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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Hard to complain about sweeping a doubleheader (although clearly there are plenty around here who are; why so mad when we win?). Thought it was a balk, but some of the replays didn't show it well. A little silly for the manager to lose his mind on that call, kinda felt like a guy in the middle of a losing streak just trying to spark his team as much as anything. You're not going to change the umpire's mind on that one. It was a nice insurance run, but hardly game-altering, either. Wallner is absolutely crushing it right now, and it's great to see. Twins have needed some thump from the left side and Wallner is absolutely bringing it. When he's locked in he's very very dangerous. Sands and Thielbar did a great job getting the game to the 9th. Feels a little strange to see Thielbar go 2 innings, but he was so efficient it wasn't a problem and they needed someone to pick up an extra inning with the doubleheader. Excellent work by the bullpen to close down the game, Richards did well too. Only 47 pitches to get through 4 1/3, that's impressive.
  2. jmlease1
    Ober is having an excellent year, and seems to have really figured it out. (He has to have tipped his pitches against KC right?) I like using Game Score as a way to evaluate a starter, and Ober has 12 of his 22 with a Game Score of 60 or better, only 4 with a Game Score under 40. He's really giving the Twins a great chance to win when he takes the hill. Excellent way to start a doubleheader and a series!
  3. jmlease1
    It's going to be a challenge. The incentive for Lewis to sign a long-term deal is to lock in guaranteed money against the risk of injury, insuring that he gets generational wealth even if he has another catastrophic injury. A lot of players would do that deal, especially knowing that even if they bet wrong and stay healthy and productive the whole time, there's almost certainly another big deal available. But Royce Lewis has as much confidence and faith in himself as any player I've ever seen. Might be harder for him to not bet on himself, you know? That said, he's also the sort of player that isn't going to want to bounce around to different clubs and feel like a mercenary. I think he'd rather be a Twins legend. Still doesn't mean he's going to take significant discounts, though.
  4. jmlease1
    It's going to be Lee or Martin when Farmer is done with his rehab assignment (unless someone else gets dinged and is sent to IL). This front office is exceptionally reticent to lose control of a player they think could be an asset or even move on from sunk costs. They got burned hard by not having enough depth a few years ago and seem to have said to themselves that they'll never end up like that again. It's made them a little more risk-adverse than I think they should be, but at the same time the injuries do keep flowing. Moving on from sunk costs is something most franchises struggle with, i think, but teams with smaller payrolls tend to have it worse. we're always chasing getting value out of a guy, in part because there might not be any money in the self-imposed team budget to get a replacement if the contingency plan doesn't work. I also would argue the generally risk-adverse nature of this front office comes into play here too, preferring to bank on a veteran finding their form over a younger player figuring it out for the first time.
  5. jmlease1
    Fun night for the pitching pipeline. Good to see Matthews have a strong outing. I'll be very happy if he finishes the season in AAA strong and has people thinking about him for the rotation next season, even if I think it's most likely that he starts the season in AAA. Lewis is looking healthy, which is the most important thing, but having positive results that make him look like the guy we got hyped about last season is excellent. Looking forward to him finishing strong as well. Tanner Hall is interesting, and doing ok in his first professional season. The last 2 starts have been quite good, and if he can show that kind of consistency, he'll move up quickly. I love a pitcher with an elite changeup, and if he's figuring out his command/control issues from earlier in the season, he's got some possibilities. Especially if the twins are able to add a little more velocity to his fastball along the way... I feel like SWR has done enough to have the inside track for a rotation job next season (with the assumption that Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack are the presumptives on the other 4 slots), which could potentially give us a rotation in AAA featuring Festa, Varland, Matthews, Lewis. And make it unnecessary to throw money at a journeyman veteran 5th starter type and have options in AAA that have real futures as the call-ups against injury. I've been feeling better about our starting options in AAA every year lately, which is relatively new and fun. Kinda cool to go from hoping 1-2 guys might be able to do something to feeling good about 1-2 guys, to feeling good about 3 or more...
  6. jmlease1
    haven't had the opportunity, but isn't this the pure scouting fallacy? You've watched him several times, but at this point he's started 9 games and made 15 total appearances for 46 2/3 innings. If 2 of the starts you saw were 6/20 & 6/26, your impression isn't going to be very good I suspect. If you watched his last 2 starts, I suspect you'd be more impressed. It's why the overall stats have to be included. When I think of a guy who doesn't miss enough bats, those guys can't hunt Ks. It sounds like his issue is more about commanding his pitches (the walk rate and HBP numbers are good indicators there) so that when he throws the change or slider with good break guys are more likely to chase it, while keeping a few more runners off the basepaths. Looking at his pitch counts, you can see he's had those type of games where he's racking up 70 pitches in 3 innings, which again goes to his command & control questions. He seems like an interesting prospect who is doing ok in A-ball in his first professional season.
