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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Walker Jenkins has definitely found his groove in Cedar Rapids. Not bad at all for 19. He's a heck of a prospect. Happy to see Rosario back in Wichita and getting some hits right away. I still like him as a player, and it's been a bummer he's missed so much time. I still don't know what to think about Raya. He's been ok this year in AA, he's been pitching deeper into games...compared to last year, at least. He can hunt Ks effectively, but is giving up too many free passes and looks more hittable. Really not sure what his future is.
  2. jmlease1
    See, this is the problem: you're doing this all on feel and guesswork. bWAR is a stat, it's just not a stat you like, so your dismiss it. How are you coming up with Miranda preventing 5 losses, and giving us 5 more wins if he had 100 more ABs? You don't have anything to back it up other than "he's a better hitter". He is a better hitter, but is he so much better a hitter and good enough defensively at 1B to be that much of a difference-maker at 1B? Since you don't have any real criteria, you can never be proven right or wrong about anything. Miranda spent 9 games in AAA this season. If we hadn't signed Santana and started Miranda at 1B this season, how would we have done when Royce went down? I'm not drinking the kool-aid, I'm being clear-eyed about this front office, and not pretending they suck because of style. They're not perfect: the Mahle trade was a real risk and a total bust. If GG doesn't pan out, the Polanco trade isn't going to look good (even with Polanco being diminished, something the league clearly recognized regarding his market). They haven't done well as buyers at the deadline, either missing opportunities or busting out. But we're seeing a real flow of young players up to the majors with a competitive club and a strong farm system, and the cupboard was looking a little bare when they arrived.
  3. jmlease1
    I hope Rodriguez is able to get some game time in before the end of the season and finish up healthy and positive. Bummer that the hand/wrist issues have kept him off the field so much, because he was a having a great season. Tons of talent there, and his plate discipline will serve him well as he heads towards MLB. dude can flat-out hit. Maybe he'll be a candidate for the AFL or some winter league work this off-season. Jenkins is doing great, really turned it on lately as he's gotten more comfortable in high A. Not bad at all for 19! It'll be interesting to see how fast the team pushes him next year. He might be ready for AA from the jump, but there's a reasonable argument for him to start next season back at cedar rapids. Regardless, I expect him to spend most of his time in Wichita and it's going to be fun to see how he fares against more advanced pitching. Dude has all the tools, despite being so young. Please stay healthy! Love seeing these two OFs rise through the system.
  4. jmlease1
    there's a lot of cherry-picking going on here. Take the all-star conversation: Twins had 2 this season, both signed by this front office. They had 2 last season, both signed by this front office. Luis Arraez may not have been drafted/signed by this FO but they certainly developed him and he was an all-star for the Twins in 2022 (along with Buxton). 2021 we stunk, but Nelson Cruz was an all-star, signed by the current FO. under the current format it's going to be challenging for the Twins to get more than 2 all-stars, so maybe evaluating success purely on all-star appearances doesn't make much sense. Reading your evaluation, someone unfamiliar with the twins might think they have no quality home-grown talent...but that's simply wrong. SWR might not have been drafted by the twins, but they certainly developed him and he's been a quality starter. Griffin Jax wasn't drafted by this regime, but they turned him into an elite reliever. they traded for Duran and developed him into an elite reliever too. Traded for and developed Alcala. Drafted Sands. So our top 4 relievers this season were all developed by this front office. and these are quality players with tons of value. the idea that our farm system at the end of the 2nd Ryan era was better than it is now is a bold statement; would love to see where the facts are to back it up. Twins current farm system is a consensus top 10, and that's after graduating players like Royce Lewis, SWR, Ed Julien, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner in the last couple of seasons. the "87 wins" line is nicely arbitrary and designed to make this front office look worse than it is. because it nicely avoids the fact that the team made the playoffs 4 out of 7 seasons and pretends that there wasn't a pandemic year where literally no team could possibly win 87 games, because they only played 60. They've won the division 3 times in 7 seasons. How did we do in the previous 7? won the division once (in the first of those 7 seasons), then finished last 4 times. Didn't win a playoff series. Didn't win a playoff GAME.
  5. jmlease1
    See, you're using your own term for "replacement level". I use that term in the context of bWAR, which defines it like this: WAR Explained (v2.2): 8+ MVP, 5+ A-S, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Sub, < 0 Replacement "Replacement" level is a guy you can sign off the street and do the job just as well. Santana is sitting at 2.1 bWAR for the season already.
