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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    He's been great and really improved his prospect stock. But it's still a relatively small sample and he's already rising very fast in the organization. It won't impact things significantly to have him roll a while longer in AA and figure out his defensive options, which are still a little unclear. He's not getting called up to MLB unless utter catastrophe happens so whether he's playing every day in AA or AAA for an extra month or two won't really matter much. He jumped up 2 levels in like 20 minutes last season after he was drafted, and been promoted already this year. He's doing great.
  2. jmlease1
    Feels like catcher development is something that MLB is struggling with overall. It's so physically demanding, requires a diverse and well-rounded set of skills, and there's a huge mental component on top of it...and that's just the defensive side of things. You also need these guys to develop as hitters and because of the demands of the position it's harder to get them in the lineup as often, so they might not get as many consistent ABs. Tough one to crack from a development standpoint. I think the Twins have a few options in the system now, but all of them are incomplete in one way or another. But at least they have some guys with upside and possibilities now; things got real thin for a while in the system. Interesting question on how much impact a quality catcher has on pitching development: The Bull Durham Theory?
  3. jmlease1
    What a great game by Miranda! He's definitely playing like he never wants to go back to AAA. Good to see Kepler get a couple of knocks as well; he'd been scrabbling for a while. The offense really picked it up. Just keep winning series, boys. If they keep on that path they'll be in the playoffs and be a team to contend. You can't control what Cleveland or anyone else is doing, so just keep winning series. Brooks Lee doesn't look scared, either. Keep it up, make the decision as hard as possible mah dude.
  4. jmlease1
    Glad to see GG back and doing well. He's having a solid season, needs to show better strike zone control and draw some walks, but he's developing and showing good pop in his bat. Doncon had a nice night. Seeing him flash that power stroke is important; he had been hammering the ball in Ft Myers so it's good to see him starting to swing with authority more in Cedar Rapids. Lot of upside here. Gotta love what we're seeing from Zebby Matthews. The utter lack of walks is great (lot of guys at that level are still having trouble commanding the zone) but what's better is that he's not giving up hits either. That WHIP is fantastic. He's getting Ks, he's eating up innings, and he's having a great season. I expect him in AAA next year as one of the top potential callups
  5. jmlease1
    Bummer for Royce going to the IL again, but good luck to Brooks Lee. I hope he plays so well they can't send him down. I think he's going to do just fine and it's going to be fun to see him up. I have tickets for sunday, hope he starts!
  6. jmlease1
    It's always complicated: you want guys getting stronger, being in the best possible shape, but that combined with the grind and strain of playing can lead to injuries. Some of it can be about the way they play: you love seeing a guy make a great play in the field by stretching way out and doing something amazing...but sometimes guys end up pulling something when they try to beat out a throw. I find the idea that the twins have been ignoring conditioning or not investing time in trying to keep players healthy baffling: despite what many around here may think, they're not objectively stupid and they haven't been trying to run things like their medical and training operations on the cheap (even if they have had a long history of going cheap on payroll).
  7. jmlease1
    Wallner makes sense in that we could use a LH bat with real power to balance the lineup a little against RHP, he's performing well at AAA, and played very well last season for the team. The only real call for Julien right now (who hasn't been great in AAA) is to go INF for INF without adding anyone to the 40-man. I'd add Brooks Lee to the 40-man and give him a chance to show what he can do. He could play both 2B and 3B and Castro could still get plenty of time in the OF. I'm not worried about burning an option year with him; if we need to run him back down to the minors in 2025 and 2026, then we have bigger problems. He looks ready, so let's see what we've got if Royce has to miss 3-4 weeks. But calling up Wallner wouldn't be a crime with Miranda playing so well and able to slot in at 3B again, and Castro able to drop in there too.
