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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    You know who managed "by the book"? Earl Weaver. (admittedly, he also wrote sections of it) i don't understand this desire for Rocco to be making more decisions that are based on instinct or guesswork or "feel". is it the hope that he'll get more of them wrong and get fired faster? Most of the time the "genius" moves by a baseball manager are good players playing well at the right time.
  2. jmlease1
    we also got one back. Miller's stock had probably dropped after showing minimal improvement at the plate. So far both players are doing better in their new environments, so maybe they both just needed a change. We'll see where that lands at the end of the season, but we didn't just hand over a prospect for Margot: Doncon has value too.
  3. jmlease1
    the one thing we all have to remember is pretty much everyone who is saying this about Margot this year...was also saying this about Kepler last season. (That includes me) We weren't just ripping the FO for hanging on to Gallo and letting him play when he was brutal at the plate, we wanted Kepler cut loose too. Max didn't get going until July when he made us all (including me) look stupid. Now, both Gallo and Kepler were playing better defense last year than Margot has shown so far, and we had more significant injuries to manage as well (I recall saying that Kepler was going to get to keep his job because we didn't have anyone else and was a better bet than Gallo so what the hell. But I certainly didn't see his second half coming, and very few people on these boards did either). but it's the FOMO with an example like Kepler that keeps teams hanging on to a Gallo or a Margot. When exactly is the right time to "know" that a guy just doesn't have it this year? With Margot being poor on defense and showing such limited utility even if he starts performing better...I think it's safer to be more aggressive. If Buxton is back quickly, I think Margot should be feeling the heat.
  4. jmlease1
    Frankly, it's what most teams do: stick with the veteran and hope they turn it around rather than pay them to go away, but especially teams with more limited resources. The sunk cost fallacy is a real thing in baseball for sure. I'm as frustrated with Margot as everyone. The fact that he's not trusted to play CF and has performed so poorly in the corners on defense is frankly a shocker. He's been a zero at basically everything he should have been good at. The acquisition was defensible if underwhelming at the time, but so far it's been a total failure. It didn't hurt much early in the season because Buxton was playing almost every day, but now that he's hit the IL (which was a surprise to no one, including twins management) Margot seems utterly incapable of being a contributor. He's substantially better against LHP, but hardly good. But it's balanced by him being unplayable against RHP right now. It's still a small sample, but there's little to suggest he's figuring anything out. Basically, the only thing he should be used for right now is as a PH against a LH reliever, and only when there's someone else available to replace him. That's pretty awful, when benches are only 4 dudes. I hope the twins are more aggressive about replacing him on the roster than they have been with veterans in the past.
  5. jmlease1
    there is no memo, there are no "my boys", there's no mandate like this, it's entirely made up.
  6. jmlease1
    McCusker sure had himself a day. he's hit ever since joining the organization, but he will need to keep the Ks manageable in order to keep climbing. Looks like we signed him out of the independent leagues? Good scouting to spot him as a potential hitter. Power is for real, even in the Texas League. He's not young, so he need to advance. Great news on Zebby Matthews moving up to AA! He's certainly earned it, and I'm looking forward to seeing how he does there. With Lewis on the IL it's nice to see another pitcher advancing.
  7. jmlease1
    Any time I see the "spreadsheets and algorithm" comments it's like Miss Othmar on the Peanuts cartoons. because now we're on a pre-determined course that doesn't even have anything to do with the game. I think it was a tough decision on Ober. he was effective in the game, but was NOT dominant (I was there, and he wasn't exactly dealing). He got through the 4th 1-2-3 but had a lot of trouble finishing off Garver & Urias. 5th inning was 1-2-3, but had 2 hard-hit balls to left and he had a number of balls hit to the OF last night that were fortunately right at guys. facing the top of the order in the 6th, I don't think it was a bad call to go to Sands. And that one worked out, Sands got through it clean. While I don't care for Rocco being as aggressive as he is with the bench in the middle innings, the Farmer sub for Julien is justifiable for the improved defense as he came in with the lead. I'm ok with that one. The one that was a poor choice and not particularly justifiable was going to Margot for Larnach. There's no defensive benefit attached to replacing your DH and Larnach is one of our better hitters right now, regardless of the platoon split, and going to Margot that early takes Larnach off the field. While I understand the idea of breaking a game open (and I don't disagree with it, really) going to Margot for Larnach with a runner on second isn't enough of an advantage to make it worth pulling Larnach's bat out of the lineup so early, when you know he's going to come up again. leaving Alcala in for a second inning is a tough one: he's pitched multiple innings before, and they seemed to be looking to have him be a guy who could go more than 1 inning. But the real question is whether they should have put that burden on Sands to come out for the 7th, and I think that was the choice that they got wrong. They should have at least asked Sands to come out for the 7th because they would have had options in Okert/Jackson/Alcala to come in had respond if Sands started to wobble, but by the 9th they've already used those up. but this one is more along the lines of "decision that looks bad because the results were sh!t" rather than "horrible process and decision-making". If you can't trust Jackson to face the 5-7 guys in a lineup, then there's no point in having him, and he's been fine in these situations this year. not elite, but a decent veteran option. I mean, who really had Mitch "my legs are so bad no one will let me catch any longer" Garver beating out an infield hit? Rocco deserves the stick for yanking Larnach for Margot in the 5th, though. Too early to pull a good hitter who has been swinging the bat well for a mediocre hitter who has struggled all season just for the platoon advantage. That's probably the biggest problem I have with Rocco's game management overall, and it went poorly last night.
