jmlease1

75%? Unless you have some inside information on this one, Winkel looks more like 0% to me. He didn't hit in the very friendly environment of Saint Paul in 2024, really only had one impressive season at the plate in the minors (2023 in AA, also in a good hitting environment) and doesn't look ready for MLB. He's the classic profile of the AAA catcher: maybe he can come up and be the backup for a few weeks if someone gets hurt, but you can't expect anything from him. While catching is thin across MLB, it's thin because there's a lot of guys like him floating around and few breakout prospects and not a lot of 2-way players. Hard to see anyone picking him to be their backup catcher for the season out of the Rule 5. You grab him if you can send him up and down from AAA and Rule 5 doesn't allow that. If he got picked, I'd bet money he'd be returned.

I hate the fact that the self-imposed payroll limitations have us in a position where we need to do a salary dump to make improvements to the roster, but we are where we are. The reality is, if we can move off Vazquez's contract, we should absolutely do it. he's a good guy who works with pitchers well and and brings positive intangibles to the team, but it's also true that he can't hit much for very long. He'll have a hot streak or three in a season, but his numbers at the end of the day will be...poor. But he's still a quality defensive catcher, and in MLB these days not very many catchers can hit their weight, so for the right team he could fill a role reasonably, and they would only be looking at a 1-year commitment, so even if Vazquez repeats 2024 it won't hurt much, and even a fairly modest bounceback would make him acceptable at a position where there aren't many solutions out there. At least vazquez has done it before on a big stage. i don't expect much if anything in return, but I'd still do it. Camargo has little left to prove in AAA and is a reasonable backup option and if he flunks out, then the team will likely have Winkel or someone like him in AAA to give a shot, and if that craps out too it's not that hard to find a no-hit solid field experienced MLB catcher interested in one last job off the waiver wire or via small time trade. $10M would go a long way to fill positions of much greater need. (I'm also baffled by the desire to run Jeffers out of town; he was a quality defensive catcher in 2024 and above league average as a hitter even in a down year. he wasn't all that far off in controlling the running game: if he'd thrown out just 3 more dudes he'd have landed at league average, and Vazquez wasn't any better)

Yeah, so it falls in on the articles assumptions, which is a fair place to work from when doing this kind of exercise. I just have trouble seeing this kind of contract, especially when they cite contracts that were...bad, as precedent. (Abreu's was awful, Encarnacion & Santana's were both below par on average). If there's any kind of market contraction this year, which seems likely...why would any team sign up for a 3 year deal at $20M per on a player who has shown signs of decline? (I'm also finding it impossible to believe that teams are going to be throwing 5 years and a $25M AAV at Pete Alonso, who is 5 years younger than Walker, but seen a similar decline in bWAR from 2022 to 2024...but MLB teams have been stupid before) I'm intrigued by a player like Walker, but not at $20M AAV for 3 years at his age, no mater how many people say he's underappreciated.

not a fan of Josh Bell as a 1B option. he hasn't been good for a couple of years and there's a reason he's been on 5 teams in 3 seasons and Cleveland at a bunch of salary to make him go away. I think the price is probably about where he might land, but I don't want him; we'd likely be better giving that same about to bring back Santana, which will be in that same range i suspect. Mayza seems like an interesting piece worth going for to give us a LH option in the bullpen, but dumping Topa for nothing feels like an overreaction to not getting an immediate result from the Polanco trade. Signing Bieber is not where I want to put what few dollars we have. Much rather put money into getting a real 1B/RH hitter instead of Josh Bell. Adding Gus Varland feels a little more like a PR move than a real attempt to upgrade the bullpen.

It's a creative and fairly bold plan. Do we really see Christian Walker getting 3/$60M? The defense is quality and he's been a consistent hitter, but he's also seen a decline in his bWAR each year for the last 3 and will turn 34 next season. If there's really a monetary crunch from the collapse of the RSNs league wide this offseason, he looks exactly like the sort of player who won't get a big deal. I guess we'll see on him? It's interesting that you have the Twins grabbing 2 players from the D-Backs. I'd be worried about the bullpen under this design, as it relies on Stewart, Topa, and Moran all being healthy and betting on more than one of them being healthy seems to be unlikely. That said, Varland and Alcala are both capable of handling higher leverage situations, so it's not like the back-end is going to be bare. But I'd have to bet that no more than 1 of the three is healthy out of spring training/makes it through april, which means dipping down into the depth early in the year. I'm not sure we can pry Rushing loose without giving up more, but we do have the prospect capital to add to this deal without needing to drop in one of our top ranked guys. he certainly would be a good fit. I think having Helman and Kiersey on the bench kind of insures the bench doesn't hit enough. If we think Helman could fill in at CF well enough I'd be more interested in having Julian on the opening day roster. I still think he can hit. Not so sure about Kiersey.

