LA Vikes Fan

My bad, forgot Ober is back. Its Ryan, Prielipp, Ober, Bradley against Cleveland and Matthews, Ryan and Prileipp against the As.

I know Paredes' analytics aren't great but everything I see him I thank "this guy can really pitch". He absolutely stays over Adams when Sands comes back. By the way, if Paredes is pitching today, who's starting on Tuesday in Cleveland?

I d could definitely see Roden as apart of a package traded for a pitcher or one for one traded for an older reliever or starter on an expiring contract from a non-contender. I think that kind of trade is going to happen before the deadline. I expect Roden, Emma, Mendez, or GG to be going out. Emma gets us the best return on his own, but Roden still might have value as part of a package to a team like the Angels, Rockies, or Giants who could put him in the OF for the rest of the season and let him develop.

Or trade him as the headliner in a package for a younger controllable starting pitcher like Soriano or Detmers and let the Angels find that out.

You may be right. I am starting to come around to the idea of trading a prospect for Robbie Ray of the Giants or Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays. Both are expensive, but they’re on expiring contracts so it’s only for this year. Helps the rotation, moves Paredes, and eventually Prielipp to the bullpen so it helps the bullpen too.

I have to be honest, I don't really get this article. A paraphrase of the title of this post is "the hitters that got the Twins here are paradoxically, the ones now getting the way." In the way of what, or who, exactly? The only people hitting in AAA well enough to get a MLB tryout this season are Kyler Fedko, who failed and looked overmatched while doing so, Alan Roden, who is getting a shot now, and Kaelene Culpepper, who pulled a butt muscle and is injured. Culpepper deserves a shot this year and should get one as soon as he is healthy and back in the swing of things, most likely at the expense of Tristan Gray. If Roden hits his playing time will go up and Martin will be reduced to the back end of the bench. That's it. There is nobody else that our current roster is standing in the way of a player who has performed such at AAA that they have earned a shot. There is absolutely no reason or need to trade Larnach, Bell, or for that matter anyone else just to give some highly deserving candidate that is unfairly blocked a chance at MLB success. We don't have those guys, at least not yet. All of our candidates other than those three are next season or the season after type prospects. Evaluating any trade should be about value back and forth given we don't have anybody knocking at the door being unfairly denied entry. Jeffers is the obvious trade candidate because his contract expires at the end of year but beyond that, there isn't any reason to trade the veterans we have. Conversely, we have a few pretty good prospects who could be knocking at the door in a year or two for whom another organization might be willing to give us a decent reliever or rental starting pitcher. And we have a surplus of those prospects in the OF. Seems to me what we should be looking at is trying to trade from our surplus for a player that will help us this year and next while we wait for the year or two away guys to get here, not trading veterans or somebody else's prospects who are a year or two away.

Also, the Padres gave up Leo De Vries or Miller, plus some pitching prospects. I wonder if they would have any interest in trading Miller to the Twins for Culpeper and thus get something close to the young shortstop they traded away back in the organization. Before I get a bunch of snarky replies, Mason Miller is in his first year of arbitration and has a $4 million salary. He has three more arbitration years left and isn't a free agent until 2030. That's 3.5 years of one of best closers in the game at an affordable price. Seems like that's worth Culpeper plus, especially since we have Marek Houston coming up behind him. Maybe we do some kind of package deal where they get needed immediate hitting help like Larnach plus Culpeper and maybe a AA guy, and we get Miller plus a lower level yet intriguing prospect. Just something to think about . . .

The guys I really like are the Angels pitchers Soriano, Detmers, Bachman, and even Yates, Luke Weaver of the Mets, or either Gausman of Toronto or Robbie Ray of the Giants if we want a rental for a lesser prospect. I think we should get who we can on a trade that makes sense, starter or reliever. if we want to add a starter we can then improve the bullpen by moving Prielipp and Paredes from the rotation to the bullpen. Obviously nothing prevents us from doing both. I also like the idea of picking up Littell. I have read that Hunter Greene may be available, particularly with the Reds making a strong financial commitment to Chase Burns. You never know about these things though. "National insiders" tell you lots of guys are available that the teams have no intention of trading and then later stated they were traded because they couldn't even get a strong enough offer. I think they just have to get some headlines and some eyeballs on the articles. If Greene was available, however, I would certainly consider trading any prospect other than Jenkins for him and would consider trading two or three prospects, including one in the top 10 or even top five, and one in the 10 – 20 range. I know there's injury risk but He's worth it.