  7. jmlease1
    Terrific start by Morris who is having a very good season. It's great to see him get deep into a game like that too. A 0.1 HR/9 rate is unsustainable for anyone, but he's always been good at keeping the ball in the yard, which may serve him well as he rises in the minors. He's only got 10 starts at AA, so let's maybe pump the brakes a little before bumping him up to MLB, but I could see him getting a late call-up to AAA this season. He almost certainly starts there next year, I'd think. AAA rotation next season should be pretty strong and provide that starting pitching depth effectively with Morris, Matthews, and either SWR or Festa likely starting the season there, not to mention Cory Lewis still coming along and Marco Raya. There's been a lot of jokes about the twins "pitching pipeline"...but it's starting to show out, I'd say.
  8. jmlease1
    11.8 K/9 suggests that he is missing some bats out there.
  9. jmlease1
    as Hawk noted on the broadcast, it's probably the first time that's ever happened to Larnach...and will never happen again. It wasn't good, but I'm also pretty sure he was extremely embarrassed and mad at himself over it. If he makes that kind of a baserunning botch again, then we can get mad at him. This one you can laugh it off. ("Nice baserunning, Trev: don't ever effing do it again.")
  10. jmlease1
    It's just so hard to know with relievers in the minors whether they can keep translating as they move up the ladder. Grace is doing terrific this season in results, but the underlying peripherals are a little concerning: k/9 is way down this season and he still walks guys. The WHIP is excellent, but it wouldn't take much to change that. He's 24 as a reliever in AA. I thought Cody Laweryson was going to be a real relief prospect for the Twins in 2022 and a few of us around here got pretty hyped about him. He struggled in Saint Paul in 2023 and got demoted back to AA this year and suddenly looks like he's going nowhere. If Regi Grace finishes the season strong and stays healthy, he will likely get a chance in AAA next season, but who knows if he's got the chops to make it to MLB. It's a tough road for minor league relievers i think.
  11. jmlease1
    It's great to see Buck playing in CF and hitting so well. He's a key player for the Twins and one of the guys who has an elite ceiling, and you need those guys to contend. He's clearly he trying to pick his moments for when to unleash his top-end speed and do it when it counts to keep himself on the field through the long grind. Fine by me, especially because he's shown that he can do it, throw it into 3rd gear rounding 1B to leg out a double. The knee surgery in the off-season clearly has worked and cleaned up the problem that kept giving him pain last season, and they've managed his workload pretty well. It would be really exciting if he can get through this season like this, and then NOT need any kind of surgery in the offseason. Sometimes that's the cascading effect for a player who had a lot of injuries earlier in their career for staying healthy later: getting that healthy season with no off-season surgery so they can keep building on what they have and not have to start over again. Here's hoping. The defense may not be back to the elite levels it was, but it's still plenty good out there and he's having an excellent season overall after a slower start.
  12. jmlease1
    I'm glad we weren't the ones to break the ChiSox streak, especially since we're the last team they beat. They can get well against someone else. (or not, since some of their vets seems to have quit on the club in august) Sweeping teams isn't easy in baseball. even historically bad teams win 1 out of 3 and even rotten teams can have everything come together for a day. While we should expect the Twins to beat the ChiSox, getting a sweep is a good work. eventually this streak will end, but no one wants to be the team they finally get a W against.
  13. jmlease1
    I love winning. I especially love beating the ChiSox, no matter how crap they are this season. And, yeah, I remember how a couple of seasons ago how all the prognosticators had them as the team on the rise who were going to control the division for years to come. Turns out, 2021 was an utter fluke. They've had an awful front office, been a mess with their managers, and their owner is pretty dreadful. What a shame, lol. Nice to see the bottom half of the lineup carry the club. Got to feel good about the team's approach at the plate drawing 7 walks; as much as I look at WHIP for pitchers, I keep an eye on where the team's combined walks & hits landed for a game. Generating 15 baserunners like this should get you the runs you need. Go for the sweep!
  14. jmlease1
    I liked almost everything about this game. I was annoyed at Ryan giving up the dinger, because it felt like Ryan let them off the hook with that one, but maybe I'm being too hard on him. The other thing was I really don't like the "city connect" uniforms. blegh. Love everything about healthy Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, though!
