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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Considering power is one of the easier things to add to a player's hitting profile and bat to ball skills are one of the harder ones, I see the logic in making this pick, especially since Houston is seen as someone who will be a quality SS when most of the time the evaluators are predicting every college SS that's drafted will "have to move off the position". Seeing how much the Twins have struggled to find a consistent SS over the past 30 years and have rarely developed one internally that can stick for more than a couple of seasons, I'm not going to complain about having a top glove in the system with some hitting skills. We'll see if he turns out to be more than Noah Miller (who is a fine glove and can't hit) in a couple of seasons; if he can develop some doubles pop then he'll become more exciting. Floor is high, ceiling is questionable? His development will be interesting. Overall, I have faith in the Twins draft process, so I'm not going to bag on Houston. Let's see what he's got.
  2. jmlease1
    Yes, because getting injured is a mark of character. I'm sure if he just cared more he wouldn't get hurt. 🙄 #sarcasm
  3. jmlease1
    He's doing great this season, but Sabato has a lot more failure on his resume than success, so the Twins are unlikely to jump him to MLB, add him to the 40-man, and drop him into a playoff race based on a small sample in AA & AAA. his walks have slipped a little and he's not hitting RHP particularly well (he is annihilating LHP, which which will be intriguing). Julien is much more likely to get a recall since he's already on the 40-man. There's also the basic reality that this Twins regime simply does not let go of depth for nothing, and they definitely do not flip on a veteran after a bad month. France has enough track record in MLB that if the Twins cut him, he'll be gone from the organization and they simply are uninterested in losing assets like that when a vet has a bad run. It's also why some of us are unhappy any time they sign a marginal veteran in the offseason, because we know the leash will be very very long.
  4. jmlease1
    Fun game today. Buxton was awesome, and I love seeing it. He's one of the most exciting baseball player's I've watched and I'm so glad he's having a healthy season and kicking butt. Interesting pitching performance today; Sands was quite good as the opener and seems to be finding his groove again. He'd been a little inconsistent this season and they'd kind of banished him from the higher leverage roles, but it looks like he's getting himself back on track. Adams...looks like a long man. He did better than his first outing, but against a much weaker lineup. But he did what we needed today, which was get 3-4 solid innings, and he put up 4 without giving up too much. And we finished it off without needed any of the higher leverage arms. I'll take that when the offense steps up big. And the offense got it done for sure. Nice to see the ball flying out of the yard and some crooked numbers going up in the box score. Won the series, let's go get a sweep! To quote the immortal Eppy Calvin "Nuke" Laloush: "I looooove winning, man! You know? Like, it beats losing?!?"
  5. jmlease1
    Yes, Cal was a freak of nature. I'm sorry, but this is seriously weird. Gehrig & Ripken's streaks are both massive outliers in MLB history. 3rd place is Everett Scott (ever heard of him? I presume not) which ended in 1925 at 1307. When only 2 guys in history have ever cleared 2000 consecutive games and both are more than 50% higher than 3rd place, I think it's safe to say that neither record has anything to do with "MLB having changed". While one of the best abilities is still availability (tm Tony Kornheiser) you're missing a lot if you only judge durability based on consecutive games played. And comping anyone's durability to Ripken's is kind of meaningless. It's like ripping a guy who hits 30 hrs for not hitting 70.
  6. jmlease1
    Can we just swap Kiersey for Martin, please? Martin's looking all the way back from his injury and while I don't expect him to set the world on fire at the plate, he's almost certainly going to be a better option than Kiersey, and gives the team even more positional flexibility, while still providing speed off the bench. Stop waiting for Keaschall.
  7. jmlease1
    I think the NBA and NFL have warped people's ideas about what you should do with a season. It's much easier to do a quick turnaround in either sport than is likely/possible in baseball, which should disincentivize tanking. Beyond that, baseball margins are close enough (and anything can happen in a short series) that any time you have a chance to get in the playoffs, you should take it. Looking at the bust rate of prospects even in very smart and talented front offices and the challenges in surround great talent with enough support (when you're not one of the super high payroll teams, at least) only reinforces the idea that you should try and compete if you can make the damn playoffs. All of this is to say, I'm enjoying seeing the team win. I hope they keep it up, no matter who the opposition is, and would much rather have the team keep winning and push for a playoff berth than quit on the season and have a fire sale. Skenes is pretty awesome. Beating him was great. Larnach is a real threat against RHP. Hope Correa is ok. Sounds like it isn't too serious, but it makes you nervous.
