LA Vikes Fan

Can't bring Wallner up because he can't play in the field and we actually have a competent DH. I like the guy and hope he gets a chance but I think it will have to be with another organization.

Agreed. I think Culpepper is the primary starting SS for the rest of the season if he shows anything at the plate. We need to know if he can be the SS next year. This won't be his only shot if he fails, but this is his best shot to grab that position before Marek Houston forces things. I really hope he takes advantage.

I'm right with you. I understand why they gave Roden a shot given his age and AAA production but it's time to end that experiment. If Buxton DHs once a week in place of Bell (Bell is another guy to keep off the field), now we're getting closer to 3 games a week for Jenkins AND he can play CF when Buxton is the DH. Definitely improves the CF defense when Buck is out and you have to believe Jenkins can at least match Kriedler's offensive output. I have to admit I'm warming up to the idea of a Jenkins for Roden switch. I'll bet what's happening behind the scenes is they're waiting until the end of this week to make the call. That way, we know more about what Buxton can and can't do and when, we've got more data on whether Roden can hit MLB pitching (not looking great sovfar), we know a little about whether Culpepper is ready and thus how badly we need Kriedler to play SS, we've waited on injuries, and we still preserve Jenkin's rookie status. I would like to see Jenkins up this year. Lots of ways that can happen.

I see your overall point here and completely agree with you on Caratini. The man should never see any position other than catcher. I think where you and I disagree is that I want Buxton and Keaschall playing pretty much everyday and I'm not enthused about Keaschall at 2B. I also want Martin in the lineup against LH pitching. So let's say there's 6 games a week, 18 OF games a week (6x3) to go around. If you give Keaschall and Buxton 11 of those games (they each sit once every 2 weeks) and Martin 2, there's really only 5 games a week in the OF left, 6 if you only give both Keaschall and Buxton 5 games a week. That's 2 or 3 apiece for Larnach and Jenkins (Roden goes to AAA for Jenkins). I guess that's not too bad and it's more like 3 or 4 if Martin sits. Workable, I guess, but less than optimal in my view. To me, the optimal allocation is Larnach and Martin in a platoon that takes 6 games a week, and Buxton and Keaschall taking 10 or 11 of the remaining 12 OF games. That only leaves 1 or 2 games in the OF for another guy unless Jenkins takes some of the platoon games allocated for Larnach. Maybe you could find 1 more game by sitting Bell once a week but it's hard to find IF games because Clemens would become a full time IF with Kriedler backing up 3 of the 4 spots. You really have left the 12th spot for a 5th OF playing 1 or 2 games a week (now Roden) and then the 13th spot for the 3rd C/pinch runner/pinch hitter now occupied by Jackson. I'm fine with Roden as the 5th OF since I don't have really high hope for him but I'd rather not have Jenkins in that role. That's why I think Buxton's health is key, and whether there is an injury is important. That's what would open up real playing time for Jenkins. I do want to echo what others have said. All of the OFs are hitting pretty well. Rookies often struggle when first coming up - see Roden and Culpepper so far. It's a big leap to say that Jenkins will definitely hit better than anybody we currently have, even Roden. He might be worse. It's a fair question whether the gymnastics necessary to get him in the lineup is going to improve or degrade the offense. The odds are he will make the offense the same or worse, not better. I do think he will improve the defense.

Me too, but I'll bet Bell is back. He's well liked in the clubhouse, leads the team in RBI, and looks like he'll hit 20 plus HRs. Plus, he's realtively cheap with a $10m option for 2027, $1.25M buy out if they don't exercise the option. Effective net cost of $8.75M. He'll be back IMHO.

