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With free agency now officially open for business, the Minnesota Twins will work towards putting their offseason plans into motion. Derek Falvey leads the front office, and Thad Levine remains with the organization. What players are on their way out, and who may be retained? Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Each year, there is a significant amount of roster turnover at the major league level. Thankfully the Twins saw an significant influx of youth on the 2023 team, and that should be reflected in continuity. Carlos Correa has been signed long-term, and if he can remain on the field, then Byron Buxton’s veteran presence will also be felt. The Twins finished the season with eight unrestricted free agents heading out, and those players represent varying degrees of probability of return. Sonny Gray is really the only monumental name among the group, but more than a few of these players generated key contributions for Minnesota this last season. In no particular order, here’s who is hitting the market for Minnesota and the likelihood that they return for 2024. 1B/OF Joey Gallo - 0% Coming to Minnesota after unsuccessful stints in Los Angeles and New York, there was some hope that a smaller market may benefit the veteran slugger. He played a solid first base when Alex Kirilloff couldn’t go, and he factored in at multiple outfield positions for the Twins. At $11 million in 2023, he never came close to providing that value. He was hot out of the gate, then never found the same production level. Minnesota does need a big bat and help at first base in 2024, but these two parties are best to distance from one another. Gallo did finish with a 101 OPS+, so it wasn’t as though his year was catastrophic, but he shouldn’t land a deal for much more than half of that next season. SP Sonny Gray - 10% It’s not as though the Twins don’t need a starter of Gray’s caliber, and they two sides have familiarity. He has said the right things about liking Minnesota and being open to returning, but money talks. Gray will be 34 years old, and this is probably the last opportunity for him to land a multi-year deal. Minnesota will give Gray a qualifying offer, and they’d love to pay him $20.5 million for the 2024 season. They may even be open to paying that same amount for the 2025 season. Where it seems the Twins would draw the line is in spending a substantial amount on a 36-year-old in 2026, and one that has thrown more than 180 innings just once since 2015. Gray’s time with the Twins afforded him the opportunity for another big payday, and he should go and look for it. SP Tyler Mahle - 30% After acquiring Mahle from the Cincinnati Reds at the trade deadline in 2022, the Twins got minimal run from him before his elbow blew out in 2023. For pitchers in similar positions, like Michael Pineda and Chris Paddack, Minnesota has made deals that essentially pay for the rehab, in exchange for a chance to see the results. Something like that could work for Mahle, but neither side has indicated it being likely. The Twins may want to wash their hands from the move that sent Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the Reds. Also, Mahle isn’t going to factor into the Twins' plans for 2024, so bringing him back would be about how the 2025 rotation is viewed. There’s a possibility that Falvey sees this as an opportunity to get more while paying less, but there is plenty of uncertainty here. OF Michael A. Taylor - 60% It’s a given that Minnesota needs not only a backup plan for Buxton but, more logically, a starting option. Taylor filled that role for Baldelli wonderfully this year, but can you count on him to hit enough? His 94 OPS+ was the second-highest mark of his career, and although he posted a 90 OPS+ in 2022, it’s been considerably below that for years. Taylor will be 33 years old in 2024, and he will command more than the $4.5 million he made this season. There aren’t many great outfield options for Minnesota, and it seems unlikely they’ll spring for someone at the level of Cody Bellinger to replace him. Taylor is maybe the most likely free agent for the Twins to retain, but expecting a repeat of 2023 seems lofty at best. RP Emilio Pagán - 20% After drawing the ire of Minnesota’s fanbase during a poor 2022, Pagán showed the front office was right to believe in his peripherals with a strong 2023. He changed his pitch mix a bit and worked his way back to a high-leverage role. The Twins bullpen has some open spots for the year ahead, but they could look in a different direction. Pagán will find suitors this offseason, especially after his solid rebound. He has talked about the comfort here and the belief from the front office could lend him towards finding common ground in a deal. Relievers tend to swap teams often, though, and Pagán looking to pitch in a setup or closer role for another organization would be a logical step in 2024. UTIL Donovan Solano - 10% Signed as an afterthought right before the year started, Solano played an integral role for the Twins. At times, he was the only first base option, and he filled in all over the place. Despite being 35 years old, Solano rebounded from 2022 and posted a solid 110 OPS+. It wasn’t the inflated 127 OPS+ he had during 2020, but Solano has been a solid offensive contributor since 2019. Replacing Solano isn’t a straightforward task for the Twins, but bringing him back isn’t a safe fix either. He plays similar positions to some Twins prospects who will be close to a return, and players like Brooks Lee or Jose Miranda could replicate his production. Ultimately, the Twins need to find someone for Solano's role, but it doesn’t seem like they would just run it back. SP Kenta Maeda - 25% Maeda gets lost in the shuffle with Gray highlighting the departing class. He could be the most cost-effective to bring back, though, and he had a successful overall season. Although injury took away from his availability, Maeda posted a 3.36 ERA in his final 88 1/3 innings, which spanned 17 games. There was the blowup game against the New York Yankees in April, but almost every other outing was relatively successful. Maeda will be 36 years old next season, which means he could potentially be had on a one-year deal. The Twins have leaned more towards short-term deals with pitching free agents, and one like Maeda brings familiarity with what to expect. The durability concerns are real, but this is a much higher water mark that Minnesota has gravitated toward compared to previous free-agent arms. SP Dallas Keuchel - 0% Brought in to eat innings down the stretch, Keuchel did everything that was expected of him. The Twins didn’t think they were getting the Cy Young version, but they hoped to avoid the 2022 version as well. Keuchel proved he had something left in the tank by throwing some solid innings in St. Paul, and though plenty of the results were ERA-related, he worked his way back to the big leagues. Minnesota saw Keuchel strike out very few batters, and his 5.97 ERA didn’t lean at all toward the 4.56 FIP that was behind it. He did contribute 37 2/3 innings after August, though, and that kept the rest of the staff fresh for what was envisioned as a deeper postseason run. There won’t be a need for a veteran spot starter to open the season, but Keuchel should undoubtedly get a look from some team if he wants it in 2024, and more offseason work could push the effectiveness up a bit further as well. What free agents for Minnesota are you hoping to return? Is there someone you certainly don’t want to see back? Share your thoughts in the comments. View full article

