LA Vikes Fan

Amen, brother.

Two thoughts. First, I agree with this. I think it i more likely that Matthews would get optioned out of ST than SWR. Not because SWR is better or has a higher upside, Matthews does, but simply because Matthews has options. We will want to keep both and that's the way to do that. Bradley has much more upside than either of them and is more competent now than Matthews so he will be in pen, not in pencil, for next year's rotation. That may be the one trade from the deadline that we actually win. Second, why not one of those 3 in the bullpen. I know SWR isn't the classic hard thrower who survives in the bullpen but there have been a lot of guys who provide real value as the 6th starter/long man. That could be a good role for him. Alternatively, how about Matthews as a late inning or closer type? I think it's too soon to give up on him as a starter but I could see him in that role. The rest of them? Probably gone or in AAA on MiLB contracts. I could see Clemens or Outman as a bench guy but I hope we can do better. I'd frankly rather give those PAs to Fedko, Gonzalez, Emma, Jenkins, Eeles, or any number of other guys.

I think the reason people propose moving Keaschall to 1B is a little different - we don't have a 1B in the organization and we might have a 2B with either Eeles or Culpeper. Personally, I'd love to see Keaschall grab 2B by the throat and play there for 10 years. If Culpepper comes up, he can play SS and Lee can go to the bench.

Thanks for letting me know. That makes me hope even more than the 1B plan for next year is Larnach or Wallner.

Good analysis, and really what we should be focused on now. Let's separate the wheat from the chaff for 2026. Bradley is looking more and more like a 4/5 starter to me and, even better, one who can chew up 150 plus innings a year. With the news that Festa may have thoracic outlet syndrome, trading for Bradley starts to make sense. Clemens and Gaspar don't help us much at all. I guess I could see Clemens as the 26th man, but not really. Gaspar is the classic AAAA player. I agree with you on Lewis but we're stuck with him at 3B for at least another year to see if he can recapture his form. He doesn't have much trade value at this point and we really don't have a replacement unless and until Kaelon Culpeper is ready. Lee could play 3rd but he can't hit and we don't have another SS. IF Outman can't play an average or better CF there is no place for him. We really need a 1B. I'm surprised Fedko isn't getting a look but that may have to do with service time or getting him 1B reps in AAA to learn the position. I really would like to see them try to move Wallner or Larnach to 1B in the offseason and Spring Training or, even better, sign Naylor. I'd like to see a Larnach/Fedko 1B platoon with Fedko also a bench bat/5th OF, Wallner as an OF/DH, and Buxton, Martin, Jenkins and Outman or Emma as the other OFs. I think we have to look internally since any FA money will be used to try to buy half a bullpen.

Ouch.

That would really suck.

I tend to be a little more optimistic than many here about the 2026 Twins so I agree with you. Part of that is because I don't think it makes baseball sense or financial sense to trade Ryan or Lopez in the off-season even if you're trying to keep the payroll down. The smarter move is to hold them until the trade deadline because you will get more for them if they are healthy and performing, which I think is a good bet. Neither one of them have onerous contracts that are difficult to service or would be difficult to move. Those kind of contracts tend to be the veterans that get moved in the off-season. Also, if you just keep what you have and add 2-3 bullpen pieces at a total of $10 million or so for the season, you still have the payroll around $100-105 million. That payroll is very serviceable if the new investors money is used to eliminate debt and free up your cash flow. I'm perhaps more optimistic than many because I actually see the outlines of a decent lineup for next year between Buxton, Wallner, Martin and Jenkins in the OF, and Keaschall, Jeffers, Lewis, and maybe Lee in the IF. Yes, we desperately need a 1B and another bat to help at DH, a decent backup C, and we may need a shortstop depending on whether Lee can get marginally better both in the field and at the plate. Larnach may fill one of the 1B/DH needs, but I suspect he'll be traded. I think if we keep the guys we have we actually have a top 10-15 rotation. The bullpen is a dumpster fire right now but that is the easiest thing to rebuild on the fly with veterans who command under $5 million a year and/or current MiLB starters moved to the bullpen. I really think we're going to see two of Festa, SWR, Raya, and Matthews in the pen next year, my guess is in that order and probably from early in the season. If you squint hard enough, you can see the outlines of the team that could win 80 – 83 games if people just perform at a "normal" level, and one that can win 85 or more with marginal improvement from some of the young players (particularly Keaschall, Lee, Wallner, and Lewis). Having said all that, the first half of 2026 is critical. If this team is struggling and is 10 games under 500 in July, I think we are going to see a serious purge to have as little payroll on the books as possible going into the potential labor related stoppage of 2027. That's when I could see guys like Buxton, Ryan, Jeffers, and Lopez traded for more prospects and we might even see them include Lewis, Ober, and Larnach on the bus out of town. So while I'm optimistic that we could have a decent team in 2026, maybe even a pretty good one, that's going have to materialize early in season or what was started this trade line will be completed at the next one.

