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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Maybe Margot or Farmer will get the "Sore Back" stint on the IL if everyone else is still healthy when Lewis comes back? (old NBA roster manipulation trick) Margot makes sense to DFA because he's not hitting and his defense has been worse than advertised by a fair bit, but it would leave us a little bit thin at OF on the active roster. Farmer makes sense to DFA because his role is diminished, he's not hitting, he's at the age where he's less likely to recover, and it would be an INF for INF swap. But Miranda is showing the bat that got him up here in the first place and having him as another RH bat on the roster makes sense. Santana has recovered enough from his horrid start (and is hitting LHP better than either Margot or Farmer) that dropping him isn't as appealing as it was in mid-April when he looked washed. Santana is taking good ABs again, drawing walks, etc. but Miranda deserves to stay. He's earned it, he's healthy again, and while he's been better against LHP, he's still been quality against RHP; his splits are way smaller than someone like Margot.
  2. jmlease1
    Little off-base, I'm afraid. He's still running a BB/9 of 4.5 (which is not good) and is actually slightly above his career average of 4.3. I mean, he's been a bit better than he was in Wichita last season...but worse than in Cedar Rapids last year, so it's something of a wash. I'd argue he's still got the same issues on his control, but he's been effective at run prevention despite it. That WHIP is just not sustainable. Hope Matthews is ok. Any roster move like that makes me twitchy, especially with our pitchers, lol. keaschall seems to be doing fine in AA so far. How much longer will Brooks Lee stay in Ft. Myers, I wonder? Until they have him in the field a few more times?
  3. jmlease1
    I'm not a huge fan of fWAR for pitchers because it doesn't reflect as well what actually occurred in the game as well as bWAR does. (It can be a better predictor of future results, but in terms of what actually happened, maybe not) If all you're looking at is pure performance than sure you might take Berrios over SWR, but cost has to be part of the equation here. SWR is a minimum salary guy and Berrios is clocking $18M per. Pablo has been better than Berrios the last 2 seasons; so far Berrios has been better this year. The biggest advantage Berrios has over Lopez is better health. Berrios is at least as close Ryan as he is to Lopez, but the comps are always going to be troublesome because Lopez is 2 years younger than Berrios as is Ryan (who also didn't get a chance to pitch in MLB until he was 25) A big part of why Berrios was dealt and SWR was acquired was due to salary and contracts and ignoring that is a little silly.
  4. jmlease1
    Was it leadership they missed in 1992 or the fact that Pagliarulo didn't even play 50 games, Hrbek missed 50 games, and the pitching staff needed a better 4th starter than Bill Krueger? Keeping in mind that they still won 90 games, but there was no wild card and only 2 divisions back then. I don't think the issue was "no Dan Gladden or Al Newman in the clubhouse".