  8. jmlease1
    Duran is the right kind of guy to move if you can get a team to make an overpay because of the inflated value teams place on the title of "closer". He's awesome, and I don't want him to leave, but he's starting to get more expensive (you have to figure he's looking at an arbitration figure of at least $8M next season, so even a multi-year, team-friendly-ish deal would be looking at at 2/$20M or 3/$35M). And we do have options in-house to fill that role (Jax, Varland, or Stewart could all get there, and Sands is someone that might be an option too. Most likely Jax or Varland, though). Are we in the position of selling? I don't really know. (I'm less eager than some to simply throw the season away, because baseball is still the "a chip, a chair, and a chance" sport) Are the Jays the right team to deal with? I really don't know. I'd be more interested in exploring some of this if the team had already been sold, or I was certain they'd be sold by the time the off-season starts. I simply don't want the Pohlads having any decision-making power right now, even if they generally leave the baseball moves to the front office.
  9. jmlease1
    Unless the team was unwilling to give the kind of contract he signed with Toronto and he was clear that was the only possible way he would ever consider re-signing with the team. We don't know and we'll probably never know, but it seems likely that was a real factor. The Berrios deal shows the risk of dealing a proven starting pitcher for prospects in that you very well might not get the same value back. But at the same time, Berrios has underwhelmed in Toronto. He was awful in his first full season (2022) and until the first half of this season has looked more like a solid 3rd or 4th starter than someone who you were excited to start a playoff game. In fact, SWR hasn't been that far below Berrios' production the last 1 1/2 seasons. Since Berrios left MN, Bailey Ober has been a better pitcher than Berrios, even when you include the rotten 2025 Ober is having. While I think the Twins would have liked to have seen more from Austin Martin (though he's looking like he may have figured some things out), I'm not sure they have much regret in dealing Berrios, considering what SWR has done, what Martin might still do, and the money they were then able to then spend on Pablo. I think they would have significantly more regret in trading Ryan, who is having a better season this year than Berrios has ever had in his entire career.
  10. jmlease1
    Yeah...no. I get that we're short on starters right now because Lopez, Matthews, Ober, and Morris are injured. It really sucks that once again our injury problems have hit on the same position at the same time (a few years ago it was the OF), but that's not a reason to make a desperation/panic move that would have little chance of success and a large chance of failure. Yes, Jax is a different and better pitch now than when he flunked out as a starter...but it doesn't mean that he's well-equipped now to transition back to the role and succeed. Unless you think he can still go max effort while trying to pitch 5-6 innings (let's be kind and call this overly optimistic) then he's almost certainly going to lose some velocity on his fastball, and that gain he's made has been important to his success in the bullpen. Maybe he can do better because his other offerings are better now, but it's a big maybe. And the fact that he'd have to go down to AAA to get stretched out only makes it more likely we'd lose more games while trying to fill the starting pitching hole...which would be close to getting filled again by the time Jax is ready to start again. Basically, this scheme seems like one designed to help tank this season, make the team sellers, and basically give up. (which the most likely result is a windfall for the hopefully outgoing ownership group as they dump payroll; it's highly unlikely that it will result in increased prospects for 2026) I suppose it'll also guarantee the front office gets fired and a housecleaning occurs under the new ownership, which certainly seems like the primary goal for many around here anyways...
  11. jmlease1
    Blegh. Lifeless offense and a bad outing by Paddack doomed this one pretty early. Don't think i'll be watching the replay when I get off work, though hearing cranky Terry Ryan reading scouting reports would be fun. (I'm assuming Ryan was grouchy and a crank, as I've never seen him be any other way in public.)
  12. jmlease1
    And nice to see Hrbek stop by, even if he didn't get on the mic. The trio seemed genuinely delighted to see him. Only a quick view, but he looked pretty good post-stroke, and I hope he's recovering well.
  13. jmlease1
    Kaelen & Gabby just keep rolling in Wichita! Really fun to see. It's going to be hard to keep them from getting a look in AAA this season at this rate, and I love seeing prospects push for advancement by being awesome. Nice day from Billy Amick; glad to see he's looking healthy again and maybe finding a groove. he was really hot out the gate before going down with an injury, and it's taken him a while to get back on the field and get it going again, but he's off to a nice start in July. It'll be interesting to see if he can stick at 3B, but I think it's smart to have him splitting time at 1B, especially with all the infield talent we still have a Cedar Rapids. De Andrade is having a solid bounce back season after a bit of a lost year with injuries. I suspect we'd be talking about him a bit more if it wasn't for guys like Culpepper and DeBarge getting so much (deserved) attention. He's playing some SS again, and he's shown solid pop in his bat. But he's been inconsistent at the plate: great april, not so good may. great june, wobbled in july so far. I think we're seeing why he didn't get an early promotion, and he's still very young; he may be more experienced as a professional, but he's a full year younger than Culpepper.
