LA Vikes Fan

I think the most likely result is that Culpepper and Jenkins are everyday players at the start of the year, with Emma competing with Alan Roden for playing time. A lot depends on when Buxton will be ready to play. It may not be until next May, so that would give them a month to really sort through this during the regular season. The other possibility is that Roden could and probably should learn to play 1B. Let’s all remember that offensively Roden had the best year of all four in roughly the same number of at bats. All very small sample sizes of course, but I think the Twins will give him a shot to win a job and at least give him a roster spot, especially since he has so far been able to hit left-handed pitching. I would love to see him compete for the 1B job, especially if they plan to leave Clemens at 2B.

Goldschmidt, Really?!! Signing him would be the exact opposite of the direction we should be going. We need to find younger players who could be with us for the long term. This guy is 39, plays no defense, and is cooked to boot. No more signing "names" just so it looks like we're trying. Let's get an actual player that might help us in 2027 and beyond. Goldschmidt ain't it. We need a younger 1b maybe blocked in another organization or an OF we can turn into a 1B while Clemens holds down the fort in 2027. Maybe Roden is the best answer out there. Spend your time looking for a real solution, not extolling the virtues of a washed up has been. C'mon, you're better than this.

I agree with the OP, Keaschall was the team's MVP last year and it wasn't particularly close with Buxton and Jeffers being unavailable for so much of the season. No one can argue that Keaschall wasn't the team's best hitter and best base runner. He was, and once again it wasn't very close - there wasn't anyone in his range. His Defense at 2B was very bad and it might even have been worse in CF, no question, but he improved in RF and was above average by year end if you believe the analytics which here match the eye test. The guy is 23 and just started playing the OF on a regular basis. He will be be a better OF next year. Players actually do improve over time with repetition and practice. I think he'll settle in as an above average but not elite corner OF. I'll take that from a guy who is becoming one of if not the best leadoff hitters in baseball. In short, Keaschall was a very good but not great player last year who could be getting better, but if he's your MVP that says something important about your team. This exercise does really show the Twins key weakness - we don't have the 2 or 3 truly elite players that championship contenders all have to carry the team through the tough times and shine in the playoffs. We don't have the 2026 Brewers Jackson Chourio, Turang, and elite bullpen, the 2025 Dodgers Yamamoto, Freeman, Ohtani, etc. Buxton was that for half a season but that's the best he can be - elite for half a season. We're not going to be able to buy that player as a free agent. They're too expensive and want to play for a contender which means they generally won't come to the Twins in their current condition. That's a fact we need to accept to help determine strategy going forward. You can't get better unless you acknowledge where you are. So what do we need to do to be the championship contender we say we want to be? Quit playing around the edges so much. Don't just sign or trade for another decent but not great veteran DH, another 4th starter, a 6th or 7th inning reliever, etc. like we did last year. That helps but won't get us where we want to go. Try to trade for a true middle of the order bat - I would dangle Ryan plus to try to get that guy. If we can't get that player through a trade, and I think we probably can't, continue and accelerate the roster turnover process we started last year. No more vet placeholders who are "nice players" playing every day. Commit. Play Keaschall, Jenkins, Culpepper, Lee, EmRod, and Roden pretty much every day. See if 4 of them can occupy the first 5 spots in the batting order with Buxton getting the other for now. Bring up Houston early to mid-season to play SS with Culpepper moving to 2B. If that means Clemens becomes a Super UTL/DH/1B guy and Lewis goes somewhere else so Roden can play 1B most days, do it. Re-sign Jeffers even if the contract is an overpay and too long so there's a glide path for Lackey starting with a 1/3 share in 2028, going to a 2/3 share in '29 and '30. Pitch Abel, Preilipp, Matthews, and Rojas in the rotation at the expense of Ober and Kremer (bullpen or trade bait) and see if there are any #1 or #2 starters in that group. Commit to Morris and/or Gomez as your closers, and maybe even put one of Rojas, Matthews or Festa in the BP getting high leverage innings. There's nothing wrong with surrounding these guys with some vets to ease the transition, guys like Buxton, Jeffers, Lopez, and Hoffman, but don't play guys like Bell, Ober, Clemens, Kriedler, Kremer, etc. at the expense of the young guys. Play the young guys. See what you have and see if you've got those 2-3 stars we need. It may be ugly, but it's the best way to get to where we want to go if we have the talent to get there. If it turns out we don't, blow it up and start over. Don't play to be decent to good, play to be very good to great.

