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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I suspect that in the interest of resting Buxton etc if Emma were the "4th" OF he'd be getting plenty of playing time. Wallner, Larnach, and Buxton would see more time at DH, Castro would play less in the OF, etc. Performance and injuries have a way of shaking these things out fairly well. If the Twins don't sign a veteran, there will be an opportunity for Rodriguez to push his way onto this roster. I'm good with it.
  2. jmlease1
    Yeah, not a hard call at all on tendering. Must offer him arbitration. Must. sadly, we shouldn't be having a serious conversation about whether or not to trade him with multiple years of team control and elite stuff in his arsenal, but the self-imposed payroll limits of the Pohlad Family somehow makes it a legit question. Which is horrible. He's an excellent pitcher and while 2024 wasn't as dominant as he's been in the previous 2 seasons, it's much more likely that's a result of the small sample sizes relievers often deal with rather than any serious decline. The bullpen would be substantially weaker without him and while Jax is more than capable of being the "closer", we're much better off having 2 of these guys
  3. jmlease1
    I'm baffled that people would be jumping on selling off Wallner who has been one of the Twins best players the last two seasons. Despite the bad start he finished the season with a 149 OPS+ and was one of the only LH bats we had that could be counted on to consistently punish RHP. He's been an excellent corner OF, and i can't support the idea of trading him because people don't like the style.
  4. jmlease1
    huge fan of Emma. He can absolutely hit and the ball explodes off his bat. It will be interesting to see if he needs to add more aggression to his approach at the plate to keep from ending up in too many 2-strike counts and make sure he's giving his bat the best opportunity to play up, but he's oozing talent. Assuming Carlos Santana is not back (due to self-imposed payroll limitations) and they still have enough confidence in Julien to roll with him at the start of the season, there's really only 1-2 spots for position players available. One would have to be for a backup CF; would the Twins be ready to roll with Emma in that spot, or will they prefer to have someone with more defensive chops? Helman could get a chance, Kiersey could be seen as an option (and if they roll with Kiersey, it's hard to see them keeping another LH OF bat out the gate, especially one with options and little time in AAA). Austin Martin was disappointing defensively and unimpressive at the plate, but works from the right side of the plate and does bring some speed and experience. I suspect Emma starts in AAA, but I'd love for him to crush in spring training and force the Twins hand. he's also never had trouble facing LHP, so maybe they'll be less scared of the platoon disadvantage in his case. Health is the only thing potentially holding him back, and my god I am sick of talking about health in relation to our best prospects!
  5. jmlease1
    It's the toughest question for me. The payroll side of things shouldn't be an issue for a player likely to make less than $2M...but with the Twins self-imposed limitations, it is. The difference between carrying Kirilloff and not, could mean signing the LH reliever they need. But the bigger issue is simply Kirilloff's inability to stay healthy. It's really hard to count on him as a player, and when he picks up a knock it's tended to show in his hitting. 2023 Kirilloff was actually pretty dang good as a hitter (less so defensively) and if we could get that version of him for 120 games, I'd be more enthusiastic. But it's so hard to know what we're going to get with him, and his struggles with LH pitchers limits him as well. I think the answer is yes, tender him. I think there's still enough of an asset in there that we shouldn't let him go for nothing...but I can't argue too hard with the people who think it's just not worth it any longer and that he's a sunk cost at this point who is never going to be both healthy and successful enough to keep giving a roster spot to.
  6. jmlease1
    That's my point, though: he's only played 6 games at AA and hasn't even turned 20 yet. Expecting him to make a big impact in MLB in 2025 might be premature. I think his ceiling is immense and I'm happy to be aggressive in promoting him (as the Twins have been so far), but he's much more likely to be an impact bat in 2026 in MLB, which would still be in his age-21 season. 21! That would be right in line with Hall of Famer Joe Mauer's development. Kala'i Rosario could be a more impactful bat in 2025. It's not a knock on Jenkins at all, I think he's a spectacular prospect and will have more impact in the end than any other player currently in our minor league system. I'm just trying to be a little more realistic about when that's likely to start. And if he's in MLB at 21, then it's an unqualified success. I love Keaschall as well, but I expect him to be more advanced having played 3 years of college. His power was down a little in AA, and I expect the elbow injury had a fair bit to do with that. I expect great things from him the way he looked last season, but it might take a little time for him to get back in the groove, and while he may be ready for spring training...he may not. Recovery is what it is. If he hadn't had a significant surgery, I'd be more optimistic about his chances to have a big impact in 2025. The following season seems more likely to me? It will also be very interesting to see where he lands for a position: the elbow limited his time in the field last season for sure. But he's shown interesting positional flexibility; could he be a "10th starter" in 2026 who hits the snot out of the ball wherever he plays and puts up solid defense at 3-4 positions? Oh darn...
