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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    well, it was a strength and it did have depth (YMMV on what constitutes "plenty"). The starting pitching so far this season has been really good, pretty much what we reasonably could have expected (not perfect; SWR wasn't great and was properly sent down, but the rest did well and we saw some promising things from Festa and Zebby). This is why the Twins have been so reluctant to move on from marginal veterans in the last few years: if a bunch of injuries hit at the same position at the same time, it can get ugly fast. We were in a pretty good position to whether losing Pablo, but losing one of your top 2 starters is a huge blow to every team in MLB. Seriously, who in MLB isn't going to be impacted by losing the guy who is arguably your ace? When Pablo goes down at the same time that you'd sent down your 5th starter for performance issues and the guy you'd called up goes on the IL, and one of your other top 3 rotation guys may have an injury as well...yeah, I think the depth is going to get depleted. Not because it was "supposed" depth, but because it was a lot of injuries all at once.
  2. jmlease1
    Weird take considering Pablo wasn't pitching. But Pablo is younger and has been at least as good as Gray over the past season and a half, while costing less, and letting Gray go also got us a prospect. Next season Gray is going to cost StL $35M while Pablo will cost $21M. Baldelli supposedly "pissing him off" is nonsense for why Gray went elsewhere: he signed with StL because they offered him a boatload of money, 3+ years on the contract, and it's close to where he's from. Not because Baldelli offended him and somehow drove him away. (btw, I guarantee you that Gray has been mad about getting pulled from a start in StL this season. He's ALWAYS mad when he has to come out of a game. But apparently, it's only in MN that it's so offensive that it drove him away...) BTW, Bailey Ober was at least as good as Sonny Gray last season.
  3. jmlease1
    Oof. Awful timing for Ober to put up an utter stinker, and surprising to see Sands fail to throw some water on the fire as he'd been quite good this season. Just a dreadful day of pitching all around. Ober does seem to have this in him, though: when he struggles it turns into a 17 car pileup. He really implodes. It's extra frustrating because Texas has been pretty rotten offensively so far this season. So giving up 16 runs twice in 3 games is pretty gross. I'm not going to beat up the offense too much for this one, though they certainly could have been better. But when your starter gives up 4 homers, it's going to be a bad day. Time to cleanse this series from the cache and start over.
  4. jmlease1
    Wichita may have gotten clobbered, but at least GG keeps doing his thing at the plate. Would like to see a bit more pop out of his bat, but he's been handling the move up to AA pretty well, I'd say. The question is, who is the next guy to get a move up from Cedar Rapids? Culpepper, Amick, DeBarge, Diaw, and De Andrade are all worthy. I'd bet on Culpepper and DeBarge, I think. Amick's on the IL, Diaw hasn't gotten a ton of ABs in Cedar Rapids yet, and De Andrade has cooled off a little. But hopefully they move up a couple more guys soon. 3 doubleheaders today. that'll be interesting!
  5. jmlease1
    I'm bummed that it didn't work out with Alcala, a player I've been high on before. But he just hasn't been able to figure it out and he's getting killed by everyone right now. He used to at least be death on righties, but despite the superior velocity, no one seems to fear him and the walks are back up to unacceptable levels. He's also been one of those guys that frequently makes the mental mistakes on which bag to cover, etc and it clearly drove the coaches nuts. At least we got something for him? And frankly, it's good to move on from him. He wasn't trusted (for good reason), he wasn't pitching well, and we need to have every player on the roster usable. He will have a good stretch again, I suspect. It might not be for Boston. But he's just a fungible reliever that can give you a good season and then be a mess then next. The poster child for not giving a middle reliever a multi-year deal. The talent is there, but lack of a consistent off-speed offering to lefties, shaky command and control, and mental lapses means it's time to move along.