This is good to hear. Buxton is in a unique spot to speak out with with his no trade clause and commitment to staying. I really wonder if the front office will have the ability to make moves this offseason. The new investment should free up the cash flow to increase payroll. Let's see if they use it.

Thanks. That all makes sense to me. It's interesting that on the 2025 Twins, the WAR leaders are Buxton at 4.7 to date (draftee), Ryan at 3.4 (traded for as prospect), Jeffers at 1.9 (draftee), Lopez 1.6 (traded for after MLB debut), Keaschall at 1.6 (draftee)., Wallner at 1.3 (draftee), Matthews at 1.2 (draftee), and Lewis at 1.1 (draftee). That's it for guys over 1 that are still with the team. Bader had 2.0 before being traded, Jax 1.5, Duran 1.2, Paddack 1.2, Castro 1.1, and Correa 1.0 so we traded most of the guys who we didn't develop. Of the 9 guys we still have that have WAR to date over 1, 7 were draftees, 1 traded for as a prospect, and only 1 traded for after establishing himself in Bigs. No free agents and really one one if we count the guys who were here but got traded away - Correa. What's kind of sad is when you add 10% to their current totals for the 10% of the season left, correct for partial season for Lopez, Matthews, Lewis, and Keaschall, and then apply the WAR scale, we don't have a lot going for us. The Fangraphs scale is 6.0 plus is elite, MVP-caliber talent, 4-6 All-Star caliber player, 2-4 good to above average, 0-2 below average to average. The MLB scale is 2 WAR - average full-time starter, 4 WAR decent, semi-star level player, 6 WAR, a true star level player, 8 WAR - a superstar, MVP caliber player. I used the Fangraphs scale because I have the Fangraphs numbers and don't know if the MLB calculation is different. Here's what you get: Buxton - 5.25 - All-Star level player. Ryan - 3.8-3.9 - All-Star level player or close. Lopez - @3.5-4 because missed so much with injury - All-Star level player or close. Keaschall - 4 plus projected over a full season. Probably #2 on the team. All-Star level if this is real. Jeffers - 2.1 - Solid regular. Wallner - 1.5 - 1.8 projected due to injury - average or slightly below average MLB player. Matthews - 2 -2.5 plus projected over a full season. Average to slightly above. Lewis - 1.8-2 plus projected due to injury over a full season. Average MLB player. That's it. No one else projects to 2 WAR or more. Austin Martin with 0.4 WAR in 109 ABs projects to around 2ish over a full season. Larnach has 515 PAs and has 0.4 WAR in really a full season, and Brooks Lee has 0.1 in 468 PAs, 80% or more of a full season. Sands and Topa are both over 60 innings, pretty much a full season for a reliever, and have WAR of 0.9 and 0.8 respectively. SWR is at 0.5 in 94 innings, and Festa is 0.3 in 53 innings, both project around 1 WAR. I know WAR isn't the end all and be all but I think it paints a pretty accurate and not a pretty picture for this team. In the field, Buxton is a star and Keaschall is a star in waiting if this is real. Jeffers is a solid regular. Wallner and Lewis are average or slightly below players. Martin could be a solid regular to above average if this year continues. On the pitching staff, Ryan and Lopez are stars or are close, Matthews is a solid regular if this year is real. Ober at 0.7 is below average, SWR and Festa are a little better than Ober, and there is nothing in the bullpen other than Sands. We need a lot.