This. The guy took over two weeks before the end of Spring Training. He played the previous administrations perhaps the season and then make some changes. Lumping him in with what his boss did, actually two bosses if you count Levine while he was there, is manifestly unfair. How much influence did he have during that time? I have no idea and neither does anyone else here. Let's give the guy a chance and see what he can do.

Agreed. I see 350-400 ABs for another OF next year without an injury to one of the other 4 guys. One of those 4 gets hurt and that guy does not and he could get 500 ABs. Who do you want taking those ABs, Roden, Martin, or one of the guys now in AAA? To me, Roden has shown the most and has the best chance to be the right answer. Also, Roden has hit LH pitching well so far so he can help there and eliminate the need to have Martin around just to have a RH bat. The choice if the roster stays as it is now and Larnach is gone is this - keep 2 of Lewis, Martin and Roden. Based on performance to date, Roden is one of those 2, probably with Lewis. Give Roden a 1B mitt and get him working there. Now.

Well said. Let's not discount Roden just because there are other shiny objects out there that we think might be better. You know what? They might not be better.

Roden has one advantage over his competition (Jenkins and EmRod) - he's actually hit MLB pitching at an acceptable level for an everyday player. Roden hit .291/.376/.392(.768) in 91 PAs last year with an equal 12.8% BB and SO rate. That is significantly better than either of the other two guys. Now, I think Jenkins in particular has a much higher ceiling. Not so sure about Rodriguez. EmRod may wind up striking out 30%+ of the time at the MLB level without the walk rate or power to justify that kind of a lineup drag. I don't see any reason to move on from Roden or send him to AAA. I think you give Roden a 1B mitt, have him work on that during the off-season to improve his versatility, and bring him to Spring Training with a direct opportunity to win a starting job in a corner outfield position or at 1B. He may not be a player who can consistently have an OBP above .370 and a OPS above .750 with a low strikeout rate like he was last year in a limited sample size. But he might be. That is a really valuable player, especially since he's not a defense liability and he can run some. I would not be adverse to putting him in ta trade package to get quality player but I don't see any reason to just to trade him for another prospect. Don't trade away guys who show they could be assets just because you think another guy might be a good player in the future but hasn't shown that yet. Let's keep him around and give him a chance.

I think the scenario you put out is the most likely scenario out there. The Pohlads sell roughly 75 to 80% of the team to the current minority owners or some combination thereof. They then retain enough of the team still be in the pro sports business and get whatever juice comes from being the part owner of a professional sports team, sit in the owners suite at games, etc. Who knows maybe Tom still gets to be the operational partner although you would think a new GM would be hired.

