Jump to content
Tigers-Twins game thread is live — talk the game with us! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jmlease1

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,642

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    30

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    A nice win. Bobby Witt Jr sure is a heck of a player. He took a big leap forward last season and looks like he's taken another one this season. KC finally has the star they need and their starting pitching has been pretty great (and is Sal Perez ever going to get old?). Did not expect them to be this good, but they have been. Is it sustainable? we'll see. SWR keeps doing the job: give your team a chance to win. I'd like to see him get a little deeper, take a little pressure off the bullpen, but he's keeping the team in the game and I'm not sure how much more you can ask from a 5th starter. Great Buxton game last night. hits, walks, defense, and speed. That triple is everything I love about Buck.
  2. jmlease1
    Good week for a lot of prospects! Always nice to see. I'm very excited about the Wichita rotation right now; lot of talent there and interesting prospects, and if they can thrive in the Texas league it might be a good sign. Thrilled to have Lee and Jenkins back to work. While there wasn't anything to suggest their injuries were ruinous, it was just such a bummer to see a top Twins prospect not playing. We've had some rough luck with that over the years. Expecting Lee back in Saint Paul soon, and looking forward to seeing him go. Nothing wrong with putting a little pressure on Julien. Jenkins should be heading back across the parking lot to resume destruction of the FSL, and I still think he could move up to Cedar rapids this season even after missing a big chunk of time with the hammy. Hope Emma gets bumped to Saint Paul sooner rather than later; there really seems to be little left for him to prove in AA, which is kind of awesome, considering he's only 21 and has only 36 games under his belt there. but he's dominating, just crushing it. I say send Ohl along with him, get him some AAA time in case there's a flood of injuries in the rotation (knock on wood).
  3. jmlease1
    Joe Ryan was terrific. 7 innings, only 4 hits, no walks, and kept it in the park. Really good to see him finishing off hitters effectively. In his last 4 starts he's put up his highest 3 Game Scores of the season. He's really throwing well right now, and having an excellent season. He's gotten into the 6th in every single start this season, only had one start all year where he's yielded more than 1 free pass too. He's really fun to watch. I hope he can sustain this kind of run; he's been worse in the second half of the season so far in his career. But that also includes last year's muck up where he tried to pitch through an injury, and I suspect he's learned not to try and hide something like that again. Nice to see Larnach slam one out; he'd been scuffling after a hit start, so it'll be interesting to see if this gets him back on track. Miranda's bomb was a no-doubter too and he's definitely making the case to stick around after Royce returns.
  4. jmlease1
    Excellent outing from Ohl. He's gone at least 5 innings in every start this season, which you have to like. Really the thing to watch with him is the big flies; if he's keeping the ball in the park, he's rolling. When he gets tagged for a couple of dingers his day isn't so good. (given up 2 runs or less in every game where he hasn't given up a HR) He's having a fine season and looks ready for a promotion to Saint Paul. Rodriguez is just a monster. the batting average is going up, the on-base percentage is absurd, he's pounding the ball...he sure looks ready for AAA too. Hard to believe he's only 21, but no complaints. This is a learning season for Soto. He's so young, and is going to have bumps along the way. It's his first professional season after all, and they thought enough of him to put him in A ball out the gate rather than rookie ball at the complex. Always thought it was going to take a while for him, but there's still loads of talent there. Refinement may take some time.
  5. jmlease1
    I don't think the Twins are ignoring K-rate, they just don't see it as disqualifying. At the end of the day, a strike out is just another out. (yes, runners can't generally advance on a K, but at the same time, you don't get double plays either) If a hitter is doing everything else right (drawing walks, hitting the ball hard, etc) then you can handle a significant K-rate. Right now, that's the question with ER: is he making enough contact on pitches in the zone, can he do it consistently as he goes up levels, can he keep himself from expanding the strike zone as pitchers get better and he sees fewer uncompetitive pitches and more deception. Right now, he's answering the call. Yes, there are still a lot of Ks, but he's also punishing the ball consistently and drawing tons of walks. Part of his evolution as a hitter is also going to be that selective aggression where you go after more pitches early in counts so you're not sitting 0-2, 1-2 as often. But I'm quite certain the Twins staff is working on him with all of that. The fact that he's hitting so effectively at AA at age 21 is a very good sign.
