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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Santana works counts and gets on base, which makes him a reasonable choice to lead off when Julien isn't in the lineup. When Julien is playing, I would expect him to lead off as he gets on base a ton and has shown an affinity for steals in the minors that will likely be deployed more this season.
  2. jmlease1
    I think the idea of Lorenzen makes more sense if you actually know that DeSclafani is going to have surgery and be out for the year (or be out at least until the all-star break or something). Right now, it's speculation. It's not unfounded, but fans going "it's a forearm strain! that means TJ, he's done for the year." doesn't mean it's reality. Seems unlikely that the Twins would try and make this move without knowing more about where DeSclafani actually is, instead of guessing, which is the scenario we currently have. It's not ideal to jump on the depth immediately, but Varland is more than capable of taking the ball to start the season. is the AAA depth good enough to withstand another injury to the rotation early in the year? A little more questionable; I think everyone would be happier if Festa and SWR could get in a month or more of starts in AAA first. but unless we know DeSclafani is for sure out for months (or the year), I don't seem them trying to buy more insurance with Lorenzen.
  3. jmlease1
    did I miss the announcement that DeSclafani is out for the year? I mean, maybe he will be, but until they actually slate him for surgery...
  4. jmlease1
    I'm not worried about Duran or Thielbar at this point; while Duran is a big loss because he's so dominant and oblique injuries can linger, the bullpen is deep enough to handle it. (come on down, Jose Alcala!) We have a lefty ready to go with Okert and a second that looks ready to step up in Funderburk. Desclafani is definitely a bit disheartening, even if was expected he wouldn't be ready to go on Opening Day because this seems to be a bit more serious than a guy just working his way back from injury. While I don't expect to see any major drop off with varland taking his innings, I do have concerns about the rotation depth when delving into it so early. That said, with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland at least we're not counting on a bunch of guys in their mid-to-late 30's? (on the other hand, Ober & Paddack have both had real injury troubles, and Ryan and Lopez haven't been entirely immune in their careers either....) not worried about Buxton being scratched at this point; it's a spring training game and they're going to be extra cautious with him, just in case. I'd bet all the money in my pockets against all the money in yours that if it had been an actual game he would have played and never hit the injury report. no disasters yet...let's hope none of the starters go down early.
  5. jmlease1
    you did suggest that Graterol was elite, though, and that's a little more questionable. He's had one elite season (2023), but there were some underlying numbers that should make you wonder whether he might have been a little lucky in there. And beyond that, we've seen many times that relievers can have an outstanding season of results and follow it up with a season where they're just another guy. I'd want him to prove it over more than one season, which Duran has done. Graterol is a certainly a good reliever, but not yet in Duran's class.
  6. jmlease1
    I mean, even with the big injury to Maeda, he still threw 50 more innings for the Twins than Graterol has for the Dodgers. The Twins really really needed the starter at that point, and as it's harder to and more expensive to find and keep starters...I'm still fine with this trade for the Twins, regardless of anything Raley might end up doing.
  7. jmlease1
    sure, but let's not pretend he was an all-star caliber player. He's a very streaky hitter on a terrible team that needed to be represented on the squad. Yes, he can crush fastballs...but is he going to see any if it matters? There's a reason he was pretty bad with RISP, and better with the bases open then with anyone on. He's a starter on a bad team. I have more faith in Kepler this season than I do Rooker. again, much like with Raley: it's nice for these guys that they had successful seasons. It doesn't mean that the teams that let them go were necessarily all that wrong about them. Wallner is younger and was as productive last season as Rooker was in about half the PT, and Wallner is substantially better defensively. And it made sense that SD didn't see him as passing their guys either. (A bit more surprising that he never got much of a chance in KC, because they stunk in 2022) Same with Raley: a not particularly good defender who had a hot first half in his age 28 season. There's a reason TB dealt him for a good defensive 2B, and he's going to be fighting for a job as a utility/4th OF now with Seattle. how much more upside is in Rooker or Raley? How likely is it that they're going to be back in the sub/replacement player range again soon?
