Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jmlease1

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,273

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    30

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Because as a general rule, players tend to have better results with runners on base?
  2. jmlease1
    Tight win. Not great timing for SWR to have a poor outing; while it's great that the bullpen picked him up, they've been pretty overstretched and it seems unlikely that any of our top guys are available today. Duran may not have the 104 mph velocity this season, but it's pretty ridiculous for him to be throwing a splitter at 99. My goodness. TB is down this season, but they still have guys you've never heard of that will hurt you. Nice to see Rortvedt healthy and in MLB; if he can hit like this he'll be a quality second catcher.
  3. jmlease1
    What are you talking about? Rooker got an extended look in MLB with the Twins and wasn't very good, and then couldn't make a dent with 2 other franchises before finding success in Oakland. Let's not pretend he was disrespected by the Twins. I'm happy for him, but he clearly needed to make adjustments and not play in the field. Raley is kind of the same way, but also didn't spend all that much time with the Twins (and was hurt). But he needed multiple bites at the apple in MLB with a couple of franchises before finding success, and just like Rooker, didn't find success until he was nearly 30. Not sure what Gil is doing in here, other than being lumped in as a player who the Twins had that found success somewhere else, but we dealt him from rookie ball 7 years ago. He's having a fine season now, but he's also (unsurprisingly) gotten hurt and it's taken him forever to get to success in MLB. I mean, if the point is we should be giving chances to older prospects, then you should be thrilled to see Helman come up.
  4. jmlease1
    I would disagree on Castro & Jax. The projections on Castro were about assumptions of regression, since he'd only had one season where he'd shown he could be this level of player. But I think while the Twins weren't expecting him to be an all-star pick, they did think he could be this guy again, and so did the fans. So while the projection systems might not have seen it coming, plenty of other people did. Jax elevated to a different gear this season, but he's been a quality reliever the prior two years, so I'm not sure this was really a shocker either. We'll see whether he's able to sustain this new level next season, but I'm not exactly surprised to see a reliever in his prime have a career season. SWR is the real surprise. He'd been struggling a little in AAA, the velocity had been down, he hadn't really had extended periods of dominance in the minors recently, and while I still believed in his talent, it was hard to envision this level of sustained success in MLB this early. He's been good all season, and hasn't been showing sign of fatigue. It's really impressive to see him crushing the innings projections too: he's never pitched this many innings in a season, and it's not really all that close once you add in his AAA innings from this season. Great job by him in seizing the opportunity and not letting go.
  5. jmlease1
    Glad to see Rosario looking healthy and hitting back in AA. Hoping he keeps developing, would be a nice RH OF option if he can keep sharpening his skills. He's still pretty young, so seeing him do well despite missing a lot of injury time this season is good. Ohl is someone where I think the margins might end up being too fine for him to really make it as a starter in MLB, but you never know. Development is not linear, so maybe there's still a another gear to find, and it's not like he doesn't understand how to pitch. He might have trouble finding a slot in AAA early next season just because of the depth we're projecting up there.
  6. jmlease1
    Ober's change up looked really good. He'd had a little bit of a wobbly August, so good to see him have a strong outing, though the 1st inning HR made me a little nervous. Nice to have Royce get the bomb to win it. Made up nicely for not being able to get the big hit in the first with the bases loaded. Need him to get locked in again. I'm ready to see Varland slide into the bullpen again and give them a real boost, but it's understandable after Matthews awful turn that they're not ready to move him in yet.
  7. jmlease1
    Walker Jenkins has definitely found his groove in Cedar Rapids. Not bad at all for 19. He's a heck of a prospect. Happy to see Rosario back in Wichita and getting some hits right away. I still like him as a player, and it's been a bummer he's missed so much time. I still don't know what to think about Raya. He's been ok this year in AA, he's been pitching deeper into games...compared to last year, at least. He can hunt Ks effectively, but is giving up too many free passes and looks more hittable. Really not sure what his future is.
  8. jmlease1
    See, this is the problem: you're doing this all on feel and guesswork. bWAR is a stat, it's just not a stat you like, so your dismiss it. How are you coming up with Miranda preventing 5 losses, and giving us 5 more wins if he had 100 more ABs? You don't have anything to back it up other than "he's a better hitter". He is a better hitter, but is he so much better a hitter and good enough defensively at 1B to be that much of a difference-maker at 1B? Since you don't have any real criteria, you can never be proven right or wrong about anything. Miranda spent 9 games in AAA this season. If we hadn't signed Santana and started Miranda at 1B this season, how would we have done when Royce went down? I'm not drinking the kool-aid, I'm being clear-eyed about this front office, and not pretending they suck because of style. They're not perfect: the Mahle trade was a real risk and a total bust. If GG doesn't pan out, the Polanco trade isn't going to look good (even with Polanco being diminished, something the league clearly recognized regarding his market). They haven't done well as buyers at the deadline, either missing opportunities or busting out. But we're seeing a real flow of young players up to the majors with a competitive club and a strong farm system, and the cupboard was looking a little bare when they arrived.
