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As first reported by Jon Heyman, then confirmed by Ken Rosenthal, the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up is a Twin no more. There's an almost golden lining to the cloud, though. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports (Thankfully, Ken Rosenthal is here to cool our senses and establish order, because how comfortable were we with Heyman as the tip of the spear?) Following a tremendous season that saw him finish as the runner-up to Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young, Gray spoke glowingly about Minnesota, emphasizing in a rare public plea that money isn’t the only factor in his decision-making process. Comfort mattered, too, and Minnesota offers that in a unique way. The Twins spun a different tale. Much of their vernacular focused on what Gray had done, and their gratitude for his veteran savvy and excellent pitching. In the moment, this seemed like pretty typical posturing. Recent reporting regarding Minnesota’s future financials revealed the team was dead serious in their callousness. Today, Gray’s exit will become final. His time with the Twins will go down as the best amongst the four teams for whom he’s pitched. Gray spread a 2.90 ERA over 303 ⅔ frames in two seasons, easily making him one of the best traded-for starters this side of Dean Chance. Among all pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched since the beginning of 2022, only Blake Snell and Justin Verlander beat Gray in ERA. He also immortalized himself in recent Twins playoff history, winning the series-clinching game against Toronto with an unforgettable pickoff of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to end his day. Because the team slapped Gray with the Qualifying Offer, the terms of his new deal will hand Minnesota a compensatory pick right after the first round in 2024. That return will soothe the loss of Chase Petty, who was a late first-round pick himself. It isn’t a perfect one-for-one—especially as Petty has worked his way to Double A hiccup-free in the Reds system—but dropping back a few spots in the draft for almost two full years of elite pitching remains an excellent deal. The Twins deserve a lot of credit for their foresight. They’ll need that wisdom again as Gray's exit—in combination with Kenta Maeda signing with Detroit—leaves a mangled 2024 rotation to deal with. Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are well-entrenched incumbents, but Chris Paddack (who hasn’t come close to his rookie-year career high of 140 ⅔ innings in four years) and Louie Varland (who pitched much better out of the bullpen in 2023) leave the back end feeling a bit shaky and untrustworthy. Sure, that describes most team’s fourth and fifth starter situations, but Minnesota would probably like to improve their depth, lest an untimely injury forces David Festa into a premature support role. Broadly speaking, the team has two options: they could acquire a top-tier starter like Corbin Burnes or Logan Gilbert, thickening their bunch at the top of the rotation at the cost of serious prospect capital. The upside in wielding another great starter is obvious, but such a deal would also protect them from the chaos and uncertainty involved in waiting until the trade deadline to make a move, where teams can hike up prices, and the only mercy is for those with stable elbows. Minnesota tried this route once with Tyler Mahle, which may push them to act now. They could also go the innings-eater route. Acquiring a Lucas Giolito or Mike Clevinger isn’t sexy, but it would at least give them extra protection if the ligament gods frown upon the team on any given day next year. This plan places pressure on Ryan shedding his gopher-ball habit—something no statistician or qualified religious figure has been able to correctly speak to the potential of. In the end, the goal should be to knock Varland into the same role Ober occupied in 2023. Either way, the team has plenty of work ahead. That work won’t reach the surface until late December or January—this is Derek Falvey we’re talking about here—but it’ll help define the move-making possible under the self-imposed economic restraints already affecting their structure. We shall see what path they take. View full article

When consuming baseball over the course of a 162 game season, multiple years in a row, it likely gets lost on fans how many people are involved in an organization beyond the 26-man roster. After a successful 2023 for the Minnesota Twins, viewing the experience through the eyes of a bullpen catcher provides some interesting insight. Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports On the field, fans watched Rocco Baldelli and the Minnesota Twins play American League Central Division-winning baseball. The 2023 squad ended an 18-year postseason drought, and they swept a Toronto Blue Jays team while besting former ace Jose Berrios in an elimination game. Behind the scenes, pitchers like Chris Paddack and Jorge Alcala were working their way back toward the active roster with an eye on competing alongside their teammates. Paddack ultimately realized the goal and looked great when deployed in September and October. As those bullpen sessions took place, I connected with Bryan Ludwig, a catcher doing it all behind the scenes. Despite working as an attorney, Ludwig has had the pleasure of working with the Twins as a bullpen catcher. Wondering what that experience has been like, what he has seen, and especially the development of arms this season, it seemed like a good time to connect. Twins Daily: How do you wind up as a bullpen catcher in a major league organization? What does your baseball background look like? Bryan Ludwig: I grew up in Woodbury and played ball at Woodbury High School ('04). I attended Augsburg University, where I played ball as a C/1B/DH (2004-2008). I also played for and ran the St. Paul Mudhens (Class A Townball) from 2005-2020, managing the team from 2010-2020. Since 2020, I've been playing summer ball in the Federal League (35+) for the Lakeville Lobos and moonlighting with Baseball 365's townball team. I've been a coach with the Minnesota Twins Youth Training Academy and the RBI Program since 2010. I work traveling camps/clinics in the spring/summer and train catchers in the offseason. I have also worked in club baseball as a head coach and trainer. Mostly with Great Lakes Baseball Academy until recently. Having a seven and nine-year-old is pulling me into the coach-dad realm lately with little league and softball. I've also been a volunteer assistant coach back with Augsburg, working with their catchers in fall ball and early spring, and since 2020, I've been working with the Midwest Speed Softball Club, training their catchers during their winter season. Rehab bullpen catching is a story of "right place, right time, right person." I had a unique skill set with unique connections that enabled me to meet a unique need. I was just a volunteer with the Twins academy in 2009, trying to log hours for my volunteer requirements at law school. The Twins' lefty specialist bullpen thrower was the one running those camps at the time, and leading up to the start of 2010, he got wind that the Twins were asking around about having a local catcher on-call to be a bullpen guy. The ask was to work with the training staff as guys rehabbed and fill in for home games as needed. This was a completely new role with the christening of Target Field. While they were in the Dome, an injury was a one-way ticket to Ft. Myers to rehab because no on-site facilities were available. With Target Field opening and a state-of-the-art training room and team doctors on-site, they needed someone who could work out with the pitchers when the team was on the road, during off days, or when the full-time bullpen catcher was unavailable or needed a break. It was late March 2010, and I got a call from the Twins bullpen guy in the middle of one of my classes. He explains the situation and asked if I would be interested in reporting to Target Field the following week to work with Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Carl Pavano on the field so they could get on the big mound before the home opener. The rest is history from there, I have been in this role since, except pausing during the pandemic when the organization limited who was in/around the clubhouse. I am grateful for the schedule flexibility my job as an attorney has provided to enable me to stay connected to the game, even in this small way. I have gotten to meet and interact with many amazing baseball people, and I hope to continue doing this as long as I am physically able. TD: When you get behind the plate for the Twins, what goes into that preparation? Are you working with anyone from the team to ensure you know what each guy wants to do? BL: There are two routes this goes: the in-game route and the rehab route. In-game, the