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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I don't think they are either, but they would certainly lose $10M per year if the club was appreciating at $50M per year, especially since previously they'd been able to simply borrow against the team for the "losses". But even if they were losing money (a premise I won't accept without seeing the books, because the Pohlads cannot be trusted; no owner can, frankly) it would be mostly because of their own incompetence at the business of running a pro sports franchise. They've completely bungled their media rights and opportunities over the past 10-20 years to the point that now their media rights may be run by MLB. I'm sure it's true that they've run up hundreds of millions of debt on their books...but how and why it got there remains to be told. How much did they assign from "related" business deals? How much was from their contribution to build Target Field? How much was from debt service since they apparently borrowed all the time rather than do a capital call? How much of an actual operating deficit did they run and why? They are not to be trusted on money matters.
  2. jmlease1
    I'm feeling quite confident the Cheap Pohlads will cut payroll to $100M or less. They're already putting word out that they were losing $40M this season on a payroll in the $140M range. They've burned down the team out of competition for 2026 without real investment (which no one should expect), so why would they lose money on a losing team? (this is all presuming you believe anything the Pohlads say about money, which no one should without audited financials in front of you). $95M feels like the ceiling, and $75M feels like the floor. It sucks. Sick of this ownership.
  3. jmlease1
    Your math is simply wrong. You don't use batting average to assess how often a player is going to make an out: that's what on-base percentage is for. Wallner's is .319. Brooks Lee (whom I still like) is at .292. Wallner isn';t going to make an out "almost 80% of the time": it's 68% of the time this season (his worst as a pro). What does it mean that Lee has more RBI than Wallner? Primarily that he's had more runners on base when he's come to the plate, and that he's come to the plate more often. It's not a sign of some kind of mythical "clutchiness". Maybe one of the young players in the minors will end up being better than Wallner, but it's a preposterous statement to say that Wallner should not be in MLB. You're ignoring his production at the plate because you don't like his style. Insistence that players that play a style you like are better than they are and players that you don't like are worse than they are is the worst kind of evaluation. Lee has to avoid more outs. I'm sure he knows this. I don't care if he does it through more hits or more walks (preferably both) but it's been a big problem for him this season.
  4. jmlease1
    That presumes the Twins are allowed to have a payroll over $95M by ownership. If they are, then yes, they should be keeping the starting pitching and trying to extend Ryan, even if it only gets them 1 year of his FA. But if they were claiming to be losing $40M with a payroll of $135M, Correa's dead money on payroll for 2026, and attendance guaranteed to be down next season (the only way they crack 1.5M next season is for them to discount tickets and have fan invasions from MKE, TOR, KC, CWS, etc) why should anyone believe they'll authorize a payroll north of $100M? Never believe anything the Pohlads say. They suckered us once this decade by investing in the team, then pulled the rug out, at least in part because they are utter bunglers when it comes to their media rights and growing fan support.
  5. jmlease1
    The Twins might be positioned to compete in 2026, or at least be able to compete if they choose to...but there's little evidence that will be the path they take. 1) they would need to hold on to Lopez & Ryan, and right now the smart money is on both of them going out the door. Lopez for additional payroll savings, and Ryan because the return will be very high as they continue to re-work the rebuild...and it will also save more money, since Ryan is due a hefty raise. There's nothing to show that the Pohlads won't continue to cut spending, new partners or no, and every reason to believe they will, especially since they managed to leak word around that they were set to lose $40M this season with a payroll around $135M. Now...do I believe them on that? I don't trust the Pohlads on anything related to finances, but it seemed clearly designed to try and get away with "right-sizing" the payroll back under $100M. 2) they would need to actually spend some money to try and plug some of the holes in the lineup. 1B is a real deficit; handing the job to Clemens isn't a sign of a team trying to compete. Could they ask Wallner to move there? Sure, but we simply don't know if he can be good defensively there and even then you're just moving a hole. Now, the Twins do have prospects that might be capable of jumping in the OF in 2026, but a team looking to compete in 2026 isn't going to run out an OF with Byron Buxton and a bunch of unproven rookies...or cast-offs that have so far flunked their early tries in MLB. (I expect Larnach to be gone) We also need a backup catcher (assuming Jeffers isn't sent packing for more salary-savings), because a team trying to contend isn't going to run out Mickey Gasper there either. While I still like Brooks Lee, and Lewis has enough talent that I still think he can hit again (and his defense looks quality), neither are sure things. 3) the bullpen is unlikely to get fixed by 2026. It takes luck and money to patch bullpen holes via FA; we haven't shown much luck in that department, and until proven otherwise, I expect no real spending. There are internal candidates, but right now we don't even know who they really are in terms of moving a minor-league starter or 2 into a bullpen role, and even then there's no guarantee it will work. The closest thing we have to proven relievers is Sands, Tonkin, and Topa...after that we need to find 4 more, and that's assuming those guys are actually good & healthy next season instead of ok/injured. I'd feel very good about the rotation if Lopez & Ryan were there to anchor it, but why should I believe?