  5. jmlease1
    I really don't think "leadership" is why we made the veteran signings we did; it's a value-added piece, sort of like a bonus, and part of the Twins trending towards a "no a$$holes" approach after the Josh Donaldson Experience. Vazquez was signed to be a quality defensive catcher that they thought would be ok at the plate. (they've been half right?) Santana was signed to be a quality defender at 1B who could hit LHP and be decent against RHP (they've been 1/3 right). Farmer was acquired to be the SS before Correa came on board, and was shifted to be the backup SS and more of a utility role to hit LHP and provide quality defense at multiple positions (worked great last season, not so much on the hitting side this year). All were expected to be good in the clubhouse...and I think they have been. Margot was brought in to be a 4th OF who could handle CF and hit LHP. (he's hit LHP a little, but overall this one is 0-3) I don't think he was brought in for "leadership". but who are the 9-10 guys that are here as "leadership" players rather than for what they could do on the field? Pablo Lopez was brought in to be a front-line starter. That he's a leader of the pitching staff is value-added, not a primary reason. Correa was brought in to be a great SS who could both hit and defend, something we haven't gotten here in a gazillion years. His leadership is again, a bonus and a reason why they were comfortable with such a long deal...but his production is why they wanted him. None of the relievers they've brought in were for "leadership", but because they thought they could fill a role. Paddack was acquired to be a rotation guy, not a "leader". The biggest issue with this may be the fact that when a veteran isn't performing well the Twins struggle (like most teams, really) with when to move on. Part of this is sunk-cost fallacy, part of this is knowing that how a team treats its veterans can matter when free agency rolls around, part of it is asset control (most veterans are gone if they get designated for assignment), and part of it is budget limitations to fill the vacancy. Vazquez is a tough nut because of the contract. Twins aren't going to want to just eat the salary, and he is still quality defensively which matters more at catcher than almost anywhere (especially since so many catcher stink at the plate these days). I think it's going to be nigh-impossible to move him now without giving up a prospect we don't want to lose or eating most of that salary. He really has been awful at the plate, like historically bad. He'd need several weeks like his last one in order for anyone to even want him right now...and if he has several weeks like this then the Twins are going to talk themselves into him being ok. This really is where having a big payroll helps: you can buy out your mistakes. And Vazquez has been a mistake, even if he's helped the pitching staff more than is currently measured.
  6. jmlease1
    Zebby Matthews walked a guy! Incroyable! he's doing just fine in AA, even if he took the loss. Nice to see Keaschall have a good debut. One game doesn't really mean anything, but it's still probably nice for him to get that first AA hit out of the way, He's having an excellent season and AA should be a good challenge for him. Winokur is having a good week, and it's nice to see a little more pop in his bat. He hasn't exactly fallen apart, but a lot of 1-4 days where he's only getting a single were dragging him down. Would like to see him driving the ball more consistently and showing a bit better control of the strike zone. But he's still very young, so this is all part of the learning curve I think. Martin is having no trouble with AAA this year. but it's good to see him doing well after getting sent down. Right now he's showing the best side of himself at the plate: really hard to get out, doing some damage when he deigns to swing, never afraid to lean in and get hit to get on base, and even threw in a couple of steals. I wasn't surprised to see him struggle a bit in his first opportunity at MLB, but I still think he can be a quality player. Good to see him playing mostly LF-CF for Saint Paul; I think with some more reps out there he can be a solid defender in CF and plus in LF with his range, even if he doesn't have the strongest arm.
  7. jmlease1
    I think we will see that from Alcala if they don't ask him to go 2 innings any longer; most of his issues this season have been in the second inning when he's been asked to go two. (like the implosion vs Seattle). Hasn't given up a run in the first inning of any stint. He looks healthy and strong and ready to pitch higher leverage situations. Once Stewart gets back, the back end of our bullpen is a scary proposition from the RH side with Duran (even with his recent wobbles), Jax, Stewart, and Alcala. YMMV on Thielbar & Okert, but they've both been death to LH hitters. the trickiest bit might be those middle innings if the starter doesn't go more than 5...
  8. jmlease1
    A nice win. Bobby Witt Jr sure is a heck of a player. He took a big leap forward last season and looks like he's taken another one this season. KC finally has the star they need and their starting pitching has been pretty great (and is Sal Perez ever going to get old?). Did not expect them to be this good, but they have been. Is it sustainable? we'll see. SWR keeps doing the job: give your team a chance to win. I'd like to see him get a little deeper, take a little pressure off the bullpen, but he's keeping the team in the game and I'm not sure how much more you can ask from a 5th starter. Great Buxton game last night. hits, walks, defense, and speed. That triple is everything I love about Buck.