  9. jmlease1
    I hope Rodriguez is able to get some game time in before the end of the season and finish up healthy and positive. Bummer that the hand/wrist issues have kept him off the field so much, because he was a having a great season. Tons of talent there, and his plate discipline will serve him well as he heads towards MLB. dude can flat-out hit. Maybe he'll be a candidate for the AFL or some winter league work this off-season. Jenkins is doing great, really turned it on lately as he's gotten more comfortable in high A. Not bad at all for 19! It'll be interesting to see how fast the team pushes him next year. He might be ready for AA from the jump, but there's a reasonable argument for him to start next season back at cedar rapids. Regardless, I expect him to spend most of his time in Wichita and it's going to be fun to see how he fares against more advanced pitching. Dude has all the tools, despite being so young. Please stay healthy! Love seeing these two OFs rise through the system.
  10. jmlease1
    there's a lot of cherry-picking going on here. Take the all-star conversation: Twins had 2 this season, both signed by this front office. They had 2 last season, both signed by this front office. Luis Arraez may not have been drafted/signed by this FO but they certainly developed him and he was an all-star for the Twins in 2022 (along with Buxton). 2021 we stunk, but Nelson Cruz was an all-star, signed by the current FO. under the current format it's going to be challenging for the Twins to get more than 2 all-stars, so maybe evaluating success purely on all-star appearances doesn't make much sense. Reading your evaluation, someone unfamiliar with the twins might think they have no quality home-grown talent...but that's simply wrong. SWR might not have been drafted by the twins, but they certainly developed him and he's been a quality starter. Griffin Jax wasn't drafted by this regime, but they turned him into an elite reliever. they traded for Duran and developed him into an elite reliever too. Traded for and developed Alcala. Drafted Sands. So our top 4 relievers this season were all developed by this front office. and these are quality players with tons of value. the idea that our farm system at the end of the 2nd Ryan era was better than it is now is a bold statement; would love to see where the facts are to back it up. Twins current farm system is a consensus top 10, and that's after graduating players like Royce Lewis, SWR, Ed Julien, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner in the last couple of seasons. the "87 wins" line is nicely arbitrary and designed to make this front office look worse than it is. because it nicely avoids the fact that the team made the playoffs 4 out of 7 seasons and pretends that there wasn't a pandemic year where literally no team could possibly win 87 games, because they only played 60. They've won the division 3 times in 7 seasons. How did we do in the previous 7? won the division once (in the first of those 7 seasons), then finished last 4 times. Didn't win a playoff series. Didn't win a playoff GAME.
  11. jmlease1
    See, you're using your own term for "replacement level". I use that term in the context of bWAR, which defines it like this: WAR Explained (v2.2): 8+ MVP, 5+ A-S, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Sub, < 0 Replacement "Replacement" level is a guy you can sign off the street and do the job just as well. Santana is sitting at 2.1 bWAR for the season already.
  12. jmlease1
    Santana is a replacement level signing? he's sitting at 2.1 bWAR right now with a 109 OPS+, despite the horrifically slow start. Instead of getting hit by the aging stick, he's been basically the same player as last season and getting paid $1M less. That's neither replacement level nor horrendous, and without him we'd be flailing at 1B this year. Need to be accurate about this stuff when evaluating the FO. Margot, Jackson, Gallo? Sure. But they were right about Santana. (I was wrong)
  13. jmlease1
    Twins are currently 11th in most cash value of players lost this season by game ($30M) and tied for 9th in most players lost to injury to date (21), and 14th in games lost to injury (1,303). Cleveland and KC are doing much better on these metrics to date. The Twins depth is definitely being exhausted and and they're struggling because of it. the starting pitching has actually held up pretty well, but losing someone like Ryan is a big blow. Losing so much time from Buxton, Correa, and Lewis (all stars, all producing very well this season when healthy) is a big blow. They've caught dings everywhere except catcher and 1B, and while they've had depth to cover, it's running out and we're stretching people. the bullpen looks gassed, and the need to hold someone like Varland ready to start is limiting the ability to get reinforcements in. They might survive this, but it won't be easy. And this is exactly why the Twins were so cautious about moving on from someone like Margot, because they were frankly worried about running out of guys. personally, I feel like this is where ownership and the front office let the team down in not getting real reinforcements for the bullpen, which turned into the biggest need.
