LA Vikes Fan

You're right, but they did. Bitching about it now ain't going to change that. Hey, we did get some good prospects in return. I have an idea, why don't we trade some of these great prospects we have for good relievers with some controllable years left and reverse what we did last year? A lot people seem to love to hate last year so let's do the opposite this year. There's guys like that out there who are rumored to be available. Let's trade some of our prospects not named Jenkins or Culpepper for guys like Soriano, Detmer, or Sam Bachman of the Angels, Mason Miller, Bradgley Rodriguez, or Jhony Brito of the Padres, Luke Weaver of the Mets, Daniel Lynch, Lucas Erceg, or Alex Lange of the Royals, Jeff Hoffman of the Blue Jays, Trevor Rogers or Shane Baz of the Orioles, or Hunter Greene or Nick Lodolo of the Reds. I'm sure there are more maybe even better guys that could be had for some of the talent we have in the minors. Let's do it.

Just one addition to my rant above. What we should be doing is looking to TRADE prospects for guys that can help us now and in the next year or two, not trade the guys we have that can help us now and in the next year or two for more prospects. We got prospects. We don't need more prospects. What we need is a few more better MLB players. Getting more prospects doesn't satisfy that need, at least in the short term and probably not in the medium-term as the returns at the deadline tend to be guys at the AA level or lower. I don't think Jeffers is going to get us multiple AAA players ready to join a big league club. I hope the FO is on the phone trying to make deals for guys that have multiple years of control remaining, at least 1.5 This would be guys like Soriano, Detmer, and Bachman of the Angels, Mason Miller, Bradgley Rodriguez, or Jhony Brito of the Padres, Luke Weaver of the Mets, Daniel Lynch, Lucas Erceg, or Alex Lange of the Royals, Jeff Hoffman of the Blue Jays, Trevor Rogers or Shane Baz of the Orioles, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, or even Spencer Steer of the Reds. I think every prospect we have should be available for the right deal except for Jenkins and Culpepper. We can replace those prospects with the prospects we get when we trade Jeffers.

Okay, I will be outlier; the lone voice calling in the wilderness. Cody is absolutely right. Trading Jeffers is the only one that makes sense, the only one where we have a replacement in-house AND we might get a return that could potentially help us in the short to medium term. Trading Ryan is waving the white flag on 2026 and probably 2027. All you get when you trade at the deadline is prospects to replenish your farm system, untested prospects at that, only a select few of which can provide you short term help at the MLB level. We just did that last year. We do not need to do it again and I am firmly convinced that evidence shows that we can get just as much for Ryan in the off-season as we can at this year's trade deadline. We might even be able to get more since you can pick up actual MLB talent in the off-season and what do you get at the deadline? Prospects. The looming lockout may compress the off season trading season but it won't eliminate it. The looming deadline is a red herring that really has very little to do with this decision. Let's not over-think this. Trade Bell and Larnach? Sure, if you can get a late inning reliever, an MLB experienced or ready pitcher that can step in to the rotation as at least the #3 starter, or a smooth fielding, good hitting shortstop. Can you get that for either or even both together? Not a chance. Trade one or both of them to open up ABs for someone at the AAA level who may or may not eventually be as good and certainly is not going to be anywhere near as good in 2026 or 2027? Why? Because fans are thirsting to see the AAA guys? Don't think so. Because we need to once again reset the core and play for 2028 and beyond? C'mon now, we're better than that. We don't have to tear everything down and rebuild again. Those two players are worth more to us than they are to anyone else and they provide us with the real value. Cody is right, they provide more value to the Twins on the team than they can generate in a trade. Makes very little sense to trade them. Jeffers is the guy to trade. I'd love to see them re-sign Jeffers and trade Caratini or Jackson, but the chances of that have to be less than 25-30%. I agree that it makes more sense to trade him and get value then lose him for nothing. Still, that value probably will be prospects, not major leaguers, prospects. Again with the prospects. Maybe we can get prospects that actually help us next year but even that might be a pipe dream. Maybe I'm unique or it's because I live in California and can't go to Saints games, but I'm getting a little tired of always playing for the future and always trading veterans for, dare I say it, prospects. No one cares how good the St. Paul Saints are, at least I don't. Restocking that team does very little for me unless the players on it can come up and help the MLB team. This year is strange. Nobody is any good or at least hasn't been so far so an average team that gets a couple additions and some luck could be an above average team that actually has a shot to make the playoffs and win a series or even two. Once in, who knows maybe we're that team that wins a series or even two. Teams in any sport don't come from nowhere to the playoffs as seasoned, championship contenders. Teams typically have to make the playoffs for a year or two and get bounced out before they have the experience and know what it takes to actually get to a championship. We might actually have a chance to get to the playoffs and start the process this year. I say we try to do that instead of dreaming about how all of these prospects are going to come up, immediately make the All-Star team, and turn us into an instant championship contender. Just my two cents.

