jmlease1

I'm glad we're only giving him $1M, but this team has a history of overplaying underperforming veterans. I hope if he sucks they can move on from him, but I'm skeptical. Looking at the Baseball Savant stats on France, I'm not really seeing "unlucky" or that he really hit the ball all that hard. he was below average on average exit velocity, barrel %, LA sweet spot, squared up %...the only hitting stats where he cleared average (barely) were chase rate, whiff %, and K %. he hit the ball harder in Cincy than he did in Seattle and his numbers improved...but were still not good. There's a lot of blue on his charts. I hope I'm wrong. But I'm not seeing a lot to suggest this will work. At least with Santana you knew he'd play a really good 1B.

Coulombe probably doesn't fit in this category of "floor-raiser, no ceiling" the same way that Bader and France do. Sure, he's a soft-tosser (by modern standards, anyways) but he's also been very good when he's pitched the last couple of seasons. He's an injury risk, but finished the season healthy. I think if he'd been signed in December he'd simply be viewed as a guy filling a hole & role with the team. Bader and France are the ones that look like the veteran retreads that have mostly crapped out the last couple of seasons: Margot, Gallo, etc. These are guys that got too much PT, and kept getting run out there even after they were really sucking. Bader will provide defense...but Gallo provided good defense too, but after the first month or so became a disaster at the plate. France looks more like Margot: poor offense, no defense...why?!? And now we've filled up the roster with MLB contracts for guys that can't be dropped without simply eating the money or praying that someone else might take them off our hands. That makes it more likely that no significant trade happens, IMHO. I liked the Twins floor-raising strategy when we were running so thin on the roster that we simply didn't have enough MLB-capable players in the organization in multiple roles. Not giving innings or ABs to bad players is a floor-raising move that can add wins pretty quickly and relatively cheaply. But in this case, I'm questioning whether we're adding decent MLB players or just shuffling around who our "bad" players are. Raising the floor is great, but did we actually do it, or did we just add poor MLB veterans to take ABs from younger players in the organization that haven't proven themselves yet but were about the same level of meh? I mean, Bader's an improvement over Margot, because even if he can't hit either he'll play better defense. But he's more expensive and still might not be good because of his unimpressive performance at the plate. France? I don't know that he's actually better than anyone on the roster. But when you only shop in the dented can isle, I guess that's what you get. Thanks, Pohlads.

Julien's been a better player more recently than Ty France has.

Miranda and Kiersey don't belong in the same sentence here, though. miranda put up 1.7 bWAR last season with a 112 OPS+. He's been a good hitter 2 of the last 3 season in MLB, despite his injury issues. Kiersey got a cup of coffee in MLB for the first time last season and is older than Miranda. Miranda should not be seen as a fringe roster player, especially for the Twins, who need hitting.

Is it an indictment of Julien or Miranda? Think it's a bigger swipe at Miranda. France's 2023 wasn't good. His best offensive skill was getting hit by a pitch.

Terrible signing. France sucked last season. he wasn't good the year before that. It's been 3 years since he hit, he doesn't profile as a good platoon player, he's not good defensively...why are we wasting a roster spot on him? I hope I'm wrong about Ty France, but I doubt it. this looks like a zero-upside move. Much rather have Miranda & Julien with a side of Castro filling in at 1B than run out this washed up retread. Only thing he seems to have going for him at this point is health.

I like nothing about this signing. France hasn't hit since 2022, was an undeserving all-star who rode 2 hot months into getting a nod, isn't a very good defender, and doesn't even profile as a platoon player. Unless Miranda is hurt, I'd much rather have Miranda out at 1B. I hope he hasn't been promised the starting job (but I'm probably wrong) and if he stinks (which is likely) I hope the Twins are willing to cut their losses on the crappy veteran for once rather than keep running them out there hoping to recoup value. but I doubt it. Basically, I hope I'm wrong about Ty France. but I don't think I am.

It's interesting how quick some people are to give up on Julien. Dude was 7th in RoY voting in 2023, and deserved it. He's hit at every level of professional baseball, including a longer period of success in MLB than failure. One poor year (and it unquestionably was poor) and it seems like there are a lot of people ready to throw him on the scrap heap. I mean, people get mad about the Twins letting Rooker go, and he was worse than Julien, having shown far less MLB success than Julien, and couldn't stick with 2 others teams (including KC, who desperately needed a power-hitting corner OF/DH type at the time). And people still use him as an example for why the twins decision-making is bad. But we're supposed to give up on Julien?

