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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    here's the thing though: how much of Jax's improvement in his stuff is related to him being able to be a max-effort guy for 1-2 innings and not having to pace himself through 5-7? His sweeper in 2021 was his best pitch even then; it's gotten better but the bigger difference might be how much more often he's throwing it as a % of pitches. but the real problem he had as a starter was his fastball just wasn't up to snuff and hitters could wait on it and not chase sweepers out of the zone. He's not spinning it and faster, just throwing it harder and with better extension. that's much easier to maintain 1-2 innings at a time than 5-7. he'd also need his 3rd pitch (changeup, i assume) to stay quality and that's been up and down on him. In relief he can drop the changeup if he doesn't have a feel for it and it's no big deal. gets to be a problem as a starter. but the biggest question is whether or not Jax could maintain a velocity of 95-97 mph consistently for an entire game and a full season starting. because otherwise, I don't think his fastball can compete. When it was 92-93 mph it got hit and got hit hard.
  2. jmlease1
    Short answer: No. Longer answer: he wasn't very good as a starter in MLB, and his fastball simply didn't play up well enough. as he's added velocity and throw it less, it's done much better. It's hard to believe that he'll be able to maintain that velocity as a starter, or be able to keep throwing this volume of sweepers back in the rotation. more importantly, he's been excellent as a reliever. Why would you risk taking someone out of a role they've done well in, that the team has a real need for consistent performance at, to place them back in a role they haven't been effective at? they have starting pitching depth that's worth exploring. here's the other thing: Jax was good as a reliever in 2022 & 2023, but not so dominant that anyone was talking about him going back to starting. He was dominant in 2024, but that's no guarantee he'll be this dominant in 2025. relievers often have spikes in performance. While there's every reason to believe Jax can continue to be excellent in the bullpen, some regression would also be perfectly reasonable (and still would make him a quality reliever). but if he does regress, no one would be talking about him starting any longer. Leave him in the bullpen. He's great there, and we need him to be great there.
  3. jmlease1
    These are pretty good questions, i think. Catcher: yes, they can move Vazquez's contract and they probably should. Too many payroll limitations, and while he's capable of a hot month or 2, the overall performance at the plate is almost certainly going to be poor. The defense may be quality, but $10M is too much for a backup so if they can find someone to take him without throwing in more than like a C prospect, let's do it. 1B: tough call on Kirilloff. Such a sweet swing when he's healthy. he's never healthy. I'm less concerned about his defense; I think he'd probably end up doing fine at 1B if he played there consistently and knew that was his spot going in to a season, but how's he supposed to play consistently if he's never healthy? I think the answer is..."how much is he actually making?" UGH. 2B: I still believe in Julien, and hopefully a new hitting coach can help get him out of his own head. The talent is there, but he seemed to stop trusting his own pitch recognition abilities. Fixing him makes it easier to move on from Kirilloff too, as Julien could slide to 1B. SS: I think Lee is the backup here. He looked solid enough, has been playing the spot fairly regularly, and it keeps Castro free to float (and not get exposed by playing him too much). 3B: Time to have a good conversation in the offseason about where Lewis fits best and involve him in the decision. Maybe it's 2B, maybe not, but this is the time to decide. Miranda should be the backup at at 3B and platoon with a LH hitter at 1B. LF: I still think Martin has more to give, but he's better suited to a 4th OF role. Figuring out the platoon advantage might need to be something that is the lowest priority for now and gets "solved" when someone like Keaschall or Rosario breaks through. I think I'd rather patch it together with Martin, some Castro, and letting guys like Larnach and Wallner get exposed to more ABs against LH pitching. While I agree that you should take advantage of the platoon splits, the twins have overused this and run themselves into late-inning disadvantage. Maybe this doesn't need to be as much of a priority. CF: I'm not opposed to giving Kiersey more of a chance. he certainly has nothing left to prove in AAA. I don't think there's much payroll money to fill here, and i don't want another Margot. let the "young" guys play. RF: Wallner is going to have a slump, and it's going to make people crazy. Wallner is also going to work out of it. He's earned the right to do that. Give him RF and try not to let the K's make you too crazy.