  8. jmlease1
    A lot of us love defense. And the Twins organizationally value defense more than I think you believe, or they wouldn't have signed guys like Vazquez or Santana. Or kept running with Kepler when his bat didn't deserve it. At catcher they seem to have recognized that Garver wasn't going to stay healthy back there and weren't confident that Rortvedt could hit enough to be anything more than a backup. Since the Twins prefer to do a 50-50 or 60-40 share between their catchers, I can see how expecting Rortvedt to hold up a 40% share might have been hard. It certainly would have been a disaster last season. Jeffers has clearly been the better bet.
  9. jmlease1
    Yeah, last year he simply couldn't throw which ruled him out for 3B. And with lewis playing so very well at 3B it was easy to think of Miranda as being a 1B/DH guy especially since that's where he had the best chance of finding PT. But he's been looking solid enough at 3B for sure. he does still kinda swing at everything, which makes me nervous...but he does have very good bat to ball skills, so hopefully he can continue to work hits.
  10. jmlease1
    Yeah, last year he simply couldn't throw which ruled him out for 3B. And with lewis playing so very well at 3B it was easy to think of Miranda as being a 1B/DH guy especially since that's where he had the best chance of finding PT. But he's been looking solid enough at 3B for sure. he does still kinda swing at everything, which makes me nervous...but he does have very good bat to ball skills, so hopefully he can continue to work hits.
  11. jmlease1
    odd start from Festa, but it's one of those where you look at it and can see why he's a top prospect and why he's still in AAA. He's still under 150 total innings in the high minors, so there's work to be done. but the talent is there. Chourio and Doncon are both doing all right in the FSL, and Winokur is a nice fit along with them. Wish Jenkins was back, but there's no way the Twins take any chances with that hammy of his, so I'm not expecting him back until June.
  12. jmlease1
    Let's check back in on that Rortvedt opinion in July and see if you still prefer him? Because there's little to suggest that Rortvedt's out-sized success at the plate so far this season is anything more than small sample size. That BABIP isn't remotely sustainable, so once a bunch of those singles start turning into outs again his value at the plate diminishes rapidly. (I'm baffled by the idea that TB has a drastically different hitting approach than MN; Rocco cut his teeth in TB and clearly respects their development patterns and approach) I was a Rortvedt backer from the jump, but there's little in his history that suggests this is sustainable for him; he's always had the profile of a backup. Much as I've always liked him, I'd wager money he won't be a league average hitter this season, and I'd wager the same kind of money that Jeffers will be one of the best hitting catchers in baseball. The split that the Twins do on their catchers probably keeps Jeffers from getting the same kind of attention that some of the bets catchers get, but if he keeps hitting near this he will get his flowers. While I'd like more production from vazquez, I think the Twins concept of shared catching duties is a smart one and it's helped Jeffers flourish. We'll see where his framing numbers land at the end of the season, but he's doing a good job blocking the plate (a real concern a few seasons ago) and limiting the running game. I don't think any Twins pitchers have a problem throwing to jeffers. Twins had a big advantage with Joe Mauer's offense at catcher back in the day. It's a big advantage having Jeffers offense back there today, and he's been a key man in running the twins back into contention.
