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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    i think you have him pretty well evaluated here. he's absolutely got to be able to command the zone better and keep the free passes down. If he's able to get the BB/9 down closer to 3 and do it without needing to back off his stuff to throw strikes, then I suspect we'll see the K-rate tick up a bit and his H/9 tick down/stay reasonable as well. Too often a player with his profile starts tossing a "get-over" pitch in 3 ball counts that lead to more hits (Pagan was a great example of this, IMHO) He's doing a good job keeping the ball in the park this year, which is no small feat in the Texas League. Disagree that he was primarily a reliever in 2022, though: 22 appearances, 14 were starts.
  2. jmlease1
    It's certainly preferable that Margot and Farmer are back to performing the way they were anticipated in the roles they were brought in/kept to perform. The problem is that they are only effective in pretty limited roles. Neither Farmer nor Margot hits RHP worth a damn at this point and there are a lot more RHP in MLB. With such a limited roster, it's a little tough to carry 2 specialists like this and not have them get exposed. Particularly in how our LH hitters have done (or failed to do) against RHP this season. Easier to have Farmer as a bench option to come in against a tough LHP later in games if you have Ed Julien raking against RHP, or Margot doing the same when you have Wallner on a roll. Which was certainly the plan at the start of the season, and Margot & Farmer were both expected to be better defensive options than those 2 players as well. Early in the year no one held up their end of the bargain. We've been lucky Buxton has been healthy enough to play extensively in CF, because Margot hasn't looked like a good option there regularly. (I think he's looked better in the OF lately, but it's not crazy at all to prefer Castro or Martin out there) happy to see the twins not get annihilated by LHP so easily now, and Farmer and Margot have certainly helped with that recently. Concerned that their inability to hit their weight against RHP still makes them more of a liability than a true asset.
  3. jmlease1
    You've made it very clear that a) you think the front office doesn't value defense, b) you highly value defense, c) you don't respect the front office for caring about power production from prospects, and d) you think the Dodgers are much better at developing prospects than the Twins. But unless Miller can hit better than this the front office didn't blow anything. Miller's never had an OPS over .700 in his career, and there's little to no evidence that the Dodgers have done anything to significantly improve him as a player. He looks like the exact same player the Twins had: a good glove, no-hit shortstop.
  4. jmlease1
    I would expect most guys need some adjustment time in their first stint at a higher level, but we'll see where Doncon lands at the end of the season. If he's able to show similar power to what he flashed in Ft. Myers it's a good sign. I still don't expect Doncon to stick at SS, though. Miller had a hot stretch when he hit 4 HRs in 3 games at the end of April/beginning of May...since then he's been kinda rough at the plate again: fairly poor OB%, only 7 xbhs in 46 games since the HR barrage, and his OPS has been on a real slide back down under .700. not great for repeating High A. he might still make it because the glove is excellent, but he's likely to just get overwhelmed at the plate unless something changes and not many teams can carry a no-hit defensive specialist. I suspect this is why the twins were willing to deal him.
  5. jmlease1
    Oakland does have some talent; there are some good hitters over there and their bullpen is quality. The starting pitching, on the other hand...injuries, poor performance and hope that a guy like Hogan Harris has figured it out? oof.
  6. jmlease1
    Julien had a good week, so hopefully he's getting himself re-set and back to being the quality hitter he's shown he can be. I think it's fair to have him show it for a few more weeks, though: selective aggression, patience, and making consistent contact when he swings. Development paths aren't always linear. Doncon seems to be settling in at Cedar Rapids, and it'll be interesting to see how he finishes the season. He's still getting most of his time at SS, but they are playing him at 2B and 3B as well. Hopefully he can show a little more pop in the bat, but I'm always happy when I see guys hitting triples.
