tampa both do it: they draft, they trade, and they don't sign expensive free agents to start. As noted above: we're not throwing money at Dylan Bundy types any longer. It hasn't been a rousing success (need more consistency from guys like Matthews, Abel, Bradley, Festa, etc) but we're in much better shape for starting pitching that we were in the early days of the Falvey regime, and far better than Ryan II or Smith. Pipeline was probably a bad term to use, because people have tagged it as being all about drafting and developing pitching internally only. But it's unquestionably improved. The lineup side is much much shakier (injuries have played significant parts of it, but there's also high profile busts like Cavaco and Sabato, with far fewer late-round successes to point to) and much more damning
  13. jmlease1
    Yeah, because basically any other scenario and Joe Pohlad is never in charge of a professional sports team again in his life. Worked out well for him. Fans? Not so effing much.
  14. jmlease1
    I think Rocco was cooked either way. If a sale had been completed before the end of the season, allowing new ownership to come in, they would have likely tossed out Falvey and Rocco to put in their own picks. New owners rarely wait out another season to see if they like a guy like that, and after a bummer of a season (again) they would have cleaned house. They certainly could have moved quickly enough unless MLB and/or the Pohlads dragged things out well into the new year. I think it's fair to say that Rocco was both scapegoated a little by everyone; I think people around here blame him a little too much for example, but also the front office needed someone public to put some blame on, since ownership wasn't changing and the front office ain't firing itself. It's also more than fair to say that Rocco hadn't earned another season after missing the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons, even if crappy ownership gutted the roster and the front office didn't dumpster-dive their way into fixing it. It's fair to put at least some blame on young players not developing/adapting at the MLB level on the MLB staff, and that's headed by Rocco. They changed some coaches and it didn't make much difference, next step is changing the manager. Felt like Rocco was cooked either way when the team tanked it out of the all-star break and sent the club into fire sale. I don't hate on the manager like some do, but I still think it's the right decision.
  15. jmlease1
    There's also this disconnect on the "fundamentals" aspect where it sure seems like a lot of people around here think that the manager will spend large amounts of their time outside of games doing individual & team drill work with players on fielding (both infield & outfield), baserunning, and bunting. How many teams and managers allocate their time this way? And it sure seems like no matter what the next guys says about "fundamentals" people here won't be satisfied unless they a) see the manager hitting fungos early and often, and 2) get to witness the manager chewing someone out for screwing up on the bases or something...
  16. jmlease1
    A 64 year old dude whose most notable accomplishment as a manager was how much more the Dodgers won after he left, and who hasn't managed in 3 seasons? Pass.
  17. jmlease1
    I think we'll find out a little about whether the Twins have any real commitment to change with the managerial hire. If they pick someone from inside the organization (especially the MLB staff) then it's a sign that they're not all that interested in change and fired Rocco primarily as a sop to the fanbase. (it's not a guarantee that the next manager won't change things up, but it won't be a good sign for any substantive fundamental change for how they operate) They almost certainly will interview some internal candidates, and they should; if there's literally no one in the organization worthy of an interview, then they should be firing a lot more people really fast in the minor league ranks too and cleaning house on all the MLB coaches. (this would please some around here I'm sure, but would likely be a foolish overreaction that would throw out the good with the bad and offend some of the players to boot) But that's not where I would hope they'd have their focus. They need some fresh voices and new ideas, so I'd look for rising people from other organizations. Grabbing an ex-Twin with no managerial experience seems like a desperation play to win casual fans over, without necessarily improving the product. And why would you want it if you're someone like Morneau? He's got a very nice gig right now and a large family. I can't believe anyone is suggesting TK. This ain't Bud Grant coming back to stabilize things after being retired for literally 1 season; TK hasn't managed in decades, he's 75, and his health isn't the greatest. Crazy idea, just crazy.
  18. jmlease1
    I will take all that action. It will absolutely, positively, never-ever happen in the next 2 years, minimum. There's just no planet where anyone (and count Provus on this) would hire on the fired manager to do analysis on the air. You'd instantly piss off the new manager and their staff, probably upset any holdover players who would worry about whether they might get sold out, and infuriate the fanbase. Good grief, no one wants the old boss around.
  19. jmlease1
    It won't be hard for someone who wants to be a MLB manager to talk themselves into the upside and ignore the downside. You pass on one of these jobs and the window might close faster than you might think.
  20. jmlease1
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc...