  7. jmlease1
    First off, Walker Jenkins did not continue to hit for power when he got to AA, nor did he handle advanced pitching particularly well. He's an awesome prospect and I'm not the least bit concerned about him, but he put up an OPS of .450 in AA with 1 XBH. He also still still hasn't turned 20 yet, so again: not worried. But I don't expect him to have a big impact on the Twins in 2025: that's going to happen in 2026. He's going to be back in AA this season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's in AAA at midseason. But I suspect he's going to need a little time and work in the high minors to adjust to better pitching. Hardly a crime, considering he's going to be 20. Keaschall might be an option, but I'm a little more skeptical until we see how he's recovered from the TJ. Yes, it's not as significant for hitters as it is for pitchers, but it's still a substantial surgery. Without the injury, I would have said we'd see him for sure in 2025, but he may have been set back a little because of it. Still a great prospect. Emma is the one who should be the impact player in 2025. If he can stay healthy. He looks 100% ready to tackle advanced pitching, has a vicious swing and a disciplined approach, is a solid fielder and we could use his LH power bat. Kepler will be gone and while I would expect Wallner and Larnach to get the first shot in the corners, Larnach's injury history suggests that Emma will get a chance to come in and prove his quality. I'm excited to see what he does.
  8. jmlease1
    They also liked the "closer" role as it evolved into 1 inning, 9th inning guy, in a save situation because it maximized their value on the market, because teams were substantially over-paying players for the save stat. So a lot of that also had to do with money. But the league as a whole has (correctly) gotten away from treating their "closer" as a 9th inning save guy to going back to the classic fireman role where the best reliever slams the door on the heart on the other teams lineup regardless of whether it's the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. Which actually isn't a new strategy at all, more a repudiation of what developed in the 90's.
  9. jmlease1
    It will be very interesting to see how Moran pitches when he's back on the mound and when he actually starts really throwing. not unusual for pitchers to throw even harder after the procedure, but the real (only?) issue for Moran is whether he can locate his stuff consistently enough. Love his changeup. he's always going to walk some guys, but he also has the stuff where it doesn't necessarily matter that much if he puts a couple of guys on from time to time. A reliever can be a bit wilder than a starter and still be very effective when they have K-rates like Moran. Really hope he comes back in good shape.
  10. jmlease1
    Caleb Ferguson interests me; I'm not too worried about his "down" season this year. the peripherals still look solid, and it's possible that throwing his cutter more will increase his effectiveness. twins have shown a solid ability to boost pitchers by tweaking their pitch mix. I hope other teams are scared off by the "down" season so we can afford him. he's still under 30 and doesn't get killed by RH, so he seems like a good fit, even if he's not historically pure death to all LH hitters. I'd be in on Bummer too, but I suspect Atl picks up the option. be great if they don't! Moran and Prielipp are intriguing options to me for internal choices, and maybe Funderburk can get it together, but I'm hoping the Twins have signed at least one more proven LHP for the bullpen. It's easily their biggest need that's not needing to be in fantasy land with their self-imposed payroll limitations.
  11. jmlease1
    I'm disappointed to not see de Andrade too, but he may have had a setback, it's hard to know. The other thing too is SS innings are usually at a premium in the AFL, so maybe it's been hard to fit him in as well? (the Twins don't have total control of the team) Rodriguez is probably still getting well; he wasn't fully healthy at the end of the year and I'm sure they want to make certain he's right before putting him back on the field. Walker Jenkins is just coming out of A-ball and is super young, I'm sure they didn't feel the need to get him more ABs since he finished the season doing ok, even if he struggled in his cup of coffee at AA. Keaschall is still rehabbing from surgery, no way is he ready for the AFL. Rosario is doing very well, and it's good to see him making plenty of contact. He's got a nice opportunity in front of him if he can take the next step. ben Ross is not doing so well. He needed to come to the AFL and show he could hit, and so far he's not getting there. He's got a nice glove, but hasn't hit above A-ball and that trend is continuing in the AFL (and the pitching is generally a bit below AA standard). Not boding well for him. It's still a small sample, but...
