LA Vikes Fan

A lot of talk about Wallner the same day that there was a very good article about wOBA as a measure of hitting value. wOBA basically takes the same stats that make up OPS and add in the situation in the game. We all know a bases clearing double is more valuable to the team winning than a bases empty double the next inning, for example, so the bases clearing double gets a gagster weight in wOBA. Before some of you guys complain about "more nerdy stats", I think this stat works well and I'm as old as most of you and grew up in baseball in the 1960s. So first, here ae the parameters to tell who's good: Elite - .400+ Excellent - .360 to .400 Above Average - .345 to .360 Average - .332 to .345 Below Average - .315 to .332 Poor - Below .320 The best 5 in 2025 - Aaron Judge - .463 Shohei Ohtani - .418 George Springer - .408 Cal Raleigh - .392 Kyle Schwarber - .391 Juan Soto - .390 Hmm, maybe this is meaningful. The Twins who play regularly so far this year 2026 wOBA/2025 wOBA: Bell - .344/.324 Buxton - .326/.377 Caratini - .309/.318 Larnach - .393/.317 Wallner - .283/.334 Keaschall - .255/.363 Martin - .431/.333 Lewis - .334/.292 Jeffers - .377/.333 Lee - .280/.286 Clemens - .288/.307 Interesting stuff that frankly seems to be borne out by the eye test. Buxton is above average to elite, Bell average to above average, Caratini isn't much of a hitter, etc. This does tell us that our best hitters this year are Martin, Larnach, Jeffers and Bell, with Buxton likely to join them. It also tells us that Clemens can't hit, Lee can't either (at least so far), and Lewis hasn't been great since 2023 after a wOBA of .370 in 2022, .393 in 2023, and .317 in 2024. In other words, Lewis has been a below average hitter by this measure and most others now for 2 plus years which coincides with his most ABs. Not good. Wallner is interesting because he was average last year, horrible this year, but was excellent in 2023 and 2024 with an wOBA of .385 and ,377 respectively. It makes sticking with him understandable but also his regression downward over the last two years when he has gotten to play more is very concerning, much like Lewis. Let's face it, if Wallner doesn't hit he provides negative value to the team because he's a below average OF at best (I would say lousy), and he can't run. At all. Wallner and Lewis have been unmasked with regular playing time (and injuries, in Lewis' case). They are in "prove it" years. If they don't hit this year at ages 29 and 26, their odds of a long term MLB career take a huge hit. I think you give Wallner until about May 15 to June 1 to pick it up this year. If not, time to try someone else. Lewis is younger so maybe he gets the season but if he doesn't hit this year we should understand that he is very unlikely to be a middle of the order guy at any point. Also, for Gosh sakes, bench/DFA Clemens, play Bell at 1B against RH pitching, and get Martin in the frickin' lineup almost every day!

Looks like we get to see Rojas next. Decent work by Prielipp. Deserves another start.

We will find out how much rope any of the rotation has with Prielipp starting tonight and probably at least 2 more times before Abel is ready to come back (if we're lucky). Prielipp is really the only starter at AAA that has made a case for being promoted to the MLB rotation so far. If he's good, SWR and Ober may have a shorter leash. If he isn't, those two get lots of time since there's nobody to replace them.

Agreed. Martin should be playing at least 5 days a week. That may mean Bell has to play 1B, or Wallner or Clemons sits. So what? Play your best 9 regularly. Martin is easily one of our best 9, probably one of our best 5.

As it turns out, this was all for naught. CES was traded to the Orioles for that always exciting payer "cash considerations".

It’s good to see they’re actually making these moves after this weekend. Have to think Morris is going back down and there may be an IL move coming to make room for Prielipp. I don’t think they would bring him out unless they were planning on putting him on the roster. We played a playoff team last weekend and the bullpen wasn’t good enough hold two winnable games. I feel like in the past we would’ve just kept what we had but at least now they’re trying to make things better. These guys may not actually be any better but at least they’re making the effort, something sorely lacking the last couple of years.

While I generally agree with Mike, I do think there’s two other factors that have to be considered. First, there are more billionaires in California than any place else in the US, and if California was its own country it would be fourth in billionaires in the world behind the entire US, China, and India. In other words, there is a much larger group of people willing to pay this kind of money for an asset in California which drives up prices. The second is that the Padres have consistently drawn over 3 million fans in the last few years in large part because the owner invested in the team and it was fun and exciting to watch. My question is if a Twins owner invested heavily in the team, would the Twins really draw 3.5 million fans a season? I really wonder if the market is just a little more capped in Minnesota due to the size of the stadium, the overall wealth in the area, and the intense competition from other sports for the entertainment Dollar. I still agree with the premise of the article and with Mike’s comment, but I think the differences between the two markets make a one for one comparison somewhat misleading..

