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The MLB offseason requires creativity for mid-market teams who want to remain competitive. The Twins have a recent history of swapping big leaguers for big leaguers with other teams, but has that worked? Let’s turn to history for the answer. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA Today No team wins every trade, but competitive teams need to win more than they lose. It's pretty straightforward to pick winners and losers when a team trades MLB contributors from a position of strength to bring in other MLB contributors for a position of need. These are often called challenge trades, and the Twins have made them a habit under this front office's tenure. I challenge you (no pun intended) to think of an offseason trade since 2016 that sent away an MLB player for the Twins. If that trade wasn't Gio Urshela for Alejandro Hidalgo, you just thought of a challenge trade. The only time that the Twins have truly sold—i.e., traded an MLB player for a prospect—was that second Urshela trade. Below, I've listed every trade that could be considered an offseason challenge trade (or sell) under Derek Falvey. Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. A player's performance is not included if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the original trade. This analysis doesn't have future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 15th, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn't available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. See the Yankees trade below for an example of why comparing statistics isn't ideal. Although the Twins lost the trade by WAR, it cleared the salary owed to Josh Donaldson and gave them the room to sign Carlos Correa to his first Minnesota contract. Without further ado, my subjective order is from best to worst. 3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Gio Urshela (551 PA, 119 OPS+, 3.1 bWAR), Gary Sanchez (471 PA, 88 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Josh Donaldson (666 PA, 90 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (892 PA, 81 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR), Ben Rortvedt* (79 PA, 28 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota. There's much to unpack in this trade, primarily orchestrated to clear up salary room from 2022 to 2024 and rid themselves of Donaldson. Donaldson was a solid contributor for New York in 2022 but wore out his welcome, and the Yankees waived him before the end of 2023. Kiner-Falefa also lost his starting shortstop role, handling a super-utility role when his contract ended after 2023. Rortvedt has played minimally in New York due to injury. Urshela and Sanchez spent a year in Minnesota, but neither returned for 2023. Although both Urshela and Sanchez had contracts that offset some of Donaldson's, the Twins are no longer paying either, and that excess money helped to bring in Correa before 2022 and 2023. 1/20/23: Minnesota acquires Pablo López* (194 IP, 117 ERA+, 3.3 bWAR), Jose Salas* (has not reached Minnesota), Byron Churio* (has not reached Minnesota) from Miami for Luis Arraez* (617 PA, 133 OPS+, 4.9 bWAR), -1.6 bWAR for Minnesota. The Twins tabbed López as the Opening Day starter after the trade that sent the reigning batting champion Arraez to Miami. After four great starts and a four-year, $73 million extension, López finished seventh in the AL Cy Young. Churio and Salas were promising prospects many did not anticipate being included in the deal, though it's questionable whether either will make it to the big leagues. Arraez won his second consecutive batting title and placed eighth in the 2023 NL MVP voting. He's under team control in Miami through 2025. 2/9/20: Minnesota acquires Kenta Maeda (277.1 IP, 106 ERA+, 3.0 bWAR), Jair Camargo* (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (NL) for Brusdar Graterol* (173.2 IP, 158 ERA+, 3.5 bWAR), Luke Raley (72 PA, 43 OPS+, -0.5 bWAR), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota. Maeda finished second in the 2020 Cy Young voting during the shortened season but struggled in 2021, had Tommy John surgery, and re-established himself in 2023, though not without continued injury concerns. At the time of the trade, the Twins knew he may have elbow issues. Graterol has been a solid force in LA's bullpen when healthy. Camargo has not reached the majors, while the Twins traded Raley to Tampa. This trade also sent a 2nd round pick to LA. 4/7/22: Minnesota acquires Chris Paddack* (27.1 IP, 95 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Emilio Pagán (132.1 IP, 112 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR), Brayan Medina (has not reached Minnesota) from San Diego for Taylor Rogers (41.1 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR), Brent Rooker (7 PA, -100 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +1.1 bWAR for Minnesota. This infamous trade sent away the Twins' top reliever, Rogers, who struggled in San Diego. Rooker, a depth outfielder, only registered seven plate appearances for the Padres but wound up a 2023 All-Star with Oakland. In return, the team received Paddack, who had known elbow issues, pitched well in five starts, then underwent Tommy John. He returned as a bullpen piece down the stretch in 2023 and will likely open 2024 in the starting rotation. Pagán largely struggled through 2022 as a high-leverage arm, but he posted a sub-3.00 ERA and led the bullpen in innings in 2023. Medina is currently in Rookie ball as a starter, and the Twins retained most of Rogers's salary. 3/12/22: Minnesota acquires Isiah Kiner-Falefa (did not reach Minnesota), Ronny Henriquez (11.2 IP, 173 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR) from Texas for Mitch Garver (559 PA, 121 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR), -2.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Coming out of the lockout, Minnesota made a move that killed two birds with one stone: got a return for the off-injured Garver and filled a hole at shortstop. Garver has dealt with injuries in Texas but has still hit well, though relegated to mainly DH. Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for one day before getting traded again, and Henriquez threw a few innings in 2022, but the Twins released him after the 2023 season. 11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Alejandro Hidalgo (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (AL) for Gio Urshela (130 PA, 84 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR), -0.2 bWAR for Minnesota. Urshela became a fan-favorite and consistent performer in his year in Minnesota. However, he would have likely been non-tendered in arbitration to prevent a perceived logjam on the Minnesota infield. He played all around the infield and had been moderately productive for the Angels before a broken pelvis ended his season. Hidalgo is still 20 years old and a starter at High-A. 2/5/21: Minnesota acquires Shaun Anderson (8.2 IP, 47 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR) from San Francisco for LaMonte Wade Jr.* (1151 PA, 112 OPS+, 3.9 bWAR), -4.4 bWAR for Minnesota. In retrospect, this was an unforced error. The Twins had two similar options for their fourth outfielder going into 2021—Wade and Jake Cave—and they elected to trade Wade, who, when healthy, has been a consistent presence in the Giants lineup. Cave struggled over his last two years in Minnesota, and Anderson, the AAAA lottery ticket they got for Wade, was out of the organization before the year ended. Total WAR gained: -8.8 bWAR Unfortunately, by WAR, the Twins have given up more than they've brought in in MLB-for-MLB trades. However, there's room for discussion. The team could say that they'd do the Donaldson, Arraez, and Graterol trades, even though they have not shown favorably by WAR, given the context of the trades. I said at the beginning that it's easy to see who wins and loses, but it's a little trickier to contextualize them. What do you think? Do you trust the team to trade away big leaguers again in 2024? View full article

