LA Vikes Fan

Agreed. Kremer in the #4 spot in the rotation. Ober as the 6th starter/piggyback/long man in the BP. They already tried him in that role in a game with Kremer earlier this month. I could foresee a Kremer and Ober combo basically functioning as the number four or number five starter. And I say that even after I say we should trade Joe Ryan. I think the top three are some combination of Bradley, Lopez, and. Prielipp, with Abel, Matthews (again, I think he should be traded for a 2B), Rojas, and Grayson Rodriguez (acquired in a trade of Lewis) all fighting for the fifth starter spot.

I think at least half of the answer at 1B and 2B is already in house – put Clemens at 1B. Statistics say he was a better than average defensive 1B and a well below average defensive 2B. Moving him over helps solve two defensive paun points without sacrificing offense since he is going to be in the lineup anyway after this last season. I think we’re gonna have to go outside the organization for a 2B this year. I don’t think we should rely on Huston to be the solution middle infielder for at least another year or two, if ever. I’m not suggesting he won’t be quality MLB player, I’m just suggesting that it is fools gold to expect that to happen before 2028 or 2029 and the latter is more likely. I think the solution at C and 2B are probably in the trade market. I would trade Joe Ryan to the Dodgers for Dalton Rushing and a good prospect. I would then trade someone like Zebby Matthews plus a quality AAA outfielder like Rosario to Miami for Xavier Edwards. Finally, I would trade Lewis for a change of scenery candidate like Grayson Rodriguez of the Angels or someone like that, or for some prospects. Do that and you’ve improved the defense with younger players and improved the speed profile. The names may be different, but the concept is to trade Ryan, a young starter with upside like Matthews, and Lewis in return for a young Catcher, 2B, and a younger player with some upside.

Before you can predict what you need you have to understand what you have AND what steps are going to happen in the off-season. I think we can do both. Fun exercise so let's start with steps I think are likely coming: 1. Starting Pitching - Pablo Lopez will be re-signed through a three or four year extension. Joe Ryan will be traded to a team that thinks they can sign him to a 5 or 6 year extension, most likely in California since he's made no secret that wants to go back there. It's in the Twins' best interest to trade him to a team that can re-sign him so they get the most in return. I suspect he will go to the Dodgers or the Giants, but I could see the Rangers or Braves trying to get him as well. 2. Catching - Ryan Jeffers will get the QO and sign elsewhere. I think the Twins will offer him something like three years, $45-$60 million but it will take four years, $75-$80 million to get him signed and I don't see them going there. Hope I'm wrong. 3. Free Agents/Arb candidates We Have - We re-sign AJ Minter to a two-year deal, in the $8 to $9 million AAV range, the higher end of his projections. Rogers, Larnach, and Bell will be gone, maybe we get a AA or AA prospect for Larnach after tendering him a contract. Ober stays one more year as a long man in the bullpen/6th starter, after signing a 1 or 2 year deal in the $6 million-$8 million per year range. 4. 1B - We don't need a 1B for 2027. We have one. His name is Kody Clemens. He's an above average defensive 1B, average to below average at 2B, and there is nobody out there to pick up. His roughly .235 – .240/.300/.450 (.750) slash line only needs to go up a little be perfectly viable at 1B. He improved his batting average from .218 to .235 from 2025 to 2026. If he comes close to doing that again he's a .245/.315/.450 hitter who's a decent hitter against same sided pitching, hits 25+ HRs with 80 plus RBIs, and field at an above average level. That is a whole lot better than any available free agent IB that we could afford. If that's true, what do we need? 1. We need a younger, controllable middle infielder to play 2B. I love the idea of trading for Xavier Edwards of Miami. I think that will require a package like Matthews and Kalai'a Rosario or Henry Mendez. I think we make that deal. I would make a lesser deal to get Vaughn Grissom of the Angels. 2. We need a Catcher. I think the targets will be first Dalton Rushing of the Dodgers and second Tyler Stephenson of the Reds. I think Twins should try to trade Joe Ryan to the Dodgers for package that includes Rushing and a 15-30 prospect that's at least in AA. I like Jackson Ferris (LHP) or Logan Wagner (2B). 3. We need one more upside, late inning reliever if we don't re-sign Minter, should still try to get one even if we do. Probably requires a free agent signing. Love the idea of signing David Bednar but I think that's unrealistic since he will want to stay with the Yankees. I think we sign Bryan Abreu. 4. We need to get some value for Royce Lewis because in my scenario he has no place to play. I think we trade him to the Angels for Grayson Rodriguez, a classic trade of two talented "change of scenery" candidates. Angels desperately need a 3B, have no one in the pipeline, and Twins get a talented but inconsistent hard throwing RH pitcher. So, in summary, I think the moves are to trade Ryan the Dodgers for Dalton Rushing plus a prospect, trade Lewis to the Angels for Grayson Rodriguez, sign Bryan Abreu as a free agent, trade Zebby and a AAA OF for a controllable 2B like Xavier Edwards, and re– sign AJ Minter for the bullpen. We then move Kody Clemens to primary 1B, teach Roden and Martin to be passable at 1B for MLB depth there along with Caratini, with Sabato and GG in AAA as 1B depth. Here's what we wind up with we do those things: Starting Pitching - Rotation is Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp, Kremer, and Abel. Rojas, Grayson Rodriguez, Gallagher, CJ Culpepper, Bohorquez, and Paredes are in AAA and are the rotation fall backs in that order. Bullpen - Hoffman (closer/late inning), Morris (closer/late inning), Minter (closer/late inning), Gomez (closer/late inning), Banda, Abreu, Nance, and Ober. Sands, Adams, Paredes, Pasqualotto, and one classic MiLB signing like Matt Bowman are in AAA for BP depth. I'd like to do the same thing with Funderburk but he is out of options and I think they will trade either him or Ober, or keep both in the bullpen and not pick up a guy like Abreu. Starting Lineup/batting order - Keaschall (OF/DH), Culpepper (SS), Jenkins (OF/DH), Buxton (OF/DH), Clemens (1B), Lee (3B), Rushing (C), Edwards (2B), Roden (OF/DH). The group of Jenkins, Edwards, Rushing and Roden fill the #3, #7 – #9 spots depending on how guys perform but the #3 spot is a place to put a LH hitter who can hit LH pitching. Might be vulnerable to LH starters so we need to keep Martin or find a quality RH FA bat who can play OF, C, or IB but doesn't need to start because I want Jenkinsin thee lineup almost every day with Roden or EmRod. Maybe we pick up Ryan Monuntcastle coming off of injury? Good luck with anyone else based on what i can see so we keep Martin. I have high hopes that Jenkins can fill the #3 spot so that the first four hitters in the lineup are all speedy, base stealing/good baserunning threats, with the slower guys in the #5-#7 holes, and faster guys at the number 8 and 9 spots. I put Roden in the starting lineup instead of EmRod because Roden has outperformed him (and Jenkins) in the roughly 80 ABs they've gotten in 2026 (50 for EmRod). Thos latter two are fighting it out for ABs. Bench - Caratini (C/1B), EmRod (OF/DH), Martin (5th OF/2B/RH hitter), Kriedler (UTL who can play quality SS). Jackson in AAA is the 3rd C. Wouldn't hurt to teach Roden and Martin to play a passable 1B for a backup there and I would tell them that now so they can work there in the off season. There you have it, attack away. Happy to post this in the Blog section or even as an article here if we want to have a "What Will The 2027 Twins Roster Look Like" post to start the raging debate over the winter.