  9. jmlease1
    Good week for a lot of prospects! Always nice to see. I'm very excited about the Wichita rotation right now; lot of talent there and interesting prospects, and if they can thrive in the Texas league it might be a good sign. Thrilled to have Lee and Jenkins back to work. While there wasn't anything to suggest their injuries were ruinous, it was just such a bummer to see a top Twins prospect not playing. We've had some rough luck with that over the years. Expecting Lee back in Saint Paul soon, and looking forward to seeing him go. Nothing wrong with putting a little pressure on Julien. Jenkins should be heading back across the parking lot to resume destruction of the FSL, and I still think he could move up to Cedar rapids this season even after missing a big chunk of time with the hammy. Hope Emma gets bumped to Saint Paul sooner rather than later; there really seems to be little left for him to prove in AA, which is kind of awesome, considering he's only 21 and has only 36 games under his belt there. but he's dominating, just crushing it. I say send Ohl along with him, get him some AAA time in case there's a flood of injuries in the rotation (knock on wood).
  10. jmlease1
    Joe Ryan was terrific. 7 innings, only 4 hits, no walks, and kept it in the park. Really good to see him finishing off hitters effectively. In his last 4 starts he's put up his highest 3 Game Scores of the season. He's really throwing well right now, and having an excellent season. He's gotten into the 6th in every single start this season, only had one start all year where he's yielded more than 1 free pass too. He's really fun to watch. I hope he can sustain this kind of run; he's been worse in the second half of the season so far in his career. But that also includes last year's muck up where he tried to pitch through an injury, and I suspect he's learned not to try and hide something like that again. Nice to see Larnach slam one out; he'd been scuffling after a hit start, so it'll be interesting to see if this gets him back on track. Miranda's bomb was a no-doubter too and he's definitely making the case to stick around after Royce returns.
  11. jmlease1
    Excellent outing from Ohl. He's gone at least 5 innings in every start this season, which you have to like. Really the thing to watch with him is the big flies; if he's keeping the ball in the park, he's rolling. When he gets tagged for a couple of dingers his day isn't so good. (given up 2 runs or less in every game where he hasn't given up a HR) He's having a fine season and looks ready for a promotion to Saint Paul. Rodriguez is just a monster. the batting average is going up, the on-base percentage is absurd, he's pounding the ball...he sure looks ready for AAA too. Hard to believe he's only 21, but no complaints. This is a learning season for Soto. He's so young, and is going to have bumps along the way. It's his first professional season after all, and they thought enough of him to put him in A ball out the gate rather than rookie ball at the complex. Always thought it was going to take a while for him, but there's still loads of talent there. Refinement may take some time.
  12. jmlease1
    I don't think the Twins are ignoring K-rate, they just don't see it as disqualifying. At the end of the day, a strike out is just another out. (yes, runners can't generally advance on a K, but at the same time, you don't get double plays either) If a hitter is doing everything else right (drawing walks, hitting the ball hard, etc) then you can handle a significant K-rate. Right now, that's the question with ER: is he making enough contact on pitches in the zone, can he do it consistently as he goes up levels, can he keep himself from expanding the strike zone as pitchers get better and he sees fewer uncompetitive pitches and more deception. Right now, he's answering the call. Yes, there are still a lot of Ks, but he's also punishing the ball consistently and drawing tons of walks. Part of his evolution as a hitter is also going to be that selective aggression where you go after more pitches early in counts so you're not sitting 0-2, 1-2 as often. But I'm quite certain the Twins staff is working on him with all of that. The fact that he's hitting so effectively at AA at age 21 is a very good sign.
  13. jmlease1
    Excellent outing from Festa. He still needs to show consistency from start to start; he's still been a bit up and down. He's been following those starts where he looks impossible to hit with outings where he's been pretty hittable. That's the next step in his evolution, I think: finding the consistency from start to start. But he's definitely putting himself in position to get a shot at MLB this season. We've been a little lucky that we haven't needed to dip too far into our rotation depth this season (good job by SWR in holding things down) and Festa has had time to ramp up and get more development time. He's getting closer every start. Lee and Jenkins should be ready to jump back to their regular clubs soon, but I can understand why they're doing the rehab assignments in the complex league. But I'm looking forward to getting them back where they belong soon; neither is going to be tested in rookie ball. Fun list of pitchers starting on sunday for the Twins: Varland, Ohl, and Soto all going? Love it.
