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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Those first couple of innings...he really doesn't look right. He's never been this hittable, he's struggling to get K's, it's easily his worst season in MLB. Feels like he'd be heading to the IL for 2 weeks rest, some hip rehab, and mechanical tweaks if Pablo and Zebby weren't already hurt. Seeing Spenser Steer (who has been bad this season) look like an all-star against him tonight really sold the idea that he's not right and it's significant. Oof. It's a depressing run right now. Best part of the game was Hawk's take down of the punks who made threats against Ober and talked about how he'd had to face things like that in his career. I thought he was really good in the booth last night: smart and passionate, shared some personal experiences, and did a really good job talking about things like pitch sequencing. Thought it was Hawkins at his best; when he's cooking like that he really adds a lot to a broadcast, and he worked very well with Provus (who even did a bit of Uecker!). But I hate it when the commentary is better than the Twins play...
  2. jmlease1
    I think this is the issue. If you don't have a position where you can be roughly average defensively, than you really need to hit to get a chip, a chair, and chance. Gasper is a guy who will give it his best shot anywhere, but no one seems to have any confidence on him as a catcher, he's not good at 1B, and makes Ed Julien look smooth and confident at 2B. Haven't seen him try 3B, and while I'm sure he'd be game, I'm not sure it would go well. And for all that people around here crap on Baldelli and the front office for "not caring" about defense...they definitely value it up the middle, which is probably why they're uninterested in replacing some Vazquez time behind the plate with Gasper. Now, would I still give Gasper a chance? Over Bride, why not? He's not adding anything and is eminently replaceable. With Lee and Castro we have a couple of guys who can play 3B until Lewis is back, and Clemens can play there if needed. Let Gasper get some DH time, maybe a little 1B, but actually PLAY him. I'm not saying hand him a starting job, but give him a start a couple times a week and more game time than just a couple of pinch hit jobs and see whether there might be something there. Give Clemens a night or two off, now that his hot streak is over. Bride was an emergency pickup at a time the left side of the infield was really thin. He hasn't done anything, so why not try and add some offense? Because a guy like Bride the definition of replacement level: you can get that guy off the street. Gasper might be nothing more than a Quad-A guy (hell, he probably is) who never figures it out against MLB pitching, but there's very little to lose here. Gasper in his 17 appearances only got 9 starts and played a full game 6 times. Only got 5 games with at least 4 PA's. Hard to really know what you have in such a small sample and inconsistent PT. Not sure we learn anything by watching him destroy pitching in Saint Paul either.
  3. jmlease1
    He's obviously not going to sustain a .500 BABIP for the rest of the season. You can argue that pitchers are going to start giving him more things off the plate and he'll start chasing and watch his BA tumble...or you can say they'll stop throwing him pitches in the zone and he'll start taking more walks. Do you want to see Brooks Lee struggle or succeed, because that might inform your answer. It's pretty normal for players on a tear to not be taking a bunch of walks, because they are swinging the bat more because they're getting good results. Virtuous cycle. We're not seeing Lee chase, so as long as he's taking good hacks at balls in zone, sure he's going to drop back some, but he's not going to fall off the planet. We'll see. With K's being so prevalent in MLB these days, a high contact player may have some room to work. He's also shown enough pop in his bat that pitchers are going to be reluctant to groove one in there. Bringing up Arraez is a little tiresome, because of how it sparks the same tired arguments about how good or not good he is, but there is some usefulness in the comp here, because it highlights what could make Brooks Lee an effective player even without a ton of bat speed and maybe without taking tons of walks (I suspect Lee will take more walks and get fewer hits, but it'll even out somewhat). But Lee is also a fine defensive player at multiple positions, so even if he's not hitting over .300 and sustaining an OPS over .900 he can still be a very useful and effective player manning multiple spots in the infield and running a slash line like .275/.315/.400. I think there might be a little more in the tank for Lee as a hitter than that, which is why is nice to see him swinging the bat so well right now and getting good results.
  4. jmlease1
    Yeah, I used to bitch about guys crowding the plate wearing body armor, but with so many pitchers throwing upper 90's or better and the control not always being there...wear whatever you like. multiple guys breaking their arm on a HPB this season? Yikes. Happy for GG, glad he's keeping the roll going. If he keeps hitting, he might get a cup of coffee in AAA this season. Him being healthy is making all the difference this season, and I think we're seeing the player the Twins were hoping he could be when they traded for him. It's impressive to see him do this at AA; the pitching is more advanced and a lot of guys struggle in their first exposure. He's not having any trouble at all. Interesting to see DeBarge get tossed, but how to handle it when you think the ump is screwing you is an important part of development too. Sounds like he's got a little edge to him, which I'm fine with.