  12. jmlease1
    I think the trades grades here are about right. I might have given the Twins a better grade on the Dodgers deal if Margot hadn't been so poor but he really crapped out and played too much. Noah Miller is an excellent defensively player, but he can't hit. He's never put up an OPS over .700 in his professional career: not in rookie ball, nowhere. Yes, he's been a younger player at every stop, but he's also not shown any real improvement as a hitter as he's moved up. He's got no power, still strikes out plenty, and I'm pretty confident that his ability to draw walks will decline as he faces more advanced pitchers that realize that he can't really hurt him if they pitch in the zone. It's too bad, because his glove is excellent. But if he doesn't improve as a hitter soon, he's got little future even with that glove. (even someone like Andrelton Simmons, who we think of as an all-glove, no-hit player could at least put up an OPS over .700 in the minors) Doncon had some injury issues this year, but overall had a successful season, earning promotion to High A and holding his own there. There's more upside there, making it a solid if unspectacular trade for the Twins, but the Margot implosion drags it back down.
  13. jmlease1
    I think you picked the wrong Erickson: Scott Erickson should have made this list. Not his fault the team didn't call him up until July of 1990 (guess they "needed" to see more innings from the immortal Roy Smith and David West), but he was in AA. But Scott dropped an ERA+ of 145 in the second half as a rookie coming up without pitching an inning in AAA and previewed his 1991 that helped win a title. Roger threw a ton of innings (it was the 70's after all), but was below league average.
  14. jmlease1
    If you're just judging on their official "rookie" season, then Teufel wins out fairly handily. Knoblauch may have been RoY, but Tuefel was 4th in his season and had a solidly better OPS+ and bWAR. Knoblauch had a far, far better career but this exercise was based just on their official rookie campaign, so Teufel is a fair pick.
  15. jmlease1
    Anyone who gets injured as much as Gil and leads the league in walks might not really be a contender for "staff ace". (He also was wild and not particularly good in the ALCS and the supposed ROY wasn't good enough to pitch in the ALDS) He was a 19 year-old pitcher who had never thrown above rookie ball and had already experienced a significant injury. Sometimes lottery tickets come home. But it still took another 6 seasons for Gil to make the NY rotation, and more injuries were in there. If you're getting too upset over this one, you're basically saying you can never trade any prospect with upside for anything. Cave gave us a couple of solid seasons as a backup (at a time when we needed a player like him in the OF). This kind of deal happens all the time and usually the prospect flames out. We've been on the other side of this kind of deal too. Not really rooting for either of these reality-warping teams to win, but I guess I'd rather have Ohtani get a title if forced to pick. because the only time I've ever even mildly favored the Yankees was when they were playing Atlanta in 1996. And I sort of regret it.
  16. jmlease1
    I'm a fan of Festa, and I think he's got a chance to be a really good starter. If he manages to be around league average on his BB/9 that will put him in a position for success. I'm a big fan of his changeup; yes it got hit hard at times in 2024, but you look at the difference between the SLG and the xSLG and it suggests he may have been a little unlucky there. the pitch definitely is one to watch. He's got some things to work on in order to thrive in MLB, but he didn't sink in his first taste of MLB. I see him as the first call-up from AAA this year (assuming Ryan and Paddack are both ready by Spring training), and if they make a move in the MLB rotation he could be back from the jump. I wouldn't be mad if Festa spent a few weeks in AAA working on some things to improve his success in MLB, but if they move off Paddack, I think he's the next man up.
  17. jmlease1
    I do think that the FO doesn't see putting big money into relievers as being a good investment, and I tend to agree with them.