He also still strikes out way too much to be valuable, even in a DH role. In 2026 he struck out 53 times in 135 PAs, 120 ABs. That's a rate of 39.3% of his PAs, and 44.1% of his ABs ended in strikeouts. He only drew 10 walks in those 135 PA, for a not horrible 7.4% walk rate, but that gives him a 5.3 to 1 K/BB ratio, which is horrible. His SO rate in AAA is down to 27.8% and his K/BB is 49/17, still bad but not quite as alarming. The general rule of thumb that I have read is you should take someone's AAA strikeout rate and add 5-7% to get their likely MLB strikeout rate. That would mean an "improvement" to a 33-35% SO rate, still not in the acceptable range. I would like to see Wallner get another MLB shot. At this point though, I don't think he'll have shot on a good or even an average team. He'll need to go to a bottom feeder to get enough playing time to show improvement. Kind of the same journey Brent Rooker went through. Unfortunately, Wallner is already 28 so it's hard to see even a bad team like the Angels giving him a lot of playing time. I would love to see him included in a prospect package traded for pitching from a bad team so he gets that chance. I wouldn't trade him to a team like the Astros just in case he has one of his hot streaks while we're competing with them for a playoff spot. He won't add value or get us a better player, but I'd like to do right by the guy to make sure he gets every shot to make it. I doubt that he will get another shot with Twins because I think they've concluded that he can't help us. I could be proven wrong.

I hear that and think it's a good take, probably the right one. We play 10 games in a row starting Friday, 3 in Chicago against the Cubs, 4 in Cleveland, and 3 home games against the As. That's 3 road games against a good team, 4 roadies against a similarly situated team, and 3 home games against a fading, not very good team. That gets us to July 27, a week before the deadline, and 107 games, one short of exactly 2/3 of the schedule. We go 7-3 or better in those 10 games, keep Ryan and buy, buy, buy. We go 3-7 or worse, start making calls and see if a team will knock our socks with an offer. In the more likely event we go somewhere between 6-4 and 4-6 (I would actually predict we go 5-5; 1-2 v. Chi, 2-2 vs. Cleve, 2-1 vs. Oak), then I fall back to my position of keeping Ryan through 2026, trading him in the off season if we get a really big offer, and if not, trading him at the 2027 deadline unless we think we're contending for a championship.

I tend to agree that the offense will regress and revert to the mean (I think it's already starting for some guys) but I do think there is one major wild card on that - what will we get in the second half from Lewis, Bell and Keaschall? The Twins carried Lewis, Bell, and Keaschall through May but they all have really started to hit like we'd hoped in the last month. Over the last 30 games, Lewis is hitting .274/.333/.521 (.854), Bell .297/.355/.526 (.881) and Keaschall .303/.418/.449 (.867). That is a quality 4-5-6 in any lineup. Add in continued performance by Buxton, Larnach, Lee, and Clemens (and maybe Jeffers if not traded) and that's a very potent lineup. Frankly, if Jeffers stays I would put up those 8 guys (with the Larnach spot a Larnach/Martin platoon) against pretty much any lineup except the Dodgers. I think there's a least a 50/50 chance that those 3 will continue to hit. If that happens we no longer have to rely on outlying performance by guys like Kriedler and Gray, can play the best fielding SS (Kriedler) to improve the defense, and the whole outlook improves. I hope we trade prospects for pitching but that's not the real key to the second half - it's continuing to score runs at a high level. I think that's dependent on Lewis, Bell, and Keaschall unless we get really lucky and someone come up from AAA and knock our socks off. Those three are a major key to the second half. That, and not having any significant injuries to the 6-7 pitchers that are really carrying the staff.