The Minnesota Twins have lost 18 straight postseason games. The last playoff win for this franchise came on October 5, 2004 against the New York Yankees. Everyone in Twins Territory is aware of that. Most news outlets are aware of it. The players in the clubhouse though, could care less. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Major League Baseball regular season is an absolute marathon. Despite what the shortened 60-game Covid season tried to impose upon fans, living through every single outcome over a 162-game stretch is not necessary. Sure, the Twins played in one of baseball’s worst divisions this year, but they handled business and won it. Down the stretch, they have played at a 90-plus win pace, and they are going to host a wild card series. Suggesting that all things are equal in the postseason would be unfair. While Minnesota will have home field advantage, the reality is that they will be hosting a team with a better record. Given the pitching matchups, they should find themselves favored in at least one of the contests, but it’s not a clear coin flip at any point. That said, the statistical improbability of losing 18 straight is wild in and of itself. The Twins should win a playoff game in 2023 simply because logic says it will happen. Beyond that though, the Twins should win a playoff game, and maybe even a series, because this team isn’t impacted by the past. Of the holdovers from 2020, the last time Minnesota made the postseason, only Kenta Maeda, Caleb Thielbar, Ryan Jeffers, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, and Max Kepler remain. If Byron Buxton joins the active roster again, he too would be included in the bunch. For Carlos Correa, Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, and the rest of Rocco Baldelli’s leaders, what happened in the past couldn’t be less of a concern. It’s not as though this current Twins contingent hasn’t heard about the ineptitude of the franchise in the postseason. In fact, Kyle Farmer addressed it head on with Audra Martin on the night in which Minnesota clinched the AL Central. His take is perfectly on par though, and assuming something as silly as a jinx exists couldn’t be more misleading. With the Toronto Blue Jays coming to Target Field, the Twins will take their positions like they have done every other time this year. These games are worth holding onto every happening, and viewing through a microscope, but the outcome of at least one of them will be positive and end an ugly storyline for the fanbase. When Baldelli took the Twins to the postseason in 2020, the same lack of care for those players could be said. Few of them were around in 2017, and none of them cared about that result. The team that made it through the Covid race was flawed though, and had much less to bring to the table. Josh Donaldson was hurt and couldn’t go, the pitching left plenty to be desired, and the lineup was plenty flawed in its own right. Getting healthy at the right time, inserting players like Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart back into the fold all push the water level higher. Having a roster that has battled through adversity and continued to come out on top matters. Seeing a front office bet on this collection and be right about their overall ability should be a confidence boosting measure as well. Expectations in Twins Territory are rarely high. This group will go into the postseason with one of the lowest sets of World Series odds. No one is expecting them to win a round, and plenty will assume they can’t grab a game. That all falls on the side of favor for the home team, and gives them an opportunity to play loose while going out and getting it done. The fact that 0-18 exists is awful, absolutely. The reality that it exists doesn’t have any impact on the players in the clubhouse, and it certainly won’t stop them from getting a win if they execute at the level we have seen. It’s time for the talking point to cease, and that’s much easier once the streak has ended. Like Kyle Farmer said, “We’re gonna get that first win, I promise you that." View full article

Max Kepler's second-half resurgence has helped keep the Twins at the top of the AL Central. Winning can help build confidence in a clubhouse, but there haven't been all positive vibes in recent Twins history. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Clubhouse culture can be complex for fans to gauge from the outside. If the club wins, many of the team's players will report that everything is going great, even if clubhouse issues are under the surface. On the other hand, a clubhouse can devolve into disarray when a club is in the middle of a long losing streak. Fans will point to the team's coaching staff or the veteran players for building a toxic work environment, but things are not always that simple. Max Kepler looked lost at different points in the first half of the season. He provided little offensive value, and his excellent defense seemed to erode. In 64 first-half games, he hit .207/.279/.409 (.688) with five doubles and 12 home runs. Many fans called for him to be replaced on the roster by a younger left-handed corner outfielder like Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach. Minnesota's front office may have overvalued Kepler in the past, but their faith in him is being rewarded in the stretch run. Instead of dropping him, the team stuck with Kepler, and he has been one of the team's best hitters. In 39 second-half games, he has hit .319/.383/.609 (.992) with 13 doubles and nine home runs. He told Ken Rosenthal that it wasn't any specific adjustment that he made. "I can't just credit me as an individual," Kepler said. "It has to do with how the whole clubhouse chemistry kind of changed in the second half." He went on to say, "Teammates were rooting more for each other. You could really feel that. There is so much individuality that comes with this sport, especially when you hear, 'it's a business.' Players switch up (teams) a lot. Sometimes clubhouses feel disconnected. But in the second half, we all got off on the right page." Kepler has been on other Twins teams that have tried to build a solid clubhouse culture. During Kepler's rookie season, he joined a Twins roster that included Torii Hunter in his final big-league season. Hunter brought a different attitude to the Twins, including dance parties after wins with lights and smoke machines. The Twins finished above .500, an accomplishment for a team that had lost 92 games or more in four consecutive seasons. During the current season, the Twins have revitalized the clubhouse dance parties, which could be one reason for the team's success. Not everything has been sunshine and roses in the Twins clubhouse in recent seasons. Minnesota's front office made an unconventional move by bringing in Josh Donaldson with a four-year deal worth $92 million guaranteed leading into the 2020 season. At the time, it was the richest free-agent deal in franchise history and the second-largest MLB contract for a player 33 or older. The Twins were coming off a season when the club set a big-league record with 307 home runs, and Donaldson was seen as a veteran piece that could help the club win. However, he had a reputation for rubbing some people the wrong way, which might have impacted the team's clubhouse culture. The Twins won the AL Central during Donaldson's first season with the club, but injuries limited him to 28 games. He also wasn't available for the playoffs when Houston swept Minnesota. Donaldson bounced back in 2021 to play 135 games while posting a 127 OPS+. However, the Twins were a mess for a large portion of the season and finished with a 73-89 record, which was 20 games out of first place. Following the season, the Twins traded Donaldson to the Yankees while wiping the last two years of his contract off the books. Last week, Jeff Passan appeared on the Michael Kay Show and was asked about Donaldson and the trade that brought him to New York. He said, "Especially because the Yankees knew just how poorly he was getting along with people in Minnesota," continued Passan. "There was some toxicity going on there in Minnesota. I don't think you can look at the Donaldson trade in a positive way." As Parker pointed out on X, there are many ways to view the term toxic. It's usually associated with poor clubhouse culture, but there was also an edge to Donaldson that the front office felt was needed on the team. In hindsight, the Twins were lucky to find a trade partner for Donaldson because he has been a below-average hitter during his Yankees tenure. New York is currently in last place in the AL East, while the Twins sit at the top of the AL Central and the Yankees released Donaldson on Tuesday. Did culture play a role in both teams' performance? It probably depends on who you ask, but Kepler clearly thinks the Twins' culture is helping the team win. How vital is clubhouse culture? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have struggled mightily against left-handed pitchers in recent years. There are multiple reasons for those struggles, but Byron Buxton's streakiness is the main culprit. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports In 2019, the Twins mashed their way to the home run record by blitzing starting pitchers and compiling substantial offensive numbers. Obviously, there have been multiple changes to the Twins since that season, but one growing issue is the team's inability to hit left-handed pitching. Byron Buxton has been one of the team's most critical right-handed hitters over the last three seasons. Multiple factors have impacted his performance, including knee and back issues that have plagued him in 2023. Let's look back over the last three seasons to see how the team fared against lefties, what right-handed hitters should have been producing, and how Buxton's streakiness tied to the team's output. 2021 Season Only two AL teams had a lower OPS against left-handed pitchers than the Twins during the 2021 season. Minnesota's team OPS was nearly 20 points lower against lefties than righties. Besides Buxton, the Twins had multiple right-handed bats that should have done damage against lefties, including Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco, and Nelson Cruz. Sano struggled against lefties with an OPS over 100 points lower than his career mark. Donaldson and Cruz destroyed Southpaws as both posted an OPS above .900 in their final season with the Twins. Polanco is better at batting from the left side, but he posted an .803 OPS against lefties. Buxton was limited to 61 games during the 2021 season but still finished second on the team, according to rWAR. He played three total games between May 7th and August 26th. He ended the year with a .997 OPS against left-handed pitchers, but he was unavailable for a large chunk of the season while the team struggled to a last-place finish. Minnesota's overall numbers would look better if injuries hadn't sidelined Buxton for most of the season. 2022 Season Minnesota added Carlos Correa, a powerful right-handed bat, leading into the 2022 season, and the club saw some offensive improvement. Correa started slowly but continued to hit well against lefties and finished the season with a .945 OPS. Jose Miranda compiled substantial numbers during his rookie season and posted a .512 SLG against Southpaws. As a team, the Twins finished with the fifth-lowest OPS against left-handed pitchers while ranking 17th overall in wRC+. Buxton was one of baseball's best hitters in the first half on the way to being selected to his first All-Star Game. He posted an .824 OPS in the first half with 11 doubles, three triples, and 23 home runs. Buxton was also among the team's best hitters against lefties with a .917 OPS in 114 PA. Unfortunately, he was limited to 19 games in the second half while the Twins fell out of contention in the AL Central. 2023 Season Entering the season, the Twins hoped Correa, Buxton, and Miranda would build off their 2022 success to form a trio of lefty killers in the middle of the line-up. Miranda has been ineffective because of a shoulder injury that has bothered him since spring training. Correa and Buxton have also yet to live up to their high expectations. Evaluators expected Correa to be among the AL's leaders in WAR, but he finished a disappointing first half as a candidate for Least Valuable Player. Minnesota has reached a new low against lefties this season, with the non-contending Rockies being the only club with a lower wRC+ and OPS. The Twins shifted Buxton to DH this season in hopes of having him available more regularly. He is on pace to play over 100 games for the second time in his big-league career, but his performance has continued to struggle. He has hit .162/.244/.338 (.582) with seven extra-base hits and a 28-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 86 PA versus lefties. There have been long stretches where Buxton has looked lost at the plate, and the team's lefty struggles have increased while his bat has gone cold. Do you feel like Buxton's streakiness is to blame? Will the Twins be able to solve their offensive woes against lefties? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Fans will quickly point out trades that end poorly, but the Twins' current front office has seen some good deals during their tenure. Here are the top five trades made by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports MLB's 2023 Trade Deadline is scheduled for August 1, and the Twins will likely need to add pieces to keep themselves in contention. Before the deadline, looking at previous years and how this front office has approached the trading process is critical. This series will look at some of the best and worst trades made by the current front office. 5. Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa , and Ben Rortvedt for Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela Trade Date: March 13, 2022 The Twins didn't gain significant value from this trade, but it might have been more about what the team could dump. Minnesota was ready to move on from Donaldson after two seasons, and the front office was lucky to find an organization willing to take on his salary. Urshela was a solid contributor in his lone Twins season, with Sanchez also providing minimal value. Dumping Donaldson gave the Twins financial flexibility to make other moves leading into the last two seasons. 4. Jermaine Palacios for Jake Odorizzi Trade Date: February 17, 2018 Only a few teams win trades with the Tampa Bay Rays, but the Twins have been successful in recent years. Tampa is known for having limited payroll resources, and Odorizzi was getting expensive through the arbitration process. After the trade, he posted a 4.01 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a 110 ERA+ from 2018-19. He was an All-Star during the 2019 season, and the Twins extended him the qualifying offer leading into the 2020 season. Odorizzi struggled during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign by allowing ten earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. Palacios never made it to the big leagues with the Rays, so it was a clear win for the Twins. 3. Chase Petty for Sonny Gray and Francis Peguero Trade Date: March 13, 2022 It's tough to trade a recent first-round pick, but the Twins might have found a way to maximize a player's value. The Twins took Petty with the 26th overall selection in the 2021 MLB Draft, but high school pitchers are one of the most challenging player types to draft and develop. Minnesota got two strong years from a veteran starting pitcher by trading Petty for Gray. Following the 2023 season, the Twins can extend a qualifying offer to Gray. The Twins receive draft pick compensation if he declines the offer and signs with another team. It's an opportunity for the Twins to replace Petty in their system with another high draft pick. Peguero is still in the Twins organization and pitching out of the bullpen at Double-A. Petty might develop into a strong starting pitcher, but the trade still looks good from the Twins' perspective. 