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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    This is a dreadful professional baseball ownership. This is a tone-deaf front office (taking a page from ownership). This is a manager who may be losing the locker room (losing and having the roster implode will do that).
  2. jmlease1
    Decent start by Bradley. He may have flopped out the gate, but he's looked ok after that. Starting to look like a guy who could chew up a lot of innings in the back of the rotation. Real utility there with Festa looking like he might be out for 2026 and other starters struggling to get deep in games. The offense needs some real work, and while I think there's some minor league reinforcements that could make a difference next season, they real could use some quality vets to support it. Sadly, I suspect they will be dumpster diving again with my predicted payroll being under $90M. I'm done with the Kody Clemens experiment. I appreciate that he can play several positions acceptably on defense and his willingness to do whatever, but he simply can hit enough. He's selling out for homers, and simply doesn't make enough contact or have enough plate discipline to be that kind of hitter. He's utterly helpless against LHP and expecting any real improvement from him at the plate at 29 seems nuts. Even as a bench player, I'm just not interested. Gasper certainly doesn't look like he should be part of the team next season either, though I'm happy to see the Twins have him catch and get regular ABs to settle the issue now. Let's not have any illusions and act like he just needs more of a chance. Games like this are why I'm still concerned that Royce hasn't found his way on a better path yet. A good week followed by a bad week isn't going to work. I remain unconvinced with Outman, but he did have a good game.
  3. jmlease1
    While defense at 2B for the Twins lately has been on the decline, this article needs better historical research. 2B hasn't been the home of light-hitting defensive players for quite some time, and historically it was a hitters position for quite a long time before the run of it being ok to send out a speedy no-hit guy who couldn't actually play SS to 2B. I'd say it's notable that Cleveland decided to trade 3-time gold glove 2B Gimenez for an A-ball prospect and salary relief...and that the big contract extension that Toronto gave him looks pretty concerning. It's not a trend that started this decade to try and stretch hitters to 2B in MLB even if it's been a Twins trend. (Alfonso Soriano, anyone?) We'll see what Keaschall's defense looks like after he's had more time and reps in the spot and is further removed from TJ and a busted arm. He's certainly got the quickness to get to enough balls, and it's too soon to give up on his glove (having seen it with more than a few infielders over the years, we know that a guy can go from looking like he's got a frying pan out there instead of a glove to being more than solid). But it also wasn't really that long ago in the greater scheme of things that the Twins had Brian Dozier manning 2B. The real issue for the Twins is they haven't found a guy that they could plug in at 2B every day who could produce on both sides of the ball.
  4. jmlease1
    It's why it was probably a stupid trade: Stewart had more value to the Twins than he had on the trade market. we emptied out all of our high-leverage relievers and in exchange for Stewart we got a failed prospect who is getting older and needs a lot of fixing to stick in MLB. The expectation of getting more for Stewart was probably wrong, but it's still a bad trade in that they lost value by trading away a player that was more valuable to them for one who is less valuable to everyone.
  5. jmlease1
    I don't think you're wrong necessarily, but I just have trouble imagining this franchise spending $15M total in FA next season...and that's if they deal Pablo (which I hope they don't do). I think Falvey is going to get handed a payroll budget of $75-80M, because the Pohlads suck. I've been disappointed in Roden's defense so far; he was advertised as being able to play CF and he looks stretched there to me, but he should be a good defender in LF. Fedko has played 2 games in CF for the Saints, and the one I saw he looked...meh. Think there's a reason he's played more 1B than CF in AAA, but he should still be fine in the corners. I could see Fedko getting a chance for some 1B time in MN, but not Roden.
  6. jmlease1
    well, there's also a problem lumping in Roden & Outman as if they should have the same weight as Abel, Rojas, Tait, and Bradley. Outman was a flip for an oft-injured reliever that simply can't be counted on to be healthy enough to be counted on. Roden was basically the Ty France part of the deal with Toronto, wouldn't you say? Bradley was awful in his Twins debut, but intriguing in his next 2. Seems too early to judge him. When he's getting swing & miss and getting K's, he's effective. He's had dominant performances this season in MLB (and not just against bad teams) and shown he can pitch effectively into the 6th inning and beyond. We'll see if he's worth Jax. (who has...struggled since going to TB, including an implosion last week where he faced 3 hitters and gave up a hit and 2 walks recording zero outs) Abel has looked pretty good in AAA for the Twins; sure he got his brains kicked in for his first 2 MLB appearances with us, but there's a lot to like with his arm talent. Rojas is the one where I think Falvey tried too hard to sell the idea of a guy being close to MLB ready: he should have gone to AA to continue his development and not worried about getting him to MLB with all haste. Whiff of desperation on that one when the Varland deal was seen so negatively by so many. No one acquired has looked ready to contribute to any kind of quick turnaround, but writing off Bradley and Abel this fast seems foolish. Tait, of course, is doing just fine at High A; he has things to work on, but looks like he can stick at catcher so far and his shown real tools, while holding his own at Cedar Rapids while just barely turning 19. But this is part of why I don't want to see Jenkins up with the MLB club right now. Everything is so negative (not unreasonably with these idiot owners) that if Jenkins doesn't pull a Keaschall people will be arguing for him to get dumped. Just imagine if he went 1-8 with 3 K's and overthrows a base...
