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The Minnesota Twins had some of the best pitching in MLB this past season. The pitching core carried the team throughout the season, and managed to keep the team around .500 even when the bats weren’t showing up. Now, they need a new core. Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports This past week, the club lost two of its most valuable assets on the pitching staff, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. Both pitchers had impressive seasons, considering Maeda was returning after an 18-month recovery from Tommy John surgery in 2021. The club has suffered so long without good pitching, so why would the front office allow such difficult departures? Because it was a part of the plan all along. There have been articles and rumors about the Twins wanting to cut a large chunk of their payroll, and even with keeping Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, the Twin's front office right now has an $88-million dollar payroll, a far cry from the 2023 $154-million Opening Day figure. The front office was well aware that three things would happen: They were going to lose Gray and Maeda, they would need more pitching, and they would need to trade some pieces to obtain new arms. Enter the club options of Polanco and Kepler. The Twins first picked up the options for Polanco ($10 million) and Kepler ($10.5 million), two of the Twins' cornerstone players and a fan-favorite duo. Kepler and Polanco have been a part of the Twins organization for 14 seasons, both signing as international free agents from Germany and the Dominican Republic, respectively. They were roommates in spring training for the 2010 season, forming what has proved to be an unbreakable bond. Naturally, when their options were picked up, fans were relieved and excited, but that’s not the end of the story. Polanco and Kepler are huge trade pieces for the Twins. Both players had their ups and downs in 2023. There are reasons why each is an imperfect fit for the 2024 team, but they each have considerable trade value. Kepler played the entire season, starting slowly in the first half, then finding his stride after the All-Star break. He had his best season since 2019, with 24 homers and a .260/.332/.484 line. Kepler hit in the second half of the season like he knew his job was in jeopardy and he’s still one of the best defensive right fielders in the league, but is it enough? Unlike the potential in the infield, the Twins don’t have much immediate help coming in the way of outfielders. With Trevor Larnach being the other option for right field, trading away Kepler would be difficult to justify. The best option would be to bring in someone who would become a full-time outfielder for years to come and be ready to release Kepler after the 2024 season. The infield has some of the best players, and while Polanco is a fantastic, versatile player and a switch-hitter, the club has a lot of young talent that stepped up for the consistently injured veterans--and there is still more at Triple-A St. Paul. Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, both of whom have been improving and showing why they should get their shot in 2024, are knocking on the door. Polanco only played 80 games in the 2023 season due to a long and strenuous battle with injury, but when he was in the game, he produced at the plate and was able to cover second base and the hot corner. Polanco has another club option for 2025, worth $12.5 million with a $750,000 buyout. So, what’s out there that would allow the Twins to get value for Polanco and not to miss Kepler after his deal is up? Only a few pieces are needed to boost the Twins to where they are looking to be, and they don’t have to go far to find that talent. The Brewers have a lot of talent in their farm system, and some that have seen MLB time and who helped them reach the postseason in 2023. A small-market team with a surfeit of both relief pitchers and outfielders, they make perfect suitors. Based on the Twins’ need to replace so many high-quality innings, someone like Bryse Wilson, a rubber-armed long reliever, would be an excellent acquisition. Wilson, a righty who will turn 26 years old this month, has been in the league since 2018, having been drafted in 2016 by the Braves. He spent his formative years in Atlanta before being traded to Pittsburgh, who flipped him to Milwaukee last winter for a minimal return. Last season, Wilson pitched 76 2/3 innings, with six wins and no losses. One of his best games was a 10-6 win over the Padres late in August, in which he worked four scoreless innings of emergency long relief and struck out four, allowing only three baserunners. Wilson ended his season with some of the best numbers of his career: a 2.58 ERA, a1.10 WHIP, a 4.17 FIP. He’ll make around $1.5 million in his first trip through arbitration in 2024, but he’s a decent bargain at that price. Wilson needn’t be the centerpiece of a trade, though. Joey Wiemer, a loose cannon at the plate and in the outfield, still has a lot of potential and could be a huge acquisition. Weimer is a really strong hitter, but he struggled a lot throughout the season. Looking at his numbers, his best month at the plate was in June (.233/.337/.512) and that gives a small glimpse into what kind of player he is. Even with the poor numbers in July and August, Wiemer crushed it against lefties (.267/.298/.517) through the whole season, which is a huge asset to the lineup. He also has outstanding defensive metrics, with five total Defensive Runs Saved in 1,026 innings as a rookie, showing that he has room to grow offensively and defensively with plenty of years left to play. The Brewers’ surplus of young outfielders may be the blessing the Twins seek. With Kepler being a free agent next year, being 31 years old, and the unknown of Buxton, contributing to the overall inconsistency of the outfield, a player like Weimer could solve many problems for the team. Over at Brewer Fanatic, writer Ryan Pollak even made the case Thursday afternoon that Wiemer will become trade bait. One pipe dream would be to acquire Corbin Burnes in a trade for Polanco. There is still uncertainty as to whether the Brewers are looking to trade Burnes, but based on the information out there, it would take at least $250 million for the Brewers to retain him in free agency after 2024. He’ll make in excess of $15 million via arbitration in 2024, an onerous amount for the Brewers at their expected payroll level The Twins could “rent” him for a year, but the Brewers know what he’s worth, and the package for Burnes would likely include a lot more than Polanco, such as the Twins’ 2024 competitive-balance draft pick or prospects. The front office has been known to shock the fan base in the offseason, so they could shock us again, but it’s more than likely that the Twins would rather hold onto the prospects and trade for controllable assets that would provide long-term solutions, like Wilson and Wiemer. With so many things up in the air, it’s really hard to say which way the Twins front office will go, but one thing for sure is to use Polanco and/or Kepler as trade pieces at some point to get the pitching that they need. It’s all part of the plan. View full article

At this point, the Minnesota Twins have yet to make a significant move this offseason. We have heard plenty about the payroll sliding backward, but does that have anything to do with the front office opting against bringing back Sonny Gray or Kenta Maeda? Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports Heading into the winter, Derek Falvey’s shopping list was expected to include a right-handed bat, a center fielder, and a starting pitcher. That last item on the list could be the most important, after Rocco Baldelli’s club had one of the better groups in the game a season ago. Minnesota still has depth, but Pablo Lopez will be looking for a running mate. Both Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray threw substantial innings for the Twins last season. The latter finished runner-up to Gerrit Cole for the American League Cy Young award. That reflected how good of a season he had and indicated the payday he would command from any potential suitor. While Maeda didn’t have the same tier of results, he fared well, and deals for pitchers like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson paved a path for him to benefit financially. So why didn’t the Twins show a greater desire to retain either of their departing starters? That answer is multi-faceted, but it isn’t exactly complicated. This front office has shied away from paying arms in free agency. That’s a logical stance when you understand that you’re getting someone else’s leftovers. Every free agent is hitting the market because their former employer allowed them to do so, and they are likely doing so at what baseball calls an advanced age. The Twins, under Falvey, have never spent more than $20 million on a starting pitcher, and that was a two-year