  14. jmlease1
    Very nice win. I got pretty nervous in the 4th with Festa who looked like he was going to throw the lead away, but while he wobbled he didn't implode. Might be an important step for him. He had some very nice moments and if he can keep from getting too wild you can see exactly why the Twins continue to have faith in him. Bullpen was excellent. Really liked how efficient they were in finishing off the game too. This is why many of us thought we could have a top-flight bullpen this season, and if Sands and Topa get locked in as well (and Sands has looked good since being part of the June Swoon) then it's an awfully deep and good bullpen even if the last spot has been filler. Be great if Correa and Wallner get hot, and they looked good tonight. Jeffers has been on a nice run too. But have to hope this doesn't linger for Buxton (thrilled nothing is broken, was really worried about that!) because while Bader can replace his defense he simply doesn't have Buck's upside on offense. Bader's been a nice pickup with some big hits, but he's a streaky offensive player who can look awful quickly at the plate. Go for the sweep! Cubs are a good team, so this has been a very nice series. Holding down the team leading MLB in scoring is a nice feat for the pitching after a rotten June. Keep it up! Pablo and Zebby are coming...
  15. jmlease1
    Well deserved. I'm a big fan of Ryan, nice to see him get the recognition he's earned.
  16. jmlease1
    I'd be furious, even if we got a big haul...because the haul is almost certainly going to be prospects that are 2-4 years away. Which means plenty of time for things to go sideways and no guarantees. I want Ryan extended, not traded. I also always feel like a lot of the teams they speculate on being interested in a player like Ryan expect to overhype their prospects they send back and get our best players for a bag of magic beans. I also feel like with the ownership situation in flux that making a Ryan move is...difficult. And frankly, it's one you make if you're really tearing things down, so Duran and/or Jax would need to go to, along with a bunch of other guys. Does that make sense when we don't know who owns the club next season
  17. jmlease1
    If they were destroying his confidence, wouldn't he be getting worse, not better? Which is more likely to wreck his confidence, leaving after pitching 5 excellent innings and not getting to throw in the 6th (when we have a quality bullpen) or getting rocked and coming away with no chance for the win? Let's get him some additional early run support, I guarantee you he'll get more chances at pitching the third time through the order. I would have preferred SWR went out for the 6th against the Cubs, but facing an excellent lineup with a slim lead, while having a rested bullpen and needing every win it can find right now, I can understand why they're not making developmental moves with a young starting pitcher and playing straight up for the win.
  18. jmlease1
    When Keaschall gets back it'll be a lot easier to only have 1 of Larnach/Wallner/Clemens in the lineup I think against LH starters. Hopefully that helps a bit. Larnach is doing a very nice job against RHP and since that's the more common sight, he can certainly add to the lineup. No, he's not a great defender, but he's also not a butcher. But unfortunately he looks like a guy who really needs to stay in a platoon role. I wouldn't yank him all the time against the first LH reliever you see in the 5th or 6th inning, but he also shouldn't expect to bat against a LH reliever in a close and late situation, or start often against a LHP unless they're trying an opener. Larnach has been decent. Right now we need a little more than that, though.
  19. jmlease1
    I was intrigued by Severino, but his lack of a defensive position (he apparently was bad everywhere they tried him) and increasingly poor performances at the plate in AAA doomed him. Poor contact rates, and increasingly looked like a guess hitter I think. That last step is a really big one. I'm impressed with how well Sabato continues to do in AAA. He hasn't missed a beat since moving up and has kept his K-rate very manageable. It's taken him quite a while, but maybe he's figured it out? We always knew he had massive power potential, and he had quality patience even when he was struggling to hit, but he seems to have figured out his contact issues, which was clearly holding him back. Wonder how his defense at 1B is going? Kaelen and GG are doing everything you could ask for at their age and point in development. I'll be very interested to see what the national guys think of GG when they do their prospect updates and see if any of them have substantially changed their thinking on him. Bohorquez did exactly what you'd hope he'd do coming off a strong outing: repeating it! Happy to see him over 60% on his strike %. If he's starting to master things to the point where he can consistently throw strikes, then he's going to be very interesting. That's 3 good outings out of 4 now (I like that they're doing Game Score for minor league pitchers; it's nice shorthand for evaluating a starter's outing) and while they're clearly keeping him on a 60-75 pitch count/5 inning max right now that seems appropriate for a guy who can get wild and might have a 25 pitch inning. He's certainly got the stuff to be intriguing; I'd say Ft. Myers is a good place for him. He's still pretty inexperienced, but he's showing real improvement right now.
  20. jmlease1
    Great news, hope he heads out on that rehab assignment soon! Keeping my fingers crossed for no setbacks. I really like Zebby, and I think he's got a chance to be a rotation stalwart. Rotten timing on his injury, but what can you do? BTW, this is a great thing about having the AAA affiliate in Saint Paul: not too hard to go check out a guy on a rehab!