Thanks for the information on the BABIP for both Kreidler and Gray. That comports with the eye test that I get from watching the games; Kriedler seems like he’s hitting the ball well but a lot of well hit ground balls are finding gloves, and he isn’t elevating the ball the way he did earlier, while Gray is striking out a lot, hitting with a lot of soft contact, but is elevating the ball more when he does make hard contact. Just looking at the way they look at the plate lately, one has a lot more confidence that Kreidler might get a hit, and you definitely want him up over Gray with men on base. It will be interesting to see how those two are used coming out of the break. I could see them giving Gray the start tonight against a right handed pitcher, with Kreidler starting the next two games against the left-handers. The Cleveland series should give us a clear review of who Shelton wants to play more. I would hope Kreidler would start three of those four games.

I checked and you're closer to right. I thought it was much more Kriedler but its been more of a 60/40 or even 55/45 Kriedler over Gray platoon over the last 6-7 weeks. I think that's a mistake. Gray can't field the position and now isn't hitting. Kriedler's bat has cooled off (a lot), but he really can field the position. He should be the everyday SS unless his bat completely craters for an extended period.

The Dodgers have faced this issue many times with guys coming back from injury or just coming up. Their practice has been to keep the pitcher in the rotation for about 100-110 innings and then move him to the bullpen for his last 20-30 innings, usually in a high leverage 1 inning at a time role. They did it with Ohtani, Sasaki, Sheehan, Maeda, Urias, Stripling, Wood, Buhler, all guys just coming up or coming off of injuries. Its worked pretty well and helped fill out the bullpen in the stretch run and playoffs. I think the move is to give Prielipp 2-4 more starts and then move him to the bullpen in a high leverage role. That does hinge on Ryan, Bradley, Ober, Matthews, and Paredes still being available as starters or, even better, trading prospects for a starter. That's something we should consider any way to help shore up the bullpen, get more starters and move some we have to the pen. I'd like to see either a trade of a good prospect or two for a younger starter like Soriano or Detmers, or a trade of a decent but more marginal prospect for a rental like Robbie Ray or Kevin Gausman. Move Prielipp and Paredes to the bullpen in place of Adams and either Go or Funderburk and you've helped the bullpen without damaging and maybe even improving the rotation. Even a trade for say a Robbie Ray type leaves a rotation of Ryan, Bradley, Ober, Ray and Matthews, and a bullpen of Gomez, Morris, Rogers, Nance, Sands, Prielipp, Parades, and either Go or Funderburk. Still not a top 10 bullpen but probably in the top half and a major improvement from where we were. All it takes is a pitching injury or two and this wouldn't work too well but it's a promising path and it does help solve the Prielipp conundrum. Besides, a pitching injury or two is going to torpedo any pitching plan. Something to think about if things come together right.

This. Sitting Lewis for Caratini really doesn’t make a lot of sense. Caratini can get a couple days a week behind the plate and a day or two at first base. That’s plenty of playing time for him. The lineup is better with Lewis in it. I frankly think the Twins success in the second half scoring runs in dependent really on about three guys and Lewis is one of them. The other two suggestions though were right on. Paredes absolutely should stay in the bullpen. I would trade out Adams rather than Go. Use Paredes as a Long man when you can to keep him a little stretched out in case he needs to make a spot start or two. That’s his best and highest use anyway, three or four innings at a time. Kriedler has to be the everyday shortstop until either Culpepper or Houston is ready, or his bat completely falls off the table. He’s the starting shortstop if he can hit over .200. Shortstop is the one position where defense trumps offense. I think it is no coincidence that the team has played substantially better baseball since he became the everyday shortstop because the defense is so much better.

Is this from baseball trade values? If you look at that site, they say that while Tolle has extra surplus value, this Is not a trade that would ever happen in real life because of the realities of trading an established Frontline starter for a guy who essentially still a prospect. Boston would have to add pieces, potentially top 100 prospect pieces to make this an even trade in their view. I’m curious because everything I read says that Boston would have to add significant pieces to Tolle to get Ryan. Maybe I’m looking in the wrong place. What is your source?

Hard Pass. That trade substantially favors the Red Sox. Tolle might someday be what Ryan is now but he isn't that yet and nothing is guaranteed. To even that out, Boston would either have to include a proven MLB hitter like Abreu or Rafaela, or a young rising pitcher like Early, plus a prospect. A package deal both ways like Tolle, Abreu and Joshtnyxson Garcia or Gabriel Arias for Ryan and a Twins prospect in the 15-30 range could work. Substitute Raffaela for Abreu and remove the Twins prospect going back to Boston might also work. But Tolle alone for Ryan, not something the Twins should even consider.