  6. jmlease1
    A very nice win by the Twins and a good bounce back after an ugly loss. I wasn't thrilled seeing festa hang a change like that in the second, but it was the 3rd that made me wonder if he was going to fall apart. The defense picked him up (something we might not have said very often in recent years!) and he did a good job settling in. I was happy to see him get a chance to go 6 and not get yanked early, but I suspect the 4 run lead instead of a 1 run lead had a lot more to do with it. Buxton was great last night. Goodness, he crushed that homer! Oh, my. He obliterated that one! But he really had a complete game last night; he looks healthy and locked in. Love it. He's one of the most exciting players I've ever seen when he's healthy and it's so much fun watching him play. I'm guessing Bruce Bochy was losing his mind internally when Leiter walked Vazquez. Nice to see that happen to someone else for a change, lol. Brooks Lee looking much more comfortable at the plate the last couple of weeks, and is having a very nice stretch. Hopefully he's figured some things out and will be a regular contributor, especially with Clemens looking pretty rough over the same period.
  7. jmlease1
    I really like these articles and hate always seeming to need another one being written.
  8. jmlease1
    I'm guessing they had a conversation about it, but the dollars might not have lined up; it's one thing to give Paddack $2.5M to rehab and $7.5M for a healthy season and another to go $5.5M and $16.5M, which is what Texas gave him. It's working out just fine for Texas, but that $16.5M was a fairly big risk for a pitcher with shoulder issues, which are often worse than elbow problems to come back from. I'm betting the total cost was looked at as too much risk. I think that's fair? Couldn't have worked out better for Mahle: he's having one of his best seasons as a pro going into free agency at 31. If he stays healthy, he'll be in line for a big contract (3-4 years at $20M AAV? Maybe more?)
  9. jmlease1
    I was fine with the trade at the time, and it just didn't work out. The thought process made a lot of sense, especially because our younger pitchers in the minors simply weren't ready yet and we needed to buy some additional time to try and graduate more guys internally. His arm just ended up being unable to hold up during the time when the Twins would have been expected to have him. Heck, he was actually pretty good for us in 2023 before he went down for good. While the Twins gave up a fairly good haul in assets at the time, I don't know that it's hurt us all that much: Steer had one good season, and we were able to replace his production just fine that year. He was just ok last season and not good this year...and he's been the best of the prospects we gave up. CES (who I admittedly thought would be the best of the trio) has done nothing to date in MLB: struggles to stay healthy, and has been exposed as a hitter since showing a little promise as a rookie, and doesn't add any defensive value. Maybe he's figured something out with this recent spate of homers...or maybe he just ran into a couple, because he's been awful before that. Hajjar looks like he's out of baseball? The Mahle trade was a loss, because he got hurt. But it wasn't because he was bad and couldn't pitch. Hope he has a rotten day against us, but I wish that for every pitcher who we play.
  10. jmlease1
    I hope Julien's 4-4 day with a homer is a sign of things to come. I'm not ready to give up on him (though I know many on this site would rather have him fired out of a cannon back to Quebec than ever play for the Twins MLB team again...) but he needs to keep making consistent contact and get back to hitting with authority. There have to be some xbhs in the mix for him to be a threat again. He's clearly still got the control of the strike zone where he's able to pull walks without trouble, but he can't be a slappy singles hitter only. Will be curious if he can get it figured out over the next 1-2 months and be an option again. He's had a solid month now at AAA...except for the power production. Hope the homer was a sign of more to come. He's been better than Miranda, who is still swinging at everything, it seems. Where these guys are sitting in July will be very interesting.
  11. jmlease1
    I really didn't think I'd be asking this question, but: when does Sabato get promoted to AAA? He's finally having the kind of season where he's earning a promotion, rather than getting there somewhat (or entirely) on scholarship. And in his 3rd turn at AA, what else are we going to learn about him there? Would like to see him moved up to see if this is for real, if he's found an approach that works for him, and see if there's an opportunity to keep going. He just turned 26, make it a happy birthday in Saint Paul. Kaelen Culpepper is doing great. Can't wait to see him in AA. I don't think it'll be long now.
  12. jmlease1
    Eh. I still think i'd rather have Buxton up. The super contact guy is very nice in extra innings when your team is up in the bottom of the 10th and just needs 1 run to get the win, but holy cow that's a limited role. (it's notable that as much love as people give Arraez, he hasn't been particularly good this season, for all the expected reasons: when he's not hitting .320, he's not giving you much of anything else. No defense, no speed, little power, few walks.)