  6. jmlease1
    Santana is a replacement level signing? he's sitting at 2.1 bWAR right now with a 109 OPS+, despite the horrifically slow start. Instead of getting hit by the aging stick, he's been basically the same player as last season and getting paid $1M less. That's neither replacement level nor horrendous, and without him we'd be flailing at 1B this year. Need to be accurate about this stuff when evaluating the FO. Margot, Jackson, Gallo? Sure. But they were right about Santana. (I was wrong)
  7. jmlease1
    Twins are currently 11th in most cash value of players lost this season by game ($30M) and tied for 9th in most players lost to injury to date (21), and 14th in games lost to injury (1,303). Cleveland and KC are doing much better on these metrics to date. The Twins depth is definitely being exhausted and and they're struggling because of it. the starting pitching has actually held up pretty well, but losing someone like Ryan is a big blow. Losing so much time from Buxton, Correa, and Lewis (all stars, all producing very well this season when healthy) is a big blow. They've caught dings everywhere except catcher and 1B, and while they've had depth to cover, it's running out and we're stretching people. the bullpen looks gassed, and the need to hold someone like Varland ready to start is limiting the ability to get reinforcements in. They might survive this, but it won't be easy. And this is exactly why the Twins were so cautious about moving on from someone like Margot, because they were frankly worried about running out of guys. personally, I feel like this is where ownership and the front office let the team down in not getting real reinforcements for the bullpen, which turned into the biggest need.
  8. jmlease1
    I would think that Levine would be the tougher one to keep right now, because as much as he might like it here the pull to be the top dog will be strong and he's likely to have suitors in the offseason. realistically the only reason for Falvey to want to leave is if a team with significantly more resources comes a-callin', and even then it might not actually be a better job. While the Pohlads don't spend to the levels fans would want and arguably should expect...from a front office perspective they also don't get down in the weeds and much about with the baseball operation. The current front office regime has overall done a good job. there have been some misses, both on the draft & development side (cavaco & sabato, for example) and on the free agent/trade side (Mahle, Gallo). but there have been some real highs there too (Royce, Wallner, Ober, SWR, Jeffers, Miranda on the draft/dev side and Cruz, Ryan, Pablo, Gray, Correa, Duran on the FA/trade side). And the farm system looks far stronger from top to bottom than when they started, which is impressive considering how many guys have graduated. I have concerns about their ability to manage sunk costs and whether they take too many injury risks, but the former is problem for all but the richest franchises I think and the latter might just be the peril of being a smaller market team and a risk you have to accept. Their creativity in finding lesser known college pitchers that they can develop is really quite impressive. they haven't won big in the playoffs, which is a debit that can't be ignored. YMMV on how much of that is on them vs ownership, or them vs the vagaries of a small sample size playoff. Otherwise the balance sheer is pretty strongly in favor of extensions, because the only other argument you hear is related to data-driven decision-making that some people DGAF about and want a change in manager and style of play (more bunting, steals, hitting for average over power, less platooning, starters throwing 120 pitches, etc) that simply isn't going to happen with this regime.
  9. jmlease1
    Watkins is immensely frustrating as a 3B coach; he's made some real whoppers out there. Feels like a bad fit for him. A little hard to tell clearly in this case whether Watkins is reacting to Kepler or Kepler is reacting to Watkins, maybe? But feels like neither covered themselves in glory. If Kepler's going hard from the jump and aware of the situation, maybe Watkins stays confident in his signals. Then again, it's Tommy Watkins who by all accounts is a really good guy and pretty meh in terms of his stop & go signals. Maybe Rocco was mad at Kepler for not knowing the situation and going hard. Maybe he was mad at Kepler for getting into it with Watkins. Maybe he thought Kepler threw Watkins under the bus a little. Who knows. Been a pretty mediocre year for Kepler with a lot of slumps. He's looked rotten the last 2 weeks (last night against the Braves he looked like he'd never seen a slider before when he came up in the 7th) and his 5-35 stretch over the last 2 weeks has dragged his whole month right now into the trash. Plenty to be unhappy about with Kepler, who isn't not exactly having a strong walk year.
  10. jmlease1
    It's been a bummer to have Rosario miss so much time this season, was really looking forward to seeing how he would handle AA this year. Wonder if they might send him back to the AFL just to get him some ABs or suggest he play winter ball or something? felt like he was holding his own in AA before he got hurt, which seemed fine for his age 21 season. Schobel's had a pretty inconsistent year. He was having a nice bounce in August but then went into an 0-24 slump. He's got some things to figure out. Maybe AFL would be a good call for him too. Jenkins has done pretty well this season despite the time missed to injury. More than holding his own at high A, even if he's not setting the world on fire, but he's doing just fine for 19. It'll be interesting to see how fast they push him for next season because the talent is right on.