  6. jmlease1
    Excellent outing from Festa. He still needs to show consistency from start to start; he's still been a bit up and down. He's been following those starts where he looks impossible to hit with outings where he's been pretty hittable. That's the next step in his evolution, I think: finding the consistency from start to start. But he's definitely putting himself in position to get a shot at MLB this season. We've been a little lucky that we haven't needed to dip too far into our rotation depth this season (good job by SWR in holding things down) and Festa has had time to ramp up and get more development time. He's getting closer every start. Lee and Jenkins should be ready to jump back to their regular clubs soon, but I can understand why they're doing the rehab assignments in the complex league. But I'm looking forward to getting them back where they belong soon; neither is going to be tested in rookie ball. Fun list of pitchers starting on sunday for the Twins: Varland, Ohl, and Soto all going? Love it.
  7. jmlease1
    I think Rodriguez should be strongly considered for a mid-season promotion to AAA, especially if he keeps hitting like this. Goodness, he's been better in AA than he was in high A. Sure, the Texas League is a hitter's environment, but he's 21 and crushing it. He still strikes out a lot, but when you're drawing almost as many walks as Ks, hitting .280 and have an OPS of 1.054...are we really that worried about the K's?
  8. jmlease1
    I hope that they continue to give him more; at a certain point he has to show he can throw 80+ pitches and be effective if he's going to stay as a starter. He did great in this outing, and that's good. But he's so hard to evaluate when he's still only throwing 50-60 pitches and 3-4 innings. Love seeing Jenkins, Lee, and Cory Lewis all on the stat sheet. Love seeing the injured guys getting back into it. Lewis is probably going to need several starts to get going and get ramped up, but just seeing him throwing again is good news.
  9. jmlease1
    Love seeing the Twins working counts and drawing walks like this. Texas is lucky we didn't blow this one out. Good things will continue to come if we keep piling on the baserunners. Good that Paddack was able to grind through 5; hopefully the velocity bounces back, but you have to expect days like this for a guy coming off a substantial injury. The fact that he was able to get through without his best stuff and keep us in the game is good news, I think. The blast from Kirilloff sure helped. Hopefully he gets on a bit of a run and the hits pile up for him. I still believe in his talent; when he's going well it's as sweet a swing as you'll see and he can hammer hits all over the park. Keep it rolling!
  10. jmlease1
    A good win, but I wanted to chuck the plate umpire into the Mississippi with the sequence in the bottom 3rd into the top of the 4th, because it's the kind of inconsistency that drives me absolutely batty (and clearly our hitters too). Ump expanded the zone putting our hitters in a hole with pitches that did not look like strikes and hadn't been called as strikes earlier in the game (especially on the inside part of the plate to LH hitters); down 0-2 they were in a real problem against the low changeup as they're trying to cover the whole (and what they saw as very wide) plate. Top 4, Ober is throwing pitches in the same spots...and not getting the same calls. It didn't end up mattering, but it's so aggravating. Morneau doesn't go after umpires that much, but he was on it. Glad to see Kirilloff pound a homer. He's been scrabbling for a month and needed this. Hopefully he can get back to smashing line drives. 10 hits and 5 walks is usually going to score more than 3 runs, and the approach at the plate was good by the offense. Excellent work by the bullpen to nail down the win. Okert having a weird season; he's pitched pretty well overall and has a solid ERA+...but has also managed to blow 5 saves already. He's been death against LH, but he needs to limit the damage against RH better or he going to be restricted in what he can do for us. Good work in this game, though.
  11. jmlease1
    because RBIs are a relevant stat. (not that it really matters, but your pace is way off unless you're assuming Correa misses significant time again the rest of the season) You've said yourself that he's one of the best defenders we've had since Gagne (who last played for the Twins in 1992); the only other one in this range was Simmons, who couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. He's the best hitter we've at at SS in franchise history (Smalley is the only other real contender). I would argue that any downgrade in his defense is based on the rules change that forces the infielders to position themselves on the dirt. He's been penalized by the league, but hasn't actually gotten any worse. It's too bad, because his arm is awesome at SS and he could make plays on guys who were sure that they were going to beat out the grounder, and they took some of that away to...get more soft singles and give an advantage to fast infielders who can't throw? Banning the shift was fine, expanding the bases and limiting pickoffs to invigorate the running game worked, but telling infielders with great arms they can't play back is dumb.
