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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Kaelen & Gabby just keep rolling in Wichita! Really fun to see. It's going to be hard to keep them from getting a look in AAA this season at this rate, and I love seeing prospects push for advancement by being awesome. Nice day from Billy Amick; glad to see he's looking healthy again and maybe finding a groove. he was really hot out the gate before going down with an injury, and it's taken him a while to get back on the field and get it going again, but he's off to a nice start in July. It'll be interesting to see if he can stick at 3B, but I think it's smart to have him splitting time at 1B, especially with all the infield talent we still have a Cedar Rapids. De Andrade is having a solid bounce back season after a bit of a lost year with injuries. I suspect we'd be talking about him a bit more if it wasn't for guys like Culpepper and DeBarge getting so much (deserved) attention. He's playing some SS again, and he's shown solid pop in his bat. But he's been inconsistent at the plate: great april, not so good may. great june, wobbled in july so far. I think we're seeing why he didn't get an early promotion, and he's still very young; he may be more experienced as a professional, but he's a full year younger than Culpepper.
  2. jmlease1
    Very nice win. I got pretty nervous in the 4th with Festa who looked like he was going to throw the lead away, but while he wobbled he didn't implode. Might be an important step for him. He had some very nice moments and if he can keep from getting too wild you can see exactly why the Twins continue to have faith in him. Bullpen was excellent. Really liked how efficient they were in finishing off the game too. This is why many of us thought we could have a top-flight bullpen this season, and if Sands and Topa get locked in as well (and Sands has looked good since being part of the June Swoon) then it's an awfully deep and good bullpen even if the last spot has been filler. Be great if Correa and Wallner get hot, and they looked good tonight. Jeffers has been on a nice run too. But have to hope this doesn't linger for Buxton (thrilled nothing is broken, was really worried about that!) because while Bader can replace his defense he simply doesn't have Buck's upside on offense. Bader's been a nice pickup with some big hits, but he's a streaky offensive player who can look awful quickly at the plate. Go for the sweep! Cubs are a good team, so this has been a very nice series. Holding down the team leading MLB in scoring is a nice feat for the pitching after a rotten June. Keep it up! Pablo and Zebby are coming...
  3. jmlease1
    Well deserved. I'm a big fan of Ryan, nice to see him get the recognition he's earned.
  4. jmlease1
    I'd be furious, even if we got a big haul...because the haul is almost certainly going to be prospects that are 2-4 years away. Which means plenty of time for things to go sideways and no guarantees. I want Ryan extended, not traded. I also always feel like a lot of the teams they speculate on being interested in a player like Ryan expect to overhype their prospects they send back and get our best players for a bag of magic beans. I also feel like with the ownership situation in flux that making a Ryan move is...difficult. And frankly, it's one you make if you're really tearing things down, so Duran and/or Jax would need to go to, along with a bunch of other guys. Does that make sense when we don't know who owns the club next season
  5. jmlease1
    If they were destroying his confidence, wouldn't he be getting worse, not better? Which is more likely to wreck his confidence, leaving after pitching 5 excellent innings and not getting to throw in the 6th (when we have a quality bullpen) or getting rocked and coming away with no chance for the win? Let's get him some additional early run support, I guarantee you he'll get more chances at pitching the third time through the order. I would have preferred SWR went out for the 6th against the Cubs, but facing an excellent lineup with a slim lead, while having a rested bullpen and needing every win it can find right now, I can understand why they're not making developmental moves with a young starting pitcher and playing straight up for the win.
  6. jmlease1
    When Keaschall gets back it'll be a lot easier to only have 1 of Larnach/Wallner/Clemens in the lineup I think against LH starters. Hopefully that helps a bit. Larnach is doing a very nice job against RHP and since that's the more common sight, he can certainly add to the lineup. No, he's not a great defender, but he's also not a butcher. But unfortunately he looks like a guy who really needs to stay in a platoon role. I wouldn't yank him all the time against the first LH reliever you see in the 5th or 6th inning, but he also shouldn't expect to bat against a LH reliever in a close and late situation, or start often against a LHP unless they're trying an opener. Larnach has been decent. Right now we need a little more than that, though.
