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Following Willi Castro’s pleasantly surprising year and with other options returning to the fold, who should be the Twins’ primary utility man? Image courtesy of © John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports The “super utility” position is a new-age role, becoming increasingly common in MLB. Teams value guys who can play several different positions, because it gives them lineup flexibility and the ability to navigate injuries sustained by everyday players or to give days off to starters to prevent them from wearing down over a 162-game season. Over the last three seasons, there have been 42 player-seasons throughout MLB in which a guy got at least 400 PA and did not start the plurality of his team's game at any position. This averages out to about 1.4 players per team over those three years. The Twins had two who qualified under these parameters: Willi Castro in 2023 and Luis Arraez in 2021. Few teams, then, have embraced the utility role quite the way the Twins have. In 2022, the club's primary utility man, Nick Gordon, played in 136 of the team's 162 games. While Gordon doesn't technically meet the previously mentioned criteria due to leading the team in starts in left field, he still played all over the field, including 258 innings at second base, so I will include him under the umbrella of "utility man". When Gordon went down with a fracture in his shin in 2023, Castro assumed the utility role and went on to play in 124 games. Whether by choice or perforce, the Twins have valued the position greatly in recent years, and I expect the same in 2024. With Castro returning, Gordon healthy, and Austin Martin surging in Triple A, who should get the most playing time as the utility man? Willi Castro Castro enters 2024 coming off a career year. Finishing sixth on the team in bWAR with 2.6, he was a spark plug all year for a team that needed one at times in 2023. He played in every spot on the field besides catcher and first base (yes, he even pitched), and was second on the team in Defensive Runs Saved, with 5 on the year. Castro also provided value at the plate, posting an above-average OPS of .750. The most valuable asset Castro provided to the Twins in 2023 was his baserunning ability. With 33 steals on the season, he had 20 more swipes than the next-closest Twin, Michael A. Taylor. While the Twins could replace his production at bat, his baserunning will be the most challenging skill to replace if they decide to turn to Martin or Gordon in 2024. The downside to Castro is the narrow likelihood that he'll sustain his success. Before 2023, the only season in which he looked remotely competent at the plate in the majors was in the COVID-shortened 2020 season with the Tigers. Can Castro string together two good seasons in a row? The Twins (and Twins fans) certainly hope so, though his Baseball Savant page doesn’t look promising from a hitting standpoint. Castro will likely get the first shot at his pseudo-starting gig in 2024, but if regression hits hard, they may be forced to choose one of their other options. Nick Gordon In some ways, Gordon’s 2022 was what Castro’s 2023 was. It felt like his coming-out party. He posted a .743 OPS and was fun to watch play. The energy and excitement he brings to work every day are contagious, and as a fan, it’s tough not to root for a guy like Gordon. The problem is, outside of 2022, he hasn’t been great. In the 34 games for which he was healthy last year, Gordon posted a dreadful .503 OPS. When you pair that with the .647 OPS he posted in 2021 or his mediocre hitting in the minor leagues (high full-season OPS of .749), it makes 2022 seem like the outlier. On top of that, he’s never been much more than an acceptable fielder at any position. According to FanGraphs, in 2022, he posted -2 Outs and Runs Above Average as an infielder and was strictly average in the outfield. While Gordon may be a fan favorite, he’s an underdog to find playing time or even make the major-league roster in 2024. He could yet become a roster casualty this winter. Austin Martin Martin came to the Twins at the 2021 deadline as a part of the Jose Berrios trade. At the time of the trade, many regarded Martin among the top prospects in the game. As the No. 5 overall pick in the 2020 Draft out of Vanderbilt, he boasted the skillset and tools to become a successful everyday big-leaguer. However, since entering the Twins organization, Martin has experienced his share of struggles. In his first full season in the organization, Martin posted a .685 OPS, mostly at Double A, leaving many questioning whether he would pan out. Hope was restored, to an extent, when Martin posted a .936 OPS in 21 games in the Arizona Fall League. His fall performance and ability to play both infield and outfield would lead some to project Martin as a sneaky option to find his way onto the Twins roster in 2023 as a utility player. After Martin’s 2023 got off to a rocky start, he came on strong in the second half of the season and ended with a .791 OPS on the year in Triple A. It seemed to all come together for him at the end of the season, and he showed he may be nearing his MLB debut. The biggest con for Martin is the unknown. He’s had a roller coaster of a career in the minors, so the Twins don’t know what they’d get out of him. He possesses the skills and pedigree to be the best of the three options, but he could also be the worst, depending on whether he's able to come as advertised. The utility position has become a staple for many MLB teams, including the Twins. Castro will likely get the Opening Day nod as the team’s utility man, due to his successful 2023 season, but there may be competition for the spot if he regresses. Gordon and Martin will fight to find playing time, and Castro's playing time might be the turf they can most easily invade. Who is the Twins' best option to hold down the utility role for the majority of 2024? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! Go, Twins! View full article

Two formulations have the lion's share of the market for Wins Above Replacement player metrics on the baseball internet. There's a third robust model out there, though, and studying it can help us see why teams' choices sometimes defy the orthodoxy prescribed by the first two. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Though no longer the top destination for statistically-inclined baseball fans online, Baseball Prospectus was the first site to publish and maintain what we now know as WAR--though they have always called it WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), and continue to do so. They now have a suite of rigorously-derived, state-of-the-art metrics designed to quantify each player's contributions within pitching (Deserved Run Average, or DRA), hitting (Deserved Runs Created, or DRC), and fielding (Defensive Runs Prevented, or DRP). Unlike (for instance) Baseball Reference's and FanGraphs's offensive stats, DRC (and its well-adjusted cousin, DRC+) does not rely solely on actual results, adjusted for league and park factors. Unlike either other site's pitching value estimators, DRA (and DRA-) doesn't focus on actual runs allowed or on fielding-independent pitching (FIP). Unlike Statcast-fueled expected statistics you can find on Baseball Savant, none of these stats are directly adjusted based on the difference between actual outcomes and the average ones on similar batted balls (or opponents' batted balls). Instead, these stats take a more granular, less dogmatic approach. Every plate appearance is accounted for in full. Thus, the framework accounts for the level of opposition and the friendliness of the circumstance in every opportunity being evaluated. This can lead to numbers that deviate sharply from what we saw actually happen, and that always makes fans uneasy, but again, teams sometimes make choices we consider inscrutable. It's by digging deeper into the data and seeing when a player's latent talent and actual contribution might differ from their surface-level production that we can start to explain (or even anticipate) those seemingly peculiar calls. Let's look at some places where the Twins' D-suite numbers and Baseball Prospectus WARP tell an importantly different story than the one more widely-embraced stats have been telling. View full article

