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Twins (SWR) v Jays (Lauer): 8/27, 6:07pm CT
LA Vikes Fan replied to Squirrel's topic in Archived Game Threads
That ball supposedly had a .660 expected batting average so I don't think you can fault Martin too much. Still, I agree he's not the greatest OF, which is weird for a guy who looks like a good athlete. I think we're seeing what Martin brings if he can do it consistently. 2 singles, 2 stolen bases. His highest and best use is as an on base machine. He's a long way from that now, but I think that's the plan. Unless he can find a way t have a .350 or better OBP, 4th OF is the ceiling. -
Twins (SWR) v Jays (Lauer): 8/27, 6:07pm CT
LA Vikes Fan replied to Squirrel's topic in Archived Game Threads
Hey, lay off the unemployed. What do you call a person happy on a Monday? unemployed. Wow, being laid off is terrible. I never thought I'd lose my job as a psychic. -
Twins (SWR) v Jays (Lauer): 8/27, 6:07pm CT
LA Vikes Fan replied to Squirrel's topic in Archived Game Threads
Wow, Varsho is freakin' good in CF. Is he looking for a backup job for next season? -
All sounds good on paper., What would be the price of trading for a guy like Rutschman? Assuming we want to trade from surplus, what younger starting pitching would work? Would SWR plus a AA guy like CJ Culpepper be enough (or too much)? Festa or Abel on his own? How about either Festa on his own for Rutschman or Abel plus CJ (not Kaelon) Culpeper. What do you think?
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I think we keep Lopez and Ryan unless Ryan can force his way out of town. Ober gets shopped, but not sure there's a big market or at least not enough to get us a bat unless we add a decent prospect. Assuming all 3 stay, I think next year's rotation is Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, and Bradley. I see Festa and SWR moving to the bullpen - SWR as a swing starter/long man with Hatch, Festa in a high leverage innings role, possibly as the closer. The AAA rotation in order of callup to the MLB to replace inured or ineffective starter (after moving SWR or Hatch to the rotation first) is Abel, Prielipp, Rojas, Andrew Morris, CJ Culpepper (up from AA). By the way, I think Hatch is forcing his way into the conversation. His 4 Twins appearances - (1) 4.IP, 0 ER, (2) 4.1 IP, 4 ER, (3) 5 IP, 1 ER, (4) 5 IP, 1 ER. Since joining the Twins he's had 1 start and 3 piggyback roles for a record of 2-0, 2.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP - 18.2 innings, 6 earned runs. Three strong appearances, one bad one. Let's not sleep on him. He's in the BP next year for sure already (unless he implodes), and he might get a look as a starter.
- 27 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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Just a nit. I think you have the all season stats, not the "since I got traded" stats. Since joining the Rangers, Coulombe is 1-1, with a 4.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, Varland is 0-0, 5.59, 1.59 WHIP, Jax is 0-1, 8.59, 1.64 WHIP, Stewart 0-1, 4.91. 2.18 WHIP and on the IL with a shoulder injury (his 35 innings a year limit was reached). All bad. Coulombe and Stewart more likely than not to be available in the off season for not being on a 40 man roster. Duran though is 0-1, 1.17 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 7 saves in 8 chances. Very good. So, of the 5 relievers we traded, 5 have pretty much sucked with their new clubs but Duran has been golden.
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This is an interesting thought experiment. 1B is a black hole. We NEED to find one internally from Wallner, Larnach, and Keaschall. All are less $$ than a free agent and all are frankly better hitters than a $5-$8m free agent. I put Larnach there and leave Keaschall at 2B, but I could see an argument to put Keaschall at 1B and someone from the Martin, Culpepper, and Eeles group at 2B. Castro coming back as a low cost 4 day a week UTl is intriguing but I didn't put that in. That's what he's good at and he has stunk since joining the Cubs with a .496 OPS so his market will not be as robust as we thought. Julien is gone, probably by off season release so he doesn't take up a 40 man spot. Same for Miranda. Here's where I think we are mid-season next year: 1B - Larnach (or Keaschall) 2B - Keaschall (or Culpepper) SS - Lee 3B - Lewis LF - Jenkins CF - Buxton RF - Fedko/Gabriel Gonzalez DH/OF - Wallner Bench - Clemens, Outman or Martin(need a backup CF), Culpepper, Cardenas or veteran back up C (could even be Vasquez again). Batting Order - Keaschall, Buxton, Wallner, Jeffers/Lewis, Lee, Lewis/Jeffers, Larnach, Fedko, Jenkins (or hit Jenkins 1 and move everyone else back 1). The 2023 Lewis hits 4th, the 2025 Lewis hits 6th or is gone for Culpepper. I'm hoping for the 2023 version to reappear. Emma would be great but he will be hurt. Gabriel Gonazalez may be ahead of Fedko, so one is in RF, the other in AAA.
