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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Hopefully Ryan also learned the lesson about trying to hide an injury: don't effing do it! That was his biggest mistake last season. The splitter looks like it could be a really effective 3rd pitch for Ryan, one that can keep him out of trouble and change hitters eyelines nicely. It also might help him to have his 3 pitches locked in, so that he can work on refinement rather than trying to work on an entirely new pitch, or bouncing back and forth between offerings to see what might stick. I think Ryan is going to chew up a lot of good innings for the Twins in 2024. I think he's a playoff caliber starter, and would argue his use as an opener of sorts in the playoffs in 2023 had more to do with the position team was in than faith in him. (they were in an elimination game, so it made sense to throw everything at it, plus if they win they have a day off following, and then have their ace lined up to take the ball for game 5. I suspect that if the Twins had been up 2-1 rather than down 2-1 Ryan would have gotten a more typical start)
  2. jmlease1
    I'm a little nervous about the number of times "doesn't generate a lot of swing and miss" for Morris, but we'll see how his off-speed stuff continues to develop. I think it's very hard to sustain success as you rise through the minors and be a MLB option if you don't have an off-speed pitch that generates the whiffs. That weak contact usually becomes harder contact and the Ks you might have gotten from guys looking at it as it slides on by get spotted by better hitters. But there's still interesting potential here. Matthews fastball impresses, and if he can find the consistent secondary offerings he could take another fast leap. I do think that the change of speed on a change up that otherwise doesn't move much can still work, especially from a fastball-heavy pitcher, but getting better movement will certainly help it play up. It's a very fun group of pitchers to track to see how they're developing. I do think we'll find out a lot more about them when they get to AA and are competing against more experienced and sophisticated hitters. College pitchers should have an advantage over most A-ball hitters.
  3. jmlease1
    If Max Kepler is still on this roster Opening Day, please please keep using your "A" swing, Max. Hit the ball in the air, take your walks, have a good season. It'll turn better results for him than trying to push him into hitting the ball the other way. I don't know if the shift ban really had all that much impact, but even if had a little to improve offense, fine. It probably made the game a bit more aesthetically pleasing and kept the pace up (one less thing to do between hitters as guys shuffled around). I won't miss the people arguing that your team's best hitter should bunt their way on base because of the shift either.
  4. jmlease1
    I mean, I think these guys need to make it work this season for their own careers as much as the Twins do. Alcala is in the best shape: he's shown some success before and his biggest issue is injury, which means someone will take another chance on him even if this season busts for the Twins. Arguably, Balazovic in the next best positioned in that he has all that theoretical "upside" attached to a player who was a highly rated prospect once upon a time, and doesn't have a lot of innings in MLB to drag him down. Sands has had some success and hasn't been awful. Winder is in the diciest spot, as his fastball has been incredibly hittable and it seems unlikely that he can survive even in the bullpen just chucking curveballs. I'm thinking there's 2 spots in the bullpen right now and these guys are fighting for them. Right now, I'd bet on Alcala and Sands, but Balazovic could surprise. Unless Winder unlocks something at Driveline with a new pitch...I think he's about done as anything other than a mop-up dude. I still like Alcala; the slider is a weapon and if the changeup is working he's got something to slow down lefties (which might help his fastball from getting pummeled). we'll see how the rest do. the 8th spot won't get much work and is fairly wasteful unless the starters are back to "5 and Fly"; the last 2 spots are more about being the first calls up to higher leverage spots if someone gets dinged out of the Duran/Jax/Stewart group.
  5. jmlease1
    It's also fair, considering the decision from Twins management to follow up a promising season by cutting payroll. While I don't expect that franchise to be top 5 or even top 10 in terms of payroll, they had quite a few years where their payroll was below average and they reaped substantial profits. With the playoff run, it's likely they at least broke even in 2023 (and I wouldn't bet against them making money; Twins are good at making sure they stay profitable). If ownership/senior management is getting a little uncomfortable seeing "self-imposed payroll limits" being interjected into every Twins discussion...good.
