jmlease1

When you look at the total body of work in 2024, the Twins bullpen was quite good, and they're bringing back every key contributor from last season. Why wouldn't they be highly ranked and well-regarded? Recency bias is clearly driving down some people's opinion of the bullpen; they had some struggles down the stretch along with every other part of the team not named Buxton or Correa, with some high profile blowups (Jorge Alcala, are your ears burning?). But that doesn't mean they're bad, especially in the context of the rest of the league. Jax was elite last year, Duran was only good, but still has all the tools to be great again. Sands came on strong and seems to have found himself as a reliever, and while Alcala had a couple of bad blowups, his overall season was quite good. That's a very strong foundation for a bullpen, with 4 pitchers that can be used in high-leverage situations. Add in the rest of the options (Varland, Topa, Stewart, Castellano, Tonkin) and the Twins should have a strong bullpen that's missing only one element: a trusted LHP. But after the Okert Experience maybe it's not as critical to get a lefty out when the next 2 righties blow you up, especially when you have excellent RHP that can get LH out quite well. I'd like to see them add a LHP who doesn't get crushed by every RH who can hold a bat, but that's literally the only hole in this bullpen. Most teams are trying to figure out if they have enough backend guys, trying out a new closer, or hoping that 2-3 guys can handle the role. Twins biggest barrier is whether they can get & keep guys like Stewart & Topa healthy enough to get value out of them...and they have options already behind them. It's a good group.

Might not be the Ishbia Brothers (they do fit the mold for what MLB wants, though), but why on earth would MLB want to be in business with Lore & A-Rod as owners after the Timberwolves purchase has been such a debacle? The fact that well into the sale process, where dates and numbers were locked in the two of them were scrambling around at the deadline to get new investment in their ownership group in order to have the capital to complete the sale is a massive, massive red flag. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a group with a local rich guy type backed up by a big time venture capital group be part of the bidding (though we might not hear about it officially); a stake in a pro sports team is a fairly safe place to stash a big pile of cash with respectable returns that isn't that hard to cash out 10 years down the road. but I expect that MLB has made it clear to the Pohlads that if they want this approved whomever they pick will need to fit MLB's profile too. And they're going to want a group with serious resources who can invest in the team, support MLB's streaming package, and not chase short term pickups for cash-flow reasons. YMMV on whether that's good for the Twins, MLB, and MN baseball fans?

I'll be very curious to see if a local group emerges publicly and who might head it up. It would be nice for fans to be able to put some names to some of these bidders, especially when there's clearly more than a few. I'm sure that some of the people nosing around aren't going to end up being that serious; I'll bet there's a couple who got in early hoping the price might be coming in low since it's Minnesota and not a NE or California team. But not seeing much for names other than the Ishbia Brothers. There are some very rich people in MN or with MN ties. I'm sure at least one will be part of some kind of coalition. (Vance Opperman? But Vance is a hockey guy and already a minority owner in the Wild. Any of the Cargills? Might be too busy trying to buy up Park Point in Duluth. Hmmm...)

I think there's zero chance of that one happening. regardless of what you think of the Timberwolves sale mess (Neither Glen nor Lore/A-Rod have covered themselves in glory) one of the things that it has shown is that Lore/A-Rod don't have the same kind of money that guys like the Ishbias do. MLB isn't going to have any interest in bringing in new ownership that might have questions about cash flow, needs to have additional venture capital partners just to make the purchase, etc. They're going to ensure that the sale goes to people who have the money side locked down tight. the only reason the Wolves deal went down with Lore/A-Rod in the first place was because Glen was trying to sell without having to leave. no way the twins sale goes like that.

It's always important to remember that when a former player or other local celebrity is introduced as part of the "ownership group" their actual stake in the enterprise is almost always rather tiny. they won't be decision-makers.

It's true, Bill Pohlad almost certainly doesn't have the ability to produce or direct like he has without the money he inherited. It's much easier to work in a creative field when you're backed up by a huge sum of inherited wealth that allows you to risk huge sums of money without ever having to worry about where your next meal is coming from or whether you'll get to keep your house. It doesn't change anything about how the Pohlad wealth came about or what Carl's tactics were as a businessman. The fact that most billionaires have similar unsavory stories about how they clawed their way to the top of the heap doesn't make it ok or good, either.

