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LA VIkes Fan

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Everything posted by LA VIkes Fan

  1. Another good evaluation moment. Let's see how Gordon does against a LH specialist out of the bull pen.
  2. Wow, Sano goes the other way! He is learning? I hope so. By the way, that's a line drive in the scorebook...
  3. From that shot it looks like Ryan is trying to talk his way into another inning. I hope they give it to him. I know he's at around 87 pitches but let's see if he can go 100 pitches, get into the 3rd time around the order, and show us something. Can't learn if you don't get a chance.
  4. I do have to say though, 9 SOs in 4 2/3 is nothing to sneeze at no matter how good the other lineup is. Make that 10 SOs in 5 innings. That part is impressive even if I don't get it.
  5. This is a bad Cubs lineup. Hopefully a good way to build some confidence. By the way, with Polanco and Buxton out ours isn't that much better. I'd like to see Ryan pitch against Houston or the Yankees and see how he fares. He's looked good but 2 starts against Cleveland and 2 against the Cubs definitely helps.
  6. Agreed. The velocity makes one wonder how he is this successful so far but it seems to be working. he does look a little tentative.
  7. Good analysis. This article points out something we all kind of know and supports it with real data. Kepler is an above average fielding corner outfielder with a well below average bat. I don't think moving him to centerfield really helps a lot because tat minimizes his one asset, an above average glove, because he would be an average at best centerfielder. The problem is he just can't hit and for some reason he is unwilling to do anything other than pull the ball on regular basis. He's got to be the easiest guy in the American League to shift against. With these flaws, I think it's unlikely that we would be able to trade him for much pitching unless we included an upside prospect with him in a package. Maybe somebody who is not an elite or even strong prospect but projects to be a possible mid to back rotation starter or solid bullpen piece regarding whom there is still some doubt. That might be someone like Winder or Strotman or, if we are willing to take more risk on the return side, maybe someone like Jax or Barnes. I will say that if I'm right on the possible return, Kepler probably has more value to the Twins than he does to anybody else. We are probably still a year away from having a capable replacement given the somewhat gaping hole we presently have in left field. Even if Kirilloff becomes our regular leftfielder and continues his development as a solid or better than that hitter, it's not like we have another outfielder banging on the door to take Kepler's place in 2022. Larnach wasn't quite ready when he came up this year and neither is Celestino or Rooker. I think the best thing for Kepler is to continue to work with him on learning to hit the ball to left field while at the same time effectively platooning him with who we think is our best right-handed hitting outfield prospect to give that player a chance to develop. In my view, that's probably Celestino given how well he hit at AAA when he went back down. We use the 1st half to two thirds of 2022 to see if the younger player can develop and/or if Kepler and finally gets a better approach at the plate and each of them and effectively also functions as the backup centerfielder. I just don't think trading him makes sense because of the low likely return and I do think the Twins highest priority in the off-season is to re-sign Buxton
  8. I agree on the SS position. I just don't see them trusting Polanco or Gordon, nor should they. I would expect them to sign someone like Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias although the latter just had kind of a brutal year in the field for the Angels. How about Sano as a bounce back candidate? He's had a strong second half but he was so bad the first half that he was almost unplayable. I would consider a .240 avg., 35 HRs and a 30% or less strikeout rate a great improvement. That may be more of an improvement than a bounce back though. The other bounce back candidate is Tyler Duffy. Again, better in the second half but not good in the first. I would love to se him show up in shape and have a sub 3.00 ERA year but having two good halves instead of just one.
  9. I think in evaluating the 40 man roster decisions last winter we have to bear in mind that the Twins were expecting to be contenders. Window was wide open as they say, until it turned out to be totally shut. Either way, last winter the Front Office seemed to prioritize players who would be able to contribute right away, like Devin Smeltzer, over the players they saw as being a couple of years away, like Tyler Wells and Baddoo. It’s the same reason we have so many AAAA players at Saint Paul, we were looking for guys who could come up for a few games and potentially contribute rather than guys to develop because we were in the contention window. Well, that evaluation turned out to be wrong. Now, we have to make the same evaluation again. Is this team going to contend in 2022 we should be playing for the long haul? I think it goes without saying that we should be playing for the long-haul given the state of our pitching staff. To me, that means he made 40 man decisions based upon long-term prospects without considering the short term. Guys like Jake Cave, Astudillo, Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer, Luke Farrell, Nick Vincent, etc. are not protected so that you can keep the guys you consider to be the better long term prospects. Next year is more of a development year where who knows, maybe we get lucky and contend, not a year we expect to contend. Hopefully the Front Office sees it the same way and makes 40 man decisions accordingly.