Good post. I see that distinction and don't completely disagree with you. I still think Larnach has enough value to take the risk of a $6.3 million arbitration result because you never actually have to pay that money if you don't want to. It's my understanding that the team do not have to sign a player based on the arbitration amount. They can release that player and walk away but they have to pay the player termination pay the player is released during Spring Training. As long as the release comes before the start of the season, the player could be owed0, or at most 30 or 45 days prorated pay based upon the arbitration award. So let's say Larnach gets an arbitration award of $6.3 million. His contract technically runs for one full championship season which is 180 to 186 days depending on the schedule. So if Larnach got a $6.3 million arbitration award, that's a $35,000 a day contract based on a 180 day championship season. Talk about detail that only a lawyer could love. Here's what that really means. The Twins can take Larnach to arbitration and their risk is at most 45 days of pay if they release him prior to the start of the season, which is $1.575 million. If they release him in the first 16 days of Spring Training, they're obligated to pay him 30 days of pay or $1.05 million. If he is released prior to Spring Training starting, the obligation is zero. So the risk of tendering a guy like Larnach a contract, then going to arbitration if he won't sign for the amount on that contract, is that the Twins would be out (1) $0 if he is released before the start of Spring Training, (2) $1.05 million if he's released in the first 16 days of Spring Training, and (3) $1.575 million if you keep him throughout Spring Training, can't find a taker, and then just release him before the start of the season. There is no world in which you take the risk of having to pay a full guaranteed contract unless you actually sign the contract, which you have to do before season starts to keep the player. In other words, there's almost no financial risk to the team of going through the arbitration process unless you actually sign a contract. So to me, if my highest risk is something like $1.57 million and I think that there is any possible taker out there, I tender Larnach a very team friendly contract before the deadline, go all the way through arbitration if he does not sign it (I don't cut a later deal), and have him come to Spring Training, all the while trying to trade him for value. That way you cover yourself if you have a rash of injuries and need the player, although he is likely to be less than thrilled with the team at that point, and the total dollar risk is limited if you can't cut a deal and just release them at the end of ST. $1.575 million risk is negligible in the overall scheme of a $315-$350 revenue million operation, which is the Twins total revenue as publicly estimated.

Wow, I'm not one but it would be tough to be a wealthy sports guy on this board. The level of innate distrust is pretty amazing although in fairness the Pohlad family has earned it. I would not be surprised at all if the new limited partners came in with the idea that they might eventually buy a controlling share of the team and there may be a preexisting agreement on when and on what terms that could happen. I have no particular insight other than what I read and years of experience litigating over corporate deals that involve buy-ins and limited partners so feel free to discount my thoughts and conclusion. My thoughts are that it wouldn't make a lot of sense for sophisticated business to make a minority investment in a money-losing enterprise unless they thought they could or at least have the option to get majority control, and/or they had a strong sense that that enterprise would be more profitable in the future. You then add in the fact that the investment came at a time when the Twins needed cash so the investors had real leverage, and the fact that the deal occurred shortly before a new comprehensive labor agreement would come into place. I think that there is probably a 75% chance that the new partners bought in with an eye to purchasing a majority share in the team and at least a 50% chance that the framework by which they could do that is already at least partially in place. Maybe it's as little as a a right of first refusal or a right of first offer, or maybe it's a set valuation formula that would be used with options to increase their share at various points in time. All of this leads me to believe that is it is more likely than not that if the new labor agreement provides cost certainty and/or a way to get increased revenue sharing or media right payments the Twins will have a new majority owner within the next few years. That could be as early as the second half of 2027. Whether that's a good thing or not depends entirely on who the new owner is, what their plans are, and what their level of investment will be in the future, but I do have to say that jumping over the Pohlads bar is a fairly low hurdle to clear.

Here is the approach I like and it mostly uses guys we already have. Step 1. We need a high leverage LH reliever. Well, we got one who will soon be a free agent, AJ Minter. He was great for us. Give him the projected $8-12M a year on a 2 year deal. Step 2. Take a starter who can now go only 5 innings and has lost a tick or 2 on their fastball and make them a longish reliver/6th starter in waiting. Hmmm, we got one of those guys too - Baily Ober. Step 3, add in Hoffman, Morris, Gomez, Nance, Funderburk to Ober and Minter and we're 7 relatively proven guys into an 8 man bullpen. Step 4. Add a quality late inning/setup guy. Would love David Bednar, Morejon, Gregory Soto, or Bryan Abreau, would take Paul Sewald or Evan Phillips. If we can't get one of those guys, take Festa if healthy or add Adams. Done. Leave Zebby, Abel and Rojas as starters. One of them will be the 5th starter and the other 2 are starting depth in AAA, along with CJ Culpepper, Gallagher, Quick, and Bohorquez.

