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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    "One of these things is not like the others..." Overrated Eovaldi had a good season last year, but he's nowhere near the class of Scherzer or DeGrom. not with that career ERA+ of 103. He's also 34 with an extensive history of injuries (not performances), with literally one great season. He's like half the pitcher Sonny Gray has been over their respective careers and no one is putting Sonny in the same category as Scherzer or DeGrom either. I would be at least as concerned about Eovaldi as I am about Paddack; at least Paddack is 6 years younger...
  2. jmlease1
    Yep, they'd all save everyone a lot of time and trouble if they just went out and shot themselves.
  3. jmlease1
    Look, you can look worst-case scenario, expect failure and disaster, or not. But tell me, how many teams in MLB aren't at major risk if 2 of their best starters go down for extended periods of time/the season? (how does the Yankees rotation look right now? How concerning is it for the Red Sox that their big pitching acquisition is done for the year?) The idea that you should realistically have 5 starters with no injury history, under the age of 30, with at least one ace and 1-2 more pitchers with high ceilings, no one a retread or trying to come back from a significant injury, along with 3 guys ready in AAA (2 young high-value prospects with high ceilings who have already at least had a cup of coffee in MLB and shown they can get guys out at this level and 1 veteran who signed with you because the rest of the league was too stupid to give them the MLB contract they deserved), etc just isn't how it works. Twins (like most teams, but especially mid-to-small market ones) have assumed some risks with this club. One of them is in the rotation, where they are counting on a rehab effort (Paddack) and 3 guys with relatively thin resumes (Ober, Ryan, Varland) to carry them alongside their ace, and with reasonably good health (being challenged with DeSclafani going down and very possibly out). They seem to believe that Festa and SWR will be ready to take on MLB hitters if needed.
  4. jmlease1
    I think the "trust" issue on Ober & Ryan is a little overblown. Ober got that call and didn't pitch that great so he got pulled to hopefully keep the game within reach with a fully-loaded bullpen. Ryan was pitching in an elimination game, so why not throw everything you have at it, especially with Pablo Lopez ready to go for game 4? (unfortunately, the offense didn't show in game 4) There weren't exactly a ton of opportunities for either in the playoffs. I'm a little concerned about the depth, because having DeSclafani pull a Mahle isn't great. but Varland deserves to start. I've always been a little higher on SWR than others, so I still feel like there's some depth to draw on later in the season, and it's kind of nice to have all 5 starters be on the good side of 30 for once. I wouldn't expect this rotation to be as strong as last season's, but it's hardly a trash fire. I like what we have in there better than any season in the last 5 years excepting 2023. I mean, in 2020 we were still relying on Randy Dobnak & the corpse of Rich Hill. 2021 had Matt Shoemaker, JA Happ, and Griffin Jax getting 44 effin' starts. 2022 we were trying to plug the holes with Dylan Bundy & Chris Archer. I'd certainly rather have Varland & Paddack be my last 2 guys in the rotation than any of those guys.
  5. jmlease1
    It's not really an issue if you have less power at 1B if you're generating it in other areas, so long as you're not just handing out tons of ABs to players that are poor offensive contributors as a whole. If Correa is back to his usual self, with Buxton and Jeffers also generating real power production then it doesn't matter as much if 1B isn't at league average SLG, so long as you're getting other contributions. It'll be interesting to see if Santana can SLG .400 or better this season; if he does I think we'll be just fine with our production from 1B between him and Kirilloff and maybe a little of Julien or possibly Farmer. If he's hovering around the Mendoza Line for his BA and SLG closer to .350 then his overall production isn't going to be good enough for him to be getting starting playing time. I do think this is a really deep lineup with a lot of players who have high ceilings and not too many low floors. They should score a lot of runs, and there's better balance this year than last, presuming average levels of health.
  6. jmlease1
    I hope Castro keeps improving, that would be a terrific result for the Twins. Not sure if he will, but he does seem to be finding an approach that works for him and how he can be effective at the plate. The baserunning has been really good, and paired with his defensive flexibility it makes him a real weapon. The fact that you can use Castro as a PH or PR later in a game and not have to make a significant shuffle (or any change at all!) to your defensive alignment and keep quality defenders in place is pretty impactful. the 1 for 1 substitution gives you more weapons to deploy as needed, and Castro's ability to slot in at 6 positions is one of the things i love about having him on the bench. He's going to get playing time. It's interesting to look back at his time in Detroit and wonder what happened there. Castro had been a successful base-stealer in Cleveland's system, but once he got to Detroit that part of his game basically vanished. I don't think it turned back on last season simply because of larger bases and fewer pickoffs.