He should be a fun one to watch. He struggled at Cedar Rapids for sure, but it's a fairly small sample and making the jump up to High A in your first professional season is impressive regardless of what happens in that final stop. I think it's a good sign that he didn't just have a power explosion in his final year of college; he hit exactly the same his last two seasons at K-State, so that suggests it wasn't a mirage. And the Big 12 has quality competition. There's a lot to like here about his ability as a hitter, and if he can elevate his swing a little more while maintain strong contact skills he should be a dangerous hitter. Cedar Rapids is a good place for him to start the season. Twins haven't been afraid to promote guys aggressively, so if he come out the gate firing and hits like he's capable of he could be in Wichita later in the year. I hope the Twins don't walk away from his speed and just bulk him up and ignore his potential as a runner. I'm not expecting him to steal 40+, but they should be working on having players like him with good speed and the ability to swipe bags continue to refine it. there's good value-added in that and playing station to station baseball should be the default.

Adams is the toughest call, I think. (Raya is a no-brainer, and I think you have to protect Olivar and Rosario or lose them) Of the rest the only one that you'd lose is Adams. He's close enough to MLB that you could pretty easily stash him as a long reliever in MLB for most teams, and a bad one that's short on talent would definitely grab him IMHO. So what do the Twins really think of his potential to pitch effectively in MLB for them? He's pretty far down the pecking order for starting pitching prospects, but it's unclear if he could switch to the 'pen and be impactful or not. I think that's the tough selection. Maybe you could sneak Olivar through this year; it's tough to keep position players on a roster for a full season who aren't realistically in a position to play and Olivar isn't. (there are questions about him at catcher, and while he profiles well as a hitter, he ain't ready to go to MLB) But losing him would be a huge loss. I'm risk adverse; we'll see if the Twins are on this.

He hadn't shown himself to be good anywhere in the field. Below average or worse everywhere they tried him. Just not a very good fielder, so he needs to hit to make it. The raw numbers in 2024 looked ok, but in the context of the high offense environment in Saint Paul...not so great. I had hopes of him as a 1B option for the Twins, but they clearly didn't think he could make a difference. With his high K numbers, lack of a defensive position, and relative struggles in AAA...not sure they were wrong here. A team without a 40-man crunch should take a flier on him, but I can understand why the Twins cut him off the 40-man, and why he wanted to move on.

I want nothing to do with trading Ober, who i think is excellent, but you have to trade value to get anything and he's got a ton of it. but where the twins are right now because of the Pohlad self-imposed payroll limitations, it's very hard to put together an Ober package that makes a lot of sense, unless you're tearing this down for 2025...at which point dealing other players like Lopez, Buxton, Correa (if he's amenable) plus Jax & Duran probably make even more sense. Dealing Ober to improve the MLB squad would require taking back a lot more in salary, so seems really unlikely. And i definitely don't want to move him for a bunch of prospects, no matter how highly rated they might be, because it seems impossible that anyone acquiring him would have a superior pitching prospect in AA or higher waiting if they have such a need for Ober. he's worth a ton, and for good reason. Seems like a bad idea to move him, though, unless we've already created payroll flexibility.

There's a lot to like about Lewis: he handled A-ball with ease and while he was a little more up and down and less dominant in AA, by the end of the season he was starting to look like 2023 Lewis again. He looks like someone who knows how to pitch, and if he can keep the fastball around 91-93 mph then I think he's got a future. I'm not going to put too much weight on 1 start in AAA; let's see how he does in a dozen before we decide what he is. He's behind guys like Festa and Matthews right now, but not that far behind, and I think he spends most of his time in AAA waiting for his chance. I'm a little worried about his durability: he's thrown over 100 innings exactly once in his entire career and missed real time in 2024. But he gets outs and doesn't give up piles of runs. besides, dude a has a knuckleball. Can't wait to see it in MLB.