The Minnesota Twins came into the 2023 season with Nick Gordon penned in as their utility man. After being the fifth overall pick during the 2014 draft, he'd finally found his footing at the highest level with a nice 2022 season. The year played out differently than planned, though, and now questions about his future are impossible to ignore. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - USA TODAY Sports When the Twins took Nick Gordon out of high school with the fifth overall pick during the 2014 Major League Baseball draft, they did so hoping the bloodlines from father Tom Gordon and brother Dee Strange-Gordon would produce a high-level big leaguer. It took time for Gordon to mature physically, and he had a few setbacks along the way. Reaching the majors during the 2021 season, he never found a consistent home. Moving off of shortstop full-time as he progressed through the minors, Gordon exhibited positional flexibility. Playing third and second, he also spent time in the outfield. Gordon isn’t nearly as fast as his brother Dee was, but his instincts on the grass played well. When he hit .272 across 136 games last year, we saw the makings of a true asset at the highest level. Concerns for Gordon included a lack of plate discipline and only minimal ability to drive the ball. He did register 28 doubles and nine home runs in 2022, but his 105/19 K/BB needed to be improved. Still, the 111 OPS+ earned him plenty of reason to open on the 26-man roster as Rocco Baldelli’s primary utility player. Even after Minnesota claimed Willi Castro and signed Donovan Solano, there was no reason to believe Gordon’s job was in jeopardy. Just 34 games into his season, Gordon fouled a ball off his right shin and wound up with a fracture. That injury sidelined him the rest of the season, and despite working back with a group that included Chris Paddack, Jorge Alcala, and Byron Buxton, Gordon’s body didn’t allow him to get major-league game action after appearing in six games for the Saints. Now eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career, Gordon’s projected figure checks in at only $1 million. That’s only a nominal amount over the major league minimum, so many isn't the issue as far as bringin him back. Where he fits going forward is a question, though. Even if Gordon was still a shortstop, and he isn’t, Carlos Correa is the Twins' answer. Jorge Polanco is back to play second base alongside Edouard Julien, and first base isn’t an option for Gordon. Royce Lewis plays third base; Max Kepler and Matt Wallner will occupy the corners. Gordon played well in center field and certainly could rotate in for a healthy Buxton, but banking on that isn’t a good plan, and Minnesota will be looking for a Michael A. Taylor-caliber starting-level replacement. Beyond just starting roles, things got even more cloudy when Castro popped up with a 106 OPS+ and played better defensively. He’s also two years younger, and while projected to be slightly more expensive, the floor is arguably safer. Gordon looks the part of a major-league talent, but finding a fit with the Twins seems complicated. That all but necessitates a trade, and he should have an allure to a handful of organizations. While plenty of teams have players who can fill fringe roles, Gordon has shown he can do it at the highest level, and it comes at a cost that would rival the promotion of any prospect. With dollars always looking to be stifled at the back end of active rosters, Gordon is the perfect type of asset to round out a lineup or allow for a more significant contract elsewhere. Plenty of teams look to limit spending on a yearly basis, and Gordon, representing a straightforward opportunity to do that while still having starting chops, could be a selling point. Expecting a sizable return for Gordon would be misguided. Regardless of his former prospect or draft status, that isn’t happening. He could net a nice flier or bullpen arm, though, and the Twins may be inclined to see if that type of return is something they have an interest in. What do you think? Will Nick Gordon stay with the Twins during the 2024 season? View full article

By Friday at 7:00 pm, MLB teams will need to offer their pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players a contract for 2024. The Twins have already made their official decision on two arbitration-eligible players and have to make their decisions on seven more players. And those decisions come with several question marks. (Article updated Friday, 7:40 pm after roster decisions announced) Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Article Update (7:40 pm): On Friday night, the Twins announced that they have tendered 2024 contracts to all seven arbitration-eligible players. It was also announced the Jovani Moran is expected to be having Tommy John surgery in the near future and miss the 2024 season. The Twins are trying to get him to sign a two-year minor league deal. In addition, the Twins did not tender a 2024 contract to RHP Ronny Henriquez. With Moran and Henriquez coming off of the 40-man roster, the roster is now at 36 players. There are 17 pitchers, three catchers, eight infielders and eight outfielders. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- When the offseason began, the Minnesota Twins had nine players on their roster that were arbitration-eligible. Since then, the Twins made quick decisions on two of them. Soon after their playoff run concluded, Jordan Luplow and Jose De Leon were designated for assignment and became free agents. That leaves seven players that the Twins still need to make decisions about their 2024 status. Below, I will run through these seven players and make some notes on each. Several of them may involve answering some difficult questions. A few are pretty easy decisions. Please feel free to ask questions and discuss these decisions in the Forum below. Also, generally-speaking not many pre-arbitration players are non-tendered, but it has happened. We aren't going to try to project which, if any, of those players will be non-tendered on Friday. (Players sorted by MLB Trade Rumors Projections) 2B/OF Nick Gordon Service Time: 2.136 (two years, 136 days, Super 2) Arbitration Year: 1 of 4 Age in 2024: 28 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: If this decision had to be made after Gordon’s 2022 breakout season, it would have been simple. However, Gordon’s 2023 season started out very slow, but just when he started playing well, he broke his leg and was out the remainder of the season. However, he was an impressive teammate and cheerleader for the team in October! Potential 2024 Role: Gordon can play second base and performed well in left field and centerfield over the previous year. In a pinch, he can play shortstop and third base as well. He could be the left-handed side of platoons or a more traditional utility player, capable of playing at least five positions if needed. With the emergence of Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner and Royce Lewis, and the likes of Austin Martin and Brooks Lee potentially ready in the near future, playing time may be more and more limited. Biggest Question Marks: Gordon has had several injuries in his career. And while his 2022 season was just as good as Willi Castro’s 2023 season, Castro is the better defensive player at each spot on the field. Gordon is also out of options, so he couldn’t be sent to the minor leagues by the Twins without going through waivers. Prediction: The dollars are low and Gordon should have value to teams, including the Twins. I would predict that he will be tendered a 2024 contract, although I would think that the Twins front office might be looking to trade him to a team looking for a solid utility option. A trade could happen before Friday’s deadline, or anytime after Friday (assuming he is tendered). RHP Jorge Alcala Service Time: 4.014 (four years, 14 days) Arbitration Year: 2 of 3 Age in 2024: 28 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: After pitching just twice in 2022, Alcala made the 2023 opening day roster. However, after 10 games and 15 innings, he went on the Injured List in mid-May and didn’t return until the final game of the season. However, in that game, he was displaying a fastball between 97 and 99 and a sharp slider. Potential 2024 Role: The “potential” for Alcala has been the same each of the past five offseasons. When healthy, he has a big fastball and quality secondaries that are inconsistent but have big… potential. He has the potential and talent to be the top set up man, joining Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart in getting the ball to Jhoan Duran. I’d like to see what he can do in a fully healthy season. Biggest Question Mark: Health. That’s it. Yeah, he can work on pitches too and become more consistent, but the only way to do that is to stay healthy and get the innings. Prediction: This should be a very easy decision. The Twins should absolutely tender him a contract. If it’s $1 million, that’s fine. A year ago, he avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $790,000 deal, just $70K over league minimum. With his limited pitching the last couple of seasons, I would think he would happily sign a one-year, $900,000 deal, or something in that range. Sure, the team can still look to trade him if someone sends a quality prospect. However, Alcala hasn’t been optioned in the past, so he’s got three years worth of options remaining which might allow him to work on things and get innings if he’s not with the Twins. 