jmlease1

people keep using guys like Larry Walker, Mike Trout, and Bryce Harper to describe Walker Jenkins. That's really exciting. I hope at the end of the season we're still thinking the same way. It'll be interesting to see how he does now that teams are going to start getting tape on him and him might start facing more advanced pitchers. I suspect he won't be long for low-A. What does he have to work on? Uhh...baserunning, maybe? Only 66% success rate stealing bases. Slacker. We'll know more about whether he has things he really needs work on after this season. Will he have any splits? Can they get him to chase sliders out of the zone? can he stay healthy and impactful in the grind of a full professional season? I mean, right now he's passed every test, and he looks like freakin' Captain America out there. He could have been the #1 overall pick in most drafts. We're trained a bit to have things go sideways with our best prospects...but maybe he's the guy that has the extra bit, the faerie dust that keeps him healthy and rolling and he doesn't get derailed by injuries or suddenly has an exploitable hole in his swing. Maybe he's just one of those guys. I think the Twins will push him exactly as hard as he's ready. He'll get a month or 2 in Ft Myers and then roll up to cedar rapids when it's not so cold. And if Wichita is pushing for the playoffs and Cedar Rapids ain't...maybe he finishes the year in AA. I don't think it's crazy at all for him to end the year in AA if he stays healthy. Could he be a Twin in his age 21 season, like Joe Mauer? I love the Larry Walker comp, and while I know people associate him with injuries...Larry Walker played in 130+ games 10 seasons (and it wasn't his fault he only got 103 in 1994; blame the owners for that!). Give me Larry Walker Jenkins, please!

I think it's interesting in context of the top 100 prospect lists coming out to look at how Raya and Festa are perceived and have been. The way most of those work (except for guys like Gleeman) they value upside and projection over results, age is a significant factor in how they manage projection, and initial valuations and perceptions can be a little sticky. So someone like Festa, coming from a cold-weather school as a low round college pick and not having any one tool to hang his hat on is going to struggle to get noticed even if he puts up video games numbers because he's always going to have something negative chasing him. he had a breakout year in 2022, but he did it in A-ball, so he gets the same bit that was assigned on Cory Lewis (not unfairly): you're a college pitcher in A-ball, so if you can't succeed there you're in trouble, because you're not lighting up guys older and more experienced than you. Festa did fine last season and he's developed the kind of fastball that should play in MLB...but he wasn't destroying AA. Raya has been a guy that fits more of that classic prospect mold. He's young, he's got big upside, he's flattened A-ball at a young age, but the way the Twins managed him is going to keep him off the top lists, and his size hurts him with the guys who do these projections because they're going to make assumptions about his frame/size and without a lot more innings there's little to counter it. But also agree with the statement that there's little difference between being the 4th or 5th prospect on the list...

I wouldn't say no to Martin making the Opening Day roster. I'm still high on him and if he can hit in MLB he's going to be a great 4th OF who can also step on the dirt if needed. This team could really rack up a lot more value on the basepaths if we have healthy legs from Lewis and Buxton, unleash Julien, keep Castro rolling, and add Martin to the mix. (maybe seeing the Twins steal more bases will reduce some of the complaining about strikeouts. nah, probably not.) I think Alcala starts in AAA unless Staumont isn't ready to go and I really don't see the twins carrying 3 LHPs in the bullpen to start the season, but I'm pretty happy with guys like Alcala & Funderburk being the first 2 relievers on the Green Line this year.