preparation for the catcher is minimal. It is dictated by the situation and the call from the dugout. Also, each pitcher has their own preparation timeline. Unless it is a "get hot immediately" call, you have a general idea of who will be getting up depending on the inning and the situation. The bullpen coach and pitcher control the pen, but most of these guys have such a finely tuned internal clock they know exactly how long it will take to get hot as soon as that phone rings. Most guys will start throwing plyo balls and stretching around the 5th/6th inning, and once they get on the mound, it is anywhere between 15-25 pitches to get hot. The other job in-game is warming up left field. Otherwise, the bullpen is just baseball guys being baseball guys on the bench. For rehab work, it is a little more regimented. The training staff establishes a back-to-throwing program with built-in bullpen days. On those days, there is usually some pre-bullpen treatment and workout for the pitcher: long toss to a specific distance, some throw a short flat ground pen to work on release points and grip, and then a full pen on the big mound or out in the home bullpen. Everything monitored closely to ensure all the movements and metrics are improving or back to normal for a guy before they can go out on minor league assignment for a start or in-game relief work. The training staff I have worked with have been amazing at letting me use of all the tools and resources the big leaguers get to use to get ready to throw. On rehab days, I check in with the trainer to get the session plan, do some light band work and stretching, get on my shins, and head out to the first baseline for long toss. (I'm a Minnesota Townballer. Show-n-go is how we roll.) TD: This season, we saw the Twins put together one of their best starting rotations in franchise history. What was it like to work with those guys, and how was their stuff different than what you had seen in the past? BL: There is no denying that this was one of the most talented staffs the Twins have had in a long time. Aside from pure talent, one of the things that made this staff unique is that each pitcher, starting or relief, was uniquely complimentary to every one of the other guys on the roster. Pablo Lopez and Jhoan Duran did it with power and flair, Sonny Gray and Caleb Thielbar were bulldogs with control and finesse. Up and down the staff, there was a near-perfect balance of power and finesse, and guys like Pablo and Sonny took the lead on establishing a bulldog mentality across the staff. As an inside-outside observer, there were no wasted opportunities, and they attacked offenses versus just trying to hold an offense off. A lot of credit also goes to the Twins pitching coaches who fostered and supported that approach and gave all of these guys the tools and information necessary to find another edge or slight adjustment to add to their personal pitch arsenal. When you've seen big league "stuff," it is all elite, and pitching has outpaced hitting in how it is tracked, analyzed, and adjusted. I can talk about my thoughts on that for hours. Still, I think what made this staff so difficult was the consistency of its makeup that gave opposing offenses the sense that getting a starter out of a game only meant a constant barrage of difficult arms from the pen and on the days the starters went deep, they were equally unhittable. TD: Having done work with some of the guys rehabbing with the intention of making it back for the postseason, what tipped you off that they may be ready? How did their stuff look? BL: There are all kinds of measurables and metrics (spin rate, pitch depth, pitch shape, velocity, vertical break, horizontal break, etc.) that can give the team confidence that a guy is ready to step back on a big league mound. Those are all invaluable data points, but from my position, there is also a perceptible change in how a particular pitch moves or the snap of my mitt that I can tell the last piece has clicked into place. For some guys, it's that "out pitch" that bites a little harder, that changeup that disappears like a magic trick at 59 feet, or the fastball that has little lift that tells you "this guy is back." Sometimes, it's even a simple look they give after they let go of that breaking pitch at 100% for the first time, and it has the life and movement they expect. When they start repeating that output on the rehab mound, you can visibly see a weight lifted off their shoulders. I think any catcher would agree, when a pitcher is dialed in and that glove snap is just a little bit louder, you just have the intuitive sense that no hitter will be able to touch it. For all the data and technology, there is still a lot of raw feel in the moment that informs that player that they're ready. The tech, trainers, and coaches will confirm it, but that moment is always fun to be even a small part of. TD: You have seen plenty of pitchers while working behind the plate. Is there a guy or a pitch that jumps out as something that has always just been special? BL: 2014 All-Star Game aside (that is another fun story), It is not velocity that impresses. It is the movement and pinpoint control these guys have on pitches that can move 22 inches horizontally or drop 14 inches and still catch a corner. For the Twins, if you want to talk about wipeout pitches, it is tough to beat a Francisco Liriano slider or a vintage Joe Nathan curveball. However, that Duran splinker is, in fact, some ridiculous voodoo magic. Regarding a special moment, I spent an entire summer with Michael Pineda as he rehabbed from TJ. Seeing him progress and become a force in the rotation in 2019 was incredible. That grind was real, and he poured everything he had into it. That human element gets lost sometimes with fans who don't get to see that day-to-day drive and passion first-hand. TD: For Minnesota going into 2024, how confident should the quality of depth returning make fans feel about the pitching? Why can this group go out and again put up strong numbers? BL: It will be tough to replace some of the departing arms, but there is real buy-in from the returners to what the training and coaching staff want to develop with these guys individually and as a cohesive unit. The seasoning of some of our younger arms, along with the sustained presence of key vets, makes for a firm foundation to build off of the successes of this season. The bullpen will remain a force, and will be anchored by one of the most electric closers in the game (Duran), but Paddack is the guy I am most excited about. It is a bit of a wild card at this point, but if the Twins don't re-sign Gray and assuming a healthy season, I think his range of outcomes starts at something like 70-80% of what Sonny gave this rotation to a seamless replacement from Paddack in 2024. In both circumstances, Twins fans should be excited by that. TD: End it with something fun. What has been one of the best moments or stories you can share since working in this role? BL: I had the honor of serving as one of the bullpen catchers during All-Star Weekend in 2014. I was assigned to the World team during the Futures Game and the American League during the workout day, Home Run Derby, and All-Star Game. I was in the World bullpen for the Futures game and got to warm up a young stud named Jose Berrios before his start. This is where I have to get romantic about baseball because it is rare that you recognize one of those "stop and take it in" moments, but that was certainly it. During the game, I got to work with players who span the globe, some of whom didn't speak English. Each of the pins on the globe, MLB team affiliations, and varied languages didn't matter on that day because we all spoke the same language of baseball. There were no cross-ups. No missed signs. Just a couple of guys having a catch on a warm July evening with each new pitcher that entered the game. There are many other moments and experiences from that weekend and the years of being granted the opportunity to strap on the gear and play this small role with my favorite childhood team. That particular experience sits at the top for me because it was the perfect baseball microcosm. At the end of the day, players will come and go, and teams will rise and fall, but the game holds this baseball community together. The game lights us up every February as teams report to Spring Training and a new season begins. From the tee-baller in a jersey five sizes too big to the big leaguer catching the last out of the World Series, the game is the heartbeat. **** Baseball is a sport everyone experiences differently, and the barrier to entry is so low. While mastering the game is an art form, appreciating it is beyond a straightforward understanding. Bryan Ludwig does something fun outside of his regular work schedule, and hearing how that has all played out was quite the experience. View full article