  14. jmlease1
    I think Rodriguez should be strongly considered for a mid-season promotion to AAA, especially if he keeps hitting like this. Goodness, he's been better in AA than he was in high A. Sure, the Texas League is a hitter's environment, but he's 21 and crushing it. He still strikes out a lot, but when you're drawing almost as many walks as Ks, hitting .280 and have an OPS of 1.054...are we really that worried about the K's?
  15. jmlease1
    I hope that they continue to give him more; at a certain point he has to show he can throw 80+ pitches and be effective if he's going to stay as a starter. He did great in this outing, and that's good. But he's so hard to evaluate when he's still only throwing 50-60 pitches and 3-4 innings. Love seeing Jenkins, Lee, and Cory Lewis all on the stat sheet. Love seeing the injured guys getting back into it. Lewis is probably going to need several starts to get going and get ramped up, but just seeing him throwing again is good news.
  16. jmlease1
    Love seeing the Twins working counts and drawing walks like this. Texas is lucky we didn't blow this one out. Good things will continue to come if we keep piling on the baserunners. Good that Paddack was able to grind through 5; hopefully the velocity bounces back, but you have to expect days like this for a guy coming off a substantial injury. The fact that he was able to get through without his best stuff and keep us in the game is good news, I think. The blast from Kirilloff sure helped. Hopefully he gets on a bit of a run and the hits pile up for him. I still believe in his talent; when he's going well it's as sweet a swing as you'll see and he can hammer hits all over the park. Keep it rolling!
  17. jmlease1
    A good win, but I wanted to chuck the plate umpire into the Mississippi with the sequence in the bottom 3rd into the top of the 4th, because it's the kind of inconsistency that drives me absolutely batty (and clearly our hitters too). Ump expanded the zone putting our hitters in a hole with pitches that did not look like strikes and hadn't been called as strikes earlier in the game (especially on the inside part of the plate to LH hitters); down 0-2 they were in a real problem against the low changeup as they're trying to cover the whole (and what they saw as very wide) plate. Top 4, Ober is throwing pitches in the same spots...and not getting the same calls. It didn't end up mattering, but it's so aggravating. Morneau doesn't go after umpires that much, but he was on it. Glad to see Kirilloff pound a homer. He's been scrabbling for a month and needed this. Hopefully he can get back to smashing line drives. 10 hits and 5 walks is usually going to score more than 3 runs, and the approach at the plate was good by the offense. Excellent work by the bullpen to nail down the win. Okert having a weird season; he's pitched pretty well overall and has a solid ERA+...but has also managed to blow 5 saves already. He's been death against LH, but he needs to limit the damage against RH better or he going to be restricted in what he can do for us. Good work in this game, though.
  18. jmlease1
    because RBIs are a relevant stat. (not that it really matters, but your pace is way off unless you're assuming Correa misses significant time again the rest of the season) You've said yourself that he's one of the best defenders we've had since Gagne (who last played for the Twins in 1992); the only other one in this range was Simmons, who couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. He's the best hitter we've at at SS in franchise history (Smalley is the only other real contender). I would argue that any downgrade in his defense is based on the rules change that forces the infielders to position themselves on the dirt. He's been penalized by the league, but hasn't actually gotten any worse. It's too bad, because his arm is awesome at SS and he could make plays on guys who were sure that they were going to beat out the grounder, and they took some of that away to...get more soft singles and give an advantage to fast infielders who can't throw? Banning the shift was fine, expanding the bases and limiting pickoffs to invigorate the running game worked, but telling infielders with great arms they can't play back is dumb.