You're right, but they did. Bitching about it now ain't going to change that. Hey, we did get some good prospects in return. I have an idea, why don't we trade some of these great prospects we have for good relievers with some controllable years left and reverse what we did last year? A lot people seem to love to hate last year so let's do the opposite this year. There's guys like that out there who are rumored to be available. Let's trade some of our prospects not named Jenkins or Culpepper for guys like Soriano, Detmer, or Sam Bachman of the Angels, Mason Miller, Bradgley Rodriguez, or Jhony Brito of the Padres, Luke Weaver of the Mets, Daniel Lynch, Lucas Erceg, or Alex Lange of the Royals, Jeff Hoffman of the Blue Jays, Trevor Rogers or Shane Baz of the Orioles, or Hunter Greene or Nick Lodolo of the Reds. I'm sure there are more maybe even better guys that could be had for some of the talent we have in the minors. Let's do it.

Just one addition to my rant above. What we should be doing is looking to TRADE prospects for guys that can help us now and in the next year or two, not trade the guys we have that can help us now and in the next year or two for more prospects. We got prospects. We don't need more prospects. What we need is a few more better MLB players. Getting more prospects doesn't satisfy that need, at least in the short term and probably not in the medium-term as the returns at the deadline tend to be guys at the AA level or lower. I don't think Jeffers is going to get us multiple AAA players ready to join a big league club. I hope the FO is on the phone trying to make deals for guys that have multiple years of control remaining, at least 1.5 This would be guys like Soriano, Detmer, and Bachman of the Angels, Mason Miller, Bradgley Rodriguez, or Jhony Brito of the Padres, Luke Weaver of the Mets, Daniel Lynch, Lucas Erceg, or Alex Lange of the Royals, Jeff Hoffman of the Blue Jays, Trevor Rogers or Shane Baz of the Orioles, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, or even Spencer Steer of the Reds. I think every prospect we have should be available for the right deal except for Jenkins and Culpepper. We can replace those prospects with the prospects we get when we trade Jeffers.

Okay, I will be outlier; the lone voice calling in the wilderness. Cody is absolutely right. Trading Jeffers is the only one that makes sense, the only one where we have a replacement in-house AND we might get a return that could potentially help us in the short to medium term. Trading Ryan is waving the white flag on 2026 and probably 2027. All you get when you trade at the deadline is prospects to replenish your farm system, untested prospects at that, only a select few of which can provide you short term help at the MLB level. We just did that last year. We do not need to do it again and I am firmly convinced that evidence shows that we can get just as much for Ryan in the off-season as we can at this year's trade deadline. We might even be able to get more since you can pick up actual MLB talent in the off-season and what do you get at the deadline? Prospects. The looming lockout may compress the off season trading season but it won't eliminate it. The looming deadline is a red herring that really has very little to do with this decision. Let's not over-think this. Trade Bell and Larnach? Sure, if you can get a late inning reliever, an MLB experienced or ready pitcher that can step in to the rotation as at least the #3 starter, or a smooth fielding, good hitting shortstop. Can you get that for either or even both together? Not a chance. Trade one or both of them to open up ABs for someone at the AAA level who may or may not eventually be as good and certainly is not going to be anywhere near as good in 2026 or 2027? Why? Because fans are thirsting to see the AAA guys? Don't think so. Because we need to once again reset the core and play for 2028 and beyond? C'mon now, we're better than that. We don't have to tear everything down and rebuild again. Those two players are worth more to us than they are to anyone else and they provide us with the real value. Cody is right, they provide more value to the Twins on the team than they can generate in a trade. Makes very little sense to trade them. Jeffers is the guy to trade. I'd love to see them re-sign Jeffers and trade Caratini or Jackson, but the chances of that have to be less than 25-30%. I agree that it makes more sense to trade him and get value then lose him for nothing. Still, that value probably will be prospects, not major leaguers, prospects. Again with the prospects. Maybe we can get prospects that actually help us next year but even that might be a pipe dream. Maybe I'm unique or it's because I live in California and can't go to Saints games, but I'm getting a little tired of always playing for the future and always trading veterans for, dare I say it, prospects. No one cares how good the St. Paul Saints are, at least I don't. Restocking that team does very little for me unless the players on it can come up and help the MLB team. This year is strange. Nobody is any good or at least hasn't been so far so an average team that gets a couple additions and some luck could be an above average team that actually has a shot to make the playoffs and win a series or even two. Once in, who knows maybe we're that team that wins a series or even two. Teams in any sport don't come from nowhere to the playoffs as seasoned, championship contenders. Teams typically have to make the playoffs for a year or two and get bounced out before they have the experience and know what it takes to actually get to a championship. We might actually have a chance to get to the playoffs and start the process this year. I say we try to do that instead of dreaming about how all of these prospects are going to come up, immediately make the All-Star team, and turn us into an instant championship contender. Just my two cents.

