LA Vikes Fan

I like the "play for the future" approach, but I would do it a little differently. I see SWR and Festa in the bullpen by June 1 if Festa is ready to pitch and Ryan isn't out more than a month. I see Matthews taking SWR's rotation spot, with Morris staying in the bullpen and transitioning to a late inning high leverage role, perhaps even being given a shot at closing. I'd also like to see Rojas coming up to the bullpen. Pitching I'd like to see by June 1, health permitting ; Starters - Ryan, Bradley, Ober, Abel, Preilipp, with Matthews the 6th starter at AAA. Bullpen - Topa, Orze, Morris, Rogers, Funderburk, and SWR followed by these guys in order depending on health - Sands, Festa, Rojas, Acton, Lawyerson, Klein, Banda, Garcia. The last group is subject to change depending on health and performance. Ideally, the last 2 in are Sands and Festa, with Lawyerson, Rojas, Acton, and Klein available at AAA when one of the others craters and Banda and Garcia somewhere else or at AAA if they clear waivers. Festa is the AAA closer to get experience in the role. Morris and SWR handle late inning work, Sands and Funderburk are the firemen for high leverage situations. By August 1, Festa is closing in the bigs and Rojas is also in the BP, probably at the expense of Topa and Rogers, both of whom are traded for prospects. Aug 1 BP is Morris, Orze, Festa, Funderburk, SWR, Sands, Rojas, and either Lawyerson or Klein. Acton was also pitching well before he went on the IL and is "only" 27, so I could see him taking a spot.

You forgot Contracting Tuberculosis, also higher than Subway but below Getting Hit by a Bus.

Boy, is that good to see. Maybe the change in coaching staffs is helping. The next step is better hitting discipline - productive outs moving guys to third base after leadoff doubles (or singles plus a SB), sac flies when needed, etc. This team can only win if it is fundamentally sound. We don't have the talent to bludgeon anybody.

Right now we are 7 starters deep with Lopez and Festa out - Ryan, Bradley, Ober, Abel, SWR, Prielipp, and Matthews. Morris can also be stretched back out although I see a real future for him in the bullpen, maybe even in higher leverage situations. Rojas is not quite ready but we saw in his work earlier that he isn't far off. Festa has shoulder issues that may limit his workload. A look at the Saints roster shows no bullpen help unless you believe in Matt Bowman. Everyone else there is doing poorly with maybe Peredes or Drew Smith as an option, Bring Festa back in the bullpen. We have the starter depth and we need bullpen pitching badly. We don't have to decide a path until next year: he won't be able to build back up a a starter until at least late July or August any way so he's no real help this year. Festa has shoulder issues that will limit his workload even if he does build back up. Try him as a late inning reliever this year and then decide.

Interesting idea. Can Culpepper play 2B? Keaschall also may need a reset if things don't improve by May 15 to June 1. If he's still struggling, then bring up Culpepper, play him at either 2B or SS with Lee manning the other.

I like Bell too, I just can't figure out how to roster him, Martin, and Larnach, play the first 2 regularly and Larnach against LH pitching, and still give ERod or someone like him (GG?) a shot at regular playing time. Bell just isn't much of a 1B. Maybe the real bullet to bite here is to DFA Clemens, play Bell everyday at 1B, and leave Larnach as a DH/4th OF. Then the Wallner for ERod switch is pretty straight forward.

My frustration is that Martin isn't playing every day. You're right that Outman isn't the problem; Wallner is. Shelton seems to feel obligated to play Wallner a lot if he's on the roster even though there are 3 OFs much more productive so far this year. If he's on the IL or in AAA that opens up the lineup for Martin to play every day. That still leaves the problem of finding time for Emma to play unless Bell plays in the field, because they like to have Martin and Larnach in the OF so Bell can DH and Clemens play 1B. Once again, no room at the Inn for Emma. I think you have to deal with both Wallner and either Bell or Clemens before a spot really opens up for Emma. Bringing him up to platoon with Martin so some combination of Larnach, Bell and Clemens can play is a waste. The thought on Outman was to open up a roster spot for GG but you still have the problem of finding him ABs. This roster needs some major reshuffling before the AAA OFs can really get a chance. I'd like to get it started sooner rather than later.