  13. jmlease1
    The wins keep a-rollin'! Gotta love it. Hottest team in baseball, and recovered nicely from the early season blues. Streaks like this aren't easy and I love seeing it. Be awesome if they can take out the BoSox again on sunday and sweep a 4th series in a row. Lopez has looked good this season and then had the one bum inning that messes up his line and makes it tougher for the Twins to pull out the win. Today he escaped without significant damage and got through his 6 pretty clean. Hopefully he gets on a bit of a roll. We've seen him dominate before, and 8 K's in 6 is pretty fine. Hope it's nothing serious with Stewart and this is more precautionary than anything else, but the bullpen depth sure makes it less worrisome. Just win, baby.
  14. jmlease1
    rotten news about Lewis. had real hopes for him, and the move to the 60-day is bad bad news. so hard to keep pitchers healthy. Maybe they really are taking the right approach with Raya?
  15. jmlease1
    I'm really happy to see him hitting well and looking solid at 3B. I do have some concerns that his approach isn't going to be sustainable as teams get more tape on him; better pitchers in MLB do tend to exploit guys who swing at everything. I don't expect him to take a ton of walks, but ticking up that box a little more could make a real difference. We'll see how he responds when he gets into a bad stretch, if he can adjust to the adjustments pitchers are making against him. But his struggles last season were clearly related to his injury status and he looks much much better this year. I can't really blame the Twins for being concerned about putting 1B in the hands of Miranda and Kirilloff out the gate; both guys hadn't been healthy and Miranda in particular had real questions whether he was fully healthy coming into the year. And beyond those guys the next man up in the minors would have been...Severino? Who had limited PT at 1B and no MLB experience (and he's really struggled so far in AAA this year). Here's hoping Miranda keeps making a decision on who to replace when Lewis comes back very very difficult.
  16. jmlease1
    Really good win. Jax and Duran look pretty great out there, and that's bad for other teams. I'm amazed how how easily Duran throws 101. There doesn't seem to be any extra effort or strain when he throws that fastball and then the gun shows 101 and you just shake your head. Excellent start from Paddack, and hope it's a sign of things to come. Maybe Keith Law will acknowledge Paddack as being a starter now. (unlikely) Good job breaking open the game but the offense, showed a lot of patience there.
  17. jmlease1
    I think so too. Prospect development is not linear. Miranda is looking good this season after an awful year in 2023, marred by injury. He seems intent on forcing his way onto the roster, which is great. Wallner will get it back together, but Larnach may keep him down in AAA anyways. These are the problems you want to have.
  18. jmlease1
    well, this is the difference between actually running a franchise and thinking about it like a fantasy club, right? Fantasy owners can be as cutthroat as they want with no long-term consequences for player acquisition. There's always a pool of players on the fringes to choose from to churn the back end of your roster to try to make marginal gains or catch someone for a few hot weeks and move on. Doesn't work that way IRL. Notably, Vazquez wasn't brought up here (mostly because with another year on his deal, no one realistically sees a way to move on from him), but he's so far managing to be even worse at the plate than last season and making it a 3-way race for "worst hitter" on the Twins between him, Farmer, and Margot. But at least the defense has been very good so far. It'll be interesting to see what happens if everyone is healthy when Lewis is ready to come back and if Miranda continues to hit. That's probably the first point where there could be a little crunch on the position player side. And if Margot keeps hitting LHP reasonably well, I doubt they move on from him. It would be interesting to see if Jackson would get through waivers. He's been...fine? he looks like a lot of middle relievers, I think someone else might take him if we tried that dance.
  19. jmlease1
    I'm happy to see success for Cespedes, who hadn't done a lot to this point and is having a breakout campaign so far. but to me it has to be Emma Rodriguez, who is putting up equally massive numbers, doing it at a high levels, and is 2 years younger. sure the hitting environment in the Texas League is better than the Midwest, but being older/younger for your level makes an impact too. Rodriguez is 3 years younger than average for his level, and Cespedes is nearly a year older. With the stats being what they are for both guys (Emma at 1.193 OPS vs Rubel at 1.104 OPS) even adjusting for hitting environments, I think I take the younger player at the higher level. be interesting to see if Cespedes can keep raking and earn an early promotion, though.
  20. jmlease1
    seriously. this isn't like when you need a pitcher, especially a starter. position players can go every day and you can literally hop the light rail to get from CHS to Target Field. Best news is the Emma was back in the OF. Glad it wasn't a serious injury. Looking forward to him resuming his destruction of AA.