I'm in on Miranda being the primary at 1B. If he's healthy he'll hit, and he should field the position well enough that the lower defense should be worth it. I'd tell him to focus on receiving throws as much as possible working with Correa (who I'd bet will be an awesome teacher and helper in getting him adjusted) and Lewis (who needs some help with his scattershot arm). And I'd be ok with Julien getting the first chance at backing up 1B (and 2B) with a little DH-ing in there. he might not be as good a hitter as he was in 2023, but he's better than he was in 2024. Rather see either get a chance over bringing in another washed up vet with little chance of upside and a big chance at falling through the floor.

It's always good to have important players not be coming off surgery. Even a "minor" procedure is still something. I'm sure it's a huge relief to Buxton and Lewis to not be just in rehab mode. I'll be very interested to see how Ryan is doing: it's the first real injury he's had, and hopefully it doesn't become a pattern or anything. If he's fully healthy and ready to go on Opening Day it'll be a big boost. I'm a big fan of his and him going down was a significant blow last season. back injuries/conditions are always a little tricky, so it's definitely worth monitoring Miranda and Lee to see how they're doing. I suspect both would have gotten shut down last season if a) there had been other options, and b) it wasn't the end of the year. Hopefully both are feeling strong and healthy. Pre-season health reports are always a little bit shady; "best shape of my life" is such a cliché at this point. That said, it is notable that the Twins have fewer key guys coming off off-season surgery.

There's some interesting prospects on the NRI list. Looking forward to seeing how Morris and Lewis look on the mound. While I don't expect either to be among the first called up to start for the Twins if/when injuries or ineffectiveness strikes in the rotation, both pitched well enough last season to be legitimate options in 2025 if needed. They should be fun to track in Saint Paul. Keaschall will be interesting. he had a great season going even while fighting the elbow injury, so I'm looking forward to seeing how his recovery has gone. I suspect that's part of why he's getting the invite: Twins may want their MLB training staff monitoring his recovery? Hitters do come back faster from TJ for sure, but I suspect we'll be seeing him at 2B and the OF mostly rather than testing his arm too much at 3B or SS. I'm not too fussed about Eeles or McCusker or even Walker Jenkins not getting an invite to MLB camp. If Eeles keeps showing good power production to go with his other basket of hitting skills, he'll get his opportunity and more time in AAA makes sense. Same goes for McCusker, really. If he hits, he'll get a chance but he hasn't even played 30 games in AAA yet. Jenkins will be here soon: he'll start at AA and the only thing that will keep him from AAA this season is himself. I expect to see him in Saint Paul around midseason. Oodles of talent, seems to have plenty of drive and work ethic. Please stay healthy! He's doing great for a guy who is just turning 20.

I think Castro still has a lot of value, even if he's no longer the first choice to backup CF or SS (he wouldn't be my pick either for those positions: Bader is the clear backup in CF and should be, and I'd rather see Lee step in/back up Correa). Castro's value is still tied to his versatility and if he shows he can play a good 1B makes him a high quality bench player. Being able to pinch hit or pinch run Castro into 6 different positions without needing to make a corresponding move for defensive purposes is really valuable when teams are only carrying a 4 man bench. He's not a great hitter and between injuries and maybe a little over-exposure got ground down in the second half last season; he's probably best suited to get 120-130 games and 330-375 ABs in a season rather than 150+ and 550+, exploiting that versatility and using his speed. I wish he could hit a bit better from the right side, but his splits are still decent enough that he's a reasonable switch-hitter. But I think the Twins are making a bad choice with their limited roster spots to pick up a backup SS unless it's someone they can stash in AAA as a "break glass in case of emergency". I'd much rather have Willi Castro on the bench than any of the yahoos left on the market at SS and the salary for Castro still more than matches the production. But nobody is untouchable, really, and if the Twins are able to package Castro and Paddack and a prospect for a significant bat...so be it.

I think the front office and manager are in lockstep about some of these overarching in-game strategies for lineups; assigning Rocco the blame for what was an organizational decision to try and jump on teams and generate a big inning earlier in the game through a platoon advantage seems silly to me. That said, I thought it was vastly over-utilized last season, so moving on from it seems to be a benefit to me. The concept wasn't terrible, but a) was overused, and b) didn't have effective enough RH hitters to execute it. (also? I think the Twins expected Margot to be able to play CF as he had in the past, and Farmer not being able to play SS as a bench player wasn't necessarily a problem; it's not like we were looking to sub for Correa when he was playing? the problem was neither of them hit, and Margot couldn't play defense worth a damn for the first time in his career.) I'd like Wallner and Larnach to get more opportunities to survive against LHP in the middle innings so they're available to hit in close and late situations against RHP. I think the bench is constructed more now to have speed/defense guys coming in late to hold leads rather than try to get them in the first place. I don't think this is a front office strategy designed to limit Rocco; I think this is collective action for a different direction based on the results of last season and the limits of the payroll and roster. Not for one second do I think that the front office makes moves designed to change Rocco's in-game strategy, because they decide these together. (It's why the "Fire Rocco!" crowd will be utterly disappointed with the next manager for as long as this front office team is in place...if you want drastic changes to the on-field decision-making, you'll need to clean house in the front office too)

