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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    WAR is a useful metric. It does a reasonable job of looking at the totality of a player (hitting, baserunning, defense, the position they play, etc) and putting it into a stat that is fairly easy for people to understand so you can compare the value of wildly different players and do it across eras, which is hard. It's not the end-all be-all but one thing it does is ignore the "halo effect" of narratives around a player who is amazing at one cool thing. Arraez is one of the absolute best bat to ball players in MLB today and he consistently hits for high average. But WAR doesn't give you extra credit for being the best at one thing, and will still deficit you for being bad at others (like not hitting for power, playing poor defense, etc). I love Arraez, and he's a useful player with an increasingly unique skill set that's probably more valuable in the playoffs than in the regular season. But he needs to really hit a ton of those singles, especially when he's not taking walks and poking out the occasional homer. WAR does a good job of showing fairly who Correa is, I think. An elite hitter with good but no longer great defense at a premium position. He's not just playing like an all-star, he's playing more like an MVP. And that's what healthy Carlos Correa does. Hopefully LEN3 is a little embarrassed by his recent bad C4 take.
  2. jmlease1
    Getting on base is literally the first component of OPS. And which is more important, moving a runner up, or scoring the runner? The "clutch" ideas aren't really borne out except in people's generally faulty memories. We remember big, important moments when a player got the job done at times and forget about the others. But time after time it's been shown that it's really more just a matter of a player being very good and getting opportunities rather than them actually performing better in the clutch. Having a lineup full of Arraez-type players might be more ascetically pleasing, but it won't be more successful or score runs over a season than one filled with ones with a higher overall OPS but lower batting averages. The most important skill for a hitter is avoiding outs. There's an advantage in doing it with hits over walks in that you can get extra bases, but that's also mitigated partially by the fact that you also get double-plays. But hitting for power also matters. It's far more efficient to move a runner over with a double than a groundout. It's easier to score 2 runs with a walk and a homer than by stringing together 3-4 singles before making 3 outs. It just is. If you have a lineup made up of Carlos Santana types who have OPSs that are 10-20 pts up on your theoretical Aaraez lineup, you will score a lot more runs. Correa being called overrated is a legacy of the Houston scandal I'm sure, but it's certainly silly. He proved he didn't need the "help" to be incredibly successful after the system was found out and dismantled, and proved it when he joined the Twins and was excellent for us in his first season. He's crushing it this year. And it's hardly his fault that MLB changed the rules so he can't play farther back to compensate for his poor foot speed and capitalize on his great arm. But even with that, he's a quality SS with an elite bat.
  3. jmlease1
    Correa is rolling right now. Love to see it. Glad to see the Twins aren't wasting it. I don't think Lopez is that far off, even if he had another disappointing start. The stuff is still there, but he's just hanging a few right now and getting punished for it. Think he'll be ok, but it;s a bit concerning. Those big bombs are really hurting right now. Impressed with the offense in how they clawed their way back into this. Did not love the clown at home plate and his ridiculous strike zone early in the game, though.
  4. jmlease1
    one of his 2 all-star years was the same year he won his Gold Glove (2021). So I don't understand your metrics here. You said "exceptional/very good". Correa was great as a rookie, playing excellent defense and hitting like crazy in only 99 games. (4.8 bWAR) and it's not like he was hurt, he played 53 games in the minors that season, destroying AA and AAA on his way up. That's 1. he followed it up with a very similar season in 2016, only this time he played 153 games, so more bWAR (7.0). That's 2. Deserving all-star in 2018. That's 3. he was awesome in 2019, but missed all of June and most of July with injury, so I skipped it. and the pandemic season was weird and he didn't hit, so I skipped it too. he was a deserving all-star in 2021. that's 4. he was great in 2022 for the Twins, even if his defense might have been a tick down. That's 5. If you want to argue he wasn't "exceptional" in all 5...ok. but to not qualify him as at least very good seems seriously unfair. It's like saying that if you're not one of the top 5 SS in all of baseball in each season it doesn't count.