  6. jmlease1
    I'm a fan of Martin, who has a lot of skills, and seems very well suited to being a 4th OF on a team where he might be needed to play a lot and could step into several roles effectively. I think he'd be above average in CF defensively and plus in either corner with his range. While I think his best position right now is on the grass, I'd have no qualms about slotting him in at 2B or even having him patching things together on the left side of the infield in a pinch. not sure where his offensive upside lands: I think he'll get on base and hit for a good average, but he'll hit the limiter if he can't find a little more pop in his bat. That said, his willingness to take walks, swipe bases, and get on base however he can (dude isn't afraid to lean into a pitch; 53 HBP in 3 minor league seasons matters) suggests he'll be an asset. I wouldn't be upset if he got the first crack at being the Twins 4th OF in 2024. but I wish he would have finished the season a little stronger at AAA, since he had a real power outage in Sept. That said, he kept getting on base!
  7. jmlease1
    Reinsdorf wants a new stadium again? I guess he did it wrong in 1990. But it's going to get very ugly for baseball if suddenly there's a run on "we need a new stadium!" from ownership on facilities that are only 20-30 years old. Atlanta & Texas not managing to get 20 years out of their previous stadiums is pretty egregious and this just sounds like Jerry, who is obscenely rich and staggeringly clueless about his own fanbases just wants more. Entitled scumbag. Interesting note: Target Field is currently the 4th newest stadium in MLB.
  8. jmlease1
    It still could make a real difference for the Twins in not having their rights completely cratered though, because if the streaming rights are worth $20M per season even if the broadcast rights are only worth $25M we're no longer looking at a need to drop payroll by $20M+ and wouldn't feel pushed to move Polanco, Kepler, or Vazquez.
  9. jmlease1
    I generally feel like almost no prospect should be considered untouchable; there's a gazillion things that can go wrong even with guys that have the highest upside, most projectable skills, and demonstrated minor league production. But your absolute best prospects need to be guarded carefully and only moved for players that increase your ceiling as a team and will get you guaranteed multiple years. No rentals, and I'm not interested in dealing the best guys to raise the floor of a team, even if there is a gaping hole on the roster. Emmanuel Rodriguez is more challenging to project than some top prospects. He can play CF, but he's not likely to stick there and his tools don't project him to be a great OF anywhere (that said, he should be at least above average in the corners and certainly isn't bad out there at all). His patience is pretty spectacular and having a great eye at the plate is a skill that can translate all the way up the ladder. His contact rates are a little concerning, but the ball explodes off his bat. I think it's probably easier to teach a player to be a little more aggressive at the plate than to go the other way, but does Rodriguez need real work on his contact skills? What kind of holes does he have in his swing and can those be toned down? He's a real test for talent evaluation and player development, because the ceiling is incredibly high, but the floor isn't all that high. If you don't think he can make enough contact as he rises in the org, is going to get taken advantage of for not jumping on his pitch earlier in counts as pitchers get more sophisticated and skilled, and that he definitely cannot play MLB-quality CF...then dealing him for a big haul is a smart play. But if you get your evaluation wrong, it really will come back to haunt you. David Ortiz has haunted the org for a long time, but a lot of teams missed on him before Boston took a flier. Getting it wrong on Rodriguez would be a bigger indictment of the organization. Tough one. Really, really tough. As long as his ceiling is this high, I would have trouble trading him.
  10. jmlease1
    A lot of it depends on how much the Twins try to stack their lineups against pitching matchups, but if I were going to go pitcher-independent, it would probably look something like this (assuming it's the roster we have right now): Julien Polanco Correa Kirilloff Buxton Wallner Lewis Kepler Jeffers Dang, that's potentially a really brutal lineup to have to face. Seems harsh to slot Lewis in at 7, but Correa is the best fit to hit 3rd and if we keep our lefties split up then it's either 5th, 7th, or 9th. Do I have too much faith in Kirilloff as a hitter? Maybe, but I like his upside a lot. If he's healthy, he hits. Feel free to bump Wallner or Kepler up higher if you don't believe in Kirilloff. If Martin makes the roster, he could fit in nicely up top against lefties. His skill set is quite good for leadoff, IMHO.