The Minnesota Twins need a quality starter in centerfield. There is no way around it. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports They prefer a healthy Byron Buxton for most of a 162-game schedule, but a healthy Byron Buxton available for most of a 162-game schedule has yet to present itself. How can they recapture the magic of Michael A. Taylor in 2024? When the Minnesota Twins extended Byron Buxton, they knew what they were getting: An elite talent when on the field, but a growing unknown how often that would be each season. His 92 games played in 2022 was the second-highest total of his career, and he has reached the 100-game milestone once in his career. Therefore, having someone available to compensate for an extended absence in centerfield is a must. Over the years, Minnesota has tried to make a patchwork plan fit. Gilberto Celestino, Jake Cave, Nick Gordon, Rob Refsnyder, and others played substantial time at center, but none adequately played the part. If Buxton was reliable for 120 or more games, a quality backup may suffice in his absence. Realizing that hoping and wishing can't be the plan, Derek Falvey addressed the situation for the first time last winter. When they acquired Michael A. Taylor from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz, the Twins not only brought in a player to supplement Buxton but one that could conceivably start instead of him. Taylor has left plenty to be desired offensively throughout his career, but he's a Gold Glove talent in the field and has had stretches of decent production at the dish. Taylor proved to be worth every penny. He played in 129 games for Minnesota this year, and he would have been in Rocco Baldelli's lineup more if not for a late-season injury. Buxton never saw the field for the Twins, meaning it was Taylor's job to cover the centerfield grass nightly. Beyond that, his 94 OPS+ was the second-highest output of his career. He blasted a career-best 21 homers, and without another proper centerfield option on the roster, his presence was not only welcomed but necessary. A free agent this offseason, for the 33-year-old Taylor, replicating his 2023 is unlikely. He followed his career-best 104 OPS+ in 2017 with a 69 OPS+ the year after. He did have a 90 OPS+ in 2022 with the Royals but posted just a 74 OPS+ from 2018-2021. For the sake of continuity, Minnesota may opt to reunite with a known commodity, but it will likely come at a higher cost than the $4.5 million he made a year ago. If they want to replace him, getting it right is imperative. Similarly to someone like Donovan Solano, finding another option to fill a utility role in the starting lineup isn't an incredible proposition. Doing so with the right mix of cost and output in hopes of replicating the Taylor or Solano level of success is more complex. The Twins will have the free agent market to explore, and this front office has also shown an affinity towards trades. The answer probably isn't immediately within the organization. Spending on a player like Cody Bellinger isn't part of the Twins' plan. They could opt for Kevin Kiermaier, but he's the only real option in free agency outside of Taylor himself. Aaron Hicks isn't returning, and neither Kevin Pillar nor Harrison Bader can be regulars on a serious contender. It would be asking a lot of Austin Martin to step up immediately, and it doesn't appear the Twins are interested in moving Royce Lewis off of the dirt. For now, the plan for center is unknown. It would be great if Buxton responds well to his latest knee surgery and ultimately takes time away from whomever the front office brings in, but that can't and won't be the expectation. Falvey executed well in dealing for Taylor, and he found everything necessary in an alternative option. Replicating that success will be challenging, but Minnesota must get it right. With a position so important to any roster, especially this one, the Twins can leave no stone unturned. View full article

Here are some of the internal and external options the Twins could consider at first base for 2024 in the event that Alex Kirilloff's recovery from shoulder surgery extends into next season. Image courtesy of Bill Streicher, Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Alex Kirilloff is slated for labrum repair surgery in his right shoulder, and the Twins won't know a timeline until after the procedure takes place next week. Considering the nature of this type of significant surgery, there is a decent chance that his recovery will carry over into the 2024 season. At the very least, the Twins need to be thinking very seriously about what the short-term (and perhaps long-term) picture looks like at first base in AK's absence. Here are a few paths they could take this offseason to ensure the position is in good hands for next year. Re-sign Donovan Solano Perhaps the simplest answer. Signed for $2 million at the start of spring training, Solano proved to be a key fixture for the Twins. He led the team in starts at first base (64), and was a solid contributor with his .369 OBP and 110 OPS+. If the Twins wanted to run it back, they could probably do so on another inexpensive one-year deal. But, even if you're envisioning the solution at first base is somewhat of a stopgap, don't you want to aim higher? Solano turns 36 this offseason, has no power, and was not terribly impressive defensively. By almost any value-based metric he was a below-average player. He also left a bad taste in all our mouths by striking out three times in the elimination game against Houston. Donnie Barrels, your service is appreciated, but I think it's best for both sides to move on. Sign a different free agent first baseman Of course, there are plenty of other fish in the sea of free agency. But trust me when I say that this year's first base class is not very appealing. There's not really a star-caliber player in the bunch, unless you are targeting someone like Cody Bellinger or Jeimer Candelario as a first baseman. Rhys Hoskins is a slugger who'd look good in the middle of the Twins lineup, but he missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL suffered in the spring. Otherwise the pool consists of a bunch of older fading players who can hardly be trusted to be offer much more than Solano. Trade for a first baseman Trades are the more interesting avenue for outside additions, if you're looking for a real difference-maker at first base. Two names stand out as potential targets: Pete Alonso and Paul Goldschmidt. Alonso is an elite power hitter who fits with the offensive profile that Minnesota remains committed to. He's entering his last year ahead of arbitration and the woebegone Mets could seek to cash in rather than lose him for nothing. (Not to mention clear salary in pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.) Goldschmidt