  6. jmlease1
    Yeah, but he's a "gamer"! He gets dirt on his uniform and runs hard on every play! That's got to be better than a player who can actually hit, right? #sarcasm There's worse choices for a utility guy than Kody Clemens, but that's who he is. If he's a contender for the starting job at 1B it's because the Pohlads have shrunk the payroll down again and preemptively put up the white surrender flag for 2026, awaiting a lockout/strike in 2027. Looking at the roster right now, the lineup is pretty thin. I expect Larnach to be gone because the Cheap Pohlads will want more payroll reduction, but he also should be moved on from because he doesn't produce enough as a decent platoon bat with little to no defensive value. I'd say management is hoping Roden or Outman can grab a spot, something that doesn't thrill me at all. Hopefully if both continue to crap out they won't keep chasing but I suspect both will be examples of sunk cost fallacy. Martin continues to be just ok and never seems to be able to get his tools to play up (he's not as good an OF as his profile would indicate, his speed doesn't seem to play on the bases much, etc), so how much longer do we keep doing this dance? Fedko is interesting; at least he's trending in the right direction. But counting on him to step in and produce seems...risky.
  7. jmlease1
    Wallner isn't slightly better at the plate, though. He's better at the plate than Lee by every hitting metric except batting average, which is the hill you've chosen to die on, apparently. Flirting with the Mendoza Line isn't good, but is tolerable when you take the number of walks that Wallner has. He's been better than Correa, Larnach, Lewis, France, Lee, Julien, Castro... I'm not going to say he's been good enough, because it's been a down season for him where he hasn't been as impactful as he has before, but to say he failed seems only viable in the context of the entire team failing this season. I get it: you hate Wallner's game. You don't want to have low BA/high K players on the team, regardless of anything else. But you're judging him on style, not actual performance. Lee has to improve at the plate, not because he's 24 or a SS, but because he's not producing enough. You simply can't have an OBP below .300 and stick in an MLB lineup. Andrelton Simmons was one of the best defensive SS in MLB, won 4 Gold Gloves and probably deserved more, but look at how fast he was out of the league once his offense went from just bad to terrible. And Brooks Lee is no Simmons on defense. I still like Brooks Lee as a player, but I'm not blind to his flaws. He needs to stop swinging at everything and be more selective at the plate. He's shown some improvement this season, and has looked better lately, but he need to keep improving, because what we're getting right now isn't enough for a starter, even at SS.
  8. jmlease1
    The chase rate is the most concerning thing with Fedko, and it's very fair to worry about how he does against breaking/offspeed stuff. MLB teams will put together a book on a player very quickly, and if he shows he can't hold off on breaking pitches out of the zone and struggles with offspeed stuff, he stop seeing much in the way of hittable fastballs. But he's done a great job this season of taking advantage of his opportunities. I don't mind a player being pull-happy if it's getting him the results he needs, and this season has been encouraging. The fact that he hasn't needed an offseason adjustment period in his promotion to AAA seems to be a good sign that he's figured some things out, even if that BABIP will bring him back down to earth eventually. He's giving himself a chance, and should get a look in spring training. Roden will have an advantage in that it looks like he can handle CF and I'm not sure Fedko can, but Fedko is making a case for himself as a hitter.