  21. jmlease1
    They also prioritize maintaining depth, especially early in the season. they're not going to be cutting veterans in April or May because then those players are gone. Younger players with options can be sent down and brought back. After the debacle of the 2022 season, where the team was in first place in the division in September and utterly collapsed and a major component of that collapse was the lack of depth to overcome injuries (we started an OF of Cave, Celestino, and Contreras in a key series against Cleveland!), this front office has made it a clear priority to have experienced MLB players on the roster and depth in the system to manage through that. While it was incredibly frustrating to see them stick with Gallo through the summer after he fell apart after a great first month, they also did the same with Kepler who was brutal in May and not much better until the later part of June...and Kepler was terrific in the second half of the season. So...how aggressive should they be in cutting the vets? I like Martin, always have, but he didn't exactly wreck the league when he came up, and with Wallner flailing in AAA there's not a lot of depth behind him, especially not until someone like Emma gets moved up to AAA. With Brooks Lee dealing with an injury, that's cutting down the infield depth as well. So I don't see any real likelihood of a veteran position player getting cut before midseason, absent a trade (which is also unlikely to happen before at least midseason). It's really just the relievers who have to be concerned right now; Jackson is probably the most likely if anyone is in danger...and I don't think anyone really is. he's been fine, but not outstanding. He's been mostly in middle relief lower-leverage roles. He's the most fungible right now. Okert is a possibility, but he's pitched better than Thielbar so far and I don't see Thielbar going anywhere: he's been looking back to normal and has enough of a track record that he's going to earn some rope.
  22. jmlease1
    Rodriguez has also been playing CF; those "mediocre" fielding stats play up better in the corners, which is where he's almost certain to play if and when he reaches MLB. I'm not exactly worried about his ability to play a corner OF position effectively, and neither are the Twins. Dude is crushing it at AA at age 21 and sure looks on target to get time in AAA this season. Larnach probably won't be as good as Kepler has been because of Kepler's quality defense, but there's a real chance for him to be better on offense at least: he's 4 years younger, may have figured some things out at the plate, and Kepler's offensive production has rarely been strong. It's important to realize that in 9 full MLB seasons Kepler has only been an above average hitter in 3 of them. career OPS+ of 104. Larnach is sitting at 100 right now. He's a decent, if unspectacular, OF who has been mostly at DH as he recovers from turf toe. If the adjustments he's made at the plate are for real (and we won't know until we get at least another 100 ABs in him at the MLB level) then he's a quality corner OF. The problem with Kepler is how much do you want to invest when you don't know which Max you're going to get? Good Max that hits .250+ with solid power, takes his walks, and stays reasonably healthy? Or Bad Max that hits .220 with limited power, a lot of weak groundballs to the right side, and maybe isn't so healthy?
  23. jmlease1
    10 in a row, three sweeps, and two of them on the road? Love everything about that. Props to the Twins pitchers for not issuing a single free pass today. The sorry, no-account ChiSox certainly couldn't say the same, the Twins punished them for it. Ober chewed up enough innings so we didn't need anyone to try and go on back-to-back outings, which was exactly what you want to see on getaway day. Jax is doing a heck of a job, and with Duran and Stewart both back it should keep him from getting overused. Hopefully Buxton's injury isn't serious and this is just the kind of thing that needs a little maintenance since he's returning to full-on play this year. The good thing is, Martin has shown he can handle things in CF, so it's not like it was a few years ago where we were in desperation mode for OF. Miranda sure is taking advantage of his chances. Good for him! I'd like to see him grab a few more walks, but he's looking much more like the hitter we saw in 2022 and not like the guy who tried to play through injury in 2023. Red Sox series should be fun: hope people get to watch it!
  24. jmlease1
    If Ober has a good start today (and he's been looking good) they should be able to get through the game with Okert, Jax, and Stewart which would be great going into the off-day. They need to get some things figured out, but a 9-game winning streak is some fine deodorant. a 3rd straight sweep would be fantastic. they lost a lot of games to injury in April and made it through pretty well. If the bats stay cooking I think May will be a fine month.
  25. jmlease1
    A start like this is why many people are excited about Festa's prospects as a starter. the velocity is there, he can miss bats, and he can really put a side back on their heels. He's not a finished product by any means, but there's a lot to like there, and I feel like come June if we need another starter to come up and help us get through an injury or ineffectiveness...Festa will be ready for his first taste of MLB. Good to see Schobel get a couple of doubles. He's shown very little pop in his bat at AA so far, and while his ability to draw walks has been quite good, he's going to need to get more hard contact, not just contact in order to keep rising. Winokur is on a good roll right now, but I'd like to see him show better plate discipline and draw some walks. Still doing pretty well at 19 in A-ball though!
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