  7. jmlease1
    Santana works counts and gets on base, which makes him a reasonable choice to lead off when Julien isn't in the lineup. When Julien is playing, I would expect him to lead off as he gets on base a ton and has shown an affinity for steals in the minors that will likely be deployed more this season.
  8. jmlease1
    I think the idea of Lorenzen makes more sense if you actually know that DeSclafani is going to have surgery and be out for the year (or be out at least until the all-star break or something). Right now, it's speculation. It's not unfounded, but fans going "it's a forearm strain! that means TJ, he's done for the year." doesn't mean it's reality. Seems unlikely that the Twins would try and make this move without knowing more about where DeSclafani actually is, instead of guessing, which is the scenario we currently have. It's not ideal to jump on the depth immediately, but Varland is more than capable of taking the ball to start the season. is the AAA depth good enough to withstand another injury to the rotation early in the year? A little more questionable; I think everyone would be happier if Festa and SWR could get in a month or more of starts in AAA first. but unless we know DeSclafani is for sure out for months (or the year), I don't seem them trying to buy more insurance with Lorenzen.
  9. jmlease1
    did I miss the announcement that DeSclafani is out for the year? I mean, maybe he will be, but until they actually slate him for surgery...
  10. jmlease1
    I'm not worried about Duran or Thielbar at this point; while Duran is a big loss because he's so dominant and oblique injuries can linger, the bullpen is deep enough to handle it. (come on down, Jose Alcala!) We have a lefty ready to go with Okert and a second that looks ready to step up in Funderburk. Desclafani is definitely a bit disheartening, even if was expected he wouldn't be ready to go on Opening Day because this seems to be a bit more serious than a guy just working his way back from injury. While I don't expect to see any major drop off with varland taking his innings, I do have concerns about the rotation depth when delving into it so early. That said, with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland at least we're not counting on a bunch of guys in their mid-to-late 30's? (on the other hand, Ober & Paddack have both had real injury troubles, and Ryan and Lopez haven't been entirely immune in their careers either....) not worried about Buxton being scratched at this point; it's a spring training game and they're going to be extra cautious with him, just in case. I'd bet all the money in my pockets against all the money in yours that if it had been an actual game he would have played and never hit the injury report. no disasters yet...let's hope none of the starters go down early.
  11. jmlease1
    you did suggest that Graterol was elite, though, and that's a little more questionable. He's had one elite season (2023), but there were some underlying numbers that should make you wonder whether he might have been a little lucky in there. And beyond that, we've seen many times that relievers can have an outstanding season of results and follow it up with a season where they're just another guy. I'd want him to prove it over more than one season, which Duran has done. Graterol is a certainly a good reliever, but not yet in Duran's class.
  12. jmlease1
    I mean, even with the big injury to Maeda, he still threw 50 more innings for the Twins than Graterol has for the Dodgers. The Twins really really needed the starter at that point, and as it's harder to and more expensive to find and keep starters...I'm still fine with this trade for the Twins, regardless of anything Raley might end up doing.
  13. jmlease1
    sure, but let's not pretend he was an all-star caliber player. He's a very streaky hitter on a terrible team that needed to be represented on the squad. Yes, he can crush fastballs...but is he going to see any if it matters? There's a reason he was pretty bad with RISP, and better with the bases open then with anyone on. He's a starter on a bad team. I have more faith in Kepler this season than I do Rooker. again, much like with Raley: it's nice for these guys that they had successful seasons. It doesn't mean that the teams that let them go were necessarily all that wrong about them. Wallner is younger and was as productive last season as Rooker was in about half the PT, and Wallner is substantially better defensively. And it made sense that SD didn't see him as passing their guys either. (A bit more surprising that he never got much of a chance in KC, because they stunk in 2022) Same with Raley: a not particularly good defender who had a hot first half in his age 28 season. There's a reason TB dealt him for a good defensive 2B, and he's going to be fighting for a job as a utility/4th OF now with Seattle. how much more upside is in Rooker or Raley? How likely is it that they're going to be back in the sub/replacement player range again soon?