  12. jmlease1
    I think they'll be making more of the promotion decisions in June; while I wouldn't mind advancing the calendar a bit I'm not going to get super upset if they stay on a June timeline. Culpepper and Nowlin were both very good, and they're intriguing prospects. It'd be nice to have a LH starter in the mix, but Nowlin still has things to work on. I think either him or Ohl would make sense to move to AAA, which opens space for Culpepper in Wichita (and Cory Lewis on his return). I like the wave that's coming through in AA with the pitchers, going to be interesting to see how that winnows out. You have to assume that not all of them are going to keep doing this well, but it sure would be an awesome problem to have. Walker Jenkins is too good to play in rookie ball...which is awesome. Hammy looks fine, hopefully it doesn't give him any more trouble. No objections to the Twins being cautious in working him back, though: he's a special player. get him right, and let him wreak havoc upon his enemies! Lee will bear watching. Back injuries can be tricky and everything can be going great and then it flares again. Hopefully he's feeling good, feeling strong and can put it past him. I'm looking forward to having him in Saint Paul ASAP.
  13. jmlease1
    Assumes facts not in evidence. Emma has neutral splits so far in his professional career and demonstrated that he has the ability to hit LHP even as a LH batter. The Twins sit LH in MLB that have shown they are less effective against LHP. I'd say it's pretty likely they'll give E-Rod a shot to hit lefties consistently until he shows he can't. I really don't understand why people oppose platooning when a hitter is clearly worse against same-sided pitching. Did we learn nothing from watching Jacque Jones struggle mightily against LHP?
  14. jmlease1
    is this satire? Correa has an OPS+ of 133 as of 5/24. That's outstanding, especially at SS. From 1999-2023 guess how many times the Twins primary SS had an OPS+ of 130 or better? Once, by Carlos Correa in 2022. Number of times with an OPS+ over 120? Twice. (2019 Polanco). Number of times Twins SS had an OPS+ under 100 (aka, league average hitting)? 19 times. In 25 years before this season we had SS with an OPS+ above league average exactly 6 times (and half the time they were barely scraping over the line). The package of hitting and defense Correa brings is massive. I'm thrilled to have a top SS like Correa. he looks healthy this season and is playing great.
  15. jmlease1
    nice to have an injury update covering the entire system in one place. not so nice to have it be such a lengthy list! looking forward to seeing a few guys come off it like Jenkins, Lee, and Lewis (x2).
  16. jmlease1
    Keaschall is making it look like he doesn't have anything left to learn in A-ball and should probably get a promotion to AA fairly soon. pretty impressive at 21. Glad to see Doncon moving up as well and looking forward to seeing how he performs. It's great to see Matthews having strong early success at AA. Happy 24th, mah dude! happy to have him out of A-ball and going against better hitters and working in a hitter-friendly environment in the Texas League. If he's able to thrive there it's a good sign, because there should be plenty of hitters who are advanced enough to be a challenge. So far, it's been about as good as you could possibly ask. Wichita has 5 interesting starting pitching prospects right now with Matthews, Raya, Ohl, Nowlin, and Morris and that's without Lewis throwing an inning. Fun group, glad to see them all in AA.
  17. jmlease1
    Yeah, I found that baffling as well. I moved Prielipp off my top 20 completely; it doesn't matter how much talent you have if you never play. Much like Canterino. I'm rooting for them both and I have on their upside, but as prospects they both fall off the list for me. I dinged Lewis some since he hasn't pitched yet this season, and as a college pitcher showing success at AA quickly is fairly important for his future prospects, but not as much, since he's still expected to pitch this season (so far) and this is his first bout with injury. There's a lot of talent on the Twins prospect list; hopefully they'll be able to shake some of the injury bug and show what they're capable of.
  18. jmlease1
    he's got a good fastball when he only has to throw it for about an inning. Jax couldn't make in MLB as a starter and they already tried it. he might do a little better now having refined his slider, but his fastball would almost certainly drop off. He's become a great bullpen arm. Trying to reverse course with these guys almost never works and would almost certainly do little to help the rotation while simultaneously weakening the bullpen. Seems extremely bad.