  7. jmlease1
    I was intrigued by Severino, but his lack of a defensive position (he apparently was bad everywhere they tried him) and increasingly poor performances at the plate in AAA doomed him. Poor contact rates, and increasingly looked like a guess hitter I think. That last step is a really big one. I'm impressed with how well Sabato continues to do in AAA. He hasn't missed a beat since moving up and has kept his K-rate very manageable. It's taken him quite a while, but maybe he's figured it out? We always knew he had massive power potential, and he had quality patience even when he was struggling to hit, but he seems to have figured out his contact issues, which was clearly holding him back. Wonder how his defense at 1B is going? Kaelen and GG are doing everything you could ask for at their age and point in development. I'll be very interested to see what the national guys think of GG when they do their prospect updates and see if any of them have substantially changed their thinking on him. Bohorquez did exactly what you'd hope he'd do coming off a strong outing: repeating it! Happy to see him over 60% on his strike %. If he's starting to master things to the point where he can consistently throw strikes, then he's going to be very interesting. That's 3 good outings out of 4 now (I like that they're doing Game Score for minor league pitchers; it's nice shorthand for evaluating a starter's outing) and while they're clearly keeping him on a 60-75 pitch count/5 inning max right now that seems appropriate for a guy who can get wild and might have a 25 pitch inning. He's certainly got the stuff to be intriguing; I'd say Ft. Myers is a good place for him. He's still pretty inexperienced, but he's showing real improvement right now.
  8. jmlease1
    Great news, hope he heads out on that rehab assignment soon! Keeping my fingers crossed for no setbacks. I really like Zebby, and I think he's got a chance to be a rotation stalwart. Rotten timing on his injury, but what can you do? BTW, this is a great thing about having the AAA affiliate in Saint Paul: not too hard to go check out a guy on a rehab!
  9. jmlease1
    I think ownership is going to keep things status quo until they sell the team (while normally I would think they might push some contract dumps, they won't do anything that gives ammo to a prospective buyer saying "this team ain't worth what you're asking, especially after you dumped the roster!") and that's not great for this trade deadline. Until the team is sold, things are going to be a bit directionless. Outside of Keaschall, I don't know how much impact any of the options on this list will have the opportunity to make, absent more injuries in MLB. Keaschall is likely to take Kiersey's spot (thank god), but Rodriguez isn't going to get a chance unless someone gets hurt...and he stays healthy himself. And frankly, Martin is much more likely to get a call-up right now. Raya might get a shot if the Twins can't patch it up until Zebby comes back, but I wouldn't expect him to stick right now and he wobbled enough early on that I'm sure the team wants to see more consistency from him before bringing him into MLB. Prielipp certainly has the stuff to pitch in MLB in the bullpen right now (and is likely better than Wentz from the jump) but I just don't see this front office going that direction absent another injury to Coulombe and Funderburk looking unacceptable. The lineup is basically healthy right now, the bullpen is healthy, and I'm not seeing the Twins excited about jumping Raya into the rotation, which is the only area where health is an issue right now. Absent some moves at the deadline I just don't see a lot of roster space. If they sell off Castro (which is complicated: he's likely gone next season under this ownership, but has good value right now. he'll have plenty of suitors, but is also one of the Twins better performing hitters right now.) it opens up the door for someone to come up and play...but it still seems more likely they'd drop Martin in. Moving France would open up time, but they seem to love France, hate losing veteran depth, and he costs little and brings back less. I think Gleeman & Bonnes are right: until the team is sold, we're caught in limbo, and it sucks unless the team goes on another big winning streak.
  10. jmlease1
    Please. every time he has a bad start you get people around here declaring that he's never going to be a quality MLB starter. Fortunately, Twins management is taking a longer view with him.