2. Eduardo Escobar for Jhoan Duran, Gabriel Maciel, and Ernie De La Trinidad Trade Date: July 27, 2018 Escobar was a fan favorite during his time in Minnesota, so it was tough to see him traded away. However, he was on an expiring contract, and the Twins received three prospects in return. Duran has become one of the game's top relievers, and the Twins have him under team control through the 2027 season. Maciel and De La Trinidad are no longer in the Twins organization, but Duran has provided more WAR for the Twins than Escobar did in the final months of the 2018 season. Duran is arguably one of the team's top-5 most valuable players, and that's why this trade gets ranked so high. 1. Nelson Cruz and Calvin Faucher for Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman Trade Date: July 22, 2021 There have been some strong trades in the Twins' history, but this has the potential to be one of the best. Cruz had been the heart and soul of the Twins line-up for multiple seasons, but he was on an expiring contract, and the club wasn't in contention. The Rays had been interested in Cruz for multiple seasons but couldn't make a deal. Ryan was a highly-ranked pitching prospect in the Rays organization, but many evaluators believed his ceiling was limited because he relied on his fastball. He has continued developing his secondary pitches and is a borderline All-Star in 2023. That's not too bad of a swap for two months of an aging Cruz. Check out the Twins Daily forums for more trade discussions from the current front office. How would you rank the above-listed trades? Would you have different trades on the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins front office made an intriguing decision this winter to keep Emilio Pagan on the roster. Is he the latest in a line of players that this front office can't quit? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Every team's front office makes hundreds of decisions each season. Some turn out better than others, while some make fans shake their heads. On last Friday's episode of Gleeman and the Geek, Aaron and John discussed the possibility that the Twins' front office has difficulty admitting when they are wrong about a player. Teams can't let a player go after one poor performance, but there can be a point where the process and results aren't aligned with the organization's best interests. Emilio Pagan might be the epitome of the team being wrong about a player, especially since the Twins didn't need to offer him arbitration this winter. In his first season with the Twins, he posted a 4.43 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP, but the numbers don't tell the whole story of what he has cost the team. His -1.26 WPA is the lowest among Twins relievers over the last two seasons, which ranks him down with Jharel Cotton and Trevor Megill. Among AL relievers, he has the fifth-worst WPA since the start of the 2022 season. The Twins trusted the process with Pagan and believed his stuff would provide value during the 2023 season. Pagan's metrics point to him being above average, but he tends to leave pitches over the plate at the most inopportune times. Even great relievers have bad stretches, but Pagan has never been a great reliever, so the front office will have to decide soon on whether or not he stays on the roster. Joe Smith, a 38-year-old at the time, was the Twins long free agent relief signing entering the 2022 season. He started the season well with a 1.59 ERA and 0.694 WPA in his first 21 appearances. Unfortunately, things went south from there, and he allowed 11 earned runs over his final 13 appearances while being worth -0.217 WPA. The Twins released him in early August, and he has yet to appear in another professional game. The Twins realized they had made a mistake and moved on when he started to struggle. Another example of the team admitting they were wrong was trading away Josh Donaldson with multiple years remaining on his contract. Minnesota signed Donaldson with the hope he could push an emerging team over the top and help the organization to more playoff success. Injuries and poor performance marred his time with the Twins. Thankfully, the front office found a trade partner, and Donaldson has been worth 2.2 WAR over the last two seasons in New York. It was a move where the Twins had to admit they were wrong, but it gave the team financial flexibility to make moves over the last two seasons. In 2021, the Twins signed a group of veteran free agents that struggled to perform. Alex Colome had a disastrous first month of the season and almost single-handedly put the Twins out of contention. He improved in the second half, so the team kept him on the roster for the whole season. The team signed Andrelton Simmons as a shortstop stopgap, but he posted a 57 OPS+ in over 130 games. Both players cost the Twins wins during the season, and the team could have gone in a different direction. The front office also targeted J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker entering the 2021 season with some disastrous results. Shoemaker made 16 appearances and posted an 8.06 ERA with a 1.66 WHIP. Minnesota sent him to Triple-A to attempt improvements, but the team eventually admitted they were wrong and released him in early August. Happ's performance was only slightly better with a 6.77 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 19 starts. The Twins traded Happ to the Cardinals at the trade deadline for Evan Sisk and John Gant. His numbers improved after the trade, but it was his last taste of the big leagues as he retired in May 2022. There have been countless other examples of players the Twins have kept despite declining performance while also moving on from some players mentioned above. Front offices have to be patient when making decisions because every player will struggle at some point during a 162-game season. Sometimes the process and results don't match, and that's when the team needs to say sayonara to players hurting the team's chances to win. Do you think the Twins' front office has difficulty admitting when they are wrong? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Yankees make their yearly appearance in Minneapolis this week, with the Twins looking to stay at the top of the AL Central. Let’s look back at the Josh Donaldson trade with the Bronx Bombers on their way to Target Field. Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports Leading into the 2020 season, the Twins weren’t known for making a big splash on the free-agent market. However, the narrative changed with one big signing. Minnesota inked Josh Donaldson to a four-year, $92 million deal, including an $8 million buyout of a $16 million club option for a fifth year. At the time, the contract was the largest free agent deal in club history and the second-largest in MLB history for a player 33 or older. Minnesota was coming off a 2019 Central Division, where the club set the MLB record for home runs in a season. Donaldson was coming off a season where he was named the NL Comeback Player of the Year with a 126 OPS+ in 155 games. The Twins expected him to help the team continue to contend while also serving as a mentor to some of the team’s younger players. However, his time in Minnesota was filled with more downs than ups. The Twins won the division in 2020, but Donaldson was limited to 28 games in the pandemic-shortened season. He had a 132 OPS+ in limited action, but injuries greatly impacted him, and he wasn’t available for Minnesota’s playoff series with the Astros. In 2021, the Twins were a mess and finished at the bottom of the AL Central. Donaldson finished fourth on the team in the WAR with a 127 OPS+, but he played 34 games at DH to help keep himself healthy. Minnesota’s front office went into the offseason looking to make moves to keep the team’s winning window open. On March 12th, the Twins traded Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez. One day later, Minnesota packaged Kiner-Falefa with Josh Donaldson and Ben Rortvedt for Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela. The