Cris E

Your point in the article about reducing playing time to keep guys fresh is why these are so low. Those guys don't know anything specific about any team, just what the algorithm spits out. But even if you see Jeffers as a 90 game catcher and want to ding him for it there's still the problem that he can hit better than any other option this winter. That's a huge deal when you consider that just playing him more often or letting him DH would extract more value for a team.

So the argument is what, three guys would be making $60m and that's bad? Here's the counter to that: only a handful of guys from the rest of the roster are making more than $2m. But Jeffers made $6.7 last year so this is really about the incremental $16m. We can clear most of it by moving a couple guys without roles and the rest can come from Tom P's viagra fund. If he wants to pose as a big man in front of the mirror every morning he's going to have to write some checks. Lewis Larnach and Ober make $18m and of all of them only maybe Larnach should be kept: we need a DH so maybe you keep him for a while instead of Bell. If we have Jeffers we can dump Caratini on someone who really needs a catcher and free even more money. Then you find some guy who can play the short side of a DH platoon and hit some lefties and you're golden. If Buxton needs days off he can have a couple, and if Jeffers needs to rest he can play 1B like Caratini. Maybe if Jeffers takes the QO you then offer him a contract with a second or third year where the total money gets guaranteed and they can smooth it out a little. But mostly you raise the payroll to $140m like an adult with a huge pile of cash coming in from shared revenue every year.

I don't disagree with this, but I do want to call out the strawman and say the opening day 2026 defense was no longer a thing by about the six week mark. In mid-May Lewis lost his 3B job, Lee left SS and a couple weeks later Keaschall moved to the outfield for good. Josh Bell played 1B 7 times in April, ten in May and three the rest of the way. And Wallner's glove was taken from him and flung across the river in May as well. Most of those changes were not driven by injury or necessity, as the guys mostly kept playing, just at new places. (Lewis was in St Paul for a bit, but others just moved around.) The defense has been much better since things settled down. Do try to give credit when they do things better, as I think it makes for a more pleasant mood and it may encourage them to keep it up.

He's out until mid-year, so little risk of Banda getting poached. Once we get through the narrow, non-IL set of roster months they can add him back on a minor league contract to hang on to him and help with his rehab. He's worth having, but you can take him off the top shelf for this house cleaning work.

Well they did start doing things differently in 2026. - Guys changed to new positions. They didn't add a new position, they left the old one and stayed at the new one. Revolutionary. EDIT: And this was mostly due to a material dissatisfaction with the defense on the field. That's also new. - Guys got a look and were gone if they didn't make the grade. Wallner was a favorite with a multi-year track record and was essentially cut in May. SWR is gone, Martin was set aside for the kids, Fedko is gone, along with Outman, Arcia, Topa, Orze and a host of other anonymous pitchers. - Pitchers got to stay in longer. Far fewer bullpen/opener games. Everyone got to close if their mom brought treats. - Far fewer IL trips, which sounds good until you realize I'm not pleased with this. Several guys were allowed to hang around and chew up innings and ABs when they should have been sat down or sent down to figure stuff out or get well. Buxton and Lewis were the worst, but there were many others. Morris was sucking the chrome off trailer hitches for a month in there, mid-Aug to mid-Sept. So things are different. It's not shown up in team building much yet, but let's see how things go. If Tom P is still on his hot yoga high when the free agent season opens we might see some stuff.

Both are OBP guys with limited power and poor defensive chops leading to a battle to find a defensive position. Luke has been healthier and shown more power. Luis has only been defensively average once in his career, and since it didn't happen until his age 29 season I'm not confident it's a new baseline that he can be counted on to maintain. OTOH he seems to have stayed healthy since leaving the Twins, which was a huge knock on him early in his career. But there are far better ways to spend $20m than a slower, weaker Luke Keashall (that also could end up blocking the real Luke Keaschall at 1B or DH.)

Waaay too many familiar names on this list. Go back two years and a third of these guys were not even in the organization. This is the primary reason no one writes these. You're standing on the edge of a change to the CBA which should directly affect how orgs like the Twins spend their money. There will be changes, perhaps even by Dec 1, which makes this an unwise waste of time. (But hey, clicks.)

Arraez is a poor choice because we already have him in a younger, better, cheaper Keaschall. Bauer makes way more sense to this roster because we don't have anyone like him yet. Buxton can do it for stretches, but Bell probably won't be back and the big stick that's always there in the middle is important to build around. (And not to bash Jim Bowden again, but I just want to bash Jim Bowden again and point out he thinks Lowe can be had for 3/$45m. He's a great backup if Bauer gets too rich.) Jeffers should be #1 in their plans, but it's quite likely Boras wants to wait things out and wring all possible dollars from this opportunity. It's why he was chosen after all. And you're not going to get the second or third catcher in this entire offseason on a cheap one year deal, so Kelly/Stephenson will be at least two. That's fine because odds are Lackey won't be a full time starter in 2028 yet. I mean he could be, but if you're building a roster you need to include contingencies, and rookie catchers taking more than a half season to get established is quite common. I don't see a huge need for top dollar relievers. I'd like to see one decent old guy to replace Rogers/Minter, so maybe an Adams, Abreau, Vesia or Blackburn type who won't be The Closer by virtue of his signing but could carry the ball if he earns it. Way more risk of volatility in this crew, but far cheaper too. Trade Ober now. Keep Larnach for DH. Keep Lewis with no promised roster spot and trade him the minute anyone wants him; I believe there are a lot of teams that think they can fix him.