- 117 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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I Looked to see what the "average" MLB numbers were and got this - .246/.324/.404 (.728) so you're right, Lee is a below average hitter overall right now. I do think we have to note that he is above average for the last 30 games in OBP and SLG and his average has been coming up recently. This coincides with him moving to his comfortable, preferred position at SS every day so that correlation may in fact be causation. I still have hope for Lee and his OAA over the last 25 games is a positive at SS. I think he's the every day SS next year. I went down the rabbit hole and looked at our guys who have been every day players this year and/or likely will or could be so next year absent a trade to see how the rank against average. It was interesting and changed my thinking a little bit. Above average in all categories - Buxton, Jeffers, Keashall (SSS). Above average in some, below in others - Wallner (good OBP,SLG,OPS, very bad BA). Average - Larnach almost exactly in everything - .243/.318/.417 (.725). Below average in pretty much everything - Clemens (Way below average in BA and OBP, above in SLG, below in OPS at .717), with Lewis, Martin, Julien, Outman, and of course Vasquez below in everything, sometimes way below. Leads me to two conclusions, one of which we all already knew, (1) Larnach isn't so bad and may need to stick around at 1B over Clemens or DH, and (2) there's lots of room for new guys.
- 117 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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No, Patzky was correct, you missed the point. That's my fault for not being more clear. The point is that after 150ish at bats we really know very little about what Alan Roden can or will be. He could be anwhere between Keirsey or an All Star. Let's just pump the brakes on an instant analysis and let him play so we can find out. By the way, in Trout's first 123 ABs he hit .220/.281/.390 (.671) with 6 HRs, so that is a little better than Roden who is .191/.261/.294 (.555) with 2 HRs in 136 ABs. Frankly, with a .671 OPS and no injury Roden would be hitting 5th on this Twins team.
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Finally some sanity from rdehering. Give Roden a chance for Chrissakes, He's all of what 150 MLB ABs, some of with a jammed thumb on which he has to have surgery. His MiLB track record and athleticism show exactly the type of player that this Board has been agitating for to replace Larnach (and/or Wallner). Look, none of us know if Roden will be the next Keirsey, Bader, Ozuna, or Trout. or somewhere in between. The good news is that his MiLB stats and profile suggest he could be an above average MLB regular. He should get a real shot next year to show what he can do based on his track record. Besides, who else we got?
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That was interesting. Looks like the Twins are near the middle in developing Hitters, probably slight above the mid-line. All of this just shows how steep the pyramid is for developing MLB players and how developing one hitting star changes the stats and the perception. The Twins have NOT developed that one middle of the order bat that helps everybody and I just don't see that guy on the roster unless 2023 Royce Lewis returns. By the way, why isn't Keaschall playing some 1B with Martin at 2B occasionally? Let's see if that works. Kody Clemens is a nice redemption story, but he is NOT the long-term answer at 1B and we got nobody at AAA. If Keaschall can play 1B (or LF) and Martin fails, now we have an opening for Culpepper or Eeles. I hate to break it you guys, but absent injury Lee is our SS through 2026 at least. I read that he's been above average in OAA since going to SS full time, and I can see that he's hitting much better. He's one of our few success stories in finding the right place to play somebody.
- 48 replies
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- royce lewis
- edouard julien
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Week in Review: From Bad to Worst
LA Vikes Fan replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I hear that quandary. Maybe the answer is you keep Ryan and Lopez and trade Ober along with a minor leaguer for a bat. Particularly a C or 1B unless Keaschall is moving to 1B.- 108 replies
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- taj bradley
- mick abel
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I think this constitutes a small shake up of the core with the rest coming in the offseason. Larnach is gone in the off season, IMHO. Miranda does not fit in the long term plans. They are trying to see if Julien or Outman can be the guy he was in 2023 and, if they can't, their a bench player or gone. The new "core" is Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Buxton, and Wallner, with Clemens a possibility and Outman maybe sticking around in a bench role. They need a couple more guys and 1B and LF are open, the 2 easiest spots to fill. They're looking for relief pitchers and #4/5 starters. There's tryout camp going, with Matthews and Hatch looking like pieces so far. Expect a tryout camp through September for the rest of the spots. This is your chance if you're Outman, Martin, Clemens, Julien, SWR, Abel, Bradley, Festa, and Ohl. I fully expect that the Opening day 26 man roster in 2026 will have at least 10-12 different faces than the Opening Day 26 man roster in 2025.