Contending teams must have a solid baseline to their roster entering the offseason. Usually, this includes a solid group of veterans with young, up-and-coming players ready to take on a more critical role. How does the Twins roster rank compared to the rest of baseball? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Last season, there were strong teams in both leagues, with three teams winning 100 games or more. The Twins finished at 87-75, enough to win the AL Central by nine games, but it was the lowest win total of any division winner. Before free agency starts, clubs must evaluate their own roster and decide on their individual needs. FanGraphs and MLB.com combined resources to compile a list of the best rosters entering the offseason. As part of these rankings, Mike Petriello used FanGraphs’ depth charts and projects to find each team’s highest needs while ranking the clubs based on their current roster. Here’s a look at how the Twins ranked and some other questions facing the club this winter. How High Do the Twins Rank? Honestly, I clicked on the article and thought the Twins would rank in the middle of the pack. So I was surprised to see that MLB.com ranked the Twins as the sixth-best roster (41.3 WAR) entering the offseason. The teams ranking higher than the Twins are the Braves (51.4), Astros (46.6), Rays (45.9), Blue Jays (42.2), and Dodgers (41.5). It’s an interesting list of teams ahead of the Twins, with three teams winning 99+ games last season and the other two being Minnesota’s playoff opponents from last season. Also, the Twins are less than 1.0 WAR from moving into fourth place. Overall, it is an exciting place to start the winter, but there are other questions to answer. How Will the Twins Replace Sonny Gray? The Twins aren’t re-signing Gray, so the club must look into other options to fill his pivotal role at the top of the rotation. Internal options exist to recoup some of Gray’s lost value, including Chris Paddack and Louie Varland. However, neither of these pitchers is expected to perform at a Cy Young caliber level, and the Twins will want at least one more playoff-caliber starter. Last winter, the club traded for Pablo Lopez and developed him into one of the league’s best pitchers. The front office is expected to attempt to trade from the club's position player depth to improve the rotation. How Can the Twins Fill Holes in Center Field and First Base? According to FanGraphs ' depth chart and projections, center field and first base are the club’s other needs. Byron Buxton didn’t log a single inning in center field last season, and Michael A. Taylor is heading to free agency. The Twins have been rumored to be interested in Kevin Kiermaier, an elite defensive player, but he comes with his own injury history. There is a chance the Twins could turn center field over to a prospect like Austin Martin or DaShawn Keirsey, which likely wouldn’t happen until later in the season. The Twins received positive news regarding Alex Kirilloff’s shoulder surgery, giving hope that he can fully recover and produce at the big-league level. He’s missed significant time in recent seasons with various injuries, so his inclusion in the line-up is not guaranteed. Minnesota can try to work Jose Miranda back into the mix at first base after he missed time with his own shoulder injury. Another option is to give Edouard Julien more time at first base, which seems like an appropriate adjustment for his sophomore season. Where Do the Other AL Central Teams Rank? Based on current rosters and projections, the Twins are the odds-on-favorites to win the AL Central. Cleveland, 15th overall, is the closest team to Minnesota in the rankings and sits 4.4 WAR behind the Twins. Detroit finished ahead of Cleveland last season, but the Tigers rank 23rd with a 31.7 WAR. The Royals (26th) and the White Sox (29th) rank among the baseball’s bottom five teams, with the Rockies being the lone team with a worse WAR than Chicago. The Twins should easily win a second consecutive division title in MLB’s worst division. How Does Payroll Dropping Impact These Projections? Last week, reports surfaced from the GM meetings that the Twins payroll is expected to be $15-30 million below last season’s $155 million total. The team’s current revenue tied to its TV deal is in flux for next season, which is the biggest reason for the decrease in spending. Minnesota will likely trade away veteran players like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Kyle Farmer to clear some money off the books. With less veteran depth, the Twins will likely see their projected WAR drop unless they improve their starting pitching. What are your thoughts on these rankings? Do the Twins have a top-10 roster entering the offseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

On the offseason debut of Twins Spotlight, Matt Canterino provides us with an update on his rehab and much more. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Late in September, the Twins had taken over the American League Central and were playoff-bound. After starting all season, Louie Varland was moved to the bullpen, and he aired it out, sitting in the upper 90s and breaking off some really sharp sliders. In addition, Chris Paddack came off of the Injured List. The 27-year-old from Cedar Park, Texas, hadn’t pitched since April 2022 after his second Tommy John surgery. On September 24th, Paddack ran from the Target Field bullpen to the Target Field mound, but before he could throw a pitch, the rains came, and a delay pushed back his return to MLB game action. Two days later, he finally had the opportunity. In his first inning, Paddack struck out the side and let out a yelp, releasing pent-up emotion that was fun for Twins fans to see. At that same time, Twins pitching prospect Matt Canterino was sitting in his room in Fort Myers watching the game, about 13 months into his Tommy John recovery. Was seeing that performance motivational for the 25-year-old from Southlake, Texas? “I would say it was more joy for Chris than anything. I saw his process. I saw how hard he worked every day. And I saw how much he got to know some of the minor leaguers and formed relationships with people that he didn’t have to in Fort Myers. It was a lot of joy for him, knowing it was a culmination of everything he’s been working on.” Nevertheless, seeing Paddack’s return come to fruition is something that the two Texans who grew up about three hours apart talked about while they worked and rehabbed in Fort Myers. Canterino noted, “he was a great teammate to rely upon in the process, especially because we were in fairly similar spots in rehab the entire year. I was able to bounce a lot of ideas off of him, and we were able to have a lot of good conversations about how we wanted to develop and how we wanted to be better than we were pre-surgery. I’m really thankful for that friendship.” (this video can also be found by clicking on this link. If you right-click and select Open Link in New Tab, you can watch this while continuing to read this article or others at Twins Daily.) Now Canterino is ready to show that he is back. However, let’s not minimize the timeline. The first issue came early in the 2021 season after just five (dominant) starts in Cedar Rapids. He had a 0.86 ERA, a 0.67 WHIP, and 43 strikeouts to just four walks in 21 innings. He spent the rest of the 2021 season in Fort Myers rehabbing. He worked two innings in a game for the Mussels later that summer, but it didn’t feel right. He began 2022 with the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge. He was being eased in, working three innings at a time and then four innings. However, after 11 games and 34 1/3 innings (with 50 strikeouts but also 22 walks). He went and met Dr. Meister in Texas, and while they had met before, this was the first time they had mentioned the term “Tommy John surgery.” Meister and Dr. Camp (the Twins' surgeon) were on the same page. They could give it one more try just rehabbing, but he had been doing that for a long time. Canterino had given it “one more try,” and the pain was terrible after one inning in the GCL. He had never had a complete tear, but the ligament was compromised enough. Rehab hadn’t worked. So, on August 25th, 2022, Canterino had Tommy John surgery. Dr. Meister’s timeline is a 14-month plan to return to competitive pitching. For the first six months, there was no throwing. It’s all about building strength in the shoulder, elbow, and forearm. Over the next six months, throwing is built up slowly. The first three months involve throwing on flat ground, and the next three months include a return to a mound. That leaves two months where the focus can be on a return to pitching. While he is very competitive on the mound, Canterino appreciated the process. “I am a pretty process-oriented person, and I like hitting little check marks along the way. Everything is written out and well-recorded within the rehab. The Twins do a great job of that. I was