The improvement on this team from last season on the position side will come from injured players being healthy this season (Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff) and young players getting more time/continuing to grow (Lewis, Wallner, Julien). From the pitching side, it comes from more consistency and depth in the bullpen and growth/evolution from young starters like Ryan/Ober/Varland and return from injury in Paddack. The plan seems to be to offset any decline in the starting pitching (which was excellent last season) with a stronger bullpen and player development. There's risk in that, but there's risk in basically any roster construction that doesn't include having a payroll over $200M. Overall, it looks like a pretty deep roster. There's good positional flexibility, with guys like Castro & Farmer off the bench having an ability to play 6-7 positions comfortably and professionally. There's a backup at every position on the roster out the gate, with Vazquez being quality defensively at catcher (and hopefully bouncing back a little on offense), Santana a good platoon partner and defensive replacement at 1B, and Farmer being an good platoon partner at 2B. Probably the biggest concern is whether Larnach can be a good backup for Kepler/Wallner in the corners; our depth in AAA is probably the thinnest in the OF for guys who have the strongest upside as hitters. (I'm excited about Rodriguez, Rosario, Jenkins, Gonzalez, etc but the Twins best OF hitting talent is another year away; maybe one of those guys will be ready to make the leap from AA but it's asking a lot). I'm hopeful this team will run a little more this season: Castro showed he could be a weapon that way, but Julien is a quality base-stealer, and Lewis and Buxton could both be difference makers there as well. There's plenty of bullpen options to sort through if guys get overworked and/or are ineffective; I'm still a big fan of Alcala for example and if he starts in AAA after not really pitching in 2023 he could be a real weapon if he's back to full strength and gets that changeup locked in to handle LH batters. Starting pitching depth is a little more worrisome. After Varland there are definitely some question marks regarding readiness/ability to succeed at MLB. Festa is showing great signs, but has never pitched in MLB. SWR is a talent I still like, but he's been erratic. Beyond that it starts to wobble (Headrick? Canterino? Raya?) but it's also fair to say that most teams are going to be in trouble if they need to get 40-50 starts out of their 9-11th choices for the rotation. Twins should be the favorites to win the division, and once you make the playoffs, all bets are off.

Miranda is also the guy who doesn't look like he's fully recovered from surgery yet, so extended Spring Training and then saint Paul probably makes more sense for him anyways.

I do think Royce is one of those guys who would always be willing, even if his preference might be different. Hey, Royce, would you be ok covering SS for Carlos? "You bet!" Yo, Royce: we need a 1B today, can you help the club out? "Just find me the glove!" Royce, we need you to catch a doubleheader today because everyone has the flu, you got this? "Heck yeah, glad you asked me!" I love Royce Lewis. So I could be projecting. But I kinda don't think so. That said, I really think the Twins want him to just play 3B this year and stay healthy. Brooks Lee will get his chance. I think he's too skilled not to. (and injuries will take guys off the field)

I'm fairly happy with this trade, as I was concerned that Gordon didn't really have a spot and was out of options. His best position was left field, and if he's not hitting what he adds defensively there isn't really enough. Now, he did have horrid luck last season even before the injury, but he's also only had one quality season out of 3 in MLB. Okert looks like a solid second lefty in the 'pen, even if he's not exactly been Death to Lefties in his career and has fairly neutral splits. While I don't see him blowing the doors off anyone, he's likely to be a bit better than last season and give us a useful option in the middle innings. And having Funderburk in AAA gives some nice depth in that area if Thielbar gets dinged up. Bullpen is looking much deeper than last season at this time: Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Stewart, Topa, Jackson, Okert, and one from the Staumont/Alcala,/Winder/Weiss/Sands collection should be a solid 8 guys who hopefully all can get used regularly. The one thing i don't want to see is that last man in the bullpen only throwing once a week and functionally wasting a roster spot.

It's not going to happen. No matter how many times it comes up as an idea on TD to send Royce Lewis to the OF, they're not going to do it unless he shows that he can't handle playing infield. They've been very clear about it (and frankly, they're not wrong: not that easy to find guys who can lock in at 3B and play well on both sides of the ball) so why is it that it keeps coming up? they're not moving Royce off 3B to make room for Brooks Lee, no matter how highly they think of him. I expect we'll see Brooks Lee this season, because it's just damn hard to keep everyone off the IL. If there's an injury at 2B, 3B, or SS I expect he'll be the first call up unless something happens at AAA that no one sees coming. No complaints from me; he's literally in his 2nd full season of pro ball. Which is also why I don't worry so much about him having a little bit of a blip at AAA last season: he made AAA in his first full pro season! He's moved aggressively up the ranks, and shown out well everywhere except for 38 games at AAA, in a season where he played 30+ more games in a season than he'd ever done in his life. I'll bet after seeing what it takes to grind through 120+ games in a season he'll be more prepared for it. He looks like the kind of player that's always going to be good, and can have years where he's contending for an all-star. yes, please.