  10. Frankly, I feel like I'm repeating what others have said, but don't spend a lot of money on position players, spend it on pitching. I'd love to see them sign Chris Taylor but the Dodgers really like him so he won't be cheap. More likely is Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias. Please dear God, no more of Simmons. On the pitching side, I think 18-22M for a front line starter is too low. I think its more like 20-25m. Would love to see them devote 35m a year to starters, something like 20m to Stroman and 12-15m to Robbie Ray, both on 3 year deals. More likely combination is someone like Stroman plus Pineda for a total of 30m. If they do the latter they probably have enough to sign Taylor to go with it. I'd love to trade for controllable starting pitching but I don't think we have the talent to pull it off. We'd have to trade someone with a very high potential ceiling like Woods Richardson PLUS a Kepler and a position player prospect like Celestino to get a controllable #2 or #3 guy. I would rather keep the talent we have, sign one high end FA starter and get by with Pineda in the 2 spot, followed by Ryan, Ober and Dobnak/Winder/Duran, etc. Then spend 10-15m on 2 solid/good bullpen pieces, plus a glove first stop gap SS like Galvis. Probably doesn't get us to contention in 2022 unless we get lucky, but will hopefully develop what we have for 2023-2025.
  11. Wow, just heard that the Twins have allowed 70 unearned runs this season The combination of shaky pitching with shaky IF defense is deadly. I love Polanco but he needs to play 2B. We gotta get a good glove SS for next season.
  12. This inning is why we need a SS for next season. Can't make that kind of error against a good team. We need a steady defensive SS behind this pitching staff to have any sort of chance.
  13. Did I read on one of these threads that Rooker's OPS over the last bit of time was in the .900 range? I didn't realize he'd shown that improvement. If there's any thought that the improvement is real, he's on the team in 2022. We desperately need a RH OF to play when Kepler (should) sit and to DH. He can't play CF but Kepler and Celestino can...
  14. Wow, Arraez is bad against LH pitching. Those are very ugly numbers. That's why I see he and Donaldson basically sharing 3B and the DH spot against RH pitching, with a RH hitting backup OF taking the Arraez role and DHing against LH pitching.
  15. Abolsutely. At worst, we find out that Gordon can't be an everyday SS but he gets some experience at the MLB level playing the position so he can play their on a utility basis if necessary next year. Who knows, maybe we will get lucky and he actually has a chance to play there on a regular basis. If he can, we do not have to to spend money to bring in a free agent SS and we can use that money on pitching. Probably not, but it sure as heck doesn't hurt to try him out now. It's kind of hard to care if we go 10 – 6 for the last 16 games or 6 – 10.
  16. A couple of (I think) safe assumptions - Corey Seager will stay in LA or at least not come to MN, MN will not pay the 15-20m a year necessary to get one of the top FA SS, will lose Simmons, and will pick up an interim guy. With that: C - Garver, Jeffers 1B - Sano 2B - Polanco SS - Galvis or Iglesias 3B - Arraez/Donaldson LF - Kirilloff CF - Buxton RF - Kepler/Refsnyder platoon DH - Donaldson/Arraez I see this as the only way to get all of Arraez, Donaldson, Kirilloff and Sano in the lineup. Sano has hit .252/.333/.542 (.855) the last 30 games and I'd wager that's about what he's done the second half of the season as a whole. He's won a 2022 spot. He's got to play 1B and Kirilloff in LF to get Arraez in the lineup by splitting 3d base and DH with Donaldson. Donaldson is only good for 70-90 games a year in the field so a split there and the DH makes sense. Kepler starts because we (unfortunately) don't have anyone better but he can only play against RH pitching. I'd love to see us get a RH OF FA - Rooker isn't the guy - to be the weak half of the RF platoon, DH against LH pitching with Arraez on the bench, and DH when Donaldson and/or Arraez is on the shelf.