  9. jmlease1
    Good for Fedko in continuing to rake. I'd love for him to have figured something out and develop the kind of consistent swing and offense you'd hope for. We could definitely use his kind of RH thump in the OF and it's great if he can keep rolling. I'm a little curious about his RH/LH splits; he mashes LHP just fine, but the BA drops. Not sure if that's just small sample size or something about his approach? Rosario is having a nice season after that awful start. Thought he might get bumped up to AAA, but he at least seems to be setting himself up to be in Saint Paul next season. Wonder if he'll get protected? The bat is intriguing, but he's also the sort of guy you might be able to slip through in the Rule 5 because he's average at best in the OF, can't handle CF, and probably hasn't done enough at the plate to show that he's ready to contribute at the MLB level on offense. He's going to K a lot, so I'm sure some people around here would like to drop him on a raft and send him out to sea, but he absolutely annihilates LHP. Not liking what we're seeing out of Rojas so far. Feels like he's not ready for AAA and was placed there more because the trade made people mad in losing Varland and they are trying to show that "no, no, we got someone really good who is close!" and right now he ain't there. That's probably not why they did it, but perception can feed reality. With Roden looking like just another guy, Rojas is clearly the reason for the deal...and he's got a lot of work to do.
  10. jmlease1
    Slugging percentage isn't mythical. I agree that they to winning is scoring runs, but one of the best ways to do that is with extra-base hits, aka power production. It's a lot easier to score runs, and score multiple runs when you don't have to do it one base per batter. Hells bells, one of the reasons your nym-sake was so good was his ability to hit for power while avoiding outs. (and please don't start on RBIs; was Hrbek a bad hitter because he only cleared 100 RBI's once in his career? One of his best seasons as a pro ('88) was one of his worst season for RBIs. RBI's simply don't correlate.) I'm not going to pretend that Wallner is a good outfielder: he's not. He's below average because he's slow to get moving and doesn't always take the best routes to the ball. His arm makes up for it a little because he's hard to run on, but he's still below average defensively. No one has been arguing that. But the value from his bat makes it ok to run him out there in RF until we can find someone else who can hit out there and let Wallner DH more.
  11. jmlease1
    It's "biased" towards power hitters because hitting for power is one of the most effective ways to score runs. Avoiding outs and hitting for power is the most consistent way to generate offense. No one was happy with Gallo's 2023 season, especially because after a hot start he hit terribly, so it was months of poor performance. The overall production for the year was still league average, but his slump after Mar/Apr made him nearly unplayable. Which is why you don't just look at one stat. But Wallner isn't having a season like Gallo's 2023: he's substantially better and has been doing a better job at avoiding outs than Lee, which is part of where Lee has been falling down. I'm not out on Lee by any means, but he has to do more to avoid outs. He either needs to be able to get a lot more hits or a increase his walk totals, because a .288 OBP simply isn't going to get it done. He's been very inconsistent at the plate this season, with horrific slumps in May and July. Nobody wants an offense where everyone has a BA under .220, but there's room for a guy like Wallner who has massive power and is a dangerous hitter who also gets himself on base by knowing the strike zone. Right now Wallner has 35 points of OBP on Lee and that matters. The handful of extra singles Lee gets isn't enough to make up for all the extra walks Wallner gets. Wallner avoids more outs than Lee, even with a low BA. The Wallner slander must stop.
  12. jmlease1
    I agree. If he can continue to improve and put up that kind of line, he'll be more than capable of holding down SS until Culpepper is ready...and more importantly could make him earn the job rather than get it handed to him. Lee has a ways to go, and has got to sharpen up his approach at the plate to control the strike zone rather than let it control him, but he's starting to show he can punish a pitcher who hangs one, which is a good sign. But let's talk again when he gets that OBP above .300 and the SLG closer to .400...
  13. jmlease1
    There's something interesting there, at least. Might not turn into anything consistent enough to be counted on for more than just middle/long relief, but he did well in his outings against Detroit (who is a good team) and twice in relative proximity at that. The Yankee outing was dreadful (7 walks? yuck) but if he can push 2 out of 3 to 3 out of 4... I don't mind taking a long look at him to see if something can be put together in the bullpen. If he could give you 2 solid innings every 3-4 days... He's a lottery ticket. Now's the time to try and cash some of those in and see what you get on the scratcher.
