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With the Twins planning to cut their payroll for 2024, the team won't be able to spend $11 million on a player of Gallo's skillset. Could 24-year-old power-hitting Yunior Severino be a cheaper and more productive replacement? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Headlined by rookies Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner, the Minnesota Twins just underwent one of the most exponential youth movements in franchise history. These young players, mixed with stars like Carlos Correa and Pablo López, have seemingly ushered the Twins into a new era of baseball, one free of the burden that was the ever-looming Sisyphean 18-game playoff losing streak. Unfortunately, the sense of renewal and optimism that has reigned over Twins Territory since defeating the Toronto Blue Jays on October 4th has spiraled into yet another Pohlad-induced angst, as it was shared that the team is expected to undergo payroll cuts heading into the 2024 season. Expensive veteran contributors like Sonny Gray ($13.3 million), Joey Gallo ($11 million), Michael A. Taylor ($4.6 million), and Donovan Solano ($2.1 million) are likely to depart from the Twins this offseason. Instead of replacing them with similarly priced veterans through trade or the free agent market, the front office, hindered by payroll constraints, may opt for inexpensive internal options. While we are in the early stages of the offseason and have yet to learn what the front office's plans are to replace these veteran players' production for the upcoming 2024 season, a handful of young internal candidates may be called upon. Although replacing the production of more key contributors like Gray, Taylor, and Solano will be difficult, a likely candidate to replace Gallo's production has already emerged in 24-year-old power-hitting utility player Yunior Severino. Like Gallo, it is vital to emphasize power when discussing Severino, as he finished the 2023 season tied with Astros prospect Shay Whitcomb for the most home runs in Minor League Baseball with 35. Severino accomplished this feat by hitting 24 home runs with the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge and 11 home runs with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints after being promoted on August 3rd. Beyond his immense power, Severino possesses a versatile defensive profile similar to the one Gallo provided in 2023. During his time between Double-A Wichita and Triple-A St. Paul, Severino played 184 2/3 innings at second base, 556 1/3 at third base, 125 1/3 at first base, and was the designated hitter for 20 games. To put this into perspective, Gallo played 315 innings in left field, 46 1/3 innings in centerfield, 53 innings in right field, and 322 innings at first base, and was the designated hitter for one game during the 2023 regular season. Severino isn't a viable defensive Major League outfielder, so the Twins will need to look elsewhere to cover the 414 1/3 outfield innings Gallo provided. Regardless, Severino could easily find himself replacing the 322 innings Gallo provided at first, if not more, while serving as at least an emergency option at third. In theory, Severino, a switch-hitter, could increase his value and perception of flexibility more than Gallo, who hits exclusively left-handed, ever could. Gallo often found himself part of left-handed heavy platoon employments whenever the Twins would face a right-handed starting pitcher. Typically, switch-hitters like Severino are platoon-proof, but earning that distinction depends on whether the respective player can adequately hit pitchers of both handedness. Here are Severino's splits in Double-A and Triple-A during the 2023 season: Double-A Wichita Wind Surge Versus Left-Handed Pitching - .290/.355/.551 (.906) - 76 PA, 20 hits, three doubles, five home runs, five walks, 27 strikeouts Versus Right-Handed Pitching - .287/.368/.562 (.930) - 299 PA, 76 hits, 12 doubles, 19 home runs, 31 walks, 90 strikeouts Triple-A St. Paul Saints Versus Left-Handed Pitching - .286/.400/.429 (.829) - 25 PA, six hits, zero doubles, one home run, four walks, eight strikeouts Versus Right-Handed Pitching - .223/.305/.527 (.832) - 128 PA, 25 hits, two doubles, ten home runs, 11 walks, 48 strikeouts Despite a fairly significant drop-off in performance when facing right-handed pitching between Double and Triple-A, Severino still handled them exceptionally well, hitting 29 of his 35 home runs while generating a .881 OPS in 427 plate appearances against them. Severino manufactured incredible offensive numbers at both levels, which is why the Twins elected to add him to their 40-man roster to protect him from MiLB free agency and the Rule 5 Draft. If Severino hadn't been added to the 40-man roster, it is near-guarantee that a team would have selected him in the Rule 5 Draft as he is an MLB-caliber player. With Severino on the Twins' 40-man roster for the upcoming season, he will inevitably make his Major League debut in 2024. And with payroll cuts playing a prominent role in the Twins' decision-making process this season, it isn't far-fetched to expect Severino to be a key contributor for the Twins in 2024. Whether Severino can hit for power more efficiently than the current version of Gallo, who seemingly became an automatic strikeout toward the end of his tenure with the Twins, is yet to be determined. Regardless, it is reasonable to expect Severino to be an improvement. The Twins front office places a premium on power when analyzing which players to add and subtract from the 26-man roster, which is Severino's greatest strength. Severino did possess a roughly 33.9% K% to 9.7% BB% between Double and Triple-A, which is concerning but, at the same time, feasible. As long as Severino keeps his K% around 33.9% and does not skyrocket to the mid-40s, where Gallo lived most of the 2023 season, it is reasonable to think Severino could provide an upgrade for an AL Central Title-pursuing team. Assuming Severino's strikeout rate hovers around the lower 30s while effectively hitting for power from both sides of the plate, there is a significant chance he can put more than 0.7 fWAR, which Gallo generated during the 2023 season. Severino, being five years younger and roughly $10 million cheaper than Gallo, presents a unique opportunity for the Twins to immediately improve in a hyperspecific area of roster construction while saving an immense amount of money, which is the Pohlad family and, in turn, front office's main goal this offseason. With the Twins set to make relatively drastic payroll cuts this upcoming offseason, they will need to rely more on their young internal options than in past seasons. Though this is a daunting proposition, it could also be a silver lining, and the Twins could end up unearthing a viable power-hitting corner infielder who could provide more value than the $11 million risk they took in Gallo in 2023. Should the Twins put their faith in Severino to replace Gallo's production in 2024? Is giving him the opportunity too risky? Comment below. View full article

Matt Wallner had a frustrating postseason debut in 2023, and many fans were rightfully disappointed. It’s worth noting that despite a poor stretch of five games, Wallner should have established himself as an exciting part of the 2024 lineup. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Matt Wallner is a great story, being one of several native Minnesotans on the Twins roster in 2023. Many fans have been rooting for him since being drafted by the Twins 39th overall in 2019. His debut in 2022 left a lot of questions about his ability to hold up against MLB-level pitching. 