  7. jmlease1
    Wallner has better range than he looks; he's a player that might not pass the eye test but is actually respectable enough out there. he'll be far better in RF where he belongs, though. Ratings seem about right overall. Correa won't rate as highly as he used to because of the rule changes that don't let him play as far back as his arm would normally allow but he's still a quality defender at SS. Julien was trending up towards average to me, but I have no illusions that he's a plus defender. I expect to see Buxton ranking fairly well next time these are published? It'll be interesting to see how Lewis does. he seems to have the tools but needs more time so that they can play up and he doesn't have to think as much but react and go more. not sure where his ceiling is defensively. but betting against Royce Lewis seems like a fools errand...
  8. jmlease1
    Great job by Pablo. Fun to see that bullpen chart with so many guys registering a zero pitch count for a few games; can't be sad about a well-rested bullpen going into the AZ series. Pablo's stuff had been still good even in this tough stretch, so it's good to see him putting it back together and having a dominating start. No loss of concentration, no hard luck inning, just dominating. Oakland is a poor offensive team, but shutting them down so completely 2 games in a row is still excellent work, and Oakland actually had a decent crowd for Pablo Day. Glad to see Buxton rip a dinger. He's not up to his ability on offense yet this season (though he's not actually been bad; we and he all just expect more and he's capable of more) but it is nice to have him playing so much because the defense is still excellent. If he can tick the offense up a bit he's going to have a nice solid season and maybe a dinger like this that is impactful on the game will help get him going. A hot Buck sure would be fun this summer...
  9. jmlease1
    Complicated on Sabato. While the overall numbers at the AFL were ok, there were some of the same concerns with him inside them: low contact rates, really high Ks, low BA. He certainly doing better this season in AA, but I would hope that a 25-year old in AA repeating a level would show improvement or he'd be looking at the end of his career. It's good to see the improve contact rates and lower Ks, but he's also had to lose a little of patience and isn't piling up the walks quite as well. He's going to be a hard call for the 40-man next season; Twins are facing a bit of a crunch there. Sabato doesn't add anything on the defensive end (mediocre 1B); he absolutely has to hit to have value. Texas league is also a hitters environment...is he hitting enough? It'd be nice to get some value out of Sabato, who was bordering on bust territory. He's had a good stretch, but I'm not sold yet.
  10. jmlease1
    Nice to see Severino on such a heater. It seems unlikely that Santana will be back next year, so there should be an opportunity at 1B for him, and the fact that he's a switch-hitter would be another nice add even as a bench bat. Having a couple of effective switch-hitters in your lineup can really help keep things balanced and make it harder to attack by the other team's bullpen, so hopefully Severino has figured something out and can keep rolling. Considering how the LH OF have let the side down a bit this season, have to wonder if Kiersey might get his shot? Not being on the 40-man might be the biggest barrier at this point, but you have to wonder if he keeps hitting and stays healthy what he'll have to do.
  11. jmlease1
    Come on. You can't just count the cost of Gray's salary this season in a vacuum: you have to look at the total length and value of that contract, Yes, paying Sonny Gray $10M in 2024 is awesome, and a real steal. Paying Gray $35M in 2026? Better hope he's still healthy at 36. Plus the fact that he wanted to play closer to home, etc.
  12. jmlease1
    Jeffers is mired in a dreadful slump right now, with a .345 OPS in June. Vazquez has actually put up a .790 OPS in the same period. More importantly, Jeffers has played 63 out of 76 games this season, and has stayed healthy. Maybe not so asinine. Margot has turned it around and is putting up a .758 OPS in June as well. The idea that these are easy and simple decisions is what's laughable. If they cut Farmer and Lee dings his back again and is out for a month, how's that going to work? I'm pretty sure you'll be back railing on the front office for being stupid, stubborn, and clueless if they drop Margot and Wallner goes 3-24 with 14K's too. Offense really isn't the problem right now: we scored 5. Paddack is looking like he needs a break, a reset, or maybe the league has figured out this iteration and he needs to make some serious adjustments. Funderburk not putting out the fire and Duran blowing one cost us the game, not Vazquez, Margot, or Farmer. The pitching has to step up: we've given up 6 or more runs in 7 games in June, 5 or more in 12. That's not going to get it done. Offense has scored 5 or more in 8 of the last 9.