  19. jmlease1
    If you believe that the -0.5 WAR defines that player and who they will be for the rest of the season at this point in May...then no, there's no point in playing them or likely having them on the roster any longer. but this is where MLB roster management gets very challenging, because players aren't static and having a rough first 2 months doesn't necessarily mean they're bad for good. the Max Kepler example is instructive: Kepler in May of 2023 looked a lot like the left-hand version of Margot. Couldn't hit his weight, wasn't great in the field, only played RF...a lot of people (including me) were ready to move on. And we were wrong: Kepler was great in the second half and huge contributor to the team. The other side of it was Gallo, who after a hot start just stopped making any consistent contact, drove everyone crazy with the whiffs, and his OF defense had declined some as well. We wanted him gone...and we were right. He never really got any better, but stuck around because of the injuries and was left off the postseason roster. Do you know for sure exactly who Margot is? Do you know for sure that he's going to be helpless against RHP, mediocre against LHP, and no real value added in the OF for the rest of the season? that's the conundrum for the Twins right now, and I presume why they're going to keep playing him against LHP to see if he can add value and is worth keeping. because the other options are hoping Wallner or Larnach can handle LHP or that Martin (who has not played to his ability in the OF and been sadly fairly similar to Margot in production) is ready for another go. the only reason Margot got left in after Corbin left was because the game was looking out of reach, otherwise we would have seen Larnach (who has cooled off substantially and has been pretty bad during this losing streak). It's not about making him smile. It's about trying to get as much data as possible to see whether there's something worth keeping once guys get healthy. I still lean towards no, but let's see how it goes until Lewis is back.
  20. jmlease1
    Thrilled to see Brooks Lee (and Walker Jenkins) back to active duty. Looking forward to seeing how Morris does in AA; guessing he might have had some nerves to start the game, lol. he still did ok. I'm intrigued by Yasser Mercedes. he's off to a heck of a start in rookie ball this year, but maybe I just get overly excited about players who hit triples. (They're so fun!)
  21. jmlease1
    no, they are saying that Baldelli isn't managing every regular season game like it's a playoff game. The roster is different in the regular season and you have to play the long game when it's still May. The season doesn't end if you lose 2 of the next 3 and you simply can't get through a season if you work everyone to death in May rather than try to extract value out of every part of your roster. Margot has been bad this season and that acquisition isn't looking good. But against a LHP, he's not a terrible option when you look at our outfield. Kirilloff has been struggling and Kepler has always been much weaker against LHP, so if you want to give Kepler a bit of a break...it's all reasonable. Baldelli doesn't control the 26-man roster (or the 40-man). I'm sure he has input, but the final say is with the front office, and they're not ready to cut bait on Margot. Trying to find ways to use him that will help the team and/or not hurt the team is Baldelli's job. remember, refusing to ever play a guy on the roster can cause clubhouse problems too. And if they can get Margot going to where he's value-added against LHP, there's at least a role for him. Defensively he looked better last night too. I'm still not a fan, and I think as the roster gets healthier with Lewis getting closer you need to think hard about whether he's worth hanging on to...but for now, you need to still use your whole roster. Nice to see the team steal a couple of bases last night. There are some good runners on this squad and I'd like to see them attack the bases more. Of course, this requires guys to get on base consistently.
  22. jmlease1
    Walker Jenkins Talent is massive, not downgrading him for injuryBrooks Lee See above.Emmanuel Rodriguez tempting to move him up since he's playing and producing so well.David Festa Looking more MLB-ready all the timeMarco Raya Can't move him up higher without more innings, but the talent is thereGabriel Gonzalez lot of upside here, but is already doing good things in high A at 20Charlee Soto long way to go, but big-time abilityBrandon Winokur high ceiling...might be lower floorLuke Keaschall having a fine yearTanner Schobel AA has been harder on himZebby Matthews Has to be on the list with his performance. Might deserve to be higher.Danny De Andrade D is good...will need to hit better. But moved up every year and earned it.Yasser Mercedes super young but super talentedKala'i Rosario hasn't exactly crushed it in AA, but still has a talented batAustin Martin last time on the list, I think? he can play in MLBCory Lewis The injury is worrisome and pushes him downRayne Doncon good hitter, will likely move to 3B at some pointSimeon Woods Richardson probably his last time on the list too...Jaylen Nowlin still has things to work on, but has held his own in the Texas LeagueRubel Cespedes probably too old for some, but he's been hitting the heck out of the ball. Lot of good prospects in the Twins system. They also have guys who won't be seen as high-end prospects, but will have legit MLB potential by the time they get to AA and AAA. Had to downgrade some guys for injury: can't have Canterino or Prielipp on here at this point; they just aren't pitching. Toughest omission? Probably Pierson Ohl, who is doing well in AA and has gotten it done at pretty much every stop. but there are fair questions whether his stuff will hold up.