  14. jmlease1
    Hilarious. Wallner has an OPS+ of 116 in a down season for him (His career OPS+ is 131). Brooks Lee has an OPS+ of 82. Wallner is nowhere near Miranda as a black hole, but they're also completely different hitters. Miranda had lost all inklings of power last time he was up so his plate coverage generated nothing but weak contact. It's why this article is appropriate, because right now Lee has been generating too much weak contact especially when he chases. For Lee to be a successful hitter he needs to find a renewed plate discipline and stop swinging at everything. An OBP under .300 will simply not do. Lee has been very very streaky this season. Started the year looking good, then had a dreadful May. Bounced back for a very nice June...and followed that up with a horrific July. August hasn't exactly been good, but he's shown some signs of life in the past 2 weeks. In the minors Lee showed very good contact skills, decent pop, and acceptable patience. In MLB, the contact skills haven't been producing hits, because he's chasing pitches he can't do much with. His patience has been reduced and the pop has been very inconsistent
  15. jmlease1
    You're tired of a player with a career OPS+ of 131? You're acting like Wallner is some scrub just because you don't like strikeouts. Would he actually be a better player if he hit a bunch more lazy flies and easy grounders instead of striking out? (the answer is: not particularly) Also, Fedko is almost certainly going to strike out a lot if/when he makes it to MLB. Sure, it probably will be less than Wallner, but Fedko's also never had Wallner's power production.
  16. jmlease1
    Very impressed with Fedko this season. Right now it's looks like he's broken his development pattern where he's struggled in his first taste of a new level, and that's good to see. Saint Paul may be a hitter's environment, but the fact remains that he's actually doing better than he was at AA. Still a fairly small sample, but very encouraging. He's making a real case for himself to get added to the 40-man in the offseason. Walker Jenkins is back. Just happy it wasn't something more serious. He's having a fine season.
  17. jmlease1
    Because they cut payroll and have an ownership that can't be trusted to spend at a league-average level. You've been suggesting it's because they have a stupid front office and a crappy manager. If they keep Lopez & Ryan (which sadly I fear they will not) and get $40M in payroll authorization to spend, I'm quite certain they won't have any trouble spending it, and not just overpaying a bunch of fringe guys like Ty France. The fish rots from the head.
  18. jmlease1
    If Paddack is bitching about facilities, that's on ownership, not the manager. And I think we all know this ownership isn't making significant investments in facilities right now. But that all impacts more against recruitment and retention of free agents, rather than the "clubhouse culture", which was supposedly what we were talking about here. Was Paddack taking a shot at the Twins? Maybe, or maybe he was trying to get in good with his new organization so they'll consider keeping him on the playoff roster. But it's taken some work to find people who were looking to get out, huh? Doubt we'll hear anything running down the Twins and how they wanted to leave from Castro, Stewart, Bader, Duran (we've seen his quotes already), Varland, France, Correa (if he really wanted out he would have considered more than just Houston in waiving the no-trade) or Dobnak. We're seeing a lot of self-fulfilling prophecy going on right now. The people who hate the manager and the front office and want them all gone are reading in whatever they want to keep making their point. There's no real evidence that the Twins have done a poor job in how they treat their players and make them want to leave...outside of not winning enough. They've kept the knucklehead count in the clubhouse down (seemingly close to or at zero most of the time). That's why the comments from Pablo are a little surprising, and to me read more like "we ain't winning enough and something needs to be done".
  19. jmlease1
    It's Keaschall for now, but he'll be off the list in short order, so what's the point of dropping him in? I think I would argue for Culpepper. He's showing that he can stick at SS, the hitting has improved already, and he's getting fast-tracked for promotion. E-Rod has all the talent as a hitter to be the #2 prospect, but his health is a huge barrier. If you strip out his rehab assignments, he hasn't played 50 games in a season since 2023 (maybe he'll still there this season, but that's still not good) Tait is definitely rising.
  20. jmlease1
    the NFLPA would have had to have been powerful for it to get neutered.
  21. jmlease1
    Really? Lots of people wanting Rocco strung up by his ankles around here, but that was mostly for not bunting enough/treating starters like it was 1972/platooning too much. Plenty of second-guessing every pitching switch, lineup choices (lot of complaining about not having a "set lineup"), etc. Very little on clubhouse culture, unless it was demanding that the Twins run and bunt more. I still believe that people overrate a manager's impact on winning: player performance and good health are much much more important. But my point on managers isn't to say that anyone can do it, but that there's much less of a difference between managers when you talk about the guys in the middle of the pro pack. There's fewer than ever total incompetents, but also fewer truly elite/impactful guys. Most are in that middle who look very smart when their players play well and stay healthy, and very dumb when they don't.