  7. jmlease1
    chicken and the egg, I guess? you never hear any complaint about "culture" when the team is winning, and you hear a lot of them when a team stinks. And one of the reasons you hear so many comments about "culture" when the team is bad is it's easy to throw that term around without calling anyone out specifically. I'm sure Joe Ryan misses Sonny Gray: he pitched well for the Twins and helped us win a bunch of games, including one the best seasons this team has had (sadly) in a long time. But Sonny Gray's bulldog attitude and feistiness and so on means nothing if he's 2018 Sonny Gray. No one is talking about that guy setting the bar and instilling "culture", they're talking about finding him an exit. But from a personality and preparation standpoint, I bet Gray hasn't changed all that much since he left Oakland. Is Sonny Gray making a difference from a culture standpoint in StL? He hasn't made their rotten starting pitching better through his awesome cultureness. They're going to miss the playoffs for the 3rd straight season and have gotten worse since Gray got there. Twins could have been just fine moving on from Sonny Gray in 2024, but the Pohlads picked that as the time to cut payroll. That's how we ended up with Manny Margot, hoping that Farmer still had something left in the tank, relying on Thielbar/Okert/Funderburk as LHP in the bullpen, taking a flier on the corpse of Jay Jackson, and having no options if any of the rookies had a sophomore slump/collapse. They didn't do anything with the Sonny Gray money except put it towards ownership's bottom line. That's much more about ownership than Sonny Gray.
  8. jmlease1
    it's a fun question! I think there's some belief in the Twins organization that Rodriguez is actually the better CF at this point, but that neither are expected to make it their long-term position? The possibilities are really exciting to have an OF of Buxton flanked by Rodriguez in LF and Jenkins in right with Martin as an option off the bench (especially as a RH bat) and Wallner in more of a DH role that occasionally plays RF. I just hope the Twins don't play service time games with Jenkins in particular, but cheap-ass dumb Pohlad ownership... Morris has been on a good run to close the season, and I'm high on him as a future starter. Can he stay healthy and be an impact arm? I'm leaning towards Preilipp and Raya moving to the bullpen to keep them healthy and give the bullpen some non-waiver wire, high impact arms (Adams looks like he could have success there too). Tait has done fine this season; you can see the tools, and while the overall numbers don't jump off the page, doing it in his age 18 season (he just barely turned 19) in High A should change the calculus. He'll need to bring the OBP up, but no complaints for a guy adjusting to High A at a young age and dealing with a trade and a new organization. I suspect he'll be looked at favorably for his projectability. Curious to know more about Sam Armstrong. he seems to have settled in after a shaky start and done some good work in Wichita, but I really don't know much about his pitches or what his ceiling might be. Be great if we ended up plucking a guy who stagnated in another system and we helped him find another gear, but he hasn't exactly dominated even in his best games. Not sure what to think about him other than he probably doesn't need to be in AA next season?
  9. jmlease1
    You're stretching it a lot to say that Roden is "easily" the best bet of the three between Fedko, Martin, and Roden. He might be a better bet than Fedko; probably a better defender at this point, but we really can't say as a hitter until Fedko gets a look. But Martin has shown substantial improvement at the plate this season and has actually done something in MLB to earn a job. It's fair that people including me are probably too down on Roden because of the trade that brought him here, but what has Roden really done to get enthusiastic about? He's hit well in less than a season's worth of ABs in AAA and totally flopped in his first taste of MLB. Martin wasn't great in his first taste of MLB at age 25 either, but he was better than Roden. Roden didn't even look particularly good in the OF.
  10. jmlease1
    Julien got sent down, rightfully, this season and hit well again in AAA. .879 OPS is good even in the International League. It made sense to call him back up once space opened up on the roster. Miranda is the one who has completely imploded.
