jmlease1

The only way I want Bader on this team is if I was convinced that Buxton could play 100 games in CF...and that's just a bet that the team can't really afford to make. (I wish it was different!) As pointed out very clearly here, Bader makes sense as a defensive replacement and platoon bat. If asked to play every day, he looks out of his depth and it's hard to have faith he'd be able to hit RHP at a passable level to fill in at CF for weeks at a time. The need for a strong CF contender is because you simply can't count on Buxton's health until he's had a full season again. Twins were smart to get MAT last year to insure themselves against Buck not being able to play in CF, and Castro's emergence added support as well. I guess I'd be a little too nervous that Buxton is going to miss a month and have a backup that is going to be a zero on offense too often. At that point why not try Martin? If MAT or Kiermaier are going elsewhere/not in the budget, I guess it's not the worst alternative...and keeping depth in place was important for this team in 2023. But we also saw in the Gallo escapades that they tend to be reluctant to cut a veteran loose even if they're not performing. If Bader can't hit his weight, would they move on in June and give Martin a chance or would they keep him hanging around as a zero offensively for 2 extra months?

I'm interested in the starting pitchers like Imanaga and Uwasawa? You can never have too many good starting pitchers and it certainly wouldn't hurt the Twins to have a southpaw starter like Imanaga. $15M per season is market rate for #3/4 starters. If Maeda is a comp for Uwasawa, that certainly doesn't offend my sensibilities. Some interesting players in here, I'd love to know what this FO thinks of the starters for sure. Uwasawa would also let us reference the "Ham Fighters" much more, which is always a bonus. I'm probably less interested in the position players/relievers; I just don't see a lot of room for anyone on the position side right now, and less budget allocation. While I wouldn't mind another more proven option in the bullpen, I do think the Twins have been smart not to hand out sizeable contracts to relievers, most of whom tend to be pretty fungible.

My bigger issue with bringing in someone like Turner is the only way to do it is to trade Farmer or Polanco, because there just isn't a roster spot otherwise, and while moving Farmer opens up some salary and a roster spot, we lose positional flexibility and defense. Moving Polanco will pretty much offset the salary, but it's unclear to me if the move upgrades the offense much (except against LHP) and again, you lose positional flexibility. Right now, the Twins are going to have 13 position players on the 26-man roster. Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Vazquez, Castro, and Farmer all have jobs. That's 12, and we still need one more OF, preferably one who can play CF (otherwise we're relying on Castro a lot). Turner is not an OF, so signing him while keeping everyone else means that Kirilloff has to play the OF and the only backup CF is Castro. Maybe trading Polanco for pitching and signing Turner works, but I get nervous about FA moves that rely on a trade as well.

I think this is right. I think the Twins internal options at 1B are pretty solid (Kirilloff's surgery was relatively minor, Miranda's RH bat would be a good fit to take the Solano role if he comes back healthy, and the Twins just added Severino (a switch-hitter) to the 40-man) and unless the Twins deal Polanco or Farmer, there's not a lot of space on the 26-man roster. Julien is also capable of playing 1B if Polanco isn't moved and I'm not sure we'd be doing all that much to improve the lineup by swapping Polanco's bat for Turner's and paying more. It's important to realize that Turner's splits historically have been pretty neutral; last season's destruction of LHP is the aberration not the rule. Maybe he's going to trend that way as he winds down his career...or maybe it was a blip from a relatively small sample size. Now, he's a very good hitter, period, even at this age so he's certainly a reasonable fit. (interesting how he's been so much better in his 30's than his 20's!) I think I would still rather keep Polanco than try and grab Turner (It's hard to see it being possible to have both, both from a roster space and a payroll standpoint).