here's the thing about the successes you've cited, though: Lopez was a good starter in MLB in 2018 (on a bad team). even in 2019 (when he wasn't good) he was better than Jax ever was as an MLB starter. Lugo wasn't great in 2016, but was a pretty solid starter for the Mets when they moved him into the rotation. He wasn't great in 2017 and was more inconsistent...but was still more successful than Jax was in 2021 when he was starting. both of those guys had a lot more success in the rotation than Jax ever did before moving to the bullpen. You've said it yourself that the Mets trying this with Clay Holmes is foolish: what makes the Twins trying this with Jax better? Crochet is the real outlier, having little experience as a starter at all. but he's also 26, not 30. there's also an opportunity cost involved here: if you move Jax into the rotation, how many starts do you have to go before waving it off if it doesn't work? 5? (bet that wouldn't be enough to keep Jax happy, and people would be screaming about the Twins not giving him a real chance). 10? 20? How many games do you cost your team because Jax put up a 5.10 ERA and couldn't get into the 6th inning often? How many games are you losing because Jax isn't available in the bullpen again until June and you sent out Castellano for the missing innings with Alcala and Sands having to take more high leverage work? It's a big risk, with real downside, and a fairly low chance of success.

Twins 8th starting pitcher is probably Adams or Raya Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, Paddack, Festa, Matthews, Adams, Raya, Lewis, Morris are probably the top guys right now if Paddack a) stays with the Twins, and b) stays in the rotation. Adams & Raya are both on the 40-man, so they'll get a chance before Lewis or Morris. Which one would get tapped first? No idea, could be either. Dobnak is well out of the Twins plans as a starter, and Headrick probably only gets a chance as a reliever. But the prediction of Griffin Jax as a #2 starter presumes a lot for a guy who a) was not a good starter before, b) hasn't started in several years, and c) improved substantially when he was able to start throwing max effort in shorter stints. Calling him a potential ace is beyond optimistic. the argument against Jax going to the rotation isn't about the depth the Twins have there (although they do have a lot of starting pitching prospects that frankly have a greater likelihood of success as a starter than Jax at this point), it's about whether there's much chance to take an elite reliever and have him be successful as a starter, when he wasn't before and unquestionably some of his improvement as a pitcher in the last couple of years is because of his change in role.

This is a 90's "innovation" from the LaRussa school but I'm not sure there's much data to back it up. It kicked off a 25+ year run where teams had very structured bullpens where you had one reliever designated as your closer (supposedly your best reliever) who came in for the 9th inning in a save situation, and that was about the only time you saw them. Your next 2 best pitchers were the "set-up" guys, who came in for the 7th and 8th innings when the team had a lead that would get you to a save situation. Etc etc. but before that, relievers were used much differently: your best reliever in the 70's was used as a "fireman" to shut down a team's best hitters late in the game, or coming in with runners on base to snuff out a rally. I think what we're seeing now is that teams are realizing that their best relievers have more impact when they're deployed more like firemen rather than always trying to hold your best reliever for the 9th inning when you have a lead. Do relievers need to have a very proscribed role to be successful, or did a generation of relievers grow up on that being the norm? Can't a pitcher develop a routine where they can start to prepare to get into a game when the other team's best hitters are coming up in the 7th? Can't you challenge a pitcher's mentality and tell them "we want you taking down the other team's best hitters, because we know you're the guy to do it"? I'd much rather have Duran or Jax facing 3-4-5 on the other team in the 7th or 8th in a close game than 7-8-9 in the 9th. and I want my best relievers pitching, not being held back for a save situation that might never come if my 5th best guy coughed up the lead in the 7th.

Listen, I don't want another Margot either, but you're overrating Keirsey, who didn't break out until he repeated AA at 26 in 2023 (when he was 1.6 years older than the average player in the league). He got promoted to AAA in that year and was ok at the plate. Last season was the first time he "proved" himself in AAA at 27, which earned him a cup of coffee in MLB. This isn't someone who was dominating the minors and the Twins just ignored it or held him back: he hasn't been that good. Keirsey has good speed and would be a good defensive cover in CF and would add value as a late-inning defensive replacement in the corners too. but he hasn't proven he can hit in MLB, and his minor league experience isn't that impressive. The .845 OPS in saint Paul last season looks great, until you realize the team OPS last season was .778. or that Ed Julien, who was a total mess at the plate last season still pumped out an .800 OPS in AAA. Or that Austin Martin had the same kind of OPS that Keirsey did. I'd love for him to be a late-bloomer and be able to slot in as a defensive-minded 4th OF who could hit around league average, but the jump from AAA to MLB is very difficult and Keirsey hasn't proven anything.

At this point, arguing against Wallner really means saying that his 2024 and his 2023 were both flukes. Which I'm sure some people will do, just because they can stand how often he strikes out, but considering his actual production in his time in MLB he's awfully effective. The rankings overall look ok; I would argue that slotting Castro at DH is wrong, even if he's the most likely player to get 400+ ABs in 2025 among the remaining position players listed: he just isn't actually going to DH. And without him as the "10th starter" super-utility guy the Twins bench isn't that strong out the gate. Julien should be listed as the DH, and Castro with the bench guys. And while I would lower our ratings at DH as a result (despite still believing in a bounceback season for Julien), the overall OF/DH/Bench ratings for the Twins are pretty good for the division. I think people forget just how good Buxton is and how much he a) actually played last season, b) didn't need a surgery in the offseason this year, and c) really produced for the lineup including being one of the only guys hitting down the stretch.