deal for Michael Pineda that allowed him to bide his time during rehab from Tommy John surgery. Expecting them to change course on that process with Maeda (as he enters his late 30s) or Gray (as he’s paid more based on recent performance) never seemed like a good bet. Realistically, the Twins didn’t retain the services of either Gray or Maeda because the length of each deal wouldn’t make sense. Maeda finally landed a deal that wasn’t full of incentives, and he’ll make a base salary nearly the same as the eight-year deal he signed when coming over from Japan. A total guarantee of $24 million didn’t need to be prohibitive for Minnesota, but their focus was on Maeda being a one-year arm for them, if he was to be back at all. Scott Boras was set on finding at least a two-year deal, and with the Tigers having more of a need, they were the team that bit. Regarding Gray, Minnesota was interested in making a short-term deal. They proved the earnestness of that sentiment by making the Qualifying Offer. Of course, Gray would never accept that one-year pact, so it was a moot point, but the Twins would have gladly paid $25 million for a season or two of his services. The problem is that the market was always going to give Gray a third year, and Minnesota being interested in that seemed like a non-starter. He hasn’t been the most durable arm throughout his career, and it’s unlikely that will change for the better as he ages. St. Louis had to find their ace, and pairing talent with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt before it got too late was necessary. Now, the front office is tasked with replacing the innings and starts made by both Maeda and Gray. They went into the offseason assuming that would be the case, and now it has become a reality. That the Twins will stand pat remains highly unlikely, and expecting them to add someone like Dylan Bundy, J.A. Happ, or Matt Shoemaker doesn’t seem realistic, either. They are already exploring the trade market, and it seems most likely that they will make their addition that way. Whom they land remains uncertain, but plenty of fine candidates are out there. After a successful run in 2023, it may have been fun to run it back. A similar outcome with everyone repeating success or performing at a higher level wouldn't have been probable, though, and Minnesota must carve a new path toward more optimal results. Maeda was a fun way to get involved in the Mookie Betts excitement with the Dodgers, and acquiring Gray was a well-executed move that has come full circle. It’s okay to be sad that both are gone, while understanding that the right decision was made. View full article

After taking a week off for Thanksgiving, JD and Jeremy are back to talk about updated Top 30s and other things that have been happening in the baseball world. A big-time prospect is considering signing a record-breaking extension, an All-Star pitcher is on the move in free agency and the Winter Meetings are quickly approaching. 0:00 Intro 2:40 Will Jackson Chourio sign an extension? 9:50 Sonny Gray to the Cardinals and what that means for the Twins and their draft. The addition of another pick, which should come around #33, will be a boon to the team's bonus pool. 23:11 MLB Pipeline Top 30 updates 24:20 Brewers 31:16 Cubs 42:37 Twins 50:00 Listener Questions 57:22 What's Next? You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, leaving us a positive review and five star rating at iTunes or Spotify, retweeting show related content on Twitter, and subscribing to the Twins Daily YouTube page. You can follow us @DTS_POD1, @J_D_Cameron, @Jeremynygaard, and @TheodoreTollef1 on Twitter. Send us your prospect and draft related questions for our next episode. Find Destination: The Show on all major podcast platforms including Spotify, iTunes, iHeartRadio and Amazon Music. The show is available on Libsyn, our podcasting platform, in addition to YouTube. View full article

Two formulations have the lion's share of the market for Wins Above Replacement player metrics on the baseball internet. There's a third robust model out there, though, and studying it can help us see why teams' choices sometimes defy the orthodoxy prescribed by the first two. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Though no longer the top destination for statistically-inclined baseball fans online, Baseball Prospectus was the first site to publish and maintain what we now know as WAR--though they have always called it WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), and continue to do so. They now have a suite of rigorously-derived, state-of-the-art metrics designed to quantify each player's contributions within pitching (Deserved Run Average, or DRA), hitting (Deserved Runs Created, or DRC), and fielding (Defensive Runs Prevented, or DRP). Unlike (for instance) Baseball Reference's and FanGraphs's offensive stats, DRC (and its well-adjusted cousin, DRC+) does not rely solely on actual results, adjusted for league and park factors. Unlike either other site's pitching value estimators, DRA (and DRA-) doesn't focus on actual runs allowed or on fielding-independent pitching (FIP). Unlike Statcast-fueled expected statistics you can find on Baseball Savant, none of these stats are directly adjusted based on the difference between actual outcomes and the average ones on similar batted balls (or opponents' batted balls). Instead, these stats take a more granular, less dogmatic approach. Every plate appearance is accounted for in full. Thus, the framework accounts for the level of opposition and the friendliness of the circumstance in every opportunity being evaluated. This can lead to numbers that deviate sharply from what we saw actually happen, and that always makes fans uneasy, but again, teams sometimes make choices we consider inscrutable. It's by digging deeper into the data and seeing when a player's latent talent and actual contribution might differ from their surface-level production that we can start to explain (or even anticipate) those seemingly peculiar calls. Let's look at some places where the Twins' D-suite numbers and Baseball Prospectus WARP tell an importantly different story than the one more widely-embraced stats have been telling. View full article

As first reported by Jon Heyman, then confirmed by Ken Rosenthal, the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up is a Twin no more. There's an almost golden lining to the cloud, though. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports (Thankfully, Ken Rosenthal is here to cool our senses and establish order, because how comfortable were we with Heyman as the tip of the spear?) Following a tremendous season that saw him finish as the runner-up to Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young, Gray spoke glowingly about Minnesota, emphasizing in a rare public plea that money isn’t the only factor in his decision-making process. Comfort mattered, too, and Minnesota offers that in a unique way. The Twins spun a different tale. Much of their vernacular focused on what Gray had done, and their gratitude for his veteran savvy and excellent pitching. In the moment, this seemed like pretty typical posturing. Recent reporting regarding Minnesota’s future financials revealed the team was dead serious in their callousness. Today, Gray’s exit will become final. His time with the Twins will go down as the best amongst the four teams for whom he’s pitched. Gray spread a 2.90 ERA over 303 ⅔ frames in two seasons, easily making him one of the best traded-for starters this side of Dean Chance. Among all pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched since the beginning of 2022, only Blake Snell and Justin Verlander beat Gray in ERA. He also immortalized himself in recent Twins playoff history, winning the series-clinching game against Toronto with an unforgettable pickoff of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to end his day. Because the team slapped Gray with the Qualifying Offer, the terms of his new deal will hand Minnesota a compensatory pick right after the first round in 2024. That return will soothe the loss of Chase Petty, who was a late first-round pick himself. It isn’t a perfect one-for-one—especially as Petty has worked his way to Double A hiccup-free in the Reds system—but dropping back a few spots in the draft for almost two full years of elite pitching remains an excellent deal. The Twins deserve a lot of credit for their foresight. They’ll need that wisdom again as Gray's exit—in combination with Kenta Maeda signing with Detroit—leaves a mangled 2024 rotation to deal with. Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are well-entrenched incumbents, but Chris Paddack (who hasn’t come close to his rookie-year career high of 140 ⅔ innings in four years) and Louie Varland (who pitched much better out of the bullpen in 2023) leave the back end feeling a bit shaky and untrustworthy. Sure, that describes most team’s fourth and fifth starter situations, but Minnesota would probably like to improve their depth, lest an untimely injury forces David Festa into a premature support role. Broadly speaking, the team has two options: they could acquire a top-tier starter like Corbin Burnes or Logan Gilbert, thickening their bunch at the top of the rotation at the cost of serious prospect capital. The upside in wielding another great starter is obvious, but such a deal would also protect them from the chaos and uncertainty involved in waiting until the trade deadline to make a move, where teams can hike up prices, and the only mercy is for those with stable elbows. Minnesota tried this route once with Tyler Mahle, which may push them to act now. They could also go the innings-eater route. Acquiring a Lucas Giolito or Mike Clevinger isn’t sexy, but it would at least give them extra protection if the ligament gods frown upon the team on any given day next year. This plan places pressure on Ryan shedding his gopher-ball habit—something no statistician or qualified religious figure has been able to correctly speak to the potential of. In the end, the goal should be to knock Varland into the same role Ober occupied in 2023. Either way, the team has plenty of work ahead. That work won’t reach the surface until late December or January—this is Derek Falvey we’re talking about here—but it’ll help define the move-making possible under the self-imposed economic restraints already affecting their structure. We shall see what path they take. View full article

Sonny Gray is reportedly heading to St. Louis on a three-year, $75-million deal with the Cardinals. What is the impact on the Twins' 2024 Draft bonus pool? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports The St. Louis Cardinals are expected to finalize a deal with free agent right-hander Sonny Gray today, according to several prominent national reports. Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, it's a three-year pact worth $75 million. While Gray’s departure leaves a significant void in the Twins' 2024 rotation, it also has implications for the 2024 MLB draft. Let’s dig in. All MLB organizations are entitled to a compensatory pick if a player who received and rejected the qualifying offer signs elsewhere. If the team losing the player is a revenue sharing recipient (the Twins are) and the player signs for more than $50 million, the comp pick awarded falls between the end of the first round and Competitive Balance Round A. The upshot for the Twins will be an additional pick in the 30-40 range, worth anywhere from $2.2-2.7 million. The pick is likely to be 33rd overall, worth approximately $2.5 million in 2023. This may seem like a relatively small financial boon for the Twins, but it is significant. In 2023, Minnesota had the fifth-largest draft pool, at $14.3 million. In 2024, the Twins will have a significantly smaller figure to play with (although they will receive an additional Competitive Balance pick in either Round A or Round B, situated just before the second or the third round). It’s likely that the additional dollars received from Gray departing for St. Louis will add 15-20 percent to their 2024 bonus pool--all the more significant in a weaker draft class than 2023's. Additionally, the Gray compensation pick allows the Twins greater flexibility this offseason with self-imposed payroll limits in mind. Having secured a pick just outside the first round, Minnesota could look to include their Competitive Balance pick in a trade for rotation help. Although such moves remain unusual, they're allowed under the rules, and one or two of those picks typically changes hands each year. A comp pick has value far beyond the dollar amount tied to it, and could sweeten any potential trade as the Twins look to replace Gray's production. There are a number of as-yet undetermined factors that will finalize the 2024 draft order, including Prospect Promotion Incentive picks, other qualifying-offer comp picks, and teams falling in the draft due to surpassing the third luxury tax threshold. After several strong drafts in recent seasons, the Twins' acquisition of Gray has proven particularly savvy. His impact on the field was significant. His value to the organization will outlive his time in it. View full article

Let's talk trades! An idea I submitted for Twins Daily's Offseason Handbook was acquiring Mitch Keller of the Pirates for a package of Matt Wallner and David Festa. Here's a discussion on why I like Keller as a trade target, whether this offer would be likely to get him on the Twins and a look at another similar trade idea offered by another Twins Daily contributor. View full video

The hot stove is heating up, and players are available on the trade block for the right price. How much trust should we place in the Twins trading prospects for MLB talent? Let’s turn to history for the answer. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports (photo of Steven Cruz) No team wins every trade, but competitive teams typically win more than they lose. Teams that can leverage offseason trades, instead of free agency, to fill out their roster are often rewarded with less monetarily expensive players, which can benefit a team like the Twins, whose payroll going into 2024 is uncertain. To aid you in determining how much faith to put in the current Twins front office, I have combed through every trade that the Twins have made since October 2016 in which the Twins traded away a prospect for a ready-made MLB player. You can make your own judgment. Below, I’ve listed every trade that could be considered a "Buy" over the offseason. Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 15th, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn’t available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. For an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal, let’s skip to the 2022 Sonny Gray trade. Statistically, the Twins won the trade. Gray was good for 7.7 bWAR and was the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up. However, Chase Petty, a former first-round pick, still has time to accrue value for Cincinnati, so we can’t definitively close the book on that trade yet. Without further ado, here’s my subjective order, from best to worst. 2/18/18: Minnesota acquires Jake Odorizzi (337.0 IP, 107 ERA+, 4.9 bWAR) from Tampa Bay for Jermaine Palacios (did not reach Tampa Bay), +4.9 bWAR for Minnesota. For quite some time, this trade was the undisputed crown jewel of this era of Twins baseball. Odorizzi sat in the front half of three Minnesota pitching rotations between 2018 and 2020, providing consistent performance, though he was not a star. Palacios never reached the majors with Tampa but came back as a minor-league free agent and debuted with Minnesota in 2022. 3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Sonny Gray (303.2 IP, 142 ERA+, 7.7 bWAR), Francis Peguero (did not reach Minnesota) from Cincinnati for Chase Petty* (has not reached Cincinnati), +7.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Looking to shore up a rotation with several holes, Minnesota traded future value in Petty for present value in Gray, effectively trading a pitcher now for a pitcher tomorrow. Gray led the staff for two years and finished second in the AL Cy Young in 2023. Peguero was released following the 2023 season. Petty had been drafted in the first round just months before and has impressed in the low minors thus far. As the book is still out on Petty, I’m keeping Odorizzi in the top spot. 3/27/23: Minnesota acquires Michael A. Taylor (388 PA, 94 OPS+, 1.9 bWAR) from Kansas City for Evan Sisk (has not reached Kansas City), Steven Cruz (12.2 IP, 91 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR), +1.9 bWAR for Minnesota. Taylor served as the everyday centerfielder in 2023, given injuries to both Byron Buxton and Nick Gordon. The Gold Glove centerfielder performed as expected defensively and showed some pop, though his bat has been mediocre overall. Cruz debuted for Kansas City in 2023, and Sisk finished the year at AAA. 11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Kyle Farmer (369 PA, 98 OPS+, 1.7 bWAR) from Cincinnati for Casey Legumina (13.2 IP, 82 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR), +1.8 bWAR for Minnesota. Without a starting-caliber shortstop (before the Carlos Correa signing), the Twins traded for Farmer. He’s since started games at second, third, and short—and seen time at first base and left field—as the top bench infielder in 2023 and is a platoon bat versus lefties. He was tendered a contract for 2024. Legumina had not debuted at the time of the trade - he had just been added to the 40-man roster - but has since thrown 13 mediocre innings, getting his first taste of MLB in 2023. 1/10/23: Minnesota acquires A.J. Alexy (did not reach Minnesota) from Washington for Christian Jimenez (has not reached Washington), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota. Alexy was a fringe roster addition as a depth reliever. He was waived shortly after the trade and claimed by the White Sox. Jimenez is an 18-year-old in Rookie ball, so we’re several years from knowing if the trade was an unforced error. 3/16/18: Minnesota acquires Jake Cave (922 PA, 93 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Luis Gil* (33.1 IP, 114 ERA+, 0.6 bWAR), +1.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Cave had yet to debut in MLB, but I include this because he almost immediately became a Twin. Cave spent a couple of years as a good fourth outfielder before spending a couple of years as a poor fourth outfielder. Gil had a promising short run in 2021 but is recovering from Tommy John. Overall WAR added: 18.0 Overall, the Twins have successfully bought over the offseason, bringing in MLB players in exchange for unproven prospects. Given the nature of buying, it almost always looks better in the near term than it will years later, as the prospects traded away develop, but given the group of prospects traded away, the only one that looks like it has even a moderate chance of biting the club is Petty in Cincinnati. I’d assume that the Twins would make that deal again, anyway. View full article