  11. jmlease1
    Because Fedko really shouldn't be playing CF and the book on Outman was that he could. Plus, Fedko hasn't been added to the 40-man yet. I don't think Outman should be on the Twins in 2026, but I'm ok with settling the issue once and for all now...and I'd kind of prefer that Fedko not get any of the stink of this season on him and have the (rightfully) bitter and angry fans turn on him if he doesn't immediately Keaschall it. I'd like the OF to be Buxton, Jenkins, and either GG or E-Rod in some orientation, and I'd be fine with 2 of Larnach, Fedko, and Martin on the bench for the OF (with Wallner at DH and capable of stepping into RF as needed). That's an OF for now and the future. I suspect we'll get stuck with Roden and a minimum salary scrap-heap veteran, though.
  12. jmlease1
    I like the revisionist history on prospects that looked great immediately and then fell apart (or weren't all immediate and consistent all-stars) that the Twins somehow "ruined" them...and that most of these guys were ever considered in Jenkins class. Royce Lewis looked great from the jump...and then suffered another major injury. He's been littered with them, and it unquestionably relates to his struggles to be a consistent player. But he's developing nicely at 3B defensively (above average with the potential to be a plus defender). He's the last prospect we've had that is on the same class of prospect as Walker Jenkins. Martin, Wallner, Julien, and Miranda were never so highly regarded. (Martin made some top 20 prospect lists early on; Wallner & Julien weren't even considered top 100 guys, and Miranda barely cracked into that when he had a late bust-out season) In past 20+ years the only prospects we've had that were truly in this class have been Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis...and now Walker Jenkins. Even Brooks Lee, who was well-regarded is much more like Martin. Even Keaschall, who is doing great, never ranked so high. (Sano eventually rose to these kinds of rankings, but it took time.) It still guarantees nothing, but to be in the Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis cadre is pretty awesome. Jenkins has answered every question so far, except whether or not he can stay healthy for a full season. Which, considering what has happened to so many quality Twins prospects, including their absolute top-tier guys scares me...but none of the injuries he's had have been serious or the type to have long-term effects. (It's not like he blew out a knee or has a disc problem in his back) I just hope they do a long-term deal with him (7 seasons sounds fine) and he's starting from Day 1 in RF or LF and gunning for RoY.
  13. jmlease1
    Polanco looks pretty much like he did in 2019 & 2021 with the Twins. I'm sure he made some adjustments after a pretty poor 2024, but he's also playing as a primary DH now with only about 20% of his time at 2B, so maybe the fact that he's playing so little in the field is keeping him healthier/fresher to hit.
  14. jmlease1
    This is ridiculous. Polanco was moved off SS to try and keep him healthier, not forced to keep playing a position that would keep aggravating his injuries. Miranda was looked at to play more 1B and DH after injuring his shoulder. Your speculation on Kirilloff is ludicrous: he sustained a significant back injury (ask Aaron Gleeman how much fun it is) and was looking at another arduous rehab with no assurance of success. It wasn't about "not getting a fair shake at DH/1B". You're simply making stuff up to fit your view of things you perceive as wrong with this front office. There's literally nothing to support your conclusions about Kirilloff other than you want to clean house with the front office, manager, and development staff. Miranda's inability to hit after being sent back down to AAA suggests that after the back and shoulder injuries he simply can't swing the way he used to, and hasn't been able to adapt to a new approach at the plate that gives him any success within his current physical status. To me, he looks like a player who is more limited physically now, and simply can't make the same kind of hard contact he used to. He's never been a disciplined hitter, but used to be able to still make hard contact when he swung, and now it looks like he can't cover the same amount of the plate and still hit the ball hard. He needs to hit to be an effective player, and it may well be that the cumulative injuries have taken that away from him with his old approach...and his lack of plate discipline may be impeding his ability to change to a different, more disciplined approach that would allow him to hit better. It looks awful for him. Maybe a winter off, a total reset with rest and strengthening over the offseason could get him back on track...or maybe he's just not going to be able to do it. But I doubt it's about "heart". And it certainly has nothing to do with the situations Polanco & Kirilloff found themselves in.