able to keep hitting those check marks and able to stay optimistic with how things were progressing.” The most challenging part, he said, was “just building up to go home for the offseason. I wasn’t building up to face hitters in any games. I still have to wait for spring training.” However, before heading to Texas for the offseason, he was able to get back on the mound and face live batters. What was the goal? What was the plan for facing live batters? “(It marks) The last step to start building up to be ready in games. So, we definitely pushed it a bit. We wanted to see where I was at so we could get an accurate judge. This is what you need to work on this offseason. This is what you need to be ready for coming into spring training. It definitely was a little bit of Let it Rip in terms of velocity and using offspeed pitches as well. So it was good.” How did it go? “I was missing bats, so that was good. I was up to 96 (mph). My slider felt completely returned to normal. My changeup felt completely returned to normal. And I was getting swings and misses on all of them. You never want to put too much stock into the results of those things, but in terms of my process, going through, getting ready, Letting it Rip, and recovering the next day, it was exactly what I wanted to do.” Canterino is set to enjoy his offseason. He’s got a couple of trips planned and will spend time with his closest support group. But he will also be working on improving to impress in Fort Myers in spring training. “I feel like I’m back to where I was, and I know that I’m going to come to spring training and be able to compete for a job and show that I can still compete at the highest level.” From Paddack’s return, Canterino notes. “This is doable. There will be ups and downs, but this is doable. You can get back, treat the rehab process with a lot of respect, and give it the attention it deserves. You can come back even better than wherever you were when you had to go down.” Canterino was the Twins second-round pick in 2019. His goal in 2023 is to get to the big leagues, where seven from his draft class have already played. He was excited to watch Matt Wallner, Brent Headrick, Louie Varland, and Edouard Julien play critical roles at various times for the Twins during the season and playoffs. “I was beyond happy for my friends that debuted this year and got to be big-time contributors both during the regular season and in the playoffs.” In conclusion, it was great to catch up with Matt Canterino. The interview is about 42 minutes long, and we talked about several other topics beyond what you read above. You’ll want to take a listen. But it was also great to see the excitement on his face and hear it in his voice as he talked about looking ahead. I’ll leave you with a few final quotes that are exciting. “I feel strong. I feel ready. This is the moment to prove it now.” “I just want to be the best teammate I can be. I just want to get back there and play baseball with the boys.” “I love baseball. I want to be able to contribute. I want to be a part of that winning culture that the Twins are establishing.” Matt Canterino was previously a guest on Episode 2 of Twins Spotlight back in October of 2020. That episode was more of a Get to Know 'em show, and as you can imagine, Canterino is fantastic at that. View full article

The Minnesota Twins knew they were going to the postseason for a matter of weeks before they had clinched the division. Working to get their roster in order for a run, they needed to work on the bullpen. Louie Varland went to St. Paul with that goal in mind, and then he proved it was an intelligent ask. What if he was too good, though? Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Louie Varland even making the big leagues is a feat in and of itself - the former Concordia-St. Paul Golden Bears pitcher was a 15th-round pick in 2019. That’s relatively rarefied air to make something out of yourself at the highest level, but if you’ve followed along, his desire to be great isn’t normal either. Last season, Varland appeared in the big leagues to pitch a game for the Twins against the New York Yankees in the Bronx. At just 24 years old and barely removed from pitching for a Division II college, he was in The Show. Posting a 3.81 ERA across five starts last season, Varland looked the part of a major league pitcher. This season, Minnesota acquired depth that would allow them to trend toward a divisional crown. They traded for Pablo Lopez to front the rotation, pushing Bailey Ober out and into Triple-A. This maneuvering also meant that Varland had slid one more rung down the depth chart. And having one of the best pitching rotations in franchise history resulted in Varland starting just ten games with the Twins in his second major league season. Wanting to bolster the bullpen for a postseason run, Varland was told to focus on letting it fly at Triple-A. He would work his way back alongside veteran starter Chris Paddack, and the bullpen was the ticket for each of them. Without needing to focus on energy conservation, Varland could air out his two-pitch mix in short burst stints (he reached 100.1 mph in his first relief appearance with the Saints in September). Debuting as a reliever with the Twins on September 6, he worked 12 innings across seven outings. He allowed only six hits and a pair of runs (both on solo homers) and posted a ridiculous 17/1 K/BB. Not only had he emerged as a bullpen arm for Rocco Baldelli, but he looked the part of an absolute weapon. As a starter, Varland had shown an ability to get outs while doing so as a fourth or fifth option in the rotation. When coming out of the bullpen, he had dialed the fastball up to triple-digits while routinely sitting around 98 mph (his fastball velocity averaged 94.6 mph in July while bumping to 97.5 mph in September). The velocity uptick was notable, but he also brandished an improved cutter, a pitch that could get in on the hands of the opposition. Before Varland agreed on the bullpen plan, he talked with Minnesota’s leadership, expressing a desire to remain a starter. "I believe the best version of myself is a starter," Varland told reporters in September. "Starters also get paid. I want to stay a starters as long as I can." Pitching out of the rotation is something the St. Paul native has always done, and it’s the same role he has worked to elevate himself to in the big leagues. Money and glory come while working every fifth day, and his preparation has been geared towards that for years. But his outstanding performance in relief late last year might be too good to ignore - and too tempting for the Twins to pass up. Speaking on the matter during a recent Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman noted just how special Baldelli believes Varland can be in relief. Convincing Varland of the same has to be part of the process for Baldelli and the Twins. Working in the bullpen after initially being a starter isn’t something new. Jhoan Duran was a starting prospect before dialing it up to 103 mph and emerging as the Twins closer. Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and plenty of other names have moved to the bullpen after experiencing life in the rotation. The bullpen is no longer banishment for less talented arms, it is a place where special talent can thrive. Over the offseason, Varland will continue operating with a plan that has him returning as a starter. He’ll eventually have conversations with multiple people involved for Minnesota, and his future role may not be decided for some time. We are likely a ways from seeing how this ultimately plays out, but adding another lockdown leverage arm to a stable with Duran and Griffin Jax seems like a come-up for the Twins. The Twins have witnessed what Varland can provide in relief, though, and that might be too hard to ignore. View full article