is coming off a relative down year, and entering his final season under contract at age 36. He's the kind of experienced veteran icon (and recent MVP) who would add another layer of respected leadership in the clubhouse. But he has a no-trade clause, and may prefer to stay in St. Louis even if their contention outlook is uncertain. An exciting big splash like Alonso or Goldschmidt would emphatically address first base for next year while keeping options open long-term. But either player would cost a ton to acquire. Is it worth it when you can turn to the following option? Solve for the problem internally Jose Miranda. Remember that guy? Okay, his own shoulder isn't looking like much of a sure thing either, but he remains a very relevant name on Minnesota's first base depth chart. And there are other players on hand who could aptly fill in at first base, at least on an interim basis. Edouard Julien got a couple of starts at first late in the 2023 season, and while the team seemed resistant to using him there much, they might feel differently if they can bring him along in spring training and let him own the position. This would of course open up second for Jorge Polanco, so it makes sense. Maybe Miranda or minor-league slugger Yunior Severino, who hit 35 home runs at AA/AAA this year, could plug in as a platoon bat alongside Julien. Another option: turn the keys over to Brooks Lee, who hasn't played first base yet as a pro but could almost certainly handle the assignment. This would open the door for Minnesota's top prospect to step in alongside the young nucleus. If the Twins (understandably) want Lee to get a little more seasoning in Triple-A, where he admittedly hasn't dominated yet, they can keep this idea in their back pocket. But the 22-year-old should be viewed as another depth piece in the first base equation. With all of these internal options being on the table, and with Kirilloff still being part of the plan at some point, I find it hard to believe the Twins will allocate major resources to a blockbuster addition at first base. If an opportunity materializes for someone like Alonso or Goldschmidt, the front office should definitely see it through. But they've got enough ready-made depth on hand that they should not feel overly pressured to add here, from my view. What do you think? What would be your plan at first base this offseason? View full article

Donovan Solano wasn't the first name most people thought of when looking for a platoon bat last offseason. But many of the names that did come to mind fared much, much worse than he did in 2023. It's going to be hard to find a replacement. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Donovan Solano is a 35-year-old utility infielder with 32 career home runs. He signed for $2 million last offseason to be an emergency option at second or third base and play first base or DH against lefthanded starters for the Twins. Donovan Solano also was third in plate appearances and fourth in OPS among Twins in 2023. Solano was an afterthought coming into 2023. Although he was the National League’s Silver Slugger in the shortened 2020 season, he was never a renowned hitter and was merely league-average at the dish in 2021 and 2022. Furthermore, he was no longer considered a good defensive second baseman, mostly playing first base and designated hitter in 2022. Going into the 2023 season, one of the Twins’ top needs was a competent right-handed bat, primarily to platoon and play some corner position. Between Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon in Minnesota, and Edouard Julien in St. Paul, the Twins had more than enough lefties and needed a bit of salt to their pepper. The December signing of lefty Joey Gallo was not that salt. However, by the beginning of spring training, there still was no platoon bat to be found on the roster. It may have ended up being Kyle Garlick by default had Solano not signed for $2 million to no fanfare. It bears repeating that Solano was a top-5 hitter for the Twins. He played first base more than anyone else on the roster—a bat-first position—and he was an above-average hitter, right around the average OPS for first basemen and designated hitters in 2023 (Solano’s OPS was .760—10% above league average—compared to .775 and .756 for first basemen and designated hitters, respectively). With Solano’s contract expiring and him being 36 by the beginning of next season, it seems unlikely he will be back with the Twins in 2024, filling a similar role. Hence, it stands to reason that his role would need a replacement—some sort of right-handed corner bat who can platoon against lefties and tread water against righties if needed. Corner positions are the easiest to find competent bats, so logic would suggest that it shouldn’t take too much work to find someone to fill Solano’s shoes. The Twins themselves found him during spring training and committed 1.3% of the 2023 payroll to him. In theory, these bit players are a dime a dozen. In practice, however, finding the right player requires a bit more work. Now, this role player could already be in the system, as someone like Chris Williams or Michael Helman could be options there. Jose Miranda could regain his footing and take hold of that role as well. However, if the Twins feel more comfortable finding a veteran for that role, they must choose wisely. Let me show you. At the beginning of the season, I selected 10 Solano-adjacent players to follow through the year. They were each free agents coming into 2023 and comparable to Solano in some way, mostly in role, handedness, and salary Among right-handed first base or designated hitter types, I chose Nelson Cruz ($1 million salary), Luke Voit ($2 million with a $12 million team option for 2024), Yuli Gurriel ($1.25 million), Jesus Aguilar ($3.2 million), and Andrew McCutchen ($5 million). I included Mike Moustakas ($740,000) based on name recognition. I also selected right-handed or switch-hitting outfielders Wil Myers ($7 million), Jurickson Profar ($7.75 million), and AJ Pollack ($7 million), as well as third baseman Evan Longoria ($4 million). Had the Twins brought any of those guys to camp, the reaction would probably have been at least at the minimal level that Solano’s was. 2023 went well for Solano. It went poorly for almost every other name on that list. Only McCutchen had an above-average OPS (113 OPS+, compared to Solano’s 110). Longoria was the only player beyond McCutchen to be rated as better than replacement level, per Baseball Reference (1.5 rWAR for McCutchen, 0.5 rWAR for Longoria, 1.8 rWAR for Solano). The other eight players registered negative WAR. Three players had a season OPS that started with a five: Voit (.548), Myers (.541), and Pollock (.524). Gurriel, signed to be Miami’s everyday first baseman, joined McCutchen and Longoria as the only player to remain on the team’s roster all year. However, he played only 108 games and registered 329 plate appearances, compared to Solano’s 134 and 450 plate appearances. The other seven players didn’t make it through the year with their new teams. Colorado traded away Moustakas to the Angels and Profar to the Padres at the deadline. Profar in particular was a curious case, as he left Colorado with -1.7 WAR then only played 14 games for the Padres, but hit quite well in that short opportunity. Pollock was traded for a player to be named later from Seattle to San Francisco, where he had six plate appearances before being released. Cruz and Myers were released by San Diego and Cincinnati, respectively, in the middle of the year. Neither found a place to play out the rest of the season. Aguilar was released by the (with all due respect) opossum shelter that is the Oakland A’s. The Braves signed him but never played a game above AAA. Voit takes the cake for the released crowd, as Milwaukee released him not once but twice. After the second release, he signed with the Mets but didn’t play a game. His $12 million option will not be getting picked up. It’s easy to look at the value that Solano gave the Twins and assume that another affordable corner bat can be picked up easily, but the recent past suggests that finding that savvy veteran bat is more complicated than we might think. View full article