He also still strikes out way too much to be valuable, even in a DH role. In 2026 he struck out 53 times in 135 PAs, 120 ABs. That's a rate of 39.3% of his PAs, and 44.1% of his ABs ended in strikeouts. He only drew 10 walks in those 135 PA, for a not horrible 7.4% walk rate, but that gives him a 5.3 to 1 K/BB ratio, which is horrible. His SO rate in AAA is down to 27.8% and his K/BB is 49/17, still bad but not quite as alarming. The general rule of thumb that I have read is you should take someone's AAA strikeout rate and add 5-7% to get their likely MLB strikeout rate. That would mean an "improvement" to a 33-35% SO rate, still not in the acceptable range. I would like to see Wallner get another MLB shot. At this point though, I don't think he'll have shot on a good or even an average team. He'll need to go to a bottom feeder to get enough playing time to show improvement. Kind of the same journey Brent Rooker went through. Unfortunately, Wallner is already 28 so it's hard to see even a bad team like the Angels giving him a lot of playing time. I would love to see him included in a prospect package traded for pitching from a bad team so he gets that chance. I wouldn't trade him to a team like the Astros just in case he has one of his hot streaks while we're competing with them for a playoff spot. He won't add value or get us a better player, but I'd like to do right by the guy to make sure he gets every shot to make it. I doubt that he will get another shot with Twins because I think they've concluded that he can't help us. I could be proven wrong.

I hear that and think it's a good take, probably the right one. We play 10 games in a row starting Friday, 3 in Chicago against the Cubs, 4 in Cleveland, and 3 home games against the As. That's 3 road games against a good team, 4 roadies against a similarly situated team, and 3 home games against a fading, not very good team. That gets us to July 27, a week before the deadline, and 107 games, one short of exactly 2/3 of the schedule. We go 7-3 or better in those 10 games, keep Ryan and buy, buy, buy. We go 3-7 or worse, start making calls and see if a team will knock our socks with an offer. In the more likely event we go somewhere between 6-4 and 4-6 (I would actually predict we go 5-5; 1-2 v. Chi, 2-2 vs. Cleve, 2-1 vs. Oak), then I fall back to my position of keeping Ryan through 2026, trading him in the off season if we get a really big offer, and if not, trading him at the 2027 deadline unless we think we're contending for a championship.

I tend to agree that the offense will regress and revert to the mean (I think it's already starting for some guys) but I do think there is one major wild card on that - what will we get in the second half from Lewis, Bell and Keaschall? The Twins carried Lewis, Bell, and Keaschall through May but they all have really started to hit like we'd hoped in the last month. Over the last 30 games, Lewis is hitting .274/.333/.521 (.854), Bell .297/.355/.526 (.881) and Keaschall .303/.418/.449 (.867). That is a quality 4-5-6 in any lineup. Add in continued performance by Buxton, Larnach, Lee, and Clemens (and maybe Jeffers if not traded) and that's a very potent lineup. Frankly, if Jeffers stays I would put up those 8 guys (with the Larnach spot a Larnach/Martin platoon) against pretty much any lineup except the Dodgers. I think there's a least a 50/50 chance that those 3 will continue to hit. If that happens we no longer have to rely on outlying performance by guys like Kriedler and Gray, can play the best fielding SS (Kriedler) to improve the defense, and the whole outlook improves. I hope we trade prospects for pitching but that's not the real key to the second half - it's continuing to score runs at a high level. I think that's dependent on Lewis, Bell, and Keaschall unless we get really lucky and someone come up from AAA and knock our socks off. Those three are a major key to the second half. That, and not having any significant injuries to the 6-7 pitchers that are really carrying the staff.

Keaton Winn is an intriguing target. I don't know a lot about him, but he looks and sounds like exactly what we should be looking to acquire – a young, high upside arm with multiple years of remaining control. He is in the kind of guy for whom you would give up a two prospect package headlined by a higher end prospect outside of your top 10-12 with another in the back part of the top 30 or below. A similar value that might be available is Sam Bachman of the Angels. His statistics aren't quite as good as Winn this year but he has a 94 – 97 mph fastball that can get over 100 mph, a plus plus slider rated at 70 on the 20 – 80 scale, and an "improving" changeup. 2027 is his first arbitration year and he's not a free agent until 2030. I would love to see the Twins pick up Bachman, particularly as part of a package with Soriano or Detmers. I would be willing to part with a prospect package headlined by a top 10 prospect not named Jenkins or Culpepper and including two more in the back half of the top 30 for that kind of package in return.