  17. How to spell the right term for a guy like Jax whos is consistently excellent the first time through the order, gets hit hard the second time, and gets absolutely shelled the third time? R-E-L-I-E-F PITCHER . I think Jax has some talent but I also think we've seen enough to know that he isn't a top 5 starter on a winning team. I think the issue is whether he provides more value as the 7th or 8th starter awaiting the call from AAA or whether he could be an effective reliever in a MLB Bullpen. I would love to give him a try in the bullpen this year but with all of the injuries I don't know that we have anyone to take his place if we give him a shot in relief. I'm glad Gordon played SS last night and I think we should keep doing it. I didn't see the game but we need to know if he can hold down that position. If he can't, he's a utility player fighting for the 25th or 26th spot on the 2022 Twins and we go out and get a FA SS in the off season. If he can, then we spend our SS money on pitching. One game isn't enough to know. I'd like to see him start at SS for at least 12 of the last 16 games so we can find out if he's a possible answer.
  18. Interesting idea for which you should be congratulated, but I come out as a "No' because I don't see Torres glove work as good enough for a team with a very young starting pitching staff. Freddy Galvis is a better choice. Juan Igelsias also MIGHT be if his work for the Angels this year is an aberration and he rebounds to be the better SS that he has been in the past. Having said that, the idea of trading Kepler for a shortstop and/or pitching help is a good one but I think you guys are smoking crack as to Kepler's value. If we are being generous, Kepler is a good fielding, below average hitting corner outfielder (waaaaay below average in 2021) with occasional power who can play a decent but not great center field in a pinch for a couple of weeks. In other words, he is a good, solid 4th outfielder on a contending team. If we look at his history, this is all he has ever been other than in 2019 and it is becoming more and more clear that his performance in 2019 was an outlier probably assisted by the juice balls used that year. He is not going to be good enough to get a controllable starting pitcher even as the lead player in a package. He is the 2nd or 3rd player in that package. We are going to have to trade somebody better from the farm system, like a young pitcher, to get that controllable starter. Kepler is nowhere near enough.
  19. Well, the good news is he'll be ready for 2022 even though he's probably done for 2021. Is Gant also done for the year after yesterday? Let's see that leaves us 4-5 innings a game from Ober, 3-4 from Pineda, and .... ??? Wow, we get to see more of Griffin Jax and Charlie Barnes. Maybe even more of Albers. Oh boy, can't wait! This is becoming so pathetic that you just have to laugh. Or cry... Sooo, any chance of starting Strotman, Balazovic or anyone else in these last 17 games? I know, No.
  20. I love this idea. I may do the same. I'm already thinking of betting on Arizona Sunday in their game with the Vikings for the same reason,
  21. I think the on thing that is verifiably true is that Front Office has done much better than the second time around Ryan Front Office. Now, is it good enough to take the Twins to consistently competitive and win a World Series or two? The jury is still out. The positives - pitching pipeline is starting to hit with Ober and hopefully Winder and Balazovic, decent early returns on drafts with Kirilloff, and they made two good prospect trades with the Blue Jays and Rays. The negatives - too many reclamation projects in the bullpen, very poor evaluation of potential veteran starters this year with Happ and Shoemaker, and an inability to re-sign Berrios or as of yet extend Buxton (although ownership may share in that failure). The Ryan group had to go for the Twins to move forward. This group is better. Not sure if it's good enough. To me, the criticism that this FO has not signed a top FA pitcher is simply unfair and ignores the real problems we have in the FA market. We don't get top FA pitchers because we aren't willing to pay the freight and because the players would rather go to the markets where the ancillary money opportunities are better and the weather is better. We didn't sign Berrios because we weren't willing to pay him what he wanted. Someone else will and that is the reality of the FA market. You want a top FA starter? Prices start at 20m - 25m a year for multiple years. You don't want to pay that for a guy who maybe isn't a top 5 or 6 pitcher or a guy who's been hurt in the past because of the risk? Then you don't get anybody. Marcus Stroman next year. $20m plus for at least 3-5 years. And that's before we consider the fact that he could make another $3-$5m in endorsement income if he's personable enough and goes to LA, NY or Chicago and there's lots of places he can go where it isn't snowing in April. The Twins are probably going to have to overpay for a top tier free agent starter. Bottom line, if you're not willing to pay for a Mercedes, get off the lot. You have to pay and then pay again if the first guy stinks or gets hurt if you want to play with the big boys in free agency. We don't do that and that's not on the FO, that's on ownership. Sorry to go on a rant there. I just think we have to judge this FO on what the best (and perhaps only) way for Twins to compete; Drafting and development of our own young players, particularly pitchers. The grade so far is incomplete because they haven't yet had quite enough time. We'll know pretty well by the end of the 2022 season where we stand on the development side. That's when we can judge and that's the criteria to me.
  22. Good to see Moran get a shot before season's end. I hope he can be part of next year's pen.
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