The Minnesota Twins went into the 2023 Major League Baseball season with more depth than any time in recent memory. After a 2022 season in which the team fell apart due to injuries down the stretch, they looked to create internal answers. After that worked so well, does it now dictate that as standard procedure? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports A season ago, Rocco Baldelli constantly searched for warm bodies to take the field. Trying to stave off a comeback from the Cleveland Guardians, he needed pitching help and players to round out his lineup. Having depth is something that every organization strives for, but incorporating it at the highest level is something that the players bought into. Bailey Ober started at Triple-A this season despite arguably earning an Opening Day roster spot. Nick Gordon broke out in 2022 but broke his leg early in the season, but utility man Willi Castro stepped up and nearly matched Gordon's 2022 statistics. Injuries to Jorge Alcala and Jose Miranda could be withstood because of the options that Derek Falvey had put in place from the get-go. Looking to 2024, how sensible is it for the Twins to continue the same thought process moving forward? Under this front office regime, a baseline has often been established. Kyle Farmer was acquired before the Twins re-signed Carlos Correa. Sure, he could have been expanded upon, but he was also a talent capable of starting. That could also be said about Ober in the rotation, and plenty of other players over the years. With plenty of positions filled in on paper, you can bet that Falvey will be unwilling to call it good enough. Farmer and Castro are both arbitration-eligible this offseason, and their return helps to create depth in an infield that should already have Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis penned in next to Correa. Though the rotation could be rounded out with Louie Varland acting as the fifth starter, pushing him back with a Pablo Lopez-type addition would make plenty of sense. Minnesota has often shied away from spending on big arms in the bullpen. They don’t necessarily need them with Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax returning, but adding to a group should be done from the top down. Caleb Thielbar is arbitration-eligible and can be retained, and Brock Stewart doesn’t hit arbitration until the 2025 season. Expecting replications of all players isn’t straightforward, and relying on internal depth doesn’t seem to be something the Twins will try. When working with depth, you often deal with unpredictable outcomes. Donovan Solano and Castro had great years. Michael A. Taylor became the primary centerfielder. Those things are significant developments, but they can’t be the expectation year-over-year. Replicating the process of having capable bodies is a must, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the same names will provide answers. We saw internal depth keep players like Julien, Ober, or Matt Wallner down until Minnesota couldn’t help it anymore. Sometimes, that causes frustration for the fan base or player, but it also wound up being necessary over the entire season. That process bore results and should be assumed as part of fact going forward. Finding a collection of selfless players when dividing playing time is a significant part of the process. Falvey found a way to incorporate depth without those players operating as threats or hired arms on one-year deals. He’ll need to find a way to work with personalities and replicate the process again for 2024. It’s undoubtedly a good thing we have seen what that success looks like. Are you okay with additional depth pushing down initial opportunities for other players? How much do you think depth saved Minnesota this season? View full article

Injuries, unfortunately, are nothing new to the Twins. Depth became key in 2023, as the front office looked to insulate several positions with high-risk players. In 2024, first base should be added to that list. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Production-wise, 2023 was a successful season for Alex Kirilloff. The former top prospect bounced back from years of wrist issues that kept him off the field. His overall offense was 20% above the league-average hitter. While the wrist finally held up, a shoulder issue emerged, first sending him to the IL midseason, and then knocking him out of the ALDS. Unfortunately at this point, the Twins need to be careful with how much they expect to get out of the former first-round pick. 2023 was surely a major step forward for Kirilloff’s health, appearing in 108 games, his most since 2018. While this can be considered a positive, the fact that his season ended in injury yet again is difficult to ignore. He’ll spend his offseason rehabbing a surgically repaired shoulder, and his readiness for day one of the 2024 season isn’t guaranteed. We all love Kirilloff after having watched him ascend through the organization across so many years, but relying on him being durable and effective in 2024 is too much of a risk. First base is one of the easiest positions to find help. Offense is the number one factor, with gold glove-caliber defense rarely being a priority. In addition to there often being many available options that are pure first basemen, it’s also a position that former outfielders and other position players will transition to relatively often. Regardless of how the Twins see Kirilloff, first base will certainly be a spot to add to with Joey Gallo and Donovan Solano departing. The question becomes whether they add platoon/depth pieces, or if they pursue top-tier contributors. They could look to add someone like Garrett Cooper or CJ Cron on cheap deals to platoon. The risk of course is the possibility that Kirilloff continues to miss time and these players find themselves in a much bigger role than intended. Perhaps someone like Edouard Julien is trusted at first base more in 2024, making this route more viable. The Twins could also look to make an addition that immediately becomes a key offensive piece. If they were to sign someone like Rhys Hoskins to a deal, the Twins would be making a