  11. jmlease1
    And as soon as Royce or someone else like him starts scowling out there, they're going to get slammed for not being happy when they're getting paid millions of dollars to play a game. (come on, we've all heard that BS before too) People can be driven to improve and work like crazy and so on and still have a smile on their face and be upbeat and positive. You don't have to be a horrible miserable cynic like me to be successful. The idea that Royce Lewis is some kind of glad-hander who dodges criticism because he smiles and works the room is ridiculous.
  12. jmlease1
    Of course, Buxton has a higher career OPS & OPS+, and despite playing 300 fewer games has a higher bWAR as well, as an even better defensive player at a more valuable and difficult position, since Kepler only played about 15% of his games at CF. Part of the reason Kepler's tenure with the Twins may end with a mild disappointment from many fans is in the end his best ability was his availability. Another part of the Kepler Reality is like many players his best years may have been 25-27, when he put up a 3.5, 4.0, and 1.0 (and if you project out that pandemic shortened year it lands around 3) bWAR, and his 30's could end up being a decline.
  13. jmlease1
    Kepler has been a good player for the Twins. For most of his career in MN he's been a quality starter and after 2019 there was belief that he could be a lot more. Instead, it was his peak, the year that combined his best offense with quality defense. he's slipped defensively as he's gotten older and seems streakier as a hitter. This year hasn't been good defensively and the offense pretty average, so he might end up a little below starting quality. I think part of what has always been at issue with Kepler is he looks great even when the results aren't the best. The swing looks sweet, he's smooth in the OF, and he looks like a big strong, fast powerful corner. If you could dream up a LH hitter from central casting, he might look just like Max. But the results have been more modest. Good, not great. better defense than offense at a position that usually needs offense. I think Kepler will get a 1-2 year deal from another team. he'd be a useful LH platoon bat on a team that can afford to throw $8M on a 4th OF who could step in and start for a while. A team might give him a starting opportunity thinking they can get him back to 2023. but I doubt it'll be with the Twins, not with Larnach & Wallner around and Rodriguez waiting in the wings, plus guys like Walker Jenkins coming up around the corner. they might offer him 1 year with a pay cut, but I doubt he'll take it.
  14. jmlease1
    Fair. and there are some other players on the roster with excellent success rates. But it does seem notable that he's already 6th on the team in steals and all of the guys ahead of him have 2-5 times as many games. I think it'd be a good add to his game if he's able to be a consistent threat on the basepaths.
  15. jmlease1
    deBarge has 11 steals in 14 games and has only been caught once. That's fun! New part of his game, or just something he wasn't allowed to show off as much in college? No complaints, I'm always happy to see aggressive baserunning paired with efficiency!
  16. jmlease1
    Nice to have a blowout win. The bats did a great job, especially Larnach, Julien, and Martin. The team wasn't drawing much for walks, but who needs them when you bang out 18 hits? Really happy to see Martin get a couple of doubles too. Wallner's HR was a no-doubter; he knew it as soon as the ball left his bat, lol. I love knuckleball pitchers, but when it doesn't knuckle it's going to get hit. A lot. A little surprised Henriquez didn't get sent out for a 2nd inning to mop it up, but with an off day today I suppose they didn't need to. he's a very frustrating pitcher with his inconsistency: he'll look great against one hitter ands then look garbage against the next. (or vice versa) probably a 4-A pitcher in the end? Bummer to have given away games in this series, but overall a successful road trip. lot of action coming through the end of the season: 3-way race for the division, good race for the wild card spots (I would not say no to Boston falling off the face of the earth though!). If the Twins can get a little healthier I think they're in good position.
  17. jmlease1
    Feels like they're going to let him finish the year in AA, and I think that's fine. The late start and injury set him back a bit, but if he finishes the season strong at AA he'll be nicely positioned to have a spring training invite and start 2025 in AAA. I mean, how much difference will it really make if he gets 2-3 starts in AAA at the end of the season? Sure do like the idea of next year's AAA rotation having Matthews, Morris, Lewis, and possibly Raya along with one from Festa/SWR/Varland. And it makes dealing Paddack and/or moving Varland to the bullpen more viable from the jump. (unless he falls apart in September, I'd be pretty happy starting next season with a rotation of Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Festa, and SWR in MLB with a bunch of legit prospects as call-ups if/when injuries and/or ineffectiveness strike.)