  21. jmlease1
    I think ownership is going to keep things status quo until they sell the team (while normally I would think they might push some contract dumps, they won't do anything that gives ammo to a prospective buyer saying "this team ain't worth what you're asking, especially after you dumped the roster!") and that's not great for this trade deadline. Until the team is sold, things are going to be a bit directionless. Outside of Keaschall, I don't know how much impact any of the options on this list will have the opportunity to make, absent more injuries in MLB. Keaschall is likely to take Kiersey's spot (thank god), but Rodriguez isn't going to get a chance unless someone gets hurt...and he stays healthy himself. And frankly, Martin is much more likely to get a call-up right now. Raya might get a shot if the Twins can't patch it up until Zebby comes back, but I wouldn't expect him to stick right now and he wobbled enough early on that I'm sure the team wants to see more consistency from him before bringing him into MLB. Prielipp certainly has the stuff to pitch in MLB in the bullpen right now (and is likely better than Wentz from the jump) but I just don't see this front office going that direction absent another injury to Coulombe and Funderburk looking unacceptable. The lineup is basically healthy right now, the bullpen is healthy, and I'm not seeing the Twins excited about jumping Raya into the rotation, which is the only area where health is an issue right now. Absent some moves at the deadline I just don't see a lot of roster space. If they sell off Castro (which is complicated: he's likely gone next season under this ownership, but has good value right now. he'll have plenty of suitors, but is also one of the Twins better performing hitters right now.) it opens up the door for someone to come up and play...but it still seems more likely they'd drop Martin in. Moving France would open up time, but they seem to love France, hate losing veteran depth, and he costs little and brings back less. I think Gleeman & Bonnes are right: until the team is sold, we're caught in limbo, and it sucks unless the team goes on another big winning streak.
  22. jmlease1
    Please. every time he has a bad start you get people around here declaring that he's never going to be a quality MLB starter. Fortunately, Twins management is taking a longer view with him.
  23. jmlease1
    Which is worse for his career earning prospects, coming out after pitching 5 sterling innings or getting rocked for 3-4 runs in the 6th? His agent is probably thrilled the team is protecting him against going a 3rd time through the opponent batting order; he can sell hope without evidence to another team (or an arbiter) easier than poor results. I felt like SWR deserved to get a shot at the 6th, but the team is in such a marginal position that they can't afford developmental decisions at the MLB level like they were out of contention in late august or something. If they'd had a few more early runs, SWR gets the chance. I don't like the decision particularly, but I understand it. SWR pitched very well against a stacked lineup; Cubs are leading baseball in runs per game and sent out a lineup with 8 guys with an OPS above league average. While I disagreed with the decision to not let SWR get the 6th after controlling his pitch count so effectively and pitching so well, I'd rather spend my energy on praise for SWR than looks for reasons to bash the manager...especially when the decision worked out. The long lulls the offense gets into after looking like they're going to maybe take it to a starter early are frustrating. And even stacking the lineup, they're not hitting LHP very well. Fortunately, the Cubs threw a RHP out there and the team jumped him. Not complaining about the 8th inning explosion, just wish it was earlier.
  24. jmlease1
    well, every time people write SWR off, he seems to figure something out, make an adjustment, find some additional velocity, etc. So it would not surprise me if he dumps the change up and adapts a split to be a useful offspeed option. We sure do need it to work right now with Pablo & Zebby still on the mend.
  25. jmlease1
    Eeles is on the prospect hot sheet because people love his story and were constantly asking about him while he was out. He's a fun story, and if some of the power production he showed last season and in his rehab assignments comes back at AAA then he's a legit option to become a utility guy in MLB. I'm guessing that a lot of what we're seeing with the power outage in AAA this season is a result of the recovery from surgery (his good SLG in the rehab assignments is more about small sample size) not really being complete yet, but it could also be that pitchers have figured him out. We'll see where he is in a month or so. AAA is the right place for him, and as noted: Bride arrived because Keaschall, Lewis, Martin, Miranda were all hurt at the same time...and Eeles was still recovering from surgery. Do I think we held onto Bride too long? Yep, but Eeles was never an option to keeping Bride off the roster. All I really want for Walker Jenkins is good health for the rest of the season. I have nothing but confidence that his talent will play up if he's healthy. He sure looks healthy right now, and while I would be happy to see more power start showing, I'm loving that strikeout to walk ratio. His control of the strike zone at this age is really impressive, and it's a skill that will serve him well as the power develops. Bohorquez is an interesting prospect. We'll see if he can consistently find the plate for a while, because the stuff is certainly impressive. But he's been very wild, so I'm going to need to see more starts like this where he finds the zone and dominates the opposition. But not bad for age 20.
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