Sonny Gray was among the American League’s most valuable pitchers during the 2023 season. Here’s how the Twins can use internal options to replace his value on the 2024 roster. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Sonny Gray walked off the mound in Game 3 of the ALDS with his head down. The Twins had returned to Target Field with a chance to take the series lead. Instead, Gray allowed more home runs than any other game this season. It was a disappointing end to what was likely his last appearance for the Twins. Gray turns 34 next month, and he’s reaching free agency for the first time. The Twins will make him a qualifying offer that amounts to a one-year deal of around $20 million. He will decline the offer, and the Twins can receive draft pick compensation if he signs with another team. Gray told reporters that money isn’t the only factor in his search, but he wants to be fairly compensated. It seems unlikely for the Twins’ front office to give Gray a multi-year deal, so the focus turns to replacing him. The Twins aren’t magically going to find a starting pitcher who will produce a five WAR season. Instead, the team will need to piece together value from multiple players. Chris Paddack Paddack returned from Tommy John surgery in the season’s final weeks and showed some tremendous stuff in a bullpen role. Some pitchers can struggle with their command after arm surgery, but Paddack filled up the strike zone and utilized all his pitches, including an increased use of his changeup. He will likely have an innings limit in his first full season back from surgery, but the Twins managed Kenta Maeda well this season. Paddack won’t be in the running for the Cy Young like Gray was this season, but he should fit nicely into the middle of the rotation and add value the Twins didn’t get in 2023. Potential Value: +2.0 WAR Joe Ryan Ryan’s sophomore season was a tale of two halves. Before the All-Star Break, Ryan posted a 3.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a 124-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 107 innings. His second half was marred by a groin injury that he tried to pitch through with some disastrous results. In 11 starts (54 2/3 innings), he posted a 6.09 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP while surrendering 16 home runs, the same amount he allowed in the first half in half as many innings. According to rWAR, Ryan provided less value to the Twins than Brock Stewart, Emilio Pagan, and Bailey Ober. The Twins can get more value from Ryan if he can spread his first-half totals over the entire season. Potential Value: +1.0 WAR Bailey Ober Ober finished third on the team among pitchers in rWAR behind Gray and Lopez, but he left other value on the table. He started the season in St. Paul, making four starts before joining the Twins rotation. At the end of August, the Twins sent him back to Triple-A to give him time off, and he made one additional start at that level. There is no question that he would have provided more value to the Twins if those five starts came at the big-league level. Next season, there should be fewer concerns about Ober’s workload after he threw over 170 innings for the first time in his career. He deserves to be in the Twins rotation coming out of spring training, and he might have a chip on his shoulder after the way he was used this season. Potential Value: +0.5 WAR Other Options The Twins will also have other internal options to complete the back end of the rotation. Louie Varland was fantastic in his transition to the bullpen at the end of the season. Minnesota might be tempted to leave him in that role, but that likely won’t happen to start the year. He should get the chance to start and earn the fifth spot in the rotation out of spring training. Despite struggling through different parts of the 2023 season, Simeon Woods Richardson is another intriguing option. He posted a 4.91 ERA at Triple-A with a 1.50 WHIP in 113 2/3 innings. Woods Richardson was nearly five years younger than the average age of the competition at his level, and St. Paul has proven to be a hitter’s park. He won’t begin the year in the rotation, but he should factor into the equation later in the year. Potential Value: +1.0 WAR There is also a potential for the Twins to go out and add another starting pitcher through free agency or a trade. Many were surprised by the Twins adding Lopez last winter when the rotation seemed to have five viable options. Minnesota’s front office values depth, and the team’s younger pitchers might need more time at Triple-A. How do you think the Twins will replace Gray? Do they have enough value with their internal options? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

After a long road back from Tommy John surgery, Chris Paddack steadied the Twins in Game 4 against the Houston Astros. Will he be able to provide a similar presence for the rotation in 2024? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports In the early days of the 2023 season, during spring training at the Minnesota Twins complex in Fort Myers, Florida, a 6’5” figure could be seen walking. Walking with a weighted vest on. Around the parking area and on the field pregame. Walking and certainly itching to be ready to throw once again. That figure was Twins pitcher Chris Paddack. At that point, Paddack was still recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. Certainly, he wanted to nail his recovery so that he would not be taken out of action for a similar time frame again. To be able to spend 2024 Spring Training ramping up his workload to get ready to start for the Twins instead of reaching for that glimmer of hope that he might be able to do something at the end of the season as his 2023 went. For Paddack and the Twins, that slice of being able to compete was realized at the end of this season but came into a larger view during the playoffs. Paddack prepared himself and delivered when the Twins needed him to. No time bigger than in Game 4 against the Houston Astros, unfortunately, a game that we now know would ultimately eliminate the Twins from World Series contention. Paddack entered the game in the fourth inning where just two batters previously Jose Abreu took Caleb Thielbar deep to break the 1-1 tie. Now facing a 3-1 deficit, Paddack came on to face Chas McCormick and try to steady the ship. After giving up a single to McCormick, Paddack was able to calm what must have felt like a Titantic-sized ship. Paddack would finish out the fourth and go three up, three down in both the fifth and the sixth innings, which included striking out in order Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker. At a quick glance, it was a mere 29 pitches of 2 1/3 innings, but those pitches were very valuable in keeping the Twins in the game and not allowing the Astros to cause more damage. On a night when so much would go wrong, Paddack went right. At the same time, others like Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien would give glimpses of hope for the offense in 2024. Paddack can give that same sort of hope for the pitching staff. We, as fans, must remember that we are a season removed from Paddack being a piece of the Taylor Rogers trade. If healthy, he certainly could have changed our opinion of that trade significantly based on his start to 2022. Chris Paddack only made five starts, but those five starts left an impact on a struggling starting staff. His five starts fell slightly shy of accounting for a full win above replacement at 0.9 fWAR. A fWAR total that would lead the team in that metric well beyond him being injured and shut down. His actual ERA may at first seem like it could be more impressive at 4.03 but out of qualified starters would have been top-30. Paddack's expected ERA of 3.10 certainly jumps off the page and is something to be optimistic about. Not to mention, if the Twins can find something to boost Paddack’s performance, we could see a bit more from him. As a reliever, he saw an over 14 K/9 after putting up a 8.1 K/9 in 2022 and a 8.2 K/9 in 2021 as a starter. Even some marginal improvements for a now healthy Paddack could help the Twins round out a rotation looking at the strong possibility of losing one of their leaders in Sonny Gray. Of course, every team is chasing that sort of improvement from middle or back-of-rotation starters. As Twins fans, we are believers after seeing what happened when Lopez added a sweeper into his repertoire. Can the Twins catch lightning in a bottle a second time? Only time will tell. What we do know is that reportedly Derek Falvey was optimistic postgame. How do you feel about Paddack’s performance and future? Is it enough to cover for a rotation without Gray if he signs a deal elsewhere, or do the Twins need to continue and explore another addition? View full article

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo López elevated himself during the postseason, but he wasn't the only one. Here's some discussion on López, Chris Paddack and Jhoan Duran's playoff performances. View full video

