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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I think the pre and post game shows are not well designed for the kinds of people who come to Twins Daily to rant and rave about the Twins and baseball. But what they are better at is bringing in more casual fans, and providing additional content to generate interest in the team. Beyond that, it's a more pleasant viewing experience if you tune in 10 minutes early and aren't greeted with a "stay tuned" graphic. So this does seem like a short-term cost cut that doesn't fit well with a more aggressive, broader business concept to grow the fan base and viewership. I would think this would be something a new owner would look at right away. It'll be nice to have more cameras and different camera angles available to the actual game broadcast, though.
  2. jmlease1
    That makes a ton of sense...but it's hard (especially in a game as obsessed with tradition as baseball) to break old habits and we're talking a loooooong history of pitches being measured in mph, which has led to everything else going on that standard. It's why some people objected to OPS (and probably still do) as a stat, because they couldn't grok it instinctively the way they did a .300 BA. right now, people "know" what a 95 mph fastball "means". It'll take a lot before people can say the same about 140 fps.
  3. jmlease1
    Correa could still make it, depending on how his legs hold up. people are giving Jimmy Rollins serious consideration (his vote totals have gone up every year) and Correa has similar bWAR in half the games played. But it's very hard to find Hall-worthy players; the Hall of Famers that have played for the Twins for more than a season or three in the last 40 years is pretty short: Mauer, Puckett. (It was nice that Molitor ended his career here, but does anyone think of him as a Twins Hall of Famer? It was great that Winfield got his 3000 hit here, but people think of the Padres or the Yankees with him. Morris had a legendary season with us, but it was one year.) Did I miss anyone? but that's part of the reason I love having Correa here: he's a truly great player.
  4. jmlease1
    I would like the Twins to work out a trade on Castellano because I don't think he'll be ready to be more than a mop-up guy out the gate, and we need to be able to use our full bullpen better than that. I would also like Festa to seize a spot in the rotation and Paddack to go out in a deal of substance. I would hope there's a real competition for 1B and they don't just hand it to France. I believe in Miranda's bat and his defense isn't any worse than France, so hopefully they give the guy with actual upside a legit chance to take a job. I think Lee has the inside track on 2B if he's healthy. He's a better defender than Julien, and we get more value out of Castro when he's not locked into one spot. I haven't given up on Julien, and I hope he's knocking the cover off the ball in spring training and gets time at 1B, 2B, and DH and gets back to being a hitting threat, but I'll put my money on lee. But if he doesn't win it outright, I think he's the one who goes to AAA to play every day, rather than sit on the bench in MLB. Ideally, my bullpen is something like: Duran, Jax, Sands, Coulombe, Alcala, Tonkin, Topa/Stewart (I just presume one of them won't get out of spring training healthy), and Varland (with Castellano in the last slot if they don't work out a trade). I think that's a strong mix, with 4-5 guys that you can trust late & close, a rubber arm middle guy in Tonkin who should be able to go more than just 1 inning, 1 slot for the "talented but injured" guys, and then the "converted starter with high upside but might need time to figure it out" role at the end in Varland. I feel pretty good about the pitching staff, which feels weird after so many years where it was "man, I hope they can patch together a rotation!" and "how many of these guys do I even like in the bullpen?". But outside of lefties, we have depth everywhere for pitching.
  5. jmlease1
    he's an interesting player to watch. i think this season will tell us a lot about whether or not he can hit for any power with wooden bats in pro baseball and be a significant hitting prospect. I don't have him fast-tracked to being a top 10 prospect in the organization, though. he did ok in Ft. Myers but hardly impressed.