Appreciate the post. I think where we disagree is how they handled Jeffers, Ryan, and Larnach at the deadline. I was one of the people here that was a little seduced by the possibility they could make the playoffs so I was against trading Jeffers, at least for what was reportedly being offered. I felt and still feel like making the Q0 and getting a Comp A pick could and should lead to getting at least as much prospect value as we could get in a trade. Not trading Larnach was a bad move; they should have pivoted once the Houston owner nixed the trade they liked. I think Ryan is a more interesting situation. I would like to get back some controllable MLB talent for him, not just prospects like you get at the deadline. I think if they really do have the rebuild strategy, the right move here is to trade Ryan this off-season. We should get more now than we would at the 2027 trade deadline and he is not coming back after next year. I think you can mitigate the potential short-term issues by re-signing Lopez to another three or four year deal, Bradley replaces Ryan, keep either Ober or Kremer in the rotation (I pick Kremer), you have two open spots for Prielipp and either Matthews or Abel, with the other one plus Rojas and others at AAA. Trading Ryan should also give you the chance to potentially fill the hole at C, 1B, or 2B with young talent. If you do that and say pick up a good young C or 2B and move Clemens to 1B, we really have completely turned over the entire lineup from two years ago outside of Buxton. There are a lot of steps that have to happen for that reality to occur but I hope they can do that.

I was a big fan of Lewis but I think he's reached the end with the Twins. I think he has enough talent; I just think he's slow to adjust and still sees himself as a face of the team. I would see if he could be traded for another change of scenery candidate where both teams could benefit from upside realized in a new environment. I would see if the Angels would take him in return for a guy like Grayson Rodriguez. I would be looking for a younger guy who has talent but can't seem to get there or is blocked somewhere else.