I agree, although I really wonder if there is a market for Wallner. He's a guy that would only to a bottom feeder team looking ahead to better times in a couple of years (think Rooker going to the As) and he's already 28 so his prime is almost gone. I think the better move is to use the rib issue as a reason to IL him for 10 days and then send him to AAA for a 20 day rehab assignment and see if we can get him going. That gives us a month to see if Emma (or GG) is MLB ready. Maybe even teach him 1B during the rehab assignment. This is sad and unfortunate but needs to be done. This team is regressing to its mean, about a .450 winning %. It's time to turn over the roster. Wallner goes first so Emma can play. Next move is Outman gone for GG, then Clemens or Gray for Culpepper unless a Lewis injury opens up a spot for him earlier. I'd do the same thing in the bullpen but we don't have a lot in AAA and you can trade relievers at the deadline, even mediocre ones. Hell, I'd like to see Lewis on a rehab assignment in AAA playing 1B every day and a second half of Lewis/GG at 1B, Keaschall at 2B, Culpepper SS, Lee 3B, with Emma, Buxton, and Martin the starting OF, Larnach/GG at DH, Bell traded for young relievers, and a bench of GG (OF/1B), Gray (IF UTL), Caratini (C), and Wallner/Clemens (OF/1B).

I agree with the OP analysis. The bigger question is can you fix this, and how? No one knows the answer because no one knows how different players might perform, but it sure seems like there are steps that need to be taken: Outman DFA, Emma up. Wallner demoted, GG up. Clemens DFA, Kriegler or Arcia promoted to play SS everyday and improve the defense. Lee moved to 3B, Lewis benched, and the two share 3B with Lee playing 2B on occasion. Lewis plays 1B some. The new SS is just keeping the seat warm until Culpepper is ready to be promoted. Unless he improves over the next week of home games, Keaschall back to AAA for a reset. Replaced by a platoon of Gray and Kreidler with Gray also getting ABs against LH. Banda DFA, Rojas promoted to a bullpen role. When Abel is ready to return, Prielipp stays in the rotation and SWR moves to the bullpen (assuming Prielipp pitches well in his next two starts). At that time, Rojas goes back to AAA if he has not performed and if he has, Morris or Funderburk down. I searched for better bullpen moves to make but I just don't see any other than promoting a journeyman retread like Brebbia and I just couldn't see the point. Adams may be a guy in a couple of weeks. Lineup going forward: Martin LF, Buxton CF, Larnach/Bell/GG DH, Jeffers/Caratini C, Lee 3B, Keaschall/Gray 2B, Emma RF, Bell/GG 1B, Arcia/Kreideler SS. I think he is we've either got to significantly improve the defense or score more runs. I see the path to improving the defense as a better bet than improving the offense. By moving Lee we improve at short and at 3B. Emma is a huge upgrade over Wallner in the outfield, and by making Larnach a basically DH only player, you improve the left-field defense by having Martin play every day. 1B is still a defensive black hole but frankly GG can't be any worse than Bell and who knows, maybe he'll improve enough to stay there. Keaschall needs to fight off Gray to keep his job with a AAA reset an alternate possibility, Wallner can come back when he's got his stroke back but he's a fallback if Emma can't hit MLB pitching yet or fighting for playing time. He's had his shot. Bottom line moves - Out - Outman (DFA), Clemens (DFA), Wallner (AAA). In - Emma, GG, Arcia or Kreidler Bench - Lewis