  15. jmlease1
    Gasper didn't do well behind the plate last night, but I was actually a little surprised he got the error; seems to be almost random when the scorer gives those out for players trying to catch a foul ball. But it wasn't a good day in the field for either team. Outman may have had his best day at the plate since becoming a Twin, but looked like a guy who needs to be moved out of CF. And yet, we still did better than the Angels, who kicked the ball around even more. I'm still nervous about Martin's SLG being below his OBP, but if he can keep getting on base like this and find a few xbhs then he's going to have a role. He's starting to look like a classic leadoff man, so if he can get better with his decision-making on the bases, that might be a real asset. Be nice to have guys like Martin and Keaschall getting on base for big boppers like Buxton. I'm not ready to declare Royce Lewis fixed, but he's definitely looking better. The question is whether or not he can find this more consistently. And I'd definitely like to see him get to a point where he's comfortable taking walks and not hacking so much (still gets himself out too often chasing pitches out of the zone). But this was a good game. And he's had some recently where he's hammered the ball hard and it's just been right at someone. So hopefully he's finding a process that's working better. His play at 3B is certainly encouraging: he's back to looking like a real asset there. Happy to see Adams rack up 4 K's in relief and keep runs off the board. not thrilled to see him walk 2 in 1 2/3, but like seeing them test him as a reliever and not a bulk innings/starting role. Be great if he takes to the transition in role.
  16. jmlease1
    and the fact that St. L offered more years and more guaranteed money than anyone else. It's always about the money first, everything else second. (and I'm not knocking Sonny Gray for it one bit! He took the money and job security and went somewhere that had other ancillary benefits to him. Good for him.)
  17. jmlease1
    I think the headline here has probably overclocked where expectations should be set for Martin going forward. "Integral member" suggests that a) he's going to be a starter in 2026, and 2) that he'll be a significant part of the success or failure of that team as a player that will be counted on to really produce. I think that's probably aiming a little high for what Martin's role will be and should be, unless he keeps improving and heads more towards his ceiling as a player. I've been trying to think of reasonable Twins comps for Martin, and here's where I landed: Floor: Bobby Kielty (inconsistent hitter who got on base and could play a few spots in the OF; good enough to be a backup for several seasons by overstretched as a starter) Ceiling: Shannon Stewart (speedy OF who got on base a lot, hit pretty well and was best in LF; zero all-star appearances but a couple of seasons where you could make an argument and generally was a solid starter for 6+ seasons) Possible: Matt Lawton (speedy OF who got on base a lot but wasn't outstanding enough as a defender to play CF and didn't have enough pop to really play RF, but was a decent starter for several seasons) Possible: Dan Gladden (inconsistent hitter but good OF with solid speed and almost no pop) I think Martin can be better than Kielty (there's more speed and upside defensively), but it's probably a reach to get to Stewart. But if he's a Gladden or Lawton...that's a very useful player, even if they're not a star. We'll see. He's been doing much better this season, battling for walks and showing improvement in the field; even with some shockers on the bases, he's also shown upside there. I'm not ready to call him "integral", but part of fielding a good team is not giving innings to bad players and raising the floor. I think we'll have to look to guys like Jenkins to raise the ceiling, but if Martin can raise the floor by being a Matt Lawton? That will make a difference.
  18. jmlease1
    It's why I'm skeptical about Sabato! Historically, Sabato has done better at taking walks than he's shown so far in AAA, but it's a huge question mark and a reason why he's not getting a look I'm guessing. But he's at least got the unknown factor going for him and hits RH. I'm certainly skeptical about him, but I'm pretty convinced about who Kody Clemens already is, and it shouldn't be starting at 1B for the Twins.
  19. jmlease1
    More like 98% money, 2% closer to home, 0% anything to actually do with anyone at the Twins. He hasn't been used any differently with St. L than he was with the Twins when healthy 2023 - 5.75 innings/start 2024 - 5.93 innings/start 2025 - 5.64 innings/start So if he really has a beef with Rocco, he's having the same fight with Marmol. (more likely? Sonny Gray has never wanted to come out of any game he's started in his pro career whether he's getting shelled or not)
  20. jmlease1
    A silly story. Losing Gray wasn't the reason the Twins collapsed: losing Gray and not using the money saved by not re-signing Gray to shore up the squad is why the Twins have collapsed. Remember, Gray left and the Twins cut payroll. If they had brought Gray back they would have had to dump money somewhere else, because ownership mandated a payroll reduction. Now, the Twins were never going to offer a contract like St. Louis did, and they were almost certainly right not to. Gray was fine last season (not great, but a decent starter) and this season he's been more like SWR than a leader of a rotation. I guarantee people around here would be losing their minds at him getting paid $25M for what he's producing. Gray has been healthy, but he hasn't been great. I certainly wouldn't feel very good about being on the hook for $25M for Sonny Gray for 2026! It's all about "right-sizing" the payroll and pulling the rug out from under everyone by ownership. Not losing Sonny Gray's so-called "leadership".