This is tempting. I'm not sure you're right about "not replacing anyone who has performed at a high level". What this really means if you want to play Jenkins even 4 days a week is that Larnach will see much more bench time. IF (and it's a big if) Buxton really is healthy by the weekend/early next week, he plays pretty much every day. Keaschall has been our best hitter since July 1, by far, with a .909 OPS in July and .915 so far in August. He's hit at a high level and plays 5-6 days a week. Martin has hit LH pitching at a high level with an .809 OPS with a .400 OBP against LH pitching (.258/.409/.400), so far this year and is second on the team with 12 stolen bases playing only part time. He's a great leadoff hitter against lefties and starts all of those games. The only OF hole left is to bench Larnach against RH pitching. Maybe it's time, he had a .918 OPS in July, .836 in July, but a .182/.280/.455(.738) slash line so far in August, and give those 20-25 ABs a week to Jenkins. Still, tough to bench a guy who's hitting .276/.365/.442 (.807) on the year for a guy who's hitting .259/.388/.500 (.888) in the MINORS. Even if you bench Bell twice a week, tough to do to a guy who leads the team in RBIs and has a 1.132 OPS in August, you only find maybe 8- 10 PAs a week. Remember, with all of this Clemens moves to the IF as the every day 2B, no ABs in the OF. That part I agree with, make Lewis the regular 1B and Caratini is only the 2nd C with no time at 1B. Caratini isn't hitting. He carried us in June so it was right to see if he could break out of his slump but he's had that chance and hasn't hit at all since July 1. My view is that if that's what you got to do to give Jenkins 20ish ABs a week, and I think it is, at least wait until August 15 to preserve Jenkins' rookie status. An injury may provide your answer by then or Buxton may not be able to come back. Then you have a place for Jenkins to play at least semi-regularly. If not, tough decision. If we wanted to give Jenkins a real shot, the thing to do was to trade Larnach. They tried that and by all reports Houston's owner shot it down. Now I thank we need to wait one more week and then decide.

Much as I would love to see Jenkins play, it look like Buxton will be back this weekend or early next week at the latest. Buck will play CF every day. Where do you play Jenkins? Can't sit Keaschall, he's the best hitter on the team since July 1 (30-95 since July 1, .909 OPS in July, .915 in August so far), and we need his speed on the bases. Larnach had an .918 OPS in June, .836 in July, .738 so far in August, so while he's trending down he still needs to play. There's no place to play Jenkins unless we move Keaschall back to 2B, have Lewis play 1B, and make Clemens a UTL. Not a bad idea until you remember what a butcher Keaschall was at 2B and we're losing Clemens bat. You don't want to bring up Jenkins to sit on the bench. Right now, Roden can have that 5th OF/plays twice a week at most spot on the bench when Buck comes back. Looks to me like it will take an injury for Jenkins to come up.

That sounds about right for an arbitration result, and about right for his value if not even a little light. He's probably a $25m a year guy for 4-5 years on a long term contract. He's not a $30m a year guy because of his history of second half injuries/swoons and he's really a #2 starter, not a #1 IMHO. He's already going to be 31 next June so he's not a guy any team can afford to give a 6-7 year deal other than the Dodgers or the Yankees. I think the likely trade return is basically Skubal light. Instead of 2 top 100 prospects, he probably brings one top 100 prospect with a likely MLB trajectory so Hope or River Ryan, not both, plus a competent MLB bullpen arm or decent prospect (think a Minter or Nance type, or a Gallagher if it's a prospect), plus the high upside lottery ticket. I think that's probably what he's worth this offseason assuming there's a new CBA at some reasonable point. I say we offer him 4 years, $100M staring in 2027 to buy out his last arb year, with a willingness to go 5 years at the same level or maybe a little higher. Remember that a $25m pitcher in 5 years is equivalent to a $20m pitcher today with inflation and the way baseball salaries keep rising. If that's not enough, trade him for the kind of return I outlined. If we can't get that, get his usual great first half in 2027 and then at the 2027 deadline choose between the available return or keep him and give him a a QO in 2028 and collect the draft choice.