  6. jmlease1
    I think that's right about what floor-raising means, mostly. And there's real value to not giving significant innings to pitchers with an ERA+ of 63 or ABs to hitters who clock in with an OPS+ of 70. But i agree that it can lower the ceiling, and it's even less helpful if/when you make the playoffs, because you have fewer difference-makers available to you. In terms of free agent signings, this is where we've mostly played, outside of the ones you've noted above. That said, I do think trades need to be considered in this: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle (just because it didn't work, didn't mean they didn't try) are all more than the "low risk, low reward" vet. (and how do you categorize Vazquez?) I do think if the Pohlads hadn't hacked $30M off the payroll in 2023 we might have seen higher quality veteran signings? (instead of a salary dump and a prospect, maybe Polanco gets moved for something more interesting...or we use the savings for a real OF option instead of Margot) Ownership definitely put us back in the dumpster diving mode that way.
  7. jmlease1
    I'm glad we're only giving him $1M, but this team has a history of overplaying underperforming veterans. I hope if he sucks they can move on from him, but I'm skeptical. Looking at the Baseball Savant stats on France, I'm not really seeing "unlucky" or that he really hit the ball all that hard. he was below average on average exit velocity, barrel %, LA sweet spot, squared up %...the only hitting stats where he cleared average (barely) were chase rate, whiff %, and K %. he hit the ball harder in Cincy than he did in Seattle and his numbers improved...but were still not good. There's a lot of blue on his charts. I hope I'm wrong. But I'm not seeing a lot to suggest this will work. At least with Santana you knew he'd play a really good 1B.
  8. jmlease1
    Coulombe probably doesn't fit in this category of "floor-raiser, no ceiling" the same way that Bader and France do. Sure, he's a soft-tosser (by modern standards, anyways) but he's also been very good when he's pitched the last couple of seasons. He's an injury risk, but finished the season healthy. I think if he'd been signed in December he'd simply be viewed as a guy filling a hole & role with the team. Bader and France are the ones that look like the veteran retreads that have mostly crapped out the last couple of seasons: Margot, Gallo, etc. These are guys that got too much PT, and kept getting run out there even after they were really sucking. Bader will provide defense...but Gallo provided good defense too, but after the first month or so became a disaster at the plate. France looks more like Margot: poor offense, no defense...why?!? And now we've filled up the roster with MLB contracts for guys that can't be dropped without simply eating the money or praying that someone else might take them off our hands. That makes it more likely that no significant trade happens, IMHO. I liked the Twins floor-raising strategy when we were running so thin on the roster that we simply didn't have enough MLB-capable players in the organization in multiple roles. Not giving innings or ABs to bad players is a floor-raising move that can add wins pretty quickly and relatively cheaply. But in this case, I'm questioning whether we're adding decent MLB players or just shuffling around who our "bad" players are. Raising the floor is great, but did we actually do it, or did we just add poor MLB veterans to take ABs from younger players in the organization that haven't proven themselves yet but were about the same level of meh? I mean, Bader's an improvement over Margot, because even if he can't hit either he'll play better defense. But he's more expensive and still might not be good because of his unimpressive performance at the plate. France? I don't know that he's actually better than anyone on the roster. But when you only shop in the dented can isle, I guess that's what you get. Thanks, Pohlads.
  9. jmlease1
    Julien's been a better player more recently than Ty France has.
  10. jmlease1
    Miranda and Kiersey don't belong in the same sentence here, though. miranda put up 1.7 bWAR last season with a 112 OPS+. He's been a good hitter 2 of the last 3 season in MLB, despite his injury issues. Kiersey got a cup of coffee in MLB for the first time last season and is older than Miranda. Miranda should not be seen as a fringe roster player, especially for the Twins, who need hitting.
  11. jmlease1
    Is it an indictment of Julien or Miranda? Think it's a bigger swipe at Miranda. France's 2023 wasn't good. His best offensive skill was getting hit by a pitch.
  12. jmlease1
    Terrible signing. France sucked last season. he wasn't good the year before that. It's been 3 years since he hit, he doesn't profile as a good platoon player, he's not good defensively...why are we wasting a roster spot on him? I hope I'm wrong about Ty France, but I doubt it. this looks like a zero-upside move. Much rather have Miranda & Julien with a side of Castro filling in at 1B than run out this washed up retread. Only thing he seems to have going for him at this point is health.