I don't think its fair to call the Twins FO "lost". They started a rebuild at the 2025 trade deadline and have really continued that this year. They were basically a .500 team at the time they made the last three of the four trades, tied the last wild card spot, and 4 games out of the AL Central lead. They'd also just finished a very strong July. I don't think the FO expected to contend much in 2026 and then saw an opportunity so they made the trades for a backend starter and bullpen pieces, three of whom were controllable in 2027 when I think they hope to contend. In other words, they saw an opening and decided to go for. In retrospect, it was the wrong decision the way things played out with the offense and starting pitching collapsing but it was a perfectly defensible decision at the time. They have continued to play young players, called up some who they expect to be on the team in 2027, and are in the process of basically turning over two thirds of the roster. This is a classic rebuild. The Twins FO isn't "lost" in the sense of their fumbling around without a plan. We can debate whether it's a good plan or the right plan, but it's pretty clear they have a plan to rebuild the team by turning over 60 – 75% of the roster. I expect that to continue in the off-season. I think Ryan will be traded, Bell will go somewhere else, and Larnach will either be traded or non-tendered. I think they will give Jeffers the QO and try to re-sign him (and fail), and I think there is a very good chance that Lopez gets an extension that keeps him here at least two or three more years after 2027. If you look at the roster, they will start next year with new players who have been with the team less than three years at SS, 3B, LF, RF, DH, and 2B. I think there is at least a 50-50 shot that they trade Lewis, which would add 1B to the list. If you look at their starting lineup opening day 2025 compared to what we expect 2027, they have different starters and different reserves at every position except for Buxton in CF and maybe Jeffers at C. They will have at least two starting pitchers with less than three full years of experience, probably three, plus Bradley was not with the team until last year. The bullpen has completely turned over with at least six of the eight spots to be occupied by players who have been with the team a year and 1/2 or less. I think if you compare the 2024 or 2025 starting roster with the 2027 starting roster, you will find at least 60-75% change and it may be more. There may be as few as 5 or 6 players that were on the opening day roster in 2024 or 2025 that will be on the opening day roster in 2027. Will they be any better? Who knows. What we do know is that the Twins decided during 2025 that the team wasn't good enough to contend, decided to do a tear down and rebuild, and next year will be the year when we see if that strategy starts to show signs of success. We won't know for sure until 2028 after guys like Jenkins, Rodriguez, Prielipp, Morris, Gomez, Culpepper, etc. have gotten some real experience. Some of us may not like what they've done, we may complain about particular moves, but I don't think it's fair to say that the Twins are in any way "lost". They have a plan and they are executing it. We'll find out if it's a good plan or well executed the next two years.

The BP is an interesting puzzle for next year. You have to think that Hoffman, Banda, and Morris are written in pen for next year. Despite wobbling down the stretch, Gomez was 21-23 in save opportunities so I'm pretty confident he gets another spot. Nance is at least in pencil for a mid leverage spot. That's 5, with Minter re-signed it's 6. I think Sands and Funderburk are dependent on whether we re-sign Minter and what they do with Ober and Kremer. I think only 1 stays in the rotation so they have room to start Prielipp and Matthews, and maybe Abel or Rojas if they trade Ryan (which I think happens if we can get a quality starting C, 1B, or 2B for him). I could easily see Ober in the bullpen, so that's 6, maybe 7. That doesn't leave a lot of room. I suspect Funderburk's lack of options gets him the 7th or 8th spot, with Sands, Festa, Adams, and Acton in that order either in the last spot or in AAA as the injury/ineffectiveness call ups. Those last 5 names could easily be changed around depending on ST performance or injury. All of them will pitch in the Majors next year. Still, much better BP group than we started last year with. Good to see.

This. Bell gave us almost exactly what we expected when we signed him. No shame on him. Still, we don't need a DH next year. We have 4, maybe 5, OFs who need to play almost every day (I'm counting Roden since he has the best stats of the 3 young guys). Sabato is now up and who knows, he may show enough to get a shot next year. GG and Mendez, and even Rosario, may need a look in 2027. Let's leave to DH spot open to rotate guys through as we settle on a new core.

I generally agree but I think we all need to remember 1 thing - Lewis has had 2 ACL reconstructions and several other significant soft tissue injuries. He's not the same guy he was in 2023. He is a physically diminished player. Just watch him run some time. He's a baseball player, not an offensive lineman. A major knee injury can be a career killer in baseball. Maybe the injuries have affected his swing, maybe not, but he clearly is not the same player we saw in 2023 and probably will never be that guy again. I think he would be a great chang of scenery candidate for a trade. I wonder if there's a deal out there to move him to a team like the Angels for a pitcher with arm talent but control issues like Grayson Rodriguez or a young 2B with a "maybe" bat like Vaugh Grissom. Could be good for both teams, could be good for the players as well. This is something we should explore in the offseason.