  22. jmlease1
    How do you know Correa was checked out? You're reading a lot into the guy with Plantar Fasciitis not running max effort on every grounder. Fans get way too obsessed with the peformative stuff (like how dirty a player's jersey is after a game, etc) in deciding whether a player works hard or not. This is the sort of thing people bend in shape to rip a guy they had already decided they didn't want/thought was overpaid. Got a quote from an actual Twins player or coach on Correa's work habits or other evidence that Correa has "checked out"? I mean, FFS someone on this board declared that Buxton had checked out on the season (apparently because they didn't like the box score or something) and the next day Buck rapped out 3 hits. There's no real evidence that I've seen to this point that suggests that Correa ever checked out or dogged it. Multiple players did talk about how they learned things from Correa, both in terms of things they did on the field and how to prepare as well.
  23. jmlease1
    I dislike this kind of gatekeeping that suggests that certain kinds of Twins fans are better than others. Making judgments about the people who go to games and there reasons isn't a good look and only serves to shrink the fanbase. If some fans are going to the game with a primary reason of partying...why is that bad? Those can also be the fans that 10 years later keep coming to games in part because they caught the baseball bug after having so many great days at the game. There's no one right way to be a fan, IMHO. I agree with Matthew's premise here: go to the game if you want, and don't let billionaire idiot owners deprive you if you can still get enjoyment out of it. If they've wrecked it for you, it's perfectly fine if you want to take a break as well. The Pohlads don't care about you, so you need to make sure you do.
  24. jmlease1
    I'm not sure where to take those comments from Pablo. Maybe he didn't feel like he had much of an opportunity to lead outside of the pitching staff while Correa was here? At the end of the day, a lot of the culture comments are a way to avoid criticism for lack of on-field production to me. Losing games and too many guys under-performing? Blame clubhouse culture, especially on a team where there's no identifiable/known knucklehead and no individual is going to be held responsible. I also tend to agree with Nick: culture is the sort of thing that people talk about when they're losing. Don't want to publicly criticize one of your teammates for being under the Mendoza Line or giving up too many dingers? Talk about a need for a culture reset. All of that said, it's the first real indicator of some dissatisfaction from the players towards the manager to me. A lot of what modern managers do is behind the scenes and out of the public eye these days, which makes it harder to evaluate how they do their jobs. When a manager starts to lose the team, it's usually time to try a new manager, because the most likely scenario is the team is losing and players are starting to grumble. While I don't share the utter contempt that so many around here hold Rocco Baldelli...it's probably time to move on. We're not getting a new owner, and I suspect we're not getting a new front office (I wouldn't mind going in that direction either, but I don't exactly have faith in Joe Effing Pohlad to pick the next GM, so the devil we know might be better than the devil we don't) so this might be one of the only ways we get a more significant shakeup.
  25. jmlease1
    Gallagher is going to be an interesting one to watch; a lot of people were disappointed in what we got in return from Castro, but so far Gallagher has done enough to be interesting. I don't think I would have him that high in the prospect rankings yet; he's been effective but hittable, and the K-rate could use some improvement. AA looks like the right spot for him as he refines his pitches. Smith is a guy I don't know much about, but he's certainly done well in his debut. The FCL has a history of depressing power numbers, so seeing guys with a SLG over .500 is notable, even if it's a relatively small sample. His summer league exploits are the kind of thing that make you wonder how he would transition to pro from college, but so far he's doing fine, and he hasn't turned 21 yet, so the age thing isn't too concerning. It'll be interesting to see if he gets bumped up to Cedar Rapids this season; I would expect him to get bumped up for next season for sure unless he really falls apart. While I tend to agree that you shouldn't be looking to draft guys that are already at 1B for their defensive position, once you've hit the 17th round it's not a bad time to take a flyer on a bat like this. Abel is doing well. With the rotation so short right now, I'd look hard at bumping him up to Target Field. SWR is going to need time to rebuild strength, Pablo hasn't gone on a rehab yet, so i think there's room for him even if Festa gets back. Would rather see what Abel can do than any more bullpen games.
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