Keaschall is batting number three because of a lack of other good alternatives. They dropped him to number five today with Bell in the three hole. It wouldn’t surprise me if next week Keisha was batting six or seven with Lewis ahead of him. He’s a 23-year-old guy just trying to find his footing in the bags. Less stress might be a good thing. I think the first 20 games showed us a couple of things. First, Martin needs to get a shot at playing every day. He seems to be building on his good showing the last two months of last year so let’s make him a lineup fixture either leading off or in the number two hole. Frankly, I would put Buxton back to number three and have Martin lead off. Second, the experiment to have Wallner hit left-handed pitching is just not working out at all. I understand that you need to have either Larnach or Wallner play against left-handers if you’re going to have both of them in the roster. That just shows the problem; they are basically duplicative players, and there really is only room for one of them. Frankly at this point. Larnach looks more like that one than Wallner.

I think you're right. Things are different. Starting Pitchers stay in the game longer, hitters are looking for contact more and walking more instead of looking for HRs all the time, the team seem looser and more connected to each other, and the vibe just feels different. Look, this team has some serious flaws. They will manifest over the course of the year and there will be some stretches of bad play and losing streaks. Still, we could have tanked right out of the gate and didn't. I have to give Shelton some credit for that. Now, if only we could find a bullpen some place . . .

This is really the issue. It's not so much that we have too many LH hitting corner OFs, it's that the ones we have are so limited in what they can do that it creates roster problems. Wallner hit .202 last year with a .775 OPS and is hitting .191 this year with a .629 OPS. The promise he showed limited ABs in 2023 and 2024 hasn't translated to a full time role. Larnach hit .250 last year with a .727 OPS, and wile he is dong better this year in a small sample size it is limited to a platoon role. Neither is a good fielder and neither runs the bases well so their contribution is almost entirely based on what they do at the plate. Both should primarily DH with only 2 or so days a week in the OF. In other words, its not that the Twins have "too many" LH corner OFs, it's that that the ones they have aren't all that good at the MLB level. It is rapidly becoming time to try out the next wave to see if they can do better. It's hard to do that when we already roster two guys that are pretty redundant. At some point, we are either going to need to go with what we have and use the AAA OFs as a way to shore up the rest of the roster (RP?) or cut bait with one of these two (or both) and give the AAA guys the room to run. I think that point will come later this year, probably through an injury creating opportunity.

BTW, fixing this bullpen is not going to be easy looking at what other teams are claiming, bringing up, and signing. Just in the last couple of days teams are picking or binging up such familiar retreads as Richard Lovelady (Nats). Ian Hamilton (Braves, who DFA'd Osvaldo Brito), Martin Perez (Braves), and Cal Quantrill (Rangers). It's ugly out there. Maybe it's time to convert a couple of AA starters to relief, specifically Klein and Matthews. Both are pretty high octane, Klein only for short stints (read reliever), and both are struggling as starters. There are some starters performing in AA who could come up and take their place. The Twins are going to need relievers so let's get some created.

I agree. We will really need at least 2-3 more bullpen arms this season, at least one of whom can close games, if only to cover for injuries and ineffectiveness (Banda). More likely we'll need 4-5. I'm not seeing a lot in St. Paul unless we plan on transitioning AA or AAA starters to relievers - Klein, Matthews, Prielipp, Culpepper - except maybe retreads like Brebbia, Bowman, and Smith. Are there any guys in AA that we could move up to the MLB BP, even if they are starters there? If not, we are going to need to trade for some bullpen help. Kopech is still available but has expressed a desire to return to a starting role, and is projected to get $13-20m on a 2 year deal. That's a big financial risk given his injury history and he may just be waiting for a contending team to need a starter before he comes back any way. I don't think he's going to be the answer. We need to be working the phones for relief help.

Absolutely. Seeing what we got should be the number 1 objective for this season.

Right idea, wrong guy. Gabriel Gonzalez has been playing some 1B. GG was also our best hitter in Spring training, although off to a slow start in AAA (like the rest of the team). The date for callups without losing a year of control is somewhere around April 16, or Thursday. Give him a couple more games at 1B this week and call him up for Friday's series against the Reds. Looks like we will see two LHs that series if they stay on schedule, Williamson and Abbott. Good chance to have him play 1B and see what he can do at the plate without burning a year. I'd love to see him against Boston, where we will also see two lefties, but not at the cost of a year of control. We don't need Outman to back up Buxton with Kreidler on the roster. Kreidler is a better defensive CF than Outman and let';s be honest, neither one of them can hit a lick.

I think you're right, but just a little delayed.