1B Alex Kirilloff Service Time: 2.141 (two years, 141 days, Super 2) Arbitration Year: 1 of 4 Age in 2024: 26 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.7 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Because of ongoing wrist pain, Kirilloff’s 2022 season ended after just 45 games. He had a surgery which involved shaving bones in his wrist to help alleviate the pain. The Twins brought him back slowly early in the 2023 season. He missed some time, but generally speaking, his wrist was not an issue. He played in 88 games and posted a .793 OPS with 14 doubles and 11 homers. He struggled in the playoffs and was removed from the roster in the ALDS series against the Astros due to a shoulder injury. He had surgery shortly after the Twins playoff run came to an end. Potential 2024 Role: When healthy, Kirilloff will be the primary first baseman. While his surgery turned out to be much more minor than feared, he could still miss some time early in the season. When he’s healthy, he is potentially an All Star bat. Can he still reach that level? Biggest Question Mark: That is the question. He will get healthy in time, though that has certainly become his biggest issue so far. He was pretty strictly platooned in 2023 due to some horrific numbers versus southpaws. Can he put up decent-enough numbers against same-siders to be an everyday player? Prediction: Easy decision. He will be tendered a contract. Can they negotiate a deal with him and his agent (Boras) to sign a deal for below the projection? Maybe. C Ryan Jeffers Service Time: 3.089 (three years, 89 days) Arbitration Year: 1 of 3 Age in 2024: 27 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $2.3 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: After hitting a combined .203/.277/.384 (.661) in 152 games between 2021 and 2022, the Twins brought in veteran backstop Christian Vazquez on a three-year deal. Early in the season, Vazquez was playing approximately two out of three games. However, Jeffers started playing much better behind the plate and at the plate. In 96 games, he hit .276/.369/.490 (.858) with 15 doubles and 14 home runs. His OPS+ was 134! The Twins played six playoff games in 2023. Jeffers caught all six of them. Potential 2024 Role: Aside from “normal” catcher bumps, bruises and pain, Vazquez and Jeffers remained healthy throughout the 2023 season. The two should continue to split time, with Jeffers getting the start in two out of three games. If he’s hitting like he did in 2023, he could get more DH opportunities too. Biggest Question Mark: He’s a catcher. That alone comes with inherent risks of injury. That shouldn’t be a consideration in this discussion. So the big question for Jeffers in 2024 will be if he can replicate his 2023 success as opposed to revert to his 2021 and 2022 levels. Prediction: Another easy decision. In fact, these two sides should spend time this offseason working on a four or five year deal to keep him in a Twins uniform for a long time. LHP Caleb Thielbar Service Time: 5.131 (five years, 131 days) Arbitration Year: 3 of 3 Age in 2024: 37 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $3.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Since returning to the Twins before the 2020 season, Thielbar has been remarkably consistent, and remarkably effective as a setup man for the Twins. 2023 was the first time in his career that he missed significant time due to injury. He strained his oblique, probably came back too quickly, strained it again and then took longer to return the second time. So, he only pitched in 36 games, but in his 30 2/3 innings, he had 36 strikeouts and just six walks. For the first time since his 2013 rookie season, he had a WHIP of under 1.00. Potential 2024 Role: More of the same from Thielbar. Yes, he will be 37, but he hasn’t lost velocity, and his curveball continues to be a great pitch. He should continue to get crucial spots anywhere from the sixth through ninth innings. He can also continue to be a mentor in the bullpen. Biggest Question Mark: Can he stay healthy throughout most of the season? And obviously can he remain effective for another year? And on some level, how much longer does he want to continue pitching? Prediction: Sure, there are questions, but this is another easy decision for the Twins’ brass. Thielbar will be tendered a contract for 2024. And I would like to see the two sides come together and discuss a longer-term deal. Maybe it’s a series of options. $3 million for 2024, then an option for 2025 at $3 million that vests with 50 innings. If he is between 40 and 49 2/3 innings in 2024, the option vests at $2.5 million. If he’s under 40 innings, there could be a club option at $2 million but if they decline it, there could be a player option at $1.5 million. And, of course, Thielbar would have the right to retire at any point. The lawyers could get involved to creatively work through a one-year deal with a couple of options that would keep Thielbar pitching for his hometown team until he retires. UT Willi Castro Service Time: 4.017 (4 years, 17 days) Arbitration Year: 1 of 2 Age in 2024: 27 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $3.2 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Following the 2022 season, Castro had accumulated just over three years of service time with the Tigers. He was projected to make $1.7 million in his first year of arbitration, so Detroit non-tendered him. The Twins pursued him aggressively and he quickly signed a minor-league deal with the Twins in which he would make $1.8 million if he was with the Twins all season. Because of injuries and more, Castro made the Twins Opening Day roster, and after not playing for the first several games, he found a way to spend the entire season as a very valuable role player with the Twins. He was fantastic defensively at three infield positions. He did a nice job filling in left and center field as well. In his parts of four seasons with the Tigers, he accumulated 0.4 bWAR. In 124 games with the Twins in 2023, Castro ranked third among Twins hitters with 2.6 bWAR. He played strong defense. He hit .257/.339/.411 (.750) with 32 extra base hits. He stole 33 bases in 38 attempts, an element the Twins haven’t had for a long time. Potential 2024 Role: His role in 2024 should be very similar to what it was in 2023. He can play three to five times per week all over the diamond. The fact that he is a switch hitter allows him to give guys off at different spots regardless of that day’s starting pitcher. Biggest Question Mark: He was well worth the $1.8 million in 2023, and we can all picture him continuing to be valuable, but his 2023 production was significantly better than it had been the two previous seasons when he played over 110 games. Won’t the real Willi Castro please stand up? And, how does the front office see the combination of Castro and Gordon in the organization? Can they both be on the roster and provide value? Castro is a year younger. Prediction: This is really the first one where I’ve had to think about how much I buy into Willi Castro’s 2023 season. That said, I think the Twins will tender him a contract, try to come up with a little lower than projected number, and use his switch-hitting and defensive versatility in 2024. IF Kyle Farmer Service Time: 5.129 (five years, 129 days) Arbitration Year: 3 or 3 Age in 2024: 33 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $6.6 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Farmer came to the Twins after the 2022 season from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RH RP Casey Legumina. At the time, he was technically the Twins starting shortstop. As you all know, after a long and winding road, Carlos Correa came back to the Twins which meant it was back to the bench for Farmer. That said, Rocco Baldelli kept his bench active all season. Farmer got extended time at second base early in the season when Jorge Polanco was out. He got quite a bit of time at third base in between the Jose Miranda demotion and the return of Royce Lewis. And late in the year, he played shortstop most every day when Correa was resting his plantar fasciitis. In