The deregulation of the airline industry is hailed as a huge victory by business leaders, and anti-government regulation types, but it's fairly clear that the only people it helped were the very wealthy investor class and Pohlad-esque oligarchs. Air travel today is not good, and for decades has been an uncomfortable experience where passengers are treated more like cattle than customers. Thanks, Carl.

I prefer him staying in the bullpen: he's been great there, and is looking like a reliever who can be consistently good-to-great, which is where you really get value IMHO. As a starter, he simply wasn't very good. I realize that he's a better pitcher now than he was back then, and has improved his offerings and ability to pitch...but part of what has led to his success in the bullpen is the ability to go max effort and increase that velocity. Hard for me to believe that he can maintain that velocity through 5-6+ innings and for 30+ starts in a season, or that his deadly slider won't become less deadly when players get to see it a second or third time in a game. I think he's going to be a key part of a potentially very good bullpen in 2025, and I'm glad he's staying there. Best choice for everyone.

This is why they settled before actually going to arbitration, so they wouldn't risk fracturing a relationship. It's likely part of why the Twins parted ways with Berrios after actually going through arbitration, knowing that he may have been holding the team's salary victory against them as it related to free agency. In these cases, the team settled with the players directly on numbers the players accepted, rather than them being forced down their throat by an arbitrator after going through the process of hearing the team tell the arbitrator why the player actually sucked a lot more. They never actually got to arbitration. This was negotiated.

because their time with the twins overlapped significantly as international signings? moreover, people (around here at least) fairly consistently compared their contributions to the twins from 2016-2022, especially in like 2021, where people gave Kepler a pass at the plate and complained about Sano all the time. Kepler's an interesting case, where the Twins got a ton of value out of him and he had a fine career here, but the 2019 season was such an outlier that it was easy to keep wondering why that never happened again, or to expect that he could do it over. Kepler also always looked great out there: big, strong, fast with a lovely looking swing. He ended up being a solid starter, but it often felt like there was more to unlock that simply never happened. Sano's biggest problem was the injuries. (The decision to try and move him to the OF in 2016 was also remarkably dumb) Add that to his already not great defense and suddenly he's stuck at DH in order to just get on the field, but even then, the leg injuries took his base out from under him. (I'm a little amazed he managed to hit as much as he did in 2021). The weight problems didn't help, I'm sure. The decision to try him in RF after never playing there in order to get more time for Plouffe, Escobar, and Nunez (immortals all) at 3B? If ever there was a developmental mistake it was that one. I think if sano's seasons had been in a different order, people would feel better about him. They're probably wouldn't treat his injuries as personal failings as much if he'd had 2015, 2017, and 2019 all in a row and then had the major knee injury and a fall off. but who knows. The fact that he struck out a lot will always stick in the craw for some Twins fans.

it's less of a spread if you're only thinking about Gallo circa 2017-2021, rather than the version we've seen over the last couple of seasons. Gallo was a good player in Texas! And while Soto as a hitter is an insanely high ceiling, the fact that Soto is an increasingly poor defender, what you're really talking about for a range is "quality starter/borderline all-star" to "all-star to MVP". It's very optimistic, in that projecting any player who hasn't made it to MLB yet to be an all-star is terribly optimistic...but the talent is there. he's been a consensus top 100 prospect 2 years in a row, and should be again this season. I think putting even a top end comp to Soto is going too far, just because Soto has been so insanely good as a hitter immediately. Comping Emma to Soto or Votto (even if there are some stylistic and approach similarities) is comping against Hall of Fame level players. nice to dream about, but exceptionally unlikely. But a young Gallo or Adam Dunn + defense is a) not a bad comp, b) would be a very valuable player, and c) not ridiculous.

Tonkin does seem like a DFA choice if they need a spot. is Headrick on the 40-man right now? I'd drop him before Canterino. Helman is definitely a guy that could slide through waivers. Gasper's already passed through Rule 5, so seems like a fit too. feels like there's some room to work without too much trouble.

It's depressing that some of the best news we've had all off-season is that management chiseled $2.5M out of the players in avoiding arbitration. Blegh. I guess it's better than needing to dump salary, but yuck. I hope new ownership a) does better in raising revenue without screwing fans on tickets, b) invests in the team that increases so nicely in value year over year whether they're good or not, and c) gives a damn about the on-field product at least as much as their cash flow. Pohlads can go count their dollars in their mansions and stay out of baseball.