  8. jmlease1
    I think when you start looking at 3rd order impacts to evaluate a trade you're going down a rabbit hole with no end. It doesn't matter than Luke Raley had a good 2023 for TB or Beeter is a potential rotation guy for the Yankees: they're neither of those things for the Dodgers, and it's not like Raley or Beeter was immediately turned into something. (BTW, good luck on Beeter being a real choice for the yankees; dude might hunt Ks in the minors, but a 4.9 BB/9 for a guy who wasn't exactly unhittable in AAA isn't likely to do more than make some spot starts, get killed and sent back to the minors.) Twins took a chance on Maeda staying healthy and while it didn't work out for them, the trade has still been good and the kind of deal I would still make. Starters are harder to find than relievers, and even with Maeda missing an entire season, he still threw 50 more innings for the Twins than Graterol has done for the Dodgers. yes, Graterol had an excellent season in 2023, but it's far and away his best season as a pro and from what we know about relievers and some of his underlying numbers...is it really likely to be repeated? I agree with the sentiment though that this was a deal where both teams got what they wanted: Twins needed a starter who could throw at the top end of their rotation, Dodgers needed a reliever with upside. Both teams got it. Raley having a good half season (notably, he was much worse in the 2nd half and played a lot less) really doesn't impact this deal. Camargo is the only other player outside of the principals still in either team's system, and if he turns out to be a quality backup MLB catcher...nice work by the Twins front office to grab a guy at a position of need.
  9. jmlease1
    Yep, I was one of the ones who was about ready to DFA Kepler last season. (For me the reason he "deserved" to be saved was they still had Gallo on the roster who was much worse and basically unplayable) I'm thrilled he turned it around last season and had a great second half. Can he do it again? He's a complicated player: he's always produced as a starter; his worst season (2017) he still turned in 1.9 bWAR. He's never really had a terrible season, but he's also never had another offensive season like 2019, nor a defensive one like 2018. He's had some injuries, but you could always count on him to play 70% of the team's games or more. He has (had?) the ability to play a reasonable CF...but didn't want to? (he's better suited to LF than Wallner, but there's really never been any real conversation about moving him there) He's always hit RHP well and had the typical 15+% reduction in OPS against LHP. I'd be nervous about extending him, but I'm still happy to have him for another season. His contract extension worked out just fine...but would another one go as well? I believe in Wallner's ability to make enough contact and his laser arm to make him a very viable RF going forward, so I think it's likely this may be the last hurrah with Kepler who was always decent to good, but never really took that next step that seemed to be happening in 2018-2019. With some of the OF hitting talent coming up through the minors, I think RF is in reasonable shape?
  10. jmlease1
    AK has been below average defensively everywhere he's played and while he was projected to be a quality defender at 1B, so far he hasn't shown it. Now, how much of that is because of his injuries? Hard to know, and there's still time for him to develop into a good defender at 1B, but so far he hasn't been good. I do think locking Kirilloff in at DH is something of a waste, but he's got to find a way to get through a season without the kind of arm/shoulder injuries that have plagued him to date, because it's very obvious in his hitting when he's not right, and it likely harms his ability in the field as well. Miranda has a ways to go. I'm not ready to giver up on him by any means, but it's also sounded like he's not fully recovered from off-season surgery. If he can get it back and get comfortable at 1B he and Kirilloff could be a heck of a platoon for next season.
  11. jmlease1
    I think you're very far out in right field, left field, any field if you think Wallner's going to start the season in AAA. The Twins value MLB results more than spring training showings (justifiably) and Wallner was very good last season. he's not a great OF, but he's not awful either and his biggest asset as a defender (the elite arm) doesn't showcase as much value once guys stop running on him. To put Wallner in context, though: he's played about half as many games as Larnach and accumulated the same amount of bWAR. The power is legit, he's not afraid to get hit if a pitcher tries to go inside on him, and he doesn't start chasing when he's struggling to make contact. A pitcher grooving one on a 3-1 count is flirting with disaster. If Kepler weren't still here, he'd already be making the transition back to RF, where he'll do better once he's gotten used to the vagaries of the MLB RF. I think it's likely that happens next season with one of the young guys trying to seize LF (Martin's range plays well there, E-Rod can certainly handle it, and if Rosario's hit his way into pushing for a MLB job he'll do fine there too) Margot & Castro should fill in fine handling the tougher lefties; we might even see Farmer get a little run out there if needed. LF looks pretty solid going into the year.