A lot of talk about Wallner the same day that there was a very good article about wOBA as a measure of hitting value. wOBA basically takes the same stats that make up OPS and add in the situation in the game. We all know a bases clearing double is more valuable to the team winning than a bases empty double the next inning, for example, so the bases clearing double gets a gagster weight in wOBA. Before some of you guys complain about "more nerdy stats", I think this stat works well and I'm as old as most of you and grew up in baseball in the 1960s. So first, here ae the parameters to tell who's good: Elite - .400+ Excellent - .360 to .400 Above Average - .345 to .360 Average - .332 to .345 Below Average - .315 to .332 Poor - Below .320 The best 5 in 2025 - Aaron Judge - .463 Shohei Ohtani - .418 George Springer - .408 Cal Raleigh - .392 Kyle Schwarber - .391 Juan Soto - .390 Hmm, maybe this is meaningful. The Twins who play regularly so far this year 2026 wOBA/2025 wOBA: Bell - .344/.324 Buxton - .326/.377 Caratini - .309/.318 Larnach - .393/.317 Wallner - .283/.334 Keaschall - .255/.363 Martin - .431/.333 Lewis - .334/.292 Jeffers - .377/.333 Lee - .280/.286 Clemens - .288/.307 Interesting stuff that frankly seems to be borne out by the eye test. Buxton is above average to elite, Bell average to above average, Caratini isn't much of a hitter, etc. This does tell us that our best hitters this year are Martin, Larnach, Jeffers and Bell, with Buxton likely to join them. It also tells us that Clemens can't hit, Lee can't either (at least so far), and Lewis hasn't been great since 2023 after a wOBA of .370 in 2022, .393 in 2023, and .317 in 2024. In other words, Lewis has been a below average hitter by this measure and most others now for 2 plus years which coincides with his most ABs. Not good. Wallner is interesting because he was average last year, horrible this year, but was excellent in 2023 and 2024 with an wOBA of .385 and ,377 respectively. It makes sticking with him understandable but also his regression downward over the last two years when he has gotten to play more is very concerning, much like Lewis. Let's face it, if Wallner doesn't hit he provides negative value to the team because he's a below average OF at best (I would say lousy), and he can't run. At all. Wallner and Lewis have been unmasked with regular playing time (and injuries, in Lewis' case). They are in "prove it" years. If they don't hit this year at ages 29 and 26, their odds of a long term MLB career take a huge hit. I think you give Wallner until about May 15 to June 1 to pick it up this year. If not, time to try someone else. Lewis is younger so maybe he gets the season but if he doesn't hit this year we should understand that he is very unlikely to be a middle of the order guy at any point. Also, for Gosh sakes, bench/DFA Clemens, play Bell at 1B against RH pitching, and get Martin in the frickin' lineup almost every day!

Looks like we get to see Rojas next. Decent work by Prielipp. Deserves another start.

We will find out how much rope any of the rotation has with Prielipp starting tonight and probably at least 2 more times before Abel is ready to come back (if we're lucky). Prielipp is really the only starter at AAA that has made a case for being promoted to the MLB rotation so far. If he's good, SWR and Ober may have a shorter leash. If he isn't, those two get lots of time since there's nobody to replace them.

Agreed. Martin should be playing at least 5 days a week. That may mean Bell has to play 1B, or Wallner or Clemons sits. So what? Play your best 9 regularly. Martin is easily one of our best 9, probably one of our best 5.

As it turns out, this was all for naught. CES was traded to the Orioles for that always exciting payer "cash considerations".

It’s good to see they’re actually making these moves after this weekend. Have to think Morris is going back down and there may be an IL move coming to make room for Prielipp. I don’t think they would bring him out unless they were planning on putting him on the roster. We played a playoff team last weekend and the bullpen wasn’t good enough hold two winnable games. I feel like in the past we would’ve just kept what we had but at least now they’re trying to make things better. These guys may not actually be any better but at least they’re making the effort, something sorely lacking the last couple of years.

While I generally agree with Mike, I do think there’s two other factors that have to be considered. First, there are more billionaires in California than any place else in the US, and if California was its own country it would be fourth in billionaires in the world behind the entire US, China, and India. In other words, there is a much larger group of people willing to pay this kind of money for an asset in California which drives up prices. The second is that the Padres have consistently drawn over 3 million fans in the last few years in large part because the owner invested in the team and it was fun and exciting to watch. My question is if a Twins owner invested heavily in the team, would the Twins really draw 3.5 million fans a season? I really wonder if the market is just a little more capped in Minnesota due to the size of the stadium, the overall wealth in the area, and the intense competition from other sports for the entertainment Dollar. I still agree with the premise of the article and with Mike’s comment, but I think the differences between the two markets make a one for one comparison somewhat misleading..

Keaschall is batting number three because of a lack of other good alternatives. They dropped him to number five today with Bell in the three hole. It wouldn’t surprise me if next week Keisha was batting six or seven with Lewis ahead of him. He’s a 23-year-old guy just trying to find his footing in the bags. Less stress might be a good thing. I think the first 20 games showed us a couple of things. First, Martin needs to get a shot at playing every day. He seems to be building on his good showing the last two months of last year so let’s make him a lineup fixture either leading off or in the number two hole. Frankly, I would put Buxton back to number three and have Martin lead off. Second, the experiment to have Wallner hit left-handed pitching is just not working out at all. I understand that you need to have either Larnach or Wallner play against left-handers if you’re going to have both of them in the roster. That just shows the problem; they are basically duplicative players, and there really is only room for one of them. Frankly at this point. Larnach looks more like that one than Wallner.