We'll see on Julien. He had a bad enough season in 2024 that it's more than fair to be skeptical...but was also good enough in 2023 that it's a little crazy to consign him to the dust heap already. Hard to know whether or not Lewis will be a good fit at 2B, but he does have the glove to be good there, and it might suit his arm better. But Brooks Lee has looked just fine defensively at either 2B or 3B (he was a more than acceptable backup to Correa at SS too) and his MiLB history shows a player who makes good contact, gets on base, and has some pop in his bat. It's a small sample, but he out-hit Eeles in AAA last season. If he's healthy, I expect him to hit and defend at whatever infield spot the Twins land him on. I like Keaschall a lot, but expecting a player coming off a significant injury who has never played above AA to be ready for MLB is...optimistic. he didn't exactly play much 2B last season and was limited in the field because of the elbow injury. I would suggest he's not a better defender at 2B than Lee at this point, but we'll see how he does once he's healthy and can throw again.

the story of carl Pohlad and the transit system in the Twin Cities is your basic vulture capitalism. Exploit an asset as much as possible for your own gains and then dump it on someone else (preferably at a profit). Could this be the story of the Twins? (I'm jumping ahead) This is very good stuff, most people probably don't know the history. While I knew the banking sagas, I didn't know the transit tale and how Carl helped screw over public transportation in the TC. (Not that there weren't many culpable bastards...)

why is this the worst division in baseball? Sure looks like the AL West to me. Oakland still stinks, the Angels horribly run and a mess, Texas is counting on a bunch of ancient pitchers and has real lineup problems, and who exactly fears Seattle? heck, even Houston ain't what they used to be. yes, CWS are awful, almost certainly the worst team in baseball again, but otherwise the AL Central looks much more competitive than the AL West.

I'm a little baffled by the push for Eeles I keep seeing on this board. is it just because he's so new to the organization that he hasn't had much chance to struggle yet? is it because he's short and doesn't fit a mold? is it because he doesn't strike out all that much? I mean, people are ready to throw Ed Julien (who put up 2.6 bWAR as a rookie with a 130 OPS+) out with the trash after last season and seem to want the Twins to hand 2B to Payton Eeles who has 156 games as a professional, with nearly 1/3 in the Independent leagues. he's a great story, potentially a great find, and if he were the starting 2B for the Twins today you'd have to put their 2B 5th in the AL Central, because betting on a player to go from the Independent leagues to starting MLB 2B is pretty wild.

it'd be a LOT more athleticism? Dunn was a notably terrible defensively player basically everywhere; dude had a terrific season at the plate in 2009 (144 OPS+? yes, please!) and gave it all back in the field and then some. would have done less damage if he's just been a DH his whole career. Emma is a much better OF. But I could live with Dunn's offensive production and quality defense. He's a fascinating case. Wonder if the electronic strike zone will make a difference for a player like him, with tremendous discipline and a very strong understanding of the zone. You have to wonder if the times Ed Julien got rung up on pitches that were not strikes messed him up the most...

Tied for 2nd is basically 3rd? Right now I think it's very fair to have KC on top and the Twins and Guardians battling for #2. (and is it a weak division, or have we just been trained to think of it as weak? CWS might be the worst team in MLB, but no one else is a pushover) why do you think our RP won't be well-rated? there's depth and top-end quality in our bullpen. The only thing we don't have is a proven LH specialist (which may be overrated anyways). It's a borderline playoff team because they were borderline last season, haven't lost much, and have top end talent (Correa, Buxton, Lopez) high ceiling younger players (Lewis, Lee) and quality throughout the squad (Wallner, Jeffers, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax) that would slot in for most other playoff teams. If they end up 2nd or 3rd in the division at almost every position and the division is good...that's a team without a lot of weaknesses.

Seems like a fairly reasonable assessment of where the Division stands for infielders right now. A few things that popped out for me: 1B is pretty rotten in the AL central right now: it's hard not to pick Cleveland #1 there, but they're also hoping for Santana to hold off Father Time for yet another year. No one is really covering themselves in glory here 2B shows the impact that a quality offseason move can make: India is an excellent fit for KC. Twins could do quite well here, but it's unproven 3B drops off fast after Ramirez, even if you believe in Royce (which I do). And after Royce it could get quite ugly for the rest of the division SS should be deeper, but holy cow Baez has utterly imploded in Detroit. Oof. 3 more years of that contract is pretty gross. C is the deepest position in the AL central infield. Didn't have that on my bingo card, but sure looks accurate, especially if you like Teel (which I do) for CWS. It'll be very interesting to see where we think of the Twins at 2B and 3B at the end of the season. depending on health & development, we could be ecstatic...or searching for answers.