I know we all want to give and get instant grades on trades (like everything else in these days of 24 hour talking head sports coverage). This trade is the classic type that takes at least 2 seasons to evaluate since we got prospects back for established MLB talent. Toronto got a guy who's turned into very good to elite MLB reliever. We'll see if that lasts or if it's a one season phenomenon and Varland returns to the slightly above average reliever he was with the Twins. We got a hitter who's shown some strides this year - .278/.349/.375(.724) in 72 MLB ABs - and a 22 year old LH pitcher who has shown tantalizingly good stuff but no consistency yet. If Rojas is a top of rotation starter by 2028, it was a good trade. If he's a middle of rotation starter and Roden is a solid starting MLB OF, it's a good trade. If Rojas is an elite reliever, it's a good trade. If he's a solid reliever and Roden is a solid OF, it's an OK/meh trade. If Varland returns to what he was in MN or God forbid gets an arm injury, it's a good trade. Anything else, we lose. We should know by the end of 2027/beginning of 2028. That's the thing with trading for prospects; it takes at least 2-3 seasons before you know if you made a good deal. That's why I wasn't keen on trading Ryan or Jeffers for prospects at the deadline, and prospects is all you can get at the deadline since no contending team is likely to trade quality from the MLB roster while contending. I didn't want to wait 3 years for the payoff. I think we can contend sooner,

The outside options are meager. There is no one, and I mean no one, to pick up in FA to play 1B. There are a couple of 2B FA options but they’re older as in 32 plus. I think the solution is in the trade market. I’d like to see us trade Ryan, Larnach, and Lewis. Let’s target a younger 2B in a trade and move Clemens to 1B permanently. He has the offseason to work on his defense. He already has a slightly above average OAA and UZR rating at 1B which you would hope could get better with concentrated development. He’s a below average 2B, mostly because of limited range. His bat is good enough to play 1B. Make a move for a good young second baseman if possible, or maybe Marek Houston will be ready sooner than we think, and improve the defense at second with Clemens providing above average defense at first. Helps the pitching and might help the lineup.

I'm not sure I was clear enough in my post. My view is that we offer Larnach and Ober arbitration if we can't trade them before the offer deadline and then trade them so we never have to pay that money. There is of course some risk that you can't trade them but I think the risk is minimal for both. Salaries of 7 to 7.5 million a year for what they bring to the table is pretty standard or even low in the current atmosphere. If you don't like taking the risk that you might have to pay them, just non-– tender them before the arb deadline. I like taking the tender risk for the likelihood that I can get a couple of prospects in return before I have to pay the arbitration salaries a whole lot better. You may be more risk-averse that I am so your mileage may vary. The main point is to get them out of the way for players coming up rather than grinding through another mediocre or worse season using the same guys. As far as paying Lopez, $23-$30 million a year is the going rate for a quality #2 starter and might even be low. Again, you don't have to take the risk if you don't want to and you can opt for the alternative of pitching him in 2027, maybe trading him at the deadline for prospects (which is all you get at the deadline), or letting him walk at the end of the year. Whenever you sign anyone to a long term contract, especially a pitcher, you are going to potentially overpay at the back end of the contract for the value you get. If you're not willing to take that risk you cannot sign a pitcher to a long-term contract. Period. If you're not willing to sign a good pitcher to a long-term contract, you can't sign him at all because a good pitcher won't take a short term contract. I think it's worth it to take the risk to keep the guy who is the closest we have to a top of the rotation starter for the next four years. Remember, pitchers tend to age better into their mid-30s than hitters. As for Minter, two years $18 million-$22 million is the high end of the range of his expected contract for 2027. Many sites have him as likely to get one year, $6 million-$8 million because of prior injury and because he's lost a couple of mph on his fastball. I may be high, we might be able to get him for two years $15 million to $18 million. Even a better deal if we can do that. As for Jeffers, if you think he's not going to get a three or four year deal at least $16 million-$18 million in AAV, I think you need to look again at the Catcher market. He's it other than maybe Stephenson of the Reds who is a year older and has a worse track record. The Yankees need a catcher as do several other teams. I would not all be surprised to see Jeffers get a multiyear deal averaging $20 million a season. We got nobody else. We need him and, by the way, we got nobody else making any real money after 2027 unless we re-sign Lopez since Buxton's deal expires after 2028 and it's only $15 million a season anyway. We should be willing to stretch for Jeffers and do what several other posters have suggested, have him as the primary Catcher until either Lackey or Tait is ready, then move him to a 1B/DH/backup C role. Will we be overpaying for that role when he is 33 at the end of a four year deal that starts in his age 30 season? Probably. That's the price of admission, Some team or more likely many teams will be willing to pay that price. I think we will be lucky to trade Joe Ryan for someone the quality of Michael Busch. Ryan is a very good pitcher when he pitches. The problem is he's only pitched over 150 innings a year twice in the last five, topping out at 171, and he had a 6.34 ERA after July 24 this year. His meltdown the second half this year is frankly fairly similar to last year and raises real questions about his durability. That's why also suggested trading him to the Dodgers for a guy like Dalton Rushing since the Dodgers are willing to take guys who only pitch two thirds of it season, stack them up seven deep, and have a quality rotation for the playoffs. He also has only one year of arbitration left and then is an unrestricted free agent. It has been reported that he wants something like a seven year, $210 million contract when he hits free agency. He has value this off-season, but not overwhelming value. Maybe it's better to trade him for a prospect package like we were offered at the trade deadline. Well, hopefully better than the packages we were reportedly offered at the trade deadline this year, all of which seemed pretty weak. But I'm hoping we can get a decent middle of the order bat like Busch or even Samuel Basilio from the Orioles. We might have to include a prospect though to make that happen. Finally, my thought on trading Lewis to the Angels is a trade of change of scenery candidates with talent. Grayson Rodriguez has a lot of talent and throws in the upper 90s, but he's had trouble harnessing his ability for the Angels. The Angels need a third baseman desperately. Lewis has talent but hasn't really harnessed it for the Twins the last three years. Ballesteros is just kind of a throw in so we have a right-handed bat, I'd be fine with a couple of their other young players/ prospects instead like Sam Bachman for the bullpen or someone like that. The main key is to trade Lewis while he still has some value because he will have no value in another season if he hits next year like he did this year or even like he did in 2024 or 2025. I'm afraid two torn ACLs may have sapped his athleticism to the point where he can't come back. I do think he has some trade value this off-season if we're willing to take on kind of a similar situation in return for him; a talented player who is not been able to yet put it together for another team but for whom there is still some hope. That's the background to my overall thinking. Hope that helps.