  11. jmlease1
    Such a shame about Liriano; I saw one of his dominating starts that season and was absolutely blown away. (I think it was the July start against MKE, but not 100% sure.) He was just filthy. Such a shame the elbow couldn't hold up, it would have been amazing to see what he and prime Johan could have done together in the playoffs. I was also at Game 2 of that playoff series and the Dome was absolutely rocking. When Cuddyer and Morneau went back-to-back to tie it up it was absolutely deafening in there, painfully loud. Torii Hunter took all the air out of the place when he decided to play hero ball rather than hold Kotsay to a single; it was a staggeringly bad play. This was a pretty dang terrific team. They were one hitter short and Terry Ryan's dumpster diving for a veteran bats just didn't work out at all: we got nothing from Nevin, Batista, White, Sierra. Take away injuries to Liriano and Kubel (who hadn't recovered from his catastrophic knee injury yet...and even then he was never really the same) and what might have happened? This is definitely a What If? team.
  12. jmlease1
    scholarship from being drafted so high. team that drafted him that high has to prove they weren't wrong, then someone else takes a chance on him because there had to be a reason he was drafted to high, right? then if they have any success at all, someone who try again, convincing themselves that there must be some value to unlock from such a high pick. people have trouble moving on...
  13. jmlease1
    I'm hoping Julien gets unleashed at the top of the order. He seems like a perfect lead-off man: gets on base a ton, is dangerous enough to punish a pitcher who tries to groove one as a "get by" pitch, and has good speed and quality base-running skills. He's been successful swiping bases in the minors and should get more of a green light this season, IMHO. If he doesn't get 10+ steals, then something is amiss. Castro will run free again, for sure. Lewis and Buxton both have the ability for it and the speed, it's just the injury concerns. I feel like neither will run much in the first couple of weeks, but if their knees are feeling good once the season has started they might get a few more opportunities. If Gordon sticks, it would be interesting to see if he can do more swiping bases with the changed rules; he hasn't been that great at it (but not bad either) and if he could do a little more while being more efficient it would certainly help his status as a role player. Martin certainly should be seen as a threat if he makes the club. It would be nice for the Twins to be a bigger threat on the bases, and this year they are better equipped for it than in the past. 2021 & 2022 teams didn't steal much, but who on those teams were you really excited to see try more? I mean, Kepler is a good baserunner, generally...but I don't exactly want to green light him.
  14. jmlease1
    What "blah attitude"? He's been perfectly fine, seems like a good due, and dealt with Farmer ragging him all season without losing it and instead just improved in the field. This reminds me of the days when people thought Torii Hunter was better than Joe Mauer because Hunter was "fiery". I say no to trading either of them; there's no roster issue that says we really need to move one of them right now. I think Polanco is going to get moved, which means there's even less of a roster issue. Julien destroys righties, gets on base a ton and this season I expect him to get unleashed more on the bases. (we'll see if he does better against lefties/gets more run against them) Lee is going to fight his way on to the team sooner rather than later, and that's also just fine. There's plenty of PT at 1B, 2B, 3B and DH for this team to fit Lewis, Julien, Lee, and Kirilloff in (along with maybe Miranda) for the next few seasons while they're all still pretty cheap. Make the decisions when their arbitration numbers start to jump and the team control is running lower. Not to say they are untouchable; if you get a deal for starting pitching for multiple years it might be worth it. But don't dangle them for anything less than star returns and certainly not for any rentals.
  15. jmlease1
    2023 Matt Wallner had an OPS+ of 139. (2021 Miranda was still in the minors, but had a massive season.) Brooks Lee coming up and dropping an OPS+ of 140 or better would be rookie of the year stuff. I think people forget just how good Wallner was at the plate in 2023.
  16. jmlease1
    I think we can pump the brakes on anyone needing to leave the infield: Royce is locked in at 3B as long as he stays healthy, same with Correa. Lee can slide in at 2B and Julien can shift to either DH or 1B, or Lee can spend his first season or so as a super-utility guy who takes all the innings we've been giving to someone like Farmer and play some SS, 3B, and 2B as well as DHing occasionally to get his bat in the game. There's not really that much of a numbers problem going forward, because there seems to be little chance Polanco will be here in 2025 (if not 2024) and a similar issue is cooking with Farmer. And once Julien, Lewis, and Lee are all in MLB it's not like we have a bunch of can't miss prospects hot on their heels (our best ones at that point are OFs like Rodriguez, Rosario, and Jenkins). But even if someone does make a big leap...that's the problem I want to have. Injuries will happen, so Brooks Lee is likely to get some time. Kinda hope everyone is playing well enough and is healthy enough that we don't need him until June/July.