  5. jmlease1
    I think that's right, but Hall has got to get his walks down. He's simply not going to be able to keep advancing if he's walking this many guys. The WHIP is way too high. Very good outing, because the name of the game is to keep runs off the board while going deep into the game, but he's not going to do it often walking 4 guys in a stint.
  6. jmlease1
    GG continuing to rake at AA; if he can add some additional xbhs to his allotment he's really going to be a nice-looking hitter. Pretty impressive that against more advanced pitching, in his first taste of AA he's got 9 BBs and only 10 Ks so far at Wichita. Still a long ways to go for him, but you can see why the Twins liked him as a prospect. He's healthy this season and it's made a real difference. Congrats to Sabato on his promotion. It's been a long road for him and he's had a lot of down moments where it looked like he might be El Busto. Maybe he still won't make it to MLB, but for a while it looked like he was only getting promotions on scholarship and this one he earned. Be interesting to see what he can do in AAA and whether he's really figured something out. The power potential was always there, and this season he's been making enough contact to have it play. Maybe he'll hit well enough in AAA to get an invite to spring training next season and become a potential option for a 40-man spot. You just never know. Culpepper looks ready to move up to AA. Hope they promote him soon, would like to see what he can do there. Not sure he's got much left to prove at Cedar Rapids. He's shown he can handle it, let's test him some more.
  7. jmlease1
    well, it was a strength and it did have depth (YMMV on what constitutes "plenty"). The starting pitching so far this season has been really good, pretty much what we reasonably could have expected (not perfect; SWR wasn't great and was properly sent down, but the rest did well and we saw some promising things from Festa and Zebby). This is why the Twins have been so reluctant to move on from marginal veterans in the last few years: if a bunch of injuries hit at the same position at the same time, it can get ugly fast. We were in a pretty good position to whether losing Pablo, but losing one of your top 2 starters is a huge blow to every team in MLB. Seriously, who in MLB isn't going to be impacted by losing the guy who is arguably your ace? When Pablo goes down at the same time that you'd sent down your 5th starter for performance issues and the guy you'd called up goes on the IL, and one of your other top 3 rotation guys may have an injury as well...yeah, I think the depth is going to get depleted. Not because it was "supposed" depth, but because it was a lot of injuries all at once.
  8. jmlease1
    Weird take considering Pablo wasn't pitching. But Pablo is younger and has been at least as good as Gray over the past season and a half, while costing less, and letting Gray go also got us a prospect. Next season Gray is going to cost StL $35M while Pablo will cost $21M. Baldelli supposedly "pissing him off" is nonsense for why Gray went elsewhere: he signed with StL because they offered him a boatload of money, 3+ years on the contract, and it's close to where he's from. Not because Baldelli offended him and somehow drove him away. (btw, I guarantee you that Gray has been mad about getting pulled from a start in StL this season. He's ALWAYS mad when he has to come out of a game. But apparently, it's only in MN that it's so offensive that it drove him away...) BTW, Bailey Ober was at least as good as Sonny Gray last season.
  9. jmlease1
    Oof. Awful timing for Ober to put up an utter stinker, and surprising to see Sands fail to throw some water on the fire as he'd been quite good this season. Just a dreadful day of pitching all around. Ober does seem to have this in him, though: when he struggles it turns into a 17 car pileup. He really implodes. It's extra frustrating because Texas has been pretty rotten offensively so far this season. So giving up 16 runs twice in 3 games is pretty gross. I'm not going to beat up the offense too much for this one, though they certainly could have been better. But when your starter gives up 4 homers, it's going to be a bad day. Time to cleanse this series from the cache and start over.
  10. jmlease1
    Wichita may have gotten clobbered, but at least GG keeps doing his thing at the plate. Would like to see a bit more pop out of his bat, but he's been handling the move up to AA pretty well, I'd say. The question is, who is the next guy to get a move up from Cedar Rapids? Culpepper, Amick, DeBarge, Diaw, and De Andrade are all worthy. I'd bet on Culpepper and DeBarge, I think. Amick's on the IL, Diaw hasn't gotten a ton of ABs in Cedar Rapids yet, and De Andrade has cooled off a little. But hopefully they move up a couple more guys soon. 3 doubleheaders today. that'll be interesting!
  11. jmlease1
    I'm bummed that it didn't work out with Alcala, a player I've been high on before. But he just hasn't been able to figure it out and he's getting killed by everyone right now. He used to at least be death on righties, but despite the superior velocity, no one seems to fear him and the walks are back up to unacceptable levels. He's also been one of those guys that frequently makes the mental mistakes on which bag to cover, etc and it clearly drove the coaches nuts. At least we got something for him? And frankly, it's good to move on from him. He wasn't trusted (for good reason), he wasn't pitching well, and we need to have every player on the roster usable. He will have a good stretch again, I suspect. It might not be for Boston. But he's just a fungible reliever that can give you a good season and then be a mess then next. The poster child for not giving a middle reliever a multi-year deal. The talent is there, but lack of a consistent off-speed offering to lefties, shaky command and control, and mental lapses means it's time to move along.