Short answer: No. Longer answer: No, because the odds of him having sustained success as a starter aren't all that great, and he has found far more success as a reliever, in ways that look repeatable and sustainable that are most likely not true as a starter. the issue of max effort has come up by many here already, but it's a real issue as an actual starter. you have to pace yourself through the game at least somewhat. Do teams have starters worrying less about that now as they pull guys before they go through the order a 3rd time? Sure, but it's unquestionably harder to maintain velocity deeper into games especially through the grind of a full season. It's one thing to gut through it in april/may and another to be able to summon that velocity in late august. Jax has improved his stuff, which is a point in his favor, but how does that changeup look when guys have already seen it? His sweeper is faster and sharper...can he sustain that velocity and spin on it through 5-7 innings? Can he throw it enough as a starter? that fastball got a lot better when it went from 92-93 to 96-98 mph too. he's a real weapon in the bullpen. He struggled mightily as a starter. Yes, he's almost certainly a better pitcher now than he was then, but part of that is because he's throwing so much harder. It would be a huge gamble to see if he can maintain velocity deep in games and be effective as a starter, because you're really not going to know until you've given him 5-6 starts in MLB. Because he's not going to be throwing that deep in spring training even if they have him prepare to start. So you're either taking a the risk and hoping or taking the word of the player (and players are notorious unreliable in their ability to assess whether they can do something or not) that it'll work. We need him in the bullpen. he's been great in the bullpen. We probably don't need him as a starter. He was bad as a starter. keep him in the bullpen. I mean, go ahead and have the conversation with him. But I would explain it to him exactly like that: we need you in the bullpen, where you're great. the team needs you there. I think he'll get it.

Just fine. we desperately needed starting pitching and Maeda got it done for us in 2020 (Cy Young runner-up) and was also still solid for us in 2023. Sure, he got hurt and it wrecked 2021 & 2022, but needs must. Graterol has had 1 great season in 5 with the Dodgers and has been injured or just pretty good (or both) in the other 4. Both teams got exactly what they needed in 1 season, mixed results and injuries in the others. Twins hardly got fleeced, especially since we also got back Carmago in the deal, who looks ready to be the backup catcher. (yes, we gave up Raley, but the Dodgers gave up on him and dealt him for nothing) Is Graterol better than Duran or Jax? or is he more like Sands or Alcala? Or is he really more like Brock Stewart: good when healthy, but not very healthy? (Note: Graterol only pitched in one series in the postseason this year, which might tell you where he is in the Dodger bullpen rankings, and nearly blew Game 5 for them with 3 BBs) I'd prefer to hang on the Duran as well, but the Twins didn't get fleeced by dealing Brusdar Graterol.

Sands basically never made the rotation; I'm not sure how much earlier they reasonably could have converted him. he still profiled out as a potential starter in 2021 when he was in AA; I'm not sure why anyone would have sent him to AAA and made him relieve yet. yes, he had some injury issues, but nothing major like Canterino or Prielipp. he got called up in 2022, didn't look great as a starter, got some relief tries, and then got sent back down. He made the transition to the bullpen full-time in 2023 and did ok for the twins but walked too many guys, and took a step forward in 2024. Jax it's a little of the same thing: should the Twin not have tried him in MLB as a starter? Because he only started for us for one season. Sure, maybe he makes it to MLB faster as a reliever, but keep in mind that when jax was coming up we were desperate for starting pitching because the cupboard had been pretty bare. We've got a ton of depth in the high minors right now for starters, but in 2021 we were still so thin that we were banking on JA Happ and Michael Pineda. the value is so much higher if a guy can start that it's hard to give up on him (especially when performing in the minors) and convert to relief before you know if they can't hack it in MLB.