  18. jmlease1
    Julien had good ABs last night. Hopefully it's the start of a trend. He definitely looked like he had a plan and confidence up there. I think the second AB was the one where I thought, "that looks a LOT better from him". Took a pitch for a strike...but it was a really well-placed pitch, low and inside that would have been difficult to do anything with. Later in the AB, he gets a ball out over more the plate and put a good swing on it, had good hard contact...just happened to be too close to the CF. Much less passive, showed good zone recognition, and it was a good swing with hard contact, swinging with intent. We'll see how he goes. It's been a rough season for him at the plate, but he's better than this and I expect his talent to shine through. he's hit at every level (including last season in MLB), so this feels more like a bump that needed correction rather than a collapse or sign that he can't play at this level. He's definitely improved defensively, which is nice.
  19. jmlease1
    Jenkins seems to have settled in nicely at cedar rapids, it'll be interesting to see if his power stroke comes around more as we head to the end of the season. (I'm not worried, but it would be nice for him to rip a couple of dingers at High A before the end of the year) Curious as to where the Twins go with him next season: start back in Cedar Rapids with an early promotion, or just send him to Wichita from the jump? Props to Eeles for giving himself a chance. he's showing more pop in his bat than I think people were expecting and he's doing a fine job controlling the strike zone. but there are still going to be fair questions as to whether or not he can make the jump to MLB. He's done a great job in getting himself to AAA coming out of the Independent leagues, but if he didn't dominate at A-ball at 24, then he's not a prospect of any kind. Handling the jump up to AAA, skipping AA entirely, impresses me more. I think the AAA numbers are very good, but still a small enough sample that I'd pump the brakes on him a bit. but he sure looks worthy of a spring training invite next year (how does his bat hold up against MLB players?) and could be intriguing depth. Schobel has really heated up over the last month, and it's good to see. he'd been scrabbling this year in AA and I was wondering if he'd hit a wall. He needs to finish the season strong, but it's looking much better now. Not worried about Morris getting bit; it's going to happen. Looking forward to seeing how he responds. he's had a fantastic season regardless but let's see how he responds to a little adversity.
  20. jmlease1
    Gardy got some stick from people like me for doing things like batting his 2B 2nd in the lineup, seemingly regardless of who the player was, and refusing to admit that Jacque Jones couldn't hit LHP. But overall, Gardy got picked on a lot less: the blame for the losing seasons was usually dumped on the Pohlads for being cheap, or Joe Mauer for being hurt and/or talking too many walks.
  21. jmlease1
    I guess it's good that people care enough about every game to have a massive overreaction to losing one road game while still taking 3 out of 4 in a series? I like to remind myself on these days that some people despise everything about the way Rocco and Twins leadership manages a game and will jump on him immediately and excessively at every opportunity. Bullpen is getting ground down a bit right now; this happened to us earlier in the season when the Twins were on a good run because they were in every game, but also weren't blowing anyone out. It should be fine, but things are a bit trickier right now because it's hard to let off the gas when you're chasing the division while being chased in the WC. Good to see Lopez battle through on a day when he didn't have his best stuff and the other team was making him work. Too bad we couldn't hold it. Alcala has been really good lately, so seeing him implode like that was a surprise; he's had some bad outing this year but they were typically when we tried to have him go 2 innings rather than 1
  22. jmlease1
    Kirilloff is not in a good place, unfortunately. He's got to hit to be on the roster, and he hasn't been able to hit consistently in MLB and he certainly hasn't been able to stay healthy. I had a lot of hope for him going into the season especially after it looked like the wrist surgery had finally worked and he'd had a solid year (OPS+ of 117). But it's been another lost season for him and there's only so many of those you can have before the team is going to move on. He's still young enough that he could get himself back on track, but it's a lot of injuries to overcome. He had a really sweet swing. Shame he hasn't been able to put it together.
  23. jmlease1
    A really nice win putting them in position to sweep. Pretty great way to start a road trip. Bullpen has been doing great work lately and Henriquez giving 2 good innings made a real difference with the bullpen having some of their top guys unavailable. Like seeing Sands put in such an efficient inning to end the game especially after pitching the day before. Only 2 games back of Cleveland!
  24. jmlease1
    Right now there's plenty of room with the injuries. Before getting called back up Julien had gotten a hit in 12 out of 13 games while hitting 6 doubles, 2HRs and drawing 10 walks. He was looking a lot like the player from last season. But it kinda feels like you've made up your mind on him based on his style of play.
  25. jmlease1
    I think SWR should be #2 on this list right now. Matthews might pass him, but performance counts and SWR has put up an ERA+ of 110 in MLB over 107 IP and that matters. Maybe he doesn't have as much upside...but he's getting the job done and it's not that small of a sample size any longer. But really, this list should be longer and looked at where the next set are on the rankings as well: Morris, Lewis, Raya, Prielipp, Culpepper. Let's look at the full next 10 prospect-type pitchers in the pipeline and see how they're landing for everyone as future rotation options.
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