  4. jmlease1
    But it's 36 PAs. The sample is just too small to get too hung up on BB% or K% rates. 1 game where a player takes 2-3 walks changes things too much. You're correct that Wallner didn't get it figured out in A-ball; his breakout as a hitter was in AA, but keep in mind he was nearly 3 years older than Rosario when he first hit AA. And I'd love to know more about how Wallner was put on notice that he had no future in the game at any part of his career to date? Rosario is in the AFL to get some swings in and make sure that he's got his mechanic locked in since he missed so much time during the regular season. He's showing an improved performance in the AFL over his first stint there. He's not in any danger of the club giving up on him. That's where Ben Ross is. He's got to show he can hit, because so far he hasn't been able to do it at AA. He can field well enough, but he's not so outstanding out there that he can make it as a no-hit, all-glove guy. And the big pile of walks he's taking in the AFL aren't actually helping his case much, because he's showing little power and not hitting.
  5. jmlease1
    Probably not, but they'll forgive it in a small sample when he's hitting .300 with a SLG% over .500, I think. If he's showing he can make contact and do damage when he swings and otherwise shows good control of the zone, they're less likely to panic over the K/BB ratio. Historically, his challenge has been more around making enough contact rather than plate discipline.
  6. jmlease1
    Too bad DeAndrade hasn't been able to get on the field. Was hoping he could get some innings to make up for the time he's missed. I like his potential as a fielder, but I do have some concerns about his bat. Shame he's not getting the ABs. (and it sucks having good prospects fighting injuries) Great to see Rosario doing well; he seems recovered fully from his injury and is still hammering the ball. Nice to see him making good contact. It'll be interesting to see where the Twins start him next season: AA or AAA? Either way, I expect to see him in Saint Paul fairly quickly and it's good to see a RH corner OF bat developing. Still has some questions, but boy the ball explodes off his bat!
  7. jmlease1
    No, let's credit the people that deserve it: Falvey, the scouting department, the developmental staff, etc. Not the cheap-ass ownership, who were part if keeping minor league salaries low and conditions absurd for decades. Still haven't seen anything to show that ownership deserves credit for the farm system; they presided on the decline of the farm system previously just as much as the current rise.
  8. jmlease1
    I think that's right. I'm a fan of Rosario, but he's not ready to face MLB pitching, doesn't play a premium defensive position, and unless he's made a leap from a hitting perspective that we're all missing then there's no way he'll stick on an MLB roster for the season. It's tough to stash position players on the MLB roster when you can't forecast any kind of real role for them. Raya, on the other hand, would be someone that a team could slot in to be the last man in the bullpen, do some long relief, etc and see what he's got. Much easier for a bad team to carry him as a reliever for a season while trying to refine his pitches. He must be protected.
  9. jmlease1
    I'm not giving the Pohlads (who aren't involved in the day-to-day decision-making of the baseball operations and aren't making prospect trades or draft picks or hiring developmental staff) credit for the farm system. Unless someone can show that the Twins are substantially outspending other teams or have made other financial investments that are above and beyond other franchises, they receive no points and may god have mercy on their souls.
  10. jmlease1
    I get it, and I don't disagree. And I think the twins have a philosophy of building their bullpen on the cheap by seeking out reclamation projects that they think they can improve by mechanical adjustments, changes in pitch mix, etc, and taking starters who flamed out and transitioning them to the bullpen. For the most part it's worked, but they're going to miss on some guys from time to time because so many relievers simply aren't consistent performers from year to year. It'll be interesting to see where guys like can and Hamilton land this season: will they put up a big year and be a real late-inning option, or are they going to be just another guy again? Look at someone like Pagan: he was pretty meh in 2024, but was (surprisingly) good in 2023 after being decidedly below average in 2022.