I think you're right on the current approach but it would be nice to have another late inning option that you can count on to close. Morris throws hard, which helps this group a lot, but he is properly targeted as more of a long man given his starting experience. Is there anyone in AAA that could be a late inning guy/closer? Altavilla was good last year in ERA and throws 98, but his FIP was lousy and he's 33. Do you guys think Klein or Baker can pitch late innings in the majors? The other obvious choices are Prielipp and Matthews but I'd like to see both try to be starters first. We are going to need another late inning reliever or 2 by mid season if not sooner.

I like Martin's game on this team. We need guys on base or our collection of plodding power guys isn't very useful. He should be playing every day and absolutely should not be ceding ABs to Clemens, who cannot hit and is not part of the medium or long term future. Long term, Martin probably profiles as the 4th OF once the AAA guys arrive and at least one establishes himself. I like his defense in LF. I have to think with practice and coaching he has the tools to play an average or slightly above average CF. We need a backup CF now and we're going to need a new starting or backup CF in a few seasons. We should see if Martin can be that guy, even if Emma or Jenkins becomes the starting CF in a couple of years. I think he could be very valuable for the next 4-5 seasons as a 3rd/4th OF getting 400-500 ABs a year hitting .275-.300 with an OBP over .350 and a .375 SLG. He would even be more valuable if he could competently play 50 games a year in CF. That player can play on a winning team.

I think this is really the important issue. What we need to do is make sure that our priorities are straight on who plays most of the time. Clemens is not part of the long-term roster; he is at best a nice bench piece. Don’t find him at bats. Play Wallner, Larnach, and Martin against most right handed pitchers with Bell at first base. Clements can get an occasional start at first base in place a Bell or at DH in place of Larnach, but don’t put him in a regular rotation. He just isn’t good enough and he’s already 30 years old. Play the guys who hope to be part of the near to medium term future.

I think you’re right on Lewis. A knee sprain is not an insignificant injury. It’s also the kind of injury that needs to heal completely or there’s a very significant risk of re-injury, particularly since this is his plant leg which takes the heavy twisting force when he swings. I think he is probably out at least three or four weeks if not longer.

Agreed. I would actually like to see them play Kreidler at short 2 or 3 days a week with Lee or Gray at third. He is far and 80away the best defensive shortstop we have. I am very much with you on the outfielders. Martin is far from perfect, but he shows some real potential and should be playing regularly, not just in a platoon. Let’s see if you can hit .280 with a .375 on base percentage like he did for two months last year while playing good outfield defense. That’s hard to do if you want to play Wallner every day and still get Larnach into the lineup. This gets us back to the same roster construction problem that this team has, too many limited corner outfield types. I would like to see them make some kind of move to break that log jam by trading Larnach for a relief pitcher. If they did that, they could then bring up Roden, Emma, or GG, have Wallner DH at least half the time, and have Wallner, Martin, and the call up man the corner outfield spots. That does mean Josh Bell playing first base at least halftime, but I think that’s inevitable. The most likely result, though, is that they’ll leave things as is until there’s an injury of some kind. Sometimes these things have a way of working themselves out when someone gets hurt. I actually think what’s likely is that all of these moves to get the younger guys up will happen this year, just not as soon as many of us would like. I expect to see a much different roster by July.

Glad to see the Twins go for the 24 year old Morris rather than a waiver pickup/retread like Kent or Altavilla. This year is for development. Let’s see what the young guys can do. I get bringing up Kreidler for defense at SS and CF, and I hope it’s a prelude to sorting out the bench. We now don’t need Outman since Kreidler can back up CF. I’d really like to find a way to bring up GG or Emma and get them playing time. That probably means losing Outman and either Larnach or Clemens so we’re still a couple of steps away.

For your mouth to God's ears. I would do that deal.

We need a RH hitter and 1B is open First, pick up Christian Encarnacion-Strand, just DFA'd by the Reds. May not work, but has a chance. Was good in 2023, not so good in 24 and 25 due to injuries. Second, trade Larnach for a RH stick and/or bring up GG.

This. Martin needs to play so we can decide if he's part of the developing core or not. I know Bell stinks at 1B and Larnach can't play there but those are two facts we just have to live with. I'm willing to give up 1B defense so Martin can play regularly in LF. What I'm not will to do is trade Martin ABs for Clemens ABs, which is essentially what they're doing. Martin may be part of the near and long term future. Clemens is not.

Interesting, because at $13-15M a year, the case for paying Jeffers and retaining him is pretty compelling. I think the bigger issue might be whether he is willing to stay or will want to go to a team that has a larger competitive window. I wonder of the managerial shift will impact the Twins' ability to retain players. The little I've read suggests that Shelton is pretty charismatic. Where the money is roughly the same, I think players really think about whether the team is committed to being and staying competitive, where their family is comfortable, and where they are comfortable with management. I don't think a manager can cause a player to stay for $5m less a year, but it can really make a difference if the money is roughly the same. The Twins obviously have a long way to go to convince anyone that they are committed to being and staying competitive but if they can, Shelton may make a difference.