Makes sense and it's interesting to see that Roden has a similar profile. Roden in 2026 at the MLB level - .291/.376/.392 (.768) with 117 OPS+, and an identical 12.8% BB and SO rate. His stats and pretty red Statcast page screams "competent MLB starter" in 2026 (all of 91 PS). Kind of shows how random this stuff can be. Who knows, Roden may have gotten the famous "I played a lot in September aginst other team's prospects" stats jump, it might be a one season one or two month hot streak (see Martin 2025), or it might be real. I say we keep GG around and see how next year and maybe even the year after go in AAA. I'm ok with trading him if we're going to upgrade somewhere else like C, the bullpen, or at 1B. If not, keep him and play him every day in AAA. He has a potential future and he's all of 22, turning 23 in January. Way too early to know if he has a future in MN.

Good to know. Claude gave me a number of $127 million so it's pretty close to what Fangraphs has, I think the ultimate point still stands unless Claude's estimate of the Twins CBT number for the guys they currently have in 2027 is off by more than a marginal amount. The hoped for take away is that a "floor" of $171.2 million in 2027 really only effectively requires the Twins to spend about $30 million to augment their current roster assuming they re-sign none of their current free agents. They can meet that number by simply re-signing a couple of guys they should be trying to keep at market rates and locking in a guy like Pablo Lopez or even Joe Ryan longer-term or signing a kind of a mid-level free-agent relief pitcher. The floor proposed by MLB does not require them to go out in the FA market after some of the bigger names or even those a tier below the bigger names. They can meet that floor by keeping some of their own free agents and paying them roughly market rates. I think that's the goal of the proposal. BTW, I don't think you come off as anti-AI at all. AI is just a tool, it's not some omniscient being that is never wrong. It is absolutely worth double checking AI results with other sources. Chances are none of the sources are completely right, including AI, so what you did is exactly the right thing to do.

My view is you don't give Shelton that option. These guys are gone when the final roster decision is made if you got somebody better. If that means going so far as to have to release them, that's what you do. The upside is that you'll be able to either get value for them in a trade, even if it's not the value you were hoping for, or you will have them on the roster because the guys you thought were better turn out to not be better or at least not ready to be given a chance to be better now. The downside is you wind up paying a guy's arbitration salary less the major league minimum because someone will pick him up for the minimum if they're signed and released. That's a risk we should be willing to take to get the potential upside. In my mind, that's what successful organizations do, they don't pinch pennies because they're afraid of risk.

This, and it applies to both players. Larnach is a problem to have if EmRod and to a lesser extent Roden are healthy and showing promise. Lewis "clogs up" the infield if Houston is ready to take over SS or 2B, or we trade for a 2B, and need 1B for Clemens because we don't want him to be a super utility. On the other hand, if what we saw in the small 50 AB tryout we gave to EMRod is who he really is and Roden is the guy he was in 2025 and not the guy he showed in his 100 AB tryout in 2026, it sure would be nice to have Laranach around. In other words, there are a lot of moving pieces here. Both Lewis and Larnach could have value on the roster or be completely redundant. That's true you before you consider who we might get in a trade or trade away, which adds even more uncertainty. That's why you don't make a decision now or at some arbitrary deadline like the tender deadline. You grow some cojones and wait on that decision until you have to make it because the circumstances are likely to change in a way that could impact that decision. Tender them both, come to terms with them both if you have to. Try to trade them from the day after the World Series ends until the last day of Spring Training if you have to wait that long. The only way you lose that bet is if you have players for their positions that you like better and you can't get anything in a trade for one or both, and I mean not even a decent AA player or high upside A ball lottery ticket. You go in with a competitive mindset and that you lose one or both guys if you have better players even if you have to eat their salary. It's a $5 million or $6 million bet per player. I think it's worth making that bet given the cost of player acquisition and development. The conservative cost certain approach would be to try to trade them before the tender deadline and then nontender them if you can't get a return. That's a lousy bet. Pay the money and take your chances. Go big or go home, don't hide your checkbook when it's time to take some risk to make some money. You can't reach your ceiling if you don't jump so grab your balls and jump for a change.