  13. jmlease1
    The hitting potential of a Twins infield in 2025 with Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Miranda/Julien is tantalizing indeed. The power production is a good indicator that the back isn't giving him any trouble, I think. He hasn't played a ton yet, but all systems look go. If he hadn't gotten hurt early i think we would have already seen him at target Field. let him keep pushing. Good to see him get some time at 2B; that seems to be where he's going to get the first opportunity.
  14. jmlease1
    I think they're going to have to monitor this over the next 6 weeks to be sure. Okert is death to lefties, but is getting crushed by righties, which makes it harder to go to him late in games where he could immediately face at least one pinch hitter and might not get more than 1 lefty out of his minimum 3. Part of Thielbar's strength over the years was he could handle righties as well without getting nuked. I expect he'll get some additional opportunities to see if he can get it back, and he's got the track record that he deserves more rope. Giving Funderburk the opportunity makes the most sense right now. His control is still concerning, but he been good at not giving up hard contact and should have the ability to work around a walk or two.
  15. jmlease1
    The Twins competitiveness has a challenging impact on the bullpen: we're rarely blowing people out or getting blown out, which means that our top bullpen arms are often getting used and can leave us in a position where the lower guys on the list get asked to fill a role they're not really intended to handle. The top of the 'pen is pretty strong with Duran, Jax, and Alcala and when Stewart gets back they're in great shape from the right side late in games. The left side is a little more challenging with Thielbar in a funk and Okert struggling to get RH out, because we're no longer in a world where you can carry a LOOGY. Okert is death to lefties, but as soon as he comes in you have to expect the PH. Hopefully Funderburk can help. Tough beat making the big comeback and then falling short. Great to see Miranda playing so well, and Santana's revival has been impressive. Was surprised to see Jackson get recalled in the first place, glad to see him demoted again. Hopefully this experiment is over: Jackson can't get LH out at all has been just another guy against RH and he's not designed to be a mop-up guy either. He's got no future here and going to that well again and again seems like a waste. Let him fling sliders at AAA hitters. Disappointed to see Royce get thrown out at 3rd; yes, you want to advance a base but you simply can't get thrown out there. Have to wonder if that's a situation where he hasn't really internalized that's he's not as fast as he used to be.
  16. jmlease1
    Considering his injury history, it's probably not a bad idea to give him a little rest here and there. It's pretty incredible what he's done when he's been on the field. He's got the tools and the mindset for success and I love watching him play.
  17. jmlease1
    prime Ichiro also was good for 6-8 triples a season and put up SLG of .425 or better (which is also the mark where you see Arraez getting that OPS+ over 120 and being a more impactful player). But 100% correct: Ichiro wasn't just a singles hitter who did nothing else.
  18. jmlease1
    Thielbar has enough track record that he's going to get more rope unless they're seeing clear signs in his stuff that he's truly degraded. Complicated for relievers because of the small sample sizes. Jackson, on the other hand, should be gone as soon as Stewart is back if not before. He was a reasonable risk, but he seems likely to get through waivers again and even if he doesn't it's not great loss. Alcala, Jax, and Duran are already pretty murderous to face late in games (and did a great job shutting down TB last night) so adding Stewart back to that mix is going to be fun.
  19. jmlease1
    WAR is a useful metric. It does a reasonable job of looking at the totality of a player (hitting, baserunning, defense, the position they play, etc) and putting it into a stat that is fairly easy for people to understand so you can compare the value of wildly different players and do it across eras, which is hard. It's not the end-all be-all but one thing it does is ignore the "halo effect" of narratives around a player who is amazing at one cool thing. Arraez is one of the absolute best bat to ball players in MLB today and he consistently hits for high average. But WAR doesn't give you extra credit for being the best at one thing, and will still deficit you for being bad at others (like not hitting for power, playing poor defense, etc). I love Arraez, and he's a useful player with an increasingly unique skill set that's probably more valuable in the playoffs than in the regular season. But he needs to really hit a ton of those singles, especially when he's not taking walks and poking out the occasional homer. WAR does a good job of showing fairly who Correa is, I think. An elite hitter with good but no longer great defense at a premium position. He's not just playing like an all-star, he's playing more like an MVP. And that's what healthy Carlos Correa does. Hopefully LEN3 is a little embarrassed by his recent bad C4 take.
