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Within the span of one week, Minnesota's top three free agent pitchers all just came off the board, leaving a definitive and sizable void remaining in the Twins staff. How will the front office make up for the losses of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Emilio Pagan, who combined to account for nearly half of the value delivered by Twins pitchers this past season? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Erik Williams, Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports The story of the 2023 Twins pitching staff was the gains they made following an underwhelming 2022 campaign: From one year to the next, Minnesota improved from 20th among MLB teams in fWAR (10.7) to fourth (19.7). Conversely, the story of this offseason so far for the Twins pitching staff has been losses -- specifically, the confirmed departures of three pitchers who were instrumental in driving this year-over-year improvement. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Emilio Pagan all took huge steps forward in terms of production, combining for 7.9 fWAR between the three of them. That number figure accounts for nearly the entirety of the team's 9-WAR increase from below-average in 2022 (10.7) to elite in 2023 (19.7), and it represents 40% of Minnesota's total pitching WAR this past season. Given how they contributed to one of the league's best pitching staffs, it comes as no surprise that these three free agents were all in high demand, and among the first to come off the market. Each received a deal that exceeded many expectations, and kept the cost-cutting Twins from seriously pursuing reunions with any of the three. Now, they're tasked with making up for all that lost pitching value. In some ways, these players and their own journeys represent the path to another top-tier pitching staff next year. The Twins need other players to step up and break through in the same ways as this trio just did: In 2022, Gray was more on the precipice of being a dependable frontline starter, battling with durability issues that limited him to 120 innings. In 2023 he pulled it all together and had a career year. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober seem to currently be in similar places to where Gray was a year ago, with the the ingredients to reach another level if they can stay healthy and lock in. In 2022, Maeda didn't pitch at all. He was recovering from Tommy John surgery, which set him up for a return in 2023 that was, overall, good enough to earn the 35-year-old a $24 million contract in free agency. Here the parallel to Chris Paddack is self-evident, and Paddack has a head-start on where Maeda was a year ago, in that he already returned to the major-league mound successfully. In 2022, Pagan... well, we know how things went for him. Despite having enough raw stuff and ability to preserve the team's faith, he repeatedly imploded on the mound in big spots. But the volatility of relief pitching works both ways, and sometimes it really does click in almost an instant for talented arms. There are several other players in Minnesota's bullpen mix who could feasibly make a Pagan-like leap next year, and the impending return of flame-thrower Matt Canterino looms large in this regard. Of course, even if the Twins are able to make up for some of these key free agency losses via internal improvements, there is no denying that they need to look outside in order to replenish their pitching staff, which has a few existing weak spots in addition to its clear openings. This front office has proven it has no appetite for outbidding the field to buy high in free agency. If they make acquisitions on this front, it will likely be of the lower-caliber variety (think J.A. Happ) or a high-risk venture with some reward. More likely the Twins will use the same avenue to try and replace these pitchers as they used to acquire all three in the first place: trading for multiple years of control at a reasonable price point. In each case the front office dealt from its pitching depth (Chase Petty, Brusdar Graterol, Taylor Rogers) to target arms that could factor into their plans -- including Paddack. This plan comes with its own premium but it can be financially feasible given the team's annoying constraint. How close can they come to replacing the upside and stability they just lost, and what will they have to give up to do so? These are the questions looming as the Twins reckon with the finality of Gray, Maeda and Pagan officially moving on, leaving critical roles in the rotation and bullpen vacant. I suspect that as usual the Twins front office will get creative and show patience. But options are prone to start coming off the board quickly as the Winter Meetings get underway on Monday. View full article

The Minnesota Twins had some of the best pitching in MLB this past season. The pitching core carried the team throughout the season, and managed to keep the team around .500 even when the bats weren’t showing up. Now, they need a new core. Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports This past week, the club lost two of its most valuable assets on the pitching staff, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. Both pitchers had impressive seasons, considering Maeda was returning after an 18-month recovery from Tommy John surgery in 2021. The club has suffered so long without good pitching, so why would the front office allow such difficult departures? Because it was a part of the plan all along. There have been articles and rumors about the Twins wanting to cut a large chunk of their payroll, and even with keeping Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, the Twin's front office right now has an $88-million dollar payroll, a far cry from the 2023 $154-million Opening Day figure. The front office was well aware that three things would happen: They were going to lose Gray and Maeda, they would need more pitching, and they would need to trade some pieces to obtain new arms. Enter the club options of Polanco and Kepler. The Twins first picked up the options for Polanco ($10 million) and Kepler ($10.5 million), two of the Twins' cornerstone players and a fan-favorite duo. Kepler and Polanco have been a part of the Twins organization for 14 seasons, both signing as international free agents from Germany and the Dominican Republic, respectively. They were roommates in spring training for the 2010 season, forming what has proved to be an unbreakable bond. Naturally, when their