Keaton Winn is an intriguing target. I don't know a lot about him, but he looks and sounds like exactly what we should be looking to acquire – a young, high upside arm with multiple years of remaining control. He is in the kind of guy for whom you would give up a two prospect package headlined by a higher end prospect outside of your top 10-12 with another in the back part of the top 30 or below. A similar value that might be available is Sam Bachman of the Angels. His statistics aren't quite as good as Winn this year but he has a 94 – 97 mph fastball that can get over 100 mph, a plus plus slider rated at 70 on the 20 – 80 scale, and an "improving" changeup. 2027 is his first arbitration year and he's not a free agent until 2030. I would love to see the Twins pick up Bachman, particularly as part of a package with Soriano or Detmers. I would be willing to part with a prospect package headlined by a top 10 prospect not named Jenkins or Culpepper and including two more in the back half of the top 30 for that kind of package in return.

There is a lot that has been written about the idea that there are two types of people, some who prioritize the risk of loss, and some who prioritize the possibility of gain. You can see those two types of people in these comments. Some people emphasize the possibility of injury, the chance that the 2027 season may be wiped out or shortened by a lockout/strike, and a hope that the return will be higher at the 2026 deadline than in the off-season. Some commenters emphasize the possibility of a playoff berth and/or playoff push this year, the chance he might sign an extension in the off-season, or having him here to show that "new" ownership is serious about change and improve attendance. None of these attitudes is wrong, they are just different. There is no answer that is "smarter" than the other, or more "serious" than the other, they just reflect competing priorities, competing assumptions about the future, and most importantly, the priority dichotomy between the risk of loss and the possibility of reward. Cody is right, there is no right or wrong answer here. I'm a pragmatist by nature and an optimist by attitude. My pragmatic half says that the likely return for Ryan in the off-season will not be materially different than the likely return at the deadline and that this year may present an unusual opportunity to get into the playoffs or even win the division with 83 to 86 wins. My optimistic side says that Ryan is unlikely to get injured in a way that would impact his off-season trade value, that he might be worth more in the offseason since we can get MLB talent then rather than just prospects (which I much prefer), that the Twins recent play will continue after the break, and that they can get to that 83 to 86 win threshold that will get them into the playoffs either as a division winner or a Wild Card. All of this leads me to choose option numbers 2 or 3. I would keep Ryan this year for sure and try to sign him in the off-season by making a market value or close to market value offer. If you can't re-sign him I would trade him in the off-season if we can get a huge return or wait until the 2027 deadline to decide whether to trade him. If you're not contending at the 2027 deadline, trade away. If you are, it might be worth the excitement keep him around and take the risk that you lose him for draft compensation. I am willing to accept the risk of injury or a lesser return to get the possibility of playoff contention this year and next and a new attitude for the team. So for me, NOT trading Ryan at the 2026 deadline is a no-brainer because to me the potential upside is substantially higher than the potential risk of loss. This is a much tougher decision in the 2027 off-season, and it's kind of a no-brainer that you have to trade him no later than the 2027 deadline unless the team is truly contending for a championship in 2027. So that's what I would do. I would even go so far as to have management stand up and say "We are not trading Joe Ryan at 2026 trade deadline. We hope that he remains Twin for the rest of his career and are committed to having meaningful negotiations this off-season with a market value contract offer." That's what I would do and by the way, I think that is the right thing to do for the team in the short term and in the long term because of the attitude it signals for a team badly in need of a re-set.