  12. jmlease1
    Except that Miranda hits RH and while Santana switch-hits, he's much better against LHP at this point. So it's not really a good platoon fit. I still like Miranda and hope that he can get past the shoulder troubles and be an impact bat. If he does, he could be a nice platoon partner for Kirilloff at 1B next season when Santana moves on, or even in this season if Santana is cooked/gets hurt. But he's not really a fit to platoon with Santana.
  13. jmlease1
    Kirilloff is the one most likely to have the biggest impact: he's on the 26-man roster from day 1, and if he can stay healthy he's already shown he can be an impact bat. I think he's still in the twins long-term plans, but they're going to keep hedging against him until he shows he can stay healthy. Alcala will almost certainly get another big chance this year; I think he's already in the Twins short-to-midterm plans as a middle reliever/set-up guy...but I also think they look at most relievers as being somewhat fungible and don't expect to have a reliever as a core piece for more than a few years. Miranda is the one who has the toughest road. He doesn't have a clear position, he still looks like he's getting past the injury, and he has other players of a similar age that have jumped past him, while also having guys from the minors pushing as well. Hard to see him back at 3B, almost no chance he's in the mix at 2B (which was his preferred position), so he'll need to find his way at 1B, where he could be a fine platoon partner for another guy on this list going forward, but he'll have to hit. I think Kirilloff and Alcala are in the Twins plans right now, but they're not being counted on as core performers like they were previously thought to be or projected to be. One of the best abilities you can have in sports is availability. All three of these guys have come up short there.
  14. jmlease1
    His success will depend on whether or not he can command the changeup he was developing before the big arm injury knocked him out for basically the year. Alcala has been death to righties with the fastball-slider combo, but needed a different result to be effective against lefties. It looked like it was starting to come around, but we really won't know until he gets another shot at MLB hitters outside of spring training. The velocity is looking like it's back where it needs to be, he's got a weapon in the slider, and if he can command the change he's going to be a very effective reliever if he can stay healthy. I'm a fan of his ability. He's got the talent to pitch late innings, not just be a 6th inning kind of guy. What's unknown to me is how many innings he can pitch in a typical outing; is he strictly a 1 inning guy, or can he get 3-6 outs as needed?
  15. jmlease1
    it's spring training. really hard to get a good read out of that; we've seen guys destroy the ball who couldn't get a hit later. we've seen guys cold as ice have a fine season. Always rather have a good spring training than a bad one, but I've stopped getting excited about numbers and just hope for health.
  16. jmlease1
    If he repeats last year, he's a borderline all-star. His glove would play up a little better in RF over LF (less room to cover and the arm matters more) but he's not bad out there, even if he looks a little awkward at times. He's faster than people realize, it just takes him a bit to get going. i could see his numbers improving this season as he gets more comfortable playing at Target Field and just knowing better how balls play off the bat there. He's not going to be great against LHP pitching, but he's probably better than last season might have suggested: hard to really judge when a guy only gets 46 PAs against them last season. And since he's likely to be the first choice to get platooned for Margot if Buxton is healthy, his exposure will be fairly limited again. Which will continue to make it harder to know exactly how well (or less bad) he really is against LHP but also limits any harm he could cause by facing them. It will be interesting to see if pitchers can exploit his lack of contact; I don't see them having substantially more success in making him chase pitches. His plate discipline is strong and he maintained it last season even during some tougher stretches at the plate where the Ks were really piling up and finished the season very strong.
  17. jmlease1
    SS is in pretty good shape right now (like the entire infield, really). If there's a negative, there's not necessarily an heir apparently to Correa in the system right now (Lewis is locking in at 3B, maybe he could slide back over; Lee consistently has questions asked; Castro is better as a utility guy; Farmer is here now, but might not be here past this season; Noah Miller was traded...leaving Danny DeAndrade, who hasn't played a game above Low A yet). But with the expectation that Correa can stay at SS for at least the next 3 seasons, there's time to work on that pipeline again. I know the metrics didn't have Correa as having a particularly good year at SS, and I think that's probably right: the foot injury almost certainly hampered his ability to make a strong first move, slowed him down a little more when foot speed was never a strong point, and even hindered his throwing with stress planting on the foot. But even with that...he still made the plays out there. I expect his numbers to tick up this season if he really is healthy and feeling good like he appears to be. The positioning is still excellent, the arm is elite, and he really does QB the defense for the infield out there. Watch for 2022 Correa to be out there again.