  20. jmlease1
    Getting on base is literally the first component of OPS. And which is more important, moving a runner up, or scoring the runner? The "clutch" ideas aren't really borne out except in people's generally faulty memories. We remember big, important moments when a player got the job done at times and forget about the others. But time after time it's been shown that it's really more just a matter of a player being very good and getting opportunities rather than them actually performing better in the clutch. Having a lineup full of Arraez-type players might be more ascetically pleasing, but it won't be more successful or score runs over a season than one filled with ones with a higher overall OPS but lower batting averages. The most important skill for a hitter is avoiding outs. There's an advantage in doing it with hits over walks in that you can get extra bases, but that's also mitigated partially by the fact that you also get double-plays. But hitting for power also matters. It's far more efficient to move a runner over with a double than a groundout. It's easier to score 2 runs with a walk and a homer than by stringing together 3-4 singles before making 3 outs. It just is. If you have a lineup made up of Carlos Santana types who have OPSs that are 10-20 pts up on your theoretical Aaraez lineup, you will score a lot more runs. Correa being called overrated is a legacy of the Houston scandal I'm sure, but it's certainly silly. He proved he didn't need the "help" to be incredibly successful after the system was found out and dismantled, and proved it when he joined the Twins and was excellent for us in his first season. He's crushing it this year. And it's hardly his fault that MLB changed the rules so he can't play farther back to compensate for his poor foot speed and capitalize on his great arm. But even with that, he's a quality SS with an elite bat.
  21. jmlease1
    Correa is rolling right now. Love to see it. Glad to see the Twins aren't wasting it. I don't think Lopez is that far off, even if he had another disappointing start. The stuff is still there, but he's just hanging a few right now and getting punished for it. Think he'll be ok, but it;s a bit concerning. Those big bombs are really hurting right now. Impressed with the offense in how they clawed their way back into this. Did not love the clown at home plate and his ridiculous strike zone early in the game, though.
  22. jmlease1
    one of his 2 all-star years was the same year he won his Gold Glove (2021). So I don't understand your metrics here. You said "exceptional/very good". Correa was great as a rookie, playing excellent defense and hitting like crazy in only 99 games. (4.8 bWAR) and it's not like he was hurt, he played 53 games in the minors that season, destroying AA and AAA on his way up. That's 1. he followed it up with a very similar season in 2016, only this time he played 153 games, so more bWAR (7.0). That's 2. Deserving all-star in 2018. That's 3. he was awesome in 2019, but missed all of June and most of July with injury, so I skipped it. and the pandemic season was weird and he didn't hit, so I skipped it too. he was a deserving all-star in 2021. that's 4. he was great in 2022 for the Twins, even if his defense might have been a tick down. That's 5. If you want to argue he wasn't "exceptional" in all 5...ok. but to not qualify him as at least very good seems seriously unfair. It's like saying that if you're not one of the top 5 SS in all of baseball in each season it doesn't count.
  23. jmlease1
    I take midseason updates with a HUGE grain of salt, I will admit. jumping a player that they clearly had well outside their top 100 into the top 75 based on half a season? I mean, great for us if it's true but that's still hasty IMHO. And if keaschall really is getting on to prospect lists like that then this proposed trade just gets dumber and dumber.
  24. jmlease1
    he's had 5 all-star level seasons ('15-'17, '21-'22) in 9 seasons and is on pace for a 6th this year. I'd say that's more than 3 exceptional/very good seasons.
  25. jmlease1
    well, let's calm down a little on Keaschall: he's having a fine season and looks like a legit prospect, but he's not a global top 100 prospect. but under no circumstances are the Twins trading Festa in a package for a rental bat. This is a deal that looks awesome for the Mets and crap for the Twins, which is a classic Jim Bowden special. Dumbass ideas like this is why he's not in anyone's front office now and likely never will work in baseball again.
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