  13. jmlease1
    He's a fun story, and I'm rooting for the guy. But I wouldn't expect to see him soon. He's coming off a significant surgery, and has only played 5 games in AAA. He hasn't shown the power stroke that helped carry him up from A-ball to AAA last season (only 3 xbh so far this season, and none in AAA) and isn't commanding the strike zone quite as well yet. coming off a knee injury, it shouldn't be a surprise that he might need a while to start trusting the knee and getting his legs all the way back under him at the plate. But he also needs to show that last season wasn't a small sample size fluke. It seems unlikely that they'll dump Bride for Eeles because he's had a good week coming off injury at AAA. With Royce looking better at the plate, what kind of role would there really be for him? Bride is barely playing now that everyone is healthy, not really sure what the point would even be to dump Bride and drop Eeles on this roster right now: they're unlikely to play him, and even pinch-running seems a little unlikely immediately coming off a knee injury. Eeles probably need another month in AAA to show he's healthy, hitting, and trusts his knee enough to hit for some power. The problem for him is by the time he's shown it, Keaschall might be ready again, and I think they'll trust Keaschall to come back again over Eeles. I won't be surprised if injuries do give him an opportunity at some point this season, and he looks like a real choice to be a utility guy for next season, especially if Castro is allowed to move on. But the injury came at a bad time for him this year: he probably would have gotten a shot (and either Bride or Clemens never comes over) earlier in the year if he'd been healthy and hitting during the stretch when we ran out of left-side infielders. But he missed that window, and it might be a while before it opens up again. He's a great story, and I really respect the way he's fought his way into AAA. But he's still got more hurdles to clear.
  14. jmlease1
    A good win, stopped the bleeding nicely. Got worried when France got picked off like that; felt like one of those moments where the momentum could shift and a wobbling pitcher got bailed out. Glad to see it didn't matter, but whoof, that was poor awareness by France. Great production from the bottom half of the lineup. Nice to see so many guys collecting hits and walks from the 6-9 slots. Royce is starting to look like he's finally coming around. It's only been a week...but it's been a very good week. He'll need to show this isn't a fluke and not fall back into the hole, but he has looked good at the plate again, grinding out some ABs and getting some hits. Nice to see Ryan grind one out when he was just a bit off. He's becoming one of those guys that you just feel like he's going to figure things out and get it done. Much like Pablo, his floor is pretty high these days, and the ceiling is awfully high as well. We'll need him to keep doing this with Zebby going down too,
  15. jmlease1
    I don't get this kind of take. He's in his first full year as a professional and is thriving at high A and in line for a promotion to AA by July. Why would there even be any conversation about him being a "failed" pick, whether he's hitting this well or not? People are too willing to write-off prospects if they don't succeed immediately or get bumped a level as soon as they have a couple of good months.
  16. jmlease1
    He's the guy we passed on to take Walker Jenkins.
  17. jmlease1
    There's literally no one saying Boggs sucked as a player. Modern analytics looks at Wade Boggs and tells people that he was actually underrated in his time: Boggs was a worthy MVP candidate 5 times and never won one, and only finished in the top 5 once. Citing Wade Boggs as an argument against analytics is positively silly: the analytics LOVE Boggs. Kaelen Culpepper probably ain't Wade Boggs, though (awesome as that would be) because Boggs is a first ballot Hall of Famer and those don't come around too often. But not because anyone in the Twins organization is saying "don't play like Wade Boggs".
  18. jmlease1
    Congrats to Schobel for his first AAA hit. And congrats to Sabato, who is easily having his best pro season. Maybe he's a late developer and has figured something out, but credit to him for continuing to work and grind, after damn near everyone (including me) had written him off as a bust. He still might never make MLB, but he's at least got a chance now.