Last thought as I avoid doing work today. Here's the steps and lineup/roster: Trades - Ryan and 15-20 prospect to Cubs for Michael Busch. Ober for A ball lottery ticket. Lewis to Angels for Moises Ballesteros and Grayson Rodriguez. FA singings - Jeffers, 4 years, $68-75M. Minter, 2 years $18-22M. Lopez, 4 years, $90-110M. Bell goes elsewhere. Lineup (in rough batting order) - Keaschall (OF/DH), Buxton (OF/DH). Busch (IB), Jeffers (C), Lee (3B), Clemens (2B), Culpepper (SS), two of EmRod, Jenkins, Ballesteros (DH/OF). balance out the 7-9 spots with Culpepper to avoid two LH hitters back to back. Bench - 1 of EmRod, Jenkins, Ballesteros (DH/OF), Martin (OF/2B), Caratini (C), Kriedler or Ross (UTL IF), one of Roden, Jackson, or the Kriedler/Ross loser. Rotation - Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp, Kremer, Matthews (Abel, Rojas, Grayson Rodriquez, Bohorquez, and either CJ Culpepper or Ryan Gallagher the AAA rotation pitching starters workloads to be ready for the inevitable injuries/non-performance issues). Bullpen - Hoffman (late inning/closer), Gomez (late inning/closer), Minter (late inning/closer), Morris (late inning/closer), Banda (2nd LH), David Festa (late inning/closer), Nance (middle relief), one of Funderburk, Peredes, Adams, Sands, Acton - the other 4 plus Anderson, Orze, Raya, and either Culpepper or Gallagher in the AAA BP as depth).

I know we all kind of want to snicker at this given the Twins history but NashvilleTwin has exactly the right answer. Jeffers is likely to get a 3 or 4 year deal, probably 4, $17-20M AAV is probably the sweet spot. We need the bat in '27 and '28 and the prospect timeline is probably at least 2 years out. He would be the perfect signing if the new CBA includes a salary floor combined with some kind of NBA style cap (the union will never go for a hard cap). Here's my thought for the off season. Re-sign Jeffers, 4 years $68-75M. Re-sign Lopez for 4 years $90-100M. He wants to stay and is at a low leverage point coming off TJ. Re-sign Minter, 2 years, $18-20M. Trade Larnach for prospects, be willing to throw in an A or AA back end of the top 30 guy to get a better prospect, middle infielder preferred. Trade Ryan for a projectable middle of the order bat. I would target Michael Busch of the Cubs or Samuel Basilio of the Orioles in a 1-1 trade although the Twins might need to add a 15-30 prospect to balance out the control timelines. Another thought would be to trade Ryan to Boston for Tristan Casas (risky because coming off injury) and either Connelly Early or Allan Castro plus. To increase the possibility of Ryan re-signing and thus his trade value, talk to the California teams about trading him for Bryce Eldridge (SF), Dalton Rushing (Dodgers), or maybe to the Angels for a package of Christian Moore (2B, 22 years old), Grayson Rodriguez, and a lower level guy. Trade Lewis back home to the Angels as the classic change of scenery candidate for an upside package like Grayson Rodriguez or George Klassen plus Moises Ballesteros. That's it. No signing averageish vets to fill holes. Drop either Ober or Kremer by trading them for a prospect, start at least two of Prielipp, Matthews, Abel, and Rojas in the #4 and #5 rotation holes (all 4 will get starts with injuries in 2027), and play Keaschall, Culpepper, EmRod, Jenkins, and Lee every day. Pick the rebuilding around current core lane and commit to it.