It's really disappointing to see the early "we're cutting payroll" move from the franchise, because they have the resources and ability to hold the line, even with the TV contract in limbo, and now is exactly the time where they should be holding the line on payroll and trying to give themselves the opportunity to make waves in the playoffs. It's going to bring back all of the old "cheap Pohlads" conversation that's been so tiresome (especially over the last couple of seasons when it hasn't been true, especially when you look at the Twins in comparison to say Cleveland, whose fans would kill to have our level of payroll). Bad look, bad announcement, and very disappointing. We'll see where the final number lands; if it drops all the way down to the $125M range, then there's going to be a lot of scorn heaps upon the front office and the ownership...and they'll deserve every last bit of it. Twins fans packed their playoffs games and made this a loud and difficult place to play, and to revert down to $125M would be a pretty big insult and almost certainly be a signal that ownership wanted to pocket some additional money this season. If they land closer to $140M...it'll still be a little disappointing, but far less egregious. At that level they can address all the team needs and position themselves to be a contender and not fire-sale guys like Farmer, Polanco, and Kepler. I think that's one of the spots to watch: if any of those three get dealt and the return isn't for MLB players or prospects above A-ball...I think we'll have our answer. I actually think Bonnes is wrong about waving good-bye to prospects; I think a big slash to payroll makes it more likely we roll the dice on our high minor league depth. Which based on how our rookies did last year in comparison to our free agent signings, might not be the worst result for Twins fans, even if it is about money. Our most prominent FA signings last season were Vazquez, Gallo, and Solano. While Vazquez may have been good for the pitching staff and defense...he had one of his worst years as a pro. No one here needs to re-litigate Gallo. Solano was easily the best of the 3 and he was also the cheapest and most replaceable. Wallner, Julien, and Lewis on the other hand... All that said: not happy about this at all. hate to see anything that brings back the "typical Twins" cries and "Cheap Pohlads" days.

I think this is the biggest barrier to Solano coming back: there just isn't a roster spot for him if you keep Farmer and/or Polanco (unless you expect Farmer & Castro to be the 4th and 5th OF, which seems unlikely from the Twins). He was solid and did what was asked of him, but a healthy Miranda seems like as good a fit to fill that role and could still be stashed in AAA until needed. It's nice to have the Twins needing to move players with talent and value in order to find a roster spot for a FA signing. That's the problem I want to have...

I don't mind them sending him to see if he can find something down there, especially since he missed a big chunk of time with injuries. He's got very good strike zone recognition, but he doesn't make enough contact. (Comparing him to wallner is a little instructive: Wallner's minor league BA: .274. Sabato? .212. Similar issues when you comp him to Rooker.) Maybe he's just one of those guys who couldn't handle the change to wooden bats? That happens, but I'm guessing it's harder to spot who can handle the switch and who can't...

It's not even a 40-man spot, it's a 26-man spot. You don't get to just put him on the 40-man and then stash him in AAA and hope that he figures it out: if you take him in the Rule 5 you're committing to him on the MLB roster, and as a slugger who struggles to make contact in the minors, he's got very very slim odds of suddenly making it work in MLB. He doesn't play a premium defensive position or add anything there, so he's got little chance of being taken. Position players that get grabbed are ones that can add something defensively even if their bat isn't ready: catchers, SS, CF. Not slow 1B with a contact problem. I'm rooting for sabato, but he's probably not going to make it. Too little production, too many flaws, not enough other areas where he can impact a game. He's not getting on the 40-man, he's not getting picked in the Rule 5, and unless he starts finding something soon in the minors his pro career might be winding down too. Next season he'll be 25 and unless he makes a real step forward he's going to get released instead of promoted.

Injuries have certainly hampered a number of players on the 2020 top 30 list. That's a factor you really can't account for when drafting players and it's hard to put too much blame on the development staff if a player hasn't gotten there because of injury. They've done a pretty good job graduating players to to MLB overall, I'd say even if they haven't necessarily found the all-star quality players in this group (Duran is there, even if he didn't get picked, and Lewis certainly has the quality if he can stay on the field) but there are still others that could get there in time. But they've moved quite a few guys into being contributors at the MLB level with the franchise. I would discount Rooker's "emergence" a little; he finished the season with solid offensive stats, but he's a real negative as a defensive player and sure looks like the definition of a "good stats, bad team" player. Overall the Twins have also done a pretty good job in picking who they've moved on from: Baddoo wouldn't have a role on this team, and I doubt Wade would either. Superficially Rooker looks like a fit as a RH bat but he couldn't stick with either SD or KC last season and had his "big" season on a truly awful team and is a rotten defender. Between injury and awful hitting Rortvedt hasn't been able to stick and carve out a real MLB role. None of the MLB guys that the Twins either moved on from or got Rule 5'd have really come back to haunt them.

