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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I really hope it's not something significant with Royce. Considering how he looked when he felt something during that AB, I'm definitely worried. It would be a real shame for him to go down at the end of a breakout season, after fighting his way back from injury again, and possibly have to miss the playoffs. Maeda did very nicely and the bullpen finished it off. Thought Funderburke looked pretty good out there and he's an interesting case to be the second lefty in the bullpen. Just get healthy, stay healthy, guys. Division title is almost officially secured.
  2. jmlease1
    I just want the roster to be 15 position players and 11 pitchers. (I would consider 16 and 10 frankly, but that seems a bridge too far for a team that prefers to have 1-2 pitchers do nothing most of the time as insurance than have another bench bat) Stevenson seems like a reasonable choice as a 15th man, considering he provides defense and baserunning. I don't know about Ober; feels like he'd be the 4th starter who would then be the 11th pitcher since you only need 3 in the Wild Card. (Maeda has a history of being an impact reliever in the playoffs and would get used; would Ober?) I think there's still probably room for him (there's not much difference between carrying 7 relievers and carrying 8 in short series) but for the WC he's not the greatest fit.
  3. jmlease1
    I think they do want him back and would be happy to sign him to a 3-year deal...I just think he's going to get 4-5 year offers from someone, and the Twins won't want to go that long on a pitcher who's almost 34 already. Putting the QO on him makes perfect sense and will return value. I think the Twins have a better chance of retaining Maeda on a shorter term deal, and they might be interested in that to maintain rotation depth.
  4. jmlease1

    Royce Lewis: ROY?