Keaschall started out poorly but he is .303/.418/.449 (.867) over his last 30 games, .293/.380/.440 (.820) over his last 150 ABs. He also is playing pretty well learning the OF. I would say he’s been better than disappointing since the slow start. The underlying metrics aren’t great but they weren’t last year either. I think he is what we thought he was.

I agree that the roster construction is poor although I'd argue its improving. Guys can play 145 plus games a year, and they do it by taking a "half day off" every now and then by DHing. Bell can't play in the field if Lewis is the DH so something has to give. If the question is who would be the best type of 13th player, I might agree with you. I think the real question is who among the guys we have would be the best 13th player. In that light, I could see Jackson being as good a choice as anyone else we have. You and I probably remember when it was "normal" for a MLB starter to play 150 plus games a year. That just doesn't happen as much any more. Guys go on the IL more often for more minor things so they can go all out when they play. Mangers play more matchups. Probably the biggest thing though, is they can't take drugs any more. Back in the day there was a jar of Greenies in every clubhouse and guys feeling tired took one or 3. Some guys took them every day. MLB banned the use of amphetamines in 2006 and that makes it a lot harder to play and a lot harder to focus in the July, August, and September heat every day. Carlos Correa even once commented when asked why he wasn't playing 160 games a year that now the most you can take is some Vitamin E instead of uppers, which is not really the same. I suspect there is a lot of Adderall or Ritalin being taken for ADD or ADHD diagnoses - some legit, some maybe not so legit - because those drugs really help with focus and energy. Bottom line, its a lot harder to play 160 games a year if you can't get some pharmaceutical help than it is if you can.

Two thoughts. First, nobody can or really should play every day. There will be days when Lewis and/or Bell will sit. Playing both Jeffers and Caratini on those days makes the lineup work. I'd be happy with a truly defensive/SB demon who can be used every day as the 13th man. Do we have that guy? Ben Ross maybe? It's not worth giving up any value for but having that guy on the roster and going with 2 catchers works for me. I just don't don't d know if we have that guy.

I hear you on Robbie Ray. Tom Pohlad is saying he's willing to spend. Ray is making $25m this year and is then a FA, so the cost is about $9.3M for the rest of this season if trade happens now over the ASB (he costs $136,612 a day; man did I get in the wrong business). The cost is about $8.5M if we pick him up around July 31. No buy out, no commitment for 2027. No reason for SF to pay part of the salary unless they want to so they can get a better prospect and then I would resist depending on who they want. I think he's definitely an option as long as we are realistic about what we're getting, a rental of a 4th starter who can eat innings and potentially start a playoff game if someone gets hurt. That's worth a top 20-30 prospect like Olivar, Amick, or Rosario to me. The only one in that 20-30 group I wouldn't give up for Ray is CJ Culpepper.