  17. jmlease1
    I think the odds are good we'll see all of these guys in MLB at some point except for Rodriguez and Lewis. Injuries will happen, and even a couple of relatively minors ones at the same time can have you digging in to the minors pretty quickly. I tend to agree there's a good chance Martin will get an early chance in CF, and he's a fine choice defensively for the OF (with ability to step on the dirt in a pinch). I think his on-base skills will translate quickly even if we don't really know what kind of hitter he's going to be out the gate. but I do think the Twins might be comfortable with Castro and Gordon as options in CF behind Buxton, especially if Buxton starts the season with the team confident that he can actually play field from the jump. Rodriguez and Lewis are both very interesting prospects with very different paths, but i don't see the Twins jumping E-Rod to MLB this season unless they have a major need in the corners that they can't fill another way and he's showing better contact skills and less passivity at the plate while still hammering the ball and taking walks. Lewis is interesting, and as a college pitcher he's probably a little more mature (mentally and physically), but he's still behind Festa, Woods Richardson, and Brent Headrick as call-up options to start a game, and I think there's a real likelihood the Twins will add a starter to the MLB rotation and push Varland down as well, so the team would have to start reaching deep like the bad injury/ineffectiveness years to need Lewis in 2024. And I think we're stronger than that now.
  18. jmlease1
    bWAR also counts defense, they just seem to frame it differently.
  19. jmlease1
    double-post
  20. jmlease1
    Here's the thing: this only applies if Correa is the 2023 version. Noah Miller would have to be Andrelton Simmons-level of defense to match Correa's 2023 production which is a giant bar to pass for a player who has never played an inning above A-ball. (and BTW, Simmons was a bad hitter, and his worst season as a hitter in the minors was better than Miller's best at this point.) If 2022 Correa is on tap, then this is money well-spent. But the other part of it is value for money is greater with star-quality players. While $ value per WAR is a useful enough thumbnail, the actual value of 1 WAR is greater from 4 to 5 than it is from 1-2, because there are a lot fewer players capable of producing 5 WAR. If you spend it on an elite starting pitcher, you're probably just moving the chairs around, unless Carlos Correa is washed up at 29. Notably, this is going to have the same risk with any FA pitcher we could spend the money on (how did Carlos Rodon work out in 2023?) too, so you're not really reducing your risk. If you spend it on 2 players, then you're having to make a bet that you are going to get it right on 2 players that are undervalued in the market. I mean, it would be great to bring in 2 versions of 2023 Sonny Gray for $15M a pop, but...that seems unrealistic. Could you get 2 pitchers around that price that are likely to bring you 2-3 bWAR? It's possible, and it might even be more likely that they'll collectively generate more bWAR than Correa, but it also doesn't raise the ceiling on your team. (I'm using WAR as a shorthand for value here, not because it's the end-all-be-all of stats, but just because it's the easiest for comps) I guess I can't get behind the idea that Correa is washed up at 29. Especially not after seeing him in the playoffs.
  21. jmlease1
    So, Correa is already a declining player because he had a mediocre season while dealing with a significant injury that you want to dump, but if he bounces back and plays like he's capable of we should still trade him? To make room for Brooks Lee? Correa still isn't even 30. I love Brooks Lee, but he does not have the hands of Correa and certainly not the arm. SS has been a huge pain for this franchise and we've churned through a lot of mediocre to bad players in that slot over the last 15 years and never had anyone who has Correa's combination of offense and defense; at best it's been one or the other and frequently it hasn't been enough of either. I have little interest in dealing Brooks Lee, as there will be plenty of room for him on the roster if Polanco is traded or simply finishes his contract. But I really don't understand why Twins fans seem to turn on their highest paid players at the first opportunity. Correa was great his first year with the Twins, and mediocre/poor (mediocre by twins SS standards, poor by his) in 2023 (while being everything we wanted in the playoffs). And if he's great again this season, people are still looking to dump him?