There is a lot that has been written about the idea that there are two types of people, some who prioritize the risk of loss, and some who prioritize the possibility of gain. You can see those two types of people in these comments. Some people emphasize the possibility of injury, the chance that the 2027 season may be wiped out or shortened by a lockout/strike, and a hope that the return will be higher at the 2026 deadline than in the off-season. Some commenters emphasize the possibility of a playoff berth and/or playoff push this year, the chance he might sign an extension in the off-season, or having him here to show that "new" ownership is serious about change and improve attendance. None of these attitudes is wrong, they are just different. There is no answer that is "smarter" than the other, or more "serious" than the other, they just reflect competing priorities, competing assumptions about the future, and most importantly, the priority dichotomy between the risk of loss and the possibility of reward. Cody is right, there is no right or wrong answer here. I'm a pragmatist by nature and an optimist by attitude. My pragmatic half says that the likely return for Ryan in the off-season will not be materially different than the likely return at the deadline and that this year may present an unusual opportunity to get into the playoffs or even win the division with 83 to 86 wins. My optimistic side says that Ryan is unlikely to get injured in a way that would impact his off-season trade value, that he might be worth more in the offseason since we can get MLB talent then rather than just prospects (which I much prefer), that the Twins recent play will continue after the break, and that they can get to that 83 to 86 win threshold that will get them into the playoffs either as a division winner or a Wild Card. All of this leads me to choose option numbers 2 or 3. I would keep Ryan this year for sure and try to sign him in the off-season by making a market value or close to market value offer. If you can't re-sign him I would trade him in the off-season if we can get a huge return or wait until the 2027 deadline to decide whether to trade him. If you're not contending at the 2027 deadline, trade away. If you are, it might be worth the excitement keep him around and take the risk that you lose him for draft compensation. I am willing to accept the risk of injury or a lesser return to get the possibility of playoff contention this year and next and a new attitude for the team. So for me, NOT trading Ryan at the 2026 deadline is a no-brainer because to me the potential upside is substantially higher than the potential risk of loss. This is a much tougher decision in the 2027 off-season, and it's kind of a no-brainer that you have to trade him no later than the 2027 deadline unless the team is truly contending for a championship in 2027. So that's what I would do. I would even go so far as to have management stand up and say "We are not trading Joe Ryan at 2026 trade deadline. We hope that he remains Twin for the rest of his career and are committed to having meaningful negotiations this off-season with a market value contract offer." That's what I would do and by the way, I think that is the right thing to do for the team in the short term and in the long term because of the attitude it signals for a team badly in need of a re-set.

Keaschall started out poorly but he is .303/.418/.449 (.867) over his last 30 games, .293/.380/.440 (.820) over his last 150 ABs. He also is playing pretty well learning the OF. I would say he’s been better than disappointing since the slow start. The underlying metrics aren’t great but they weren’t last year either. I think he is what we thought he was.

I agree that the roster construction is poor although I'd argue its improving. Guys can play 145 plus games a year, and they do it by taking a "half day off" every now and then by DHing. Bell can't play in the field if Lewis is the DH so something has to give. If the question is who would be the best type of 13th player, I might agree with you. I think the real question is who among the guys we have would be the best 13th player. In that light, I could see Jackson being as good a choice as anyone else we have. You and I probably remember when it was "normal" for a MLB starter to play 150 plus games a year. That just doesn't happen as much any more. Guys go on the IL more often for more minor things so they can go all out when they play. Mangers play more matchups. Probably the biggest thing though, is they can't take drugs any more. Back in the day there was a jar of Greenies in every clubhouse and guys feeling tired took one or 3. Some guys took them every day. MLB banned the use of amphetamines in 2006 and that makes it a lot harder to play and a lot harder to focus in the July, August, and September heat every day. Carlos Correa even once commented when asked why he wasn't playing 160 games a year that now the most you can take is some Vitamin E instead of uppers, which is not really the same. I suspect there is a lot of Adderall or Ritalin being taken for ADD or ADHD diagnoses - some legit, some maybe not so legit - because those drugs really help with focus and energy. Bottom line, its a lot harder to play 160 games a year if you can't get some pharmaceutical help than it is if you can.

Two thoughts. First, nobody can or really should play every day. There will be days when Lewis and/or Bell will sit. Playing both Jeffers and Caratini on those days makes the lineup work. I'd be happy with a truly defensive/SB demon who can be used every day as the 13th man. Do we have that guy? Ben Ross maybe? It's not worth giving up any value for but having that guy on the roster and going with 2 catchers works for me. I just don't don't d know if we have that guy.