The issue with our current roster construction isn't really because were carrying three catchers; it's because we have a utility infielder that can't play a competent SS. Jackson actually helps our flexibility as the 13th guy because he can play a corner 0F spot, and both Jeffers and Caratini can play 1B and hit well enough to be viable at the DH spot. You can actually put Jeffers and Caratini both in the lineup as long as you have Jackson sitting on the bench to be the backup catcher in case of injury so you don't have to lose the DH spot if your catcher gets hurt and has to come out. Add to that the fact that Jackson has played RF in the minors and assumedly can be at least a somewhat viable corner outfielder or IB in a pinch, and you actually have a guy who has some value as the 13th player, particularly a guy who is hitting .296/.321/.407 (.728) with very sporadic playing time. Guys that can hit without regular playing time are not easy to find. The problem is we have the wrong utility infielder in Tristan Gray because he can't play SS or 3B very well. I think the answer is coming soon though. I think Gray should get demoted as soon as Buxton comes back and we run with Lee as the backup SS until a decision is made on catching. Now if you want to also keep both Roden and Martin on the Twins and get Culpepper up to the Bigs, one of the three catchers needs to be traded. I would trade Jeffers unless we thought we could re-sign him now or at the end of year so we don't lose him for nothing, but I can see the argument to keep him for the rest of this year, give him the Q0, and get draft pick compensation. You either have to trade him or give him the QO. If you make the latter decision, I think Jackson's performance this year has been good enough that he actually has some trade value for like an A ball lottery ticket or as a throw in on another trade so we won't have to just DFA him but if we do, we do. Culpepper can then come up to the Bigs. We can ease Culpepper into the SS position with Kriedler playing SS a couple of days a week and use Kriedler as the utility infielder the rest of the time. He's actually perfect for that role, a guy with a great glove and inconsistent bat who can also be the backup CF or at least one of the backup CFs. Get Culpepper up and you have 5 IFs for 4 spots, a quality backup SS regardless of whether Culpepper or Kreidler is starting, plus 2 catchers who can both play 1B if Lewis gets injured or needs a day. We would also have 5 OFs, 3 RHs and 2 LHs, and it doesn't really matter if any of them are great in CF because you have Kreidler who can play an above average CF while Culpepper plays SS. If Culpepper is still hurt or isn't ready, Twins might want to think about Ben Ross for that same role given his age (25) and his stellar performance in AAA so far. He might be worth a look in any event. So I think there's a pretty simple solution that allows us to keep Jackson in the short term, create playing time for Culpepper or Ross by the end of the month (or sooner if we make the trade sooner), and create space for one of the formally AAA outfielders that we think could actually be a real contributor by next season like Roden. The key is to demote Gray when Buxton is ready to come back. I actually think that leaves us with a better roster.

Jackson actually played some RF in the minors so I could see them putting him in a corner OF spot if someone gets hurt during a game, second game of a doubleheader (do they still have those), or to effectuate an extra inning pinch hitting thing. Besides, both Caratini and Jeffers have played a fair amount of 1B or DH, so having Jackson around actually increases our flexibility to put both of those guys in the lineup and still have a backup catcher. Add in catching once a week in a 7 game week, and I think he adds plenty of value for the 13th guy.

I think you're right, but we don't need Robbie Ray to be a #2 or really even a #3 with Ryan, Bradley, and Ober on the roster. We need him to be a #4 or #5 depending on how one views Matthews and how many more innings we can get form Prileipp. Now, Ray might have to move up if there's an injury to the guys ahead of him but frankly the Twins are toast if Ryan or Bradley goes on IL for more than 15 days from here on out. I'd be open to Ray depending on the required return. A top 15 prospect? Hard No. A prospect in the 21-30 range? Sure.

I have to say I don't agree with this with respect to either Fedko or McCusker. Yes, Fedko only got 16 ABs. There's a reason for that. He looked completely overmatched at the plate and struck out in 8 of those 16 ABs, plus 2 walks. McCusker had 29 ABs, five hits, and 16 strikeouts with 1 walk. The bottom line is neither one of them was ready for the MLB level or, frankly more likely, neither is good enough to play at the MLB level. McCusker is now playing in Japan and hitting pretty well there. He may have found his level and who knows, maybe he'll make some improvements with regular playing time at a level that is probably as good or better than AAA but less than MLB such that he can come back to the States and catch on with somebody. But let's not kid ourselves that he and Fedko didn't perform because he didn't get enough of an opportunity. They didn't perform because they aren't good enough at this point in their careers. I do agree that it's time for the Twins to think about trading Fedko through a bad team that could give him a longer run to see if he can find his footing. The only question is whether somebody would give him a chance seeing that he is already 26 and is just now breaking out at the AAA level. I think it would be great if he was a throw in on a trade with a team like the Angels or Rockies where we got some bullpen help or a mid rotation starter by giving up some good prospects, plus Fedko. That would be a good way to treat the young man. Who knows, with 150 at bats the rest of the way in a low-pressure, losing environment playing five days a week, Fedko might show a lot more. He will never get that opportunity with Twins.