options were picked up, fans were relieved and excited, but that’s not the end of the story. Polanco and Kepler are huge trade pieces for the Twins. Both players had their ups and downs in 2023. There are reasons why each is an imperfect fit for the 2024 team, but they each have considerable trade value. Kepler played the entire season, starting slowly in the first half, then finding his stride after the All-Star break. He had his best season since 2019, with 24 homers and a .260/.332/.484 line. Kepler hit in the second half of the season like he knew his job was in jeopardy and he’s still one of the best defensive right fielders in the league, but is it enough? Unlike the potential in the infield, the Twins don’t have much immediate help coming in the way of outfielders. With Trevor Larnach being the other option for right field, trading away Kepler would be difficult to justify. The best option would be to bring in someone who would become a full-time outfielder for years to come and be ready to release Kepler after the 2024 season. The infield has some of the best players, and while Polanco is a fantastic, versatile player and a switch-hitter, the club has a lot of young talent that stepped up for the consistently injured veterans--and there is still more at Triple-A St. Paul. Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, both of whom have been improving and showing why they should get their shot in 2024, are knocking on the door. Polanco only played 80 games in the 2023 season due to a long and strenuous battle with injury, but when he was in the game, he produced at the plate and was able to cover second base and the hot corner. Polanco has another club option for 2025, worth $12.5 million with a $750,000 buyout. So, what’s out there that would allow the Twins to get value for Polanco and not to miss Kepler after his deal is up? Only a few pieces are needed to boost the Twins to where they are looking to be, and they don’t have to go far to find that talent. The Brewers have a lot of talent in their farm system, and some that have seen MLB time and who helped them reach the postseason in 2023. A small-market team with a surfeit of both relief pitchers and outfielders, they make perfect suitors. Based on the Twins’ need to replace so many high-quality innings, someone like Bryse Wilson, a rubber-armed long reliever, would be an excellent acquisition. Wilson, a righty who will turn 26 years old this month, has been in the league since 2018, having been drafted in 2016 by the Braves. He spent his formative years in Atlanta before being traded to Pittsburgh, who flipped him to Milwaukee last winter for a minimal return. Last season, Wilson pitched 76 2/3 innings, with six wins and no losses. One of his best games was a 10-6 win over the Padres late in August, in which he worked four scoreless innings of emergency long relief and struck out four, allowing only three baserunners. Wilson ended his season with some of the best numbers of his career: a 2.58 ERA, a1.10 WHIP, a 4.17 FIP. He’ll make around $1.5 million in his first trip through arbitration in 2024, but he’s a decent bargain at that price. Wilson needn’t be the centerpiece of a trade, though. Joey Wiemer, a loose cannon at the plate and in the outfield, still has a lot of potential and could be a huge acquisition. Weimer is a really strong hitter, but he struggled a lot throughout the season. Looking at his numbers, his best month at the plate was in June (.233/.337/.512) and that gives a small glimpse into what kind of player he is. Even with the poor numbers in July and August, Wiemer crushed it against lefties (.267/.298/.517) through the whole season, which is a huge asset to the lineup. He also has outstanding defensive metrics, with five total Defensive Runs Saved in 1,026 innings as a rookie, showing that he has room to grow offensively and defensively with plenty of years left to play. The Brewers’ surplus of young outfielders may be the blessing the Twins seek. With Kepler being a free agent next year, being 31 years old, and the unknown of Buxton, contributing to the overall inconsistency of the outfield, a player like Weimer could solve many problems for the team. Over at Brewer Fanatic, writer Ryan Pollak even made the case Thursday afternoon that Wiemer will become trade bait. One pipe dream would be to acquire Corbin Burnes in a trade for Polanco. There is still uncertainty as to whether the Brewers are looking to trade Burnes, but based on the information out there, it would take at least $250 million for the Brewers to retain him in free agency after 2024. He’ll make in excess of $15 million via arbitration in 2024, an onerous amount for the Brewers at their expected payroll level The Twins could “rent” him for a year, but the Brewers know what he’s worth, and the package for Burnes would likely include a lot more than Polanco, such as the Twins’ 2024 competitive-balance draft pick or prospects. The front office has been known to shock the fan base in the offseason, so they could shock us again, but it’s more than likely that the Twins would rather hold onto the prospects and trade for controllable assets that would provide long-term solutions, like Wilson and Wiemer. With so many things up in the air, it’s really hard to say which way the Twins front office will go, but one thing for sure is to use Polanco and/or Kepler as trade pieces at some point to get the pitching that they need. It’s all part of the plan. View full article

At this point, the Minnesota Twins have yet to make a significant move this offseason. We have heard plenty about the payroll sliding backward, but does that have anything to do with the front office opting against bringing back Sonny Gray or Kenta Maeda? Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports Heading into the winter, Derek Falvey’s shopping list was expected to include a right-handed bat, a center fielder, and a starting pitcher. That last item on the list could be the most important, after Rocco Baldelli’s club had one of the better groups in the game a season ago. Minnesota still has depth, but Pablo Lopez will be looking for a running mate. Both Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray threw substantial innings for the Twins last season. The latter finished runner-up to Gerrit Cole for the American League Cy Young award. That reflected how good of a season he had and indicated the payday he would command from any potential suitor. While Maeda didn’t have the same tier of results, he fared well, and deals for pitchers like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson paved a path for him to benefit financially. So why didn’t the Twins show a greater desire to retain either of their departing starters? That answer is multi-faceted, but it isn’t exactly complicated. This front office has shied away from paying arms in free agency. That’s a logical stance when you understand that you’re getting someone else’s leftovers. Every free agent is hitting the market because their former employer allowed them to do so, and they are likely doing so at what baseball calls an advanced age. The Twins, under Falvey, have never spent more than $20 million on a starting pitcher, and that was a two-year deal for Michael Pineda that allowed him to bide his time during rehab from Tommy John surgery. Expecting them to change course on that process with Maeda (as he enters his late 30s) or Gray (as he’s paid more based on recent performance) never seemed like a good bet. Realistically, the Twins didn’t retain the services of either Gray or Maeda because the length of each deal wouldn’t make sense. Maeda finally landed a deal that wasn’t full of incentives, and he’ll make a base salary nearly the same as the eight-year deal he signed when coming over from Japan. A total guarantee of $24 million didn’t need to be prohibitive for Minnesota, but their focus was on Maeda being a one-year arm for them, if he was to be back at all. Scott Boras was set on finding at least a two-year deal, and with the Tigers having more of a need, they were the team that bit. Regarding Gray, Minnesota was interested in making a short-term deal. They proved the earnestness of that sentiment by making the Qualifying Offer. Of course, Gray would never accept that one-year pact, so it was a moot point, but the Twins would have gladly paid $25 million for a season or two of his services. The problem is that the market was always going to give Gray a third year, and Minnesota being interested in that seemed like a non-starter. He hasn’t been the most durable arm throughout his career, and it’s unlikely that will change for the better as he ages. St. Louis had to find their ace, and pairing talent with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt before it got too late was necessary. Now, the front office is tasked with replacing the innings and starts made by both Maeda and Gray. They went into the offseason assuming that would be the case, and now it has become a reality. That the Twins will stand pat remains highly unlikely, and expecting them to add someone like Dylan Bundy, J.A. Happ, or Matt Shoemaker doesn’t seem realistic, either. They are already exploring the trade market, and it seems most likely that they will make their addition that way. Whom they land remains uncertain, but plenty of fine candidates are out there. After a successful run in 2023, it may have been fun to run it back. A similar outcome with everyone repeating success or performing at a higher level wouldn't have been probable, though, and Minnesota must carve a new path toward more optimal results. Maeda was a fun way to get involved in the Mookie Betts excitement with the Dodgers, and acquiring Gray was a well-executed move that has come full circle. It’s okay to be sad that both are gone, while understanding that the right decision was made. View full article

The offseason is off to a quiet start across the league, but things figure to start heating up as the Winter Meetings fast approach. Here's a quick rundown of where things stand with the Twins, who've been busy setting themselves up to make some moves. Image courtesy of Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports There's no other way to frame it: The start of this offseason has been flat-out deflating for Minnesota Twins fans. After watching a promising ALDS fizzle out at Target Field, we've since been informed directly by the team's leadership that we can expect payroll cuts next year. It's a splash of cold water following the franchise's much-awaited resurgence. Thus far, everything we've seen from the Twins in a slow start to the offseason has been suggestive of a commitment to the status quo. There have been no real surprises or curveballs yet. But that doesn't mean some aren't in store. Read on to catch up on any moves or headlines you might've missed. Twins Extend Arbitration To All Eligible Players Minnesota's front office characteristically waited until the very last minute to make their decisions public, but ultimately ruffled no feathers when the deadline to extend 2024 contracts for arbitration-eligible (and pre-arb) players arrived on November 17th. The Twins extended offers to the following seven players, whose salary estimates for next year are listed alongside: Kyle Farmer, $6.6M Willi Castro, $3.2M Caleb Thielbar, $3.0M Ryan Jeffers: $2.3M Alex Kirilloff: $1.7M Nick Gordon, $1.0M Jorge Alcala, $1.0M Just because these players were offered arbitration, that does not assure they'll be on the team next year. In some cases (i.e. Farmer) it's probably more likely they won't be. But for now, all seven remain in the Twins' plans. Prospects Added to 40-Man, Suspects Subtracted Earlier, the Twins had added four prospects to their 40-man roster in order to protect them from the upcoming Rule 5 draft: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Austin Martin, Jair Camargo, and Yunior Severino. You can read about the minor-leaguers who were NOT added, and thus left vulnerable to getting plucked away when the Rule 5 takes place, here. These additions have been counterbalanced by a number of marginal or injured players being removed and outrighted from the 40-man roster, including all the departing free agents (Michael A. Taylor, Tyler Mahle, Donovan Solano, Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, Dallas Keuchel, Emilio Pagan, Joey Gallo) as well as relievers Jovani Moran and Ronny Henriquez. Gray was extended a qualifying offer, which he rejected, so in the likely event he signs elsewhere, the Twins will get draft pick compensation. All of this shuffling leaves the 40-man roster at 36, as the Twins turn their attention toward acquiring new talent. Twins Said To Be Shopping Vázquez Last offseason, the Twins' top priority was signing Christian Vázquez, and they got it done before Christmas. This year, their top priority already be unloading his contract. According to MLB insider Robert Murray, via Foul Territory TV, "The Twins are looking to cut payroll and have aggressively tried to move certain players, including