2023 was far from perfect, but headed into 2024, Wallner should have fans feeling a bit better. Fans hate strikeouts. Twins fans especially do after watching the home team strike out a record number of times in 2023. They’ve also been subject to long stretches of hollow at-bats by hitters such as Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo in recent years, which has turned them particularly sour to whiffs. Strikeouts are a part of Matt Wallner’s game; there’s no way around it. Even in Triple-A, he struck out just a shade under 30% of the time in 2023. His 31.5% rate improved from the 38.5% he posted in limited action in 2022. The question with players like Matt Wallner isn’t whether they will strike out. It’s whether they make the strikeouts worth it. In 2023, Matt Wallner showed that he can make the trade-off worthwhile. In 254 plate appearances, Wallner slashed .249/.370/.507, good for 44% above the league average hitter. He walked 11% of the time and was on a 30+ homer pace for an entire season. Max Kepler had the lowest strikeout rate on the Twins, with a minimum of 250 plate appearances, and Wallner outpaced him in OPS .877 to .816. Matt Wallner’s 2023 is a prime example of how a high strikeout rate can be worth it. More encouraging even than Wallner cutting his strikeout rate from 2022 to 2023 is the fact that pitchers seemed to find a hole in his swing midseason, and Wallner was able to adjust back. The strikeouts became a focal point when Wallner went 0-16 with eight strikeouts from September 5-10, causing some to wonder whether we were watching things play out similarly to Trevor Larnach earlier in the season. Wallner took a day off to make some adjustments and finished the season, slashing .354/.456/.646 with a 28% strikeout rate. As a hitter who tries to wait out the pitcher to make a mistake, the strikeouts go hand in hand with the power and walks. Anything close that he doesn’t want to hit, he’ll spit on. Sometimes, he’ll miss pitches in the zone with two strikes, leading to higher strikeout rates. It’s an approach that could become a lot easier to accept if the Twins don’t have such a strikeout-heavy team in 2024. Joey Gallo and his 42.8% strikeout rate will be off the roster next season. Michael A. Taylor and his 33.5% strikeout rate may be as well. With fewer all-or-nothing hitters in the lineup regularly, Wallner should be a better complementary hitter in the Twins lineup, especially when contact specialists such as Brooks Lee and Austin Martin debut. It’s still a limited number of at-bats for Wallner in his career, but the high ceiling he’s shown, along with the ability to adjust, should be very encouraging. He may always be prone to stretches of low points to go along with the highs, but the hope is that as he develops, he becomes more consistent and continues to be able to adjust back to opposing pitchers. Five games in October shouldn’t warp fans' view of Matt Wallner. He had an unbelievable year, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t have a chance at an everyday role in 2024. Is he due for regression? Could he possibly even improve upon his impressive 2023? Let us know below! View full article

Injuries, unfortunately, are nothing new to the Twins. Depth became key in 2023, as the front office looked to insulate several positions with high-risk players. In 2024, first base should be added to that list. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Production-wise, 2023 was a successful season for Alex Kirilloff. The former top prospect bounced back from years of wrist issues that kept him off the field. His overall offense was 20% above the league-average hitter. While the wrist finally held up, a shoulder issue emerged, first sending him to the IL midseason, and then knocking him out of the ALDS. Unfortunately at this point, the Twins need to be careful with how much they expect to get out of the former first-round pick. 2023 was surely a major step forward for Kirilloff’s health, appearing in 108 games, his most since 2018. While this can be considered a positive, the fact that his season ended in injury yet again is difficult to ignore. He’ll spend his offseason rehabbing a surgically repaired shoulder, and his readiness for day one of the 2024 season isn’t guaranteed. We all love Kirilloff after having watched him ascend through the organization across so many years, but relying on him being durable and effective in 2024 is too much of a risk. First base is one of the easiest positions to find help. Offense is the number one factor, with gold glove-caliber defense rarely being a priority. In addition to there often being many available options that are pure first basemen, it’s also a position that former outfielders and other position players will transition to relatively often. Regardless of how the Twins see Kirilloff, first base will certainly be a spot to add to with Joey Gallo and Donovan Solano departing. The question becomes whether they add platoon/depth pieces, or if they pursue top-tier contributors. They could look to add someone like Garrett Cooper or CJ Cron on cheap deals to platoon. The risk of course is the possibility that Kirilloff continues to miss time and these players find themselves in a much bigger role than intended. Perhaps someone like Edouard Julien is trusted at first base more in 2024, making this route more viable. The Twins could also look to make an addition that immediately becomes a key offensive piece. If they were to sign someone like Rhys Hoskins to a deal, the Twins would be making a legitimate full-time addition to the lineup. Hoskins has a career .846 OPS and would add a hulking right-handed bat to a lineup that has needed more thump against left-handed pitchers for years. It may make Kirilloff’s path to everyday playing time a bit more narrow, but he was often platooned even when he was healthy and productive. The Twins can also utilize the DH spot to make it work. The Twins have found themselves in a familiar situation. First base may not be quite at the level of center field, where they have to plan for the backup potentially becoming a full time player, but there are significant question marks for Alex Kirilloff headed into 2024. As a team looking to compete for a second consecutive division title, and a young core that could carry them into October as they develop, the Twins can’t afford to downplay the uncertainty at a position that’s so easy to insulate. Should the Twins be wary of trusting Alex Kirilloff too much headed into 2024? Should they be looking to make a modest addition to first base, or a major splash to make sure the position is completely covered? Let us know below! View full article

Just how accurate was our robot overlord? Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports If you can recall the two posts I made almost exactly eight months ago, PECOTA—the flagship projection system from Baseball Prospectus—had some thoughts regarding the Twins. Well, it had thoughts regarding every player, but we only looked at those set to don Minnesota jerseys. Enough beating around the bush: here’s how well the computer did. (After-season numbers are taken from Baseball Prospectus’ leaderboard found here for pitching, and here for hitting.) Perhaps most notable at the time was PECOTA’s optimism surrounding Pablo López, who joined the Twins as something of an unknown, possessing immense strikeout potential without the full season of unquestioned dominance. Turns out, the system was actually a pessimist: López crushed it in 2023, turning in 4.8 WARP, good for 3rd in MLB. PECOTA was also too low on Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober; all three starters bested their projections, with Gray doubling his assumed WARP. Louie Varland can claim underrated status as well; he wasn’t even in the original post and ended up as the eighth-most-valuable pitcher on the team at the end of the year. Also, the computer was absolutely correct in regards to Emilio Pagán, whose ERA (2.99) and FIP (3.26) were freakily close to his projections. Perhaps this is a lesson in patience, or—rather—that giving up a lot of homers isn’t necessarily innate in a pitcher’s DNA; this is a weird and frankly unfair game we’re fans of, and Pagán proved that the difference between a hero and a villain is often just a few feet. Finally, the Jovani Moran train may have hit a cartoonish boulder, crashed, and exploded in a fiery rage, but he actually came within tickling distance of his projection thanks to a whiff rate amongst the best in MLB. He appears a good bet to rebound next season if healthy. Now, let’s move onto the batters: It, uh, didn’t do great here! Let’s start with the positives: PECOTA nailed Max Kepler’s bounceback season, actually underselling him by a few points of DRC+, but otherwise prophesizing his best season since COVID hit. It also warned people not to be too down on Royce Lewis; we all know how that went. But… yeah, this one is a mess. Minnesota’s 2nd and 3rd most valuable position players ended up being Willi Castro and Matt Wallner, not Jorge Polanco and Carlos Correa. Byron Buxton ended up behind Christian Vázquez. Jose Miranda is lost somewhere in the Joey Gallo void. Gallo himself… it’s best to keep his name locked up in a box, lest uttering it releases curses unto humanity. I'm a little humored that Trevor Larnach couldn't escape his fate, essentially nailing his pedestrian prediction. It's clear this was a season dominated by the unpredictable; be it the rookie onslaught or Castro's elevation, the exact shape of Minnesota's offensive production was atypical, but eventually effective. ---------------------------------- Overall, I’m impressed with how accurate PECOTA was in regards to the pitching staff. Some hurlers blew past their projections, but the order was mostly in line with how the season played out. Calling on Pagán to exceed wasn’t something perhaps any Twins fan could do. Hitting was a big miss—anyone who predicted Willi Castro being Correa’s equal in DRC+ would have been hanged as a witch. Projections are helpful, but there’s a reason they play the games, and strange and unusual things happen when competitors at the highest level face off against each other. View full article