legitimate full-time addition to the lineup. Hoskins has a career .846 OPS and would add a hulking right-handed bat to a lineup that has needed more thump against left-handed pitchers for years. It may make Kirilloff’s path to everyday playing time a bit more narrow, but he was often platooned even when he was healthy and productive. The Twins can also utilize the DH spot to make it work. The Twins have found themselves in a familiar situation. First base may not be quite at the level of center field, where they have to plan for the backup potentially becoming a full time player, but there are significant question marks for Alex Kirilloff headed into 2024. As a team looking to compete for a second consecutive division title, and a young core that could carry them into October as they develop, the Twins can’t afford to downplay the uncertainty at a position that’s so easy to insulate. Should the Twins be wary of trusting Alex Kirilloff too much headed into 2024? Should they be looking to make a modest addition to first base, or a major splash to make sure the position is completely covered? Let us know below! View full article

The Minnesota Twins have been an organization that subscribes to the idea that data can be helpful since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over. That doesn’t mean they manage as slaves to analytics, but process is something that drives results for them. Platoon lineups have been a thing most of the year, but they’ve paid off in a big way down the stretch. Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports After facing two right-handed starters against the Toronto Blue Jays, Rocco Baldelli was able to go with his ideal lineup in the wild card round. Rookies Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner were routinely deployed, and youngster Alex Kirilloff was kept in the lineup. Facing a left-handed starter, those three have all been held out of the starting lineup, and in the American League Division Series it clicked in the best way possible. The Houston Astros employ only one left-handed pitcher on the roster they brought into the postseason. Despite lefty Bennett Sousa pitching in the bullpen late for them, starter Framber Valdez was the only southpaw that Dusty Baker was going to bring with to the tournament. After facing Justin Verlander in Game 1, that meant the Twins would have their opportunity to right the ship in Game 2. Going with righties where the lefties can pinch hit, Minnesota knew where they'd turn. Baldelli saw Verlander shut his lineup down against Bailey Ober. The Astros got big hits from Yordan Alvarez, and the Twins found themselves up against a wall. Although Jorge Polanco and Royce Lewis worked to bring Minnesota back, it was too little too late. Going up against a southpaw wasn’t ideal in Game 2 considering the struggles they have presented this year, but the manager stood firm in his process. With the three aforementioned lefties all starting on the bench, Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer, and Willi Castro were all in the starting lineup. Solano worked as the leadoff batter playing first base. Castro started in left field, and Farmer worked at the hot corner moving Polanco back to second base. Although Solano couldn’t get one during his first two at bats, Farmer stepped in with Castro on and blasted a dinger into the Crawford Boxes. Valdez has been an incredible performer in the postseason, but he struggled in the second half this year and was ripe for the picking. Handing the Twins a heavy dose of curveballs early, he left a bender in a bad spot to Farmer before being taken deep. Going curveball heavy against Minnesota wasn’t a shocking strategy, but it seemed clear that the Twins were keyed in on the pitch. Forget the fact that the Astros came into Game 2 with a lead, and that Minnesota was still on the road. Baldelli has stayed consistent with process throughout the entirety of the season, and it was that steadfast belief that paid off in a big way. Farmer’s big fly was the first hit of his postseason career, and it’s arguable that he’ll never hit a more impactful one. Multiple times during the course of this season, it has seemed Farmer represents a talent worthy of so much more than his impact in the box score. As a glue guy in the clubhouse, a veteran, and a leader, he has consistently provided more than expectations may present of him, and the youth around him is getting a master class in team unity because of it. Added as fringe players to the 26-man roster, both Castro and Solano had less than straightforward paths to playing time when leaving spring training in Fort Myers. Thanks to the production they have shown throughout the season, Baldelli’s lineup has been given flexibility that may have otherwise been unexpected. The production from Minnesota’s youth this year has been noteworthy, and the rookie class alone has been nothing short of incredible. That said, seeing positive performance from fringe guys, and putting those players in advantageous positions has helped to reduce pressure from the lineup as a whole. Baldelli used his bench with Kirilloff coming in late for Solano, and Julien pinch hitting for Farmer. The latter came through with a bases-loaded single that drove in a run and gave Minnesota breathing room. Despite the lefties beginning the game on the pine, they remained focused on the task, and the Canadian leadoff guy came through just like his manager drew it up. Minnesota has employed the platoon advantage all year long, and it paid off in the spot they needed it most. With Houston having no lefties to throw the rest of the series, Baldelli can choose whatever spots he wants for his hitters. View full article

It’s a question many fans have been asking. After two games, we might have an answer. On May 22, 2023, the San Francisco Giants did damage to Twins fans’ psyches. In the second inning of the game, Sean Manaea entered from the bullpen. Before then-promising rookie Edouard Julien had a chance to register a single plate appearance, he was lifted for Donovan Solano. Likewise, in the third inning, young, exciting first baseman Alex Kirilloff was lifted for platoon bat Kyle Garlick. By the end of the third inning, two fan-favorite hitters were removed with one plate appearance combined. Understandably, fans were upset. Baldelli’s penchant for pinch-hitting had gone too far. The Twins had to spend the rest of the game with platoon bats hitting, and Julien and Kirilloff were no longer available. We asked the question here. Would the Twins use the same aggressiveness? The Twins were one of the top-performing teams in the league using pinch hitters, and they were especially effective in the second half. But could Baldelli get played like a fiddle by a savvy manager? What if the other team brought in a lefty early? Would he again fall for it and burn his bench in the second inning? We’ve already gotten some indication as to how he’ll handle it. In the first game of the Wild Card round, Blue Jays manager John Schneider called lefty Tim Mayza in from the bullpen in the fifth inning, a man on first, and Max Kepler—a lefty—up to bat. Baldelli left Kepler, who has hit lefties well this year, in the