Christian Vázquez." Just a bummer of a headline and tone-setter for this offseason, as alluded earlier. For the Twins to immediately go into open cost-cutting mode following such an energizing, breakthrough season is horrible optics. Alas, here we are. Vázquez is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons, but rated out well defensively and clearly has some level of demand in a sparse catching market. Still, it's tough to envision the Twins getting much more than salary relief in return for trading the veteran and his remaining two years, $20 million. Detroit Zeroing In on Maeda Elsewhere, it sounds like momentum is building toward a deal between Maeda and the Detroit Tigers, which would keep the right-hander in the AL Central following his four-year stint with the Twins. The Twins were said to be in the mix for Maeda, but I don't get the sense they are prepared to win a bidding war for the 35-year-old coming off a good-not-great season. With Detroit looking to take a step forward and overtake the Twins after finishing second this year, snagging away Maeda would be an interesting development for a budding rivalry. The Hot Stove has been cool thus far, but it's bound to heat up soon. Stay tuned to Twins Daily for real-time coverage and discussion of the MLB offseason. View full article

Jon Heyman is reporting that the Twins and Tigers are interested in signing Kenta Maeda. He calls Detroit’s interest “serious” while also saying there might be other clubs interested in adding the veteran starting pitcher. Will Maeda end up on another AL Central team? View full rumor

After four years with the Twins, the right-hander will pitch the next two years for a division rival. Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins must say goodbye to Kenta Maeda, as the veteran right-hander inked a two-year, $24-million deal with the Detroit Tigers. Maeda, a familiar face from his time in Minnesota, will now don the uniform of a division rival, forcing the Twins to grapple with his presence on the mound as an opponent. Earlier reports had linked Maeda to the Tigers, but the Twins were still in the mix, albeit with a preference for a shorter-term commitment. Unfortunately for Minnesota, the Tigers secured Maeda with a multi-year deal, closing the door on any potential reunion. With Maeda's arrival in Detroit, the Tigers gain an experienced arm for their young rotation, helping to replace Eduardo Rodriguez, who became a free agent after opting out of his deal earlier this month. Maeda, entering his age-36 season, is expected to stabilize Detroit's starting staff. Meanwhile, losing Maeda means the Twins must replace a pitcher who provided stability, interspersed with bursts of excellence when healthy. Maeda became a full-time starter after being acquired by the Twins from the Dodgers for Brusdar Graterol before the 2020 season, and he shined. He finished second in the AL Cy Young voting after that 2020 COVID-shortened season, throwing 66 2/3 innings of 2.70-ERA ball. His 2021 season was much more of a struggle, ending with Tommy John surgery, which also cost him the entirety of the 2022 season. He returned in 2023, but battled a triceps injury that cost him most of the first half of the season. He then reverted to his old form, throwing 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA from June 23 on. Last season was the last year of the eight-year contract with the Dodgers he signed when he came over from Japan. The deal gave only $3 million annually in guaranteed money, with incentives for starting that could raise his salary to $10 million or more each year. That team-friendly contract was an appealing aspect of acquiring Maeda. His new deal is much more standard for pitchers, guaranteeing an eight-figure salary regardless of his health or role. In Twins Daily's Offseason Handbook, we estimated he would receive a 1-year, $12-million contract, but we debated internally if he would end up with a multi-year deal. The Tigers reportedly landed him, despite interest by the Twins in re-signing him, by agreeing to the extra year. The Twins are also in the market for a veteran free-agent starting pitcher to replace Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray. Maeda is the fourth veteran starting pitcher to sign, joining Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M) and other ex-Twins Kyle Gibson (1-year/$12M) and Lance Lynn(1-year/$11M). Twins Daily's Offseason Handbook profiled an additional 18 available starters that will likely be on the Twins' wish list. Other available pitchers at Maeda's level included Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, and Frankie Montas. The Twins must now consider these other, less familiar, names. View full article

The MLB offseason requires creativity for mid-market teams who want to remain competitive. The Twins have a recent history of swapping big leaguers for big leaguers with other teams, but has that worked? Let’s turn to history for the answer. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA Today No team wins every trade, but competitive teams need to win more than they lose. It's pretty straightforward to pick winners and losers when a team trades MLB contributors from a position of strength to bring in other MLB contributors for a position of need. These are often called challenge trades, and the Twins have made them a habit under this front office's tenure. I challenge you (no pun intended) to think of an offseason trade since 2016 that sent away an MLB player for the Twins. If that trade wasn't Gio Urshela for Alejandro Hidalgo, you just thought of a challenge trade. The only time that the Twins have truly sold—i.e., traded an MLB player for a prospect—was that second Urshela trade. Below, I've listed every trade that could be considered an offseason challenge trade (or sell) under Derek Falvey. Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. A player's performance is not included if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the original trade. This analysis doesn't have future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 15th, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn't available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. See the Yankees trade below for an example of why comparing statistics isn't ideal. Although the Twins lost the trade by WAR, it cleared the salary owed to Josh Donaldson and gave them the room to sign Carlos Correa to his first Minnesota contract. Without further ado, my subjective order is from best to worst. 