I think you're right. Things are different. Starting Pitchers stay in the game longer, hitters are looking for contact more and walking more instead of looking for HRs all the time, the team seem looser and more connected to each other, and the vibe just feels different. Look, this team has some serious flaws. They will manifest over the course of the year and there will be some stretches of bad play and losing streaks. Still, we could have tanked right out of the gate and didn't. I have to give Shelton some credit for that. Now, if only we could find a bullpen some place . . .

This is really the issue. It's not so much that we have too many LH hitting corner OFs, it's that the ones we have are so limited in what they can do that it creates roster problems. Wallner hit .202 last year with a .775 OPS and is hitting .191 this year with a .629 OPS. The promise he showed limited ABs in 2023 and 2024 hasn't translated to a full time role. Larnach hit .250 last year with a .727 OPS, and wile he is dong better this year in a small sample size it is limited to a platoon role. Neither is a good fielder and neither runs the bases well so their contribution is almost entirely based on what they do at the plate. Both should primarily DH with only 2 or so days a week in the OF. In other words, its not that the Twins have "too many" LH corner OFs, it's that that the ones they have aren't all that good at the MLB level. It is rapidly becoming time to try out the next wave to see if they can do better. It's hard to do that when we already roster two guys that are pretty redundant. At some point, we are either going to need to go with what we have and use the AAA OFs as a way to shore up the rest of the roster (RP?) or cut bait with one of these two (or both) and give the AAA guys the room to run. I think that point will come later this year, probably through an injury creating opportunity.

BTW, fixing this bullpen is not going to be easy looking at what other teams are claiming, bringing up, and signing. Just in the last couple of days teams are picking or binging up such familiar retreads as Richard Lovelady (Nats). Ian Hamilton (Braves, who DFA'd Osvaldo Brito), Martin Perez (Braves), and Cal Quantrill (Rangers). It's ugly out there. Maybe it's time to convert a couple of AA starters to relief, specifically Klein and Matthews. Both are pretty high octane, Klein only for short stints (read reliever), and both are struggling as starters. There are some starters performing in AA who could come up and take their place. The Twins are going to need relievers so let's get some created.

I agree. We will really need at least 2-3 more bullpen arms this season, at least one of whom can close games, if only to cover for injuries and ineffectiveness (Banda). More likely we'll need 4-5. I'm not seeing a lot in St. Paul unless we plan on transitioning AA or AAA starters to relievers - Klein, Matthews, Prielipp, Culpepper - except maybe retreads like Brebbia, Bowman, and Smith. Are there any guys in AA that we could move up to the MLB BP, even if they are starters there? If not, we are going to need to trade for some bullpen help. Kopech is still available but has expressed a desire to return to a starting role, and is projected to get $13-20m on a 2 year deal. That's a big financial risk given his injury history and he may just be waiting for a contending team to need a starter before he comes back any way. I don't think he's going to be the answer. We need to be working the phones for relief help.

Absolutely. Seeing what we got should be the number 1 objective for this season.

Right idea, wrong guy. Gabriel Gonzalez has been playing some 1B. GG was also our best hitter in Spring training, although off to a slow start in AAA (like the rest of the team). The date for callups without losing a year of control is somewhere around April 16, or Thursday. Give him a couple more games at 1B this week and call him up for Friday's series against the Reds. Looks like we will see two LHs that series if they stay on schedule, Williamson and Abbott. Good chance to have him play 1B and see what he can do at the plate without burning a year. I'd love to see him against Boston, where we will also see two lefties, but not at the cost of a year of control. We don't need Outman to back up Buxton with Kreidler on the roster. Kreidler is a better defensive CF than Outman and let';s be honest, neither one of them can hit a lick.

I think you're right, but just a little delayed.

I think you're right on the current approach but it would be nice to have another late inning option that you can count on to close. Morris throws hard, which helps this group a lot, but he is properly targeted as more of a long man given his starting experience. Is there anyone in AAA that could be a late inning guy/closer? Altavilla was good last year in ERA and throws 98, but his FIP was lousy and he's 33. Do you guys think Klein or Baker can pitch late innings in the majors? The other obvious choices are Prielipp and Matthews but I'd like to see both try to be starters first. We are going to need another late inning reliever or 2 by mid season if not sooner.