  11. jmlease1
    Which is worse for his career earning prospects, coming out after pitching 5 sterling innings or getting rocked for 3-4 runs in the 6th? His agent is probably thrilled the team is protecting him against going a 3rd time through the opponent batting order; he can sell hope without evidence to another team (or an arbiter) easier than poor results. I felt like SWR deserved to get a shot at the 6th, but the team is in such a marginal position that they can't afford developmental decisions at the MLB level like they were out of contention in late august or something. If they'd had a few more early runs, SWR gets the chance. I don't like the decision particularly, but I understand it. SWR pitched very well against a stacked lineup; Cubs are leading baseball in runs per game and sent out a lineup with 8 guys with an OPS above league average. While I disagreed with the decision to not let SWR get the 6th after controlling his pitch count so effectively and pitching so well, I'd rather spend my energy on praise for SWR than looks for reasons to bash the manager...especially when the decision worked out. The long lulls the offense gets into after looking like they're going to maybe take it to a starter early are frustrating. And even stacking the lineup, they're not hitting LHP very well. Fortunately, the Cubs threw a RHP out there and the team jumped him. Not complaining about the 8th inning explosion, just wish it was earlier.
  12. jmlease1
    well, every time people write SWR off, he seems to figure something out, make an adjustment, find some additional velocity, etc. So it would not surprise me if he dumps the change up and adapts a split to be a useful offspeed option. We sure do need it to work right now with Pablo & Zebby still on the mend.
  13. jmlease1
    Eeles is on the prospect hot sheet because people love his story and were constantly asking about him while he was out. He's a fun story, and if some of the power production he showed last season and in his rehab assignments comes back at AAA then he's a legit option to become a utility guy in MLB. I'm guessing that a lot of what we're seeing with the power outage in AAA this season is a result of the recovery from surgery (his good SLG in the rehab assignments is more about small sample size) not really being complete yet, but it could also be that pitchers have figured him out. We'll see where he is in a month or so. AAA is the right place for him, and as noted: Bride arrived because Keaschall, Lewis, Martin, Miranda were all hurt at the same time...and Eeles was still recovering from surgery. Do I think we held onto Bride too long? Yep, but Eeles was never an option to keeping Bride off the roster. All I really want for Walker Jenkins is good health for the rest of the season. I have nothing but confidence that his talent will play up if he's healthy. He sure looks healthy right now, and while I would be happy to see more power start showing, I'm loving that strikeout to walk ratio. His control of the strike zone at this age is really impressive, and it's a skill that will serve him well as the power develops. Bohorquez is an interesting prospect. We'll see if he can consistently find the plate for a while, because the stuff is certainly impressive. But he's been very wild, so I'm going to need to see more starts like this where he finds the zone and dominates the opposition. But not bad for age 20.
  14. jmlease1
    Not when he can't hit his weight in MLB. There's little to suggest that he's improved as a hitter at all, and it gets harder and harder to draw walks as you go up a level with no power to punish a pitcher for throwing a "get over" pitch. He's never finished a season with a SLG close to .400, and his BA this season is propped up by an unsustainable BABIP. Did he improve last season in the vaunted Dodgers farm system, away from the evils of the Twins supposedly dogmatic ways that were holding him back? He did not. OPS of .633, which is pretty poor. Yes, he's doing better this season to date, but he's had stretches like this before...and has always reverted to being an empty singles hitter who gets overwhelmed at the plate by quality pitchers who can locate their stuff. The glove plays, but he's profiling as a no-hit, all glove infielder and even at SS that's not enough to keep you on a roster in MLB. He's Christian Vazquez at a position where there are actual options, not utter desperation. Who would you rather have, Kaelen Culpepper or Noah Miller?