between, he was a platoon player, often splitting time with, and mentoring, Edouard Julien at second base. Solid defense around the infield. Fantastic leader and teammate. Generally mashes left-handed pitching. Took a fastball to the mouth and went through multiple surgeries. Potential 2024 Role: It would be the same general role for Farmer in 2024. Depending on how the right side of the infield shakes out this offseason, he could platoon at first and/or second base. He can pinch hit, DH, and even be that emergency catcher. Depending on health, it is likely his playing time would decrease. Biggest Question Mark: Payroll. Just what will the Twins payroll be in 2024. We know it’s going to drop, so can the Twins afford to pay a utility player over $6 million? Unfortunately that is the reality because my sense is that everyone associated with the Twins would love to bring Farmer back. Prediction: This is by far the most difficult decision for the Twins front office. As noted, if payroll remained the same, he would very likely be tendered, but with payroll down, we can’t assume that. We know his value to a big-league roster. You would hate to non-tender him and lose him for nothing. So, I don’t think they’ll do that. I do think that they will try hard to trade him for something over the next 24-36 hours, but if they can’t before Friday’s deadline, I would guess that they will tender him a contract and continue to try to deal him throughout the offseason. There are quick glimpses at the seven remaining arbitration-eligible cases that the Twins front office have to make decisions on before Friday evening. Will they tender all seven? How many do you think they will, or they should tender? Could they be looking to make a trade or two, either of these players or of some pre-arbitration players to make additional room on the roster? How many of these players should be considered for multi-year contract extensions? Feel free to discuss below. And again, check back over the next couple of days to find out what the Twins decided to do. View full article

No position has more question marks around it for the Twins than center field. Byron Buxton has undergone a surgical knee repair once more, but leaving his CF outlook hazier than ever. Even if he does return, how long can he keep playing out there? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Michael A. Taylor made himself a standout for the Twins in Buxton’s absence this season. In the scenario that he doesn’t re-sign, the internal organizational options don’t pan out as well as having a semi-healthy Buxton or a returning Taylor. Willi Castro proved himself useful as a backup and left-handed hitting platoon in center with Taylor. But he would be very stretched as a starter and the Twins value his versatility. Then there’s Austin Martin. Martin ended the season strong with the St. Paul Saints and has set himself up well to make his MLB debut in 2024. But he’s still a player who doesn’t need to be rushed and still has elements of his game to iron out. It’s hard to see him arriving before Memorial Day, at least as a full-time option, unless injuries force the front office’s hand. Another option is Nick Gordon, who missed the majority of the 2023 season with a broken tibia. While Gordon looks to be healthy, his future with the organization is in question as Castro has overtaken him in the pecking order as the team’s super-utility man. Gordon is arbitration eligible and out of options, which doesn't help his case. Royce Lewis may be another option in center this upcoming season too. However, for now the Twins and Lewis both seem to be opposed to a return to the outfield, after his last start in center ended with a torn ACL. While he did remain healthy with his knees upon his return on Memorial Day this season, Lewis still experienced some leg issues during the season, including a hamstring strain that forced him to finish on the IL. There are many who still believe his best-fit position is center field, but it’s possible Lewis remains on the infield to ensure longevity in playing time versus risking another injury that puts him out for a long while. Removing Lewis as an option in center, that leaves Castro as the only man currently on the Twins' outfield depth chart that can hit from the right side of the plate. And the last thing the Twins outfield needs is another left-handed hitter, which makes a reunion with Taylor, or a signing like Kevin Kiermaier or Harrison Bader, the best outfield options in free agency. If payroll limitations price these higher-end free agents out of Minnesota's range, there are some lower-tier right-handed hitting center fielders that can work as a one-year deal, platoon options alongside Castro, Martin, or Lewis. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick, and even former Twin Aaron Hicks are all suitable fallback options if Taylor signs elsewhere. Pillar played in 81 games with the Braves this last season. The Braves used him more frequently as a defensive option than for his offense, as he slashed .228/.248/.416 in 206 plate appearances. Pillar would remain that defensive-first, bat-second option to keep things afloat until the Twins line up their primary center fielder. Marisnick played less than Pillar, showing up in 46 games between the White Sox, Tigers, and Dodgers this year. Marisnick had a .228/.248/.416 triple slash in 83 plate appearances. The limited playing time and injuries this season do show a decline in his performance, but Marisnick will only be 33 and has shown the ability to mash lefties. Speaking of players who showed they still have something left in the tank, former Twin Aaron Hicks. After being released by the Yankees on May 26th, Hicks revitalized his career with the Orioles on May 30th. Hicks played in only 65 of the remaining 106 games on the season but he had his best stretch of games at the plate since 2018. Hicks posted an .806 OPS in 236 plate appearances with the Birds. The switch-hitter has always been more effective swinging from the right side, and that was definitely true in 2023. He may not be the player he once was, but he’s likely the best fallback of this group if the Twins miss out on the top CF names in free agency. It bears noting that Hicks rarely played center down the stretch in Baltimore, more often starting in the outfield corners. The offseason is still young and the options in centerfield outside of Buxton are still plentiful. However, with the Twins likely to move slow and facing payroll constraints, it behooves us to become familiar with the lower tier of free agents. View full article

Each playoff game can hinge on one pitch that is called a ball or a strike. During the 2023 postseason, umpires have tended to favor Twins opponents. Let's explore the numbers. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Being a major-league umpire is no easy task. It takes years of hard work and dedication to reach the big leagues, where pitchers throw triple-digit fastballs and breaking pitches with significant movement. There are also replays from multiple angles that show whether a pitch is a ball or a strike. Major League Baseball has experimented with automated strike zones and challenge systems in the minor leagues, but the human element is still part of America's Pastime. Umpires are evaluated throughout the regular season to earn spots on the field in the playoffs. These umps are supposed to be the best of the best, but teams and fans get even more upset with perceived bad calls in October. Umpire Scorecard on X (formerly known as Twitter) tracks umpire performance throughout the season. According to their website, "The @UmpScorecards platform relies on three key metrics to analyze umpire performance: accuracy (and expected stats), consistency, and favor. These metrics are calculated in house using algorithms inspired by others in the baseball community and developed by the @UmpScorecards team." Here's how the home plate umpires have fared so far in Minnesota's 2023 playoff games. Wild Card Series: Game 1 Umpire: Andy Fletcher Overall Favor (Runs): +1.46 Toronto Umpire Scorecard's model said Fletcher favored the Blue Jays by nearly 1.5 runs, including two of the three most influential calls going against the Twins. Edouard Julien should have drawn a walk with two runners on in the bottom of the second inning. His overall accuracy was slightly below the expected accuracy, but there were rough called strikes on both sides of the zone. Wild Card Series: Game 2 Umpire: Adam Hamari Overall Favor (Runs): +0.96 Toronto In Game 2, all three impactful missed calls went against the Twins, which made a tight game even closer. Sonny Gray was impacted