  5. jmlease1
    I take midseason updates with a HUGE grain of salt, I will admit. jumping a player that they clearly had well outside their top 100 into the top 75 based on half a season? I mean, great for us if it's true but that's still hasty IMHO. And if keaschall really is getting on to prospect lists like that then this proposed trade just gets dumber and dumber.
  6. jmlease1
    he's had 5 all-star level seasons ('15-'17, '21-'22) in 9 seasons and is on pace for a 6th this year. I'd say that's more than 3 exceptional/very good seasons.
  7. jmlease1
    well, let's calm down a little on Keaschall: he's having a fine season and looks like a legit prospect, but he's not a global top 100 prospect. but under no circumstances are the Twins trading Festa in a package for a rental bat. This is a deal that looks awesome for the Mets and crap for the Twins, which is a classic Jim Bowden special. Dumbass ideas like this is why he's not in anyone's front office now and likely never will work in baseball again.
  8. jmlease1
    The Correa deal is working out fine so far. 2023 was a struggle for him because of injury, but he impressively played through it and was awesome in the playoffs, which is something this franchise really needed. This season, he looks like healthy Carlos and he's playing great. Things could always go sideways, but this was definitely a risk worth taking. Locking down SS with a player who can perform on offense and defense is something we've been missing for a long, long time. Having a elite player who we can plug in at SS every day year after year is really something most (all?) Twins fans have never really had. I'm thrilled to not be looking for the next SS. I love having a no-fear player like Correa who is so smart and engaged in all aspects of the game. He's a superior hitter, a sure-handed defender, and that arm is fantastic. He's worth it. And I think he'll earn every penny of that contract and more. I love watching him play. And that's not a small part of it: he's a player you want to see out there. It's great having that part of it too.
  9. jmlease1
    Sonny Gray is also making $60M guaranteed over the next 2 years and has an option for 2027 that will cost $5M to decline, so while they might have been able to structure a deal that would have kept the 2024 number around $10M, let's not pretend for a minute that Sonny Gray only costs $10M.
  10. jmlease1
    He looks like one of those guys that doesn't have enough control when he gets into 3-ball counts can't be sure of finding the zone unless he takes a little off, so he's either giving up hits when he dials it back or giving up walks when he stays full force. But I could be wrong. He's not giving up tons of xbh so we'll see. This was definitely his best start to the year though
  11. jmlease1
    Seems doubtful. I loved Polanco, who I think deserves consideration for the Twins Hall of Fame for his many seasons of excellent service. But he's been terrible for Seattle this season while carrying a $10M salary. Unless he turns it around drastically in the second half, they're probably going to decline his option for 2025. (he looked totally lost at the plate when he came home to play us, going 2-18 with no walks and 7 K's too and it's not like he's hit poorly at Target Field) The market was lower for Polanco than most of us here expected; the rest of the league saw a declining player who was likely to have injury problems...so far they've been right. We certainly didn't miss Urshela once Royce Lewis arrived; they played about the same about last season and Royce crushed him in every metric. And Miranda has shown why the Twins had confidence in him and were ready to move off Urshela in the first place now that he's healthy again. Urshela attracted little attention in free agency, is increasingly sliding down the defensive scale, and doesn't hit enough for the positions he's playing. he only looks ok in Detroit because of the poor alternatives and is cheap. i think both of these decisions are looking like the right ones and certainly haven't been hard to overcome.