I'm guessing Bradley pitches Friday, Ryan or Ober Saturday and the other Sunday. There is no reason to trot out Matthews early when he's been so inconsistent. He can pitch against Oakland, no Sacramento, no Las Vegas, next week. It just feels like the situation with Jeffers will be resolved sooner rather than later. While I'd love to see him re-signed, I expect him to be traded to for prospects, one pretty good one and one long shot. I wouldn't be surprised to see him traded over the ASB so the team van have a full compliment going out of the gate.

I'm a little more bullish although not too much more. Would you agree that this year is an improvement in FO performance?

I think the team is doing exactly what they should do with respect to the bullpen. The Twins are over performing what was expected in a down year for the rest of the league. That creates opportunity. We need a better bullpen. So what they’re doing is grabbing guys now while there’s still three weeks to look at them before we have to trade for a bull pen help. Bullpen arms are very expensive in terms of prospect cost at the deadline. You wind up trading one of your top 10 prospects for a slightly above average MLB reliever and that reliever is usually over 30. If you trade someone in the 15–30 range you get a guy that is 35 or older and is usually a free agent at the end of the season That’s trading a lot for not very much. The better route to Shore up your bullpen is get a guy you think you can tweak a little to improve, if you can find that guy, and if you can make the tweaks, or someone who is being dropped for contract reasons. That’s why you pick up a Jack Anderson, Go, or Nance, or you pick up Danny Coulombe because Boston doesn’t want to pay his contract incentives since their bullpen is very good. You pay the contract incentives because your pen isn’t very good. Coulombe is more valuable to the Twins than he is to the Red Sox so we’re willing to pay and they don’t have to. You start there while you’ve got a few weeks to figure out if these guys are enough to get you over the hump. If they aren’t, then at the end of the month, you trade for another reliever and give up the prospects you would rather keep. I’m actually encouraged by what the front office is doing. They are actually trying to improve the team. I think the players see it. Royce Lewis was at the press conference that introduced Nance so he could introduce himself and he mentioned that he had Buxton talked about it and were excited by the acquisition. That’s how you take a good thing and make it better and that’s how you keep players around, you show them you’re willing to invest in them. This is actually competent management. It’s weird to see from this team, but I think it’s actually happening.

Trade for Jose Soriano or Reid Detmers. Spend money extending Ryan and Jeffers if they’ll talk to us. Trade for Sam Bachman. Be willing to give up any prospect not named Jenkins or Culpepper to get it done if you can get both one of the starters and Bachman.

I don't know if this is our official "trading deadline thread" but I wanted to raise an interesting possibility. Word is that the Padres would consider trading Mason Miller, best closer in the business who is arb eligible in 2027 and isn't even a free agent until 2030. They gave up DeVries for him so the return for him now has to be something similar plus, and they need position players in the worst way with an aging and ineffective lineup. How about something like this: Twins get: Mason Miller Padres get: their choice of Emanuel Rodriguez, Kaeden Culpepper, or Gabriel Gonzalez, plus their choice of Royce Lewis, Henry Mendez, Brandon Winknour or Marek Houston, but they can't have Culpepper and Houston. If necessary, the Twins also throw in Trevor Larnach, or Matt Wallner and another prospect from the 20-30 range in the rankings. What does everyone think? Is that enough? Too much?

I hadn't thought of this problem, and I think you're right. It does make one wonder if maybe a trade of Jeffers is happening sooner than waiting for the actual deadline. It could also be that if Roden looks like he's ready that Larnach will be traded earlier. Buxton is eligible to come off the 10 day IL Friday the 17th for the Cubs series and even if you think they'd be willing to let him sit out that series, he is coming back by Tuesday the 21st for the Guardians series unless there's something really wrong. We're kind of betwixt and between because that doesn't give us too much time to evaluate Roden, trade Jeffers, or trade Larnach. Here is my guess assuming Buxton is ready to come back no later than Tuesday, July 21 in Cleveland. Most likely possibility is Jeffers is traded before then for prospects which opens a roster spot. Next possibility is Larnach is traded for a relief pitcher or for prospects, Martin and Roden become the left-field platoon, and Adams goes to AAA for that relief pitcher. If neither one of those has come to fruition and there is no injury we can use to create a spot, Roden or Martin has to go down because we have to keep at least one utility infielder.