  11. jmlease1
    Cano was 3 years ago and in 2022 was unplayable as his usual wild self. Yes, he was great in 2023, but regressed back at age 30 in 2024 to being much more like Alcala or Sands. I suspect 2023 will be a fluke year. Coulumbe was hurt in 2022, great for Balto in 2023, and hurt in 2024 at age 34. Do you want to pay Coulumbe his $4M option in 2025? I guess they missed on Hoffman, but so did a lot of teams: Phillies were way down on the waiver claim. And Hoffman had to go down to AAA with them to figure it out. I'm pretty sure I recall people grousing about the Twins wasting a spot on a 30-year old retread who had never done much in MLB a the time. Hamilton is a pretty fungible reliever. Good in 2023, meh in 2024. he would have been maybe the 5th or 6th best reliever for the Twins in 2024, has gotten hurt in 2023 and 2024...he's just another guy. Do I like him as a bullpen option more than say...Josh Winder? Not really. I think every franchise has a list like this of pitchers who the team traded or released that turned around and had 1-3 good seasons relieving for someone else.
  12. jmlease1
    I understood the Okert signing: they were looking for a 2nd lefty and Okert has been and was for the Twins very good against LH hitters. If he'd been close to his career average against RH hitters he might have been viable, but he was abysmal. 10 years ago he might have had a role as a LOOGY, but unless he figures out a way to survive against righties, he's cooked. It was a reasonable way to backup Thielbar, but it just didn't work. the jackson one never made much sense to me.
  13. jmlease1
    No. As good as Santana was at 1B, you just can't accumulate the kind of value and make the number of defensive plays there that you can at SS or CF or C. And it's not like there wasn't elite play at those positions in 2024. Santana deserves the AL Gold Glove at 1B (we'll see if he gets it, or if it goes to someone more famous, though)
  14. jmlease1
    I actually think the bullpen is in decent shape overall for 2025, assuming we don't suddenly dump Jax & Duran for salary reasons. They have 2 real needs: a consistent 2 inning reliever that can go every 3 days or so and a LH option that doesn't get destroyed by RH hitters. Duran, Jax, Sands, and Alcala form a pretty good late-inning bullpen spine, which also means that Topa & Stewart (who are very good when healthy and rarely healthy) are value-added options rather than people you're counting on for significant innings. If Stewart is healthy again, great. but we don't need to bet on him being our 2nd or 3rd best reliever. But asking Alcala to go 2 innings hasn't gone great and moving Sands into higher leverage roles means you'd rather have him pitch 1 later inning twice in 3 days than 2 middle innings once in 3 days. I'd look at Varland for the 2 inning role, personally. And I'm increasingly on board with the idea of Preilipp at a LH option: I just don't think he's likely to be a starting option with his health issues, but he has the pitches to not only be death to LH hitters but hold his own nicely against RH as well. Mock bullpen for 2025: Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Topa/Stewart, Varland, Preilipp, LH to be named later. (Assume at least one of Stewart or Topa won't be ready for Spring Training) Move on from Okert. They probably cant bear to move on from Thielbar. Maybe he can hack it as the second LH, but... That's a pretty good bullpen even if they can't find someone better/more consistent that what's left of Thielbar, especially if at least one of Topa/Stewart is mostly healthy, instead of both of them being zeroes. The biggest question mark is Varland, who has the velocity and stuff to be effective as a reliever, but has also been hit pretty hard. Duran, Jax, and Sands are pretty durable, and Alcala looks recovered from his injury. there's a lot of velocity there and some wicked breaking balls to boot. But having that 2 inning guy will be important to keep the back end fresh enough that you don't have so many guys pitching back to back. Maybe it's Varland. Maybe it's Paddack. Maybe it's Raya? But I think the options are there internally.