  12. jmlease1
    Cave was a perfectly serviceable 4th OF his first 2 seasons in MN. Then he fell apart. But just because he finished poorly doesn't mean he wasn't a useful reserve when we acquired him, which was the role he was supposed to play. Gil is rolling this season, but he was a teenager with injury history (missed all of 2016) that hadn't thrown a pitch outside of rookie ball, and the injury history continued, since he needed Tommy John. Sometimes these guys eventually work out, but a lot of the time they don't. The Yankees took a flier on his talent, but it's taken 6 seasons for it to be realized. This isn't the Twins not realizing what they had and throwing away a sure thing, this is a lottery ticket coming home. That said, I hate the Yankees. I hate playing the Yankees, I hate losing to the Yankees, I hate feeling like we're never going to get a fair shake against the Yankees, I hate their stupid ballpark where the best seats are never filled for the opening pitch and seem to be half-empty most of the game, along with it's ridiculous short porch in RF. I hate the fact that they can buy themselves out of any mistake they make. I hate the Yankees. but I love Royce Lewis.
  13. jmlease1
    I'd be willing to move Raya and another prospect in the 12-20 range for Luzardo. He's having a solid season, he's controllable for 2 seasons and the window is open right now for this team. Plus, I'm not sold on Raya being able to stay healthy/pitch enough to start in MLB, so let someone else roll the dice.
  14. jmlease1
    The bullpen has been so good overall that our expectations for them have risen significantly. People get mad if anything untoward happens in the late game and our middle relief is expected to be as good as a closer. I felt good about this group coming into the season; wasn't sure about Jackson, especially because it seemed like we had few guys with options to move around, and he hasn't worked out. I thought Funderburk would do better, but he really hasn't been pitching all that long, so some patience is warranted. I think he'll be back up (unless everyone stays healthy?).But I also thought Topa was going to be a key contributor, and he's been barely missed and we've managed through missed time from Duran and Stewart pretty nicely. If Stewart can get back soonish, the right side of the bullpen looks just destructive: Duran, Jax, Stewart, and Alcala are all playoff worthy. Okert and Thielbar have been great against LH, but are getting bombed by righties; if they can get tick up closer to average against RHers then it's going to be tough for teams to get anything going against this bullpen. Really the only thing missing from this bullpen is a guy who can go 2 innings every 3-4 days if needed and bridge the middle innings on a day where a starter only goes 4-5 innings. And frankly, those aren't easy to find. It's an odd role and a lot of times the ones who show out at it end up getting higher leverage roles as 1 inning set-up men or closers. (and they're not as useful in the playoffs either) they're looking pretty good right now considering no Topa or Stewart. I didn't love how they handled Alcala earlier in the season, but they seem to have him in a 1 inning role that he's more suited towards now.
  15. jmlease1
    WAG = Wild-Ass Guess. (Think this started as military slang?)
  16. jmlease1
    I don't think moving on from Span & Revere is what killed the Twins in 2013; they were awful with a staggeringly bad rotation that relied on Correia, Pelfrey, Diamond and the smoke & mirrors of Deduno. There were too many problems in the lineup far beyond Span being gone to make up for. And the immortal Ben Revere and his career 7.9 bWAR wasn't the answer. That team was just bad. And Polanco has been worse than Julien this year, so we haven't exactly been hurt by moving on from him. And I'm still happy to have Pablo. This really doesn't resemble 2013 much at all, which was a bad team team and had been a bad team for a while and would continue to be a bad team because we couldn't develop pitching, spent little, and our best players got hurt while we got little from the farm system. This team has a winning record, is coming off a division win and some playoff success, with real pitchers and some young players rising. Julien will be ok, I think, and a reset isn't unfair. I'd like him to get a little time at 1B while he's in AAA with Brooks Lee coming up, but we'll see. It's fair to be frustrated about the Twins keeping veteran assets that aren't playing well as we get later in the season. Margot is looking better in a limited role...but it's such a limited role that I have to wonder if you can keep him around. Farmer is having the same problem. At least Farmer is still a solid defender, but if he can't mash LHP any longer he's going to be starting his coaching career sooner than maybe he planned.