I think there is a way to look at this systematically and get to the conclusion that while we have the complementary pieces, we're missing the tentpole pieces necessary to be the true contender. If you start with what I think is a realistic premise that Larnach and Ryan will be traded in the off-season and will at most it bring back one capable MLB bat that could potentially hit the middle of the order, there really isn't a lot of ambiguity. The only question marks are will we re-sign Lopez, who I sense wants to stay and would thus be within budget, and will Jeffers somehow re-sign with the team. I think the latter is unlikely but I still hold out hope. Now you know what you have and you can figure out the rest. Here's what we have: Lineup - we have 1-3 hole hitters in Keaschall, Buxton, and maybe Culpepper, 6 and 7 hole hitters in Lee and Clemens, and some young guys who can fill out the backend of the lineup. What we don't have our two legitimate middle of the order bats that can hit 4 and 5. Maybe we can get one out of a Ryan trade or re-sign Jeffers for one of those spots but we don't have those guys on the roster at the moment. We have openings at 1B, C, DH, and possibly LF. Starters - We have good candidates for spots 2-5 in a solid rotation and at least a little depth. We do not have a number one starter whether or not Ryan stays (he's more of a solid 2/strong 3) and I think Ryan is gone anyway. I'm hoping we use a trade of him to either fill one of the holes in the lineup or augment the bullpen. Bullpen - We have three pretty good late inning options, four if Minter comes back, and a couple of decent middle inning guys. We also have a lot of young arms that could potentially be somewhere in the 6 – 8 spots in a good bullpen and could graduate over the course of the year to a higher spot. Same thing here though; we need that dominant bullpen arm and we don't have it. So while I agree we don't need a full rebuild in the sense of getting rid of everybody and starting over, I think were at least 4 guys away from a truly competitive team and we're missing the hardest 4 guys to find - 2 middle of the order bats, a #1 starter, and a dominant late inning arm. We can either try to get those as free agents or in trades, or we can simply go in missing those spots, promote young players and hope they develop over 2027 to fill all or some of those holes for 2028 and then try to fill holes. What we can't do or shouldn't do is what we've done in the past – find average to slightly above average guys, try to stretch them into roles they can't really fill (think Josh Bell as your #4 hitter, or Gomez as your dominant closer), all in an attempt to win 80 – 85 games and sneak into the playoffs. That's just a recipe continued mediocrity, rinse and repeat. My view is we pick the "rebuild" Lane, not the "reload" Lane. That means trading Larnach, re–signing one of Lopez and Ryan and trading the other for hopefully a strong bat, and promoting younger players at the expense of averageish veterans. To me that means you can't keep both Ober and Kremer, keep one at most, play Keaschall, Lee, and Culpepper every day, and keep at least one of EmRod, Jenkins and Roden playing every day. Choose two of Prielipp, Matthews, Abel and Rojas to be the #4 and #5 starters behind Lopez, Bradley and Ober or Kremer, and I would think about transitioning one of them into the bullpen along with Festa if he's healthy unless we can pick up some good relievers. I'd advocate playing one of the young catching prospects but I just don't think anyone will be ready until late 2027 at the earliest. I think next year is for taking the next step, but that next step doesn't really mean true contention. It really means being competitive within a fairly weak division and possibly competitive for a backend playoff spot as you build towards an contention window in hopefully 2028 – 2030.

Absolutely a no-brainer, at least on paper. Cody, do you have some inside info from the team that suggest they aren't going to give Jeffers the QO?

This group has some solid talent but no elite talent. Sounds absolutely right to me. We are missing the tentpole players - the #3 and #4 hitter, a real #1 starter, and an ace reliever. We have some decent to good complimentary players in Lee (should be hitting 6), Clemens (7), Lopez (#2 starter), Ryan (#3), and 3-4 solid bullpen arms. We also have 2 guys who could break out into the elite tier and are very likely to at least be solid in Keashall (hits #1), and Culpepper (#2). So how do we get that middle of the order bat we need, etc.? I think we have to trade Ryan and hope to get a real middle of the order bat. That wasn't available at the trade deadline, all you get then is prospects. We then need to re-sign Jeffers, re-sign Minter and hope Keaschall, plus two of Prielipp, Abel, and Rojas make huge strides forward. We need to play EmRod and maybe Jenkins, and if not Roden, every day to develop. It's still not enough to truly compete but might get us to 85-88 wins and be a springboard to 2028. We do need to move on from guys who are nice role guys but don't move the ball forward. Trade Larnach for prospects and keep one of Ober or Kremer and trade the other. Lewis is a tough one since he has no trade value but don't hand him a spot. Trade Wallner if anyone will give up something for him, otherwise release him. I'd say trade Caratini but who catches if we don't keep Jeffers? Bottom line, pick a lane. I say pick the "rebuild" lane, not the "reload" lane. Don't sign veteran OFs ho can't hit third or fourth, play EmRod and Jenkins. Don't sign middle relivers, pitch Funderburk, Acton, Adams, Raya, and the 6th and 7th starters in the BP. Make sure that at least 2 of Prielipp, Matthews, Rojas, and Abel are getting the ball every 5th day. Commit to a new core. this one didn't work out.