the most by missed calls with two balls that should have been strikes, changing the trajectory of plate appearances. Hamari missed five calls on taken pitches during the game, which hurt the Twins more than the Blue Jays. ALDS: Game 1 Umpire: Brian Knight Overall Favor (Runs): +0.43 Houston Minnesota attempted to mount a late-inning comeback when Justin Verlander was awarded the most prominent missed call in Game 1. Carlos Correa batted with two outs and a runner on first base in the sixth inning. He was rung up on a ball significantly out of the strike zone. Overall, Knight missed four pitches, and the two biggest went against the Twins. ALDS: Game 2 Umpire: D.J. Reyburn Overall Favor (Runs): +0.77 Houston The top three missed calls all went against the Twins for the second time in the playoffs. Willi Castros' at-bat with the bases loaded in the seventh inning could have extended the lead and allowed the Twins to rest some of the club's high-leverage bullpen arms. The bottom of the strike zone was particularly bad for Reyburn, who incorrectly identified 13 pitches during the game. ALDS: Game 3 Umpire: Ben Miller Overall Favor (Runs): +0.31 Minnesota Tuesday's game at Target Field was the only time during the 2023 postseason where the home plate umpire favored the Twins. Even in this game, the most impactful missed call went against the Twins with Lewis' bases loaded at-bat in the fifth inning, starting with a called strike that was a ball. Miller missed most of his calls in the upper part of the zone, but his overall zone was relatively accurate, especially compared to some of the other umpires in the postseason. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in however many playoff games remain for the Twins. Will umpires continue to make more calls against Minnesota? Will a bad call eventually cost the Twins a win? Could the Twins have won Game 1 in Houston with better umpiring? One can hope that umpiring will improve as teams move deeper into the playoffs, but the Twins have been on the wrong side of every playoff game so far. What are your thoughts on the calls discussed above? Has umpiring impacted any of the Twins' results so far? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins finished 24th overall in the MLB with 86 stolen bases during the 2023 regular season. Though this is an improvement from when they finished last in the MLB with only 38 stolen bases in 2022, their 2023 numbers lagged behind most teams. The Twins are suited to be an effective base-stealing team, and they should increase their stolen base attempts in 2024. Image courtesy of David Kohl - USA TODAY Sports A good person is someone who attempts to live a sound moral life in an entirely corrupt world. That means avoiding the temptation of morally corrupt actions like fraud, violence, lying, and theft and instead doing what is right in the name of actively attempting to be a good person. Though this is a valuable and essential standard of life to pursue, one of these morally corrupt acts has an entirely different meaning when discussing baseball: theft. Also known as "stealing" in the baseball lexicon, attempting to swipe a base is a perfectly reasonable and even encouraged act to engage and dabble with. Unfortunately, the Twins have been one of the more steal-averse teams in baseball since Rocco Baldelli took over as manager in 2019. To add context, here is where the Twins have ranked in stolen bases as a team each season since 2019: 2019 - 28 (30th in MLB) 2020 - 14 (30th in MLB) 2021 - 54 (25th in MLB) 2022 - 38 (30th in MLB) 2023 - 86 (24th in MLB) Three out of the last five seasons, the Twins have finished in last place in stolen bases in Major League Baseball. The highest the Twins have finished was in 24th place, which is still in the bottom half of the league. Twins utility player Willi Castro led the team with 33 stolen bases (SB), and if it weren't for Castro the Twins would have had 53 stolen bases during the 2023 season, which would have been last in Major League Baseball. Of course, this isn't an appropriate way to view the situation because Castro played for the Twins and had 33 steals, the butterfly effect, etc. Nonetheless, Castro, the manufacturer of 38% of the Twins stolen bases, puts their unwillingness to attempt to steal them into a fascinating light. Castro was incredibly efficient as a base stealer, stealing 33 bases on 38 attempts (87%), and finished 10th in Major League Baseball in total steals. What is interesting about Castro being a highly efficient base stealer is that he possesses an above-average but non-elite 82nd-percentile sprint speed. An 82nd-percentile sprint speed means Castro can cover 28.6 feet/second, but to be considered a player with an elite sprint speed, one needs to be able to cover 30 feet/second. So, Castro could efficiently steal a high volume of bases while being a non-elite base runner sprint speed-wise. Interestingly enough, this is the case with a handful of the nine players who stole more bases than Castro: Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves) - 73 SB, 67th-percentile sprint speed Esteury Ruiz (Athletics) - 67 SB, 97th-percentile sprint speed Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) - 54 SB, 99th-percentile sprint speed Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) - 49 SB, 100th-percentile sprint speed CJ Abrams (Nationals) - 47 SB, 82nd-percentile sprint speed Nico Hoerner (Cubs) - 43 SB, 80th-percentile sprint speed Ha-Seong Kim (Padres) - 38 SB, 79th-percentile sprint speed Julio Rodriguez (Mariners) - 37 SB, 96th-percentile sprint speed Elly De La Cruz (Reds) - 35 SB, 100th-percentile sprint speed Willi Castro (Twins) - 33 SB, 82nd-percentile sprint speed Now, while this list is populated with 97th-to-100th-percentile sprint speed base-stealers in Carroll, Witt Jr., Rodriguez, and De La Cruz, there are more players with non-elite sprint speeds in Acuña Jr. (the league leader in steals), Abrams, Hoerner, Kim, and Castro. Though these respective players all have differentiating sprint speeds, the one thing they have in common regarding stolen bases is a high number of attempts. Here is how many stolen bases (SB), caught stealing (CS), and overall successful stolen base percentage (rounded) the previously listed players had during the 2023 regular season: Acuña Jr. - (73 SB, 14 CS, 84% sucess rate) Ruiz - (67 SB, 13 CS, 84% success rate) Carroll - (54 SB, 5 CS, 92% success rate) Witt Jr. - (49 SB, 15 CS, 77% sucess rate) Abrams - (47 SB, 4 CS, 92% success rate) Hoerner - (43 SB, 7 CS, 86% success rate) Kim - (38 SB, 9 CS, 81% success rate) Rodriguez - (37 SB, 10 CS, 79% success rate) De La Cruz - (35 SB, 8 CS, 81% success rate) Castro - (33 SB, 5 CS, 87% success rate) Every player listed has at least 40 stolen base attempts and a success rate of over 75%. Having this many players steal such a high number of bases at an over 75% success rate is astonishing, and much of this phenomenon likely has to do with the MLB increasing the size of the bases from 15 square inches to 18 square inches and limiting pitchers to two pick-off attempts per plate appearance. The MLB and its consultants brainstormed and eventually created and implemented these rules to revitalize what was a dying art of stealing bases, and they have accomplished exactly that. Teams like the Cincinnati Reds (190 stolen bases in 2023), Arizona Diamondbacks (166 stolen bases in 2023), and divisional foe Kansas City Royals (163 stolen bases in 2023) have taken full advantage of these rule changes, and the Twins should heavily consider doing the same. Not only did the Red, Diamondbacks, and Royals have three of the best base stealers in the MLB during the 2023 regular season in the previously mentioned De La Cruz, Carroll, and Witt Jr., respectively, but they also had complementary players who similarly stole a high volume of bases. For example, the Reds had TJ Friedl with 27 stolen bases and a 73rd-percentile sprint speed, the Diamondbacks had Jake McCarthy with 26 stolen bases and a 98th-percentile sprint speed, and the Royals had Dairon Blanco with 24 stolen bases and a 100th-percentile sprint speed. To complement Castro and his 33 stolen bases, the Twins had Michael A. Taylor with 13 steals and an 85th-percentile sprint speed. An 85th-percentile sprint speed is in no way lackluster, but the drop off in total number of stolen bases from Friedl, McCarthy, and Blanco to Taylor is significant. To further emphasize how the Twins didn't adequately attempt to steal bases beyond Castro, here are the Twins who finished in third through fifth place leaders in stolen bases with their sprint speed percentiles: 3rd: Byron Buxton - 9 SB, 