I don't think we should trade Duran, and I don't think we will trade Duran...but he's also one of the most tradable. He's a proven closer, a late-inning monster who can shorten the game for a team. He's got a 3-pitch mix that's terrifying, and for a normal team his cost for this year and next is more than reasonable. My question would be whether trading a reliever is better in-season or before the season? Trading him now would net the other team more time with him, but waiting until midseason might get you an overpay from a contender desperate to fix their bullpen after ineffectiveness or a major injury strikes. I actually think Duran is going to have a monster season this year, and I want him on the team. But he has a lot of value in MLB right now and while this would weaken the Twins bullpen, we do have other guys there. If healthy (a BIG if) Brock Stewart could certainly step in, Varland has the gas to be an effective back-end guy, Sands improved a lot, and if we moved Duran we'd likely be keeping Jax, who was great. It thins out the depth, but doesn't necessarily sink the bullpen. I'd hate to lose him, but you have to trade value to get value. Duran is the one I would float if I was looking to make a significant move...especially if we got out from under Vazquez or Paddack's contract to allow us to take on salary.

It's not that he's untouchable, it's more than we don't feel like we'll get anywhere near the value in return, we'll have just as much risk (with Royce the risk is injury. if he's dealt, the risk is the prospects don't pan out, because it seems pretty unlikely that we'll get proven MLB talent in return, especially because the Pohlad self-imposed payroll limits mean that a trade of Royce has to be for prospects unless another trade is made to free up payroll). I never felt like Kirilloff was untouchable, but it was a similar situation (although Kirilloff never put up the kind of numbers that Royce has) where you had a player with a lot of talent who was struggling to stay on the field. It's hard to sell high on a guy like that, and the return when you sell low because of the injuries it often doesn't improve your position. With the makeup of this team the injury issues with the most talented players is a big challenge. Healthy, Royce, Correa, and Buxton provide excellent RH hitting ability and solid to superior defense (Royce was good at 3B in 2023, not so good in 2024; I'd average that out until we get more time in grade, but Buxton and Correa are still excellent defenders). But availability is a problem because right now these are our three most talented position players. Trading Royce is challenging because it doesn't feel like we'd get what we'd need in return, and it would almost certainly require 1-2 other trades to happen to even get close because of payroll. Add in the "selling low" aspect, and it just seems like a bad idea and highly unlikely anyone is going to blow us away with an offer.

Should we never take a risk on talent vs health? Our prospects who have had all these injury issues, outside of Prielipp only Lee had any injury concerns at the time they were drafted. Canterino, Kirilloff, Lewis, Buxton...none of these guys had injury issues when drafted. They took a shot on a prospect with a high ceiling and a big injury risk. But it's not like they're doing that with lots of picks in every draft. It's been pretty restrained. They've taken some risks on pitchers with injury concerns in MLB, but that's been more a function of payroll than anything else. Sometimes it's worked (Maeda mostly, Gray) and sometimes it's flopped (Mahle, Paddack mostly, Desclafani) but financial concerns were part of the package on all of these guys.

Span was a really good player who value declined sharply once his defense dropped off in CF. Maybe he could have stayed faster for longer, but it also just might be like a lot of players that you can't keep it going into your 30's when you get past your physical prime. Very valuable player his first 7 years, just another guy his last 4. Biggest problem was the Twins tried to sell high on him and didn't get the return they needed, taking back an oft-injured player with control issues who made it to MLB primarily on scholarship and was out of baseball before he turned 28. If you don't keep the Spans of the world, you can't trade them for an Alex Meyer.

Maybe he serves as an "opener" this year? I like the possibilities he could bring to the bullpen, hope to see him tested against AA hitters to start the season.

DeBarge is going to be an interesting one to watch. He wasn't great in his first taste of pro ball, but the FSL isn't the easiest place to get things going, either. We'll see whether his power burst in college (he showed substantial improvement as a sophomore and again as a junior) is too tied into aluminum bats or if he can get it done as a pro. I suspect the twins saw something they liked in his swing, so hopefully they can refine and improve it, and with more advanced training and coaching they can get him on track. not sure about him, but it's not a bad placement on the prospect list. Prielipp is so hard to evaluate. he's clearly got massive amounts of talent...and an elbow that scares the crap out of me. I'm not opposed to keeping him to short starts while advancing him up another level, and looking at him as a bullpen option sooner rather than later. because oh my he could be dominant. But seems hard to believe that he can hold up under a starter's workload. I know I like Rosario more than I should. He's not a good enough OF, he Ks too much, there's real concerns that he won't make enough contact...but he hammers LHP and he's still pretty young. Still a fan. Like him starting in AA, mashing the snot out of pitchers and then being in Saint Paul in July.