When consuming baseball over the course of a 162 game season, multiple years in a row, it likely gets lost on fans how many people are involved in an organization beyond the 26-man roster. After a successful 2023 for the Minnesota Twins, viewing the experience through the eyes of a bullpen catcher provides some interesting insight. Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports On the field, fans watched Rocco Baldelli and the Minnesota Twins play American League Central Division-winning baseball. The 2023 squad ended an 18-year postseason drought, and they swept a Toronto Blue Jays team while besting former ace Jose Berrios in an elimination game. Behind the scenes, pitchers like Chris Paddack and Jorge Alcala were working their way back toward the active roster with an eye on competing alongside their teammates. Paddack ultimately realized the goal and looked great when deployed in September and October. As those bullpen sessions took place, I connected with Bryan Ludwig, a catcher doing it all behind the scenes. Despite working as an attorney, Ludwig has had the pleasure of working with the Twins as a bullpen catcher. Wondering what that experience has been like, what he has seen, and especially the development of arms this season, it seemed like a good time to connect. Twins Daily: How do you wind up as a bullpen catcher in a major league organization? What does your baseball background look like? Bryan Ludwig: I grew up in Woodbury and played ball at Woodbury High School ('04). I attended Augsburg University, where I played ball as a C/1B/DH (2004-2008). I also played for and ran the St. Paul Mudhens (Class A Townball) from 2005-2020, managing the team from 2010-2020. Since 2020, I've been playing summer ball in the Federal League (35+) for the Lakeville Lobos and moonlighting with Baseball 365's townball team. I've been a coach with the Minnesota Twins Youth Training Academy and the RBI Program since 2010. I work traveling camps/clinics in the spring/summer and train catchers in the offseason. I have also worked in club baseball as a head coach and trainer. Mostly with Great Lakes Baseball Academy until recently. Having a seven and nine-year-old is pulling me into the coach-dad realm lately with little league and softball. I've also been a volunteer assistant coach back with Augsburg, working with their catchers in fall ball and early spring, and since 2020, I've been working with the Midwest Speed Softball Club, training their catchers during their winter season. Rehab bullpen catching is a story of "right place, right time, right person." I had a unique skill set with unique connections that enabled me to meet a unique need. I was just a volunteer with the Twins academy in 2009, trying to log hours for my volunteer requirements at law school. The Twins' lefty specialist bullpen thrower was the one running those camps at the time, and leading up to the start of 2010, he got wind that the Twins were asking around about having a local catcher on-call to be a bullpen guy. The ask was to work with the training staff as guys rehabbed and fill in for home games as needed. This was a completely new role with the christening of Target Field. While they were in the Dome, an injury was a one-way ticket to Ft. Myers to rehab because no on-site facilities were available. With Target Field opening and a state-of-the-art training room and team doctors on-site, they needed someone who could work out with the pitchers when the team was on the road, during off days, or when the full-time bullpen catcher was unavailable or needed a break. It was late March 2010, and I got a call from the Twins bullpen guy in the middle of one of my classes. He explains the situation and asked if I would be interested in reporting to Target Field the following week to work with Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Carl Pavano on the field so they could get on the big mound before the home opener. The rest is history from there, I have been in this role since, except pausing during the pandemic when the organization limited who was in/around the clubhouse. I am grateful for the schedule flexibility my job as an attorney has provided to enable me to stay connected to the game, even in this small way. I have gotten to meet and interact with many amazing baseball people, and I hope to continue doing this as long as I am physically able. TD: When you get behind the plate for the Twins, what goes into that preparation? Are you working with anyone from the team to ensure you know what each guy wants to do? BL: There are two routes this goes: the in-game route and the rehab route. In-game, the preparation for the catcher is minimal. It is dictated by the situation and the call from the dugout. Also, each pitcher has their own preparation timeline. Unless it is a "get hot immediately" call, you have a general idea of who will be getting up depending on the inning and the situation. The bullpen coach and pitcher control the pen, but most of these guys have such a finely tuned internal clock they know exactly how long it will take to get hot as soon as that phone rings. Most guys will start throwing plyo balls and stretching around the 5th/6th inning, and once they get on the mound, it is anywhere between 15-25 pitches to get hot. The other job in-game is warming up left field. Otherwise, the bullpen is just baseball guys being baseball guys on the bench. For rehab work, it is a little more regimented. The training staff establishes a back-to-throwing program with built-in bullpen days. On those days, there is usually some pre-bullpen treatment and workout for the pitcher: long toss to a specific distance, some throw a short flat ground pen to work on release points and grip, and then a full pen on the big mound or out in the home bullpen. Everything monitored closely to ensure all the movements and metrics are improving or back to normal for a guy before they can go out on minor league assignment for a start or in-game relief work. The training staff I have worked with have been amazing at letting me use of all the tools and resources the big leaguers get to use to get ready to throw. On rehab days, I check in with the trainer to get the session plan, do some light band work and stretching, get on my shins, and head out to the first baseline for long toss. (I'm a Minnesota Townballer. Show-n-go is how we roll.) TD: This season, we saw the Twins put together one of their best starting rotations in franchise history. What was it like to work with those guys, and how was their stuff different than what you had seen in the past? BL: There is no denying that this was one of the most talented staffs the Twins have had in a long time. Aside from pure talent, one of the things that made this staff unique is that each pitcher, starting or relief, was uniquely complimentary to every one of the other guys on the roster. Pablo Lopez and Jhoan Duran did it with power and flair, Sonny Gray and Caleb Thielbar were bulldogs with control and finesse. Up and down the staff, there was a near-perfect balance of power and finesse, and guys like Pablo and Sonny took the lead on establishing a bulldog mentality across the staff. As an inside-outside observer, there were no wasted opportunities, and they attacked offenses versus just trying to hold an offense off. A lot of credit also goes to the Twins pitching coaches who fostered and supported that approach and gave all of these guys the tools and information necessary to find another edge or slight adjustment to add to their personal pitch arsenal. When you've seen big league "stuff," it is all elite, and pitching has outpaced hitting in how it is tracked, analyzed, and adjusted. I can talk about my thoughts on that for hours. Still, I think what made this staff so difficult was the consistency of its makeup that gave opposing offenses