  8. jmlease1
    Beating Skubal is a very nice way to start the series. he's a terrific pitcher, shame Detroit isn't being stupid and dumping him for a coupe of prospects that probably won't pan out. :P Correa had a good game last night; the dinger was important but the long AB he had with Skubal in the 3rd was good too. Skubal won the battle, but Correa really made him work for it, and who knows it might have helped Lewis a little get that double. Bullpen did well to slam the door; Alcala seems to be finding a nice groove and Jax is pitching well. It's funny to worry about Duran's velocity when he's still throwing 101mph but when you've hit 104, it's still fair. but he did well too. SWR kept us in the in the game and dueled with Skubal fairly well, but he can't be very happy with giving up a dinger to Kreidler who had 1 career HR before last night and has been a bad hitter his whole career. the Malloy shot is a little more forgivable; he's got a better track record in the minors and there was no one on base but the Kreidler one made me very nervous that we were going to throw a winnable game away. I'm still leery of Margot (let a ball drop that a better OF could have made a play on, and I have zero faith in him against a righty) but he certainly did the job at the plate against Skubal.
  9. jmlease1
    It's working out well and was worth the risk. Even with the down year last season as Correa battle through plantar fasciitis, he's very likely to finish his 3rd year with the Twins having put up a ton of value for us. And while I know the idea of 1 WAR = $9M in value is just shorthand, I do think it's important to realize that it's a lot easier to find a player with 1 or 2 bWAR than it is to get one who puts up 5 or 6 bWAR, so the value really shouldn't be treated as linear. We dodged a bullet on Story, who I admittedly wanted and thought might be a viable option for the Twins, since I didn't think Correa was ever coming here. we're paying Correa big money, but we're paying it in the years where he's the most likely to produce at these kinds of levels. I love the fact that the contract declines in the out years and if it vests the team should be pretty thrilled to pay the next season. It's a fantastic structure to keep a team leader on for a long time without punishing the budget with our self-imposed payroll limits. And Correa's skill set should age fairly well, since he's not reliant on speed to begin with and a move to 3B in a few years still takes advantage of his superior arm and smart positioning. I think they bet on the right guy.
  10. jmlease1
    wow, did Joe Ryan run you over on his bicycle or something? He was clearly hurt; he went on the IL for 3 weeks so it's not like they brought him back in the minimum time. In the month before he went on the IL he gave up 17 HRs. after he came back he gave up 7 (and 3 were in a meaningless game in Colorado). So don't pretend there was no difference. Accusing a player of faking an injury is pretty big talk, especially when you have absolutely nothing to back it up. Weird flex.
  11. jmlease1
    He also got injured last season and tried to hide it/play through it. which was a dumb mistake but the sort of one that at least has a good mentality behind it. But it seems unlikely he'd eff up like that again. He's doing very well this season, and I was pleased to see him handle the early baserunners against Seattle in his last start. 3 starts with a Game Score more than 70, 9 starts with a Game Score more than 60. Only 4 with a Game Score under 50. That's a playoff caliber starter to me.
  12. jmlease1
    well, he did hit the snot out of the ball at 2 levels last season. If he could have kept that up, you'd have to consider him a top prospect because of how difficult it is to find catchers who can hit their weight these days. He's really struggling to actually get the bat on the ball this year so far, but it's the first bump in the road for him in pro ball. Let's see how he responds. Olivar is doing very well in his first try at high A this season, and I hope he can stick at catcher. the fact that he's playing 2/3 of his games there is a good sign, but he's going to need to work on controlling the running game.
  13. jmlease1
    I'll admit, I had forgotten that Larnach had gotten up into the Top 100 and as high as some had him rated. Of course the pore-2021 rankings were basically guesswork from everyone because of the pandemic since there was no minor league season. Larnach also might have been one of those guys whose development cycle got messed up because of losing the 2020 season. He ended up getting less than half a season in AA and might have benefitted from having that time to hone his approach on breaking pitches before getting thrown into the fire in MLB. he's also dealt with some injuries too. Miranda I never really worried about his ability, just whether other players had passed him on the depth chart because of his injury year in 2023. Never felt like last year's struggles were anything other than health related, but when you're playing positions that have a lot of high-level competition it doesn't take much to get pushed down. (Look at what happened to Nick Gordon, who was playing very well in AAA before another injury hit and Arraez took the opportunity and ran with it. Gordon never really got much of a chance on the dirt again in MLB) I hope Miranda spends a lot of time in the off-season working at 1B; there's a real opportunity for him there and if he can be a 1B who occasionally fills in at 3B and plays some DH he'll have a very significant role if he keeps hitting like this. The last option year really helped Larnach stick with the Twins: they didn't HAVE to decide if he was a MLB player at the start of the season and could let him recover from the turf toe, get healthy, and wait for an opportunity in the minors. Without that, there's a good chance he would have been lost on waivers.