Agreed. Does anyone know the stats on talent acquisition overall? I think it might vary team to team but I would guess that most teams outside of the big markets acquire most of their roster through the draft or acquiring prospects before they reach the Majors. I live in LA and you would expect that they are one of the highest FA based teams. Their current roster is roughly 60% guys that previously played for other MLB teams, 11 of whom are free agents signings who were successful at other teams or 42% of the roster. The other 18% were traded for after they had their MLB debuts or signed as minor league free agents after being released, depending on how you count the 2 guys from Japan (I counted them as MLB free agent signings). The MLB free agent signees are their best players so the WAR is likely higher. By contrast, Detroit's WAR is 85% from draftees or prospect acquisitions. That shows the contrast and suggests to me that good mid or smaller market teams are the result of developing draftees and/or trading for and developing prospects. That fits with the idea that the best free agents go to the highest revenue and thus highest paying teams. I don't have the full data set though and it would be interesting.

None of us know what is going to happen, but this is a possibility. The debt service on $425m (?) in debt is pretty significant cash flow drain. If in fact the new "limited partners" investment eliminates the debt, that should free up more cash flow for operations. There is at least a chance that the new investors actually are in it to be part of a winning experience, not just private equity people looking to maximize profit. We may know more when the investors names are released assuming the investment actually happens. The worst may happen, but we shouldn't just assume it will. By the way, I saw in an earlier comment that the 2023 playoff games were not sellouts. Is that right? How can that be? If this team cannot draw well enough to sell out playoff games in a 39,500 seat stadium there is something seriously wrong. I'm not aware of serious economic problems in the area, but maybe I'm uniformed, and I totally understand not supporting this year's team. Still, not drawing 2 million fans over 81 home dates for a good team in 2023 or a good for half the season team in 2024 is a real red flag. I'm sure it will be even worse this year, as it should be. Not sure what the problem is but it really hampers this team from investing. It also makes the players wonder if going somewhere else where they will be better supported is a better call (see Duran's comments about how much fun the atmosphere in Philly is). Don't get me wrong, I'm not necessarily blaming the fans when I see how well the Vikes are supported. Still, something is really wrong when you can't draw an average of 25,000 people a game and can't sell out playoff games.

Well put. I think Ryan and others want to be in a place where they can win. They would just as soon stay in MN; it's what they know, where they're known, and where they and their families are comfortable. But they don't want to stay if the team isn't going to try to get better. I don't think guys like Ryan, Jeffers and Ober will sign extensions unless they think the team will be competitive at least for the playoffs. That's the rub. When will this team be better? Are Keaschall and Martin for real? Will Wallner or Larnach take that next step forward to be a quality middle of the order bat? Will the FO be given the resources to get a 1B or rebuild the bullpen this off season? Lots of questions. I don't think the good players ae going to re-sign in MN without some answers.

This is really the issue. SWR can be a competent #5 starter. His problem is that he's competing with guys that have more upside and a strong possibility of being better. He's a comforting security blanket; he's not great, but he's not bad, so he's good to have around if the other, higher upside guys like Bradley, Matthews, Festa, Prielipp, Rojas, and Abel, either don't make it or take a couple of more years to make it. I really think that we need to convert a couple of pitchers from the above group to the bullpen for 2026. I would seriously think about putting Festa in the pen. His shoulder/body may not be able to handle starting and I think he could be the next Duran as a closer. I would put SWR there too as a 6th starter/ long man. Start the 2026 season with a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews and Bradley. That leaves enough guys for a strong AAA rotation from Abel, Prielipp (another whose physical issues may make him a late inning reliever), Morris, Rojas, John Klein, MacLeod, Raya, and CJ Culpepper. SWR is the next man up in case of a starter's injury or ineffectiveness. Add those 2 plus 1 or 2 Coulombe, Taylor Rogers, Phil Maton types to the 2 or 3 guys we have that should stay and it helps us fill out a decent bullpen, something we sure as hell don't have now.

I think he gets one more shot here on as MiLB deal with a bad team like Oakland, Colorado, or maybe Miami. A punch in the gut by being released may be what he needs to get humbled and get better. Probably not, though. His ceiling was always limited by his lack of speed and athleticism and lack of real power. Just wait though, he'll get a chance with a bad team, have a good month, and the chorus here will be that we let a "great player" get away and it's all because the Twins "can't develop anybody". Just like the Tampa boards are probably saying the same thing about Joe Ryan.