game, and he hit a single. Baldelli opened the bench with runners on first and second and a lefty in Kirilloff batting, calling on pinch-hitting extraordinaire Donovan Solano. It was a big-ish spot in a 3-0 game, as a signature Solano barrel into the gap could score another run or two, and Kirilloff has struggled against lefties in his career. Solano flew out to right and remained in the game. Willi Castro came in for Matt Wallner as a defensive replacement after Wallner’s plate appearance in the seventh inning. Kyle Farmer also hit for Julien in the seventh inning, with Genesis Cabrera, a lefty, in for Toronto. Farmer was expected to enter the game for Julien late anyway to tighten up the infield defense, and the lefty coming in just made it a more obvious spot. Even the staunchest critics of Baldelli’s antics would allow these moves. But what if the Blue Jays pulled a Manaea on them? Let’s revisit that day and add some context. Everyone knew the Giants were planning to use an opener, John Brebbia, that day in May, but there was uncertainty as to who would follow him. Manaea, a career-long starter, was a suspect, as he had a disastrous start to his season and had come into three games to that point from the bullpen already. However, in full view of everyone, Manaea threw a bullpen at Target Field that afternoon. As such, the Twins had assumed he would not be an option in that night’s game, as pitchers don’t usually throw bullpen sessions before pitching multiple innings. The lineup was constructed based on the assumption that Manaea wouldn’t be an option. They were caught with their pants down. It didn’t help that the Twins were already down four runs in the second inning. All of these factors provide some justification for what transpired that day—but it still was a miscue. So, what if something similar happened in the playoffs? An astute manager might pull one over on Baldelli again and, hypothetically, bring in lefty starter Yusei Kikuchi in relief of righty starter Jose Berrios in the fourth inning of a tie ball game. Just such a thing happened. With one on and no one out, Kikuchi was brought in at the same spot in the order that Mayza was the day prior. Once again, Kepler remained in the game. Once again, he reached on a single against a lefty. Once again, with two on, Donovan Solano entered the game for Kirilloff. He walked, setting up a Carlos Correa single to drive in the first run of the game. After that, Wallner was lifted for Castro—a move that didn’t happen until the seventh inning the day prior—due to defense and not hitting. However, the team was in a position that necessitated a ball be put in play and another run score. Wallner has not hit lefties well and strikes out a lot. Castro did his job, though it resulted in a double-play. Still, the score was now 2-0 Minnesota. “Sure, the situation is a nice cover, Gregg! Baldelli would have pulled them in the fourth anyway!” you yell at your screen. I counter. In the fifth inning, the third prime candidate for being platooned came up to bat against Kikuchi. Julien was allowed to hit, and Farmer stayed on the bench. The difference? Probably that there was no one on base and one out when Julien had his turn. Farmer would later pinch-run for Julien in the seventh, after Julien had another crack at a righty—with a man on base. Maybe two games isn’t enough time to detect a pattern, but it looks like Baldelli has a strategy in mind. He won’t take the superior hitters out of the lineup early unless he has reason to believe it’s a critical moment—men on base in a tight game. You don’t know if you’ll get another chance, so gamble now, but don’t pull one of your best hitters just because you can. With Houston coming up, it’s doubtful we’ll see too many of these scenarios. They have one lefty starter—Framber Valdez—and a couple of lefty relievers who seem unlikely to make the ALDS roster. Once Valdez leaves his start, the lefties will come in to finish the game. If one of the lower-level lefty relievers does make the roster, I’m sure Baldelli and fans will have no issue with Donovan Solano hitting against him. There’s reason for even skeptical fans to believe that the bench will be handled competently, even if opposing managers dig into their bag of tricks. View full article

Jorge Polanco had a rough couple games at third base against the Blue Jays, should the Minnesota Twins turn elsewhere as they prepare for the Astros? Here's a look back at Polo's plays and some discussion on the alternate options. View full video

We move onto the important, but perhaps overlooked contributors to the AL Central-winning Twins. This one was purposely nebulous: is an unsung hero an underrated player? Was it someone who stepped up in another’s absence? We allowed our writers to interpret the term independently before sending in their answers. Here’s how the voting broke down: Honorable mentions (all of these players earned a vote): Caleb Thielbar Emilio Pagán Ryan Jeffers Carlos Correa Griffin Jax Kenta Maeda Royce Lewis Kyle Farmer Christian Vázquez Alex Kirilloff 5. Jorge Polanco It’s a little weird seeing a veteran rank so highly on this list, especially considering that Jorge Polanco—because of his 2014 cup of coffee—is the longest-tenured Twin. He played with Kendrys Morales and Josmil Pinto. Yohan Pino made 11 starts. Let’s just move on. I think timing is the key here: Polanco hit the IL halfway through May, came back for a week in June, and then returned at the very end of July. The team entered its “rookies dominating the lineup phase” right around this point, making it easy for Polanco’s contributions—which was a fifth full season with an above-average OPS—to be lost in the hype. There’s no glory in boring consistency, I guess. 4. Bailey Ober Bailey Ober wasn’t even a Twin to start the year. First considered a depth piece, Minnesota sent him to St. Paul to marinate, hoping that they would only need him in case of an emergency. He was up before April ended. Pitchers did as pitchers do, a little bit of badda, a little bing—ligaments tore and aches became extreme—and suddenly, Ober was back to being a Twin. It was only for a while, they said. After some time, it was clear the elongated righty was simply one of their finest starters, so he stayed with the Twins for most of the year, only going back to St. Paul for some rest at the beginning of September. It’s clear why he ranked so highly; it’s uncommon for a team to be able to reach in and extract a 3.43 ERA over 144 1/3 innings when in need. Who knows what kind of eccentric pitching experiments we would see if Ober wasn’t there to stabilize the rotation. 