trade got the Twins out from under the Donaldson contract, and it helped free up the payroll space that Minnesota eventually used for Carlos Correa’s first Twins contract. Twins Acquisitions Entering the 2022 season, the Twins expected Sanchez to split catching duties with Ryan Jeffers, but one injury changed the plan. Jeffers broke his finger, and Sanchez ended up playing 128 games for the Twins. He hit .205/.282/.377 (.659) with 24 doubles, 16 home runs, and an 89 OPS+. His barrel % and hard hit percentage ranked in the 92nd percentile, so there were some positive offensive signs. Defensively, he improved his framing by moving from the 17th percentile in 2021 to the 50th percentile last season. Sanchez remained unsigned for most of the offseason before signing a minor league deal with the Giants. Urshela finished fourth in WAR on the 2022 Twins after hitting .285/.338/.429 (.767) with 27 doubles, three triples, and 13 home runs. His defensive numbers were poor through the season’s first half, but he made one of the most significant in-season improvements for the Twins. Minnesota wanted to open third base for Jose Miranda, so the Twins traded Urshela to the Angels for right-handed pitching prospect Alejandro Hidalgo. Urshela has a 93 OPS+ in his first 18 games for the Angels, while Hidalgo has allowed one earned run with an 11.1 K/9 in 5 2/3 innings this season. Yankees Acquisitions Donaldson’s first Yankees season was filled with ups and downs. In 132 games, he hit .222/.308/.374 (.682) with 28 doubles and 15 home runs. He posted an OPS+ below 120 for only the second time since 2012. He ranked second among AL third basemen in SABR’s Defensive Index but wasn’t a finalist for the Gold Glove. Donaldson started the 2023 season by going 2-for-16 (.125) with one home run before a hamstring strain pushed him to the IL. Reports this weekend said he would likely miss several more weeks because of the injury. The Yankees planned to use Kiner-Falefa to bridge the gap to some of their young shortstop prospects. Last season, he hit .261/.314/.327 (.642) while playing regularly at shortstop. In 2023, New York handed shortstop to Anthony Volpe, with Kiner-Falefa moving to a utility role. He’s played third base and center field while starting the season going 5-for-31 (.161) at the plate. Kiner-Falefa is entering his final year of team control, so the defensive flexibility might help him land a job for 2024. Rortvedt was the third piece the Twins traded to the Yankees and has been limited by multiple injuries over the last two seasons. He had an oblique injury at the time of the deal, and then he underwent left knee surgery last May. Eventually, he appeared in 42 Triple-A games and hit .218/.311/.394 (.705) with nine doubles and six home runs. During spring training in 2023, he had surgery on an aneurysm of the posterior artery near his left shoulder, causing circulation issues. He’s started a rehab assignment at Low-A, and the Yankees are waiting for him to debut with the big-league club. Winners? Losers? Somewhere In-Between? There are a lot of layers to the Donaldson trade. Minnesota was ecstatic to get out from the remainder of his contract for multiple reasons. Donaldson’s age and injury history will continue to impact him, and teams that sign free agents typically get the best performance in the contract’s early years. The Twins had to acquire some players that weren’t needed in New York, but their performances were hardly the reason for the team’s struggles last year. Trading Donaldson also allowed Minnesota to get creative in the club’s first contract offer to Correa. If Donaldson was on the team, that signing likely doesn’t happen, and then the Twins aren’t in the running to re-sign him this winter. Because of these factors, the Twins scored a rare win against the Yankees. Do you think the Twins won the trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota's front office continues to collect players with injury concerns. Will these distressed assets come back to haunt the Twins? Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have followed different trends since taking the Twins' front office reins. Those trends include the types of players they target in the draft process, using a patient approach in the offseason, and acquiring players that some may consider distressed assets. Some distressed assets have provided value for the Twins, but others have been unmitigated disasters. Can the Twins find a way to be successful while following this player acquisition trend? Reasons for this Trend The current front office has placed a premium value on acquiring players on good contracts or with multiple years of team control. There is risk involved with long-term deals for free-agent players, and the Twins typically aren't swimming in the deep end of the free-agent market. However, there have been multiple instances when a player's value had dropped enough that the Twins were comfortable offering multi-year deals. Minnesota was willing to make the highest offer because the front office felt the player would provide enough value in the contract's early years to make up for the back end. On the pitching side, Minnesota has recently traded for multiple arms, and there have been injury concerns with some of those acquisitions. Trading for any pitching asset comes with some level of trepidation. Last season, Twins fans clamored for the team to acquire Frankie Montas, but he was traded to the Yankees and will start the 2023 season on the injured list because of a shoulder injury. Only some pitchers can perform at a high level after a trade. Also, the Twins value the prospects this regime has accumulated, so they have shown a hesitancy to deal top prospects for pitching assets. That made last year's trade deadline so intriguing because it looked like the front office was putting the team in the best position to win. Unfortunately, recent seasons haven't played out in the team's favor. Distressed Assets: Pitchers Sam Dyson was one of this front office's first significant trade deadline deals in 2019. His Twins' tenure was disastrous as he allowed nine earned runs in 11 1/3 innings while making multiple trips to the Injured List. Eventually, he revealed that he had been pitching through shoulder discomfort for multiple weeks. The Twins tried to investigate if the Giants knew anything about his injury before the trade. There were no signs of his injury or poor performance before the trade, so this deal looks like bad luck for the Twins. He hasn't pitched in professional baseball since 2019 because of sexual assault allegations and a suspension. Leading into the 2020 season, the Twins traded for Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers. Los Angeles expressed concerns about Maeda's elbow when he initially signed in 2016, and that's why he signed an incentive-laden contract. He pitched nearly 590 innings with the Dodgers before being traded and showed no signs of his elbow being an issue. His first season in Minnesota couldn't have gone much better, as he posted a 2.70 ERA while leading baseball with a 0.75 WHIP. Maeda's performance declined in 2021, forcing him to undergo Tommy John surgery. He pitched over 760 big-league innings before his elbow gave out, so this wasn't a red flag before the trade. Minnesota recently finished an extension with Chris Paddack to keep him with the organization through the 2025 season and delay free agency by one year. The Twins acquired Paddack leading into the 2022 season after he dealt with a sprained UCL at the end of the 2021 season. He pitched well in limited action last season, and the Twins are hoping he can return in 2023 following his second Tommy John surgery. His extension gives the Twins some cost certainty and has the potential for Paddack to provide the team upside over the next three seasons. Tyler Mahle was arguably the Twins' most prominent trade deadline acquisition in 2022. The front office attempted to add a playoff-caliber starter to the rotation, but it came at a cost. Shortly