3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Gio Urshela (551 PA, 119 OPS+, 3.1 bWAR), Gary Sanchez (471 PA, 88 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Josh Donaldson (666 PA, 90 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (892 PA, 81 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR), Ben Rortvedt* (79 PA, 28 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota. There's much to unpack in this trade, primarily orchestrated to clear up salary room from 2022 to 2024 and rid themselves of Donaldson. Donaldson was a solid contributor for New York in 2022 but wore out his welcome, and the Yankees waived him before the end of 2023. Kiner-Falefa also lost his starting shortstop role, handling a super-utility role when his contract ended after 2023. Rortvedt has played minimally in New York due to injury. Urshela and Sanchez spent a year in Minnesota, but neither returned for 2023. Although both Urshela and Sanchez had contracts that offset some of Donaldson's, the Twins are no longer paying either, and that excess money helped to bring in Correa before 2022 and 2023. 1/20/23: Minnesota acquires Pablo López* (194 IP, 117 ERA+, 3.3 bWAR), Jose Salas* (has not reached Minnesota), Byron Churio* (has not reached Minnesota) from Miami for Luis Arraez* (617 PA, 133 OPS+, 4.9 bWAR), -1.6 bWAR for Minnesota. The Twins tabbed López as the Opening Day starter after the trade that sent the reigning batting champion Arraez to Miami. After four great starts and a four-year, $73 million extension, López finished seventh in the AL Cy Young. Churio and Salas were promising prospects many did not anticipate being included in the deal, though it's questionable whether either will make it to the big leagues. Arraez won his second consecutive batting title and placed eighth in the 2023 NL MVP voting. He's under team control in Miami through 2025. 2/9/20: Minnesota acquires Kenta Maeda (277.1 IP, 106 ERA+, 3.0 bWAR), Jair Camargo* (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (NL) for Brusdar Graterol* (173.2 IP, 158 ERA+, 3.5 bWAR), Luke Raley (72 PA, 43 OPS+, -0.5 bWAR), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota. Maeda finished second in the 2020 Cy Young voting during the shortened season but struggled in 2021, had Tommy John surgery, and re-established himself in 2023, though not without continued injury concerns. At the time of the trade, the Twins knew he may have elbow issues. Graterol has been a solid force in LA's bullpen when healthy. Camargo has not reached the majors, while the Twins traded Raley to Tampa. This trade also sent a 2nd round pick to LA. 4/7/22: Minnesota acquires Chris Paddack* (27.1 IP, 95 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Emilio Pagán (132.1 IP, 112 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR), Brayan Medina (has not reached Minnesota) from San Diego for Taylor Rogers (41.1 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR), Brent Rooker (7 PA, -100 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +1.1 bWAR for Minnesota. This infamous trade sent away the Twins' top reliever, Rogers, who struggled in San Diego. Rooker, a depth outfielder, only registered seven plate appearances for the Padres but wound up a 2023 All-Star with Oakland. In return, the team received Paddack, who had known elbow issues, pitched well in five starts, then underwent Tommy John. He returned as a bullpen piece down the stretch in 2023 and will likely open 2024 in the starting rotation. Pagán largely struggled through 2022 as a high-leverage arm, but he posted a sub-3.00 ERA and led the bullpen in innings in 2023. Medina is currently in Rookie ball as a starter, and the Twins retained most of Rogers's salary. 3/12/22: Minnesota acquires Isiah Kiner-Falefa (did not reach Minnesota), Ronny Henriquez (11.2 IP, 173 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR) from Texas for Mitch Garver (559 PA, 121 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR), -2.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Coming out of the lockout, Minnesota made a move that killed two birds with one stone: got a return for the off-injured Garver and filled a hole at shortstop. Garver has dealt with injuries in Texas but has still hit well, though relegated to mainly DH. Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for one day before getting traded again, and Henriquez threw a few innings in 2022, but the Twins released him after the 2023 season. 11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Alejandro Hidalgo (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (AL) for Gio Urshela (130 PA, 84 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR), -0.2 bWAR for Minnesota. Urshela became a fan-favorite and consistent performer in his year in Minnesota. However, he would have likely been non-tendered in arbitration to prevent a perceived logjam on the Minnesota infield. He played all around the infield and had been moderately productive for the Angels before a broken pelvis ended his season. Hidalgo is still 20 years old and a starter at High-A. 2/5/21: Minnesota acquires Shaun Anderson (8.2 IP, 47 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR) from San Francisco for LaMonte Wade Jr.* (1151 PA, 112 OPS+, 3.9 bWAR), -4.4 bWAR for Minnesota. In retrospect, this was an unforced error. The Twins had two similar options for their fourth outfielder going into 2021—Wade and Jake Cave—and they elected to trade Wade, who, when healthy, has been a consistent presence in the Giants lineup. Cave struggled over his last two years in Minnesota, and Anderson, the AAAA lottery ticket they got for Wade, was out of the organization before the year ended. Total WAR gained: -8.8 bWAR Unfortunately, by WAR, the Twins have given up more than they've brought in in MLB-for-MLB trades. However, there's room for discussion. The team could say that they'd do the Donaldson, Arraez, and Graterol trades, even though they have not shown favorably by WAR, given the context of the trades. I said at the beginning that it's easy to see who wins and loses, but it's a little trickier to contextualize them. What do you think? Do you trust the team to trade away big leaguers again in 2024? View full article

Jon Heyman is reporting that the Twins and Tigers are interested in signing Kenta Maeda. He calls Detroit’s interest “serious” while also saying there might be other clubs interested in adding the veteran starting pitcher. Will Maeda end up on another AL Central team?