I think that Ryan's comments need to be looked at in the context of this dumpster fire of a season. Ryan is a competitor and he knows he would be in high demand to pitch for a contender. The next 2 seasons are his age 30 and 31 years so it's not like he's a fresh faced 25 year old with his whole career in front of him. He's in the prime of his career pitching for a mediocre team that just got measurably worse at the deadline. I'm not surprised he might want out. I suspect anyone any good on the Twins is at least wondering if the grass might be greener elsewhere. I think Ryan wants to pitch on a team where the games matter and the playoffs are a real possibility, if not a likelihood. That ain't your 2025 Minnesota Twins and probably isn't the 2026 version unless a lot of ifs pan out in the very near future. I want the team to keep him at least until the 2026 trade deadline if only to keep us competitive and because deadline trades tend to get you better prospects back, but I wouldn't be surprised if his agent pushes for a trade this off season. It's hard to get good players to want to stay on bad teams. That doesn't make Ryan a bad guy, It just makes him a competitive guy who wants to be in a position to succeed.

I think you're right about Martin's likley playing time, but I think his last 100 ABs if repeatable make him an above average starting OF. We don't know if he'll do that, but he's shown some real improvement this year. Let's not forget he has only 321 MLB Abs (365 PAs) and is hitting at .262/.336/.358 overall, .284/.382/.375 in 88 ABs (102 PAs) for 2025. That 2025 guy starts on 90% of MLB teams, and the overall stats are of a good 4th OF on a good team playing 3-4 days a week. Clemens is a nice story but you're absolutely right, not an MLB starter. He's a bench guy at best and only that if we think he's competent as a backup 2B, 1B and OF. Not good enough if he can only play 1B. We'll know everything we need to know about the team if we break camp with Clemens starting at 1B.

I agree with this take. Martin has hit .282/.378/.376, 116 wRC+, since returning to the Twins. That is NOT a below average MLB hitter or mediocrity as some have called him. That is a starting MLB player on any team in the Majors, usually hitting in the 1, 2, or 9 hole. I agree that his defense in LF and his baserunning have been spotty but I also think we need to give him credit for improvement in both areas, particularly in LF. Unlike a guy like Larnach or Wallner, Martin has the raw athleticism to get better in the OF and the speed to be a real threat on the bases. I don't understand why you guys just want to write him off as though he'll never improve. He might not improve, but there's at least a 50/50 chance he will get better, and I'll take an average to above average fielding, speedy LF who hits .270-.290 with a .360 plus OBP at the top of my lineup every day of the week. IF/when Emma and Jenkins are ready, they play RF with Wallner moving to 1B or DH, or Maritn slides to the 4th OF spot. I hope Martin's last 100 ABs are real. If they are, Martin is next year's leadoff hitter with Buxton 2, and Keashall 3 in the everyday lineup. If Wallner could just hit .240 plus and strike out 25-28% of the time (or less), now you have a LH #4 hitter to break up the righties and you can find a 5 and 6 hitter between Jeffers, Lewis, and a DH or 1B. Lee hits 8 and whoever is left hits 7 and 9. That lineup steals a lot of bases and moves to at least the middle of the pack in runs scored, which is a major improvement from this year. Add in a solid to very good starting rotation and you have a .500 team or slightly better team. You then have to find a solid bullpen and that is a long way from this bunch we have now. No question that's a lot of IFs to contending next year but half the fun of being a sports fan is imagining how those IFs can come together for your team. It's a lot easier to imagine when you have Lopez and Ryan to lead the rotation. I really hope that's the case in 2026.

At least they finally released Kriske and called up Ohl. Hatch started off well and it has just fallen off a cliff. I completely agree with you. I don’t see any reason to keep running the same losers out there. Use this month to try out new guys you’re unsure about like Fedko, Baker, and Lawyerson.

I have to admit I am cooling on Topa in the bullpen after these latest games. I also don't see Funderburk as a closer; I see him more as a middle to late inning guy whose leverage level depends on the number of LH hitters he would face. We need a closer from somewhere. I like Festa there and could see Sands in the role. It will be difficult and probably expensive to get one from outside so I think we need an internal option to step up into that role.

I've been wondering why Fedko isn't getting a callup to see where he is and FlyingFinn may have supplied the answer. I guess if we don't call him up and thus don't put him on the 40 man we have a chance of getting him by the Rule 5 draft. Still, I think that he should get a shot at being part of a 1B combination next season unless we sign a FA to play 1B. There ain't a lot out there other than Naylor and he may be out of our price range.