  13. jmlease1
    I like nothing about this signing. France hasn't hit since 2022, was an undeserving all-star who rode 2 hot months into getting a nod, isn't a very good defender, and doesn't even profile as a platoon player. Unless Miranda is hurt, I'd much rather have Miranda out at 1B. I hope he hasn't been promised the starting job (but I'm probably wrong) and if he stinks (which is likely) I hope the Twins are willing to cut their losses on the crappy veteran for once rather than keep running them out there hoping to recoup value. but I doubt it. Basically, I hope I'm wrong about Ty France. but I don't think I am.
  14. jmlease1
    It's interesting how quick some people are to give up on Julien. Dude was 7th in RoY voting in 2023, and deserved it. He's hit at every level of professional baseball, including a longer period of success in MLB than failure. One poor year (and it unquestionably was poor) and it seems like there are a lot of people ready to throw him on the scrap heap. I mean, people get mad about the Twins letting Rooker go, and he was worse than Julien, having shown far less MLB success than Julien, and couldn't stick with 2 others teams (including KC, who desperately needed a power-hitting corner OF/DH type at the time). And people still use him as an example for why the twins decision-making is bad. But we're supposed to give up on Julien?
  15. jmlease1
    I'm in on Miranda being the primary at 1B. If he's healthy he'll hit, and he should field the position well enough that the lower defense should be worth it. I'd tell him to focus on receiving throws as much as possible working with Correa (who I'd bet will be an awesome teacher and helper in getting him adjusted) and Lewis (who needs some help with his scattershot arm). And I'd be ok with Julien getting the first chance at backing up 1B (and 2B) with a little DH-ing in there. he might not be as good a hitter as he was in 2023, but he's better than he was in 2024. Rather see either get a chance over bringing in another washed up vet with little chance of upside and a big chance at falling through the floor.
  16. jmlease1
    It's always good to have important players not be coming off surgery. Even a "minor" procedure is still something. I'm sure it's a huge relief to Buxton and Lewis to not be just in rehab mode. I'll be very interested to see how Ryan is doing: it's the first real injury he's had, and hopefully it doesn't become a pattern or anything. If he's fully healthy and ready to go on Opening Day it'll be a big boost. I'm a big fan of his and him going down was a significant blow last season. back injuries/conditions are always a little tricky, so it's definitely worth monitoring Miranda and Lee to see how they're doing. I suspect both would have gotten shut down last season if a) there had been other options, and b) it wasn't the end of the year. Hopefully both are feeling strong and healthy. Pre-season health reports are always a little bit shady; "best shape of my life" is such a cliché at this point. That said, it is notable that the Twins have fewer key guys coming off off-season surgery.
  17. jmlease1
    There's some interesting prospects on the NRI list. Looking forward to seeing how Morris and Lewis look on the mound. While I don't expect either to be among the first called up to start for the Twins if/when injuries or ineffectiveness strikes in the rotation, both pitched well enough last season to be legitimate options in 2025 if needed. They should be fun to track in Saint Paul. Keaschall will be interesting. he had a great season going even while fighting the elbow injury, so I'm looking forward to seeing how his recovery has gone. I suspect that's part of why he's getting the invite: Twins may want their MLB training staff monitoring his recovery? Hitters do come back faster from TJ for sure, but I suspect we'll be seeing him at 2B and the OF mostly rather than testing his arm too much at 3B or SS. I'm not too fussed about Eeles or McCusker or even Walker Jenkins not getting an invite to MLB camp. If Eeles keeps showing good power production to go with his other basket of hitting skills, he'll get his opportunity and more time in AAA makes sense. Same goes for McCusker, really. If he hits, he'll get a chance but he hasn't even played 30 games in AAA yet. Jenkins will be here soon: he'll start at AA and the only thing that will keep him from AAA this season is himself. I expect to see him in Saint Paul around midseason. Oodles of talent, seems to have plenty of drive and work ethic. Please stay healthy! He's doing great for a guy who is just turning 20.