With free agency now officially open for business, the Minnesota Twins will work towards putting their offseason plans into motion. Derek Falvey leads the front office, and Thad Levine remains with the organization. What players are on their way out, and who may be retained? Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Each year, there is a significant amount of roster turnover at the major league level. Thankfully the Twins saw an significant influx of youth on the 2023 team, and that should be reflected in continuity. Carlos Correa has been signed long-term, and if he can remain on the field, then Byron Buxton’s veteran presence will also be felt. The Twins finished the season with eight unrestricted free agents heading out, and those players represent varying degrees of probability of return. Sonny Gray is really the only monumental name among the group, but more than a few of these players generated key contributions for Minnesota this last season. In no particular order, here’s who is hitting the market for Minnesota and the likelihood that they return for 2024. 1B/OF Joey Gallo - 0% Coming to Minnesota after unsuccessful stints in Los Angeles and New York, there was some hope that a smaller market may benefit the veteran slugger. He played a solid first base when Alex Kirilloff couldn’t go, and he factored in at multiple outfield positions for the Twins. At $11 million in 2023, he never came close to providing that value. He was hot out of the gate, then never found the same production level. Minnesota does need a big bat and help at first base in 2024, but these two parties are best to distance from one another. Gallo did finish with a 101 OPS+, so it wasn’t as though his year was catastrophic, but he shouldn’t land a deal for much more than half of that next season. SP Sonny Gray - 10% It’s not as though the Twins don’t need a starter of Gray’s caliber, and they two sides have familiarity. He has said the right things about liking Minnesota and being open to returning, but money talks. Gray will be 34 years old, and this is probably the last opportunity for him to land a multi-year deal. Minnesota will give Gray a qualifying offer, and they’d love to pay him $20.5 million for the 2024 season. They may even be open to paying that same amount for the 2025 season. Where it seems the Twins would draw the line is in spending a substantial amount on a 36-year-old in 2026, and one that has thrown more than 180 innings just once since 2015. Gray’s time with the Twins afforded him the opportunity for another big payday, and he should go and look for it. SP Tyler Mahle - 30% After acquiring Mahle from the Cincinnati Reds at the trade deadline in 2022, the Twins got minimal run from him before his elbow blew out in 2023. For pitchers in similar positions, like Michael Pineda and Chris Paddack, Minnesota has made deals that essentially pay for the rehab, in exchange for a chance to see the results. Something like that could work for Mahle, but neither side has indicated it being likely. The Twins may want to wash their hands from the move that sent Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the Reds. Also, Mahle isn’t going to factor into the Twins' plans for 2024, so bringing him back would be about how the 2025 rotation is viewed. There’s a possibility that Falvey sees this as an opportunity to get more while paying less, but there is plenty of uncertainty here. OF Michael A. Taylor - 60% It’s a given that Minnesota needs not only a backup plan for Buxton but, more logically, a starting option. Taylor filled that role for Baldelli wonderfully this year, but can you count on him to hit enough? His 94 OPS+ was the second-highest mark of his career, and although he posted a 90 OPS+ in 2022, it’s been considerably below that for years. Taylor will be 33 years old in 2024, and he will command more than the $4.5 million he made this season. There aren’t many great outfield options for Minnesota, and it seems unlikely they’ll spring for someone at the level of Cody Bellinger to replace him. Taylor is maybe the most likely free agent for the Twins to retain, but expecting a repeat of 2023 seems lofty at best. RP Emilio Pagán - 20% After drawing the ire of Minnesota’s fanbase during a poor 2022, Pagán showed the front office was right to believe in his peripherals with a strong 2023. He changed his pitch mix a bit and worked his way back to a high-leverage role. The Twins bullpen has some open spots for the year ahead, but they could look in a different direction. Pagán will find suitors this offseason, especially after his solid rebound. He has talked about the comfort here and the belief from the front office could lend him towards finding common ground in a deal. Relievers tend to swap teams often, though, and Pagán looking to pitch in a setup or closer role for another organization would be a logical step in 2024. UTIL Donovan Solano - 10% Signed as an afterthought right before the year started, Solano played an integral role for the Twins. At times, he was the only first base option, and he filled in all over the place. Despite being 35 years old, Solano rebounded from 2022 and posted a solid 110 OPS+. It wasn’t the inflated 127 OPS+ he had during 2020, but Solano has been a solid offensive contributor since 2019. Replacing Solano isn’t a straightforward task for the Twins, but bringing him back isn’t a safe fix either. He plays similar positions to some Twins prospects who will be close to a return, and players like Brooks Lee or Jose Miranda could replicate his production. Ultimately, the Twins need to find someone for Solano's role, but it doesn’t seem like they would just run it back. SP Kenta Maeda - 25% Maeda gets lost in the shuffle with Gray highlighting the departing class. He could be the most cost-effective to bring back, though, and he had a successful overall season. Although injury took away from his availability, Maeda posted a 3.36 ERA in his final 88 1/3 innings, which spanned 17 games. There was the blowup game against the New York Yankees in April, but almost every other outing was relatively successful. Maeda will be 36 years old next season, which means he could potentially be had on a one-year deal. The Twins have leaned more towards short-term deals with pitching free agents, and one like Maeda brings familiarity with what to expect. The durability concerns are real, but this is a much higher water mark that Minnesota has gravitated toward compared to previous free-agent arms. SP Dallas Keuchel - 0% Brought in to eat innings down the stretch, Keuchel did everything that was expected of him. The Twins didn’t think they were getting the Cy Young version, but they hoped to avoid the 2022 version as well. Keuchel proved he had something left in the tank by throwing some solid innings in St. Paul, and though plenty of the results were ERA-related, he worked his way back to the big leagues. Minnesota saw Keuchel strike out very few batters, and his 5.97 ERA didn’t lean at all toward the 4.56 FIP that was behind it. He did contribute 37 2/3 innings after August, though, and that kept the rest of the staff fresh for what was envisioned as a deeper postseason run. There won’t be a need for a veteran spot starter to open the season, but Keuchel should undoubtedly get a look from some team if he wants it in 2024, and more offseason work could push the effectiveness up a bit further as well. What free agents for Minnesota are you hoping to return? Is there someone you certainly don’t want to see back? Share your thoughts in the comments. View full article