This is far and away the best answer. By the way, this assumes that both EmRod and Jenkins are ready to play every day from April next year. So far, EmRod looks like a possible, Jenkins looks like a not yet. I think it's way too early to go on the assumption that both of those 2 will even break camp with the team, much less play every day. I know I'm going to get pilloried by the "play the kids, they were good in the Minors" crowd, but my guess is that EmRod starts the season with the Twins since he has no options, plays RF most days and CF when Buxton sits or DHs, with Keaschjal in LF and Roden and Martin on the bench. If you look at the hitting stats and the eye test at the plate, Roden has far outperformed Jenkins so far. Jenkins may not be ready at age 21. He may start the season as the St. Paul CF waiting for the inevitable Buxton injury or underperformance by Roden or EmRod for his next chance.

While I agree with a lot of this and generally respect your opinion, I can't understand why everyone is so down on Keaschall. He is our best hitter, Why on earth would we relegate him to a 4th OF spot on a team that couldn't score enough runs to be competitive in the second half? Write this down. In Pen. Absent injury Keaschall will start next year in a corner OF spot and most likely lead off if he doesn't move to the 3 hole. He's 23 and probably the best non-Buxton athlete on the team. He can learn to play a decent LF or RF. It's bat waaaaay over glove in the corner OF. It's hard to take anyone's lineup projection seriously that doesn't have Keaschall in a corner OF spot hitting in one of the top 3 spots. I do generally agree with the rest of your post, though. We need 4 guys -two middle of the order bats, a top of rotation starter, and a legit late inning arm. Re-signing Jeffers and Lopez returning in 2023/2024 form would help but Jeffers is a #5 hitter and Lopez is not a #1 starter. I'm hoping they trade Ryan and are willing to take on salary to get that #3 or #4 bat. IB, 2B, DH, LF, and C if Jeffers leaves are all open. Minter could be the late inning guy if he'll stay. I'd be willing to pay Freddy Peralta real money to join a Lopez/Bradly top 3 starters with Prelipp the #4 and real talent out there fighting for #5 (my money is on Abel or Rojas). Matthews could really lengthen the bullpen and rotation as a swing man/ long man. Add a legit #3 hitter to Keaschall, Culpepper in the top 3, put Jeffers, Lee, and Clemens in the 5-7 holes, add the traditional 80-100 games of Buxton and now the lineup looks legit. EmRod, Roden. and Jenkins fight it out for the open OF spot/ LH 4th/5th OF that can play CF, with Martin as the RH hitting 4th/5th OF, and Kriedler as the glove first UTL. You still have room for a bat first guy. Hire Ron Washington to teach Clemens to be more than just an average 2B with the glove and maybe to teach Larnach 1B if we can't get anyone else. I think Lewis may be gone or in a platoon at 1B. We have the complimentary pieces to have a good team in 2027. We need the tent poles. Jenkins and/or EmRod and/or GG, etc. are NOT those guys in 2027 and probably not in 2028 on the hitting side and neither Lopez not Ryan is that guy on the pitching side. We need to go out and get them.

You’re right about Buxton. The fact that Lewis isn’t blocking anyone is a problem. We need better 1B option. I don’t understand why people want to trade Keaschall. He is our best hitter, full stop, and part of the foundation for the next competitive team.

I think this is the right approach, but I would add 4 names to the guaranteed list - Culpepper, Hoffman, Morris, Lopez - plus 3 guys in the probable category - Caratini, Funderburk, Prielipp. That’s it. Basically 5 position players, 3 starting pitchers, 3 relievers guaranteed, 1 more of each in the probably group. Lot of work to do here.

I wish it would be 4/$60M. If I'm the Twins I get that done in a heartbeat. Jeffers will 6et at least 4/$70-75M, probably 4/$80M.