  14. jmlease1
    I would think that Levine would be the tougher one to keep right now, because as much as he might like it here the pull to be the top dog will be strong and he's likely to have suitors in the offseason. realistically the only reason for Falvey to want to leave is if a team with significantly more resources comes a-callin', and even then it might not actually be a better job. While the Pohlads don't spend to the levels fans would want and arguably should expect...from a front office perspective they also don't get down in the weeds and much about with the baseball operation. The current front office regime has overall done a good job. there have been some misses, both on the draft & development side (cavaco & sabato, for example) and on the free agent/trade side (Mahle, Gallo). but there have been some real highs there too (Royce, Wallner, Ober, SWR, Jeffers, Miranda on the draft/dev side and Cruz, Ryan, Pablo, Gray, Correa, Duran on the FA/trade side). And the farm system looks far stronger from top to bottom than when they started, which is impressive considering how many guys have graduated. I have concerns about their ability to manage sunk costs and whether they take too many injury risks, but the former is problem for all but the richest franchises I think and the latter might just be the peril of being a smaller market team and a risk you have to accept. Their creativity in finding lesser known college pitchers that they can develop is really quite impressive. they haven't won big in the playoffs, which is a debit that can't be ignored. YMMV on how much of that is on them vs ownership, or them vs the vagaries of a small sample size playoff. Otherwise the balance sheer is pretty strongly in favor of extensions, because the only other argument you hear is related to data-driven decision-making that some people DGAF about and want a change in manager and style of play (more bunting, steals, hitting for average over power, less platooning, starters throwing 120 pitches, etc) that simply isn't going to happen with this regime.
  15. jmlease1
    Watkins is immensely frustrating as a 3B coach; he's made some real whoppers out there. Feels like a bad fit for him. A little hard to tell clearly in this case whether Watkins is reacting to Kepler or Kepler is reacting to Watkins, maybe? But feels like neither covered themselves in glory. If Kepler's going hard from the jump and aware of the situation, maybe Watkins stays confident in his signals. Then again, it's Tommy Watkins who by all accounts is a really good guy and pretty meh in terms of his stop & go signals. Maybe Rocco was mad at Kepler for not knowing the situation and going hard. Maybe he was mad at Kepler for getting into it with Watkins. Maybe he thought Kepler threw Watkins under the bus a little. Who knows. Been a pretty mediocre year for Kepler with a lot of slumps. He's looked rotten the last 2 weeks (last night against the Braves he looked like he'd never seen a slider before when he came up in the 7th) and his 5-35 stretch over the last 2 weeks has dragged his whole month right now into the trash. Plenty to be unhappy about with Kepler, who isn't not exactly having a strong walk year.
  16. jmlease1
    It's been a bummer to have Rosario miss so much time this season, was really looking forward to seeing how he would handle AA this year. Wonder if they might send him back to the AFL just to get him some ABs or suggest he play winter ball or something? felt like he was holding his own in AA before he got hurt, which seemed fine for his age 21 season. Schobel's had a pretty inconsistent year. He was having a nice bounce in August but then went into an 0-24 slump. He's got some things to figure out. Maybe AFL would be a good call for him too. Jenkins has done pretty well this season despite the time missed to injury. More than holding his own at high A, even if he's not setting the world on fire, but he's doing just fine for 19. It'll be interesting to see how fast they push him for next season because the talent is right on.
  17. jmlease1
    And as soon as Royce or someone else like him starts scowling out there, they're going to get slammed for not being happy when they're getting paid millions of dollars to play a game. (come on, we've all heard that BS before too) People can be driven to improve and work like crazy and so on and still have a smile on their face and be upbeat and positive. You don't have to be a horrible miserable cynic like me to be successful. The idea that Royce Lewis is some kind of glad-hander who dodges criticism because he smiles and works the room is ridiculous.
  18. jmlease1
    Of course, Buxton has a higher career OPS & OPS+, and despite playing 300 fewer games has a higher bWAR as well, as an even better defensive player at a more valuable and difficult position, since Kepler only played about 15% of his games at CF. Part of the reason Kepler's tenure with the Twins may end with a mild disappointment from many fans is in the end his best ability was his availability. Another part of the Kepler Reality is like many players his best years may have been 25-27, when he put up a 3.5, 4.0, and 1.0 (and if you project out that pandemic shortened year it lands around 3) bWAR, and his 30's could end up being a decline.
  19. jmlease1
    Kepler has been a good player for the Twins. For most of his career in MN he's been a quality starter and after 2019 there was belief that he could be a lot more. Instead, it was his peak, the year that combined his best offense with quality defense. he's slipped defensively as he's gotten older and seems streakier as a hitter. This year hasn't been good defensively and the offense pretty average, so he might end up a little below starting quality. I think part of what has always been at issue with Kepler is he looks great even when the results aren't the best. The swing looks sweet, he's smooth in the OF, and he looks like a big strong, fast powerful corner. If you could dream up a LH hitter from central casting, he might look just like Max. But the results have been more modest. Good, not great. better defense than offense at a position that usually needs offense. I think Kepler will get a 1-2 year deal from another team. he'd be a useful LH platoon bat on a team that can afford to throw $8M on a 4th OF who could step in and start for a while. A team might give him a starting opportunity thinking they can get him back to 2023. but I doubt it'll be with the Twins, not with Larnach & Wallner around and Rodriguez waiting in the wings, plus guys like Walker Jenkins coming up around the corner. they might offer him 1 year with a pay cut, but I doubt he'll take it.