  21. jmlease1
    right. McCusker also plays OF and Sabato doesn't. I have zero interest in seeing any more of the unfortunately named Outman, but I don't know if it makes that much difference getting Fedko a cup of coffee at the end of this gross season or not. I guess I'd rather make sure there's no doubt that guys like Outman aren't around in 2026? I don't really believe in Sabato either, though I respect how he's ground his way up to AAA after having real struggles to adapt. But I'd rather take a look at Sabato at 1B than waste time with Clemens, who is a truly inconsistent player and has such a dreadful OBP that I doubt the occasional home run barrage is worth it in the end.
  22. jmlease1
    I would drop both from the 40-man in the offseason; at this point I don't know if Outman gets picked up, frankly, but what do we lose if he does? His defense has slipped, he can't hit MLB pitching, and we have younger prospects with much more ceiling at this point. Same with Keirsey: he can't hit. His defense is excellent and his got nice speed, but he's a defensive replacement/pinch-runner, and that's simply not good enough. How many teams can afford to carry a 13th man with that limited of a role? I don't think either sticks on a MLB roster in 2026; they might land on the 40-man but neither has shown anywhere near enough to be a serious contender for a 26-man roster IMHO. Quad-A players.
  23. jmlease1
    This is going to be fun. Martin is exactly the kind of player a lot of people around here have been demanding that the Twins get in here for several years, and now that he's here I'm going to sit back and watch as the comments fly picking him apart. It'll be a long run of "I want this kind of player, but not THIS player". Martin looks like he could be a decent 4th OF to me, with the added bonus of being able to play 2B in a pinch. That's not quite super-utility levels but there's some positional flexibility. He's certainly looked better defensively in the OF, but has a ways to go on his route-running. That said, it's the kind of skill that he should be able to improve on and he has the tools for it. The baserunning has been...inconsistent. Tools are there, but training is not. Considering how bad of a 3B coach Tommy Watkins seems to be...is he getting any help with improvement? The speed is at least there when he should be able to be above average. Martin is not going to hit for power. That's clearly been scrapped. But he makes a lot of contact, can leg out the occasional swinging bunt, and takes his walks, so there's some viability there, especially if he starts getting plunked with regularity again like he did in the minors. He's showing that he can get on base. But with almost no pop in his bat at all, there's a real limit to his ceiling at the plate. I'd rather have Martin than Outman or Roden, which seems to be the competition right now. I'd prefer Martin to Clemens and his sub-.300 OPS too. But he should be a bench player, not a starter. He'd fit just fine if the primary starting OF was Buxton, Jenkins, and GG.
  24. jmlease1
    Rojas should not be in AAA. There was little reason to move him in there (especially with so many starters already as options) and all he's done at AAA is get his brains beat in. It's not like he'd proven mastery over AA; dude only had 4 starts there for Toronto before they called him up for 1 start. To me, this screams of "we need to prove that we were right about trading away Varland!" rather than doing what's best for his development...and one thing this front office has shown is that they're not great at admitting that they've made an error. He's got great talent, but needs real work. He should have gone to Wichita from the jump and if they wanted to see more of him this season he could have finished in AAA since the season runs longer. or send him to the AFL if they want him to get some additional work. But this has been dumb. Walker Jenkins is ripping it up and I'm not the least bit surprised. It's why there wasn't any reason to panic by the slow start as he got acclimated. That said, I don't see any good reason to call him up to MLB for the last dregs of this wasteland of a season. All we'd be doing there is a PR stunt, and I doubt it would do anything for his development. Keep the stink of this season off our best prospect. (and frankly don't give the short-attention span fans any reason to turn on him if he doesn't immediately smash it) Start him with the Twins in 2026 and give him a shot at Rookie of Year and give us all some hope, but he doesn't need to be part of the dumpster fire of 2025 to save a flailing front office and an embarrassing ownership.
  25. jmlease1
    Hunter's durability matters, but he's never had the ceiling that Buxton has. Torii never put up an OPS+ over 130; Buxton has done it 4 times. (as noted elsewhere: Torii was a better hitter in CA than in MN) It's not just about WAR. Hunter was a very good and occasionally great player who was durable and remarkable for staying consistently very good well into his 30's. Buxton is a great player who has battled injuries for his entire career. Hunter also piled up Gold Gloves during an era where they were still struggling to evaluate defense and kept giving it to the same guys year after year. Or do you really think Torii deserved all of those? Remember this was the era that Jeter won a bunch of GG's, and he was literally never the best defensive SS in the AL by any standard other than "he's the famous Yankee"
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