  14. jmlease1
    Right now I'm less concerned with the results than just having Lewis pitching in games right now. Hopefully he can shake the rust off and get through a few games pain-free. Been a bit of a lost season so far, and it would great if he can get on track with a strong second half. Keaschall is doing a nice job in AA. I'll be watching to see if he can find that power stroke he flashed in A-ball, but he's doing everything else very well. Seems to be rotating between CF, 2B, and DH right now, which is good to see. Would love to know where he's looking better, on the grass or on the dirt?
  15. jmlease1
    Seattle hasn't lost a home series in like 2 months, so this is a really nice win. Good road trip too; can't complaint about going 6-3 on the road and winning all three series. Sure, would have been nice to have grabbed one of those 1-run losses, but if you're winning your road series then you're good shape as a team. Larnach is having a solid season. He's still got some things to work on, and he's probably been a bit unlucky, but he's battling and not getting overwhelmed. He was super hot out the gate when he got his chance, slumped when the league reacted to him, but he seems to be making the adjustments right now to get back on track. Saw him laying off pitches this road trip that were K's last season which is a good sign. Good to see Ryan do ok with runners on base. As long as he's not giving up the dinger when ducks are on the pond, I feel good about him. Keep winning series, boys.
  16. jmlease1
    Not too many CFs hitting this season. Judge is in a different class, but Buck should start getting his reputation back. (Bleday isn't a great defender out there, but he can hit in a year when few guys can. Oakland actually has more than one not-terrible pick this year for their token all-star, maybe?) The lineup is producing like most of us thought it could at the start of the season, albeit with some different characters in the cast. But it's awfully nice to have Correa and Buxton leading the way
  17. jmlease1
    he may be 27, but he's earned a shot. Just don't know if they'll find it for him with the Twins. I wouldn't mind seeing him get a real shot at being the 4th OF in 2025. Nice to see Severino continuing to rake. He's had a truly awesome June. Doncon seems to be settling in a bit at Cedar Rapids, nice to see him rip a dinger.
  18. jmlease1
    Excellent win. Seattle is a good team, especially their pitching. Overall a good outing from Pablo, and hopefully he's getting back to form. The dingers are a little concerning, but the solo shots won't sink you (see Ryan, Joe). Alcala is a nice add to the back end of the 'pen, so if we can get Stewart back soon and Duran's issues sorted we'll be in good shape there, especially with Jax being so dominant. Uncharacteristic struggles from Castro; no one likes to see the Golden Sombrero, but he's been so good this season you have to allow for the occasional stinker. And with Buxton on a heater right now and Carlos Santana refusing to change his Evil Ways the offense came through nicely. Winning the series on sunday would be an excellent way to wrap up the road trip!
  19. jmlease1
    Is he? seems to be about average so far this season, but it's all a small sample size. Arm appears good enough for 3B, but of course if it is too weak for 3B then 2B would be an option. (Miranda is the one with the poor arm) Royce looks like he'll have good range at 3B and he's doing a good job learning the position on the fly. Pretty much every professional talent evaluator out there thinks that Brooks Lee would be above average defensively at 2B or 3B, with several thinking he could be elite at 3B, so I'm confused why you think he's trash defensively. He's been able to hold his own at SS past people thinking he was going to get moved off it too. Teams drop players in all the time at positions they didn't play much in the minors or previously, particularly when they're moving down the defensive spectrum. Polanco had no trouble handling 2B when they moved him off SS and was immediately a solid defender there.
  20. jmlease1
    Because they would have lost him in the Rule 5 Draft for nothing if they didn't add him to the 40-man? Someone would have taken a flier on him, it's not like Sabato who was still down in AA. Maybe he makes it maybe he doesn't, but if you're a bad team why wouldn't you take a shot at him and see if you might find a hitter? We'll see how he finishes the year. If he keeps hammering the ball and has reasonable K rates then he has a chance to compete for a spot or be more than a throw-in for a trade.