before the trade, Mahle missed time with a shoulder injury, and those issues continued with the Twins. He couldn't help the team down the stretch, and now there are questions about his health entering the 2023 campaign. Mahle is a free agent at season's end, and the Twins hope his off-season regime has built up his shoulder enough to provide value at the rotation's front end. Distressed Assets: Position Players Entering the 2020 season, the Twins planned to target free-agent starting pitching, but the market didn't work out in the club's favor. Instead, Josh Donaldson was still available because of lingering injury concerns and the fact that he was in his mid-30s. Minnesota hoped that Donaldson could be an asset to help push the team to postseason success. However, he didn't appear in either playoff game during his Twins tenure. Luckily, the Twins were able to trade Donaldson, which helped pave the way for signing Carlos Correa. Carlos Correa 's free agent journey has been well documented in recent weeks, but there's no question he remains with the Twins because of long-term health concerns. Minnesota offered a front-loaded contract that is very team friendly, but there are risks involved with any free-agent signing. Even Byron Buxton 's extension can be viewed as a distressed asset, because of his long-running injury concerns. The Twins' success is now tied to Correa and Buxton staying healthy. Minnesota's line-up should have two of baseball's best hitters if both players perform up to expectations. Are you concerned with Minnesota's trend of acquiring distressed assets? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the Twins have prized depth on their roster and optionality in their processes. Their approach to MLB free agency has reflected that fact. Alas, that means they’re only doing half the job that a great front office must do in free agency, and it’s the less vital half. Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports MLB free agency is really one name for two overlapping but distinct tasks. One of those is finding short-term answers to immediate problems. In this aspect, a front office needs to reinforce thin areas on their roster; balance the pursuit of upside with the necessity of setting a firm floor for a given roster spot; and husband their resources as closely as possible. They need to fill holes without leaving themselves ossified or cornered when the opportunity or the need to change tack arises. The other task that makes up free agency, though, is adding high-impact talent to the franchise on a long-term basis. This is talked about too rarely, but it’s crucial. That’s because, ultimately, having star-caliber players is a non-negotiable prerequisite for consistent contention. To longtime baseball fans, this can seem like the vapid talk of a cotton-headed basketball or football fan. No individual can have the same impact on a ball club as LeBron James can have on a basketball team, or even the impact that any of several good quarterbacks can have on their rosters. One of baseball’s beautiful characteristics is that depth will out, and that good teams are unavoidably reliant upon a broader base of contributors. Every roster spot matters, and stars can’t carry subpar fellows very far. The bottom 60 percent of a 26- and a 40-man roster needs to be full of guys who hew closer to average than to the replacement level, or else a team will stall out over the long season. True though that might be when it comes to analyzing a team based on its two or three best players, it fades into irrelevance if you judge a team by its seven or eight best. Good teams need above-average players—not a couple of them, but a cadre. It’s simple math, really. If you have that army of credible, almost-good players rounding out the bottom of the roster, you’ve set a floor somewhere between 70 and 75 wins. If the top handful of batters and pitchers are each just a win above average, though, you can’t push much past 85 wins. Teams with real chances of reaching and causing trouble in the postseason, and especially those who stand any chance of doing so multiple times in a span of a few years, need to have clear paths to 90 wins or more. A deeper dive into players who post a 4+ WAR tells why the Twins have been coming up short against the more elite teams in the American League, including in the postseason. But we reward our Caretakers with the meatier stories like this, since they’re the ones that support paying writers for a more thorough examination. If you would like to join them, you can read this story and also get other perks, like a free ticket to the Winter Meltdown, meet and greets, special recognition in the comments sections, and more exclusive in-depth explorations of Twins topics. Just sign up here. We would love to have you join the hundreds of people that value having Twins stories, rumors and conversation 365 days per year. Thank you for considering it. View full article

The Twins need to continue to add to the roster for 2023. Do any of these former Twins fit with the team’s future plans? Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA TODAY Sports Many of the league’s top free agent options are officially signed, meaning teams must turn to trades to improve their teams. Minnesota has former players on rosters throughout baseball, but the following players have seen their names thrown around in the rumor mill. Not all of these players fit with Minnesota’s current roster construction, but some of the names have something to offer the 2023 Twins. Aaron Hicks, OF Hicks is owed roughly $30 million over the next three seasons, but his performance has significantly declined over the last four seasons. He averaged 48 games from 2019-2021 with a 103 OPS+. In 2022, he played 130 games and hit .216/.330/.313 (.642) with 19 extra-base hits. Defensively, Hicks has started to play less time in center field, which takes away some of his overall value. Twins Fit: Low. The Twins have better options at all three outfield positions. Josh Donaldson, 3B Last winter, Minnesota got out of the final two years (and $50M) of Donaldson’s four-year deal by trading him to the Yankees. Reports point to New York having a tough time finding a trade partner for Donaldson and Hicks. Last season, Donaldson had a below 100 OPS+ for the first time since 2012. He already turned 37 years old at the beginning of December, and he is likely on the backside of his career. Twins Fit: Low. The Twins were happy to get out of Donaldson’s contract. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS Kiner-Falefa’s Twins tenure was short-lived, but the organization was interested in him before the Donaldson trade. In 2022, he hit .261/.314/.327 (.642) while ranking 8th among AL shortstops in SABR’s Defensive Index. His defensive skills are what the Twins were interested in last year, but there are stronger defenders on the trade market. His Whiff% (99th percentile) and K% (92nd percentile) bring down an offensive profile that already includes limited power. Twins Fit: Medium. Minnesota could use more depth at shortstop, but he might not be an upgrade over Kyle Farmer. Liam Hendriks, RP Hendriks has been one of baseball’s best closers over the last four seasons. He’s under contract for $14.33 million next season, and his $15 million team option for 2024 becomes guaranteed if he is traded. The White Sox have discussed trading Hendriks with multiple teams, including the Mets. Plenty of teams will be interested in acquiring Hendriks, but it seems unlikely for Chicago to trade him in the division. Twins Fit: Medium. Paying Hendriks nearly $30 million over the next two seasons is a lot of money, but he’d significantly upgrade the team’s bullpen. Eduardo Escobar, UTL Until recently, the Mets had Escobar penciled in as their starting third baseman. However, Carlos Correa’s signing means Escobar lost his starting job. He is under contract for $9.5 million for 2023 with a $9 million option ($500,000 buyout) for 2024. In 136 games last season, he hit .240/.295/.430 (.726) with 26 doubles, four triples, and 20 home runs. He’s averaged a 108 OPS+ over the last two seasons, but he is closing in on his mid-30s. Twins Fit: Medium. Escobar was a joy when he was with the Twins, but the team doesn’t have a clear need for a utility player. Should the Twins try and trade for any of these former Twins? Are any of them a better fit than the others? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Carlos Correa's "super agent" Scott Boras described the Minnesota Twins as "fishing in the ocean" just a week before Correa signed a 13-year $350M deal with the San Francisco Giants. At the time, the Twins were in the middle of a heated bidding war for the superstar short stop. that saw them offer a franchise record 10-year $280M contract. As we know, the Twins were unwilling to get to the 13 year threshold that the Giants offered, and he will now assumingly play out the remainder of his career in the The Golden City. Some Twins fans immediately took to bashing the front office for their inability to give Correa whatever he wanted because he said he wanted to remain in Minnesota. Other fans were just excited that the Twins had seemingly taken a step up by offering such a lucrative contract, and were now big players in the free agent game. Fishing in the ocean. Fast forward just a few short days, and the Twins have finally began spending the surplus of money they had sitting unoccupied on the payroll. They started by signing Christian Vasquez, an elite defensive catcher who holds his own at the plate, to a 3-year $30M deal. They followed the Vasquez signing up by landing Joey Gallo, a former superstar with as much raw power as anyone in the league, to a 1-year $11M contract. This is clearly just the start of a Twins plan that is starting to formulate and fall into place, however, many Twins fans have voiced their displeasure with the team's lack of ability to reel in the big fish. Do these fans have a real gripe? Should the Twins be throwing around $200M contracts more frequently? The fun answer would be yes. It would be awesome to navigate an offseason and trade deadline with the same aggressiveness as the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers, but is that the blueprint that the Twins should follow when their payroll sits right around $160M? I think the last five years have taught us that when it comes to winning a championship, there are many was to skin a cat, and maybe the Twins should shift their approach. 2020-2022 Offseasons The years 2020-2022 brought us some of the most exciting offseason moments we could have ever hoped for as Twins fans. Prior to the 2020 season, the Twins signed Josh Donaldson to a 4-year $92M contract, which was the richest contract they had ever given to a free agent to date. The Donaldson signing was one of the most exciting offseason moments of my Twins fandom. The Donaldson era on the field was one chock-full with injuries and disappointment. He was eventually dumped off on the Yankees in a trade for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez in order to get Donaldson's contract off the books. His former Twins teammates were rather vocal about how they felt about Donaldson in his time in Minnesota, and it wasn't good. The Twins avoided the disaster of living out his 4-year deal by giving him away to the Yankees, who have also had their fair share of issues with Donaldson. Donaldson's two year stint with the Twins could've left a bad taste in the Twins mouth when it came to signing big free agents, but it didn't, as made evident by excitement displayed by fans when the Twins made the biggest move in franchise history following the Donaldson trade. I remember waking up groggy eyed and looking at my phone when I saw the Minnesota Twins had signed Carlos Correa. Despite it being 6 a.m., I danced around my room screaming like an idiot until I lost my voice, got light headed, and decided to sit down. The Correa signing came out of no where, as there was never any reported interest between either party until the news broke that he was coming to Minnesota on a 3-year $105M deal that included opt out options after each of the first two seasons. Correa's time in Minnesota could not have been more different than Donaldson's. He was a fantastic leader and player, and left a very positive impact on the Twins. This is the reason they decided the 28-year-old was worth a 10-year $280M contract. Correa remained healthy and performed for much of the season, but he alone wasn't enough to make the Twins successful. As the players around Correa fell one by one to injury throughout the season, the Twins were forced to play a handful of players who were not Major League quality players. The season winded down to a disastrous end came and Correa opted out, leaving fans wondering what the Twins would do. In most Twins fans minds, after the last few offseasons, the only way to become a championship caliber team was to throw around as much cash as humanly possible and sign as many big named free agents as there were on the market. This is the exciting way to operate, but is it the best way for a mid-market team to go about their business? 2019 Offseason In 2018 the Twins went 78-84 and fired their manager Paul Moliter. They went into the 2018-2019 offseason with plenty of young talent on the roster, but also plenty of holes to fill. The Twins followed a different model in this particular winter than they have in the offseasons since. In this offseason, the Twins started by signing low to mid level free agents like CJ Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Ehire Adrianza, and Martin Perez. The Twins made their first big move of the winter when they signed the 38-year-old home run slugging DH Nelson Cruz to a 1-year $12M contract. They followed it up by signing the former World Series Champion Marwin Gonzalez to a 2-year $21M deal. This offseason saw them sign mid level free agents to short term, low risk, high reward contracts. The result of this plan just so happened to be one of the most memorable seasons in Twins history. The 2019 "Bomba Squad" won 101 games and won the AL Central. The team was fun, exciting, and very deep. It was built with a strong emphasis on depth, developing their own young players, and bringing in veteran players who provided good leadership on short term deals. What's This Mean? Maybe nothing. It's a small sample size, but I can't help but feel that this offseason is shaping up very much like the one that led the Twins to an all-too-fun 101 win season. The 2023 Twins team already has a lot of talent, and most of that talent is rather youthful. They have pivoted from the large, flashy contracts, and have focused on short term deals that could end up paying off big time if they hit. Take Joey Gallo for example. If he reverts the the 2021 version of himself that contributed 4.7 Wins Above Replacement, they could have themselves a massive asset for a very manageable price. If he sucks, the Twins will wash their hands of him, and it's essentially no harm, no foul. The Twins front office has received a ton of criticism for the lack of moves so far this winter, but I refuse to overreact to an unfinished product. The moves are coming, and I believe the Twins will compete in 2023, pushing to win a very weak AL Central. The flashy moves the Twins have made the last few seasons have been fun. I will always get excited when I see a big name connected with the Twins. I will continue to lose my mind any time the Twins manage to bring one of those big fish to Minnesota. I'm not saying the Twins can't win by making these moves. My main point here is that the Twins have yet to find any success from signing star free agents to lucrative contracts. Instead of screaming at the top of our lungs to fire the whole front office, maybe we can take a step back and let the entirety of the offseason fall into place before we start criticizing. Let Falvey cook. Deep breaths. We've been here before. What are your thoughts on the offseason this far? What are your hopes for the future? Let me know, and as always, Go Twins!