  17. jmlease1
    Because the front office is extremely adverse to losing control over what they see as an asset. 2022 fell apart when we didn't have enough legitimate outfielders to hold things together (that team was tied for 1st on September 4th and finished 14 back) and they've clearly taken the position that they're never going to let the floor drop that far out again. Which I don't think is unreasonable, even if all of their decisions in trying to maintain a floor with veteran signings haven't worked out too well with guys like Gallo and Margot. I think the problem now is that once you get into June, that level of depth becomes less vital, you fall into the sunk cost fallacy when you keep hoping veterans will rebound and you can extract value from them, and organizationally we have more options in the high minors with young players that are able to perform as well if not better. they're guarding against injuries to high levels and risking on-field performance in a different way now.
  18. jmlease1
    Miranda can play 2B (played it a lot in the minors and it was his personal preference), Castro is an option there, plus Farmer vs LHP. I still think Margot would have been the right choice to part ways with, but this front office strongly prefers not to lose an asset unless they absolutely have to as they maintain depth against injuries (understandable considering how OF injuries ruined a season for this franchise a couple of years ago, but I would argue you can take it too far...and that maybe they have).
  19. jmlease1
    Winning a series is great. Winning a series on the road is even better. No complaints. Houston may not be up to snuff this year, but they still have some scary players in the lineup. That top half is scary even with Bregman off to a slow start (and he's heated up recently to be sure). Winning is excellent. Glad the bullpen was able to keep things down. I have no problem with going to them early with a day off for monday. Hopefully, we can go into NY and play without fear and get the job done. Royce should inject some confidence into the lineup; he fears nothing and no one.
  20. jmlease1
    I'm intrigued by Lares. He's having a very good season in Ft. Myers and seems to have figured some things out. Might be another guy to watch. Lee and Jenkins both look ready to move back to their proper levels, hope to see that soon.
  21. jmlease1
    I vote Margot. It's not April any longer, so the need for depth for the season is less important now than it was at the start of the year. Margot may be getting more run right now, and has been less terrible...the upside is limited. If they need another RH OF, Austin Martin is in AAA and also has the ability to play CF (and 2B if needed). The Twins tendency is to try to preserve options and hold on to assets, but Margot performance and limitations in his role, along with the low upside make him the right choice to get the boot this time.
  22. jmlease1
    Lopez looked great last night. I don't care if some of those guys from Houston have been playing this season to date, they still scare me, and he shut them down nicely. Great to see guys taking good ABs last night, fouling off pitches and making their starter really work. Eventually, the Twins were going to get some breaks and have hits come through with runners on base too. Exactly the right way to start the series, and I'm glad Okert and Sands were able to finish it off with no drama. Good to give Duran and Jax some additional days off.
  23. jmlease1
    Colome had been a closer for 5 season at this point; why exactly would we have brought him to be a low-leverage pitcher? he was brought in to close, and flunked out. Bundy pitched into the 7th inning exactly once in 2022; it was his best start of the season by a mile. He wasn't any better in limited innings; he just wasn't very good. Simmons had a good first week of the season that propped up his early stats, and was passable hitting with his defense (which was still very good, just no longer Hall of Fame worthy) until July, when he collapsed utterly; the idea that the Twins "trained" him in their way that wrecked him during his IL stint with COVID is a) not backed up by evidence, and b) laughable. he sucked at the plate the next season with the Cubs and was out of the league at 32. Which is more likely: these veterans were washed up, or the Twins didn't handle them right? Because Colome and Simmons both sucked in their next stops too.
  24. jmlease1
    That was a bad trade, not a bad free agent. 🤣
  25. jmlease1
    Gallo was a bad signing, but he at least added 0.5 bWAR with that hot start to the season. Those games count too. Donaldson shouldn't be on the list; he actually produced about like we thought he would. The bigger issue was he got hurt by the time playoffs rolled around in 2020 and the team wasn't competitive in 2021. It just didn't synch up right. We were correct to move off him in 2022, but the signing itself isn't close to top five bad. I'd give the last slot to Happ. He sucked for us, and didn't work out at all.
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