  14. jmlease1
    I think when you start looking at 3rd order impacts to evaluate a trade you're going down a rabbit hole with no end. It doesn't matter than Luke Raley had a good 2023 for TB or Beeter is a potential rotation guy for the Yankees: they're neither of those things for the Dodgers, and it's not like Raley or Beeter was immediately turned into something. (BTW, good luck on Beeter being a real choice for the yankees; dude might hunt Ks in the minors, but a 4.9 BB/9 for a guy who wasn't exactly unhittable in AAA isn't likely to do more than make some spot starts, get killed and sent back to the minors.) Twins took a chance on Maeda staying healthy and while it didn't work out for them, the trade has still been good and the kind of deal I would still make. Starters are harder to find than relievers, and even with Maeda missing an entire season, he still threw 50 more innings for the Twins than Graterol has done for the Dodgers. yes, Graterol had an excellent season in 2023, but it's far and away his best season as a pro and from what we know about relievers and some of his underlying numbers...is it really likely to be repeated? I agree with the sentiment though that this was a deal where both teams got what they wanted: Twins needed a starter who could throw at the top end of their rotation, Dodgers needed a reliever with upside. Both teams got it. Raley having a good half season (notably, he was much worse in the 2nd half and played a lot less) really doesn't impact this deal. Camargo is the only other player outside of the principals still in either team's system, and if he turns out to be a quality backup MLB catcher...nice work by the Twins front office to grab a guy at a position of need.
  15. jmlease1
    Yep, I was one of the ones who was about ready to DFA Kepler last season. (For me the reason he "deserved" to be saved was they still had Gallo on the roster who was much worse and basically unplayable) I'm thrilled he turned it around last season and had a great second half. Can he do it again? He's a complicated player: he's always produced as a starter; his worst season (2017) he still turned in 1.9 bWAR. He's never really had a terrible season, but he's also never had another offensive season like 2019, nor a defensive one like 2018. He's had some injuries, but you could always count on him to play 70% of the team's games or more. He has (had?) the ability to play a reasonable CF...but didn't want to? (he's better suited to LF than Wallner, but there's really never been any real conversation about moving him there) He's always hit RHP well and had the typical 15+% reduction in OPS against LHP. I'd be nervous about extending him, but I'm still happy to have him for another season. His contract extension worked out just fine...but would another one go as well? I believe in Wallner's ability to make enough contact and his laser arm to make him a very viable RF going forward, so I think it's likely this may be the last hurrah with Kepler who was always decent to good, but never really took that next step that seemed to be happening in 2018-2019. With some of the OF hitting talent coming up through the minors, I think RF is in reasonable shape?
  16. jmlease1
    AK has been below average defensively everywhere he's played and while he was projected to be a quality defender at 1B, so far he hasn't shown it. Now, how much of that is because of his injuries? Hard to know, and there's still time for him to develop into a good defender at 1B, but so far he hasn't been good. I do think locking Kirilloff in at DH is something of a waste, but he's got to find a way to get through a season without the kind of arm/shoulder injuries that have plagued him to date, because it's very obvious in his hitting when he's not right, and it likely harms his ability in the field as well. Miranda has a ways to go. I'm not ready to giver up on him by any means, but it's also sounded like he's not fully recovered from off-season surgery. If he can get it back and get comfortable at 1B he and Kirilloff could be a heck of a platoon for next season.
  17. jmlease1
    I think you're very far out in right field, left field, any field if you think Wallner's going to start the season in AAA. The Twins value MLB results more than spring training showings (justifiably) and Wallner was very good last season. he's not a great OF, but he's not awful either and his biggest asset as a defender (the elite arm) doesn't showcase as much value once guys stop running on him. To put Wallner in context, though: he's played about half as many games as Larnach and accumulated the same amount of bWAR. The power is legit, he's not afraid to get hit if a pitcher tries to go inside on him, and he doesn't start chasing when he's struggling to make contact. A pitcher grooving one on a 3-1 count is flirting with disaster. If Kepler weren't still here, he'd already be making the transition back to RF, where he'll do better once he's gotten used to the vagaries of the MLB RF. I think it's likely that happens next season with one of the young guys trying to seize LF (Martin's range plays well there, E-Rod can certainly handle it, and if Rosario's hit his way into pushing for a MLB job he'll do fine there too) Margot & Castro should fill in fine handling the tougher lefties; we might even see Farmer get a little run out there if needed. LF looks pretty solid going into the year.
  18. jmlease1
    Except that Miranda hits RH and while Santana switch-hits, he's much better against LHP at this point. So it's not really a good platoon fit. I still like Miranda and hope that he can get past the shoulder troubles and be an impact bat. If he does, he could be a nice platoon partner for Kirilloff at 1B next season when Santana moves on, or even in this season if Santana is cooked/gets hurt. But he's not really a fit to platoon with Santana.