- 48 replies
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- royce lewis
- edouard julien
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I really like the idea of moving one of the young starters into a short relief/closer bullpen role and I think Festa is the best choice. I honestly don’t think the plan is to trade Ryan or Lopez this off-season. The Twins will have at least 12 and as many as 15 minimum salary guys next year on the team. You can run a $100 million payroll easily without trading either of those two guys and have $10-$15 million left over for a free agent or two. More if you move Larnach.. Festa makes perfect sense as a closer if he can handle the role mentally. He’s got the high octane fast ball and a good secondary pitch, but it doesn’t have a deep arsenal. He’s also had shoulder issues. I think he could thrive as the closer and I hope the team takes some opportunities in September to try him in that role. I think the current plans for the rotation next year is López, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, with a competition for that fifth spot between Bradley, SWR, and Abel. The two who don’t make it then go to AAA with Rojas and Prielipp and you have a pretty strong AAA rotation to pick from when inevitable injuries hit. You then have Topa, Sands, Festa, and Funderburk in the bullpen. Hatch has really shown well and can also serve as your sixth starter/piggyback for SWR guy. I agree with top gun that you then spend five or $6 million on a decent reliever and the bullpen starts to look somewhat competitive.
- 24 replies
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- david festa
- griffin jax
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That’s also my thinking on SWR. I think we’ve seen enough to know that it is unlikely he is going to be a starting pitcher that can go more than two times through the lineup on a regular basis. That means he slots in as the number four or number five in a quality rotation. I think a quality late ending reliever has more value than your number five starter, so I think it might be worth seeing if SWR can be that late in relief weapon. We also now have some significant starting pitching depth so it would be a good time to give this a try. All this goes out the window of course if we trade our established starting pitching. I hope we don’t.
- 49 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- alan roden
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By the way, I also agree with you on Alan Roden. Way too early to consider giving up on him and his MiLB track record is stellar. I think people want to put him down because they see him as the return for Varland, the beloved successful local boy. I don’t think a lot of posters here are giving Roden a real chance. And, by the way, the return for Varland is Rojas, a 21 year-old left-handed starter just moved up to AAA. Roden and France were the additions to even out value. Toronto got the best player out of the four and the worst, we got numbers two and three with the potential upside that one of those two will be as good as or better than Varland. Frankly, it was kind of a classic baseball value trade for both teams given that Toronto is a contender and we are not. I still wouldn’t have given up Varland myself, I would’ve made him the closer, but I think the idea that we somehow got the wrong end of the trade is just not correct from a baseball perspective.
- 49 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- alan roden
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I think you’re probably right on the three young starters if Abel and Bradley show something this year because then we will have a surplus to trade from. I personally like Mathews in the rotation; I think he has the highest upside of the three. I think between him and Festa one is in the rotation and the other one should get the first audition as a closer. I really think we should think about SWR as a late inning relief arm. He strikes me as a guy whose fastball isn’t good enough to be a long-term starter but who’s fastball could tick up 2 or 3 mph in the bullpen and become a real weapon ala Jax.
- 49 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- alan roden
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Abel to start today. Urena DFA. Abel’s performance the rest of the way could have a lot to do with what happens to SWA.
- 49 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- alan roden
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It al depends on the amount of the investment and the deal. The guys you mentioned are celebrity investors with small stakes and are typically just "names" put in groups to get approval. I've done and litigated a lot of deals with minority investors and you can do anything you want. The reason that it might be different here is that the new investors may be better business people, fanboys replacing family members who don't care, or maybe they don't want to be associated with a loser, or at least not with a non-competitive loser. On the other hand, these may be hard money people who are interested in cutting payroll to the bone now, making any money they can next year, participating in a 2027 lock out, and then cashing out in 2028 when there's a new CBA and new TV deals that may improve the value of the franchise. Or it could be anywhere in between. Or maybe Joe wants to run a 120m payroll but couldn't with the debt service and now can without it. The point is that none of us know how the new investors will change the franchise direction, if they change it at all. You assume the worst without knowing, although admittedly not without any any basis given what we just saw at the deadline. You may be right. Or we may see something different. None of us know. The one thig I do think we "know" is that the core we had was going nowhere fast so in some senses there's nowhere to go but up.
- 137 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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Yeah, I think you and I are really answering different questions - should we trade Lopez and Ryan vs. will we trade Lopez and/or Ryan. I don't think we should trade either and particularly not for prospects. To me, that just not a smart way to build the team. At this point though, there may be other financial interests of Pohlad that trump baseball. It will be interesting to see if the identity of and power of the new investors makes a difference. think you're right about Joe Pohlad. I 'm just hoping that the new investors are smarter and have enough clout/power to do things a better way.
- 137 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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