3. Donovan Solano “Donovan Solano???” Thought every Twins fan when news of his signing broke late in February. Perhaps you remembered his 2020 silver slugger with the Giants—and maybe the more sick amongst us even recall his time as a Marlin—but none expected the 35-year-old to be the line drive, on-base machine he was in 2023. Solano hit righties and lefties; he hit at home and when playing on the road; he hit in April, May, June, July, August; he hit in low leverage, and he hit in high leverage. He wasn’t one for slugging—the indulgence of extra-base brutishness—but, no matter the situation, Solano hit. Remarkable consistency seemed to follow Solano, whether he manned 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, making him our 3rd place Unsung Hero. 2. Michael A. Taylor When the Twins dealt for Michael A. Taylor over the offseason, I wrote an article titled Twins Make Boring, Necessary Trade for Michael A. Taylor, likening acquiring the veteran to the team eating their veggies. Snarkiness lost out today; Taylor was even more than expected. Taylor has over seven years of MLB service time, and he technically broke out in 2017 with an .806 OPS as a National, making him an atypical selection for this award. He would at least provide competence when Byron Buxton had to rest, we all thought; with visions of Jake Cave and his optimistic dives running across our minds. What we didn’t envision was Buxton never stepping foot into Target Field’s outfield, necessitating 129 games for Taylor in an effort to curb any center field leakage. He was tremendous. Putting up the 2nd highest OPS+ of his career, Taylor bashed a career-high 21 homers, pairing his typically excellent defense with a power prowess unusually potent for a 9th-hole centerfielder. Minnesota likely would have struggled without Taylor—he’ll take home our 2nd place honors today. 1. Willi Castro You’d be forgiven if you thought Willi Castro simply apparated onto the roster in spring training. He had some oxidized prospect luster from his time in Detroit as a man on their top-10 list in 2019 and 2020, but he couldn’t hit much with the Tigers, and the team cut bait following an uneventful 2022. And the Twins are ecstatic that they did. Castro made the opening day roster as an afterthought—the kind of player who sticks around for a little, is thanked for their services, and then subsequently Ryan LaMarres his way out of usefulness around the time someone else gets healthy. This kind of player is a baseball tradition. But, unlike those of years past, Castro hit, played quality defense at nearly every position on the diamond, and utilized his legs to steal bases at a rate unique amongst Twins of the modern era. He was suddenly valuable; he’s now a critical weapon for Rocco Baldelli to use in the postseason. The zenith of Castro’s powers had to be his game on September 20th, when he halted Hunter Greene’s dominance with a two-run homer, before kickstarting a 9th inning rally with a bunt hit and madman baserunning that sent him to 3rd. He scored the tying run on a Kyle Farmer single. At just 26, Castro looks like a quality contributor for years to come, and—for his efforts in 2023—Twins Daily has named him their Unsung Hero. View full article

With the Minnesota Twins set to play baseball in October, they’ll have the privilege of shuffling the 26-man roster with a focus on a three-game home series. That construction is different from the regular season, and how the bench spots are utilized could be of the utmost importance. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Twins Daily With the wild card round being just a three-game series, there is no reason for starters that won’t pitch in relief to be on the roster. That could certainly include the likes of Kenta Maeda or Bailey Ober, but takes Dallas Keuchel out of the equation. Needing a few fewer players, Rocco Baldelli should have something like 15 position players on his roster. The bench will be deeper than it has been all season, and that provides ample opportunity to pinch hit, make defensive changes, or insert a pinch runner. Here’s a look at the names that could be included: Kyle Farmer If there’s an infielder that seems certain to start on the bench, it’s Farmer. He’s not the priority anywhere on the dirt, and really the only path he has to a start is if Carlos Correa can’t go because of his heel issue. Farmer was brought in to be the Twins shortstop before they were able to bring Correa back into the fold. As a right-handed hitter, he hasn’t shown well against lefties. That’s basically been where he has made a living thus far as a hitter, but his slugging percentage is lower there than against left-handed pitchers. Baldelli could do a lot worse in pinch-hitting or replacement spots, but Farmer isn’t going to start on the dirt. Donovan Solano Depending on the opposing starter, Solano could find himself in the starting lineup. He makes some sense at designated hitter, and he has played plenty at both first and second base. The chalk moves would involve Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, and Jorge Polanco, but Minnesota will respond to the opposition. Signed as somewhat of a last addition to the roster, Solano has been nothing short of exceptional for the Twins in his role. He bounced back from somewhat of a down year with the Reds last year, and currently owns a 112 OPS+. He has hit for average, and he has gotten on base. Both of those things aren’t consistent throughout the Minnesota lineup. No matter how he gets into a game, Solano being an additional option for the Twins in the playoffs is a huge boost. Willi Castro Similar to Solano, Castro was an afterthought pickup and has elevated himself to being one of the most integral contributors on the team. Signed to a minor league deal back in December, Castro has seen time both in the infield and outfield. There’s a chance he could start in center for Minnesota, but that probably means Michael A. Taylor experienced a setback. This season it has been Castro leading the Twins on the base paths. He has stolen a career-best 31 bases, and he has had significant success picking his spots to go. With an ability to advance 90-feet, even if Castro isn’t in a starting lineup, he can impact a game for Baldelli. Castro also brings handedness flexibility to the bench in that he’s a switch hitter. Baldelli has turned to him in key pitching scenarios, and also used him as a defensive replacement. Andrew Stevenson Promoted from Triple-A St. Paul following one of his best years in professional baseball, Stevenson largely got an opportunity with the Twins because he can run. Stevenson has won a World Series playing with the Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Juan Soto Washington Nationals, but the veteran still brings plenty to the table as a fringe talent. An adept defender in all three outfield spots, Stevenson would be an ideal late-game replacement for someone like Matt Wallner or Castro. He isn’t someone that you want at the plate, but with 48 steals on 54 attempts in pro ball this year, he’s almost a guaranteed bet to swipe a bag. Probably the least likely name here to be included on the postseason roster, Stevenson’s opportunity revolves solely around defense and running. Christian Vazquez For most of the season Minnesota has gone with a near 50/50 split behind the plate with their catchers. Vazquez was brought in as the trusted veteran, but Ryan Jeffers has had a breakout performance and pushed for more playing time. In the playoffs, Vazquez’s pedigree and previous experience could be a big boost. The former Red Sox and Astros backstop has a pair of World Series rings to his credit, and while he’s not much of a hitter, he’s always been well respected as a defender. Vazquez has played 31 games in the playoffs