  18. jmlease1
    I think it's hard to add bullpen pieces through free agency because most relievers are pretty fungible from year to year. Only the elite guys are consistently great (and even they will have dips), which is why it's often bad business to spend significant money on relievers. I think the Twins are on the right path for the their bullpen, building primarily from within. Duran and Jax are clearly guys you can count on in high leverage situations. Sands did very well this year and appears to have made changes that can hopefully hold up (in other words, it's not just luck and a small sample). Alcala has increased his velocity and looks healthy; despite his implosions he was a quality reliever overall and no longer gets lit up by every LH hitter who can hold a bat. I think they need to end the experiments with guys coming off significant injuries and waste fewer roster spots on aging veterans that may have little left. That alone probably improves things. Topa & Stewart are both talented, but an injury risk. Let's not expect more than one of them to be healthy. Adding Varland should help; he's shown he can be effective as a reliever, despite the bumps this season. Going into the year knowing what his role will be should help him adjust. Finding another LHP who doesn't get murdered by RH hitters is the biggest need. I'm ok with bringing back Thielbar for one more round (he's not expensive, the stuff was still good) but he should be the 2nd lefty now. Okert is not the answer: he destroyed LH hitters, but got annihilated by the righties, and you can't have a LOOGY any longer. Duran, Jax, Alcala, Sands, Varland, Thielbar, LHP To be Named Later, and Topa/Stewart is a good bullpen. Hopefully the offense can give them more 3-5 run leads rather than 1-run leads to protect.
  19. jmlease1
    I don't understand this at all. A failed starter becomes a good reliever, has one elite season, and if the team doesn't move him back to starting because he'd like to try it again they're a trash organization, deserve to lose the player and lose 100 games? They're obviously not going to blow Jax off, tell him to eff off, sit in the bullpen and stop whining. But I cannot understand how it's crazy for the Twins (who have a fair amount of starting pitching depth available to them) to prefer to keep Jax in the bullpen, where he has had far and away his most success...and the team has the greatest need. It's an out of the box idea to move Jax back into the rotation, but the odds are pretty good that it won't actually be a successful one. He simply did not have the fastball velocity as a starter to be effective in that role, but in the bullpen he's been able to add it. Which is more likely: Jax maintains his velocity as a starter with a fastball around 97mph, or loses some velocity when pitching 5+ innings to 94 mph? Jax's fastball remains as effective when he's throwing it 93-95mph as it is when he's throwing it 96-98mph? Jax is able to be successful throwing his fastball 30% of the time as a starter, or needs to throw it 40% or more? Jax's pitches remains as a effective when hitters get to see them more than once per game, or become less effective? Moving Jax back to the rotation might work. I'm not saying it's impossible. (it seems unlikely; how many pitchers who struggled as a starter, moved to the bullpen, and then went back to starting in the last 30 years? And were successful?) But the idea that not doing it, that not giving Jax an opportunity in Spring Training to start again, and keeping him in the bullpen where he was excellent is some kind of terminal malpractice is just bizarre to me.
  20. jmlease1
    I don't think the Twins organization stinks in reputation league-wide. their ownership may be viewed with some derision around the league, at least by players, for not spending on FA but otherwise the twins are in a respectable place with everybody except their own fans. And it's not ignoring Jax's input to disagree with it. They can consider his request without having to do it. Players are notorious bad at knowing where their own limits are. If you asked a pitcher, they'd almost never think they needed to come out of a game. A hitter always thinks he can get a base knock against the next pitcher, no matter who it is. You can't expect objective opinions from them. I don't like it one bit when my boss ignores my input. But I also don't expect my boss to substitute my opinion for theirs all the time either, especially on major issues that they have expertise on. I expect to be consulted on areas I have expertise and on duties I'm expect to perform. I expect to have an opportunity to air my opinion and have it taken seriously. I don't expect to always get my way.
  21. jmlease1
    here's the thing though: how much of Jax's improvement in his stuff is related to him being able to be a max-effort guy for 1-2 innings and not having to pace himself through 5-7? His sweeper in 2021 was his best pitch even then; it's gotten better but the bigger difference might be how much more often he's throwing it as a % of pitches. but the real problem he had as a starter was his fastball just wasn't up to snuff and hitters could wait on it and not chase sweepers out of the zone. He's not spinning it and faster, just throwing it harder and with better extension. that's much easier to maintain 1-2 innings at a time than 5-7. he'd also need his 3rd pitch (changeup, i assume) to stay quality and that's been up and down on him. In relief he can drop the changeup if he doesn't have a feel for it and it's no big deal. gets to be a problem as a starter. but the biggest question is whether or not Jax could maintain a velocity of 95-97 mph consistently for an entire game and a full season starting. because otherwise, I don't think his fastball can compete. When it was 92-93 mph it got hit and got hit hard.