Hard to know what the committees will do with relievers. Nathan not having a lengthy postseason record may hurt with that group, but if one of his old teammates or managers get on there to champion his case, then maybe. I think he's worthy; during his prime he was the 2nd best reliever in baseball, behind the guy who was probably the best reliever of all-time. But there are still those who don't think relief pitchers deserve to be in there at all. Torii was an excellent player, but isn't Hall-worthy. His GG's got...questionable, so him just having a ton of them might not help like people might think. He was very good for a long time, but I don't think he gets any real ascent under the BWAA, and after that he'll have to compete with other CFs that probably should have gotten more attention (Edmonds, Lofton). He's quite literally the epitome of Hall of Very Good. Santana has the best case; his dominance was massive. Sabathia's admission doesn't help him at all, really: very different pitchers and different cases. Sabathia's has more to do with longevity, Santana's is all about peak value. Personally, I think Johan was inhumanly awesome enough for long enough that it shouldn't matter if he didn't have 3-4 more seasons in his 30's to pile up counting stats...but I'll admit to bias on Johan.

He's a fantastic story. I'm rooting like hell for him. I hope he keeps crushing the ball in AAA, playing good defense, and pushes his way on to the 26-man roster. I have no problem with him starting the season in AAA; he had a great season but it's not like he's shown it over a couple of seasons in pro ball. It's a fairly small sample at the high minors. If he keeps hitting like this, he'll get a chance.

I'm utterly uninterested in either of these guys on the 26-man roster. if one of them wants to sign a deal that lets them go to AAA on a MLB-level salary to serve as insurance if Correa misses extended time? fine. But otherwise...nah. I get that Willi Castro might not really be an acceptable SS at this point, but Brooks Lee is. he can certainly handle the backup innings. DeJong started out well and had a great 2019. He's been in decline ever since. there's a reason he's bouncing around the league now. Urias looks like a total mess right now, and him not cracking the Mendoza line since 2022 is a problem. his defense (such as it is) peaked right at the same time as his offense, which makes me think he might be one of those guys that carries every AB with him on to the field. I mean, if you're not going to play Castro at SS, adding one makes some theoretical sense, and the only guy you're pushing out here is Austin Martin who hasn't exactly demanded a spot. But I'd rather ride with Brooks Lee and give younger guys a shot than bring in this kind of veteran, who if they stink we will hang on to for too long, hoping that we'll recoup some value before the end. Like many teams, the Twins do poorly on the sunk cost fallacy and adding guys like this gives them more chances to blow it...

I think this is probably right for the 26-man projection, but I could see Gasper making it if he looks good in spring training and the Twins want Lee playing every day, especially if Julien looks like he's gotten back to the 2023 version. Pitching staff is probably right as well; if they didn't think Castellano was worth a bullpen slot, they wouldn't have picked him, and I think Stewart starts on the IL. Rotation is: Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, and Paddack (for now). Bullpen hierarchy is probably: Duran, Jax, Sands, Coulombe, Alcala, Tonkin, Topa, and Castellano. Lineup: C: Jeffers, 1B: Miranda, 2B: Lee, SS: Correa, 3B: Lewis, LF: Larnach, CF: Buxton, RF: Wallner, DH: Julien? Bench of Vazquez, Castro, Bader, and Martin. Batting order will be interesting. I'm not sure who leads off here? Maybe it's Julien, Correa, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Larnach, Jeffers, Miranda, Lee? Julien sees a fair number of pitches, takes walks, and runs the bases pretty well (good SB numbers in the minors too). (Clearly, I'm not nearly as ready to give up on Julien as some are around here.)