  15. jmlease1
    Helman might be able to hold down a utility role just fine...if he can stay healthy. hasn't played a full season since 2022, hasn't played close to a full season. He would have gotten a shot with the twins long before this season if he'd been able to keep himself on the field. I'm fine with giving him a shot, but the injuries are concerning, especially for a Twins franchise that has really struggled with the injury bug over the past few years. Farmer will 100% be gone. I expect someone will take a chance on him for another season before he heads towards retirement and a long career coaching (if he wants it, and it sounds like he does). Heck, if he's ready to retire now I'd offer him a coaching job. Good dude, knows the game. Just maybe can't play it very well any longer.
  16. jmlease1
    Billy Martin was a brilliant manager and an alcoholic maniac. A genius baseball man and a vile, broken human being. One of the greatest turnaround artists in baseball history and one of the most self-destructive people in baseball history (and there's a long list of incredibly self-destructive people in baseball's very long history, and Billy is still top 5). I'm not sure he's the solution, LOL. There's no real evidence that having "too many" guys who play a JD Drew-style of baseball is harmful, in part because it's much more about the total talent, not the style. If you have enough guys that play to JD's level, then you're going to be good. If you don't, you're not. If the twins had 6 guys in the lineup all season with an OPS+ of 125 or better that played station to station baseball, drew walks, didn't steal bases, and had more doubles off the wall than infield hits...they'd have won the division going away. The problem isn't a JD Drew style, it's that not enough guys actually hit at that level. Could they have manufactured a few more runs, especially when everyone was slumping at the plate, by playing a more contact-oriented game, with a hit & run style, stealing bases, etc? Maybe. but it takes a lot more things going right to string singles into runs consistently. Luis Arraez won another batting title this year, and was fun to watch. But was he actually good? 80% of his hits were singles. Matt Wallner might have been frustrating to watch K, but he was substantially better than Arraez this season, even if he was a station to station player with a lot of HRs, and a lot of K's. Wallner wasn't just better at getting on base than Arraez, he was significantly better at it, and his hits were more often more impactful. A walk's as good as a hit. Pretty sure I've heard that somewhere.
  17. jmlease1
    Carlos swiped 4 bags without being caught and generally did a solid job on the basepaths for someone who is pretty dang slow.
  18. jmlease1
    Larnach will probably be better next season with a full off-season to heal up the turf toe that he battled all year. But overall the twins are not great and frequently not aggressive baserunning. Some of that is injury related, some of that is an unwillingness to turn some guys loose. For example, Julien has good ability to swipe bags and has the minor league track record behind him (and he walks enough that he's certainly had opportunities). But they don't send him often.
  19. jmlease1
    This. JD Drew had a career OPS+ of 125. Only 3 Twins exceeded that this season. If more guys had hit like JD, this team would have done much better. the problem with Ed Julien this season was he hit .199 and slugged .323, not that he wasn't animated enough. When he swung the bat, he didn't make enough contact, and when he made contact it wasn't solid enough. People love the scrappy little energizers when things are going well for them and they're getting on base, swiping bags, beating out swinging bunts and slow rollers, etc. And they're just as awful as anyone else when they're not hitting. Scrappiness didn't make Nick Punto a good player in 2007, when he got 150 games in and had an OPS+ of 53. Having a lineup that's got a more varied and balanced approach might help a team avoid lengthy slumps...but then again it might not. Because at the end of the day it's about whether or not the players can hit. And having someone "scrappy" hitting in front of them won't make them any better than having a guy work a walk in front of them.