  12. jmlease1
    A very nice win by the Twins and a good bounce back after an ugly loss. I wasn't thrilled seeing festa hang a change like that in the second, but it was the 3rd that made me wonder if he was going to fall apart. The defense picked him up (something we might not have said very often in recent years!) and he did a good job settling in. I was happy to see him get a chance to go 6 and not get yanked early, but I suspect the 4 run lead instead of a 1 run lead had a lot more to do with it. Buxton was great last night. Goodness, he crushed that homer! Oh, my. He obliterated that one! But he really had a complete game last night; he looks healthy and locked in. Love it. He's one of the most exciting players I've ever seen when he's healthy and it's so much fun watching him play. I'm guessing Bruce Bochy was losing his mind internally when Leiter walked Vazquez. Nice to see that happen to someone else for a change, lol. Brooks Lee looking much more comfortable at the plate the last couple of weeks, and is having a very nice stretch. Hopefully he's figured some things out and will be a regular contributor, especially with Clemens looking pretty rough over the same period.
  13. jmlease1
    I really like these articles and hate always seeming to need another one being written.
  14. jmlease1
    I'm guessing they had a conversation about it, but the dollars might not have lined up; it's one thing to give Paddack $2.5M to rehab and $7.5M for a healthy season and another to go $5.5M and $16.5M, which is what Texas gave him. It's working out just fine for Texas, but that $16.5M was a fairly big risk for a pitcher with shoulder issues, which are often worse than elbow problems to come back from. I'm betting the total cost was looked at as too much risk. I think that's fair? Couldn't have worked out better for Mahle: he's having one of his best seasons as a pro going into free agency at 31. If he stays healthy, he'll be in line for a big contract (3-4 years at $20M AAV? Maybe more?)
  15. jmlease1
    I was fine with the trade at the time, and it just didn't work out. The thought process made a lot of sense, especially because our younger pitchers in the minors simply weren't ready yet and we needed to buy some additional time to try and graduate more guys internally. His arm just ended up being unable to hold up during the time when the Twins would have been expected to have him. Heck, he was actually pretty good for us in 2023 before he went down for good. While the Twins gave up a fairly good haul in assets at the time, I don't know that it's hurt us all that much: Steer had one good season, and we were able to replace his production just fine that year. He was just ok last season and not good this year...and he's been the best of the prospects we gave up. CES (who I admittedly thought would be the best of the trio) has done nothing to date in MLB: struggles to stay healthy, and has been exposed as a hitter since showing a little promise as a rookie, and doesn't add any defensive value. Maybe he's figured something out with this recent spate of homers...or maybe he just ran into a couple, because he's been awful before that. Hajjar looks like he's out of baseball? The Mahle trade was a loss, because he got hurt. But it wasn't because he was bad and couldn't pitch. Hope he has a rotten day against us, but I wish that for every pitcher who we play.
  16. jmlease1
    I hope Julien's 4-4 day with a homer is a sign of things to come. I'm not ready to give up on him (though I know many on this site would rather have him fired out of a cannon back to Quebec than ever play for the Twins MLB team again...) but he needs to keep making consistent contact and get back to hitting with authority. There have to be some xbhs in the mix for him to be a threat again. He's clearly still got the control of the strike zone where he's able to pull walks without trouble, but he can't be a slappy singles hitter only. Will be curious if he can get it figured out over the next 1-2 months and be an option again. He's had a solid month now at AAA...except for the power production. Hope the homer was a sign of more to come. He's been better than Miranda, who is still swinging at everything, it seems. Where these guys are sitting in July will be very interesting.
  17. jmlease1
    I really didn't think I'd be asking this question, but: when does Sabato get promoted to AAA? He's finally having the kind of season where he's earning a promotion, rather than getting there somewhat (or entirely) on scholarship. And in his 3rd turn at AA, what else are we going to learn about him there? Would like to see him moved up to see if this is for real, if he's found an approach that works for him, and see if there's an opportunity to keep going. He just turned 26, make it a happy birthday in Saint Paul. Kaelen Culpepper is doing great. Can't wait to see him in AA. I don't think it'll be long now.
  18. jmlease1
    Eh. I still think i'd rather have Buxton up. The super contact guy is very nice in extra innings when your team is up in the bottom of the 10th and just needs 1 run to get the win, but holy cow that's a limited role. (it's notable that as much love as people give Arraez, he hasn't been particularly good this season, for all the expected reasons: when he's not hitting .320, he's not giving you much of anything else. No defense, no speed, little power, few walks.)