Some people are responsible for the Minnesota Twins playoff run ending. Some are more responsible than others. Here are seven of them. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports In the wake of a season-ending 3-2 loss to the Houston Astros, it’s important to note how wildly successful this year was for the Minnesota Twins. Ending a decades-long playoff drought, running away with a bad division in the second half, the rise of young stars like Royce Lewis and Ed Julien. But. As noted by a friend of mine, the season ends badly for every playoff team except one. Minnesota is not that one. So before the hurt and frustration wear off and the anticipation for building on the successes in 2024 begins, let’s vent one last time. Here are the things I'm still angry about on Friday. The offense. My god, fellas. I know we’re all (correctly) furious at the next group on this list, but even Rob Deer thinks you strike out too much. Hit the ball! Make them play defense! Please! The umpires. As a Minnesotan, you have two divine rights: To say where you were and what you were doing during the Halloween Blizzard of 1991; and Hold a seething, unfathomable rage against professional sports referees. Would it surprise you to learn that Wednesday’s home plate umpire blew the biggest call of the game in Houston’s favor? Of course not! You just saw another Minnesota team get worked over by the refs in deference to their sport’s defending champions last Sunday. ‘Twas ever thus. And the second you notice it, much less complain about it, some smug [redacted] will say the mistakes balance out and good teams overcome it. My response, honed by years of careful observation and hard-won experience, is this: No they don’t and [redacted] you, [redacted]. Byron Buxton’s body. Anyone who watched him try to run this year, and his admitted mental struggles with the DH role, knew a Kirk Gibson moment was wildly unlikely. The soft pop-up on Wednesday was, sadly, the appropriate end to his nightmare of a year. One of the most gifted athletes you’ll ever see in your life, constantly betrayed by his own body. The six biggest what-ifs of 2023 are as follows: Healthy Byron Buxton. Healthy Carlos Correa. Healthy Royce Lewis. What would the Twins have done without Michael A. Taylor? What would Game 5 in Houston have been like? (I honestly think the Twins win, that's how in the tank I am for Pablo.) Cutting the cord on Joey Gallo in June instead of September. Regression. As Sonny Gray or anyone who crammed for an accounting final will tell you: Math is cruel. Regular prices at Target Field. The family values sections, where you could get relatively cheap popcorn and Budweiser, didn’t exist for the playoffs. How are people on a budget supposed to be super loud and verbally abuse the opposition without cheap beer and salty snacks? Speaking of which… Arguing about how loud/not loud Target Field crowds are. If you thought Target Field crowds were plenty loud prior to 2023, the raucous, ear-splitting noise that literally assisted the biggest play of Game 2 versus Toronto should make you reassess. Admit you’re wrong! Apologize to Dan Hayes! He's a sweet, gentle boy! Bullpen games. I’m actually OK with Rocco’s quick hook of Joe Ryan and the plan in general. But I’m not OK with the pace of play when you’re hauling in new pitchers every inning. This is more of an aesthetic complaint than a strategic one. The pitch clock is the best pace-of-play innovation in baseball since they stopped putting amphetamines in the coffee. And with that, I would like to thank the 2023 Twins for being good enough that it was challenging to make fun of them every Friday. They were fun! View full article

The Minnesota Twins will look to construct a postseason roster that has them well positioned to win a three game series at Target Field. Wanting to capitalize on the short stretch, they’ll utilize the 26 openings different than they may during the regular season. Who makes the cut in the outfield? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Twins Daily Rocco Baldelli probably had envisioned a certain way in which his outfield was going to line up coming into spring training, and then at no point this year has that been possible. Byron Buxton never ramped up from offseason surgery, and despite playing only designated hitter in an effort to get him back on the grass, we haven’t seen it. The three spots have been in flux with a rotating cast of names each week, but there has been a consistent trio available. This stands to reason as the most likely alignment when Minnesota throws the first pitch of their wild card round: Right Field - Max Kepler If there is a spot that’s locked in, it’s this one. That may have seemed crazy to say a few months ago, but since the All-Star Break, Kepler has been among the Twins best players. He’s forced the conversation as to whether he’ll return in 2024, and there is no doubt he’ll start in right field for Game 1 of a Wild Card series. On the season Kepler owns a .798 OPS and a 116 OPS+. While he is still better against right-handed pitchers, the platoon splits aren’t quite as drastic in 2023. Baldelli will likely have him lower in the lineup against a lefty, but Kepler has proven to be a strong commodity both in the lineup and the field. Last time Minnesota player a postseason game, Kepler started in right and center. Eddie Rosario is now gone, and Byron Buxton’s status remains murky. While Alex Kirilloff debuted against the Astros in right field, he shouldn’t be expected to factor in there this time around. Left Field - Matt Wallner For most of the season this spot was given to veteran Joey Gallo. He has struggled mightily since a strong April, and finds himself on the injured list currently. Minnesota could opt to bring the power hitter along as a bench bat, but starting him over Wallner at this point doesn’t seem likely. The Forest Lake native waited out his time at Triple-A St. Paul, while continuing to produce at a high level. He has now proven he’s capable in the big leagues, and he’s responded well from his first true slump. Wallner is much more susceptible to struggling with lefties than Kepler is, so this spot could be Willi Castro’s should a southpaw be on the mound for game one. Wallner has come up big in some very pivotal moments for the Twins during the regular season, and he’ll be given a grand stage in front of hometown fans during the postseason. Wallner possesses an immense amount of talent at the plate, and he’s shown that he’s more than capable in the outfield as well. Center Field - Michael A. Taylor It’s unfortunate that, like the last time Minnesota was in the playoffs, they’ll be without Buxton in center. He did start Game 1 against Houston before being a pinch-runner in Game 2 during 2020. Taylor was brought in as an insurance policy for Buxton, and he’s helped to be that and more. Although Taylor has produced at a near league-average rate offensively, and in large part to his career-best power surge, he gets this nod as a defender first. Like Buxton, Taylor is an elite defender with significant range. Needing familiarity and consistency in a difficult role with game’s on the line, Taylor should be a set-it-and-forget-it type. It is unfortunate that Taylor missed time down the stretch due to a hamstring injury, but that’s behind him and the former Kansas City Royals defender should be all systems go. There really isn’t a platoon advantage playing him against any type of pitcher, and putting Castro in centerfield is a less-than-ideal option all around. Alternatives - Andrew Stevenson Every other name has been touched on thus far. If Gallo and Buxton are both left out, there is easily room for Stevenson to make the squad. With just one opening, it will come down to whether Minnesota prefers a defensive replacement with significant stolen base ability, or some other addition. Stevenson has shown he can swipe a base when the opposition knows it’s coming, and he’s a plus-defender at each of the three outfield spots. What choice Minnesota makes here probably has more to do with who they can’t roster than the guys they already have chosen. What do you make of the Twins outfield for the wild card round? Will they have an advantage over the opposition? View full article