A pitching pipeline is more than just drafting and developing prospects, though. It's also about making the deals to pluck a pitcher out of another team's minor league system (a la Joe Ryan) and dealing prospects in a careful way to get MLB talent (Sonny Gray is the good example, Tyler Mahle is the bad one). It's the whole program. We're starting to see some of the prospects emerge.

It's not about the innings, it's the fact that Rice has a history of letting pitchers throw huge numbers of pitches in those outings. There's a real history at the school of junking players arms by not managing their workloads and letting a guy chuck 100-120 pitches at age 20 I wonder if Canterino might be able to go on the Johan Plan and shift to the bullpen as he works his way back from injury and be a weapon for 2 inning stints in the bullpen for a year or two while they work to build up strength and give him time and game experience and some healthy seasons before shifting him back into the rotation? You would think it would be possible. He's got the stuff to pitch in the majors to be sure.

It's kind of hard not to get excited about the massive upside of Jenkins, and so far he's been proving it. I'm still a big fan of Lee, but Jenkins does have a higher ceiling. Keaschall is pretty interesting and rising in my mind. he had zero problems moving into low A after basically getting an orientation to pro baseball in rookie ball and then got a quick promotion to high A where he had no problems in his short stint there either. He looks like someone who starts in High A in 2024 with an eye towards another early promotion to AA. Sure looks like he has the bat to impress. Looking forward to seeing how his power progresses and defense holds up. Kala'i Rosario is definitely a guy to watch as well. The ball explodes off his bat and if he can make enough contact he's going to be a dangerous hitter. He had a great year in Cedar Rapids, he's started punishing the ball in the AFL, and looks very ready for AAA at 21. twins have some fun prospects to watch, for sure.

I think monitoring the health status of Kirilloff and Buxton (and Miranda) as they recover and rehab from surgery is going to be a major factor in the decision-making in both trades and free agency, and frankly should be. Though regardless of how well Buxton looks to be doing and maybe they have solved his knee inflammation issue with this cleanup procedure, they will most certainly need to make a fairly significant decision to ensure they have CF well backed up. Do they have internal options? yes, in that Castro has shown he can field the position increasingly well and Austin Martin is also capable. But Martin is unproven at the plate and has an injury history of his own, so there is risk in managing this internally. That said, letting the rookies play worked out pretty well for the Twins with Julien, Lewis, and Wallner. The trade issue is a very interesting one, because unless they decide to move either Polanco or Farmer, there's really only one roster spot on the MLB club and that one would have to go to an OF. It's simply ridiculous to push Wallner or Julien or Lewis back down to AAA, so unless they move one of those other guys (or Kepler, but I've given up on Kepler going anywhere, and after the second half of the season he doesn't look like a guy you'd want to move on from...and they're much less overstocked on LH OFs than they used to be, for now) there simply isn't a lot of room on the position side, unless they become convinced that one of their recovery guys isn't going to be ready to go at the start of the year. If there's an early move, I would expect it to be on the pitching end of things, but we'll have to see. I suspect it may take a little while to see where the market shakes out on Gray and Maeda. I suspect Pagan moves along as being a little too spendy for the bullpen. Will they spend some money there? It seems out of character (and TBH I don't disagree with their general policy of not handing out 3-4 year deals to fungible relievers at $5-10M per like some teams do) but at the same time there are some holes and not a ton of obvious internal candidates.