The Twins need another starter to solidify themselves with the best chance to capture the American League Central Division title again in 2024. Aside from Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray, this free agent class is meek in depth for top to middle-rotation guys. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA Today Sports There is one name that stands out among free agent starters available that not only fits into the mold as a good option for the Twins budget but also his stuff: Michael Wacha. Wacha’s situation is more tricky than others this off-season. The Padres have a two-year, $32 million team option built into his one-year deal from last off-season, but Wacha also has a $6.5 million player option he can exercise with the Padres for 2024. However, the Padres might be more willing to cut costs where they can as news broke last week from The Athletic’s Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal, and Dennis Lin reported the Padres took out a $50 million loan to cover payroll in September. They could be looking to cut costs wherever they can, and Wacha’s contract would be an easy decision. While the team option complicates the clearness of his availability in free agency, Wacha was easily the second-best starter for the Padres this season behind Snell. He made 24 starts, had a 3.22 ERA in 134.1 innings pitched, a 1.16 WHIP, a .224 opponents batting average, 124 strikeouts, and 14 wins. For the more analytical heads, Wacha also found himself in the 94th percentile in pitching run value and the 98th percentile for off-speed pitches run value this year per Baseball Savant. Wacha is entering his age-32 season in 2024, making him one of the younger, better-available middle-rotation starters in this free-agency class. Given his age and performance in 2023, there’s a good possibility Wacha won’t exercise his player option if the Padres decline his team option. This winter could be his last opportunity to get a long-term, massive payday in his career and test the free agency waters for it. Per Baseball Reference, Wacha has never earned more money in a single season than he did this year at $7.5 million. After his 2023 performance, he is certainly closer in value to the $16 million a season that can be exercised in his team option with the Swinging Friars. Fortunately for the Twins, if Wacha enters this free agency market, offering him a couple extra million a season in the $18-$20 million range would not be detrimental to the spending budget, with it shrinking due to TV revenue losses. The price range is what Gray will receive in his qualifying offer. Still, he’s all but guaranteed to decline, as everyone and their mother knows he will receive a greater annual salary in almost every free agency offer. The significant upside with Wacha compared to Maeda is his younger age. Maeda will be 36 in 2024 and while he stabilized himself in the rotation and bullpen to end the season, the decline of age and recovery from Tommy John showed in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Astros. Wacha would undoubtedly be a safer gamble to pursue on that merit alone. Then there’s the workload that Wacha would be undertaking compared to other starters the Twins currently have. In theory, the Twins could make due with the five starters they have in the organization for Opening Day: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland. In an ideal world, this would be perfect, but as the game shows us again and again, depth is a necessity for a winning team. Wacha would be great in providing that depth if the Twins opt to have Varland in the bullpen or St. Paul or if any of the listed starters suffer injury setbacks. 2023 was the first time Wacha pitched over 130 innings in a season since 2017, when he threw 165.2 innings with the Cardinals and posted a 4.13 ERA. It’s unclear if Wacha will have a workload that heavy again, but the 134.1 innings this season puts him between Maeda’s 104.1 innings and Ober’s 144.1 innings in 2023. The amount of workload that Wacha can currently take on is a good balance to avoid rushing Varland back into the rotation, or call up the likes of David Festa from St. Paul too early in 2024. It will also be good to have him either in front of or behind Paddack in the rotation in case he still needs to rebuild his innings limits workload as he returns to the Twins rotation in 2024. If Wacha does end up being available, his price tag, workload capabilities on the mound, and 2023 performance make him the perfect candidate for the Twins to pursue if they are unable to resign Gray. In the unlikely case that the Padres exercise Wacha’s option, $32 million over 2-years is still worth pursuing via trade. Given the Twins' recent success in their trade history with the Friars, it would be an offer worth pursuing. View full article

If you’re looking for an obscure storyline to follow in 2023, pay attention to the seasons of four key impending free agents. Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports The rules governing MLB are nothing, if not labyrinthine. The draft rules are no different. Between qualifying offers, competitive balance picks, and the standard first-round pick, the Twins have the potential to fill their draft boards. MLB teams can offer their impending free agents a Qualifying Offer (QO) at the end of the season. If the player rejects it, teams can receive an additional draft pick. The rules are complicated, but if the Twins are still a revenue-sharing recipient and the player signs a contract north of $50 million, they will gain a draft pick between the first and second rounds. The pick would be between the second and third rounds if the player signs for less than $50 million. Have you got it? Super simple. The bottom line is that if the Twins give the QO to an impending free agent, and he rejects it, they essentially get an extra first-round pick. Do the Twins have any players who could receive the QO? Yes, several. To give a player the QO, the team has two criteria. First, the player must not have received a QO from their current team or any other team. Second, the player has to have spent the entire season on the team’s roster. The Twins have seven players projected to be eligible for the QO. However, the QO is a one-year deal equal to the average of MLB’s top 125 player salaries, likely around $20 million. Something has to go horribly right for three players—Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor, and Emilio Pagán—to sniff the QO. Depending on how they play, a solid case can be made for each of the other four to receive the QO. It’s something of a win-win for the team. If the player accepts the offer, the team pays them a hefty salary for only one year—no strings attached. The team gets a draft pick for their troubles if they reject it. So, who are these four players, and what are the odds they will receive a QO? Kenta Maeda Maeda is likely the longest shot in this camp, but it’s not unfeasible. It’s hard to predict how he will play this season, coming off of Tommy John surgery at almost 35, but if he pitches anywhere close to how he did in 2020, it’s reasonable. He would also be the most likely of the group to accept the offer. At his age, his chances of securing a multi-year deal are lower, so if he doesn’t think he could