Playing the last minor league game of the season for the Minnesota Twins affiliates, the St. Paul Saints came out Sunday afternoon looking to avoid inclement weather for the second consecutive day. With plenty of Twins trying to get in rehab action, there was more than enough to watch. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints TRANSACTIONS RHP Chris Paddack completes rehab assignment and is activated by Minnesota RHP Josh Winder optioned to St. Paul SAINTS SENTINEL Toledo 3, St. Paul 2 Box Score After a rainout on Saturday evening, the St. Paul Saints took the field Sunday afternoon for their final game of the 2023 season. Although Chris Paddack was activated by the Twins, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Brock Stewart, and Jorge Alcala all continued their rehab assignments. Patrick Murphy took the ball for Toby Gardenhire on Sunday and worked four innings. Murphy allowed seven hits and three runs while giving up a walk and striking out four. Brent Headrick then took over in relief for St. Paul. The Mud Hens took the lead with a run in the second inning, and then tacked on another pair in the third inning. St. Paul got on the board in the fifth inning, and it was because of Michael Helman’s hustle that they got two. Beating out an infield single, Helman was on when Jair Camargo stepped in and launched his 21st homer of the season. The two-run blast made it a 3-2 game with the Saints drawing closer. Taking over for the seventh inning, and looking to keep things close for St. Paul, was Ronny Henriquez . He worked a scoreless inning of relief while striking out one. Hunter McMahon got the eighth inning with the Saints still needing a run to tie things up. McMahon followed Henriquez’s lead and worked a scoreless inning of his own. Unable to score in the eighth inning, Cole Sands was on to hold the deficit in the ninth, and give the Saints a chance. He did his job working a scoreless inning, and St. Paul was down to their final three outs. Yunior Severino struck out for the fourth time on the afternoon to kick off the inning, and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. was a strikeout victim as well. Buxton stepped in with just one out left and worked a 3-2 count. His fly out to centerfield ended the game Gordon finished the day going 0-for-2 with a strikeout and a walk. Buxton finished 0-for-4 with a strikeout, and Gallo was 0-for-3 with a strikeout. The Saints finish their season with an 84-64 record. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day –Brent Headrick (St. Paul) - 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K Hitter of the Day – Jair Camargo (St. Paul) - 1-3, R, 2 RBI, HR(21) PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the current Twins Daily Top 20 performed: #1 - Brooks Lee (St. Paul) - 0-3 #7 - Austin Martin (St. Paul) - 0-2 #14 - Yunior Severino (St. Paul) - 0-3, 3 K #20 - Brent Headrick (St. Paul) - 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Sunday’s game! View full article

With the Cedar Rapids Kernels winning the Midwest League Championship Wednesday night, the St. Paul Saints were the lone affiliate in action on Thursday. Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton was back in action as the designated hitter. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints TRANSACTIONS OF Byron Buxton begins MLB rehab assignment with St. Paul SAINTS SENTINEL St. Paul 4, Toledo 2 Box Score Playing with a full complement of Twins rehabbing talent again on Thursday night, the Saints had Byron Buxton batting second as the designated hitter while Joey Gallo batted third and was in left field. Nick Gordon had a scheduled day off. The pitchers, Chris Paddack, Brock Stewart, and Jorge Alcala were all available out of the bullpen. Making his final start of the season, now as the Saints single-season strikeouts record holder, was Randy Dobnak. Chris Williams, fresh off his franchise-record 21st home run, was out of the lineup on Thursday night. It was St. Jude night at the ballpark, and there’s still an opportunity to join Randy and Aerial Dobnak for the walk/run on Saturday. Kicking off the scoring, Toledo grabbed a first inning run off of Dobnak and the action was underway. Former Twins prospect Bryan Sammons started for the Mud Hens. While he recorded eight strikeouts in six scoreless innings, Dobnak nearly matched him. The Saints starter worked six innings allowing just one run on three hits and four walks. Dobnak struck out seven to finish his season with 115. Andrew Bechtold came on for his 20th appearance on the mound this season. While he’s been wild all year for St. Paul, pumping triple-digits continues to be fun to dream on. After striking out the first batter he saw, Bechtold walked the next, gave up a single, and then walked another to load the bases. A sacrifice fly then made it a 2-0 lead for Toledo. Bechtold got out of the inning before more damage was done. Continuing the trend of former Twins prospects, Andrew Vasquez came on in relief of Sammons for Toledo in the seventh inning. After a Brooks Lee single, Kyle Garlick rolled a ground ball to the hot corner. Rather than the third baseman starting an easy double play, he threw the ball at Lee sliding into second, and it went sailing into right field. Lee came around to score with Garlick finishing the play on third base as the tying run. After hitting Jair Camargo, Vasquez uncorked a wild pitch that allowed Garlick to score and tie the game. Hernan Perez ripped a single back through the middle, just out of the shortstop’s reach, and brought Camargo in from second base. For the first time on the evening, St. Paul had a lead. After a Michael Helman single put runners on first and second, Byron Buxton stepped in for the fourth time with a pair of strikeouts to his credit. Buxton swung at a first pitch slider, from newly inserted righty Garrett Hill, and rolled it back up the middle to score another run. Joey Gallo walked to load the bases, but the Saints couldn’t push another one across and it was 4-2 headed to the eighth inning. Buxton was lifted for pinch runner Chris Williams, and his night of rehab work was done. Going 1-for-4 with a pair of strikeouts and the single, Buxton will look to get more action in before St. Paul ends their season on Sunday afternoon. Curtis Taylor worked a scoreless inning for St. Paul to open the eighth inning, and the Saints didn't add on in their final frame. Ronny Henriquez came on to close it out in the ninth inning. He got a strikeout before issuing a walk, and then struck out another Mud Hens hitter to leave just one final out. Henriquez put the tying run on with a second free pass, and the go ahead run stepped in. Colt Keith flew out and this one was over. St. Paul moved to 20 games over .500 with their 83rd win. Helman and Perez were the only two Saints to grab a pair of hits. Just three games remain at CHS Field for the year, and there are still great seats available. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Randy Dobnak (St. Paul) - 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 7 K Hitter of the Day – Hernan Perez (St. Paul) - 2-for-3, R, RBI, 2B, K PROSPECT SUMMARY We will again keep tabs on the Twins top prospects. You’ll probably read about them in the team sections, but if they aren’t there, you’ll see how they did here. Here’s a look at how the current Twins Daily Top 20 performed: #1 - Brooks Lee (St. Paul) - 1-4, R, K #14 - Yunior Severino (St. Paul) - 1-4, 3 K FRIDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Toledo @ St. Paul (6:37PM CST) - LHP Blayne Enlow Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Thursday’s game! View full article

Game 2 of the Midwest League Championship Series between the Cedar Rapids Kernels and Great Lakes Loons wasn’t able to be completed on Tuesday night, but it was a great game until the rain moved in. The Saints game in St. Paul saw a plethora of rehabbers play a role, including a couple fantastic outings from rehabbing pitchers you may be interested in. Image courtesy of William Parmeter, Fort Myers Mighty Mussels (photo of Andrew Morris) TRANSACTIONS The Saints had an active day in transactions, with a bunch of major league rehabbers joining the team across the river in St. Paul. RHP Chris Paddack, RHP Jorge Alcala, and LF Joey Gallo were all sent on rehab assignments with Saints. RHP Carlos Luna was transferred to the development list. RHP Curtis Taylor was promoted from the Wichita Wind Surge to the Saints. SAINTS SENTINEL Toledo 2, St. Paul 4 Box Score With the plethora of major league rehabbers joining the roster, the St. Paul Saints went with a bullpen game of sorts on Tuesday. The entire staff of seven who made an appearance was basically lights out against the Mud Hens. Hunter McMahon served as the opener and delivered a scoreless inning, working around one hit and two walks by inducing an inning-ending double-play. That would be a theme for the night, as the Saints completed four of them in total, while Toledo added three more. Austin Schulfer was the next man up and walked one and struck out one in a scoreless second inning. In the bottom half of the frame the Saints got their scoring started. Yunior Severino led off with a walk, and two-batters later Jair Camargo clubbed his 20th home run of the season for a 2-0 lead. The home team then turned the ball over to their first rehabber, in right-hander Chris Paddack. It didn’t go so well after a strikeout to his first batter, as a walk and two singles loaded the bases with one out, but Paddack