With nothing to play for, the Twins decided to flex their offensive muscles against an overmatched Rockies pitching staff. Four lefty hitters contributed home runs, many of them tape measure shots, while Chris Paddack pitched an encouraging three innings in the blowout win. Image courtesy of © John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports Box Score: Bulk Pitcher: Chris Paddack 3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (39 Pitches, 27 Strikes, 69.2%) Home Runs: Trevor Larnach (8), Max Kepler (24), Matt Wallner (14), Edouard Julien (16) Top 3 WPA: Larnach (.183), Paddack (.122) Wallner (.119) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Tonight was a battle of the bullpens, featuring two teams going in completely different directions, and both with nothing to play for. In fact, Kyle Farmer and Jorge Polanco operated as co-managers for Minnesota. Much of the playoff roster implications had been either decided or will be decided based on health in the coming days. The Twins opener was Emilio Pagan, who worked a 1-2-3 inning 20 hours after closing out the opening game of the series. Matt Koch opened for the Rockies, and worked around a leadoff single to Edouard Julien before setting down the next three hitters. The first consequential outing was Chris Paddack's, starting in the second inning. "The Sheriff" looked sharp with his command; a highlight being a dotted right on-right changeup to Elehuris Montero for strike three as part of a 1-2-3 second inning to begin his night. Although his velocity topped out at 96 MPH, he used his offspeed pitches effectively. The Twins offense got to work when Colorado brought in bulk pitcher Karl Kauffmann, a right-handed rookie with the same walk and strikeout percentage (10.4%). Matt Wallner scorched a double the opposite way to score Donovan Solano, and Christian Vazquez brought in Wallner with a single up the middle against a drawn-in infield. The third inning was even better. After an Alex Kirilloff double, Solano was hit by a pitch and Wallner walked, loading the bases for Trevor Larnach. Larnach worked the count and then launched a 3-2 breaking ball into the right field stands for yet another Twins grand slam (remember when theTwins struggled with the bases loaded?), making the score 6-0. Somewhat surprisingly, Paddack was allowed to pitch three full innings, and unlike his return outing earlier this week, he remained effective throughout his appearance. When he was first brought over in the Taylor Rogers trade, Paddack was talked up similarly to Pablo Lopez- he had the fastball-changeup combo down but was working on making his breaking ball an effective third pitch. 16 months later, and with a surgically repaired elbow, Paddack's curveball was used frequently, and effectively, despite the thin air of Denver taking some of the bite out of it. He struck out four and walked none. A Julien double and a wild pitch added some insurance in the sixth inning. Max Kepler likely cemented his second career .800 OPS season later in the inning with a three-run home run to turn the game into a laugher. Not to be outdone, Wallner roped a 22 degree 2-iron 432 feet (111 MPH) in the seventh. And finally, Julien crushed a two-run homer later in the same inning 452 feet (105 MPH) to make it 14-0. The bullpen struggled after that, with Caleb Thielbar and (mainly) Dallas Keuchel allowing a lot of hard contact along with six meaningless late-inning runs. The good: Paddack made his best case for being included on the playoff roster. His fastball hasn't played up to the level of Louie Varland's, sitting 94-94 MPH, but he showed good command, used all three of his pitches and didn't give the Rockies anything to hit. Wallner continues to smoke the ball and take good at-bats, with a ringing double, walk and the aforementioned howitzer home run. Larnach's recent production is probably too little, too late. But it is nice to see him driving the ball after his struggles in both the majors and Triple-A. The bad: Kirilloff has said his shoulder injury is something he still manages. He has received a couple off days recently and was removed in the seventh in tonight's game. His removal was not necessarily related to the shoulder, and he did lace a double over the left fielder's head (103 MPH) in the third. Him feeling comfortable swinging could be a big x-factor in any extended postseason run. Caleb Thielbar gave up two long home runs, and that has been a minor issue for him. He has now given up seven home runs in just over 30 innings this year. What’s Next: Bailey Ober (8-6, 3.53 ERA) will start the final regular season game for the Twins opposing Chase Anderson (1-6, 5.42 ERA). Anderson has had some success in the big leagues, but is very homer prone. Ober will be trying to make his final case to start game one of a potential ALDS matchup. Playoff Implications: The Blue Jays lost, Houston won, Texas won and Seattle was eliminated. This means Toronto or Houston could be in play for the Twins to face at Target Field on Tuesday. The Blue Jays probably wouldn't mind dropping to the six seed, as they likely prefer to face the Twins over the 98-win Rays. Houston can win their division if they win and Texas loses, so they have incentive to use their ace Framber Valdez (UPDATE: Christian Javier will start for Houston on Sunday, leaving Valdez to start a potential game one). The Astros win the tiebreaker over Texas, but lose the tiebreaker to Toronto. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Keuchel 0 28 0 0 78 106 Paddack 40 0 0 0 39 79 Maeda 0 0 62 0 0 62 Jax 17 8 0 0 19 44 Pagán 0 18 0 9 15 42 Stewart 16 0 0 25 0 41 Thielbar 0 18 0 3 9 30 Funderburk 0 0 0 28 0 28 Durán 0 14 0 0 11 25 Varland 0 0 19 0 0 19 View full article

The Twins have a niche strength that few teams have the opportunity to utilize. Will they take advantage of it during the postseason? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - USA TODAY Sports The 162-game Major League Baseball regular season is a war of attrition. Having front-end starting pitchers and above-average hitters is crucial, but it is equally essential to succeed on the margins by having a solid bench and fortified back end of the bullpen. As the old saying goes, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. While this is true for the regular season, the postseason is an utterly different beast, especially a potential three-game Wild Card series. In contrast to the attrition-like nature of the regular season, the postseason is a flash in the pan where a team's success is contingent on the team's best players performing up to their capabilities in an exceptionally short-lived amount of time. In recent history, teams who have made deep playoff runs tend to have an exceptionally strong starting pitching rotation mixed with a productive lineup. For example, the 2019 World Series-winning Washington Nationals had aces in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg mixed with complimentary above-average arms in Patrick Corbin and Aníbal Sánchez. If the Nationals didn't have this rotation, they wouldn't have won the World Series, let alone get a postseason bid. When looking at the World Series favorites this season, the Atlanta Braves have a theoretically elite three-man rotation consisting of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton, in addition to the best lineup in recent Major League Baseball history. Now, Fried and Morton are currently on the 15-day IL and could miss some time in the postseason, but the point still stands. Like the 2023 Braves and 2019 Nationals, the Twins have above-average starting pitching options in Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober and a serviceable lineup. While the Twins' starting pitching is a strength that will likely be the deciding factor in if they can advance deep into the playoffs, they also possess a different and unique strength that has rarely been seen in Major League Baseball regular season or postseason history. That strength resides in the Twins' impressive group of multi-inning capable stretch relievers. Headlined by traditional starting pitchers in Louie Varland, Chris Paddack, and Kenta Maeda, the Twins have three multi-inning capable pitchers who could piggyback López, Gray, or Ryan as a bridge to the Twins' high-leverage relief pitchers in Caleb Thielbar, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Emilio Pagán, and closer Jhoan Duran. To illustrate how this form of bridging could work, let's look over a hypothetical situation. In Game One, Pablo López throws four innings and gives up one earned run, and the Twins have a 3-to-1 lead heading into the fifth inning. López has pitched well, but he was struggling in the fourth inning, and it might be in the Twins' best interest to take him out of the game. Instead of being forced to use Pagán, Jax, Stewart, and Duran to get through the final four innings, the Twins could instead piggyback López with one of their multi-inning relief pitchers in Varland, Paddack, or Maeda for two or three innings. Using one of their multi-inning capable stretch relievers in Varland, Paddack, or Maeda benefits the Twins in two ways. First, using Varland, Paddack, or Maeda in a multi-inning role would allow their high-leverage relief pitchers to be available in more than one or two of the potential three-game Wild Card series. Second, Varland and Maeda have proven to be effective out of the bullpen, and it is fair to assume Paddack will be, so using them in a more condensed setting would allow the Twins to maximize Varland, Paddack, and Maeda's velocity and overall stuff. It is still being determined whether this is what the Twins will do. Regardless, with Varland working exclusively out of the bullpen, Paddack activated as a reliever from the 60-day IL on Sunday morning, and the Twins announcing Maeda's move to the bullpen on Sunday evening, it appears that this is the plan they are heading toward for at least the potential three-game Wild Card series. During the regular season, the Twins used pitchers the likes of Josh Winder, Cole Sands, Brent Headrick, Jordan Balazovic, José De León, and Simeon Woods Richardson as break glass in case of emergency-type stretch relievers who would only be used if the game had become a blowout or if the starting pitcher on that particular day needed to be pulled early either due to health or poor performance. While this mold of stretch reliever worked during the regular season, the Twins look to be drastically changing the purpose of this type of pitcher, and the timing couldn't be more advantageous. What do you think of the Twins multi-inning capable stretch relievers? Should the Twins prioritize using them during the Wild Card round? Comment below. View full article