We're basically trying to cover 4 positions here until Buxton is back- 1B, 3B, LF, and RF - if you assume that Culpepper is the primary SS. So just for fun, here are the slash lines for the affected players against LH pitching: Caratini - .195/.314/.287 (.601). Ugh. Larnach - .154/.267/.308 (.575). Double ugh. Kreidler - .189/.286/.284 (.570). Not getting any better. Lee - .198/.268/.302 (.570) - Kreidler without the glove. although his line v. LH pitching last year was .266/.298/.379 (.677). Maybe some hope there? Roden - .429/.429/.429 (.858). All of 7 ABs, SSS. Still, better than any of the rest. Martin - .248/.404/.363 (.767). Done in 113 ABs 2026, last year hit .346/404/.481 (.885) in 52 ABS against LHs. Bottom line is the guy can hit LH pitching pretty well. Clemens - .239/.293/.467 (.760). There you go, that's the ticket... Jenkins (AAA) - .254/.338/.349 (.687). Highish OBP, but no power. Would power come with time? So, to me it's pretty clear that Clemens and Martin should play against LH pitching given the choices. I would say that the best batting lines correspond with the best defense for the other 2 spots, you play Roden and either Lee or Kriedler, not Caratini or Larnach. Interestingly, a call up of Jenkins might help against LH pitching. Jenkins would have to replace Roden, really no other way to get him consistent ABs. My basic lineup vs. LH starters - Martin (LF), Jeffers (C), Bell (DH), Lewis (1B), Keaschall (CF), Clemens (2B), Lee/Kreidler (3B), Roden/Jenkins (RF), Culpepper/Kreidler (SS). Feel free to switch 7 and 9 around depending on who plays such that Kreidler is always the #9. Caratini is the backup C playing 1 game of 3, Larnach is an available LH PH as is whoever is not in the SS/3B mix that day, Jackson is the 3rd C, RH PH, pinch runner. Against a RH starter, Lee always plays 3B, Larnach takes Martin's spot, Clemens and Keaschall flip flop in the order, everything else stays the same. Caratini plays C one game a series and you time that for a RH starter. Works for me.

We have to play him somewhere. Keaschall has been the best hitter on the team since June 1, hands-down. Only Bell is even close. He has to play every day. I prefer right field over centerfield for obvious reasons, but he’s got to play somewhere.

This inning is a lineup construction problem. We went with this lousy defense on the right side so that we could get Caratini in the lineup. He isn't hitting - at all - and should only be playing C 1 out of 3 games to give Jeffers a rest. Lewis plays 1B, Clemens 2B. Clemens much more likely to make that play. If that means Larnach has to play LF or Roden RF against a LH starter, you do it. OPS vs. LHs - Caratini .670, Larnach.575. Roden .858 (SSS). This one is on Lewis first, the coaching staff second.

You may be right. Do you think Ben Ross could fill the same role and hit more? He might be the alternative.

I wouldn't go that far. Kriedler has a viable MLB role - he is the classic UTL IF who can also play CF, Perfect 12th/13th guy on the on the field roster IF he can hit even .225 with occasional power. Jury's out on the bat. We've seen great hitting for 2 months and horrible hitting for the last 6 weeks. He's got that job for the rest of 2026 and probably for 2027 unless Ben Ross takes it from him. i see him starting 1-2 games a week to give guys rest playing SS, 2B, and 3B, with an occasional start in CF.