  19. jmlease1
    Kirilloff is the one most likely to have the biggest impact: he's on the 26-man roster from day 1, and if he can stay healthy he's already shown he can be an impact bat. I think he's still in the twins long-term plans, but they're going to keep hedging against him until he shows he can stay healthy. Alcala will almost certainly get another big chance this year; I think he's already in the Twins short-to-midterm plans as a middle reliever/set-up guy...but I also think they look at most relievers as being somewhat fungible and don't expect to have a reliever as a core piece for more than a few years. Miranda is the one who has the toughest road. He doesn't have a clear position, he still looks like he's getting past the injury, and he has other players of a similar age that have jumped past him, while also having guys from the minors pushing as well. Hard to see him back at 3B, almost no chance he's in the mix at 2B (which was his preferred position), so he'll need to find his way at 1B, where he could be a fine platoon partner for another guy on this list going forward, but he'll have to hit. I think Kirilloff and Alcala are in the Twins plans right now, but they're not being counted on as core performers like they were previously thought to be or projected to be. One of the best abilities you can have in sports is availability. All three of these guys have come up short there.
  20. jmlease1
    His success will depend on whether or not he can command the changeup he was developing before the big arm injury knocked him out for basically the year. Alcala has been death to righties with the fastball-slider combo, but needed a different result to be effective against lefties. It looked like it was starting to come around, but we really won't know until he gets another shot at MLB hitters outside of spring training. The velocity is looking like it's back where it needs to be, he's got a weapon in the slider, and if he can command the change he's going to be a very effective reliever if he can stay healthy. I'm a fan of his ability. He's got the talent to pitch late innings, not just be a 6th inning kind of guy. What's unknown to me is how many innings he can pitch in a typical outing; is he strictly a 1 inning guy, or can he get 3-6 outs as needed?
  21. jmlease1
    it's spring training. really hard to get a good read out of that; we've seen guys destroy the ball who couldn't get a hit later. we've seen guys cold as ice have a fine season. Always rather have a good spring training than a bad one, but I've stopped getting excited about numbers and just hope for health.
  22. jmlease1
    If he repeats last year, he's a borderline all-star. His glove would play up a little better in RF over LF (less room to cover and the arm matters more) but he's not bad out there, even if he looks a little awkward at times. He's faster than people realize, it just takes him a bit to get going. i could see his numbers improving this season as he gets more comfortable playing at Target Field and just knowing better how balls play off the bat there. He's not going to be great against LHP pitching, but he's probably better than last season might have suggested: hard to really judge when a guy only gets 46 PAs against them last season. And since he's likely to be the first choice to get platooned for Margot if Buxton is healthy, his exposure will be fairly limited again. Which will continue to make it harder to know exactly how well (or less bad) he really is against LHP but also limits any harm he could cause by facing them. It will be interesting to see if pitchers can exploit his lack of contact; I don't see them having substantially more success in making him chase pitches. His plate discipline is strong and he maintained it last season even during some tougher stretches at the plate where the Ks were really piling up and finished the season very strong.
  23. jmlease1
    SS is in pretty good shape right now (like the entire infield, really). If there's a negative, there's not necessarily an heir apparently to Correa in the system right now (Lewis is locking in at 3B, maybe he could slide back over; Lee consistently has questions asked; Castro is better as a utility guy; Farmer is here now, but might not be here past this season; Noah Miller was traded...leaving Danny DeAndrade, who hasn't played a game above Low A yet). But with the expectation that Correa can stay at SS for at least the next 3 seasons, there's time to work on that pipeline again. I know the metrics didn't have Correa as having a particularly good year at SS, and I think that's probably right: the foot injury almost certainly hampered his ability to make a strong first move, slowed him down a little more when foot speed was never a strong point, and even hindered his throwing with stress planting on the foot. But even with that...he still made the plays out there. I expect his numbers to tick up this season if he really is healthy and feeling good like he appears to be. The positioning is still excellent, the arm is elite, and he really does QB the defense for the infield out there. Watch for 2022 Correa to be out there again.
  24. jmlease1
    Context matters. Sure, Dobnak was basically a "5 and Fly" pitcher, but he was also effective before the injuries basically ruined his career...and the Twins were notably very short on pitching when they signed him to that deal. Locking down a starting pitcher for 4 years at $2M per season looked like it might be really nice business at a time when guys like Lance Lynn would come in at $12M for a season and not even want to be here and we were trying to piece together rotations with Martin Perez and hoping Pineda could get through a season, or trying to claw something together with Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. The Dobnak deal didn't work out because of injuries, but it wasn't a crazy idea and you can't predict injuries, especially one like a tendon rupture. If Dobnak is healthy this season, he could be good insurance against a run of starting pitcher injuries.
  25. jmlease1
    I hope Sabato saved his signing bonus and invested it carefully.
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