the sense that getting a starter out of a game only meant a constant barrage of difficult arms from the pen and on the days the starters went deep, they were equally unhittable. TD: Having done work with some of the guys rehabbing with the intention of making it back for the postseason, what tipped you off that they may be ready? How did their stuff look? BL: There are all kinds of measurables and metrics (spin rate, pitch depth, pitch shape, velocity, vertical break, horizontal break, etc.) that can give the team confidence that a guy is ready to step back on a big league mound. Those are all invaluable data points, but from my position, there is also a perceptible change in how a particular pitch moves or the snap of my mitt that I can tell the last piece has clicked into place. For some guys, it's that "out pitch" that bites a little harder, that changeup that disappears like a magic trick at 59 feet, or the fastball that has little lift that tells you "this guy is back." Sometimes, it's even a simple look they give after they let go of that breaking pitch at 100% for the first time, and it has the life and movement they expect. When they start repeating that output on the rehab mound, you can visibly see a weight lifted off their shoulders. I think any catcher would agree, when a pitcher is dialed in and that glove snap is just a little bit louder, you just have the intuitive sense that no hitter will be able to touch it. For all the data and technology, there is still a lot of raw feel in the moment that informs that player that they're ready. The tech, trainers, and coaches will confirm it, but that moment is always fun to be even a small part of. TD: You have seen plenty of pitchers while working behind the plate. Is there a guy or a pitch that jumps out as something that has always just been special? BL: 2014 All-Star Game aside (that is another fun story), It is not velocity that impresses. It is the movement and pinpoint control these guys have on pitches that can move 22 inches horizontally or drop 14 inches and still catch a corner. For the Twins, if you want to talk about wipeout pitches, it is tough to beat a Francisco Liriano slider or a vintage Joe Nathan curveball. However, that Duran splinker is, in fact, some ridiculous voodoo magic. Regarding a special moment, I spent an entire summer with Michael Pineda as he rehabbed from TJ. Seeing him progress and become a force in the rotation in 2019 was incredible. That grind was real, and he poured everything he had into it. That human element gets lost sometimes with fans who don't get to see that day-to-day drive and passion first-hand. TD: For Minnesota going into 2024, how confident should the quality of depth returning make fans feel about the pitching? Why can this group go out and again put up strong numbers? BL: It will be tough to replace some of the departing arms, but there is real buy-in from the returners to what the training and coaching staff want to develop with these guys individually and as a cohesive unit. The seasoning of some of our younger arms, along with the sustained presence of key vets, makes for a firm foundation to build off of the successes of this season. The bullpen will remain a force, and will be anchored by one of the most electric closers in the game (Duran), but Paddack is the guy I am most excited about. It is a bit of a wild card at this point, but if the Twins don't re-sign Gray and assuming a healthy season, I think his range of outcomes starts at something like 70-80% of what Sonny gave this rotation to a seamless replacement from Paddack in 2024. In both circumstances, Twins fans should be excited by that. TD: End it with something fun. What has been one of the best moments or stories you can share since working in this role? BL: I had the honor of serving as one of the bullpen catchers during All-Star Weekend in 2014. I was assigned to the World team during the Futures Game and the American League during the workout day, Home Run Derby, and All-Star Game. I was in the World bullpen for the Futures game and got to warm up a young stud named Jose Berrios before his start. This is where I have to get romantic about baseball because it is rare that you recognize one of those "stop and take it in" moments, but that was certainly it. During the game, I got to work with players who span the globe, some of whom didn't speak English. Each of the pins on the globe, MLB team affiliations, and varied languages didn't matter on that day because we all spoke the same language of baseball. There were no cross-ups. No missed signs. Just a couple of guys having a catch on a warm July evening with each new pitcher that entered the game. There are many other moments and experiences from that weekend and the years of being granted the opportunity to strap on the gear and play this small role with my favorite childhood team. That particular experience sits at the top for me because it was the perfect baseball microcosm. At the end of the day, players will come and go, and teams will rise and fall, but the game holds this baseball community together. The game lights us up every February as teams report to Spring Training and a new season begins. From the tee-baller in a jersey five sizes too big to the big leaguer catching the last out of the World Series, the game is the heartbeat. **** Baseball is a sport everyone experiences differently, and the barrier to entry is so low. While mastering the game is an art form, appreciating it is beyond a straightforward understanding. Bryan Ludwig does something fun outside of his regular work schedule, and hearing how that has all played out was quite the experience. View full article

Contending teams must have a solid baseline to their roster entering the offseason. Usually, this includes a solid group of veterans with young, up-and-coming players ready to take on a more critical role. How does the Twins roster rank compared to the rest of baseball? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Last season, there were strong teams in both leagues, with three teams winning 100 games or more. The Twins finished at 87-75, enough to win the AL Central by nine games, but it was the lowest win total of any division winner. Before free agency starts, clubs must evaluate their own roster and decide on their individual needs. FanGraphs and MLB.com combined resources to compile a list of the best rosters entering the offseason. As part of these rankings, Mike Petriello used FanGraphs’ depth charts and projects to find each team’s highest needs while ranking the clubs based on their current roster. Here’s a look at how the Twins ranked and some other questions facing the club this winter. How High Do the Twins Rank? Honestly, I clicked on the article and thought the Twins would rank in the middle of the pack. So I was surprised to see that MLB.com ranked the Twins as the sixth-best roster (41.3 WAR) entering the offseason. The teams ranking higher than the Twins are the Braves (51.4), Astros (46.6), Rays (45.9), Blue Jays (42.2), and Dodgers (41.5). It’s an interesting list of teams ahead of the Twins, with three teams winning 99+ games last season and the other two being Minnesota’s playoff opponents from last season. Also, the Twins are less than 1.0 WAR from moving into fourth place. Overall, it is an exciting place to start the winter, but there are other questions to answer. How Will the Twins Replace Sonny Gray? The Twins aren’t re-signing Gray, so the club must look into other options to fill his pivotal role at the top of the rotation. Internal options exist to recoup some of Gray’s lost value, including Chris Paddack and Louie Varland. However, neither of these pitchers is expected to perform at a Cy Young caliber level, and the Twins will want at least one more playoff-caliber starter. Last winter, the club traded for Pablo Lopez and developed him into one of the league’s best pitchers. The front office is expected to attempt to trade from the club's position player depth to improve the rotation. How Can the Twins Fill Holes in Center Field and First Base? According to FanGraphs ' depth chart and projections, center field and first base are the club’s other needs. Byron Buxton didn’t log a single inning in center field last season, and Michael A. Taylor is heading to free agency. The Twins have been rumored to be interested in Kevin Kiermaier, an elite defensive player, but he comes with his own injury history. There is a chance the Twins could turn center field over to a prospect like Austin Martin or DaShawn Keirsey, which likely wouldn’t happen until later in the season. The Twins received positive news regarding Alex Kirilloff’s shoulder surgery, giving hope that he can fully recover and produce at the big-league level. He’s missed significant time in recent seasons with various injuries, so his inclusion in the line-up is not guaranteed. Minnesota can try to work Jose Miranda back into the mix at first base after he missed time with his own shoulder