  18. jmlease1
    I think Castro still has a lot of value, even if he's no longer the first choice to backup CF or SS (he wouldn't be my pick either for those positions: Bader is the clear backup in CF and should be, and I'd rather see Lee step in/back up Correa). Castro's value is still tied to his versatility and if he shows he can play a good 1B makes him a high quality bench player. Being able to pinch hit or pinch run Castro into 6 different positions without needing to make a corresponding move for defensive purposes is really valuable when teams are only carrying a 4 man bench. He's not a great hitter and between injuries and maybe a little over-exposure got ground down in the second half last season; he's probably best suited to get 120-130 games and 330-375 ABs in a season rather than 150+ and 550+, exploiting that versatility and using his speed. I wish he could hit a bit better from the right side, but his splits are still decent enough that he's a reasonable switch-hitter. But I think the Twins are making a bad choice with their limited roster spots to pick up a backup SS unless it's someone they can stash in AAA as a "break glass in case of emergency". I'd much rather have Willi Castro on the bench than any of the yahoos left on the market at SS and the salary for Castro still more than matches the production. But nobody is untouchable, really, and if the Twins are able to package Castro and Paddack and a prospect for a significant bat...so be it.
  19. jmlease1
    I think the front office and manager are in lockstep about some of these overarching in-game strategies for lineups; assigning Rocco the blame for what was an organizational decision to try and jump on teams and generate a big inning earlier in the game through a platoon advantage seems silly to me. That said, I thought it was vastly over-utilized last season, so moving on from it seems to be a benefit to me. The concept wasn't terrible, but a) was overused, and b) didn't have effective enough RH hitters to execute it. (also? I think the Twins expected Margot to be able to play CF as he had in the past, and Farmer not being able to play SS as a bench player wasn't necessarily a problem; it's not like we were looking to sub for Correa when he was playing? the problem was neither of them hit, and Margot couldn't play defense worth a damn for the first time in his career.) I'd like Wallner and Larnach to get more opportunities to survive against LHP in the middle innings so they're available to hit in close and late situations against RHP. I think the bench is constructed more now to have speed/defense guys coming in late to hold leads rather than try to get them in the first place. I don't think this is a front office strategy designed to limit Rocco; I think this is collective action for a different direction based on the results of last season and the limits of the payroll and roster. Not for one second do I think that the front office makes moves designed to change Rocco's in-game strategy, because they decide these together. (It's why the "Fire Rocco!" crowd will be utterly disappointed with the next manager for as long as this front office team is in place...if you want drastic changes to the on-field decision-making, you'll need to clean house in the front office too)
  20. jmlease1
    Hard to know what the committees will do with relievers. Nathan not having a lengthy postseason record may hurt with that group, but if one of his old teammates or managers get on there to champion his case, then maybe. I think he's worthy; during his prime he was the 2nd best reliever in baseball, behind the guy who was probably the best reliever of all-time. But there are still those who don't think relief pitchers deserve to be in there at all. Torii was an excellent player, but isn't Hall-worthy. His GG's got...questionable, so him just having a ton of them might not help like people might think. He was very good for a long time, but I don't think he gets any real ascent under the BWAA, and after that he'll have to compete with other CFs that probably should have gotten more attention (Edmonds, Lofton). He's quite literally the epitome of Hall of Very Good. Santana has the best case; his dominance was massive. Sabathia's admission doesn't help him at all, really: very different pitchers and different cases. Sabathia's has more to do with longevity, Santana's is all about peak value. Personally, I think Johan was inhumanly awesome enough for long enough that it shouldn't matter if he didn't have 3-4 more seasons in his 30's to pile up counting stats...but I'll admit to bias on Johan.
  21. jmlease1
    He's a fantastic story. I'm rooting like hell for him. I hope he keeps crushing the ball in AAA, playing good defense, and pushes his way on to the 26-man roster. I have no problem with him starting the season in AAA; he had a great season but it's not like he's shown it over a couple of seasons in pro ball. It's a fairly small sample at the high minors. If he keeps hitting like this, he'll get a chance.