94th-percentile sprint speed 4th: Royce Lewis - 6 SB, 73rd-percentile sprint speed 5th: Andrew Stevenson - 4 SB, 93rd-percentile sprint speed The point of this exercise isn't to be hypercritical of the Twins and their unwillingness to steal bases at the same rate as other teams with fast players but rather to show that they have players with similar above-average and even elite sprint speeds to teams that steal at a high rate like the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Royals. Taylor and Stevenson might not be members of the Twins' 2024 Opening Day 26-man roster, but Castro, Buxton, and Lewis will be. The Twins will also have players who can adequately steal bases in Jorge Polanco (55th-percentile sprint speed), Edouard Julien (41st-percentile sprint speed), Max Kepler (52nd-percentile sprint speed), and potentially speedy utility player Austin Martin. Utility player Nick Gordon (49th-percentile sprint speed) is also a capable base stealer, but whether he will make the Twins' 2024 Opening Day roster is in great question. Castro, Buxton, and potentially Martin are adequate base-stealing options and should be attempting steals at a higher rate. As evidenced by their sprint speeds, Lewis, Polanco, Julien, and Kepler are not elite base-stealing options, but Acuña Jr. just stole 73 bases with a 67th-percentile sprint speed by masterfully mixing an opportunistic mindset with a high baserunning IQ. It would be a dramatic waste of time to suggest that the Twins begin attempting steal bases at the same rate as the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Royals. Instead, the Twins should aspire to become a middle-of-the-pack base-stealing team and steal 100 or more bases, which they have yet to do since stealing 135 bases in 2012. Acuña Jr., Abrams, Hoerner, Kim, and current Twins utility player Castro prove that players can be highly effective base stealers despite not having elite sprint speeds. The Twins have capable base stealers, and it would be in their best interest to become a team that attempts to steal more often during the 2024 season. Should the Twins attempt to steal more often in 2024? Who do you think should attempt to steal bases besides Castro? Comment below. View full article

The Minnesota Twins went into the 2023 Major League Baseball season with more depth than any time in recent memory. After a 2022 season in which the team fell apart due to injuries down the stretch, they looked to create internal answers. After that worked so well, does it now dictate that as standard procedure? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports A season ago, Rocco Baldelli constantly searched for warm bodies to take the field. Trying to stave off a comeback from the Cleveland Guardians, he needed pitching help and players to round out his lineup. Having depth is something that every organization strives for, but incorporating it at the highest level is something that the players bought into. Bailey Ober started at Triple-A this season despite arguably earning an Opening Day roster spot. Nick Gordon broke out in 2022 but broke his leg early in the season, but utility man Willi Castro stepped up and nearly matched Gordon's 2022 statistics. Injuries to Jorge Alcala and Jose Miranda could be withstood because of the options that Derek Falvey had put in place from the get-go. Looking to 2024, how sensible is it for the Twins to continue the same thought process moving forward? Under this front office regime, a baseline has often been established. Kyle Farmer was acquired before the Twins re-signed Carlos Correa. Sure, he could have been expanded upon, but he was also a talent capable of starting. That could also be said about Ober in the rotation, and plenty of other players over the years. With plenty of positions filled in on paper, you can bet that Falvey will be unwilling to call it good enough. Farmer and Castro are both arbitration-eligible this offseason, and their return helps to create depth in an infield that should already have Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis penned in next to Correa. Though the rotation could be rounded out with Louie Varland acting as the fifth starter, pushing him back with a Pablo Lopez-type addition would make plenty of sense. Minnesota has often shied away from spending on big arms in the bullpen. They don’t necessarily need them with Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax returning, but adding to a group should be done from the top down. Caleb Thielbar is arbitration-eligible and can be retained, and Brock Stewart doesn’t hit arbitration until the 2025 season. Expecting replications of all players isn’t straightforward, and relying on internal depth doesn’t seem to be something the Twins will try. When working with depth, you often deal with unpredictable outcomes. Donovan Solano and Castro had great years. Michael A. Taylor became the primary centerfielder. Those things are significant developments, but they can’t be the expectation year-over-year. Replicating the process of having capable bodies is a must, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the same names will provide answers. We saw internal depth keep players like Julien, Ober, or Matt Wallner down until Minnesota couldn’t help it anymore. Sometimes, that causes frustration for the fan base or player, but it also wound up being necessary over the entire season. That process bore results and should be assumed as part of fact going forward. Finding a collection of selfless players when dividing playing time is a significant part of the process. Falvey found a way to incorporate depth without those players operating as threats or hired arms on one-year deals. He’ll need to find a way to work with personalities and replicate the process again for 2024. It’s undoubtedly a good thing we have seen what that success looks like. Are you okay with additional depth pushing down initial opportunities for other players? How much do you think depth saved Minnesota this season? View full article

Just how accurate was our robot overlord? Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports If you can recall the two posts I made almost exactly eight months ago, PECOTA—the flagship projection system from Baseball Prospectus—had some thoughts regarding the Twins. Well, it had thoughts regarding every player, but we only looked at those set to don Minnesota jerseys. Enough beating around the bush: here’s how well the computer did. (After-season numbers are taken from Baseball Prospectus’ leaderboard found here for pitching, and here for hitting.) Perhaps most notable at the time was PECOTA’s optimism surrounding Pablo López, who joined the Twins as something of an unknown, possessing immense strikeout potential without the full season of unquestioned dominance. Turns out, the system was actually a pessimist: López crushed it in 2023, turning in 4.8 WARP, good for 3rd in MLB. PECOTA was also too low on Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober; all three starters bested their projections, with Gray doubling his assumed WARP. Louie Varland can claim underrated status as well; he wasn’t even in the original post and ended up as the eighth-most-valuable pitcher on the team at the end of the year. Also, the computer was absolutely correct in regards to Emilio Pagán, whose ERA (2.99) and FIP (3.26) were freakily close to his projections. Perhaps this is a lesson in patience, or—rather—that giving up a lot of homers isn’t necessarily innate in a pitcher’s DNA; this is a weird and frankly unfair game we’re fans of, and Pagán proved that the difference between a hero and a villain is often just a few feet. Finally, the Jovani Moran train may have hit a cartoonish boulder, crashed, and exploded in a fiery rage, but he actually came within tickling distance of his projection thanks to a whiff rate amongst the best in MLB. He appears a good bet to rebound next season if healthy. Now, let’s move onto the batters: It, uh, didn’t do great here! Let’s start with the positives: PECOTA nailed Max Kepler’s bounceback season, actually underselling him by a few points of DRC+, but otherwise prophesizing his best season since COVID hit. It also warned people not to be too down on Royce Lewis; we all know how that went. But… yeah, this one is a mess. Minnesota’s 2nd and 3rd most valuable position players ended up being Willi Castro and Matt Wallner, not Jorge Polanco and Carlos Correa. Byron Buxton ended up behind Christian Vázquez. Jose Miranda is lost somewhere in the Joey Gallo void. Gallo himself… it’s best to keep his name locked up in a box, lest uttering it releases curses unto humanity. I'm a little humored that Trevor Larnach couldn't escape his fate, essentially nailing his pedestrian prediction. It's clear this was a season dominated by the unpredictable; be it the rookie onslaught or Castro's elevation, the exact shape of Minnesota's offensive production was atypical, but eventually effective. ---------------------------------- Overall, I’m impressed with how accurate PECOTA was in regards to the pitching staff. Some hurlers blew past their projections, but the order was mostly in line with how the season played out. Calling on Pagán to exceed wasn’t something perhaps any Twins fan could do. Hitting was a big miss—anyone who predicted Willi Castro being Correa’s equal in DRC+ would have been hanged as a witch. Projections are helpful, but there’s a reason they play the games, and strange and unusual things happen when competitors at the highest level face off against each other. View full article