injury. Another option is to give Edouard Julien more time at first base, which seems like an appropriate adjustment for his sophomore season. Where Do the Other AL Central Teams Rank? Based on current rosters and projections, the Twins are the odds-on-favorites to win the AL Central. Cleveland, 15th overall, is the closest team to Minnesota in the rankings and sits 4.4 WAR behind the Twins. Detroit finished ahead of Cleveland last season, but the Tigers rank 23rd with a 31.7 WAR. The Royals (26th) and the White Sox (29th) rank among the baseball’s bottom five teams, with the Rockies being the lone team with a worse WAR than Chicago. The Twins should easily win a second consecutive division title in MLB’s worst division. How Does Payroll Dropping Impact These Projections? Last week, reports surfaced from the GM meetings that the Twins payroll is expected to be $15-30 million below last season’s $155 million total. The team’s current revenue tied to its TV deal is in flux for next season, which is the biggest reason for the decrease in spending. Minnesota will likely trade away veteran players like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Kyle Farmer to clear some money off the books. With less veteran depth, the Twins will likely see their projected WAR drop unless they improve their starting pitching. What are your thoughts on these rankings? Do the Twins have a top-10 roster entering the offseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

It feels odd to say, but his managing moves have largely worked, and his team broke the most exhausting streak in sports. Most of the criticisms he's faced are unfounded. Could Rocco Baldelli actually be an asset as manager? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports One thing to know about baseball fans is that they all hold the firm belief that their team’s manager is terrible and holding their team back from limitless success. Plenty of Yankees fans hate Aaron Boone, thinking he’s too soft on his players. Blue Jays fans think John Schneider is too beholden to analytics. Astros fans think Dusty Baker is too beholden to Martin Maldonado. Even Guardians fans liked to roast Terry "Tito" Francona for insisting on playing Myles Straw, Cam Gallagher and Amed Rosario. Torey Lovullo and Dave Roberts? Bad in-game moves. Kevin Cash and Craig Counsell? Patsies for the front office. And a vocal (at least on social media) segment of Twins fandom think that Rocco Baldelli is complete trash. They think he focuses too much on analytics, resulting in an over-reliance on platoon matchups, and quick hooks for his starters. It doesn’t seem to matter much that Twins starters were second in baseball in innings pitched. It doesn’t seem to matter that the Twins' use of platoons in the second half likely saved their season. For the year the Twins ranked sixth in baseball in wRC+ for pinch hitters, including being third in all of baseball with a 124 wRC+ in the second half. They were also third in hitting lefties during the second half. It also doesn’t seem to matter that Baldelli has altered his approach to match his personnel: In 2022, with a flammable pitching staff that struggled across the board to pitch effective innings deep in games, Twins starters ranked 20th in innings pitched. In 2019 with the bomba squad, the Twins had the eighth fewest pinch hitters. In 2023, with guys like Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien all major liabilities against lefties, the Twins had the third most pinch hitters. Fans criticize Baldelli for Twins hitters striking out too much, not hitting situationally, and not bunting to move runners over. The truth is that the Twins ranked eleventh in baseball in bunt hits, with 13, and 19th in sacrifice bunts, with twelve. This despite an offense that led the American League in home runs. More importantly, they also ranked fourth in wRC+ with runners in scoring position. The strikeouts were historically high, and contributed to Houston pitching shutting them down in games three and four of the ALDS, but for one, Baldelli wasn’t telling them to do that. Two, when the Twins were struggling offensively in the first half, their strikeout rate was 26.8%, most in baseball. In the second half, when the Twins were the third most productive offense in baseball, their strikeout rate was 26.4%. And three, it is on the front office to add more contact to the lineup in 2024, but they don’t have to do much. Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo are free agents and struck out 33.5% and 42.8% of the time respectively, both incredibly high numbers. The Twins young hitters can hopefully improve, particularly Wallner and Julien. And the reinforcements at Triple A, Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, struck out 16% and 16.3%, respectively. The team that Carlos Correa compares this team to, the 2015 Astros, had the second highest strikeout rate in baseball that year. I don't have to tell you how it's gone since then. The main takeaway I have about Baldelli is that his team ended the playoff futility streak. You can claim that the team won despite him, but the reality is that the streak presented more of a mental challenge than any sort of game strategy hurdles (Although he graded out pretty well there, too). For 19 years, the Twins played tight in the playoffs. They started that way this year, too. Game 1 of the Wild Card series began with Kirilloff whiffing on a foul ball, then Jorge Polanco making a throwing error to the same batter. But from that point on, the Twins were solid defensively, played smart, and although their hitting wasn’t great, they got the W. And then two more. Players did not criticize Baldelli at any point, even when they were at their lowest in May and June. Sonny Gray was rumored to be miffed about Baldelli removing him from games before he wanted to, but he pitched his most innings since 2015. It has been reported that he wants to return, as well. Joe Ryan had opportunity to blast Baldelli and the coaching staff for removing him after two innings on Wednesday, but he didn’t. He understood that the best chance the Twins had to win that game was to throw all of their high-octane relievers, and not only did the Twins hold Houston to three runs, they didn’t allow any add-on runs after Jose Abreu’s home run in the fourth. If you have watched any Twins postseason games in the past 22 years, you know that may be a first. Baldelli won division titles his first two years. In 2021, Josh Donaldson, JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Alex Colome made sure there wouldn’t be a three-peat. In 2022, the team entered the trade deadline fairly healthy and leading the division. Then 19 players went down with season-ending injuries. The Twins made noise for the first time in decades these past few weeks, and some credit has to go to Baldelli. It’s hard to quantify, but I’ll try. Being considered an elite manager is part luck, part pure longevity and part skill. And you either need a lot of skill or a lot of luck to reach the longevity part. It took Bruce Bochy winning a championship in 2010 before he was given credit for pulling the right strings and uniting clubhouses. After 16 years of managing. Francona ended the Red Sox curse his first year on the job, so he was playing with house money. That made it easier to believe that his players loved him and would run through brick walls for him. Brandon Hyde took his Orioles through an entire rebuild. Most of the time, managers that lead rebuilding clubs are replaced once the team gets good (poor Rick Renteria). Hyde was allowed to see his team through to success, and now is regarded as a manager of the year candidate. Whether his newfound reputation as a hard nosed but smart manager is due to opportunity, or due to merit, is impossible to know. Baldelli is polished and professional to the media, but an uncouth New Englander behind the scenes. Gabe Kapler in the streets, Tommy Lasorda in the sheets, if you will. Time after time, when pressed about what caused the turnaround this season, players referred to an energetic, close-knit clubhouse where guys were communicative and accountable (compare that to the White Sox clubhouse). That’s on Baldelli. Sure the personnel was responsible for the offense coming to life in the second half. But Wallner, Julien and Royce Lewis were still rookies, and it takes a certain vibe to get young players acclimated to the big leagues quickly and productively. That’s partly on veterans like Kyle Farmer, Kepler, Gray and Correa creating that atmosphere. But keeping veterans bought in and happy with their situation, even if they aren’t playing as much as they would like, is on Baldelli. There’s also what he didn’t do. Baldelli never lashed out at the media, he never threw his players under the bus (except once for Kepler, but that tactic had the desired effect), and he never gave away game plans or strategies other teams could exploit. He also has had zero off-the-field issues. His players never showed him up, and the main criticisms he faced were from the very nuanced gang over at SKOR North trying to drive up engagement by citing the same disproven tropes I mentioned earlier. It’s still possible that Baldelli is more of a neutral-ish manager overall, but one more division title and a little more playoff noise in 2024 (his sixth year as manager) will cement him as not just an asset, but a franchise-altering presence. If that happens, we should worry less about who wants him fired, and more about him jumping ship for a higher-profile job somewhere else. When was the last time that was a possibility? View full article