I will miss Dick Bremer, and I have to say I was really impressed with how well he did adapting advanced stats into the broadcast over the past several years. It's never easy to change how you do business, and after so long calling games for the Twins I'm sure it wasn't easy for him to break patterns, but he did it and I thought did a fine job of it as kind of a "hey, I've been around a long time but look at this new stat, isn't it interesting?" way of trying to bring people along with it, rather than get too technical or fight back against it and be disparaging. Dick wasn't afraid to change with the game. I thought working with Morneau, Hawkins, Perkins, and even Smalley brought him some new energy after so many years mostly working with Bert, and it made it a better game to watch and listen to. Overall, he's been pretty great. I hope he was able to leave on his own terms, but it's hard to say. (The Athletic is reporting it that he was pushed out, but even then we don't know how gently it may have been) But 40 years is pretty amazing. A left-hand salute to you Dick Bremer!

I think people need to realistic about how many roster spots are out there for this team. Right now (assuming Kepler & Polanco's options are picked up, which WILL happen and none of the free agents are back) we're looking at position players being: Jeffers, Vazquez, Kirilloff, Julien, Polanco, Correa, Farmer, Lewis, Castro, Wallner, Buxton, and Kepler. That leaves 1 spot on the 26-man roster (we know they are planning a 13/13 split between position players and pitchers) for another position player, and it sure looks like they need another OF. Not a lot of room for Lee unless Polanco is traded and someone gets hurt. People keep mentioning the "Solano role": right now, there is no spot for a Solano on this roster; it's being filled by Julien already.

LOL, it's never going to stop unless the team wins the WS, and even then...I bet some people will be mad they didn't win it "the right way" or want them gone before "the luck runs out" or something. They shouldn't be immune from criticism, but overall they've done a very good job in rebuilding the depth in the minors and giving the franchise more chances of developing players we'll need to win. I think they've been smart in taking shots at guys from smaller colleges or northern schools that might not have as much prospect helium as others, but have characteristics they like and think can be developed. Culpepper seems to fit that mold and should be a fun player to track. will he keep throwing 6 pitches as he moves through the minors, or will he start refining the arsenal to his 4 most effective? Can he add a tick more velocity and hold it through his starts? Can he get deep into games and show the stamina to be effective on his pitches later in games? Looking forward to seeing what his answers are on the field. Always fun to find Day 3 guys!

you're probably thinking of Buxton, who did have some service time manipulation going on...but that was a different regime. They've changed the rules as well. At the end of the day it's more about whether or not Lee should be given the job immediately or if he should have to really earn it. I just hope that everyone who wants to toss Polanco over the side remembers that it's hardly unusual for even a great prospect to struggle a little in their first shot at MLB and it's equally normal for them to bounce up and down a couple of times before they stick. As amazing as Royce Lewis has been in MLB for the Twins and has totally earned a roster spot and starting job...he could also slump this year and need a few weeks in the minors to iron something out. It's not always linear. Lee's time is coming and he will almost certainly get a chance in MLB in 2024. He doesn't need to have it handed to him, and even if Polanco gets moved, if Farmer sticks then I still wouldn't expect Lee to be on the opening day roster unless someone gets injured in spring training.

Is Soto really on the market? I'll believe it when I see it, kinda feels like a "if you completely mortgage the future for him, we'll listen" scenario, and I don't think the Twins are interested in that...nor should they. He's a special bat and would improve the team's offense, but I'm guessing that means Brooks Lee would need to be headlining the deal...and SD is going to want more besides. He's an elite talent, but the financial fit and the opportunity cost seem off for the Twins, and frankly I'll believe he's truly available when I see it. Alonso fits the Twins needs better, but the Mets are a mess which sometimes makes it hard to deal. but even coming off a down year he's going to be pricey. Unclear to me that they're going to do a full tear down in NY; the guys they moved at the deadline in 2023 were all old. Alonso looks more like a guy who you extend and see if a quicker rebound is possible with him, Lindor, and Nimmo as the offensive core for the next 2-4 years. So I don't think he's going to be all that available. Santander's going nowhere, and isn't much of an upgrade. He's still cheap enough even for the Angelos family (if you think the Pohlads are bad go talk to O's fans, who would kill for our ownership group these days) and they're right in a window of contention. Is he likely to be a better offensive contributor than Kepler next season? Probably, but how much? we can be sure he's going to be much worse defensively. Santander doesn't save you any money either; he's likely to get as much or more than Kepler's $10M deal. McCormick would be more interesting to me if I thought the Astros were stupid enough to let him go for anything other than a monster package. Would he be a great fit for the Twins? Sure would, but why would the Astros let him go? They need him too and just because Dusty Baker (who is retired) didn't trust him against the Twins for...reasons doesn't mean the organization is going to move on. So I see 4 players here that I think are only gettable if you make massive offers to pry them out, not guys that a team is truly looking to move on from or do a salary dump. I don't think an overpay is the best move for the Twins.