I think the change from the slider-happy Falvey/Johnson/Maki regime to this new FB-centered ethos Reith has been preaching will help a lot. MIL was working with guys they found, including former Twin Magill, so a change on our end was due. Maybe in his formative years Falvey believed small dollar teams like CLE and MIN could never afford the high velo types, whatever, but the truth today is that there are a hundred guys that can hit 100 MPH and every team needs a bunch of them.

Just to echo what everyone is saying, Ryan can still pitch and pitch well. Ober is treading the fine line between bad starter and old swingman. That can be valuable to a team with a massive IR list, but we have a different problem right now and that's sorting through the ready and near-ready arms we have on hand. The last thing we need to do is waste innings on an insurance policy that soaks up valuable opportunities to develop our future. Ober can maybe pull a Dobnak and sit with German in St Paul, but I really don't want to see him on the mound at Target Field again.

You want to dump three of your healthy 2026 starters to avoid not having enough starters on hand for 2028. Say that out loud and think about how it sounds. Now what would that look like exactly? Be specific: names, estimated value required to get and arrival times on the MLB roster, etc. I think it's far more difficult than you realize. Really go do this now. Because now I want you to take that list (you didn't make the list, did you?) and compare it to the young pitchers who appeared for the Twins in the past two years: Prielipp, Abel, Mathews, Morris, Adams, Festa, Rojas, Raya, and Quick and Gallagher are at AAA waiting to come in after them. Who were you going to pick up that's got a better pedigree than Abel? What young starter are you going to acquire that did better than Mathews' 10 home starts (2.57 ERA, only a hotel routine away from Cy Young votes. ) They just went and got a few of these guys last year, so where's the development and patience to build them up? C'mon, posts like this are just noise and really can't work once you start thinking about them.

OK, now that I bothered doing that my real plan only differs in how much those first two would actually cost. 1. Still sign Jeffers, but probably only to 3/$50m or 4/$60m. 2. Bauers might go for more than 4/$56m, but stay in for a while. Lowe if you don't like where it ends up. Clemens can cover the other spot. 3. and 4. are the same. 5. I think they do need to get comfortable with the idea of trading young talent. They sent out the widely recognized Hill and the provincially valued Kline for Hoffman, and chances are good that'll never haunt them too badly. I like watching ERod play, lots of style and flair, but if he comes out cold next spring I'm not sure we have the intestinal fortitude to leave him on the bench with a .117 ahead of Martin, for example. Not sure what they target, but during this winter I encourage Tinney to find 1B glove.

OK, let's have some fun. I just read Jim Bowden's free agent piece over the The Athletic and I am going to BELIEVE* HIM! * I will also follow this up with a more plausible posting later. 1. Jeffers is only worth 2/$15m, so we do that. Heck, maybe go 3/$25m if I have that second mimosa for breakfast. 2. Bauers is only going to cost 4/$56m, but I assume he'll really want more so 4/$60m. 3. Sign free agents Jason Adam and Brian Abreu for the pen, come "close" on Morjon. 4. Offer Lewis a lowball deal and trade him if he balks. ATL might take a flyer on Royce as a replacement for Albies. Sign Larnach and keep him for DH unless you can find a trade out there.

So Shaw is available because the infield is full and he's without a position, so the person to trade him for is... another infielder? Why would the Cubs do this?

There are two questions here: managing the 40 man immediately and then what you want to do heading into the CBA negotiations. The day after the World Series ends you lose the four free agents, you DFA Grey and one of Acton, Anderson or Sabato, and then you keep the six names on the 60 day. You can always cut guys later if you trade for new faces or sign a big free agent, God knows there are easy places to upgrade, but there's no reason to do it all now. The harder question is how many guys you can move around by Dec 1 when everything shuts down. What do you want to be carrying into the break? The period before the winter meetings are usually pretty dead. This year might be different though, since other teams will be in the same spot as the Twins, wanting to shuffle some names before a lockout that's almost certainly going to only leave a short window afterwards to set the 2027 lineup. They may want to get a lot of little changes made now rather than packing even more into the couple weeks between a new CBA and the first games. So I'd find a way to move Larnach, Lewis, Wallner and Ober for just about anything. Honestly I'd move any name on that bubble list, but those are the only ones that may have value. If you haven't had a bite on them by Thanksgiving, then drop Wallner and offer below arb contracts to the others. They either sign at a discount or they're free agents. My guess is that Lewis and Ober would sign and Larnach would leave. And I'd be on the lookout for a real 1B and a backup C, or any arms. Caratini is not an inspiring choice right now. I think big free agent signings are going to be rare in November given how weak the class is and how the rules may change. That said, Jeffers gets a three year offer if there's any expectation in the front office that the spending is going to have to rise a bunch in the next few years.