Arguments about WAR aside, this points out the Twins biggest problem in putting together a truly competitive roster for 2027. We have the complimentary players, but we don't have the "tentpole" stars around which to array those players. Put differently, we are really only short about 4 Players - a #3 and #4 bat in the lineup, and true #1 starter, and a shutdown closer. You know, the 4 most difficult things to find. If you think about the lineup and place each starter where they belong in a competitive lineup, here's what you get IMHO: 3 guys who can hit #1 or #2 (Keaschall, a healthy Buxton, Culpepper) 1 guy who can hit #5 (Jeffers, and he's likely leaving) 3 guys who can hit # 6 or #7 (Lee, Clemens, Larnach (only vs. RH pitching, unplayable vs. LH, and also probably gone in 2027)) Guys who should hit #8 or #9 (Lewis, Caratini, Jenkins, Martin, Kriedler, etc.) It's little wonder the lineup is so inconsistent. It doesn't work to hit guys who should hit 6 and 7 in the 2-4 holes. It's also hard to see improvement from this group to fill those holes. Maybe Keaschall could hit #3 behind a Buxton/Culpepper start but what happens when Buck gets hurt again or if he can't play after the surgery? The same thing applies to the starting staff. Lopez and Ryan are both very good #2 starters but neither is really a #1 and both get hurt a lot. Gomez has been a great closer at 22-22 in saves, but do we really think that will continue? Who knows. Who do you fix this? I don't know that you can but here's what I would try. Find out the market for Ryan. If you can trade him for a true controllable #3 or #4 hitter, do it even of you have to include a quality prospect or take on a multiyear contract. Don't trade him for guys how might someday be #3 or #4 hitters but aren't yet unless that's all you can get. He wants big money and more importantly wants to go back to California so trade him this off season. Try to re-sign Jeffers, even if you have to give him 4 years. He's the unquestioned starter the next 2 years anyway since Lackey and Tait, et. al. are at least that far away, and can be in a time share years 3 and 4. Try to sign a quality FA 2B, 1B, or LF that can hit in the middle of the order. On the pitching side, I think we have to roll with the rotation as is (unless Freddy Peralta wants to come) and hope guys take a step forward so we have a solid rotation of #2-#4 starters that carries us through. Scour the FA market for another late inning arm, preferably a LH. Frankly, AJ Minter could be that guy and Banda replaces Rogers. Do that and get some injury luck and we could have a 90 win team. We're not too far off of a truly competitive roster but just running it back isn't likely to get us there. Time for Tom to put his money where his mouth is.

I'd agree with you if I thought you were right about the contract Jeffers likely receives. I just think you're low on years and way low on money. 3 years, $42M with a $16M option is a no brainier for the Twins to offer and I think they will offer at least that, if not more. The problem is I think it is much more likely that he will sign for four years and at least $70 million, maybe as high as $80 million. Frankly, I would offer him three years at an AAV of $20M per, particularly given the lack of other big contracts on the roster. By the way, I think you're right that Ryan doesn't want to stay so he should be traded and Lopez does want to stay so he should be retained by another three or four year deal. I understand if you think those numbers are high for Jeffers, but I suspect that's because you're not thinking about it the way the big money clubs think about contracts. I suspect you are thinking about this potential contract in the sense of what would we be paying in the future versus what we would be getting his age 33 or 34 season. As someone who lives in LA, I can tell you that's not the way the Dodgers, or the Yankees< Red Sox, Braves, etc., think about contracts. They enter into these long-term deals knowing that the last year or two are likely to be over pays or even situations where the player has effectively no value due to injury or age. They make those offers because that's the price of getting the player in his prime years so they think about a four year $80 million deal for Ryan Jeffers as really paying $80 million for three of those four years, or maybe even two, knowing at least one of those years will be a significant overpay. That's what's having a productive farm system plus additional cash allows you to do; it allows you to overpay certain parts of your roster because you have the extra money and you have a pipeline of young talent to keep your costs down on other parts of your roster. That's the real advantage of being the Dodgers, for example. It's not that you can pay more for prime years, it's that you have the freedom to overpay for down years without it affecting the rest of your roster. I hope I'm wrong. I hope that the Twins extend the Q0, then make a three year $42M-$48M offer with a $16 million fourth-year option and a $2 million buyout, and that Jeffers accepts either the QO or the offer. I just don't think that's gonna happen. I think it's almost a certainty that he will get more than $50 million and that he's likely to get a four year deal from another club. If I'm right, extending the Q0 is a no-brainer and I expect the Twins to do so and collect the CB-A comp pick.

I thank this is probably the correct take. I don't doubt that the Twins received offers for Jeffers at the trade deadline. If they were the offers reported in the press like Volpe and Doval from the Yankees, or even the prospect package of Hess and LaLane, the Twins were better off to reject the offers, play out the chance to sneak into the playoffs, and give the QO to get the draft choice. They are likely to get a better player and gave themselves a chance this year. Now, if they don't extend the QO one has to wonder if they really are Morons.