  22. jmlease1
    Short answer: No. Longer answer: he wasn't very good as a starter in MLB, and his fastball simply didn't play up well enough. as he's added velocity and throw it less, it's done much better. It's hard to believe that he'll be able to maintain that velocity as a starter, or be able to keep throwing this volume of sweepers back in the rotation. more importantly, he's been excellent as a reliever. Why would you risk taking someone out of a role they've done well in, that the team has a real need for consistent performance at, to place them back in a role they haven't been effective at? they have starting pitching depth that's worth exploring. here's the other thing: Jax was good as a reliever in 2022 & 2023, but not so dominant that anyone was talking about him going back to starting. He was dominant in 2024, but that's no guarantee he'll be this dominant in 2025. relievers often have spikes in performance. While there's every reason to believe Jax can continue to be excellent in the bullpen, some regression would also be perfectly reasonable (and still would make him a quality reliever). but if he does regress, no one would be talking about him starting any longer. Leave him in the bullpen. He's great there, and we need him to be great there.
  23. jmlease1
    These are pretty good questions, i think. Catcher: yes, they can move Vazquez's contract and they probably should. Too many payroll limitations, and while he's capable of a hot month or 2, the overall performance at the plate is almost certainly going to be poor. The defense may be quality, but $10M is too much for a backup so if they can find someone to take him without throwing in more than like a C prospect, let's do it. 1B: tough call on Kirilloff. Such a sweet swing when he's healthy. he's never healthy. I'm less concerned about his defense; I think he'd probably end up doing fine at 1B if he played there consistently and knew that was his spot going in to a season, but how's he supposed to play consistently if he's never healthy? I think the answer is..."how much is he actually making?" UGH. 2B: I still believe in Julien, and hopefully a new hitting coach can help get him out of his own head. The talent is there, but he seemed to stop trusting his own pitch recognition abilities. Fixing him makes it easier to move on from Kirilloff too, as Julien could slide to 1B. SS: I think Lee is the backup here. He looked solid enough, has been playing the spot fairly regularly, and it keeps Castro free to float (and not get exposed by playing him too much). 3B: Time to have a good conversation in the offseason about where Lewis fits best and involve him in the decision. Maybe it's 2B, maybe not, but this is the time to decide. Miranda should be the backup at at 3B and platoon with a LH hitter at 1B. LF: I still think Martin has more to give, but he's better suited to a 4th OF role. Figuring out the platoon advantage might need to be something that is the lowest priority for now and gets "solved" when someone like Keaschall or Rosario breaks through. I think I'd rather patch it together with Martin, some Castro, and letting guys like Larnach and Wallner get exposed to more ABs against LH pitching. While I agree that you should take advantage of the platoon splits, the twins have overused this and run themselves into late-inning disadvantage. Maybe this doesn't need to be as much of a priority. CF: I'm not opposed to giving Kiersey more of a chance. he certainly has nothing left to prove in AAA. I don't think there's much payroll money to fill here, and i don't want another Margot. let the "young" guys play. RF: Wallner is going to have a slump, and it's going to make people crazy. Wallner is also going to work out of it. He's earned the right to do that. Give him RF and try not to let the K's make you too crazy.
  24. jmlease1
    But it's 36 PAs. The sample is just too small to get too hung up on BB% or K% rates. 1 game where a player takes 2-3 walks changes things too much. You're correct that Wallner didn't get it figured out in A-ball; his breakout as a hitter was in AA, but keep in mind he was nearly 3 years older than Rosario when he first hit AA. And I'd love to know more about how Wallner was put on notice that he had no future in the game at any part of his career to date? Rosario is in the AFL to get some swings in and make sure that he's got his mechanic locked in since he missed so much time during the regular season. He's showing an improved performance in the AFL over his first stint there. He's not in any danger of the club giving up on him. That's where Ben Ross is. He's got to show he can hit, because so far he hasn't been able to do it at AA. He can field well enough, but he's not so outstanding out there that he can make it as a no-hit, all-glove guy. And the big pile of walks he's taking in the AFL aren't actually helping his case much, because he's showing little power and not hitting.
  25. jmlease1
    Probably not, but they'll forgive it in a small sample when he's hitting .300 with a SLG% over .500, I think. If he's showing he can make contact and do damage when he swings and otherwise shows good control of the zone, they're less likely to panic over the K/BB ratio. Historically, his challenge has been more around making enough contact rather than plate discipline.
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