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LA VIkes Fan

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LA VIkes Fan last won the day on May 7 2021

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  • Birthday 10/09/1957

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  1. True that and it points out an issue that the Twins have to deal with. Who is that workhorse? 150 innings a year is the best we can realistically hope for from Sonny Gray and we will probably get less. Same is true for a Maeda coming off injury, Ober coming off a shortened season due to injury, Mahle coming off shoulder issues, and Winder's track record suggests he won't last more than 125 if he's a starter. That leaves Joe Ryan who I think can give us 160-175 innings in the projected starting 5. So maybe we don't "need" a workhorse and maybe baseball has gotten away from that model. It would be great to have one but most teams don't. So what do you do? You fill the AAA rotation with guys who can start when the inevitable need arises. We actually have some depth with Varland, SWR, and even Dobnak (remember him?) but not enough. Not enough; we need more.
  2. I agree. That would be 2 years (2023 and 2024) at around $32m. I can see a deal at 3 years, $36-$40m kicking in at 2023.
  3. I'll add to the chorus - Haniger, Bell or Nimmo are the best options. Nimmo seems likely to stay with the Mets and Haniger with Seattle. I do kind of like Josh Bell. He's a switch hitter, and can play some decent 1B. He is streaky and more of a doubles power type than a HR hitter. At 3 years, $45m he should fit the budget without impacting the return of Correa.
  4. My bad, I missed that. Seems like a light package for Lopez. Having said that, I would make the deal if Miami was interested. Maybe trade out Sands for Varland (baseball trade values has them close with Sands slightly more valuable). Or, if we need to, substitute Winder (much more valuable) and get Miami to throw in a catching prospect? I like Miranda and think he will be an above average but not All Star caliber hitter for the next 10 years. He also plays a position that could be manned by Lewis or Lee in the next year or two. He is exactly the kind of guy we will need to trade to get a Lopez level starter. It's worth it to me.
  5. I'm right there with you and I think you have named the two guys to go after - Fullmer and Rogers. We "should" be able to get both for $12m or less. That leaves enough for Correa and a catcher like Navaez. Trade Kepler for prospects. IF you can get Chris Bassitt, also trade Urshela for prospects and turn 3B over to Miranda, leaving 1B for Arraez and Kirilloff. Now you have your Basitt money. All that leaves in my mind is how to get a RH OF/1B/DH to put in the middle of the lineup. That would then require either raising the payroll (nice thought) or trading prospects (probably at least one pitcher) for that bat. Both are eminently doable. I like Josh Bell or Trey Mancini for the RH hitter role.
  6. I like these ideas. None of these 3 are likely to be lights out back end guys but each could provide some critical mid level depth. I would like to see them re-sign Fullmer for 2 years like you have it, and would actually give Rogers a little more if necessary, maybe 1/$7 with an option at 1/$9. He is left handed and breathing with some track record so he may be popular. May is a bigger risk so I would only sign him to the kind of incentive based deal that you mention.
  7. Interesting. What happened to Miranda? Back at AAA?
  8. Hey, I'm with you on that. Here's a thought, sign Vasquez - 3 years 27m (9 per), Bogaerts - 7 years 196m (28 per), Chri1sBassitt - 4 years 72m (18 per).
  9. You're right about that. My bad. I made the change to Taylor, not Trevor. hey, tomato, tomato...
  10. This is a tough exercise. There just isn't any way to adequately fill all of our needs at SS, SP, RP, C, OF and stay within a 140m budget. So I didn't. I'm a little over with a 2 players who could be dropped to get to $140m. Here's what I did: SS - Sadly said goodbye to Correa and instead signed Xander Bogaerts to a 7 year, $196m deal - $28m a year. SP - Got priced out on Rodon and signed Chris Bassitt instead to a 4 year, $72M deal - $18m a year. Would have him #1 and move Gray and Mahle down. BP- Moved Maeda to the BP but kept his $9m assumed cost, could be lower given his contract. See the Twins re-signing him to a 3 year deal with some extra money to convince him to go to the BP full time. Re-signed Fullmer for $3,m. Added back our old friend Taylor Rogers at $7m on a 3 year, $21m deal. Both Maeda and Rogers may come in cheaper than where I have them. C- Got priced out of Vasquez, signed Navaez for 2 years, $12m. Would rather have Vasquez if he could be had for 6-7m instead of the 8.5-10m I think he'll get. Trades - Had to make payroll room so I traded Urshela and Kepler for prospects. Moved Miranda to 3B, with Kiriloff/Larnach/Gordon to RF/LF, Except.... OF/DH - Signed Trey Mancini to a 2 year $20m deal to be a LF/DH. Would love that player to be Josh Bell as a 1B/DH but he's probably too expensive. Also brought up Martin as a UTL but that could be a number of different guys. Just don't want it to be Garlick again. Mancini is the guy I could lose to get down to a $140m budget. I think we need a RH hitting power guy to hit 4th or 5th so really want to keep one of them. Would prefer to lose Rogers and have Sands or Henriquez fill that spot in the bullpen or sign a deal with Maeda to lower his 2023 cost. Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Jose Mranda ($0.70M) SS: Xander Bogearts ($28.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) DH: Trey Mancini ($10.00M) 4th OF: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.70M) Backup Omar Navaez ($6.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Chris Bassitt ($18.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Baily Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) RP: Michael Fullmer ($3.00M) RP: Taylor Rogers ($7.00M) Payroll is 1.20% over budget
  11. Here's a good 4th reason - Jeffers is the best we got and there isn't anyone else out there who isn't going to cost a lot in prospects. Sean Murphy? I'd love to get him but the cost starts with Lewis or Lee PLUS a quality pitching prospect. Contreras? It's him OR Correa, not both, I'd rather have Correa. Here's my thought - Christian Vasquez. Great concept but probably 8-9m a year for multiple years. Tough for a 32 year old catcher. Might even be more and will he leave Houston after winning the World Series for a team that won 78 games a year ago? If he would, we could fit him in AND get Correa and maybe Rodon, but only if if we traded Kepler and Urshela for prospects to free up salary room. Maybe that works because we have Miranda and Larnach/Kirilloff/Gordon to play their spots. To me, there are 2 good choices. Choice 1 - get Vasquez, move Urshela to 3B and Larnach or Gordon to RF, trade Kepler and Urshela, sign Corrrea and Rodon. Choice 2 - go with Jeffers, sign one of the usual suspects (Navaez, Barnhardt, Leon), trade Urshela and/or Kepler, sign Correa and Rodon, sign a quality relief pitcher (Robertson?). Likely Twins move - sign Navaez, keep Kepler and Urshela, sign Elvis Andrus to play SS, sign Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana, Michael Wacha, or Tijuan Walker as a SP, roll with the bullpen as is.
  12. Doesn't this depend a little on who else we have and who we can get? Duran has shown himself to be an elite reliever. We don't know if he can replicate that as a SP or if he can remain healthy in that role. Yet, I think many of us would agree that the biggest, hardest to fill hole on the Twins (as on most teams) is a true #1 starter. Second toughest? A true shutdown closer. Duran has the talent to be either guy and we don't really have anyone else close unless SWR can be that #1 starter. It would probably take 2 seasons for Duran to make the transition to a full time starter and he's arguably already the shut down closer or close. I do think it's pretty clear that a #1 starter has more value and is harder to buy than a shut down closer. If we can get a Robertson type closer, I say give Duran a shot at starting. If we can get a Rodon type starter, keep him in the pen. If we don't sign either, on balance I would leave him where he is although to me it's a very close call. The injury risk tips the scale for me. My take: let's see what else we have after FA before deciding.
  13. $75m is definitely enough to get somebody's attention.
  14. I agree that the current payroll can handle one large contract fairly comfortably. The real question is to me, is that one contract for a pitcher, a shortstop, or can we afford both? I think a pitcher gives you more value but higher injury risk, and the drop off from the top pitchers to the next level is pretty steep. I think we can afford both as long as one of the contracts is in the $35 million year range and one of the $20 million a year range or some combination that adds up to $50 – $55 million. Dump Kepler and that goes up $5m-$8.5m. Maybe Correa and Bassitt? Bogearts and Rodon? Correa and Rodon with no Kepler and no Urshela? I vote for signing Correa long term now, trading Kepler for prospects to free up another $8.5m, keeping Urshela, and spending the other $20-$30m million on a combination of Bassitt, David Robertson or Corey Kenebel, and Christian Vasquez. That may be more than we've got to spend but a guy can dream right?. Will be fascinating to see.
  15. Just an FYI on how state income taxes work for pro athletes, entertainers, etc., people who put on "shows" in various states. Each game is a game check and you pay taxes in the state in which that game check is earned. So, Corey Seager still pays California income tax, the difference is that he pays it only on California source income, i.e, the prorated portion of his compensation earned when the Rangers play in the state. These guys all file 20-30 state tax returns every year to account for the income they earn by playing or appearing in states with an income tax. So, the lack of a Texas state income tax is a real difference but it's not like it's a tax vs. non tax difference. The worst place to play for income tax purposes is New York City. There, you pay New York City income tax (3-4%) as well state and federal income taxes. Still, if you want to be a star you gotta play in NY and LA . . .
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