Brooks Lee is a great prospect. It's pretty remarkable how fast he's moved through the Twins system already. Sure, he's a college bat and had 2 years of fairly high-level college experience before being drafted (his first season at Cal-Poly he only played 2 games), but he's still only played ONE full year of professional baseball and he's already in AAA and holding his own. I'm not ready to hand him a job in MLB in 2024 out the gate, though. He did have some things he needs to work on from AAA (and he's a smart guy and knows it) to be successful in MLB. Even if the Twins move on from Polanco or Farmer (possible, because they both have a lot of value in trade, their salaries are high enough to make an impact on team's wage bill, and with Castro's emergence and Julien's early success we still have depth) there's still probably not an open spot for him to start if everyone is healthy to start the season. It's perfectly fine for a guy who is a top prospect to start the season in AAA in his second full year of pro baseball. That's not holding him back, that's being smart in managing your roster and his career. Let him keep figuring it out, hopefully crush AAA pitching and force his way up and/or be ready if/when an injury hits the infield. If he's absolutely dominating, maybe it means a midseason trade of a guy like Polanco (who is still really really good) to make room for him, but these things have a tendency to work themselves out. I mean, I love Royce Lewis, but he's had more than a few injury issues. there's no need to force it with Brooks Lee just to move on to the new shiny thing. He's going to be a big part of the Twins future, he doesn't need to get a starting job on scholarship in 2024. He will get his chance, and I suspect he'll handle it just great.

I think we'll see a little regression, but that's fine for a utility guy, which is what Castro is. He shouldn't be a starter, and you don't want him getting 600 PAs, but he can be an important contributor like he was this season even if he regresses a little at the plate. If he can stay around average as a hitter, I think he's going to be nice player. I think the baserunning should stay viable: he's not likely to be dropping speed, if anything his instincts and feel out there might improve as he's gotten more experience attacking the bases. The defense impressed me: we didn't see him much at SS, but even there he looked comfortable. If he stays patient at the plate, which is definitely something the Twins preach, he's going to be the kind of guy we need. I wonder why Detroit didn't let him run more? He showed flashes of this ability in the minors. With the changes in the rules, he's definitely a guy to green light.

It's definitely odd. Wallner was excellent for the Twins. Equally confusing to me are the people who are putting Lewis back in the outfield: the team has said clearly that he's staying on the infield next season as well, so we should all stop with any roster construction that puts Royce in the OF. He's not going to play there absent an emergency and they're 100% NOT going to set up any plan for the season that expects him to play there. He might move to 2nd if they think having him there and Lee at 3rd is the best alignment in the future, but until Lee shoves his way up to MLB, I would expect Lewis to start the season at 3B.