bore down and struck out the next two hitters to keep the Mud Hens scoreless in the third. He went on to retire the final eight hitters he faced, picking up another strikeout in each inning to finish with five in his outing. Overall he allowed two hits, walked one, and struck out five while topping out above 98 MPH with his fastball. In the bottom of the fifth inning, the Saints extended their lead to 4-0 when DaShawn Keirsey Jr. led off with a single, rehabber Nick Gordon was hit by a pitch, and rehabber Joey Gallo delivered an RBI single. Trevor Larnach followed with a single of his own to complete their two-run inning and add insurance. After Paddack’s exit Michael Boyle (1 IP, 2 K) delivered a scoreless inning before giving way to Brock Stewart. Stewart ratcheted his fastball up to 99 MPH in his inning of work, walking one in striking out one in another scoreless frame for the pitching staff. Another rehabber, Jorge Alcala then did the same in the eighth, giving up one hit but inducing another double-play ball. In the ninth, Jordan Balazovic allowed two walks to start the inning, but got a big double-play grounder himself to keep this one from going sideways. It could have done that, because the next batter slugged a two-run homer for Toledo’s only runs of the game. Balazovic struck out the final hitter to close out the win. Nick Gordon (2-for-3, R, 2B, K) and Trevor Larnach (3-for-4, RBI, K) led the way with multiple hits. Joey Gallo finished 1-for-3 with a walk, RBI, and no strikeouts. Yunior Severino drew two walks and scored a run. KERNELS NUGGETS Great Lakes 1, Cedar Rapids 0 (Suspended in the 5th inning - Rain) Box Score Well, I’m not going to be able to crown the Cedar Rapids Kernels the Midwest League Champions tonight, as their game with the Great Lakes Loons was suspended in the fifth inning. The Kernels came into the game with a 1-0 lead in the three-game series, and sent right-handed pitcher Andrew Morris to the mound. He was excellent in his five innings before the suspension, with his only blemish being a solo home run in the fourth inning. He set the Loons down in order in each of the first and third innings, needing just five pitches in the third to do so. He finished with the one run allowed on three hits, no walks, and struck out seven. Both teams have just three hits to this point, with Emmanuel Rodriguez, Jorel Ortega, and Luke Keaschall all delivering singles. Rodriguez also stole a base but the Kernels are only 0-for-2 with runners in scoring position thus far. Game two of this championship series will resume tomorrow at 5:30 PM, with the Kernels up to bat in the bottom of the fifth, and Luke Keaschall due up. If Cedar Rapids is unable to make a comeback, game three will be a seven inning contest after this one’s completion. Right-hander Cory Lewis is the scheduled starter for game three, but there could be some shuffling of that due to this suspension. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day - Andrew Morris, Cedar Rapids Kernels (5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 7 K) Hitter of the Day - Jair Camargo, St. Paul Saints (1-for-3, R, HR, 2 RBI) PROSPECT SUMMARY Check out our full top 20 list here and how they performed on Tuesday below! #1 - Brooks Lee (St. Paul) - 0-for-4 #3 - Emmanuel Rodriguez (Cedar Rapids) - 1-for-2, K (game suspended) #7 - Austin Martin (St. Paul) - 1-for-3 #10 - Luke Keaschall (Cedar Rapids) - 1-for-1 (game suspended) #13 - Kala’i Rosario (Cedar Rapids) - 0-for-2 (game suspended) #14 - Yunior Severino (St. Paul) - 0-for-2, R, 2 BB, K #16 - Jordan Balazovic (St. Paul) - 1 IP, H, 2 BB, K WEDNESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Toledo @ St. Paul (6:35 PM CDT) - RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (6-6, 4.92 ERA) Great Lakes @ Cedar Rapids, Game 3 (if necessary) - RHP Cory Lewis (0-0, 2.25 ERA) Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Tuesday’s games! View full article

Twins rookie Matt Wallner is enduring his first set of prolonged offensive struggles at the Major League level. Can Wallner return to form before the start of the playoffs? Or will his spot on the Twins' playoff roster get taken by someone else? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker - USA TODAY Sports A young player's first full season in Major League Baseball is often a story of ups and downs. It is a yin-and-yang relationship where the highest of highs tend to get followed up by the lowest of lows. That phenomenon is currently happening to Twins rookie outfielder Matt Wallner. Wallner, 25, made his Major League debut for the Twins in mid-September of the 2022 season, hitting .228/.323/.386 (.709) with 13 hits, two home runs, and a 103 wRC+ over 65 plate appearances. The toolsy outfielder was impressive during his first cup of coffee at the Major League level, but making meaningful conclusions over such a short sample size would be malpractice. The early portion of the 2023 season saw him making multiple trips east and west along I-94. Wallner started the 2023 season with the St. Paul Saints and was eventually called up by the Twins on April 9 to replace a then-injured Max Kepler, who was placed on the 10-day IL on April 8. He played in six games for the Twins and couldn't generate a hit in 11 plate appearances before getting optioned back over to St. Paul on April 15. The Twins then recalled Wallner a second time on May 23, and he performed exceptionally well, hitting .636/.714/1.000 (1.714) with seven hits, one home run, and a 364 wRC+ over 14 plate appearances. Nevertheless, he was sent over to the 651 once again. Over the next month and a half, Wallner hit well enough that most Twins fans wondered why he wasn't getting an opportunity over then-struggling left-handed hitting corner outfielders Trevor Larnach, Joey Gallo, and Max Kepler. Finally, on July 17, Wallner again got promoted from Triple-A St. Paul and has been with the Major League club ever since. Wallner started his third stint off hot, hitting .238/.333/.571 (.904) with 15 hits, six home runs, and a well-above-league average wRC+ of 145 from July 17 to August 6. He capped off this hot stretch with a walk-off home run off Arizona Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald. The Twins, their fans, and Wallner himself were riding a high and reasonably so. A young, highly-touted prospect finally got an opportunity to contribute to his home-state team and was performing incredibly well. Why wouldn't everyone celebrate Unfortunately, Wallner's walk-off against the Diamondbacks marked the beginning of a downward spiral that has many questioning his short and long-term future with the Twins. To put Wallner's struggles into perspective, here are his numbers since August 7: Wallner - .172/.308/.391 (.699), 104 PA, 15 hits, two doubles, one triple, five home runs, 10.6% BB%, 35.6% K%, .218 ISO, .222 BABIP, 96 wRC+ Wallner hasn't performed terribly in this stretch, but it is arguably the worst month-long stretch of his career. To condense the sample size provided even more, here are Wallner's numbers since September 1: Wallner - .154/.333/.269 (.602), 33 PA, four hits, one home run, 21.2% BB%, 36.4% K%, .115 ISO, .231 BABIP, 81 wRC+ Offensively, he is struggling immensely as of late, and his ballooned K% of 36.4% and exaggerated swing-and-miss profile have many Twins fans derogatorily dubbing Wallner as a young version of Gallo. So, what is happening to Wallner? Let's take a look. Increased Swing-and-Miss Rate To begin, Wallner swings and misses at a lot of pitches, and while this isn't an inherently bad thing (see: Edouard Julien), the amount in which Wallner swings and misses on pitches is alarming. The best way to illustrate Wallner's swing-and-miss problem is through using the batting statistic titled Whiff%, which is a statistic that divides a hitter's total number of swings and misses by their total number of swings. Wallner currently possesses a Whiff% of 37.1% on fastballs, 43.1% on breaking balls, and 28.1% on off-speed pitches. Combined, Wallner's overall Whiff% sits at 37.5%. To go back to the Gallo comparison, Gallo currently possesses a Whiff% of 37.1% on fastballs, 50.6% on breaking balls, and 58.4% on offspeed pitches. Nobody in modern baseball has as high of a Whiff% of Gallo and his 1st-percentile Whiff%, but Wallner is alarmingly close, particularly on fastballs, where he has an identical Whiff% as Gallo of 37.1%. Wallner has struggled hitting fastballs as of late, but there is reason to believe he can quickly overcome this specific shortcoming at a relatively quick pace. Hitters tend to be able to make the appropriate adjustments on fastballs as they typically need to make slight revisions to both their timing and swing paths. Wallner should be able to make the adjustments, and while it likely will not happen this season, an offseason of tinkering with his swing should help him catch up to fastballs at a sustainable rate. What