  21. jmlease1
    Missed the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons, hard to really argue that he should have stayed. I never disliked Rocco all that much, but it sure seemed like the team needed a change. Will this fix all the problems people have with this team? Doubtful. Some people around here will immediately hate the next manager, because they'll almost certainly still apply analytics to game decisions, lineups, etc and for some, that's clearly not allowed. I think the most likely differentiation is they could hire someone who is more hands on with both the players and their own and less of a CEO model...but I suspect that won't be sufficient for some unless they get to see the manager showing someone how to steal a base or lay down a bunt personally. They could also go with someone who is a little more hierarchical/disciplinarian, but there's zero chance that it will actually be a Dick Williams/Billy Martin style screamer. But none of it will matter unless the players play better and stay healthy.
  22. jmlease1
    true. at the same time, it doesn't look like Kody Clemens will ever get on base like Ed Julien. As a platoon bat who can play multiple positions, I'm ok with Clemens making the 2026 roster. As a starter at 1B or really any position, I doubt it's going to go all that well. He's super streaky, unplayable against LHP, and makes a lot of outs. But he could be effective spelling RH bats at 2B, 1B, and in the OF. Julien has not significantly improved his position with the team, and it's shame. He's made more contact (good!) but can't find his power stroke (bad!) and won't draw walks like he used to with opposing teams not fearing him much at the plate (also bad). Since he adds nothing in the field (he might be fine at 1B with more experience, but with that as the best defensive position...) he needs to hit and he simply hasn't. Since teams have a book on Julien now he's looking like a Quad-A player, which definitely happens to guys who can't adjust when the league responds to them. (James Outman is sadly nodding from somewhere) He should be guaranteed nothing for next season.
  23. jmlease1
    Because what happens between the Twins and their investors is something the other owners don't care about. Clearing debt from a franchise so they know it's fiscally viable and could command a higher sell-price? That they do care about. The larger teams will complain about the revenue sharing aspect (they complain about any revenue sharing, so eff them), but there's plenty of teams on the other end of the spectrum that will look at the Twins and see a team doing what they would also do...and one they'll be able to beat for the next few years, while also using them as an example in their next round of CBA negotiations/threats. The other owners aren't giving up anything by allowing the Twins to sell part of their stake in the team, and the revenue-sharing money the Twins get is what the Twins were going to get, really. They might start to care if the Twins run bottom 5 payrolls for 5 straight seasons or something, but this doesn't impact the other owners much at all. And they really don't want to set any precedents that could open up a team's books any more than they have to.
  24. jmlease1
    A very 2025 Twins end to the season. I just hope it's the end of the Genesis Cabrera Experience in MN. (He's been on 6 teams in the past 3 seasons and been acceptable for exactly one of them. Proof of the old saw that all you need is to be LH with a pulse to get a job in an MLB bullpen I guess) SWR did quite well, and overall had another good season for the Twins. He's certainly viable as a back of the rotation guy and had a good september for a team in free-fall. 36 K's in 27 IP in September is nice to see, and he pitched some real gems against good teams this season. I've always liked him and if he can maintain his velocity and finish off more hitters consistently with that split-change he's got a bright future. The lineup struggles already against LHP and without Buxton and Keaschall in there it was probably always going to be a long day, but maybe it helped solidify that Outman should not be back at least? It's one thing to give someone like Roden (who has options remaining) another look next season and another thing to bring back Outman who does not, and additionally looked worse than advertised in the field, while looking lost at the plate more often than not. Nice to have Jeffers finish the season with 3 base knocks? Hope that wasn't his swan song too, but I have many fears about the Cheap Pohlads further tearing down the roster and no one should trust them at all with anything at this point. There needs to be some substantive and significant changes made to this franchise (roster, development, business, PR, etc) and it feels like the only real change that will happen is to keep slashing payroll.
  25. jmlease1
    This. If you go crazy low for too long the MLBPA will squawk and we saw from the A's actually spending some money last offseason that it will have results. But Twins could get away with it easily for 1 season after having much more middle of the pack roster costs for several years in a row, and then we're in lockout mode anyways with the CBA coming up. But god, it's like perfectly designed to kill baseball in the state. Baseball has tons of competition here for professional sports (Vikings, Wild, Wolves, Lynx, Loons...) and loads of things for people to do in the summer. Tanking attendance and fan interest going into a lockout with billionaire owners who are arrogant and stupid enough to think there won't be any significant effects of the sport disappearing seems...bad. All viciously cutthroat business decisions that have nothing to do with the wonderful game of baseball. Gross. I hope Provus is wrong. I want Byron Buxton to retire a Twin and be one of those awesome one-club players. I certainly don't want to see him a freakin' Atlanta uniform! That'd be almost as bad as seeing him in a Yankees jersey. 🤮
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