  20. jmlease1
    Trading Ryan or Ober would be the highest risk of all high risk propositions for this franchise. They would almost certainly bring the highest return of anyone not named Walker Jenkins, but would also blow a hole in the rotation that we might not be able to cover. You'd have to absolutely hit on the trade AND be sure that someone like Festa or Matthews is ready to replace their production from the jump next season, otherwise, this team isn't contending for anything. (Which the Pohlads may not care that much about, but tossing the team into a rebuild spiral with plummeting attendance WILL drive down the price of the franchise by limiting the suitors. For every gazillionaire excited about being able to build their own thing there's 2 who would be saying "wait, we're going to suck for 3 years unless I take big losses out the gate? Hard pass.") I don't think the salary saving this season makes it worth it and there's too much risk in selling on these starters without more confidence in the next wave. I like Festa, Matthews, Lewis, Morris, Raya, etc but I'll know a lot more where they're at after 2025. I'd say we're one season too early to consider moving them. especially because of the surrender optics.
  21. jmlease1
    well, he's from outside the organization, but since he was previously with the Twins I'm sure some people will be furious about this decision.
  22. jmlease1
    The Pohlads are cheap. They've invested in some areas of the farm system, but where exactly have they done more than the average in terms of spending resources on their farm system? Buying into the Saints to bring them into the farm system doesn't really count. Falvey has done a great job in terms of modernizing the farm system. but a lot of that is from setting a new directive for the system and hiring the right people...not necessarily because they're spending additional money.
  23. jmlease1
    Goldschmidt is a Hall of Famer, but it usually ends with a whimper even for the greats. And right now, it looks like age is catching up to Goldy and the 2022 MVP season sure seems like it's the "one last great year" rather than a sign he's going to keep hitting until he's 40. The power is slipping: the last 2 seasons have been 2 of the 3 worst ISO in his career, and all of his 3 worst have been in the last 5. And we're not talking just a little slippage, this is a huge drop off from where he's been, down much closer to MLB average. he's also substantially worse as a defender now too. Goldschmidt has been the much better player over his career, but Carlos Santana was much better in 2024, even with a horrific start. But the bigger issue is a Hall of Fame caliber player like Goldschmidt isn't going to take a massive pay cut to come to a new team that isn't necessarily a title contender. Much more likely that StL signs him to a 2-year deal for $25-30M, or AZ comes a-calling if they can't work out terms with Christian Walker to bring him back to the desert, etc. It'll take $10M+ for sure to sign Goldschmidt, and very possibly 2 years on the deal. twins don't have the money form their self-imposed payroll limitations and Falvey seems pretty adverse (correctly, IMHO) to multi-year deals for aging veterans. I'd say Pass, except I doubt it'll ever really be an option, unless things go very sideways with StL and he's sitting without a team in late Feb. but even then, I doubt we have the money available. I suppose it's possible that he becomes one of the test cases for the new economics of baseball without the sweet sweet RSN money. Aging veterans are definitely the most likely to find their markets drying up first. But it still seems like a fools errand to try and dance with Goldy.
  24. jmlease1
    I'm still a fan of Rosario, and he could be a solid RH bat if he can keep the Ks manageable. Think it was smart to get him back in the AFL to get some ABs considering he missed 2 months in the heart of the season, and the competition level in the AFL is good enough for him to work on some things. He's certainly got the power, and seems like a solid, if unspectacular corner OF. Ben Ross needs to impress here; he's useful defensively, but has very much struggled with the bat in AA. I think the Twins are looking for him to show them something, or his career is going to be hitting the ceiling. Good start in the AFL for him, needs to keep it up.
  25. jmlease1
    I think it's Soto. He's got great stuff, a projectable frame, and he's already shown flashes. He's also young enough for prospect hounds to project all of their hopes and dreams upon, along with being picked high enough to add some pedigree sheen to his profile. Prielipp is incredibly talented, but the injury history is a huge red flag for these kinds of lists, specially combined with his age and the fact that he's likely up in AA. He's already 23 with only 30 professional innings. Most of the people doing lists like this prioritize projection and at 24 in AA they're already writing him off into the bullpen, and they don't put very many bullpen arms into a Top 100 prospect list. Culpepper is the next best bet, IMHO. He did great at Ft. Myers out the gate and still competed at Cedar Rapids. Jumping all the way up to high A in your draft year is impressive, even from a college player.
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