yes, our prospects never make any impact. We probably shouldn't even bother having the minor league clubs. except SWR saved the rotation in 2024 with 28 league average starts that we desperately needed. Julien, Wallner, and Lewis were instrumental in the Twins winning the division and their first playoff wins in forever in 2023. Duran emerged in 2022 as a dominant force in the bullpen. It's pretty normal for a prospect to come in and make an impact on a team. Maybe it won't be one of these 4, but it absolutely could be. Most years a prospect will join the team and make an impact, sometimes more than one. I wouldn't say we had one in 2021, but 2020 is when Jeffers arrived as a badly needed partner for the now injured Garver. 2019 gave us the Luis Arraez Experience. 5 of the last 6 years had a prospect come up and make a real impact on the Twins. Even if it's not one of these four, I'd bet it's going to be someone.

I think it's instructive that one of the trades mentioned was Jazz Chisholm for Zac Gallen. Chisholm had a solid first full season in 2021 (I think it's fair to set aside the 21 games in the pandemic year) as a solid but unspectacular hitter and good fielding SS. he was having a breakout season in 2022, playing at an all-star level before getting hurt and missing the entire second half. Miami moved him to CF for...reasons? in 2023 where he was ok (but almost certainly should have stayed on the dirt) but missed a big chunk of the middle of the season. Then got sent out to NY before he could get expensive for some minor leaguers. I'd say Miami fouled this one up pretty badly. Gallen has added much more value to AZ than Chisholm did in Miami, who seem to have mismanaged Chishom in moving him to mostly the OF and sold low on him to NY when he wasn't hitting well. Let's not repeat that mistake with Royce. Moving Royce Lewis (which is exceptionally unlikely to happen) seems like a disaster waiting to happen. He's shown flashes of elite talent, but after his collapse in sept we'd be selling low. We're not getting MLB-ready players for him and it's doubtful that we're getting prospects with all-star ceilings, unless they're A-ball guys because of Royce's health history and bad slump down the stretch. Selling low on a 25 year-old with huge upside usually ends badly. The only reason to sell on him right now is if a) you're convinced that his knees are never going to let him fulfill his potential, and b) someone else is so convinced that his knees are fine that they're willing to give you back a Zac Gallen.

Glad to see Ben Ross hitting. He's a bit like Schobel in that he smacked into the AA wall and hard, and need to show he can survive as a hitter. His defense seems solid enough that he could make it as a utility guy, but not if he can't hit his weight. He started slowly in the AFL, but has turned it on lately. If he can carry that into next season he might get himself back on track. We'll see what he can do. Rosario is a player I'm probably overly excited about. Not great defensively, Ks a lot...but I'm still intrigued by his RH power bat. I expect he'll start the season back in AA, but if he's able to make enough contact and drive the ball to start the season in Wichita, he could get a quick promotion to AAA. He's doing fine in the AFL and needed to get some swings in after the injury.

I just don't believe the rumors that he's interested in going to a smaller market team. Seems like utter BS. Maybe he doesn't end up with the Dodgers, but I'll be he stays West Coast, with Seattle, SD, and SF all very reasonable destinations. (Angels seem too terminally inept) Sure, Twins should take a flyer and make their best pitch (little to lose by trying I would think?) but this would be the ultimate longshot. We don't exactly have a great track record of bringing in players from Asia and helping them find success, and while you can assign blame to the players (probably correctly) as not being good enough for MLB having some track record of success always helps. We got nothing.

Because Baldelli is responsible for players getting hurt? Not sure I get this take.

Here's the thing though: you're literally only drawing on starting pitching for a prospect list. Any pitcher who has transitioned to relief before getting to MLB isn't going to make a prospect list. So you're going to have more to draw from on the position side for a "prospect" list. Beyond that, the Twins have been pretty good at getting guys to jump on to the prospect list even when they are nowhere to be found after their draft year (where did you have Festa and Nowlin in 2021?) Throw in how hard it is to evaluate A-ball pitchers, and it doesn't seem too bad. After graduating Festa and Matthews (who might not be officially allowed on prospect lists but are still mostly rookies anyways) the pitching list still seems ok.