All three of these players could be factors for the Twins next season. I'd add a 4th: Jair Camargo, in part because the bat has really developed and in part because it just seems unlikely the Twins will beat the odds and only use 2 catchers next season. I'm a huge Brooks Lee fan, but I'm not interested in dumping Polanco to hand Lee a position. He played well last season, but his bat didn't exactly dominate last year, especially in AAA, certainly not enough to hand him a starting job in MLB from Day One. No scholarships; if he's good enough to win the job, go out and win the job by looking great in spring training, destroying AAA, and forcing his way onto the roster. Martin is a player I find very interesting. He gets on base, he's a quality baserunner who will get steals, he's got good contact skills, and he can play all 3 OF positions and 2B. The RH bat makes him a nice fit as a 4th OF, but it would be a real risk to make him the backup CF out the gate. We don't know how well he's going to hit in MLB. Severino is a player whose development makes me feel comfortable about not needing to get 1B depth behind Kirilloff, if he's slow to recover from surgery in the offseason. He's going to K way more than some will find acceptable, but the ball explodes off his bat and he's got the hit tool to be successful. I haven't liked his D at 3B, and I think 1B is where his future is, but that's ok. His switch-hitting makes him a little more interesting and could increase his value. Depth was hugely important for the Twins in 2023; players like this make me hopeful it will be a strength again.

I'm still on Team SWR. He didn't have a great year in AAA and didn't take a step forward in 2023, but he's still very talented and has the stuff and pitches to be able to succeed. His biggest issue right now seems to be consistency: he has these stretches where he's a mess, then he puts together a run like he did for the end of the season where you see exactly why he's been a top prospect. Some of his success comes from having the different release point, which probably makes it a little challenging to tinker with his mechanics. You don't want to get away from that release that gives him deception and difference. If they can incorporate his legs a little better, add a little more velocity, that could give him a little more room to execute and might help him be more consistent? I think 2024 is going to be an important year for SWR because he's likely to get an opportunity in MLB if he's healthy and pitching well. How he responds to that placement will show some things about his development and potential. Right now he's probably 6th or 7th on the starter depth chart (I think 7th behind Festa right now, but he also could easily be the first call up from AAA, assuming Varland is in the MLB rotation or bullpen from the jump). I was expecting him to throw more in MLB in 2023, mostly because I figured the Twins would need more starters, but the reality was they didn't really need him. I think they will in 2024, and I think he can do the job.

I'm still on Team SWR and believe in his talent. but 2024 will be a big year for him: either he figures it out as a starter, or he's going to be heading to the bullpen. Right now he's still arguably 7th on the depth chart for Twins starting pitching (assuming Gray and Maeda are gone and Varland doesn't move permanently into the bullpen), which is a position I would have felt better about a year ago. I think the control issues were his biggest problem last season; it'll be interesting to see if there might have been a mechanical flaw that they can iron out over the winter? He did finish the season in better shape, with 7 straight starts going 5 of better, but he also only had one game the entire season where he went more than 6. Saint Paul was a tough environment for pitchers though. Prielipp was a risky pick, but it was worth a shot. Hopefully the Twins will be able to get him rehabbed and be able to see who he still might be as a pitcher before they have to make decisions on him via Rule 5. You have to push him down the ranks, but he was still a player worth taking a risk on. Salas was always probably ranked a little too high? He's still really young, at least. I can't see him getting protected from the Rule 5 draft and there's seemingly no way he gets tapped. He's nowhere near ready for MLB and wouldn't even contribute much defensively. If the three biggest fallers on a prospect chart are a guy with a significant injury, an A-ball guy who was something of a throw-in on a trade, and a AAA pitcher who has still thrown in the majors...I feel ok about the overall state of the minors.

It's really good news for both the Twins and for Kirilloff. Much more likely that we don't need to invest significant resources in 1B depth in the off-season and can stay focused on improving the rotation, strengthening the bullpen, and ensuring that we're covered in CF. Kirilloff has hit when he's been healthy. It looks like they've finally solved the wrist problem through the Kirk Gibson surgery he had done last season, and this shoulder issue was relatively minor. His history means the Twins have to be prepared for him potentially missing time during the season, but we also have good internal options to support in Julien, Miranda, and Severino to provide depth. There's few bench spots available on this roster because the Twins will carry 13 pitchers (even when their starters are going long enough consistently enough that that last man in the bullpen doesn't pitch more than once a week at best), so there's only room for 4 bench jobs, and 1 goes to a backup catcher (Vazquez), 1 goes to a backup SS/INF (Castro/Farmer), 1 goes to a 4th OF who can play CF (Taylor again?), so there's not a lot of space for anyone else.