I have no problem with this ranking. Maybe '65 or '69, or '70 were more talented teams, but at the end of the day, '91 won 95 games and a title. The '91 Twins had the best record in the American League, they won their division by 8 games, and it wasn't a bad division: no one finished below .500 in the AL West that year. They beat a really good Toronto team in the playoffs (excellent pitching staff, with a lineup featuring young Olerud & Alomar, and prime Carter & White) that was the class of the AL East, and a very good Atlanta team (maybe not the best in the NL; that Pirates team was crazy good, but they were dang good) to win the series. They didn't sneak in. The '91 Twins also had timing: they had a number of good players have some of their best seasons (or close to it) all together in 1991. Tapani, Harper, Erickson, Mack, Bush, Leius, Willis, Aguilera all had one of their best seasons in MLB at the same time. And that's where championship magic happens. And this team was pretty magical. I think you need to have a little magic in there to be the greatest team in franchise history.

Emma is a heck of a prospect. He still has things to work on, but he's still so young, and the talent leaps off the page. It will be very interesting to see how his contact skills develop in AA, which should be a good challenge for him. Facing more advanced pitchers might actually help him, as there will be fewer guys he can simply wait out and get the walk. But he's been young for his level every step of the way and excelled at every level as well. He finished last season very well, and I think it's fair to say that his early struggles were related to recovery and rust from the surgery. From June on, he was a monster but also pretty dang consistent. I'm impressed with how well he did against LHP last season; it's a small sample to be sure, but he clearly didn't have any trouble there and was actually better against LHP than RHP. It's interesting to look at Rodriguez's 2023 against Julien's in 2021. Lots of patience, lots of Ks...more contact and power from Julien, but you have to also factor in that Julien was 2 years older and did it against Low A and High A whereas Rodriguez did it against high A alone. When you pull Rodriguez's first 2 months out of the equation, when he was still coming back from injury, the K-rates get fairly close. Julien's a great hitter who is doing wonderfully in MLB; look at where Rodriguez is at age 20. That kind of strike zone recognition is pretty remarkable. It'll be interesting to see how much run he gets in CF this season; he's trending towards a corner spot, but he's got the bat to sustain that kind of shift. A great prospect, he's going to be in AA at 21 and has fantastic upside. The fact that he's easily #3 on our prospect rankings is pretty great as well, because he'd be a fine #1 overall prospect otherwise.

Hate to say it, but he's looking like a AAAA player. Too good for AAA but not good enough for MLB. But maybe he can still figure it out, since it's relatively small samples in MLB. Maybe being clear on the move to the bullpen will help him get settled there this season, and hopefully the Twins won't call him up to not use him. If he's got an option left then he still has a chance to make it with the Twins, but I'm not expecting him to be on the Opening Day roster; he's behind a few guys still, even if Balazovic has been DFA's already.

I think this is a little high for GG; I would have him below Raya and probably below Festa as well, for now. that's not really a knock on his talent, more of a recognition of theirs...but I do think the variance in opinions on this prospect is something that gives me some pause. there are good evaluators who think he's pretty overrated and that his struggles at High A were reflective of who he is as a player, and that he matured physically more than most players at his age resulting in his success at low A. There are others who think he has a superior hit tool and that his contact skills at his age project well. MLB.com had him as a Top 100 prospect as did KLaw at the Athletic; I'm guessing FanGraphs will not. It's going to be pretty interesting to see how he does this season. (I will say I'm not expecting him to be hitting with Rosario, whom I think will be playing in AA with E-Rod) Do his EVs improve with a little more experience in high A and some tweaks to his approach? Is he able to improve his plate discipline and lay off pitches outside of the zone? Or will he hack away not be able to be impactful by putting the bat on everything, whether it's a good pitch to hit or not? He's #5.5 for me, though, not 3.5 if we're inserting him into the rankings. The upside is good, the talent is there but there are enough concerns to keep him below Raya & Festa for me.