  15. jmlease1
    It's not an easy call, but I think I have Ryan as one of the 3, with deGrom and Eovaldi, though I go back and forth on Bubic vs Eovaldi; the 1.75 ERA is gaudy and the ERA+ of 216 is remarkable for Eovaldi...but the 77 innings is not. Ryan got snubbed in that he was more than worthy of pitching in the all-star game, but at the same time it's not like he's gotten passed over for selection by someone truly unworthy. Unfortunately, the fact that the Twins have swooned in June likely counted against him, along with playing in a smaller media market (of course, our media reach would be better if ownership hadn't been incompetent boobs with the team's media rights and so forth over the past decade, but that's a different issue)
  16. jmlease1
    I'll admit, I'm always a little blown away seeing pitchers throw so poorly to 1B. There's been several really wild ones this season on what should be a routine play (not just from the bullpen, either) and every time one goes flying past 1B with basically no chance I wonder "what in the hell is going on there?" It's got to be a mental thing where they start thinking about it, rather than just effing throwing the ball, but it's the sort of mistake that really sticks out and drives you batty. This series is one where the order of the games probably impacts our perception of the series too much; If we win game 1, lose game 2, and win game 3 to win the series, everyone probably feels pretty good about taking down a quality TB team (TB is consistently good these days, and they've been very good at retooling on the fly. they might have awful stadium issues, but their professional staff is excellent). Lose the last game when you're gunning for a sweep and it's a bit of a downer. I didn't hate the Bader signing when the Twins made it (though I was a little nervous about the money and whether he'd get overused in LF) but it's really been a good one. The defense has been as advertised, and the flair he shows out there is a nice, fun bonus. There's been enough big hits and the homers have more than compensated for additional Ks. Pretty good in a season when we haven't actually needed the Buxton insurance.
  17. jmlease1
    He's had a complicated season, I think. Just an awful start that's kept his overall numbers down, but until yesterday's breakout he'd been in a little mini-slump again to start July. His K rate and ability to make consistent contact is still a concern? A quick look at his splits shows he's pounding away at LHP, but really struggling vs RHP, and I think he needs to even that up a little just because there are so many more RHPs. But points to him for crawling out of a rotten start to make us think about him again. It's a nice collection of hitters going right now at Wichita, even with Sabato & Schobel getting promoted. Jenkins, Culpepper, GG, Fedko, Rosario, and Olivar are all looking good. Even Cossetti's having a nice bounce back season after a rotten 2024, though his low average at this level is still concerning and probably limiting, Ben Ross is looking like he's hit a AA wall, though.
  18. jmlease1
    I'd almost forgotten about Christian Macleod (there can be only one?), would not mind at all seeing a LHP move up the ranks and maybe be a rotation option going forward. It does feel like the Twins have a lot of "maybes" in the rotations at the higher levels in the minors, but no one who is really stepping forwards and dominating with consistency. But LHP has a lot of utility, so many this gets Macleod moving again. De Andrade is having a fine season and seems to have himself back on track after a lost season from injury. Great to see. A little surprised he's not playing SS, as I thought the Twins liked his defense there, but it seems that he's behind several players now on the pecking order there and looks like he's shifting over. But he's still a fine prospect.
  19. jmlease1
    I think the biggest difference between 2024 GG and 2025 GG is not about age as much as it's about health. He started out well in 2024, but missed about 6 weeks and never really got back on track. This season he's healthy and hitting. (I'm sure age and development mattered as well, but never discount the importance of being healthy) He's doing great this year. Love seeing him take his walks, and he's been a doubles machine. Since he's only 21, hopefully he has room for growth in the field and can get up higher than "acceptable".