get a deal in free agency around $50 million over two years (Justin Verlander’s 2022 deal coming off of Tommy John, for reference), a $20 million payday would be good for him. It would also be an affordable veteran arm for the younger 2024 team. Sonny Gray 2023 will be Gray’s 11th year in the big leagues, but he signed an extension early in his career that kept him from testing free agency (and kept him underpaid). Now he’s 33 and an established #2 starter heading into free agency after the season. A comparable (albeit more durable) player who signed a deal in free agency this year is Chris Bassitt. Bassitt signed a three-year, $63 million contract with the QO attached to him. If Gray has another season like 2022, with better health and more innings, he could be in line for more than Bassitt got. The Twins would gladly bring him back for $20 million or get a draft pick. Tyler Mahle Mahle is the highest-upside pitcher in this group and, not coincidentally, the youngest. If his shoulder proves healthy and he keeps his home runs down in pitcher-friendly Target Field, he could put together a season solidifying himself as an upper-level number-2 starter. In 2022, similar starters in age and ability Eduardo Rodriquez and Marcus Stroman fetched contracts over $70 million guaranteed. Rodriguez had the QO attached, and Stroman accepted his QO the year prior. If Mahle and his representation saw $70 million as feasible, they would likely pursue free agency. Given his age, he may sign a contract for five-plus years, taking him into his mid-30s and even push $100 million. Again, the Twins would gladly accept either outcome from him. Joey Gallo Here’s the wildcard. Gallo is a two-time All-Star and Gold Glove winner. He also hit .160 last year. If he had been a free agent last offseason, he would have netted over $100 million on his next contract, even with his struggles down the stretch. Instead, he’s on a make-good, one-year deal with Minnesota. If he rediscovers his form, playing elite defense in the outfield, getting on base at a .335 clip, and hits 35 home runs, he will assuredly receive the QO and reject it. Even if he plays at 80% of that pace, there’s a case to be made. (Andrew Benintendi signed a five-year, $75 million deal this offseason). What are the odds that all four players play well enough to justify a QO? Probably low. The Twins current front office has only ever offered one player the QO—Jake Odorizzi in 2019—and he accepted it. I would be shocked, though, if none of them received it, and I think there’s a better chance for all four to get one than for none of them to get one. Combined with their standard first-rounder and a potential competitive balance pick, which they have been receiving lately due to market size and revenue, the Twins could have as many as six draft picks before the second round. I’m not saying it’s likely, but as JP from Angels in the Outfield would say, “It could happen.” I’m sure Twins scouting director Sean Johnson is licking his chops. View full article

The Twins are moving on to the ALDS to face the defending World Series champions. What decisions must the team make when finalizing its roster for the second round? Image courtesy of Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports The Wild Card series is a condensed three-game set that requires different roles on the 26-man roster. Teams need fewer starting pitchers, allowing the team to add other bullpen or bench options. Entering the ALDS, the Twins will get to reset their 26-man roster, and there are some decisions to make before Saturday. Will Byron Buxton Be Healthy Enough to Play? Buxton didn't make the Wild Card roster after dealing with multiple injuries during the 2023 season. He has been out since the beginning of August with a hamstring strain, and he dealt with knee issues during his rehab appearances with the St. Paul Saints. He made two rehab appearances at the end of the Saints' season and went 1-for-8. Buxton also didn't participate in the team's workout leading into the Wild Card Series. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli had to have an emotional conversation with Buxton about him not being on the Wild Card roster. He told reporters, "I probably could play, but it's all about contributing. I can go out there and do what I want to do, but it probably wouldn't be at the speed I want it to be. It's one of those where I don't want to hurt the team. I don't want to put a team in a bad spot with me coming back at 50-, 60-, 70-percent. There's guys in here that have done a great job of keeping us where we're at. It's just knowing your body, knowing who you are and putting yourself in a place to help the team." There will only be five days between the start of the Wild Card Series and the opening game of the ALDS. It's tough to imagine that Buxton has made significant improvements over the last week so that the Twins would consider putting him on the ALDS roster. There's a chance the team wants him to serve in a bench bat role, but they would likely need him to be able to play outfield too. Can he help the team? That remains doubtful at this point. Which Starter Fills the Fourth Rotation Spot? Minnesota only needed two starting pitchers for the Wild Card Series, but Joe Ryan was scheduled to start Game 3, if necessary. Since the ALDS begins on Saturday, Joe Ryan is the likely starter, but he has been home run prone this year, and Houston is a dangerous offensive team. The Twins may want to pitch one of their other starters in Houston and push Ryan back to Game 4 at Target Field. Pablo Lopez can start Game 2 on regular rest, putting Sonny Gray pitching in a pivotal Game 3 in front of the home crowd. Bailey Ober wasn't on the Wild Card Series roster, but he will likely be needed to start Game 4 if the ALDS series lasts that many games. Minnesota can also turn the fourth spot over to Kenta Maeda, who pitched well in the second half. It seems likely for the Twins to follow this rotational plan (*if necessary): Game 1: Ryan Game 2: Lopez Game 3: Gray Game 4*: Ober Game 5*: Lopez Which Wild Card Series Players Don't Make the ALDS Roster? Kody Funderburk was a surprise inclusion on the Wild Card roster, but the Twins thought an additional left-handed pitcher would be helpful. In 11 appearances, he posted a 0.75 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP and a 19-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His spot on the ALDS roster will likely need to be filled by Ober as the fourth starter. Minnesota could keep Funderburk and use Maeda as the fourth starter, but he shifted to the bullpen over the season's final games, and the team might want him to stay in that role. On the position player side, Andrew Stevenson is the only roster spot that might be up in the air. Stevenson offers a unique skill set as a pinch runner and defense replacement. If Buxton makes the roster, Stevenson likely needs to be the player removed from the bench. It seems most likely for the team to keep Stevenson, especially since Buxton's health is still questionable. Do you think Buxton makes the ALDS roster? How would you organize the team's rotation for the second round? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins are set to face off against the Houston Astros in the ALDS. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray likely get games 2 and 3, respectively, but it remains to be seen who gets games 1 and 4? View full video