  20. jmlease1
    Fair. and there are some other players on the roster with excellent success rates. But it does seem notable that he's already 6th on the team in steals and all of the guys ahead of him have 2-5 times as many games. I think it'd be a good add to his game if he's able to be a consistent threat on the basepaths.
  21. jmlease1
    deBarge has 11 steals in 14 games and has only been caught once. That's fun! New part of his game, or just something he wasn't allowed to show off as much in college? No complaints, I'm always happy to see aggressive baserunning paired with efficiency!
  22. jmlease1
    Nice to have a blowout win. The bats did a great job, especially Larnach, Julien, and Martin. The team wasn't drawing much for walks, but who needs them when you bang out 18 hits? Really happy to see Martin get a couple of doubles too. Wallner's HR was a no-doubter; he knew it as soon as the ball left his bat, lol. I love knuckleball pitchers, but when it doesn't knuckle it's going to get hit. A lot. A little surprised Henriquez didn't get sent out for a 2nd inning to mop it up, but with an off day today I suppose they didn't need to. he's a very frustrating pitcher with his inconsistency: he'll look great against one hitter ands then look garbage against the next. (or vice versa) probably a 4-A pitcher in the end? Bummer to have given away games in this series, but overall a successful road trip. lot of action coming through the end of the season: 3-way race for the division, good race for the wild card spots (I would not say no to Boston falling off the face of the earth though!). If the Twins can get a little healthier I think they're in good position.
  23. jmlease1
    Feels like they're going to let him finish the year in AA, and I think that's fine. The late start and injury set him back a bit, but if he finishes the season strong at AA he'll be nicely positioned to have a spring training invite and start 2025 in AAA. I mean, how much difference will it really make if he gets 2-3 starts in AAA at the end of the season? Sure do like the idea of next year's AAA rotation having Matthews, Morris, Lewis, and possibly Raya along with one from Festa/SWR/Varland. And it makes dealing Paddack and/or moving Varland to the bullpen more viable from the jump. (unless he falls apart in September, I'd be pretty happy starting next season with a rotation of Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Festa, and SWR in MLB with a bunch of legit prospects as call-ups if/when injuries and/or ineffectiveness strike.)
  24. jmlease1
    Julien had good ABs last night. Hopefully it's the start of a trend. He definitely looked like he had a plan and confidence up there. I think the second AB was the one where I thought, "that looks a LOT better from him". Took a pitch for a strike...but it was a really well-placed pitch, low and inside that would have been difficult to do anything with. Later in the AB, he gets a ball out over more the plate and put a good swing on it, had good hard contact...just happened to be too close to the CF. Much less passive, showed good zone recognition, and it was a good swing with hard contact, swinging with intent. We'll see how he goes. It's been a rough season for him at the plate, but he's better than this and I expect his talent to shine through. he's hit at every level (including last season in MLB), so this feels more like a bump that needed correction rather than a collapse or sign that he can't play at this level. He's definitely improved defensively, which is nice.
  25. jmlease1
    Jenkins seems to have settled in nicely at cedar rapids, it'll be interesting to see if his power stroke comes around more as we head to the end of the season. (I'm not worried, but it would be nice for him to rip a couple of dingers at High A before the end of the year) Curious as to where the Twins go with him next season: start back in Cedar Rapids with an early promotion, or just send him to Wichita from the jump? Props to Eeles for giving himself a chance. he's showing more pop in his bat than I think people were expecting and he's doing a fine job controlling the strike zone. but there are still going to be fair questions as to whether or not he can make the jump to MLB. He's done a great job in getting himself to AAA coming out of the Independent leagues, but if he didn't dominate at A-ball at 24, then he's not a prospect of any kind. Handling the jump up to AAA, skipping AA entirely, impresses me more. I think the AAA numbers are very good, but still a small enough sample that I'd pump the brakes on him a bit. but he sure looks worthy of a spring training invite next year (how does his bat hold up against MLB players?) and could be intriguing depth. Schobel has really heated up over the last month, and it's good to see. he'd been scrabbling this year in AA and I was wondering if he'd hit a wall. He needs to finish the season strong, but it's looking much better now. Not worried about Morris getting bit; it's going to happen. Looking forward to seeing how he responds. he's had a fantastic season regardless but let's see how he responds to a little adversity.
×
×
  • Create New...