  22. jmlease1
    It's a reasonable fit, but much like Polanco I'd hate to see Kepler moved in a salary dump. As part of a package to improve the rotation? More interested, but a little concerned that we're actually a little thin in the corners right now and would be asking a lot out of Larnach, who hasn't shown he can perform consistently (i.e., hit a curveball) in the majors.
  23. jmlease1
    It's always a little different to talk about players as organizational assets rather than just based on their ability either based on the previous year's output or projections for the next season. When you're just talking about who's gonna be good in 2024, it's a much simpler equation. As an organizational asset you do have to think about trade value, contract status, age and injury history might be even more important (or less), depth at the position matters. Buxton is the hardest case of them all. If he plays 125 games next season with 100 of them in CF, he would rocket back onto this list...but as long as he can't stay on the field (and in the field) he's not one of the top 20 assets, even if he still might actually be one of their best players. (a fact that might give people a little extra hope for 2024: we won the division and a playoff series without getting much from one of our most talented players) One of the reasons I'm comfortable with Correa ranking so high is because it's been so hard to lock in SS for the Twins. Yes, there was a little stability with Polanco there, but also no because he was having issues staying healthy there and the defense was inconsistent. Otherwise we've been churning through Simmons, Escobar, Florimon, Nishioka, Dozier, Plouffe, Hardy, Cabrera, Punto, etc for 15 years. Not needing to go look for the next SS is a big deal; it's just a tough spot to fill effectively. Correa had a bad year by his standards, but compared to what we've been at? And compared to where he's likely to be again considering he should be healthy and looked great in the playoffs, it's a no-brainer, even with the big contract. I get the concerns about making too much out of Walker Jenkins before he does anything. But he sure looks like the real deal, and other teams will value him incredibly highly so from an asset perspective you have to use that lens a little as well. If there's a chance that this dude is Bryce Harper, Part II? I mean, holy cow.
  24. jmlease1
    2019 team is a really interesting squad. yes, the superball helped them out, but it helped everyone out; it's not like they used one ball at Target Field and another one elsewhere. The depth in the lineup was pretty spectacular; this was a team that really wore pitchers out because there was nowhere you could get a break. (a season like this also really shows the advantage of OPS+ and ERA+ as stats, putting things in the context of the league that season) They just didn't have the starting pitching; Berrios was a playoff quality starter, and while Odorizzi looked the part that season as well, without Pineda they didn't have a 3rd guy, and Odo was pretty much a "5 and fly" guy. They did a good job shuffling together a quality bullpen, but this team showed how hard it was to slug your way to a title. Losing Buxton certainly didn't help. This was also the "don't hit it to the left side" team: Polanco, Sano, and Rosario were all more about the bat. Still a pretty great team; it's really hard to win a 100 games, even in an era where you had teams tanking, and the Bomba Squad was awfully fun to watch. 5 players with 30+ HRs, 8 with 20+ HRs, and 11 with 10+ HRs. Heck they hit over 300 doubles as a team as well! Of the 15 guys who played at least 50 games and had over 200 PAs, 13 had an OPS+ over 100. (the two that didn't were Marwin Gonzalez at 94, not bad for a utility guy, and Astudillo at 79)
  25. jmlease1
    Well, I'd say it's a lot easier for Arraez to take Carew's advice because there's a lot more similarity in how they approached hitting from the jump. Sano was a power hitter, Carew never was. (even if you throw in Sano's disastrous final season, he still averaged 20 HRs a season; Carew never HIT 20 HRs in a season. Carew was a far better player, and did it for much much longer, but Sano still out homered him 162-92 in 11 fewer seasons) Sano's decline had more to do with injuries than anything else; we did see Sano make adjustments in his career (for example attacking pitches earlier in the count rather than trying to work pitchers deeper and getting too many 2-strike counts), but it didn't matter as much once he couldn't stay on the field and couldn't catch up to fastballs like he used to. I'd say that had a lot more to do with "bad knee" than "didn't listen".
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