and has a pair of home runs to his credit as well. In a short series, both Vazquez and Jeffers should be expected to catch a game apiece. Byron Buxton There's almost no scenario in which Buxton starts a game in the outfield for Minnesota. He was limited to just seven innings in center field when trying to rehab with the Saints, and despite playing in a simulated game at Target Field on Wednesday, his availability is still a massive question mark. He won't be given the designated hitter spot after scuffling at the plate, and Royce Lewis may need the role given his hamstring injury that sidelined him for the final week of the season. Should the Twins feel confident that Buxton can bring something to the postseason roster, his inclusion will likely be in the form of a right-handed pinch hitter. That would be a substantial bat off the bench against either a righty or lefty, but only because we have seen what he is capable of. The production hasn't been there for quite some time this season, and coming back off such a lengthy stint on the injured list makes his expectations worthy of being tempered at best. Other options to come off the Twins bench would include Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Joey Gallo. Minor leaguers such as Austin Martin and Brooks Lee aren't going to be called upon at this point. None of them seem entirely likely though, and giving Baldelli this group to work with should be plenty. How do you feel the Twins bench stacks up to the competition? Is there someone you’d like to see added that isn’t here? View full article

Pinch-hitting was a disaster for the Twins at the beginning of the year. However, they're still one of the best teams in the league at it. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports If you ask a Twins fan, “What does Rocco Baldelli love more than anything else?” you’ll probably hear some form of “make substitutions” as a response. Depending on the fan, that response could have any level of emotion to it. Love it or hate it, Rocco loves himself some substitutions. His strategy of trying to win right now—with less concern about what will happen later in the game—has led to the Twins pinch-hitting the third most times in the league in 2023 (and the tenth most pinch-running). He especially likes platoon swaps in-game, sometimes rolling out total line changes when the opponent brings in a left-handed reliever with as many as four pinch hitters. The rationale is straightforward. Left-handed hitters struggle against left-handed pitchers. The lefty greats are usable against same-handed pitchers, but none can do nearly the same amount of damage that they can against righties. Even an average righty hitter could be the better choice in that case. Those average righties can start against left-handed pitchers, too. After the opposing lefty leaves, a manager can bring in all of the left-handed hitters and maintain a strong lineup. Baldelli has undoubtedly bought into that idea. As early as Opening Day, the play was on. In the sixth inning, Kyle Farmer hit for Nick Gordon against lefty Amir Garrett and walked. Donovan Solano then hit for Joey Gallo and singled, driving in Trevor Larnach for the season’s first run. They finished the last four innings at second and first base, respectively. The strategy was off to a good start. After Opening Day, though: yeesh. In a June 30th mailbag, Athletic writer Aaron Gleeman reported that although the Twins had used the second-most pinch hitters in MLB to that point in the season (91 in 82 games), they ranked 26th in OPS at a paltry .496. That’s a pretty abysmal performance. For reference, Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien—players who have essentially been banned from hitting against lefties this season—have a .470 and .452 OPS against left-handed pitchers, respectively. They were only marginally worse than all pinch hitters to that point in the season. Against lefties specifically, Minnesota had the 28th-highest OPS from pinch hitters: .490. At that point, fans and team personnel had to question whether the lineup jumbling and complicated role structure on the team was worth the effort. Why not just let the young lefties play the whole game? Did they need to go through all this effort just to get a different version of a bad result? Fast-forward to mid-September. It’s been two and a half months since that low point. The Twins currently have a .723 OPS from their pinch hitters on the season, just a hair under the MLB average for all hitters. That’s good for eighth in the league. Somehow, after all that struggle and consternation, the Twins have cracked the top ten. From the beginning of July through September 15th, Twins pinch hitters had 80 plate appearances (third in MLB) with a .997 OPS (second in MLB) and a 170 wRC+ (best in MLB). Their pinch hitters have been on an absolute tear. That includes a .785 OPS (sixth in MLB) against lefties from their pinch hitters. Now, 80 plate appearances is little to go off. It’s a month’s worth of plate appearances for a full-time player. However, it does provide hope that the big-bench, pinch-hitting approach can work in the playoffs. 11 different players had pinch-hit since the beginning of July, and only Solano, Matt Wallner, and Christian Vazquez had an OPS below .750 during that time. Admittedly, fans can count on one hand the number of times many of the names at the top of the list have pinch-hit—two for Jorge Polanco, three for Ryan Jeffers, and so on. However, other than Donovan Solano (11 plate appearances), who has otherwise been the paragon of consistency on this team, the guys the Twins will look to as pinch hitters have performed well. Jordan Luplow (11 PA) and Kyle Farmer (10 PA) will be looked to mid-game against lefties, and they have a 1.260 and .800 OPS, respectively, as pinch hitters. Edouard Julien (11 PA) would be considered a substitution if he sits against a lefty starter, and he’s had a .909 OPS as a pinch hitter since the beginning of July. Of course, these are small samples, and dividing it amongst individual hitters isn’t an entirely meaningful analytical exercise. However, the practice of pinch-hitting has helped the team throughout the year, especially in the second half. There is reason to feel trepidation about Baldelli opening up his bench during playoff games. An early move that doesn’t work out can kneecap a team later in the game. There is a general pinch-hitter penalty for batters, as coming in cold off the bench isn’t an ideal way to prepare for a plate appearance. However, it’s been working lately. Some have suggested that players have adapted to the unorthodox style, and there’s something to be said for a learning curve. No one truly has a day off on these Twins teams. If it’s a system that a player is unfamiliar with, it might take a while to adjust. In this small sample, they have adjusted. Or it’s just noise. I won’t sit here and declare it fixed or a brilliant strategy. It’s just worth remembering that the practice hasn’t been as comically bad as it initially seemed. In the Wild Card, there might be a total of five such pinch hits. Who knows if it will actually work, but recent performance has me hopeful that it will. View full article