  23. jmlease1
    Castro has earned a little stick for his defensive lapses recently. But he's still been good overall. I was happy to see the twins draw some walks against the Yankees, but apparently right now it's an either/or situation with the offense: walks or hits, but not both! Not great. Offense has really looked flat the last 2 games. 7 or 8 baserunners a game simply isn't enough. (This is not news) I'm not panicking or anything, but it's really annoying to lose to the Yankees. I hate losing to the ChiSox the most, but then it's the damned Yankees. (probably followed by Cleveland?) I hate the arrogance and entitlement of the franchise, I hate how the media treats every midwest club that plays them as automatically being lesser, unworthy of attention or interest. I hate the fact that they can make stupid trades and signings and simply buy their way out of it. (I do love the fact that they haven't won a pennant or a title in 15 years, though, despite all their money. because it burns their fans up) Hope the Twins can at least avoid the sweep. we're right in the division race, and I'd hate for a sweep to the damned Yankees to make people turn on this team again. because it feels like there's a portion of the fanbase that's looking for a reason to trash the club again, and that's really no fun at all.
  24. jmlease1
    Here's the thing though: if you focus on the downside/negatives for your pitching prospects, every team's prospect list is going to look pretty crap. Someone coming in from the outside who ready your list above would think the twins pitching prospects have little hope and low value...and that's simply not the case. Festa still has an issue with BB/9 that he needs to show he can correct. His last 5 starts have been significantly better in that respect than his first 3 starts of the year, so it's looking up....but reading this you'd think he was trending down. Raya is still a starter; the fact that you don't approve of the development path they have him on related to his pitch counts doesn't change the fact that the organization and baseball professionals still slot him as a starter. Soto is 18 with a flamethrower for an arm that they skipped past rookie ball. Culpepper only has 4 starts this season. the BB/9 is too high, but he's also still (like Festa) been successful at limiting runs. Lewis (as noted) is hurt. Sadly, that happens with pitching prospects. A lot. Same with Canterino and Prielipp. (arguably neither is a prospect any longer because of their health...but let me know when you find a team that has less than 3 of their top 12-15 pitching prospects with injury issues.) Morris: you started with the negative again (he's repeating a level) in order to downgrade any accomplishment he's made this year, apparently. Yes, he's repeating the level this season...but he also got an early promotion last season and he's hardly old for the level. Matthews: basically the only guy on the list so far you didn't put a strike on (though the "fingers crossed" comment suggests you don't have confidence in him) SWR: arguably, the comment about his rookie status is a suggestion that he doesn't count, but overall, this is fairly neutral Lares: "holding his own"? he's got a 2.19 ERA and a WHIP of 1.014 at age 20. is keeping the ball in the park nicely too. Bowen: The BB/9 isn't great, but it's much more sustainable when you don't give up hits. 5.6 H/9 is great. He's a little older and should advance fast, but he's moved up a level both years as a pro. If you look at the upside of all of these prospects, you get a very different picture than looking at the downside/flaws. An accurate representation should likely land somewhere in the middle. Twins seem to have a philosophy of pitcher development in bulk, probably knowing that there are going to be injuries and bumps along the way. they'll take a risk on a high impact arm with an injury history (Canterino, Prielipp) but also load up on college pitchers from lesser known schools with characteristics they think they can develop (Festa, Lewis, Matthews, Culpepper). Lot of guys on this list that have a chance to pitch in MLB. But if the standard for a pipeline is having a potential "ace" at every level, I think you're always going to be disappointed. Much as you will if your first instinct is to look for the downside to every prospect.
  25. jmlease1
    they used to defer to veterans preference on this, and now they're being more directive, and it's hard to believe that spending a few games in AAA (or even Ft. Myers) so you can get your timing tested in game situations and show you can actually run in a game environment is a bad idea for almost any of them.
×
×
  • Create New...