  19. jmlease1
    You don't have to be a slugger, but you also can't be an empty singles hitter, either. Boggs in his prime was also a doubles machine and hit more than 40 of them in 7 straight seasons, and his first 10 seasons had a SLG% under .400 exactly never. Boggs also took walks like crazy: led the league in OBP 6 times and finished his career with an OBP of .415. Hitting for average is great, but you can't swing at everything and not take your walks. You also have to show you can do some damage if the pitcher hangs one. doesn't have to always be a homer, but it shouldn't always just be slapping another single. That said, Wade Boggs is a first-ballot Hall of Famer for a reason! But I'm hoping that Culpepper can stick at SS. He's looking like a quality defender there, even if it's not elite, and matched with his bat could be a real asset if Correa is looking to move off SS in the next 3-4 seasons. I'm guessing the same people who have been predicting a move to 3B or 2B were the same ones saying Brooks Lee wouldn't play SS in MLB too... Culpepper is doing everything right so far: making plenty of contact, getting on base, and showing good pop in his bat, while also looking comfortable in the field. I suspect he'll get a promotion to AA in the next month unless he picks up another knock or a massive slump.
  20. jmlease1
    Learning experience for Festa. Hopefully Pablo or someone like that puts a hand on his shoulder and tells him to shake it off and gives him some tips for how to handle it when the ump is squeezing him early. Because he got hosed in the first; should have been out of that inning with only 1 run at most. It was actually kind of funny (in a frustrating way) hearing Plouffe stopping himself multiple times in the booth from outright saying the ump blew pitch calls (I'm guessing he's been told "don't call the ump outright trash, please"). Really put Festa in a tough spot, but he needs to learn how to adjust on the fly when he's not getting the calls he';s expecting and find a way to still get outs. Talent is there, and despite getting hammered in that bandbox, he still got 6 Ks in 3 2/3. Hope Correa's back problem doesn't keep him out long: he's such a difference-maker, and had been finding his hitting stroke recently. A long, cross-country road trip with two minor league parks. 5-5 isn't a bad result, really. Time to come home and get it going again.
  21. jmlease1
    You're really going to blame Festa when every close pitch he threw was called a ball? I think the maybe the plate umpire needs to go back to AAA. Be interesting to see if he squeezes the A's pitcher today...
  22. jmlease1
    Huge bummer to lose Pablo for significant time. Was hoping he was going to be gone for weeks, now it looks like months. At least it shouldn't be a season-ender, and Joe Ryan came back just fine from this injury. The pitching depth will be tested, but Festa looks ready. Hopefully the team will trust Matthews and Festa to see an opponent lineup a 3rd time consistently and see if those guys can go deeper into games. A's have got some hitters, but their pitching stinks. Glad the Twins have been running it up on them. Thought Royce took good ABs overall and it was nice to see him put up a hit and walk; if he's starting to claw his way out of it, that will be a very good sign for the Twins. Let's go get the sweep! It's just one game, but funny how much better of a road trip this would feel if they finish it 6-4 instead of 5-5...
  23. jmlease1
    So happy to have Walker Jenkins back. Hope his ankle is ok for sure and he gets to play the rest of the season. The talent is immense, but I might literally cry if another top Twins prospect gets derailed by random-ass injury.
  24. jmlease1
    Keeping Castro away from positions where he's overstretched should help him stay fresh, but hopefully they're able to get him appropriate days off too. He's an excellent super-utility guy, the kind of "10th Starter" that makes a difference when he's healthy. He clearly got ground down last season. I really like him as a guy who can play multiple positions, use his speed, and give you options that doesn't make you grimace about a trade-off. He'll give you quality defense at 2B, 3B, LF, or RF and even if he's stretched at SS or CF...he's still able to get by as a "break glass in case of emergency" option that gives you choices. And we've seen him be effective at the plate. Love being able to use him as a pinch runner in the later innings without having to make another bench move defensively. He looks locked in right now and that will be a nice boost.
  25. jmlease1
    A nice win against a bad team. But it's a bummer that Pablo might miss some time. Just hoping beyond hope that it's minor and the time he misses is measured in weeks not months. The depth will be tested here, but the good thing is Festa has looked ready, and SWR has looked like he's been making adjustments in AAA if they need to call on him again. No complaints about getting double digit runs in back to back games! Even Alcala looked good last night. Let's keep it up. win the series today, aim for the sweep.
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