We have to play Keaschall every day - he has been our best hitter for the last month, bar none. .311/.425/.478 over his 30 games/90ABS/103 PAs. He is not a platoon guy; he needs to play pretty much every day for the rest of the season unless he slumps badly. Thank God we moved him to the #2 hole rather than wasting him at #8. While Roden is improving, he hasn't really seized the opportunity. Martin looked like he was a viable starting MLB OF last year with 2 very solid months not so much this year. Keaschall is actually doing ok in in a corner OF so far and looks like he could be a backup CF with item. Maybe the move is Jenkins up, Roden down, with Jenkins in CF or RF until Buxton comes back. IF Jenkins takes off, Keaschall can move back to 2B (not my favorite), Lewis at 1B and Clemens as a Super UTL. If not, he can be a rotation guy with Buxton, Larnach, and Keaschal playing 3 days a week and getting his feet wet. Couple important facts on who is hitting and who isn't over their last 30 games: Who's Hitting ; Luke Keaschall - .311/.425/.478 (,903) Royce Lewis - .266/.347/.514 (.861), Ryan Jeffers - .264/.352/.500 (.852), Josh Bell - .250/.323/.455 (.778). They play every day to the extent we can. Who's Not Hitting - Victor Caratini - .216/.280/.320 (.600), Brooks Lee .219/.282/.333 (.615), Alan Roden - .559 OPS (SSS< 45 ABS), Ausitn Martin - .617 OPS (SSS, 52 ABS), Kody Clemens - .217/.250/.450 (.700). Play the guys who are hitting. One exception - we need a good fielding IF so find times to play Ryan Kriedler, even though he's hit .170/.198/.250 (.448) in his last roughly 100 PAs. New Batting Order with Culpepper and Jenkins - Larnach/Martin platoon LF, Keaschsall RF, Jeffers C, Lewis 1B/2B, Bell DH, Clemens 1B/2B, Lee 3B, Jenkins RF, Culpepper SS. When Buxton comes back, slot him in the leadoff spot he likes so much, move Larnach to #3, move 3-7 back one and make Jenkins a 3-4 day a week guy to give the other OF guys some rest and one day where Keaschall plays 2B and Lewis/Clemens plays 1B. Play Martin against lefties, hit him #9, bench Larnach, and slide everybody else up one. Jackson is a bench guy/3rd C/pinch runner, Caratini plays 1/3 of the games at C, rarely at 1B. If Caratini is hurt, call up Ben Ross to be an IF UTL playing a couple of days a week adn Jackson plays 35% of the time as the C.

I'm with you on that. Move Houston up to AAA and get his feet wet now. Let's see if he's a viable option for 2027 or if he'll need more time to be ready at the plate. From what I read, he ready now to come up and field the SS position in the Bigs.

You're right. They got rid of that. Ignore my musings, everyone.

That's too bad. I feel for the guy to have this happen just as he was getting on the radar. Probably helps us in one way. He didn't impress in his debut but he didn't get a very long leash and he isn't the first guy to stink in his first shot at the Bigs. If he's out for the year, it becomes a lot easier to take him off the 40 man now to open a spot for Jenkins or Ross (or CJ Culpepper, Houston, etc.), get him through the Rule 5 draft, and still have him for next year if another opportunity arises. Maybe he's better the second time around A lot of guys are, including Tori Hunter and Mike Trout. They both stunk their first go around, had to go back down, and then made their mark.

Sing it, brother! Let's give Zoll a chance to make his own mark. I'm keeping my pitchfork in the garage so its handy but I'm going to wait on re-ordering tar. Amazon can get it to me overnight so I should be good.

Something's off with Caratini. I bet you're right. Maye he is the guy that goes on IL to create room for Jenkins next week.

Got ninjaed. This is the right thing. Open up a 40 man spot for Culpepper.

No, gotta be Gray going down or released. Roden just hit a double and is slowly improving. He or Martin goes down when Buxton comes back. One other thought. This is the time of year where basically every MLB player goes on revocable waivers. That means Alex Jackson has been there. Maybe he didn't get claimed. If he didn't he can be assigned down, removed from the 40 man roster, and still be int the org as catching depth.

No it's not. It's a round pastry with fruit and icing on top, isn't it? Goes well with a strong French Roast.