I really like Raya as a player. I don't mind treating him very carefully so as not to blow out his arm, but if they do see him as a MLB starter I would like to see him stretched out a little more this season. Let's see what happens when he goes 75 pitches or heads into the 5th inning. They can space out his starts a little more if they want to go carefully on him, but at a certain point he's not a starting pitcher prospect if he never throws more than about 3 innings in an outing. #4 seems a reasonable spot for him, I wouldn't run any higher.

Duran's case is a little bit different; he didn't exactly flunk out as a starter (4 starts in AAA in an injury-filled season isn't enough for me) and he basically never got his AA development season in 2020 as a starter at all because of the pandemic. So the team just made the call that his lightning bolt of an arm played up immediately as a reliever and might also keep him healthy. We'll never really know if he could have still made it as a starter. I think missing out on a key developmental year in 2020 hurt Balazovic considerably. (as I recall, he scrapped the changeup in 2021 and started working on a split in AA; starting that process sooner would almost certainly have helped) The injury year in 2022 set him back significantly as well. And this is where drafting teenage pitchers starts getting to be a problem: he's now spent 7 seasons in our system, has to be on the 40-man or possibly get snapped up by someone else, but he's still not ready. You end up having to make the decision on those young pitchers faster than maybe you want to, but in this case you had a lost development year on top of it. The missing 2020 minor league season messed up some careers, and I think Balazovic's was one of them.

If you're going to be relying on younger players and guys coming up through your system, it makes sense that when you're picking your vets to come in and fill roles that you would look for guys that are going to have additional character traits and intangibles to bring to the table. While some young players are ready to be leaders out the gate, most aren't. And even ones with huge talent and the right makeup to excel can benefit be having mentors to show them all sorts of little tricks and habits that might otherwise take years to develop. Sometimes a couple of a$$holes can crash a team, especially over the long grind of a season. You shouldn't pass on a superior talent for a lesser one just because the lesser talent is a good guy and the much better player has a reputation for being difficult, but limiting the number of jackwagons on a squad is often a good call. Good team guys can come in on a one-year deal or after a trade and be fine. The prickly/disgruntled/cranky guys can't always do that. Selfishness can rub off on people.

It's too bad that Balazovic crapped out here, but last year was really his key year and between the bar fight (even if he wasn't at fault), lack of control, injuries, and lack of performance made it another poor season. He really does illustrate the risk of high school pitchers; even when they look like they're breaking out in the low minors it can easily fall apart in the high minors, which is exactly what happened to Balazovic. I wasn't confident in him making the roster after they signed Staumont, frankly, and it's only gotten worse for him since with Topa and Jackson coming in. I do think the bullpen looks pretty good and they've wisely not dropped real money on middle relievers.

I think the biggest difference is in the number of pitches Festa has that are established already as it relates to Balazovic, who ended up having to scrap his changeup for a different one at AA, Sands hasn't had Festa's velocity and figuring out a 3rd pitch has been a bit of a struggle for him as well. Winder has velocity on his fastball, but it's been incredibly hittable and it looks like Festa's doesn't have the same issues. Winder also never had a 3rd pitch settled on either: the slider is great, but his changeup is just ok and he's been trying to land a 3rd pitch for a while. Look it can all change when you hit MLB and even the crap hitters there are only crap against the best in the world. but Festa looks very promising, and looks on track to be a rotation option in 2025 after getting a taste this season. Hopefully we only need him for 10 starts or so, but as AAA depth he's awfully nice to be looking at as your 7th/8th/9th starter going into the year.