  20. jmlease1
    Steamy day at the stadium today with some brief showers dropping in. It was very concerning when the Twins couldn't get more than 1 when the bases were loaded up; there was a fair amount of furor over the umpire refusing the call the balk, which cost the team a run. Started to feel like one of those games where the breaks weren't going to go the Twins way. We get a liner that looks like it's heading to left field and their SS manages to leap up and snare it. Similar play happens and the ball just goes over our fielder's glove. We have a couple of well-hit balls go tot eh warning track; they get an "excuse me" hit that end up going for a double. It was feeling like one of those games...but the Twins didn't quit on it, and Kody Klubbed one to the opposite field. Lovely play in the 9th. Buck works the walk (BTW, he should have had a hit in the first, not reaching on an error IMHO; that was a rocket and a tough play), Willi slashes a single, and Lee spots the 1B playing way off the line and drops down a lovely bunt. As soon as it got past the pitcher, the only hope was it rolling foul, but Lee placed it perfectly. Adams...didn't look good. Lot of hard contact. He limited the damage, but did not impress. He did miss some bats, even if he wasn't generating Ks, so maybe he gets another chance. But definitely a lot of loud contact and hard hit balls. Nice win.
  21. jmlease1
    Love seeing that from Walker Jenkins! Stay healthy, dude, because you are a player. Excellent to see Raya getting back on track. He really struggled early in the season, but he's looking a lot more like the top prospect he's been touted as. Considering where our starting pitching depth is right now, his success could end up being imprtant. DeBarge and GG with multi-hit games again. Ho hum. :P
  22. jmlease1
    A good win. The offense still needs work, but 4 was enough today. Paddack looked very good early, thought he might cruise. But he still did well enough on a hot day. Tough day for Correa at the plate. not great from Stewart either, was looking like it was his turn in the "player who's been good all year dorks it up" barrel, but the team pulled it out. Very nice game by Bader, who has wobbled at the plate a little lately. Whose hat/helmet comes off more, his or Castro's?
  23. jmlease1
    I'm confused. GG didn't have a hit today. :P Would like to see DeBarge move up; I'm really wondering how his running plays against better catching and pitchers that might have learned more about holding runners on. Sure looks like this is going to be a weapon for him, and it's fun to see someone pile up this many steals in the minors. Preilipp did ok; I'm mostly happy with him being healthy this year. Would like to see him be more efficient in getting through innings, but health is the biggest thing for him this year. If he can finish the season without any injury issues then this season will be a huge victory.
  24. jmlease1
    I think my comprehension skills are just fine. I laid out the scenarios where the Twins had a runner on first with no outs after having scored their second run. All of them. You seem to be arguing that the stats are wrong about how useful it is to bunt a player over because situationally it might be better to do it with the top of the order coming up and the hitter in question being bad. But at the end of the day you're still giving up an out for a base. If you can do the math where it shows how having the 9th man in the lineup sacrificing the runner from first to second with the top of the lineup is better than just having them hit followed by the top of the lineup, be my guest. If Bader is bunting for a hit, it's a different story. Bunting for a hit is very different than a sacrifice. But you don't appear to be arguing that, only for moving the runner over and seeing what happens.
  25. jmlease1
    A little thin on the offense in the system, but it goes that way from time to time. Nice to see GG continuing to play well: can't complain about a hit and 2 walks. He's really having a great season, and has to be rising up the prospect rankings. Twins seem to have him in a good place, he's been healthy this season, and is well positioned to maybe get a cup of coffee in AAA this year. Good for him, hope he keeps it up. Interesting to see Noah Miller; he still looks the same to me. Good defense, might hit for average, no power, seems destined to be a utility guy for a team with good hitting and defensive needs in the infield for a few years at best. Doncon is having a poor, injury-filled season, but I don't see Miller being more than organizational filler at this point. Trade looks like one that will mean little for either team. Very nice outing for Bohorquez; he's got talent, but he needs to find some consistency throwing strikes. It'll be interesting to see if this kind of start gets him on a run, or if he keeps having games where he can't find the zone without taking something off...which leads to him getting hit. in 10 outings this only the 2nd time he hasn't given out 2+ free passes; both games where he's kept the walks down he's done well. The formula for success for him doesn't look that complicated, but getting him through it is the tough part.
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