is alarming is that Wallner has a Whiff% of 43.1% on breaking balls. Hitters are less likely to make quick and relatively simple adjustments and suddenly be able to hit breaking balls like they can with fastballs. There is much more nuance to hitting breaking balls, and an extreme overhaul of Wallner's swing may be necessary. While this overhaul will not happen this late in the season, it is something to monitor this upcoming offseason, and it will be interesting to see how Wallner's stance and swing plane look next Spring Training. Until then, all the Twins can do is work with the player they have now. And while teams will continue to attack Wallner with both fastballs and breaking balls, there is reason to believe he can make the necessary short-term adjustments, particularly with fastballs, to help him perform more like the player he was in late July and early August. Wallner may need to simplify his stance and shorten his swing to get the most out of his at-bats for the rest of the season, and that may come at the expense of some power, but that is a trade-off that Wallner and the Twins would likely accept with open arms for the time being. Are Wallner's Struggles Simply Him Being a Young Player? Young players struggling, especially those of the power-hitting variety, is in no way an uncommon phenomenon as other young Twins hitters in Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Willi Castro, and the previously mentioned Julien either have or currently are undergoing offensive struggles of their own. What separates young players who can stay at the Major League level (i.e., Kirilloff and Lewis) and those who end up stuck in the constant limbo of being a Quad-A player (i.e., Celestino and Larnach) is whether they can make the necessary adjustments needed to be able to hit Major League pitching at a satisfactory rate. Wallner may be enduring the same struggles that every young player does, and he may be able to turn the corner and become a consistent contributor for the Twins for seasons to come. Unfortunately, the timing of his struggles at the plate couldn't have happened at a more inopportune time. The Twins are all but set to make their first postseason appearance since 2020, and the complicated judgment of who makes the playoff roster and who gets left off will soon need to be made by Twins decision-makers. A month ago, it seemed like Wallner was a near lock to make the roster, but that once obvious decision has become much cloudier as Wallner continues to struggle. Should Wallner Make the Twins Playoff Roster? To answer this question, we must first examine how the Twins outfield will likely look come playoff time. Currently, the Twins outfield options include Wallner, Kepler, Castro, Kirilloff, Celestino, Jordan Luplow, and Andrew Stevenson. Other potential outfield options include players on the injured list: Gallo, Nick Gordon, Byron Buxton, and Michael A. Taylor. Prospect Austin Martin is another option, but the Twins adding him to the 40-man roster and throwing him into action in the middle of a pennant race feels highly unlikely. Looking at the Twins' current outfield situation, Kepler, Castro, Kirilloff, and Luplow feel like locks to make the playoff roster. Luplow is strictly a right-handed platoon player, but his archetype is all too valuable in the playoffs. Celestino is only on the roster to take up space until Jorge Polanco returns from the bereavement list, and Stevenson could make the playoff roster, but he feels like a long shot. It always takes work to get a read on where players are regarding their health. Yet, when discussing Gallo, Buxton, Gordon, and Taylor, it feels like Taylor is a lock to make the playoff roster, while the potentially soon-to-return Gallo and Gordon could make it if injuries pile up. But unless that happens, Gordon and Gallo also feel like long shots. Buxton is a unique case; there is no reason to speculate until the Twins provide official updates. As things stand, Wallner is likely on track to make the playoff roster alongside fellow outfield options Kepler, Castro, Kirilloff, Luplow, and Taylor. If Wallner continues to struggle and a veteran like Buxton, Gallo, or Gordon returns from the injured list and produces, or if Stevenson begins to produce more offensively, Wallner's status could change. Come Game One of the Wild Card Series, the Twins will likely start Taylor in center field and Kepler in right field. Who will start in left field is still open for the taking, and if Wallner continues to struggle, don't be surprised if Castro, Luplow, or Kirilloff start in left field come October 3. Wallner's first stretch of prolonged struggles were expected, but the timing could not have been more unfortunate for the young Minnesota native. What do you make of Wallner's struggles? Does he deserve to make the Twins playoff roster? Comment below. View full article

As we near the end of the regular season, Minnesota hitters are showing some signs of life for fantasy players. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are 6-3 in September, and the offense has been a big reason why. Minnesota is averaging 6.8 runs per game this month, which included a 20-run outburst against Cleveland. There are a few guys fantasy players should focus on while the offense is hot. Carlos Correa (more on him below) is finally looking like himself, Royce Lewis has become a force at the plate and Alex Kirilloff is back at the party. The strong offensive performance raises the late-season outlooks of other Minnesota hitters as well, particularly Max Kepler, who has been locked in pretty much the entire second half and typically occupies a key lineup spot. We’ll explore the offense’s outlook for the week ahead in a bit more depth below. Let’s now take a look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also highlight some matchups to target and avoid this week. Twins Injury Updates Jorge Polanco Expected return: This week Polanco was placed on the bereavement list Sunday and will be away from the team for a few days. Gilberto Celestino was recalled from St. Paul to fill Polanco’s spot on the roster, but the former should be able to return soon, and he’s been performing well at the plate recently, too. Byron Buxton Expected return: September Buxton’s return remains a bit of a mystery. He was removed from his second rehab game on Sept. 1 with soreness in his right knee. Buxton has since been officially pulled from his rehab stint, and while it appears like a significant setback, the Twins haven’t ruled out his return this season. Michael A. Taylor Expected return: September Taylor remains out with a hamstring strain. He’s hopeful to return soon, but Willi Castro will continue filling in most of the time in center field until then. Brock Stewart Expected return: September Stewart tossed a 20-pitch bullpen session last week and felt good afterward. It’s unclear if a rehab assignment will follow or if the righty will continue to toss bullpens. Stewart could slot in as a key setup option if he’s able to return before the end of the year. Chris Paddack Expected return: Late September Paddack began a rehab assignment last week, tossing 54 pitches in his first game with Fort Myers. The righty is aiming for a Sept. 22 return to the majors, though he’ll likely work in a bullpen role instead of as a starter. Stock Rising: Carlos Correa ESPN ownership: 70% Late-season Carlos seems like officially a thing. The shortstop is batting .343 this month with two home runs and six RBI in nine games. Last year, as the Twins’ playoff hopes faded, Correa still batted .355 in the season’s final month with seven home runs and 19 RBI. If Correa gets on a roll like that, he could make the difference in many fantasy leagues down the stretch. Stock Falling: Joey Gallo ESPN ownership: 3% Gallo was pretty much already a fantasy afterthought, but he’s probably now fully off the radar for the rest of the year. He was placed on the injured list Friday with a foot contusion, which was convenient for the Twins with Kirilloff returning the same day. Whether Gallo is seriously hurt or not, it seems unlikely that he resurfaces with Minnesota unless there are more injuries. Gallo should not be on any fantasy rosters at this point. Prospect Spotlight: David Festa (Triple-A St. Paul) Festa was promoted to Triple-A at the end of August and he’s been good in two appearances for the Saints, allowing three earned runs across 9 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts. The righty is one of Minnesota’s top pitching prospects, and while he’s unlikely to make noise for the team this year, he could push for a rotation spot to begin 2024. Upcoming Week Matchup Notes 3 Games vs Tampa (Tyler Glasnow, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley) 4 Games at Chicago White Sox (Jose Urena, Jesse Scholtens, Dylan Cease, Touki Toussaint) Minnesota has a big test with Tampa coming to town, followed by a matchup with the struggling White Sox. For both Minnesota pitchers and hitters, I’m focusing on the Chicago matchups, but there are some avenues to potentially exploit with the Rays. Two-Start Starting Pitchers Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan are each slated to start twice. Both have been solid all season, and they should be locked into fantasy lineups this week. Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch Glasnow is the one spot I really don’t like this week, as he’s posted a solid 2.98 ERA so far and is coming off of a 13-strikeout performance. However, old friend Littell and Bradley are way less imposing, with the latter coming into the game with an ERA north of 5.00. Neither player has much of a history against the Twins, though you could definitely consider Minnesota stacks against the middling arms. The Chicago matchups look very enticing across the board. Urena has a career ERA of 4.90 and it’s been above 5.00 each of the last four seasons. Scholtens is 1-8 with a 4.38 ERA. Cease has struggled lately and has an ERA just a notch below 5.00. And Toussaint has a career ERA above 5.00 and hasn’t been much better this year. You could justify a Minnesota stack in any of these spots. Cease is the pitcher the Twins have seen the most, and Kepler has taken him deep three times in 25 career at-bats. Which Minnesota hitters do you expect the most from down the stretch? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week. View full article

The Twins front office has stuck to their process all season. Has it worked to their advantage? Image courtesy of Brett Davis - USA TODAY Sports Stubbornness is a polarizing characteristic. Traditionally, people associate stubbornness as a flaw of character: Close-minded, stagnant, and unable to grow with the ever-changing environment surrounding oneself. Stubbornness can stunt progression, leading to an adverse reaction that can affect people on a micro or macro scale, depending on the situation. On the other hand, stubbornness can be great when blended with a sense of discernment and a strong foundation, especially in decision-making professions where multi-billion-dollar corporations' success and public image are on the line. Sound familiar? When stubbornness leads to success, the decision-maker gets praised for being decisive, focused, and having a clear vision. Like most things in life, specific decision-makers and corporations' stubbornness should not be considered exclusively good or bad. To think in absolutes is a fault in thought process, especially when analyzing the ever-changing state of professional sports teams. Notably the 2023 Minnesota Twins. The narrative behind the Minnesota Twins franchise and specific Twins players resides in a constant state of extreme fluctuation, and much of that flux in narrative resides in the decisions, or lack thereof, made by the front office. The Twins front office decision-making process, or lack thereof, has created a new angst amongst Twins fans that has yet to be felt since the front office did essentially nothing to enhance and fortify the World Series-hopeful 2019 Bomba Squad. Although the Twins have done relatively nothing to improve this year's roster besides trading Jorge López for Dylan Floro and claiming Jordan Luplow off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays, the team benefits from sticking with a handful of players that the majority would have cut bait with long ago. While this is true, the other end of the spectrum exists, and the Twins have also suffered at the hand of their stagnation. Has the good outweighed the bad? Let's take a look. The outcomes manufactured by the Twins stubbornness overlap with the 1967 Spaghetti Western film aptly titled The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, so it feels appropriate to categorize the decisions made as such. The Good: The Re-emergence of Max Kepler and Emilio Pagán The prominent cases that illustrate the Twins reaping the benefits of sticking with players when the majority believed they should part with them are the recent performances of Kepler and Pagán. Here are Kepler and Pagán's numbers since the end of the All-Star Break: Kepler - .297/.344/.576 (.920), 128 PA, 35 H, 9 2B, 8 HR, .280 ISO, 21.1% K%, 150 wRC+ Pagán - 1.04 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 92.1 LOB%, 4.3 HR/FB, 0.52 HR/9, 61 TBF, 17.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 15 SO Kepler and Pagán have put up elite numbers since the All-Star break, propelling themselves into conversations of being the Twins current best position player and relief pitcher, respectively. Unfortunately, that was not the case earlier this season or last season for Pagán, and when discussing Kepler, this hasn't been the case since his breakout season in 2019. Kepler and Pagán's turnarounds have been encouraging. Although that doesn't guarantee future success, their production since the All-Star game has contributed significantly to the Twins having a 91.2% chance of making the playoffs, according to Fangraphs. The Twins front office's stubbornness has finally appeared to pay off with Kepler and Pagán, but this, unfortunately, isn't the end of their stubborn ways. The Bad: Unwavering Allegiance to Joey Gallo When the Twins signed Gallo to a one-year $11 million contract last December, a sense of optimism came with the addition. Many thought Gallo, like Sonny Gray, was a victim of the formidable pressure Yankees fans put on players. Once Gallo returned to a small market team, he could play loosely, thrive, and hit 41 home runs again, as he did for the Rangers in 2017. Right? Gallo has undoubtedly been better as a member of the Twins than the Yankees, but his numbers are less than inspiring in both cases. Here are Gallo's first 314 plate appearances with the Yankees compared to his first 313 plate appearances with the Twins: Gallo - Yankees - .167/.299/.380 (.679), 314 PA, 44 H, 16 HR, 38.2% K%, .213 ISO, 91 wRC+ Gallo - Twins - .180/.304/.447 (.751), 313 PA, 48 H, 20 HR, 42.8% K%, .267, 107 wRC+ Gallo has been better than many make him out to be and has provided defensive flexibility while hitting the occasional home run. Regardless, the Twins have better options to fulfill his roster spot waiting in the wings at Triple-A. It is reasonable to think that current Saints players Austin Martin, Chris Williams, Trevor Larnach, Anthony Prato, and potentially even recently promoted to Triple-A prospects Yunior Severino, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., and, most notably, Brooks Lee could help the Twins more than Gallo at this moment in the season. The Twins have done a great job at blending young hitters with their core veterans this season, but Gallo feels like the last roadblock that is stunting the development of a future full-time contributor like Martin, Larnach, or even Lee. Rostering Gallo for the rest of the regular season will likely prove insignificant as the Twins are all but locked into a playoff spot with a 91.2% chance of making the playoffs. However, suppose the Twins elect to start Gallo over a promising young player like Matt "Cement Bones" Wallner or Alex Kirilloff in a playoff game or prioritize pinch-hitting him for Royce Lewis or Donovan Solano in the late innings of a playoff game when a right-handed relief pitcher enters the game. In that case, flying too close to the sun could make the Twins like Icarus. The Ugly: Neglecting the Back End of the Bullpen The way the Twins front office's stubbornness has negatively affected the 2023 team the most is through neglecting the back end of the bullpen. While the front office choosing not to improve the back-end bullpen should be considered malpractice, their passivity hasn’t come back to haunt yet due to admirable performance from the front-half of the bullpen. Highlighted by Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, currently inactive Brock Stewart, Floro, and the previously mentioned Pagán, the Twins, according to Fangraphs, have the 22nd-ranked bullpen generating 2.1 fWAR. While the combination of Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Pagán, and Floro, to an extent, have performed well, they account for only five-eighths of the bullpen, leaving three bullpen spots relatively unclaimed and lacking production. Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, and Cole Sands currently fill the final three bullpen spots. However, their jobs are in a highly dynamic spot, as all three of these relievers could get optioned back to Triple-A St. Paul at any moment. A playoff team's sixth-best reliever has to be better than the likes of Balazovic, Winder, and Sands. The five other American League teams currently owning playoff spots are the Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners. While each team has relief pitching-induced shortcomings, they have established bullpens that most would deem playoff-ready and more well-rounded than the Twins. To put this into perspective, here is how much fWAR each playoff team's sixth, seventh, and eighth options have generated combined compared to the Twins with seeding: Orioles - Danny Coulombe, Cionel Pérez, Nick Vespi (1.5 fWAR) Rangers - Chris Stratton, Brock Burke, Grant Anderson (1.6 fWAR) Twins - Balazovic, Winder, Sands (-0.4 fWAR) Rays - Jake Diekman, Shawn Armstrong, Jacob Lopez (1.1 fWAR) Astros - Ryne Stanek, Rafael Montero, Seth Martinez (0.3 fWAR) Mariners - Tayler Saucedo, Isaiah Campbell, Eduard Bazardo (0.5 fWAR) While some of the advantages appear incremental, it cannot be understated how much less productive the bottom half of the Twins bullpen has performed in comparison to the other playoff-caliber teams in the American League. The Twins front office purposely rejected two opportunities to improve and fortify their bullpen by not acquiring a reliable veteran set-up man this past offseason and by not trading for another veteran relief arm to complement the acquisition of Floro. Electing to have faith in unreliable young relief options like Balazovic, Winder, Sands, Jovani Moran, and Oliver Ortega has proved to be the front office's greatest fault this season. Will it come back to haunt them in the playoffs? That remains unanswered, but if it does it is essential to note that it was entirely avoidable. The Twins front office has expressed a sense of stubbornness regarding roster decisions this season. While it will likely prove to be insignificant the rest of the regular season, it has the risk of being their Achilles heel come the post-season. What do you make of the Twins front office's stubbornness? Has it worked in their favor? Do you think they will come to regret it? Comment below. View full article

As we approach the 2023 trade deadline, the Twins’ offense has left much to be desired. The deadline presents an opportunity to add thump to the lineup, but the path to acquiring those boosts is unclear. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Entering play on Saturday, the Twins had the 20th-best OPS in MLB, but they’ve managed to stay around a .500 record because of their excellent pitching. It’s easy to see how pumping the offense up to even a bit better than average could lead to a good team down the stretch. However, getting those additional bats is difficult, given the players currently on the roster. Now, I am not saying that the current players deserve to remain on the roster; the only two Twins positions that rank as a top-10 OPS by position are second base (9th) and designated hitter (3rd) in the league. The issue is that bringing in an additional bat generally necessitates either the displacement of a veteran or the further blocking of a prospect—or both. I wrote last month about how the team has yet to make an active, no-takebacks roster move. Furthermore, the only bat the team has bought at the deadline was backup catcher Sandy Leon, so we don’t have much precedent to go off of. Below is a position-by-position breakdown of the difficulty in bringing in a new hitter, starting with the worst-performing offensive position and working down. Centerfield—28th (and DH—3rd) Michael A. Taylor has done an admirable job holding down centerfield defensively, but if the team wants to bolster the offense, center is the most glaring weakness. Obviously, the answer could be as simple as moving Byron Buxton from DH to center, but we have yet to get any indication that the Twins are willing to do so, given Buxton’s health. Specifically, the team could sacrifice defense for offense if they wanted to and shift Taylor to a reserve role. A move for a right-handed centerfielder like Adam Duvall, who has hit lefties well, could be a natural fit. Duvall is neither a star nor a good defensive outfielder, but he will at least stand in center, as opposed to Max Kepler. We'll discuss Kepler and his cronies later on, but it's worth mentioning now that the Twins have a significant backlog in the outfield, and bringing in a new centerfielder will add to that. If, somehow, Buxton returns to the outfield, the question would be about filling a DH spot, but I’m not getting my hopes up. As it stands, a Duvall-like move seems to be the most promising, though not exciting. Third Base—24th Jose Miranda entered the year as the top third baseman in the organization, but he currently has more plate appearances in AAA St. Paul than in Minnesota. Since his recent call-up to replace Royce Lewis, who will miss more than a month with an oblique injury, he has not impressed, nor has he been an everyday player. A motley crew of Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, and Donovan Solano will play the days he doesn’t start. There would be an opportunity at third base to add a bat. That is, there would be an opportunity to add a bat if Royce Lewis wasn’t expected back this year. It’s a complex argument to add at the spot where your recently-graduated #1 prospect is supposed to reside, especially because the outfield seems off-limits to him this year. Corner Outfield—26th (LF) & 19th (RF) The corners have been the subject of much consternation, hemming, and hawing this year. Joey Gallo and Max Kepler have held their spots in left and right, respectively, and given their veteran status, they have been treated like stalwarts. The situation could be aided by someone like Duvall as a right-handed bat to take the load off against lefties (I promise—last time that I’ll mention Duvall), but that doesn’t completely solve the problem. Further complicating matters are young corner outfield bats Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Even if one of Kepler or Gallo were jettisoned to make room for the new bat, the prospects in their mid-20s would continue to be blocked, much to many fans’ dismay. The team could always just let go of one or both of the veterans, but there’s no great assurance that the young bats will be any better, compared to the prospect of bringing in an established veteran. It’s a difficult situation to navigate, but that’s why Derek Falvey gets paid the big bucks. Catcher—20th There are few ways to improve the offense with a bigger bat catcher. First, ignoring the incumbents, bringing in a catcher with a big bat isn’t a reliable strategy. Catchers, for the most part, don’t hit, and bringing in someone who can hit well and play catcher is going to cost an arm and a leg. Personnel-wise, it’s also tricky. The current duo—Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers—have handled the pitching staff well. Vazquez just signed a three-year, $30M contract, and it’d be difficult to move on from him so early, even with his struggles at the plate. Jeffers looks like the future catcher, with an improved arm, solid framing, and a respectable .792 OPS for a catcher. It’d be surprising to see another catcher brought in. Shortstop—15th The only reason to include shortstop on this list is for consistency. Carlos Correa isn’t getting replaced. The only feasible way that a shortstop is brought in is as a Kyle Farmer replacement—hits lefties (hopefully better than Farmer) and is a legit shortstop. Farmer may get lost in roster churn around this time, but Lewis can also backup short, so it’s really not worth considering anyone unless a deal hits them in the face. First Base—12th First base has been primarily handled by Kirilloff, Solano, and Gallo this season, and it’s been alright. As much as fans would love a Paul Goldschmidt trade—or any other big bat, first-base-only player—it would lead to a conundrum like the moves in the corner outfield. Kirilloff was the organization’s top prospect a couple of years ago, so they would hypothetically want to keep him in the lineup, likely in the outfield if a new plod was traded for. That would further jam the corners and require additional moves and prospect blocking. One wrinkle here is the health of Kirilloff’s wrist. In recent weeks, he has shown less ability to drive the ball, despite his continued excellence in putting the bat to the ball. If his wrist isn’t healthy again, playing time at first base would open up, and the team would want to bring in someone who can produce in the power position. Second Base—9th The Twins already have too many second basemen. If and when Jorge Polanco returns from injury, they’ll be in a position where two of their top hitters—the other being Edouard Julien —will have only played second base this year. They need to sort that out before they add someone else to the mix. The Twins would be well-suited to bring in a bat or two somewhere. The issue is that there’s no simple way to do so. “Established” veterans will be removed or moved to reduced roles, and there are young players who deserve full-time work. It's going to be the type of difficult decision that we have yet to see this season. As of yet, there’s no indication of how new hitters would fit, but hopefully, we’ll find out soon. View full article