I think that's fair. I think Martin has more upside and utility than Gordon, who was bad last season before the very unfortunate injury, is just ok as a CF, doesn't really have the arm to be the corners, and isn't an infield option anywhere but 2B. Martin's RH bat is also a better fit than another LH bat for the OF, and despite Gordon being reasonable fast, Martin is the better baserunner. But after the way 2022 imploded due to insufficient depth and acceptable players to put into MLB roles, the FO is putting a premium on depth and has become significantly more risk-adverse on this issue. I'm not sure they're wrong? But I suspect that's why Gordon will hang on to his spot on the roster rather than get surpassed by Martin unless Gordon gets hurt again or implodes. I was happy to see Martin ranked this high, but pretty surprised. I thought I was one of the last believers, but his AFL time plus how well he responded to his injury recovery at AAA seems to have changed some minds. I really think he can be a quality CF even if he's not showing a lot of power, because he will get on base, and he will advance on the base paths. (much like Wallner, he's not afraid to Don Baylor his way on base) He looks like a really good fit as a 4th OF who can also step on to the dirt in a pinch so long as he stays off of SS. (might not have the arm for 3B either, but he wouldn't embarrass himself). The real question is whether or not he can drive enough balls into the gap to have a respectable slugging %. he doesn't need to be ripping 15-20 HRs, but he needs to not be empty BA. He'll take his walks and HBPs, but if he gets enough doubles to keep that SLG north of .400 he'll be pretty valuable.

Castro could play SS, but I'd rather have Farmer there. And I agree: Farmer is an almost perfect backup on this team: he pairs well with Julien, is average to above average defensively at multiple infield spots, and can even run out to the OF in a pinch. Plus he's very well respected as a veteran leader and seen as a future coach/manager if he wants it.

Well, he had a blowout this year with Twins fans when he listed out their potential starters and had Balazovic in the mix and not Paddack; when people pointed out that Paddack was a starting pitching option (and not in a mean way, either) he proceeded to insult anyone who considers Chris Paddack a starter in spectacularly douchey fashion. (as if Balazovic is?) not the first time he's done that kind of BS, either. When I mean that he won't admit to being wrong, it partly means "Only KLaw is allowed to criticize KLaw".

He can be a cantankerous jerk, but his evaluations are usually pretty fair and he's upfront about his biases (preferring ceiling, etc). he's also not afraid to swerve from the CW on players, which I respect. He's also pretty much never willing to admit he screwed up, and will double-down and insult people if called on it. So kind of an ass, but a good prospect evaluator.

Lewis is a really interesting case and a bit of the showcase for development kind of player if he can continue to get it done. now, as a college player from a reasonably-sized school with a serious baseball program, I would hope that he would do well out the gate in low A, and the expectations for him in high A would be a little higher than a 20-year old kid as well. That said...he's met those expectations. He had more starts and more innings in his first year as a pro and handled it well. He showed respectable control, solid numbers of Ks, and did a very nice job of keeping the ball in the park, while not being terribly easy to hit. he jumped all the way up to high A in his first season of pro ball and had ERAs that are hard to ignore. I think AA will be a very good test for him. Can he keep throwing so many different pitches against more refined hitters? Will his stuff hold up, or does he need more velocity (or bite on the offspeed) to succeed? I'm excited to find out. If he can legitimately throw 6 different pitches...the guessing games involved might help his pitches all play up a bit more. how do you sit on a pitch when the guy can throw enough of them that you might never see that one in 2 ABs or more? Plus, I love a knuckleball, at any velocity, so I'm rooting hard for this kid.

The "Duran to the rotation" bit is entirely driven by fans, not anything from team or player sources, though. There's really been no indicator at all that they have any interest or intention towards this kind of move. It might be fun to speculate about, but it's sort of like the "just move Royce Lewis to the OF" ideas that pop up during roster construction conversations. not just unlikely, so improbable as to border on impossible.

I think he's an interesting prospect and a good risk to take at that spot in the draft. It'll be interesting to see if he starts the season in Low-A at Ft. Myers or if he gets some repeat time in the complex league/rookie ball; it would be a sign of the Twins confidence in his progress if he begins in full-season pro ball already. His contact rates will probably define him as he advances, especially with his size.

not far at all. All three of them had better come into camp locked in and ready to go, because their careers are teetering. none of them did enough last season to feel comfortable at all. Even before this signing I had Winder, Sands, and Balazovic all missing the cut and either getting traded or DFA'd. I'd suggest this puts Alcala, Funderburk, and Staumont on the bubble too. I'm interested by Jackson; if he can hit the zone he does well. He's not easy to hit even if he doesn't always put up video game Ks. Twins have a lot of options for the bullpen out the gate this season; hopefully they pick the right ones, though I'm sure some of this will get decided by health.