The Minnesota Twins finished out their 2023 regular season on Wednesday night. Although it didn’t end the way they had hoped, the season was nothing short of a resounding success. Looking toward 2024, it’s now worth wondering which players will be back. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Rocco Baldelli’s club was able to accomplish new heights this season because of the roster the front office built. It wasn’t only the talent that the club had at its disposal, but the way the team gelled. Veterans to rookies, and everyone in between, was able to do their job while creating a significant feeling of clubhouse camaraderie. Last week MLB Trade Rumors put out their yearly arbitration projections. The site is the gold standard for such things, and most agreements often fall closely to their suggested numbers. The Twins have nine players eligible for arbitration this offseason, and not all of them are likely to return. Here is how I see the group shaking out: Guaranteed - Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M), Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M) There are a couple of players that may trend towards this designation, but no one hits it quite like Jeffers and Kirilloff do. Minnesota spent $30 million on Christian Vazquez this offseason, and they would probably be open to parting with him this offseason. Jeffers broke out in a big way posting an .858 OPS with a career-high 96 games played. He was originally slated as the 1B to Vazquez’s 1A, but his production forced the Twins’ hand. He will be back next season as the regular starter for Baldelli. At first base, 2023 gave Kirilloff the opportunity to fully establish himself at the position. Not only did he get a late start due to injury ramp-up during spring training, but he also missed time with a shoulder issue. Offseason surgery is again on the table, and while he didn’t do anything to cement his claim at the position, his 117 OPS+ was hardly an issue. He should be expected to be the Opening Day starter at first, but finding a capable right-handed platoon partner makes a lot of sense. Highly Likely - Willi Castro ($3.2M), Caleb Thielbar ($3M) Arguably the team’s MVP for his production as a swiss-army knife, Castro joined Minnesota on a minor league deal after spending the entirety of his career with the Detroit Tigers. He posted a ridiculous 153 OPS+ in 36 games during 2020 as a rookie, but his 106 OPS+ in 124 games this season was much more impressive. He played every position except for first base and catcher while giving Baldelli a switch-hitting option throughout the lineup. He established himself as one of the best utility players in baseball and took that crown from a teammate also on this list. The only real reason Thielbar wouldn’t be back is that his number continues to creep upwards. The Twins haven’t shown an affinity to spend on the bullpen, and this would be more than a $500k jump from 2023. Thielbar’s secondary numbers were not as good as they have been, and he was uncharacteristically burned by the long ball. Houston got him multiple times in the American League Division Series, and though that can leave a sour taste, he is still one of the league’s best left-handed relievers. Somewhat Unlikely - Kyle Farmer ($6.6M), Jorge Alcala ($1M) When Minnesota acquired Farmer from the Reds, I was told that his presence was the exact type of player the franchise desperately needed a season ago. A consummate professional who can be a steadying voice in the clubhouse, he continued to go out and do his job. He provided the same offensive value he gave Cincinnati each of the past two seasons and proved invaluable as a starting-caliber shortstop when Carlos Correa missed time. His number jumping up another $500k or so makes the decision difficult, but for a team looking at a level of veteran continuity, it could be sensible to bring him back. At just $1 million, it’s not that Alcala is expensive. He has been paid at the Major League level for quite some time to produce very little, however. A mainstay on the 60-day injured list, Alcala has thrown just 19 2/3 innings since 2021. When he did pitch this year, he was not good, and the secondary numbers have never agreed with the level that the production has equated to. Minnesota could bring him back to round out the pen, but finding another Brock Stewart, Jeff Hoffman, or similar minor league signing to take a spot probably has a higher success rate. Highly Unlikely - Jordan Luplow ($1.6M), Nick Gordon ($1M), Jose De Leon ($740k) We already saw the Twins go down the hole of designating Luplow for assignment. Rather than completing the process, they kept him around and he ultimately made it through the end of the season. He was brought in off of waivers from Toronto after the front office decided against doing anything at the trade deadline. It was odd to decide the right-handed bat was necessary just days after opting against a better trade option, but he’s not someone who can’t be replaced internally. This was nothing short of a lost season for Gordon, who started badly and finished injured. He never made his way back to the Major League roster and owned a .503 OPS in just 34 games. He carved his way into the Twins' plans, despite being a former first-round pick with lost prospect luster, by creating defensive utility. Castro all but took over that role, and did so at a higher level. For $1 million it’s not going to break the bank to keep him around, but with Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, or a few other prospects close it’s hard to find room for him. Once the dangled return from the Dodgers in exchange for Brian Dozier, De Leon made his way to Minnesota as a minor league free agent. He started a game and made 11 other appearances totaling 17 1/3 innings. Despite looking like a decent relief option, he blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career. It was a disappointing result for a guy who has already battled back so many times. There’s no reason to offer him arbitration, but Minnesota could stay in touch and look at keeping him around on another minor-league deal. What do you think of the players up for arbitration from the Twins? Who would you keep and who would you part with? Share your thoughts in the comments. View full article

The Minnesota Twins have been an organization that subscribes to the idea that data can be helpful since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over. That doesn’t mean they manage as slaves to analytics, but process is something that drives results for them. Platoon lineups have been a thing most of the year, but they’ve paid off in a big way down the stretch. Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports After facing two right-handed starters against the Toronto Blue Jays, Rocco Baldelli was able to go with his ideal lineup in the wild card round. Rookies Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner were routinely deployed, and youngster Alex Kirilloff was kept in the lineup. Facing a left-handed starter, those three have all been held out of the starting lineup, and in the American League Division Series it clicked in the best way possible. The Houston Astros employ only one left-handed pitcher on the roster they brought into the postseason. Despite lefty Bennett Sousa pitching in the bullpen late for them, starter Framber Valdez was the only southpaw that Dusty Baker was going to bring with to the tournament. After facing Justin Verlander in Game 1, that meant the Twins would have their opportunity to right the ship in Game 2. Going with righties where the lefties can pinch hit, Minnesota knew where they'd turn. Baldelli saw Verlander shut his lineup down against Bailey Ober. The Astros got big hits from Yordan Alvarez, and the Twins found themselves up against a wall. Although Jorge Polanco and Royce Lewis worked to bring Minnesota back, it was too little too late. Going up against a southpaw wasn’t ideal in Game 2 considering the struggles they have presented this year, but the manager stood firm in his process. With the three aforementioned lefties all starting on the bench, Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer, and Willi Castro were all in the starting lineup. Solano worked as the leadoff batter playing first base. Castro started in left field, and Farmer worked at the hot corner moving Polanco back to second base. Although Solano couldn’t get one during his first two at bats, Farmer stepped in with Castro on and blasted a dinger into the Crawford Boxes. Valdez has been an incredible performer in the postseason, but he struggled in the second half this year and was ripe for the picking. Handing the Twins a heavy dose of curveballs early, he left a bender in a bad spot to Farmer before being taken deep. Going curveball heavy against Minnesota wasn’t a shocking strategy, but it seemed clear that the Twins were keyed in on the pitch. Forget the fact that the Astros came into Game 2 with a lead, and that Minnesota was still on the road. Baldelli has stayed consistent with process throughout the entirety of the season, and it was that steadfast belief that paid off in a big way. Farmer’s big fly was the first hit of his postseason career, and it’s arguable that he’ll never hit a more impactful one. Multiple times during the course of this season, it has seemed Farmer represents a talent worthy of so much more than his impact in the box score. As a glue guy in the clubhouse, a veteran, and a leader, he has consistently provided more than expectations may present of him, and the youth around him is getting a master class in team unity because of it. Added as fringe players to the 26-man roster, both Castro and Solano had less than straightforward paths to playing time when leaving spring training in Fort Myers. Thanks to the production they have shown throughout the season, Baldelli’s lineup has been given flexibility that may have otherwise been unexpected. The production from Minnesota’s youth this year has been noteworthy, and the rookie class alone has been nothing short of incredible. That said, seeing positive performance from fringe guys, and putting those players in advantageous positions has helped to reduce pressure from the lineup as a whole. Baldelli used his bench with Kirilloff coming in late for Solano, and Julien pinch hitting for Farmer. The latter came through with a bases-loaded single that drove in a run and gave Minnesota breathing room. Despite the lefties beginning the game on the pine, they remained focused on the task, and the Canadian leadoff guy came through just like his manager drew it up. Minnesota has employed the platoon advantage all year long, and it paid off in the spot they needed it most. With Houston having no lefties to throw the rest of the series, Baldelli can choose whatever spots he wants for his hitters. View full article

Jorge Polanco had a rough couple games at third base against the Blue Jays, should the Minnesota Twins turn elsewhere as they prepare for the Astros? Here's a look back at Polo's plays and some discussion on the alternate options. View full video

We move onto the important, but perhaps overlooked contributors to the AL Central-winning Twins. This one was purposely nebulous: is an unsung hero an underrated player? Was it someone who stepped up in another’s absence? We allowed our writers to interpret the term independently before sending in their answers. Here’s how the voting broke down: Honorable mentions (all of these players earned a vote): Caleb Thielbar Emilio Pagán Ryan Jeffers Carlos Correa Griffin Jax Kenta Maeda Royce Lewis Kyle Farmer Christian Vázquez Alex Kirilloff 5. Jorge Polanco It’s a little weird seeing a veteran rank so highly on this list, especially considering that Jorge Polanco—because of his 2014 cup of coffee—is the longest-tenured Twin. He played with Kendrys Morales and Josmil Pinto. Yohan Pino made 11 starts. Let’s just move on. I think timing is the key here: Polanco hit the IL halfway through May, came back for a week in June, and then returned at the very end of July. The team entered its “rookies dominating the lineup phase” right around this point, making it easy for Polanco’s contributions—which was a fifth full season with an above-average OPS—to be lost in the hype. There’s no glory in boring consistency, I guess. 4. Bailey Ober Bailey Ober wasn’t even a Twin to start the year. First considered a depth piece, Minnesota sent him to St. Paul to marinate, hoping that they would only need him in case of an emergency. He was up before April ended. Pitchers did as pitchers do, a little bit of badda, a little bing—ligaments tore and aches became extreme—and suddenly, Ober was back to being a Twin. It was only for a while, they said. After some time, it was clear the elongated righty was simply one of their finest starters, so he stayed with the Twins for most of the year, only going back to St. Paul for some rest at the beginning of September. It’s clear why he ranked so highly; it’s uncommon for a team to be able to reach in and extract a 3.43 ERA over 144 1/3 innings when in need. Who knows what kind of eccentric pitching experiments we would see if Ober wasn’t there to stabilize the rotation. 3. Donovan Solano “Donovan Solano???” Thought every Twins fan when news of his signing broke late in February. Perhaps you remembered his 2020 silver slugger with the Giants—and maybe the more sick amongst us even recall his time as a Marlin—but none expected the 35-year-old to be the line drive, on-base machine he was in 2023. Solano hit righties and lefties; he hit at home and when playing on the road; he hit in April, May, June, July, August; he hit in low leverage, and he hit in high leverage. He wasn’t one for slugging—the indulgence of extra-base brutishness—but, no matter the situation, Solano hit. Remarkable consistency seemed to follow Solano, whether he manned 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, making him our 3rd place Unsung Hero. 2. Michael A. Taylor When the Twins dealt for Michael A. Taylor over the offseason, I wrote an article titled Twins Make Boring, Necessary Trade for Michael A. Taylor, likening acquiring the veteran to the team eating their veggies. Snarkiness lost out today; Taylor was even more than expected. Taylor has over seven years of MLB service time, and he technically broke out in 2017 with an .806 OPS as a National, making him an atypical selection for this award. He would at least provide competence when Byron Buxton had to rest, we all thought; with visions of Jake Cave and his optimistic dives running across our minds. What we didn’t envision was Buxton never stepping foot into Target Field’s outfield, necessitating 129 games for Taylor in an effort to curb any center field leakage. He was tremendous. Putting up the 2nd highest OPS+ of his career, Taylor bashed a career-high 21 homers, pairing his typically excellent defense with a power prowess unusually potent for a 9th-hole centerfielder. Minnesota likely would have struggled without Taylor—he’ll take home our 2nd place honors today. 1. Willi Castro You’d be forgiven if you thought Willi Castro simply apparated onto the roster in spring training. He had some oxidized prospect luster from his time in Detroit as a man on their top-10 list in 2019 and 2020, but he couldn’t hit much with the Tigers, and the team cut bait following an uneventful 2022. And the Twins are ecstatic that they did. Castro made the opening day roster as an afterthought—the kind of player who sticks around for a little, is thanked for their services, and then subsequently Ryan LaMarres his way out of usefulness around the time someone else gets healthy. This kind of player is a baseball tradition. But, unlike those of years past, Castro hit, played quality defense at nearly every position on the diamond, and utilized his legs to steal bases at a rate unique amongst Twins of the modern era. He was suddenly valuable; he’s now a critical weapon for Rocco Baldelli to use in the postseason. The zenith of Castro’s powers had to be his game on September 20th, when he halted Hunter Greene’s dominance with a two-run homer, before kickstarting a 9th inning rally with a bunt hit and madman baserunning that sent him to 3rd. He scored the tying run on a Kyle Farmer single. At just 26, Castro looks like a quality contributor for years to come, and—for his efforts in 2023—Twins Daily has named him their Unsung Hero. View full article