  18. jmlease1
    Context matters. Sure, Dobnak was basically a "5 and Fly" pitcher, but he was also effective before the injuries basically ruined his career...and the Twins were notably very short on pitching when they signed him to that deal. Locking down a starting pitcher for 4 years at $2M per season looked like it might be really nice business at a time when guys like Lance Lynn would come in at $12M for a season and not even want to be here and we were trying to piece together rotations with Martin Perez and hoping Pineda could get through a season, or trying to claw something together with Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. The Dobnak deal didn't work out because of injuries, but it wasn't a crazy idea and you can't predict injuries, especially one like a tendon rupture. If Dobnak is healthy this season, he could be good insurance against a run of starting pitcher injuries.
  19. jmlease1
    I hope Sabato saved his signing bonus and invested it carefully.
  20. jmlease1
    Cuddy & Koskie might both be fun. Mientkiewicz? I'm sure he'd have things to say. Always Johan. Would also like to hear from Greg Gagne, Brian Harper, and Juan Berenguer if they were interested. how about the return of naked BP and Mike Redmond? LOL Brad Radke and the Art of Not Walking Dudes?
  21. jmlease1
    I will say I think the Twins have a competitive advantage in signing former MLB players to minor-league contracts having their AAA franchise be in Saint Paul. Considering what a massive pain it is to be moving around all the time, knowing that you can sign a deal with the Twins and get one apartment and not have to move if you get called up has to be a selling point for some of these guys. (I bet it makes being a player who bounces back and forth a bunch of times from AAA to MLB during a season a heck of a lot easier too) Not sure Brigham is going to do much, but I don't mind the Twins taking a flyer on him to see if there's something to unlock. As long as you don't buy too many of these lottery tickets, it's fine.
  22. jmlease1
    Literally every thread about Brooks Lee has at least someone suggesting moving Royce Lewis to the OF. Most threads about the OF, especially related to Buxton and his ability to play CF someone wants to move Royce Lewis to the OF. Every thread about Royce Lewis has someone suggesting moving him to the OF. I would say yes, there are fans who keep pushing the idea of moving him to the OF. I don't think it's with ill-intent or anything, and it would be a way to potentially put the best players in the lineup most often...but the front office has stated pretty clearly that their plan is to keep him on the dirt, so it's a little wild for it to keep coming up as if it were realistic, especially since he has little experience there. Some of this feels more like fantasy baseball managing rather than actual MLB.
  23. jmlease1
    I'm really excited to (hopefully) see a full season of Correa and Lewis as the left-side of the infield. I think that could be awesome. Correa is really smart when it comes to positioning defensively and I'm sure that will help Lewis' development at 3B as well. And I think both will hit. SS & 3B are in very good hands.
  24. jmlease1
    I think if Kirilloff shows star talent at 1B and has a big, healthy year it's still far more likely that Julien gets moved to being a primary DH than Lewis gets moved to the OF. Everything the Twins have done and said has them installing Lewis as the every day 3B. Julien had a heck of a year mostly playing 2B and they're still giving Brooks Lee reps there, and likely will give him more time there than at 3B. Kirilloff is more likely to spend time in the OF than Lewis, but fans keep banging away on this "move Lewis to the OF" shtick. The only way Lewis is moving off 3B this season is if he gets hurt himself and doesn't play the position, Correa gets hurt and they decide they'd rather have Lewis step back in at SS rather than have Lee try to go there (not sure which way they would go there, but I'm guessing they, like me, would rather not think about it until they need to), or Lewis completely implodes this season.
  25. jmlease1
    we did. and before the payroll cut I would have said we would have been thrilled with him accepting...now, I'm afraid the FO was thrilled he declined (which everyone expected) because who knows what they would have had to do to get within the ownership's self-imposed payroll limits? That said: Gray left his start yesterday with a hamstring issue...
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