  15. jmlease1
    well, sort of. if every HR was a solo shot. those 2 and 3-run HRs certainly increase your run-scoring efficiency. even the solo shot does it efficiently. but the harder guys hit the ball the more likely it's going to go for a hit. Wallner is doing great. even with some regression he's still going to be a very valuable player and hitter. Yes, he's going to K a lot and it's going be frustrating at times. But he's also going to punish pitchers who try to groove one to get a strike and ways that other hitters can't.
  16. jmlease1
    Because he's 27, didn't hit in the minors all that much until last season, and isn't on the 40-man. He's got talent and might be a good fit as a 4th OF because of his skill defensively, but we've had enough OF this season that are on the 40-man that there hasn't been room to add him. If Buxton goes down with a serious injury (god forbid!), I think you might see him get his chance, and there might be a window for him next season as guys like Kepler and Margot likely move on. But he's a late bloomer dealing with a roster squeeze.
  17. jmlease1
    "I can't believe Twins fans would consider Pablo Lopez an ace after a season when he was a deserving all-star and finished 7th in Cy Young voting!" Look, "ace" is a seriously undefined label that has a wide-range for people. Some people consider a #1 starter an ace, others only consider one of the top ten pitchers in the league to be an ace. Some people just look at dominance. Some people look at a guy that would be a top pitcher on most teams in the league who could pitch Game 1 of a playoff series and you'd be happy about that while the team you're facing would not to be an ace. Pablo meets a lot of these categories, even if he's struggled more at times this season than last year. (and looking at his FIP, he's probably been a little unlucky this year too) But it's hardly crazy for Twins fans to look at Pablo Lopez and think of him as the team's ace.
  18. jmlease1
    dammit, I thought the full list was up there in print. I got too excited when I saw Priellipp on the list...
  19. jmlease1
    Best part of this week was seeing the top 20 prospect list and realizing that they all played. Huzzah for health!
  20. jmlease1
    I'd agree if he had been playing consistently in the field. Only been in CF 4 times in July, which suggests they're watching him carefully after the injury to make sure he's fully healthy. I'm ok with them doing that in Ft. Myers where they have a more extensive organization and medical setup. (we've had so many top prospects deal with significant injuries that I'm happy to be cautious there) From a hitting perspective, though I agree: he's ready for promotion. Happy to see Culpepper back; looks like he had no problems easing his way back in, so I'll be looking forward to seeing how a regular start goes. If he and Cory Lewis can stay healthy and finish the season strong it'll be a good sign for the Twins pitching pipeline.
  21. jmlease1
    Elite work by Ober. Love seeing that from him, and I don't care what kind of lineup Detroit was running out there. Dominating that much is impressive as hell. I really hope Miranda is ok; seems like the cheek guard absorbed a lot of it? But it may be an issue that MLB has to look at with the Player's Association in the offseason, because with so many guys throwing so hard now, hitters are in the firing line. Concussions are awful and ruin careers, but beaning a guy even with no intent at all can wreck a player's career too. Gotta protect them all, from themselves if they have to.
  22. jmlease1
    From a reputation standpoint at least, Margot is seen as a better fielder than say, Wallner (or Larnach) especially in terms of catching the ball (clearly Wallner has the stronger arm). I'm guessing it's partially a defensive replacement situation where they feel like they can ensure more outs this way and keep the other team from getting back into the game. I'm not sure it's all that impactful, but YMMV.
  23. jmlease1
    Thought Brooks Lee looked pretty solid at SS, that was nice to see. Nice outing for the Twins offense. Good job jumping on the Tigers early and often and never letting them up off the mat. Wallner certainly seems to be back to the guy he was last season. Hope he's worked out all the kinks!
  24. jmlease1
    What a disaster this has been. The scum who run Sinclair and generated this scheme to create Diamond/Bally in the first place need to be run out of town on a rail. I'm sure they've been able to feather their nests quite comfortably and will be untouched in the bankruptcy, of course. Terrible results for Twins fans for most of the season, huge drain on the fans. Way too many people haven't been able to watch a fun and very likable team this year. Hope that is finally over, but I never underestimate the power of greed to screw things up again.
  25. jmlease1
    Miranda is a more than reasonable choice to backup Santana this season (while backing up 3B and DHing) and should be back this weekend. He looks like a fine choice to start next season and has pretty neutral splits. Severino could get his chance if Kirilloff falls out of the picture (that will be a shame, but if you can't stay healthy and aren't producing it doesn't matter how pretty your swing is, and the hidden back injury isn't going to play in his favor), and regardless of Julien's improvement at 2B he's a better fit at 1B than Brooks Lee, who will need a spot next season, either at 2B or 3B. I'm not super worried about it; I suspect Wallner or Larnach could learn the position as well.
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