I think there's a huge advantage to not having it be a black hole offensively, but it wasn't the end of the world in 2024 to be sure. CLE had worse offense from their regular CF than Bader (and their backups weren't any better) and they did just fine, PHI was even worse getting production at CF and they were one of the best teams in baseball. NYM went to the NLCS and their primary CF was...Bader. Right now, if you're getting close to league average hitting and good defense from your CF, you're doing pretty well. It's why Christian Vazquez still has value even though he's been a pretty bad hitter lately: so few catchers are hitting much these days that a good defender who doesn't embarrass themselves at the plate still gets work. Same principles are applying in CF now. If Bader shows a little improvement at the plate, or simply hits LHP well consistently, then he can be a useful player that keeps Castro from having to play in CF, gives Larnach/Wallner breaks against LHP, improves the OF defense in late & close games. My concern is that he's about to turn 31, hasn't had an OBP over .300 or a SLG over .400 since 2021. He didn't hit LHP particularly well last season, but he also only had 137 ABs against them; he crushed them the season before but it was an even smaller sample. I think it's a fair bet to look to career splits, but you never know. This move raises the floor a bit and provides useful insurance against a significant Buxton injury. But I think that's about it, which is why I'm a little unimpressed with the deployment of very limited resources here.

Canha is only perfect in that he's likely to be cheap and leftover. I mean, there's nothing wrong with him per se, but he raises the floor (maybe) and not the ceiling. On a 1 year deal for $3-4M, he's...fine? Fairly low risk, might have a bounce back year left in him where he get the SLG% back to around .400 and lands a solid enough OPS of .740, decent defender, solid veteran. but is that going to be better than what we could get from the younger guys, as noted above? Jose Ramirez is going to out-hit him if healthy. Michael Helman might be a better option. Doesn't really move the needle for me

It might be pride effin' with Coulombe too. Balto balked at the $4M (YMMV on whether that was good or not) and after the rejection he may not have wanted to come back ("screw those guys!") even if the money was similar. This happens a fair amount when teams decline to offer arbitration or pick up an option, I think.

that's the biggest reason to like this one: while he's death on lefties, he's still quite effective against righties. Okert did the job very well last season against lefties, but gave it all back against righties. I agree with you: the LOOGY is dead (and it will not be missed, IMHO). Let's just hope he stays on the field. Missing nearly 3 months makes me nervous, and I'm guessing Balto felt the same way or they would have brought him back. But when he pitches, he's a quality bullpen piece. (it is a little sad that Danny Coulombe is the most interesting thing we have to write/talk about here these days though)

Isn't Atlanta part of a publicly traded company and so have their books more available? i haven't had the wherewithal to try and dig that out, but I'd be curious to know whether it actually gives real information on their finances.

I doubt the Twins will mess with his pitch mix much since he was having success. They seem to do tweaks more on guys that haven't made it yet or aren't having success, rather than trying to mess around with someone who has things working. the fact that they have gone 4-seamer first with many relievers may be more of a way to increase their velocity and try to improve their results. Jax threw more sweepers than anything each of the last 2 years, so it's not like they avoid anyone who isn't primary fastball. I suspect someone will start the season on the IL, but there are enough fringe pitchers on the 40-man that there's room for Coulombe. but hopefully, this means they're packaging Paddack and someone and getting 1B taken care of? The fight for the last bullpen slots will be interesting. Right now I'd say it's: Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Coulombe, Tonkin, Castellano, and one of Stewart/Topa (I'm betting one of them will be either hurt or "hurt"). feels like the Twins think they have something in castellano that they won't want to let go.

There's certainly some room to designate some of the more fringe pitchers, but you have to hope that the Twins are going to be able to maybe package a couple of guys as part of a trade. The 40 man has room to maneuver, but they will have to be shuffling pitchers with so few slots taken up by position players. The 26-man is pretty inflexible: max 13 pitchers. Coloumbe's a solid pitcher; he's been an effective LHP who does the job against LH hitters without getting destroyed by RH. Bigger issue is whether or not he can stay on the field, which is the part I like less. Missing almost 3 months last season makes me twitchy, but he did come back and finish the season so he should at least start the season ok.

It's easy to forget in the underwhelming offseason the Twins have had because of the self-imposed payroll limitations dictated from the Pohlads that their AL Central rivals haven't exactly set the world on fire either. I'm mildly skeptical about projection systems, but part of that is in my head I want to use them for the wrong things and treat them as being more predictive than they're intended to be. one thing I fine interesting about systems like PECOTA is they're not as infected by recency bias like fans are. The late-season implosion in 2024 by many players isn't going to be seen as predictive for 2025, just another 6 weeks of the total season. There's some good in that. (There may also be some bad in that as it's possible that players may have gotten exposed down the stretch and a projection system can miss that) I do think the Twins roster is still a good one, with hitting strengths, quality starting pitching (and depth) as well as a bullpen that is very good at it's top end with potential to be great with decent performances/health from some of the guys further down the line. Biggest weakness is defense right now; while there are some quality defenders, there's also some areas where it's tough. I will say I'm not surprised to see Castro rated relatively poorly. His Tigers track record will be taken into account, but he also had a poor second half, belying his all-star status. I think he was probably a bit overused last season myself.