  19. jmlease1
    He's a fun story, and I'm rooting for the guy. But I wouldn't expect to see him soon. He's coming off a significant surgery, and has only played 5 games in AAA. He hasn't shown the power stroke that helped carry him up from A-ball to AAA last season (only 3 xbh so far this season, and none in AAA) and isn't commanding the strike zone quite as well yet. coming off a knee injury, it shouldn't be a surprise that he might need a while to start trusting the knee and getting his legs all the way back under him at the plate. But he also needs to show that last season wasn't a small sample size fluke. It seems unlikely that they'll dump Bride for Eeles because he's had a good week coming off injury at AAA. With Royce looking better at the plate, what kind of role would there really be for him? Bride is barely playing now that everyone is healthy, not really sure what the point would even be to dump Bride and drop Eeles on this roster right now: they're unlikely to play him, and even pinch-running seems a little unlikely immediately coming off a knee injury. Eeles probably need another month in AAA to show he's healthy, hitting, and trusts his knee enough to hit for some power. The problem for him is by the time he's shown it, Keaschall might be ready again, and I think they'll trust Keaschall to come back again over Eeles. I won't be surprised if injuries do give him an opportunity at some point this season, and he looks like a real choice to be a utility guy for next season, especially if Castro is allowed to move on. But the injury came at a bad time for him this year: he probably would have gotten a shot (and either Bride or Clemens never comes over) earlier in the year if he'd been healthy and hitting during the stretch when we ran out of left-side infielders. But he missed that window, and it might be a while before it opens up again. He's a great story, and I really respect the way he's fought his way into AAA. But he's still got more hurdles to clear.
  20. jmlease1
    A good win, stopped the bleeding nicely. Got worried when France got picked off like that; felt like one of those moments where the momentum could shift and a wobbling pitcher got bailed out. Glad to see it didn't matter, but whoof, that was poor awareness by France. Great production from the bottom half of the lineup. Nice to see so many guys collecting hits and walks from the 6-9 slots. Royce is starting to look like he's finally coming around. It's only been a week...but it's been a very good week. He'll need to show this isn't a fluke and not fall back into the hole, but he has looked good at the plate again, grinding out some ABs and getting some hits. Nice to see Ryan grind one out when he was just a bit off. He's becoming one of those guys that you just feel like he's going to figure things out and get it done. Much like Pablo, his floor is pretty high these days, and the ceiling is awfully high as well. We'll need him to keep doing this with Zebby going down too,
  21. jmlease1
    I don't get this kind of take. He's in his first full year as a professional and is thriving at high A and in line for a promotion to AA by July. Why would there even be any conversation about him being a "failed" pick, whether he's hitting this well or not? People are too willing to write-off prospects if they don't succeed immediately or get bumped a level as soon as they have a couple of good months.
  22. jmlease1
    He's the guy we passed on to take Walker Jenkins.
  23. jmlease1
    There's literally no one saying Boggs sucked as a player. Modern analytics looks at Wade Boggs and tells people that he was actually underrated in his time: Boggs was a worthy MVP candidate 5 times and never won one, and only finished in the top 5 once. Citing Wade Boggs as an argument against analytics is positively silly: the analytics LOVE Boggs. Kaelen Culpepper probably ain't Wade Boggs, though (awesome as that would be) because Boggs is a first ballot Hall of Famer and those don't come around too often. But not because anyone in the Twins organization is saying "don't play like Wade Boggs".
  24. jmlease1
    Congrats to Schobel for his first AAA hit. And congrats to Sabato, who is easily having his best pro season. Maybe he's a late developer and has figured something out, but credit to him for continuing to work and grind, after damn near everyone (including me) had written him off as a bust. He still might never make MLB, but he's at least got a chance now.
  25. jmlease1
    You don't have to be a slugger, but you also can't be an empty singles hitter, either. Boggs in his prime was also a doubles machine and hit more than 40 of them in 7 straight seasons, and his first 10 seasons had a SLG% under .400 exactly never. Boggs also took walks like crazy: led the league in OBP 6 times and finished his career with an OBP of .415. Hitting for average is great, but you can't swing at everything and not take your walks. You also have to show you can do some damage if the pitcher hangs one. doesn't have to always be a homer, but it shouldn't always just be slapping another single. That said, Wade Boggs is a first-ballot Hall of Famer for a reason! But I'm hoping that Culpepper can stick at SS. He's looking like a quality defender there, even if it's not elite, and matched with his bat could be a real asset if Correa is looking to move off SS in the next 3-4 seasons. I'm guessing the same people who have been predicting a move to 3B or 2B were the same ones saying Brooks Lee wouldn't play SS in MLB too... Culpepper is doing everything right so far: making plenty of contact, getting on base, and showing good pop in his bat, while also looking comfortable in the field. I suspect he'll get a promotion to AA in the next month unless he picks up another knock or a massive slump.
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