By almost any standard other than the Minnesota Twins and their current front office, the newly minted three-year contract for catcher Christian Vázquez would not be all that significant or noteworthy. As it happens, their reported commitment of $30 million ranks as the third-largest for a free agent in six years since this front office took over. Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey and Thad Levine moved quickly after taking the reins in 2016, signing catcher Jason Castro to a three-year, $24.5 million contract as their first move. It would be the new regime's largest commitment to a free agent until 2020, when they made waves by signing third baseman Josh Donaldson for four years and $92 million. An audacious move coming off a breakthrough season. Donaldson's deal nearly doubled the franchise record-holder for biggest free agent contract: Ervin Santana for four years and $52 million, almost eight years ago to the day (12/14/14). Donaldson's two-year tenure with the Twins was unfulfilling, and the team was happy to move on when they unloaded his remaining contract to New York this past February. They used the newfound payroll space to make an even bigger splash: signing Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105 million stunner. He opted out of that deal a few weeks ago, as expected. Which brings us to this week, where the Twins have agreed to terms with Christian Vazquez on a three-year deal worth $30 million over three years. With that, we've covered all of the biggest free agent commitments ever from this front office: Vazquez (#3) nests behind Correa (#1) and Donaldson (#2) as the heftiest contract in six offseasons, and – along with Castro – the only deals spanning three or more years. There are a few ways to react to this. The first, of course is: wow, that really puts the Twins' aversion to free agent spending in context. Their biggest splurges under this regime have been two solid yet unspectacular catchers, and two superstar infielders, whose contracts more or less melded into one. (Twins basically turned the last $52 million owed to Donaldson into $35 million for Correa.) Castro is, thus far, the only one of these players who actually played out at least three years of his contract as a Twin. Vázquez will presumably join him, bridging us to the other reaction: the front office must REALLY like Christian Vázquez. Clearly they are deeply uncomfortable with long-term contracts, especially for aging players. If they wanted to, the Twins could have certainly bided their time to wait out the remaining trade market, or turned their attention to another free agent around the middle tier. They passed up the opportunity to pursue a (likely cheaper) true platoon partner for Ryan Jeffers, such as Omar Narváez or Tucker Barnhardt, in order to aggressively acquire Vázquez – who was reportedly their #1 free agent catching target from the start. What do they like so much about the 32-year-old to make such a (relatively) big leap? Vázquez has a number of appealing qualities, one of which is pitch-framing – particularly high in the zone) – as Lucas Seehafer laid out in detail. There's also his relatively neutral platoon split, his strong throwing arm, and his reputed clubhouse presence. Beyond that, the Twins' willingness to pay a real premium for the backstop comes down to two core things: safety and experience. SAFETY This is the biggest factor without question, in my mind. Coming into this offseason, the catcher position was a glaring hole on an otherwise structurally sound roster. Dan Hayes writes in The Athletic that the team was "desperate to find a catcher in free agency." Vázquez has had an up-and-down career, with occasional solid offensive bursts counterbalanced by long unproductive stretches ... but he's been serviceable at worst. Even when his bat is amiss, he remains a steady defensive player and durable mainstay. He might arguably lack the upside of a Zunino or Narváez, but he's got a higher and sturdier floor. And that's what this move does: complete the front office's floor-raising setup for whatever is next. EXPERIENCE The Astros acquired Vázquez from Boston at the deadline this year, valuing him as a seasoned vet who could contribute during the stretch and into the playoffs. He played 41 games for Houston in August, September, and October, aiding their successful pursuit of a World Series championship. It was the second ring for Vázquez, who won another in Boston in 2018 and took part in a deep run with the Red Sox in 2021. For a Twins organization that was devoid of ANY meaningful big-league catching experience beyond Jeffers' 600 plate appearances ... it's easy to see why this track record would be very appealing. Now, the big remaining question is whether this front office is going to add another top contract to its modest historical ledger. Amazingly, Vázquez's $30 million contract has now entered their top three -- and the top six in franchise history, adding in Santana and Ricky Nolasco. If Vázquez remains on either of those lists by the time the offseason is over, it'll be hard to see how this winter would be viewed as a success. View full article

Last offseason the Twins made a shocking trade with the Yankees, parting with one of their highest paid players and their assumed future shortstop for a couple of pieces back. Now that we have a full season of data, it’s time to revisit. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins previous offseason was a flurry of surprising moves. A team that was typically pretty quiet and tame in terms of their acquisitions made several big trades in an attempt to return to relevance in the standings. Unfortunately, this didn’t come to fruition, but is it possible that parting with their starting third baseman and new shortstop actually better positioned them? The Twins Trade Away Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa Despite the remaining 2 years and $42m remaining on his contract, the Twins traded Donaldson to the Bronx last winter with whispers swirling that he had worn out his welcome. The former MVP played in 135 games in 2021, his most since his fantastic 2019, but still had modest results. Seeking to cleanse the clubhouse and avoid a potential drop off in production, this side of the Twins gamble worked. Donaldson continued causing issues in New York and he had his worst offensive year since 2012. He slashed .222/.308/.374, 3% below league average despite the harsh offensive environment. His defense did rebound and he stayed healthy for 132 games, but it’s safe to say the Twins are happy with this decision. Isiah Kiner-Falefa wasn’t on the Twins long enough to even have jerseys made, having been acquired shortly before in the Mitch Garver deal. The assumed starting shortstop, IKF had a reputation as a gamer even though he lacked any standout skills. He had the kind of season you’d expect from the light-hitting infielder, slashing .261/.314/.327. As usual, his defense was good or bad depending on the metric. This pair being shipped out allowed the Twins to sign Correa, who undeniably provided significantly more value than their initial plan at shortstop. IKF wasn’t even the starting shortstop more often than not come playoff time for the Yankees, a testament to how this trade just did not work out for New York at all. The Twins Receive Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela Gary Sanchez had a strange year. The Yankees just didn’t want him behind the plate anymore regardless of his bat, so naturally he came to Minnesota and his skills behind the plate became his carrying tool. His .205/.282/.377 line was surprisingly bad, as his standout bat completely cratered but his framing and general defense was his boon. In other circumstances it’s possible Sanchez would have either lost significant playing time or not finish the season on the team. Injuries, however, had him starting near everyday. His struggles will likely cost him this winter, as it’s doubtful a team will suddenly see him as a plus-defender and it seems the Twins were left holding the bag on his offensive dropoff. Gio Urshela was the prize of this deal. Similar to Kiner-Falefa, defensive metrics conflict on his value, but he routinely makes some eye-popping plays at the hot corner. His .285/.338/.429 slash line was a trip back to his 2019 and 2020 peak offensive seasons, both of which looked to be a product of the juiced ball and a shortened schedule. Sure enough however, Urshela was one of the Twins few bright spots down the stretch, and surely played himself into being tendered a contract for 2023. “Winning a trade” is all about opinion. Some argue the aggregate value tells the story, others like to be receiving the best player in the deal. In the Twins case, they won on both measures. Donaldson (1.6) and Kiner-Falefa (1.3) combined for 2.9 fWAR in comparison to Sanchez (1.3) and Urshela (2.4) equaling 3.7. If that wasn’t convincing enough, consider that Donaldson has another year remaining for $21m plus another $8M guaranteed in the form of a 2024 buyout. No longer a middle of the order bat and at increased risk for another injury, possible disaster looms for whatever team he’s on in 2023. IKF also has one remaining arbitration year, which is likely to either get non-tendered or traded after failing to nail down the shortstop job with several prospects on the horizon for the Yankees. On the Twins end, they certainly could’ve done better than Gary Sanchez with the $9m he was paid, but that was the cost of doing business and he’s off their books moving forward. Urshela’s arbitration value will likely settle around $9-10m, a reasonable price if he approaches anything near his 2022 output. In both the 2022 season and moving forward, this deal has created headaches on the Yankees side while the Twins undoubtedly became a better team as a result. This is without even mentioning the door to the Correa signing that was opened. Biases aside, it’s hard not to call this trade a win for the Twins. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that even Yankee fans would agree. There’s a chance this deal evens back out based on Donaldson’s or Kiner-Falefa’s performances in 2023, but there’s a better chance it gets even worse. Do you agree that this was a massive win for the Twins? Is it too early to make a determination? Let us know below! View full article