  21. jmlease1
    Hopefully guys are wearing wrist guards and so forth to protect more vulnerable parts of the body. Because I suspect it's not going to lighten up much (Martin has a long minor league history of getting plunked even if it hasn't shown up so far in MLB), especially with the pitching focus on max effort. It's going to send more and more pitches into guys when they can't control it as well trying to gas it up more.
  22. jmlease1
    Yunior is on a real heater right now. But he need to sustain his production for more than just June. It doesn't have to be at this level, but right now his season is one great month: he had a terrible start to the season and even in May he was just ok. But this is what we hoped for from him. Keaschall continues to do well. I like that he's taking his walks, and I think a little more power will come along, but it's great to see him making good contact, getting on base and staying within himself. He's having an excellent season and it's hard to believe this is his first full professional season.
  23. jmlease1
    I thought Festa did ok for a first start. There's real talent there and he's got the stuff and the tools and the makeup to do just fine while Paddack is on the IL. He might go back down at that point to to finish the season in AAA/wait for his next chance based on injury but he should be able to compete for a rotation spot in 2025. AZ knows how to score runs, so this was a good test. BTW, the idea that Jack Morris "pitched to the score" has always been part of the Jack Morris Fantasy; there's little evidence that he actually did it outside of blowouts (like every other starter) but Jack's never been shy about promoting his own mythology, even if it's 100% Bee Ess. Great night for the offense and good to see contributions from all over the lineup. Sure, AZ's defense was poor, but 13 hits is 13 hits. Hopefully Correa is ok; he's been awesome. If Buxton is rolling along with him it's a great sign for the Twins. Miranda is looking great, and I love it. Sucks to see Farmer struggling so much. He's been better after a horrific start, but there's no pop in his bat, he's not hitting the ball hard and if Castro wasn't playing so well it'd be a huge hole. You have to think they'd be better off with Lee at 2B and Castro as the regular LF; while Margot is hitting LHP like he was expected to, he's still awful against RHP. It's always a little complicated with veterans like this especially onces who are great clubhouse guys, can play multiple positions, etc. Patience paid off with Santana (lot of people around here wanted him cut back in April), Margot has grown into the role he was primarily acquired for as well...how much time should Farmer get?
  24. jmlease1
    I don't mind the talk of SWR for ROY. He's been doing really well for the twins, grinding his way through games and letting his talent and work ethic shine. I've been on his corner for a while and always felt like he had the ability to get it done, but had gone through one of the more screwed up developmental processes, one that was almost perfectly "designed" to make it harder on him. Think about it: drafted at 17 shows promise at 18 in low A ball with 20 starts traded at 18 new organization bumps him up to high A immediately age 19, no minor season for COVID age 20, gets promoted again having only 6 starts in high A and not having pitched for a season age 20 picked for the Olympic team, but doesn't actually play age 20 traded again repeats a level at age 21 for the first time in his career age 21 promoted to AAA age 21 gets his first MLB start because he's been around for a while I think there was an assumption that he was experienced. But Toronto was extremely aggressive with him and I think they really blew it. they never should have jumped him to AA like they did and I think the move from the Mets to Toronto nearly wrecked his career. Props to the Twins development staff for basically throwing out 2021 and treating it as a re-set season. I'm really impressed with how he's managed to get his free passes under control this season in MLB. Lots of players see that tick up when they go to the big leagues and SWR has actually brought it down. he's always been good at keeping the ball in the park and while it would be nice to see a few more Ks, he hasn't been easy to rack up hits on. They've been careful not to expose him too much, but he's also done his part by not having two clunkers in a row this year in MLB. And it's not just beating up bad teams either: his best start was against Seattle (division leader) and while he took the loss against Cleveland, he certainly pitched well enough to win. Always liked SWR. Glad to see it paying out for him.
  25. jmlease1
    I think that's fair. I'm leaning that way as well, because we're talking about AA at this point. It's not like we're talking about a guy still down in Ft. Myers. There's only 1 stop left in the minors and if he's not going to ever get a starter's workload even at AA, then maybe it's time to shift him to relief. He turns 22 in about a month, so it's not like he's a kid any longer either, and they're going to have to make a 40-man decision on him soon too. Must be something in the medicals with him, which would be a bummer. But harder and harder to see him as a starting pitching prospect.
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