  19. jmlease1
    I think they'll be making more of the promotion decisions in June; while I wouldn't mind advancing the calendar a bit I'm not going to get super upset if they stay on a June timeline. Culpepper and Nowlin were both very good, and they're intriguing prospects. It'd be nice to have a LH starter in the mix, but Nowlin still has things to work on. I think either him or Ohl would make sense to move to AAA, which opens space for Culpepper in Wichita (and Cory Lewis on his return). I like the wave that's coming through in AA with the pitchers, going to be interesting to see how that winnows out. You have to assume that not all of them are going to keep doing this well, but it sure would be an awesome problem to have. Walker Jenkins is too good to play in rookie ball...which is awesome. Hammy looks fine, hopefully it doesn't give him any more trouble. No objections to the Twins being cautious in working him back, though: he's a special player. get him right, and let him wreak havoc upon his enemies! Lee will bear watching. Back injuries can be tricky and everything can be going great and then it flares again. Hopefully he's feeling good, feeling strong and can put it past him. I'm looking forward to having him in Saint Paul ASAP.
  20. jmlease1
    Assumes facts not in evidence. Emma has neutral splits so far in his professional career and demonstrated that he has the ability to hit LHP even as a LH batter. The Twins sit LH in MLB that have shown they are less effective against LHP. I'd say it's pretty likely they'll give E-Rod a shot to hit lefties consistently until he shows he can't. I really don't understand why people oppose platooning when a hitter is clearly worse against same-sided pitching. Did we learn nothing from watching Jacque Jones struggle mightily against LHP?
  21. jmlease1
    is this satire? Correa has an OPS+ of 133 as of 5/24. That's outstanding, especially at SS. From 1999-2023 guess how many times the Twins primary SS had an OPS+ of 130 or better? Once, by Carlos Correa in 2022. Number of times with an OPS+ over 120? Twice. (2019 Polanco). Number of times Twins SS had an OPS+ under 100 (aka, league average hitting)? 19 times. In 25 years before this season we had SS with an OPS+ above league average exactly 6 times (and half the time they were barely scraping over the line). The package of hitting and defense Correa brings is massive. I'm thrilled to have a top SS like Correa. he looks healthy this season and is playing great.
  22. jmlease1
    nice to have an injury update covering the entire system in one place. not so nice to have it be such a lengthy list! looking forward to seeing a few guys come off it like Jenkins, Lee, and Lewis (x2).
  23. jmlease1
    Keaschall is making it look like he doesn't have anything left to learn in A-ball and should probably get a promotion to AA fairly soon. pretty impressive at 21. Glad to see Doncon moving up as well and looking forward to seeing how he performs. It's great to see Matthews having strong early success at AA. Happy 24th, mah dude! happy to have him out of A-ball and going against better hitters and working in a hitter-friendly environment in the Texas League. If he's able to thrive there it's a good sign, because there should be plenty of hitters who are advanced enough to be a challenge. So far, it's been about as good as you could possibly ask. Wichita has 5 interesting starting pitching prospects right now with Matthews, Raya, Ohl, Nowlin, and Morris and that's without Lewis throwing an inning. Fun group, glad to see them all in AA.
  24. jmlease1
    Yeah, I found that baffling as well. I moved Prielipp off my top 20 completely; it doesn't matter how much talent you have if you never play. Much like Canterino. I'm rooting for them both and I have on their upside, but as prospects they both fall off the list for me. I dinged Lewis some since he hasn't pitched yet this season, and as a college pitcher showing success at AA quickly is fairly important for his future prospects, but not as much, since he's still expected to pitch this season (so far) and this is his first bout with injury. There's a lot of talent on the Twins prospect list; hopefully they'll be able to shake some of the injury bug and show what they're capable of.
  25. jmlease1
    he's got a good fastball when he only has to throw it for about an inning. Jax couldn't make in MLB as a starter and they already tried it. he might do a little better now having refined his slider, but his fastball would almost certainly drop off. He's become a great bullpen arm. Trying to reverse course with these guys almost never works and would almost certainly do little to help the rotation while simultaneously weakening the bullpen. Seems extremely bad.
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