The Twins entered Tuesday night's game on the edge of "having something left to play for." It turns out that they played anyways, and played dominantly over the hapless A's. Here's how the rout went down. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober - 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K (86 pitches, 60 Strikes, 70%) Home Runs: Matt Wallner (13, GS), Alex Kirilloff (11) Top 3 WPA: Wallner (.228), Ober (.143), Kyle Farmer (.106) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The Twins looked to continue to build momentum toward next week's playoff games. An essential part of that story involved eating innings and allowing a couple of needed bullpen arms to make their returns to the mound. All of that happened, and then some! Cashing in Early Gifts A's starter Paul Blackburn quickly retired the first two batters. The following five did not go away quietly. Four straight walks plated the first Twins run. Then Matt Wallner plated four more all by himself. The Twins' offense didn't need much more, thanks to Bailey Ober's five innings of two-hit ball. But in the bottom of the fifth, Alex Kirilloff decided to go oppo-taco to steal that pretty vest back from his fellow lefty slugger. 7-0 Twins. Welcome Back Gunslinger Chris Paddack's tenure with the Twins has been a struggle. Tommy John surgery left the righty starter without a chance to help his team in either season until today. When Paddack took the mound in the bottom of the sixth, he was on fire and throwing fire. The Game Tightens and Then Loosens Paddack returned to pitch his second inning of work to much less success. The A's struck for three runs before he could escape the inning. Griffin Jax and the return of Brock Stewart handled the rest. Granted, their load was lighter thanks to Christian Vazquez and his angry response to having the bases intentionally loaded to face him. What’s Next: Operation Playoff Push continues Wednesday evening as Pablo Lopez (11-8, 3.61 ERA) works his final tune-up before the Playoffs. The A's counter with RHP Joey Estes (0-1, 9.64 ERA), with first pitch going at 6:40pm CDT. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Paddack 0 0 0 0 40 40 Winder 0 35 0 0 0 35 Durán 34 0 0 0 0 34 Funderburk 0 0 27 0 0 27 Varland 11 0 15 0 0 26 Thielbar 20 0 0 0 0 20 Jax 0 0 0 0 17 17 Stewart 0 0 0 0 16 16 Pagán 0 10 0 0 0 10 Keuchel 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Narrator: Derek Falvey, your team has just won its first American League Central title since 2020. What are you going to do next? Falvey: Well, Narrator, we have eight regular-season games remaining. Then we have some difficult decisions as we put together our Wild Card Round roster. And then, if we win that series, and a few more series, and you ask me the same question at the end of October, then I might acknowledge that I will be traveling to some big theme park located in Florida or southern California. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports On Friday night at Target Field, the Minnesota Twins clinched the AL Central division championship and a spot in the playoffs for the first time since the Covid-shortened 2020 season. Yes, there are eight more games to play, but c'mon, it's OK to start talking playoffs now, right? And to do so, let's first consider the roster. You should do this exercise with me as you read through this article. I think it will show how many difficult decisions that the front office, Rocco Baldelli and the staff create their roster. And, while some of the choices may not be difficult, it is also interesting to see how many players will likely at least be considered (or even kept around in case of injury, or to potentially be part of a following round. So, go grab a sheet of paper and a writing utensil. Now, Round 1, aka the Wild Card round, starts on Tuesday October 3rd. Our roster drops back down to 26 players instead of the 28 players that could be on the September rosters. The Wild Card round is a Best of Three series and all games will be played at Target Field. Sure, it is theoretically possible to pass all three AL West teams and jump to the #2 seed (and get a first-round bye), but it is very unlikely. In addition, that may not be decided until the very last day of the season, and we will want to have a roster established for the Wild Card scenario. If the season ended following games played on Friday night, the Twins would be playing the Houston Astros. However, over the next nine days, lots can happen and the Twins could play the Astros, Blue Jays, Rangers, or Mariners. While it is feasible that the makeup of the roster, and probably specifically the bullpen, might change slightly based on opponent, we generally just want to put the best roster out there, the roster that can win at least one, and preferably two Wild Card games. Alright, at the top of your sheet of paper, you will want to write "Pitchers" on the top left of the page and "Hitters" on the top right of the page. If you want, you can make a little line to the right of both words. The first decision you must make is the composition of your 26-man roster for Round 1. Remember that the roster can be altered for a potential Round 2. (Side note: Wouldn't it be great if the Twins played in a Round 2? I would like that!) So the question becomes, how many pitchers do the Twins need in a three-game series? Personally, I would prefer to have a 10-man pitching staff for this series (3 starters, 7 relievers), but I am also going to try to think about what the Twins might do, and I think that they may go with 11 pitchers, just in case. So, at the top-left of my page, I will have: Pitchers __11__, and on the top-right, I will have Hitters __15__. Your page might look a little different. Alright, now let's get to the specifics, starting with the pitching. The Pitchers (11) Pitching wins, right? So let's start there. Unlike previous playoff teams, the 2023 pitching staff has actually been a strength. On your paper, under the Pitchers column, write "Starting Pitchers (3)" and "Relief Pitchers (8)." You may have seven relievers, or you might has nine relievers. You should have three starting pitchers. Starting Pitchers (3): Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda Sonny Gray could legitimately finish second in AL Cy Young voting this season, and Pablo Lopez has been racking up strikeouts like Twins fans haven’t seen since Johan Santana. They are the easy choices for Game 1 and Game 2. The question, of course, is who would make the Game 3 start if it is necessary. Many believe that Joe Ryan has solidified himself as the third starter with how he has returned after his mid-season struggles. You won't get a big argument from me. I'm comfortable with Ryan too. But Kenta Maeda deserves more than a cursory look. The fact that Maeda was successful pitching out of the Dodgers bullpen in postseasons in the past should not play a factor in the decision. In fact, I think that a logical analyst could probably even make the case for Bailey Ober in that spot. In reality, you could call it a coin flip between Maeda and Ryan - I would pick Maeda - with the other joining the bullpen as a long relief option. Unfortunately, the third pitcher likely finds himself off of the Round 1 roster, yet he could also find himself starting a Game 1 in the second round, depending on the scheduling. Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Louie Varland, Emilio Pagan, Chris Paddack, Brock Stewart, Joe Ryan While he has begun to make games interesting of late, Jhoan Duran remains one of baseball’s best closers. Griffin Jax and Emilio Pagan have been there all year, and most of the time, they have been successful. Caleb Thielbar had a couple of extended stints on the IL, but he has come on strong at the end. Louie Varland has a chance to be a long-term starter in a strong rotation, but right now, he has the opportunity to come in and air it out for an inning or two. Certainly he can be the X-Factor out of the Twins bullpen! He’s been able to do that the last few weeks with the Twins. Joe Ryan gets the final spot. The team could choose to piggyback him with Maeda, or just have him ready if any of the starters need to be removed in the third or fourth inning for any reason. The interesting choices, if they go with an eight-man bullpen, remain. And, of course, lots can still happen before the end of next weekend. The Twins could go conservative. That would likely mean going with Josh Winder and Kody Funderburk. Both are still very early in their big-league careers, and both have had some successes that say they could have long big-league careers. Both would be reasonable choices. However, if it was me, I’d say go big or go home. To me, that means big arms. To me, that means taking Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart off of their rehab assignments, off of the 60-Day Injured List, and place them onto the Twins roster. Stewart has made three rehab appearances with the Saints, has shown a fastball in the upper-90s, and looks ready. Paddack hasn’t pitched in a big-league game since April of 2022 and had his second Tommy John surgery. He has been rehabbing all last season and this season, hoping to be able to help the team at the end of the season in whatever role. He has made one rehab start at Fort Myers and another at Wichita. He has tossed three strong innings in St. Paul as well. Most impressive, he’s throwing 96-98 mph, just as hard or a little harder than before the surgery. On one level, it doesn’t feel fair to the guys who have been on the active roster throughout the year. On the other side, Paddack has been working. He’s been doing his job. He has been on the team and doing what he has needed for himself and the team. If Paddack being on the roster gives the Twins a better chance for a win, then that should be the choice. Jorge Alcala hitting 97 and 98 mph in St. Paul on Friday night certainly gets his name into the conversation as well. Stick Around for Round 2, or for Emergency: Jorge Alcala, Dylan Floro, Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, Josh Winder, Dallas Keuchel, Bailey Ober. If there is a Round 2, I would think Ober should be included, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The Hitters (15) In this Round 1 prediction, we went with 11 pitchers, we can place 15 hitters on the Round 1 roster. Under the Hitters column on your sheet of paper, break it down into Catchers, Infielders, Outfielders, and Designated Hitters. I have 15 hitters on the roster, so I included three players currently on the Injured List but who all should be ready for this series. You may not want to do the same. Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vazquez Pretty easy choice here. While the playing time breakdown has shifted some throughout the season, these two have been ready to go day in and day out. Kyle Farmer can remain the emergency catcher. Infielders (6): Alex Kirilloff, Donovan Solano, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Kyle Farmer. Hopefully Carlos Correa will get back and play in a game before the end of the season. Hopefully Royce Lewis’s hamstring will be ready to go for Game 1. Platoons are good. Putting players in the best position to succeed is good. Jorge Polanco should play second base every game. Correa will play shortstop. If healthy, Royce Lewis will play third base. There will be a platoon of Alex Kirilloff and Donovan Solano at first base. Farmer can be a bench bat, and would also be the insurance for Correa at short and Lewis at third base. Willi Castro could also Outfielders (5): Matt Wallner, Michael A. Taylor, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Andrew Stevenson. Against a right-hander, I would expect to see a lineup with Matt Wallner in left, Willi Castro in center, and Max Kepler in right field. Against a lefty, it’s probably a little more uncertain. I would suggest Castro in left, Taylor in center and then Kepler in right field. Stevenson would primarily be used for pinch running and potentially late-inning defense. Taylor and Castro can be pinch runners on days they don’t start. Designated Hitters (2): Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton. Of course Julien can play second base, but in the playoffs, the switch-hitting Jorge Polanco should play there every day. So Julien should get the majority of the DH at-bats. If they face a left-hander, I have no problem with Buxton starting at DH given Julien's extreme struggles versus southpaws. In the same way that Kirilloff and Solano are a tag-team at first base, Julien and Buxton should be the tag-team at DH. In addition, I have no problem taking a chance with Buxton in a pinch-hitting role too. Stick Around for Round 2 or for an Emergency: Jair Camargo (catcher), Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, Jordan Luplow. So, what do you think about this potential Round 1, 26-man Twins roster? If you were in charge, how might your roster look different? Where are the question marks? Can this team with this roster give the Twins and their fans a playoff win for the first time in forever? View full article

At this point of the regular season, it is worth declaring the Minnesota Twins as American League Central Division winners. Their playoff odds are 100% per Fangraphs, and they will play into October. Who they take with them remains to be seen, however. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Rocco Baldelli has been without some of his key players down the stretch this year, and yet Minnesota has continued to win. Byron Buxton has been shelved despite attempting to work towards playing centerfield. Brock Stewart has been out since the All-Star Break and other regulars have dealt with their nicks. When the Twins ultimately host a Wild Card opponent for three games at Target Field, the front office and coaching staff will be tasked with bringing 26 players along for the first round. It's not a traditional roster setup, as only three starters will be needed, so how they get creative with the spots remains in the air. Here are three players that should make the cut: A Runner Minnesota elevated Andrew Stevenson to the 26-man roster after spots expanded in September. He has arguably been the St. Paul Saints best player in 2023, and with more than 200 games at the big league level, he was hardly just a feel-good story. Stevenson posted a .916 OPS at Triple-A this season, and he did so with 46 extra-base hits to his credit. His 16 home runs matched a career-best output from last year at Triple-A with Washington, and his bat was an asset. There's enough major league track record to not believe in all of the offense, but he's a great defender and steals bases. With the Saints, Stevenson was successful on 44 of 49 stolen base attempts, and he is a perfect four-for-four with the Twins thus far. Even when opposing pitchers know he'll take off, his instincts are good enough to get the job done. Austin Martin may represent a better offensive or all-around profile, but he's not yet on the 40-man roster, and it doesn't seem that Minnesota would prefer to place him there just for the final few games. Giving Baldelli a security blanket from an outfield defender standpoint while providing someone who can grab an additional 90 feet is a no-brainer for a short series where every game matters. An Extra Starter Baldelli will only need three arms when dealing with his rotation in a short series, and two of those will unquestionably be Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez. Both Cy Young candidates in their own right, Minnesota's best one-two punch will go during the first two games. From there, it becomes a question of Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober. Maeda has already pitched in relief, and moving into the bullpen makes the most sense. Joe Ryan then would get the final starting spot. What happens to Ober then becomes the question, but as the Twins have begun to protect his innings, there is only a need to do that if he will be a vital part in October. Sure, Minnesota could opt to pitch Chris Paddack or Dallas Keuchel out of the pen, but if the goal is to build the best 26-man roster, then Ober has to be on it. No matter what Paddack looks like during his rehab assignment, he's still facing minor-league competition, and his first big-league showing in more than a year shouldn't come in the biggest games. Keuchel has had moments for Minnesota, but his stuff probably doesn't play up in relief. Enter Ober, who has been cast aside twice this year and responded well each time. It's not as though Ober should be expected to see a Louie Varland-like uptick out of the bullpen, but having his arm as an option is more comforting than Paddack and more reliable than Jorge Alcala, Cole Sands, Josh Winder, or someone from that rotating group. Much of the Twins' postseason roster projection should be straightforward, but if they want to field a team with the best options for a short series, both of these players should be among the group. View full article