Players keep their rookie status next year if they have 45 days or less on the active roster and 130 ABs or less. Being a rookie allows the Twins to pick up an extra draft pick in the competitive balance round right after Round 1 if (a) the player earns rookie of the year the next season (here 2027), or (2) places in the top 3 in the Cy Young or MVP ballots prior to qualifying for arbitration. A player qualifies for arbitration after 3 years of service time. We can meet these thresholds if we wait until 8/15 to have 45 days of service time or less and manage their ABs to top out at 130, post season ABs don't count. There are 38 games left starting 8/15, so that means 3.42 ABs per game. Easy to stay under without thinking since if they actually play in even 35 of those 38 games, the ABs jump to 3.75 a game and walks, sacrifice flies or bunts, HBP, etc, don't count as ABs. Like everything else in baseball, there is actually a stat on this. The leadoff position in the batting order averages 4.6 PAs game, 4.2 ABs, going down to the ninth spot which averages 3.7 PAs/game, 3.5 ABs. Bottom line is that by bringing someone up on August 15 and even playing them the entire game 90% of the time (almost nobody plays every day), it's pretty easy to stay under the 130 AB threshold. These guys wouldn't play that much so the at-bat threshold is kind of irrelevant. I found 6 players that have earned their team an extra draft pick since this rule came into effect - Julio Rodriguez (Mariners) for finishing as the rookie of the year 2022, Corbin Caroll (Diamondbacks) and Gunnar Anderson (Orioles) in 2023 for rookie of the year awards, Bobby Witt earned one for the Royals in the 2025 draft finishing in the top three MVP while pre-arbitration, Hunter Brown for the Astros in the 2025 draft for finishing in the top three Cy Young balloting pre-arbitration, and the Braves from Drake Baldwin being rookie of the year in 2025. The player has to come north with his team on Opening Day to be eligible for this incentive draft choice. The whole idea is to incentivize clubs to bring their promising players up from the beginning of the season rather than manipulating service time by waiting 45 days before calling them up so their first season doesn't count as a full season for purposes of computing the three years prior to arbitration. Players who are called up during the season who then win the rookie of the year award, which is more than half of the winners, do not qualify their team for this extra draft pick. So in other words, if you try to manipulate the service time by waiting 45 days to call up at hotshot prospect and with the rookie of the year award, save me year on their service time but you don't get the extra high draft pick from them winning the award. The pick is valuable because it usually falls between about number 25 and number 35 in the draft. So, if we think there's any realistic chance that either Jenkins or Culpepper could win the 2027 rookie of the year award or finish in the top three MVP balloting 2027, 2028, or 2029, it makes sense to wait the extra 10 days to have the shot at the draft choice. Here, the decision to wait is relatively easy since they both fairly recently came back from the injured list and need a few games to knock the rust off. That's why I would wait the extra 10 days. This year, the Twins have nine games between today and August 15, so those are the games they would miss.

There you go. The Twins chose a path, they are trying to compete for the division title or a wild card spot in the 2026 and 2027 seasons. Many of us would have chosen a different path but that's the one they chose. Now make decisions based on that choice. Nothing is more of a "half measure" than choosing a lane and then not making moves that might make that lane successful. So let's quit worrying about what might happen if there is a substantial work stoppage in 2027. Let's not fear the risk of loss; let's focus on the possibility of gain. The only place you and I differ is that I think calling up Culpepper and maybe Jenkins could provide a spark and might help this team. It seems like you are a little less hopeful that will occur. Hey, you might be right; I certainly don't know enough to accurately predict what will happen. Having said that, I would call up Culpepper and Jenkins on 8/15, assuming they both continue to hit in AAA for the next 10 days, in place of Gray and Roden unless he all of a sudden one of them gets hot. If one of them does, then Jenkins comes up for the other. Keep Jackson for now, and his spot can be the spot you use to get Buxton on the roster. Buxton can join the roster for Gray if he's available before 8/15, but everything I read suggest he's going to be out at least two or three more weeks. All of this assumes that nobody else gets injured which is usually what happens to open up a spot. Let's all stop the handwringing and make some moves to see if this lane actually works. If it doesn't, at least we tried to make something happen rather than sitting around in limbo which is our usual state.

According to the Athletic, the plan was to have Jenkins replace Larnach if the Houston trade had gone through. I don't think the Twins have any immediate plans for Wallner. You have to assume they tried to trade him at the deadline and found no takers. I think all we can do is hold him until next spring and see if he's improved enough to be a DH with Bell gone (if he's gone) or try to find a trade partner then.