Guys, the starter who can survive pitching without high velocity these days is a rare bird indeed. Comparing velocity to the 70s, 80s, and 90s is a fool's errand; the average pitcher in that era would get eaten alive by today's better hitters. The Twins (and all other teams) aren't saying have high velocity and we don't care about command. You have to have both. In the 70s, an 88-90 MPH fastball and good command could get you a long MLB career. In the 2020s, that gets you a AAAA label at best. Look at Ober. At 92 MPH with elite command, he's an MLB mid rotation stater - barely. At 90 MPH he's got a 5.40 ERA and is in danger of losing his job if this continues in 2026. Today's hitters see 90 MPH fastballs as glorified batting practice. They are just better than they were 10-15 years ago, much less 30-50 years ago. David Festa at low 90s with his stuff probably never gets out of the minors. By getting more velocity, he has had a chance in the Majors and will get more chances. You guys are right, the higher velocity puts a much heavier strain on the arm, elbow and shoulder. It also gives guys a chance they otherwise wouldn't have. Festa's body may not be able to handle the higher velocity for 100 pitches. Most guys can't. The solution for him isn't to throw slower. He'll get killed. The solution may be to put him in the bullpen so he can throw at high velocity in 20-30 pitch stints, instead of 100 pitch stints. I see Festa as a high leverage bullpen arm for the same reasons Duran went to the bullpen.

I like the thoughts DocBauer. I tend to agree that Prielipp should be given more rope as a starter first before moving to the bullpen. Where I realy agree is that some of these guys should be tried in the MLB bullpen now, given that the rest of the is year's games don't really matter AND that a lot of the guys we now have in the Twins bullpen STINK and won't be around next year. Adams is already up, give him some high leverage shots. Get Ohl back up as a 1-2 inning guy. I'd like to see Lawyerson, Baker and/or MacLeod up in the bullpen. Any 40 man issues are simple to solve - release or waive Cabrera, Davis, and/or Kriske. Davis is an easy release candidate for sure. He has an 18.90 ERA and was just as bad in Colorado, with a 9.54 ERA in 61 MLB innings - how much more do we need to see to know he's isn't an MLB pitcher? Let's make these moves now to see for 2026. By the way, making the moves now might have the added advantage of helping the attitude of the current club so they can see at least the team is trying to get better now and for next year. They can't watch bullpen melt downs like the last 3 days for long before they all simply give up.

I think it's important to recognize that ballplayers have very short careers. The median MLB career length is 2.7 to 3.5 years, according to AI, with the average longer but skewed by a small subset of players that have very long careers so the median is the better measure. That's the MLB v career length, it doesn't include the 95% of ballplayers who try but never make the majors. Add to that the fact that Lewis has had two career altering and perhaps career threatening injuries and I can understand his concerns. It's not like he's guaranteed to make 750K plus for 5 years and then millions. He might make 750K plus for a couple of years, then be wandering the landscape looking for one year MLB or even less lucrative MiLB deals, or even out of baseball with no other skills to fall back on. These guys aren't set for life unless and until they get a long term guaranteed contract and most if not almost all of them never get that. Most of them don't have other skills to make a living. I also don't understand the complaining about his bonus amount or what he makes compared to the "average guy". Lewis makes more money that the average guy because his services create more wealth than the average guy. We are a capitalist society. He who creates more economic activity and wealth is worth more to our society. He does something none of us can do. Pro athletes make more money than most everybody else because they provide more economic value than most everybody else. In other words, they make more because they are worth more in economic terms. Lewis has one shot at real wealth from his unique talent over the next few years. It's understandable that he's worried about that. Having said all this, Lewis needs to keep those concerns to himself. He comes across kind of like the rich guy who complains about this taxes. Very few have sympathy for that guy.

I agree that things have changed in the sense that teams put guys in relief at the MiLB level intending to develop them into MLB bullpen pieces. I think the old days of only failed starters in the bullpen are gone. hey, we need basically 4-6 new bullpen pieces next year, and that's assuming Topa and Sands are two of the 8. Everyone else is now on a tryout with Funderburk looking like he could be part of the solution. I thought Hatch might be but he stunk last night. Still, he's had 4 very good appearances since coming over and 2 pretty bad ones so there may be something there. The rest? Adams might be something but the sooner we move away from Davis, Kriske, and Cabrera, the better off we will be. I'd move away immediately if not sooner from those 3 - release them and bring up Ohl, Baker, and Lawyerson. Tonkin is fine for now but he's already 35, has never been very good, and is on the downward slope. He probably isn't part of the 2026 solution. Let's see if the other guys are.