I agreed that Gray is providing very little value at this point. I think the biggest flaw in keeping him on the roster is that we only really have one utility infielder spot and Gray cannot play shortstop at anything close to an MLB quality level. Culpepper is the obvious replacement but you can't bring up a guy who can't stay healthy. So effectively we are playing without a competent backup SS and the starter has a history of not be able to hit although Kreidler is doing better this year. Not a great situation. The issue is who else can be the replacement. Frankly, the two best replacements in AAA are Arcia and Ross and neither of them is on the 40 man roster. Orlando Arcia can play a decent MLB shortstop. He's not much of a hitter with a .654 MLB OPS this year, but at least he can field the position. He also easily be jettisoned when Culpepper is ready. Ben Ross is an interesting choice but I don't know if he can field well enough to play SS in the Bigs. He hit well in AA and is holding his own in AAA. Again though, he is not on the 40 man roster. I think everything depends on when Culpepper is likely to be ready. If it's soon, I would expect them to just roll with Gray for now or maybe replace him with Arcia. If it may be mid August or later before we see Culpepper, I would like to see them lose Gray and bring up Ben Ross. Banda is out for the year so he can be moved to the 60 day IL to create space on the 40 man roster. Let's see if Ross can play SS and whether he can hit MLB pitching. If he can, he gives you another utility option if Culpepper can't come up this year or tanks when he does get a shot. Kreidler can hold down the position for now and provides a viable utility option when another shortstop comes in so the opportunity probably goes away when Culpepper or Houston is really ready. Now might be a good time to take advantage of this window and get a look at Ross to see if he might fit in our future plans.

I agree that there will be a lockout. I think the only question is will it get resolved in time for an entire 2027 season, for just a partial one, or if the entire 2027 season is wiped out. How the system will or will not change is a complete crapshoot at the is point. No one knows. But I don't think that changes the analysis unless you assume there will be no 2027 season at all, which I see as very unlikely and are far and away the least likely outcome. The chances for a lockout will be factored into every trade decision at the deadline and will be in the off-season. It really doesn't change the calculation unless the entire 2027 season is wiped out and then the chance to have a guy like Ryan during 2027 will have no value, but only if the 2027 season is wiped out but still counts towards free agency. I also see that as a very small possibility; if the season is lost and then a deal is made the players are not going to get a years worth of time to free agency from that lost season. So to me, the upcoming lockout is relevant only in the fact that the value of a contract that extends through 2027 and then ends may be lower than it would be in other similar circumstances but the upcoming lockout will affect the return equally regardless of whether the trade is at the deadline or the off-season. I don't see a lot of risk from waiting till the off-season based on the lockout unless there is no 2027 season at all and I see that as highly unlikely. Based on that, I think past history is instructive and we are likely to get a better or just as good return for Ryan in the upcoming off-season as we are at this year's trade deadline.

While I agree that the Twins either need to extend Ryan or trade him, there is no urgency to make that decision at the 2026 trade deadline. The urgency domes in the offseason. History tells us that teams overpay for relievers at the deadline by giving up quality prospects for average guys. That is not equally true of starting pitching. I think you actually get your best deal in the offseason for starters, not at the deadline, because you can t get MLB proven talent at the deadline. You only get unproven prospects at the deadline. They are simply not as valuable as controllable proven talent. There's also a business and team imperative that has to be considered here. Ownership is trying to reestablish trust with the fan base. There also trying to create team camaraderie, something Shelton is doing a great job with. Both of those things would be almost irretrievably broken by trading Joe Ryan at the deadline in a year when the Twins have an actual chance to sneak into the playoffs. Sure, if the they do sneak in they probably only last one round and if they get lucky and win the first round, they probably get blown out by the big boys in the second round. Still, a year like that can really help with the fan base and help in recruiting free agents to come and improve the team in the future. Those are real and important considerations and both of them point strongly away from trading Ryan at the deadline. Ryan stays in 2026. You try to sign in the off-season and, if you can't, you trade him before spring training.