Sonny Gray needs a replacement. Who that replacement needs to be depends on what you see Sonny Gray as. Let's explore the many Sonny Grays. Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Sonny Gray was the 2023 Minnesota Twins Most Valuable Player. He’s also an impending free agent, and all signs point to him not being a Minnesota Twin in 2023. He will likely reject the one-year, $20 million qualifying offer, and the Derek Falvey regime has never signed a starting pitcher to the money that Gray’s market will demand. If Gray is not returning, he has to be replaced. However, replacing Gray could mean several different things. The answer to “How will the Twins replace Sonny Gray?” probably depends on what you personally mean by “Sonny Gray.” Here are five interpretations of what “replacing Sonny Gray” means and what it would take in free agency. A Starting Pitcher This one is the easiest. If Sonny Gray is gone, the bare minimum that needs to happen is that he is replaced in the starting rotation. Technically, any pitcher will do. Gray threw 184 innings in 2023—the third most of his career and his most innings since 2015. Someone needs to throw those innings. That someone could be an internal option like Louie Varland or David Festa or any free agent pitcher, even someone in the Old Friend Kyle Gibson or Martin Perez Bin. For all of our sakes, it should not be one of them, but that’s the barest of minimums that prevents Nick Gordon from pitching every fifth day. A Playoff Starter Gray started two of the Twins’ six playoff games in 2023. Although he did not pitch Game 1, as the honor was given to Pablo Lopez, in many seasons Gray would have been given the ball to start the first game of the postseason. Lopez made two starts, and Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were each given a start, though they were effectively used as openers. Perhaps in 2024, the two younger arms will have earned the trust to be a true playoff starter, but that, again, is a role that will be necessary to fill. If Gray does not return, there needs to be another starter in the rotation that the Twins feel comfortable handling a spot in the playoff rotation. Gray had a season that set him up to be a Game 1 or 2 starter, but someone also needs to pitch a Game 3 or 4. Hypothetically, that would be a top-40 pitcher in the league, at minimum. Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Wacha, or someone of that ilk, would fit this role. A Frontline Starter Gray was not just a quality starter; he performed as one of the top starters in baseball. Every five days, he was one of the pitchers trusted to keep his team in every game he started. Although he only won eight games, the Twins had his starts circled on their calendars as winnable games, regardless of who they played. Replacing that type of starter is increasingly more work. On the free agent market, you’re getting into the $20 million average annual value space. Replacing Gray this way would require finding another pitcher to pair with Lopez as a 1, a 1b, or a 2. At the barest of minimums, this starter would need to be better than Joe Ryan—though Ryan has shown flashes of getting to this level himself. Bringing in that frontline starter, if not Gray, would require shopping in the Aaron Nola or Yoshinobu Yamamoto market. There are only a handful of these players, and they’re expensive. Derek Falvey, although he has courted this type of pitcher in the past, has never successfully signed one as a free agent. A Cy Young Candidate Gray will finish at minimum in the top three spots for the American League Cy Young Award, meaning that he performed at an elite level in 2023, doing all that the Twins could have asked of him when they traded the 2021 first-round pick Chase Petty for him. That type of pitcher, as it stands, does not reside in the free agent list. There are no Gerrit Coles or Justin Verlanders. The moment has passed for current free agent Clayton Kershaw. The closest match is that of Blake Snell, a former winner himself, who is surrounded by questions related to his walk rate and age, Any team hoping to sign a Cy Young-caliber starter in free agency in any year without the budget of the Yankees or the Dodgers is fighting a losing battle. Gray himself is not that guy. He probably just pitched the best season of his career, and he’s reached his mid-30s. Even re-signing him doesn’t fill that hole. Approximately Five Wins Above Replacement This concept was explored recently by Hunter McCall. Gray, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, was worth approximately 5 WAR. As discussed in the previous section, it’s hard to find a solution in free agency that will make up for his loss on its own. Sonny Gray probably won’t have a 5 WAR season himself. To paraphrase Moneyball, the Twins need to replace Gray in the aggregate. It doesn’t need to a single replacement worth 5 WAR. Unless they were to trade for a player and make a year-to-year improvement with him as they did with Lopez, that WAR must come from multiple sources. The Twins are replacing both Gray and Kenta Maeda (about 1.5 WAR) this offseason—presumably with Chris Paddack and some other pitcher. If the Twins were to sign a top-flight free agent who was worth 4 WAR in 2024, and Paddack was worth 3 WAR, they would have made up for Gray in the aggregate. If the new free agent was worth 2.5 WAR, Paddack was worth 2.5, and then Ryan and Ober each raised their own by 1 WAR, they will have made up for Gray’s absence in the aggregate. There are many ways to reach that magic number, but whatever the Twins come up with must work. The solution and necessary work come down to the interpretation of what Gray meant to this year’s team. What is your read on the situation? What do you need to see from the Twins to believe that Gray will have been replaced in 2024? Leave a comment. View full article

The Twins had three Gold Glove Finalists, but the trio failed to win the top honors. Here are the highs and lows for the team in the final SDI rankings. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are the final totals for the 2023 season. Pitcher (AL Ranking): Pablo Lopez 3.2 SDI (2nd), Sonny Gray 3.0 SDI (3rd) Lopez and Gray were Gold Glove finalists and finished in the top three in the final SDI rankings. Gray made a tremendous jump in the season’s second half to move from the bottom half to the top five. Lopez ranked well for a large portion of the season and might have put himself in contention for a Gold Glove in future years. Former Twins pitcher Jose Berrios won his first Gold Glove and ranked as the top pitcher in the AL, according to SDI. He has been a tremendous defender throughout his career, so it was long overdue for him to take home the hardware. Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vazquez 3.5 SDI (4th), Ryan Jeffers -0.3 SDI (10th) Vazquez saw his offense suffer during the 2023 season, but his defense continued to rank near the top of the league. He more than doubled his SDI total from August 13th to the season’s end, which can be challenging for catchers at the end of a long season. Jeffers had a positive SDI earlier in the season but saw his total drop in the second half. He still finished in the top 10, and the Twins had enough confidence in him to start every playoff game behind the plate. It will be interesting to monitor how this duo continues to rank in future years as they work together. First Base (AL Ranking): Joey Gallo -0.2 SDI (5th) For most of the season, the Twins had no one qualified for the SDI leaderboard at first base. Alex Kirilloff’s injury forced the Twins to use other options at first, including Gallo. The Twins had confidence in Gallo playing first base when they signed him last winter because bench coach Jayce Tingler worked with Gallo in Texas. Gallo’s defense wasn’t outstanding, but he did enough to finish among the top five AL first basemen in SDI. Second Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify The Twins used Edouard Julien and Jorge Polanco at second base during the 2023 campaign, with both struggling defensively at the position. Polanco posted a -9 OAA during the 2022 season, and he was worth -7 OAA during the current season. Julien entered the season with a reputation as a poor second base defender, but he worked hard and saw improved results. He had a -2 OAA in the middle of August and ended the season with a 0 OAA. Minnesota will need to decide on their defensive alignment for the 2024 campaign, and Julien might get more time at first base. Third Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify Minnesota used a variety of players at third base this season, including Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer, and Royce Lewis. Miranda’s defense was poor (-6 OAA), but a shoulder injury impacted him throughout the season. Lewis was learning a new position after playing shortstop for most of his professional career. He moved from a negative OAA in August to a positive OAA by the season’s end. With a full offseason, one can expect Lewis to be even better at the hot corner in 2024. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa -2.7 SDI (9th) Correa was a surprise inclusion on the list of Gold Glove Finalists, but that speaks to how much the players and managers respect him in the voting process. He didn’t rank well by many defensive metrics, including a negative SDI and 1 OAA. His plantar fasciitis likely impacted his defensive ability during the season, which was one of the reasons for fluctuations in his metrics. Twins saw what he could mean defensively in the playoffs, with Correa making multiple game-changing plays. Following the season, the Twins named Correa the team's best defensive player as part of the Diamond Awards. Left Field (AL Ranking): Willi Castro 1.5 SDI (4th) Castro didn’t have a strong defensive reputation when he joined the Twins, but he put together solid numbers at multiple positions. He played six defensive positions and posted a positive OAA at second base, third base, and shortstop. Left field was the lone outfield position where he didn’t have a negative OAA (0 OAA in LF). Joey Gallo ranked among the AL’s top 10 in August, but he played more first base down the stretch (see above). Center Field (AL Ranking): Michael A. Taylor 6.3 SDI (5th) Taylor looked like a potential Gold Glove finalist at mid-season before stalling out. He dropped from a tie for third in SDI to fifth overall in the final rankings. His OAA ranks in the 95th percentile, seven points higher than last season, and his arm strength ranks in the 90th percentile. Taylor was everything the Twins could hope for and more in center field, and the team will need to re-sign him or find a replacement this winter. Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 2.5 SDI (5th) Like Kepler’s bat, his defense made considerable strides in the second half. In August’s SDI update, he ranked 9th among AL right fielders, and he finished the year in the top-5. The Twins have always thought highly of Kepler’s defensive value, and he finished the year with an OAA in the 86th percentile. Kepler’s slow start( some due to injury) likely cost him a chance to be a Gold Glove finalist for the second consecutive season. Are you surprised by any of these defensive rankings? Who would you rank as the team's top defender? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins are cutting payroll. Here are six bad impacts - and one good one. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Two days ago, we framed the Twins payroll situation, emphasizing that before the individual roster decisions needed to be made, some more significant decisions needed to be made. The top one was what the Twins would do about their expiring $54M TV deal. What is clear is that $55M in gross revenue is at stake. The Twins (and most MLB clubs) claim they spend slightly over 50% of their gross revenue on players' salaries. That could mean an estimated $30M drop in payroll. That's the bad news. The really bad news came yesterday: that is the plan. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins Opening Day payroll is likely in the $125-$140M range, down roughly $15-30M from last year's ~$155M Opening Day Payroll. If you play with Twins Daily's Payroll Blueprint for even five minutes, you'll see just how limiting that is because their default payroll is already $115-$125M. Here are the six crummiest results you'll find. 1. See Ya, Sonny The Twins were likely to be measured chasing free-agent starting pitching; they have been ever since Falvey took charge of the Twins in 2017. To return to last year's (admittedly) excellent standard, they must sign at least one pitcher that can replace the American League ERA leader, Sonny Gray. That's not going to happen now. Today's Offseason Handbook story details the starting pitching market and categorizes players as "too hot" (the Twins won't pay that much), "too cold" (the Twins can afford them, but they don't replace Gray), or "just right" (they can replace Gray but could be expensive). Today's news means they're targeting pitchers that only need a one-year contract, all of whom will fall in the "too cold" or below category. They could sign a pitcher at the level of Kenta Maeda, or a riskier pitcher with higher upside on a make-good contract, or a veteran #4 or #5 pitcher who can eat some innings. But whomever they choose, they aren't replacing Gray - or anyone even near his level - via free agency. 2. So-so Center Fielder and Blowing Off Batters Dreaming of adding that big, right-handed bat this winter? Keep dreaming. Unless payroll is subtracted in some other way (which we'll get to), this cut only leaves money for one mediocre bat to be added. That one is likely spoken for: the Twins need a center fielder. With Michael A. Taylor becoming a free agent and Byron Buxton's health in question, center field is the one "to do" that must get done. This payroll cut means it won't be a high-end option like Cody Bellinger or Japan's Jung Hoo Lee. The Twins are likely limited to precisely the level of Taylor or below while hoping that some of their prospects, like Austin Martin, challenge for the role by midyear. 3. Desirable Duo The Twins want Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco on the roster next year. The veteran duo will not need to be moved to hit the new payroll level. But trading either would give the team an additional $10M for other needs. So, while the Twins won't actively shop Polanco and Kepler, they won't need to. Polanco is more valuable than any other second baseman (indeed, middle infielder) free agent. Max Kepler would be a top-10 hitter in this thin free-agent market. Teams looking to get better are already asking about them. In addition, any team the Twins approach about a trade (for, perhaps, a starting pitcher) will ask for Polanco or Kepler as a possible return. So, this cut doesn't mean they'll be moved; I'd still put the chances as less than 50% that either will be traded. But it does mean the Twins front office will have a better reason to listen. 4. Farewell Farmer The Twins have one borderline case for arbitration, and payroll cuts are not good news for borderline arbitration cases. Offering Kyle Farmer arbitration guarantees him approximately $6-7M to be a utility player. The Twins now need that money for a less luxurious role, like a center fielder. Farmer will either be non-tendered by the Twins next week before the non-tender deadline (11/18) or traded to a team that needs a shortstop, the same way the Twins did when they acquired Farmer last year. Either way, he won't be on next year's roster. 5. Harvesting the Farm Don't get too attached to your favorite Twins' prospect because this cut means it's much more likely they'll get traded away this year. If the Twins can't replace their pitching or center fielder with money, they'll resort to trading prospects. The good news is that this has often worked well for the Twins. Jake Odorizzi, Gray, Maeda, and Taylor came from trading away prospects. 6. Foul Up Fan Support After waiting almost 20 years for a postseason win, Twins fans finally experienced a postseason run. When the Twins won that first game of the Wild Card Round and then advanced, tickets that cost $4 for Game 1 of the Wild Card were selling for $100 for Game 3 of the ALDS. That support, I'm sure the Twins hoped, would transform into season ticket holders. But the easiest way to squash any support from the Twins fan base is to threaten their team by withholding resources. Minnesotans are too familiar with that song after hearing it for 60+ years and multiple ownership groups. This storyline has plagued the Twins throughout their career and is the single most damaging narrative to marketing the team. And now the team is reinforcing it. 7. The Silver Lining is Streaming One piece of good news: the Twins clearly understand the value of streaming their games on the internet. Streaming rights have been the source of this conflict, ending their TV deal. If they're sacrificing tens of millions of revenue, they think they have identified avenues for fans to stream content in 2024 that have not existed for years. Whatever the new TV solution is, those fans who have cut the cord will get to watch their Twins in 2024 and beyond. It'll just be a more financially slimmed-down version of the team. View full article