  22. jmlease1
    I'm utterly uninterested in either of these guys on the 26-man roster. if one of them wants to sign a deal that lets them go to AAA on a MLB-level salary to serve as insurance if Correa misses extended time? fine. But otherwise...nah. I get that Willi Castro might not really be an acceptable SS at this point, but Brooks Lee is. he can certainly handle the backup innings. DeJong started out well and had a great 2019. He's been in decline ever since. there's a reason he's bouncing around the league now. Urias looks like a total mess right now, and him not cracking the Mendoza line since 2022 is a problem. his defense (such as it is) peaked right at the same time as his offense, which makes me think he might be one of those guys that carries every AB with him on to the field. I mean, if you're not going to play Castro at SS, adding one makes some theoretical sense, and the only guy you're pushing out here is Austin Martin who hasn't exactly demanded a spot. But I'd rather ride with Brooks Lee and give younger guys a shot than bring in this kind of veteran, who if they stink we will hang on to for too long, hoping that we'll recoup some value before the end. Like many teams, the Twins do poorly on the sunk cost fallacy and adding guys like this gives them more chances to blow it...
  23. jmlease1
    I think this is probably right for the 26-man projection, but I could see Gasper making it if he looks good in spring training and the Twins want Lee playing every day, especially if Julien looks like he's gotten back to the 2023 version. Pitching staff is probably right as well; if they didn't think Castellano was worth a bullpen slot, they wouldn't have picked him, and I think Stewart starts on the IL. Rotation is: Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, and Paddack (for now). Bullpen hierarchy is probably: Duran, Jax, Sands, Coulombe, Alcala, Tonkin, Topa, and Castellano. Lineup: C: Jeffers, 1B: Miranda, 2B: Lee, SS: Correa, 3B: Lewis, LF: Larnach, CF: Buxton, RF: Wallner, DH: Julien? Bench of Vazquez, Castro, Bader, and Martin. Batting order will be interesting. I'm not sure who leads off here? Maybe it's Julien, Correa, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Larnach, Jeffers, Miranda, Lee? Julien sees a fair number of pitches, takes walks, and runs the bases pretty well (good SB numbers in the minors too). (Clearly, I'm not nearly as ready to give up on Julien as some are around here.)
  24. jmlease1
    I think there's a huge advantage to not having it be a black hole offensively, but it wasn't the end of the world in 2024 to be sure. CLE had worse offense from their regular CF than Bader (and their backups weren't any better) and they did just fine, PHI was even worse getting production at CF and they were one of the best teams in baseball. NYM went to the NLCS and their primary CF was...Bader. Right now, if you're getting close to league average hitting and good defense from your CF, you're doing pretty well. It's why Christian Vazquez still has value even though he's been a pretty bad hitter lately: so few catchers are hitting much these days that a good defender who doesn't embarrass themselves at the plate still gets work. Same principles are applying in CF now. If Bader shows a little improvement at the plate, or simply hits LHP well consistently, then he can be a useful player that keeps Castro from having to play in CF, gives Larnach/Wallner breaks against LHP, improves the OF defense in late & close games. My concern is that he's about to turn 31, hasn't had an OBP over .300 or a SLG over .400 since 2021. He didn't hit LHP particularly well last season, but he also only had 137 ABs against them; he crushed them the season before but it was an even smaller sample. I think it's a fair bet to look to career splits, but you never know. This move raises the floor a bit and provides useful insurance against a significant Buxton injury. But I think that's about it, which is why I'm a little unimpressed with the deployment of very limited resources here.
  25. jmlease1
    Canha is only perfect in that he's likely to be cheap and leftover. I mean, there's nothing wrong with him per se, but he raises the floor (maybe) and not the ceiling. On a 1 year deal for $3-4M, he's...fine? Fairly low risk, might have a bounce back year left in him where he get the SLG% back to around .400 and lands a solid enough OPS of .740, decent defender, solid veteran. but is that going to be better than what we could get from the younger guys, as noted above? Jose Ramirez is going to out-hit him if healthy. Michael Helman might be a better option. Doesn't really move the needle for me
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