    jmlease1 commented on Obie's blog entry in Blog Obie

    I don't think it's really east coast bias on Henderson: he's been a beast for the last 4 months (and while he started a little slower, it's not like he was terrible). Might be the best hitter on a team that could win a very difficult division, plays good defense...he's a very worthy pick. Lewis & Julien both deserve some votes, but I'd give it to Henderson. If Royce doesn't miss July and half of August with the oblique injury? He probably is right there. but Henderson did play during that time and was great.
  5. jmlease1
    well, arguably Yunior Severino could be seen as an international free agent, and Emmanuel Rodriguez was an international signing as well. But there hasn't been much in the way of pitching in a while. That said, as much of a crap shoot as the draft still is in baseball, international signings are even more variable, I think.
  6. jmlease1
    I don't miss hitters stepping out after every pitch to adjust 27 pieces of equipment, re-velcro their batting gloves, etc. I don't miss pitchers meditating on the mound for an eternity before throwing the ball I don't miss throwing over to 1B eleventy-billion times when anyone with a modicum of speed got to 1B
  7. jmlease1
    Excellent series win. Taking 3 of 4 on the road against a division rival is very good baseball, even if the ChiSox stink this year. Gray looked very good and it was nice to see him bounce back after an outing he wasn't happy with to shut things down. he's looking healthy and ready and will start either game 1 or game 2 of whatever playoff series we land in. He's done a great job keeping the ball in the park this season. After he next start, he'll have thrown more innings this year since he was 25. Twins have done a good job keeping him healthy and strong this season. Good work by Pagan and Jax, but hopefully we'll be able to get Jax some additional days off. He's been worked pretty hard this season. On to Cincy!
  8. jmlease1
    Another fine win for the Twins. More shoddy and sloppy defense from Chicago; how much is it them quitting on the season and already mentally being on the beach and how much of it is them being a sloppy and poor defensive team for quite a while now? This isn't a new issue for them, but it's certainly a reason to clean house over there. Royce Lewis! Huzzah for Royce Lewis. Such a fun player to watch, so glad he's healthy and showing what he can do. Loved seeing him hammer out another slam, but almost as happy to see him comfortably draw 3 free passes in a game. Pitchers are going to adjust to him; showing patience like this will make it harder on them. I wonder what happened with Kopech; really thought he was going to be a big part of making Chicago a team to be concerned about this season and he's been a mess. Varland looks good as a 2-inning guy; I can see him being a weapon in a playoff game where one of our starters guts through 5 tough innings and Varland comes in and bridges the game to the back of the bullpen. I still think he has a future as a starter (and I think the Twins do as well), but he adds real firepower to the bullpen right now and I'm glad to see him sliding into that role.
  9. jmlease1
    Except Julien does hit for power and can run (he was a fine basestealer in the minors). Julien's weaknesses are: hitting LHP (which was an issue for Arraez as well, but so far in a small sample, Julien has been brutal there) and defense (has looked shaky at times and has a poor arm, but has done better lately). Julien also has what...5 more seasons of team control? This is a guy who can be part of the core, especially if he starts figuring out how to hit lefties. I miss Arraez: good guy, great hitter for average, fun player and adds a lot to the team. But we needed stalwarts in the rotation, and we got that in Lopez, who is also awfully fun to watch, is a good dude, an excellent pitcher, and adds a lot to the team. I don't think either team has any real regrets. It'll be interesting to see if Miami signs Arraez to a long-term deal and what the terms are if they do; signing Lopez to a below rate extension really makes me feel good about the Twins business in this one. And who knows? Maybe one of the prospects will show out.
  10. jmlease1
    It's a good point. If the only way you'll deal with a team is if you're screwing them, then why would anyone deal with you? there are going to be cases where one team values a player differently than another team, but for the most part there's going to be fairly close valuations.
  11. jmlease1
    I'm sorry, but do you actually believe this? That the Twins front office didn't want Arraez's influence over other hitters? Or that the players have simply all taken it upon themselves to now go their own way and ignore input from the coaching staff, scouts, etc? because that's just silliness. The current FO is the same one that promoted him from A+ to AA, then to AAA, then to MLB. They moved him from AA to MLB in the same year, and then kept rolling with him. the idea that they traded him to keep his voice out of the room is ludicrous. They dealt Arraez not because they didn't like him, but because he had a lot of value at a position they had a lot of depth at. In order to get what they really needed (and boy did we still need pitching) we had to give up someone that was established and had real value. That's Arraez. the other option was Polanco, but Polanco's value was likely lower at the time because of the injury he'd had last season, the time he had missed, the contract he had, and being older. It was a good trade for the Twins, even if it meant giving up a player that everyone loved. That includes the front office: they loved him too. But Pablo Lopez has been very good for us and is lined up to lead the rotation for the next several year, which is something we didn't have: an established, all-star quality starter in his prime to lead the rotation.
  12. jmlease1
    Gallo and Wallner both have more raw power than Lewis for sure. But it's awfully nice to see Royce pound one like that. You can really see the talent that made the Twins grab him in the draft. So nice that he's finally getting to show it. Hope he stays healthy because the dude can play.
  13. jmlease1
    Very nice game. ChiSox do still have some talent in their lineup, so it's good to see the Twins handle them fairly easily. Wallner had been scuffling a bit, so it's good to see him getting some hits again. Julien's approach really doesn't change whether he's getting the balls to drop or not, and that's pretty advanced for a rookie. Royce Lewis made me nervous when he rolled the ankle; dude has had way too much injury bad luck, so I'm glad it didn't take him out of the lineup. Moved to the edge of my seat when he came up with the bases loaded. Would have loved to see the dinger there, but I love the fact that he calmly drew the run-scoring walk and didn't expand the zone and chase looking for glory. A good game for the Twins. I love beating Chicago. I thought they were being overrated going into the season (a lot of people picked them ahead of the Twins this year) and they stink. Let's beat up on a team that desperately needs the season to be over and shrink that magic number fast!
  14. jmlease1
    He's mostly played 2B/3B and while he's not great at either, he's also not a butcher. He's been playing some 1B for the Saints, and last played LF in 2022. He looks like a likely candidate to slide over to 1B but could still potentially play some OF, I guess? Right now he looks like he'll be starting the season next year in AAA and be the likely call up when the Twins need some innings at 1B. His ability as a switch hitter will definitely help him, as so far he's shown ability to hit from both sides of the plate with power. It's been a heck of a season for him and a really easy add to the 40-man.
  15. jmlease1
    Never? Matt Olson has a platoon split, but it's not all that extreme and he's a quality hitter against basically everyone. You don't see Rocco pinch-hitting for Correa based on matchups either (he gets subbed out to give him some time off, not to go find a platoon advantage). I love Ed Julien, and I think he's going to be a big part of the team's success now and in the future...but so far he's been really bad against LHP. Julien draws walks by the bushel, and has exactly zero so far against a LHP. That's a little concerning for a guy who draws one 1 out of 6 PAs. Yes, it's only 42 PAs so far, but zero walks and only 1 xbh and he hasn't looked good against lefties at all. The reality is TB has a great bullpen.
  16. jmlease1
    Laudner really wasn't a first-rate big league catcher. He was just a Twin for 9 years and part of the magical 1987 WS. His all-star appearance was driven by a small sample size hot first half in 1988, plus the fact that TK was picking the reserves and Kent Hrbek refused to go if he couldn't get voted in. (He immediately cratered at the plate for the second half of the season) For all that people have taken shots at Joe Mauer's lack of durability, Laudner never played 120 games in a season and never had 400 ABs. And frankly, he's been overrated defensively, which was supposedly his calling card. while WAR isn't the end-all be-all of stats, 3.2 bWAR/4.0 fWAR over 9 seasons of work is pretty close to replacement-level. Brian Harper, on the other hand...
  17. jmlease1
    Really nice win against a typically excellent and irritating to play TB squad. very impressed with how well Varland did in getting the team through the middle innings, and it was really great to see Duran showing good command and closing out the game. he didn't look stressed at all slinging it at 102! That's just amazing. Happy for Julien and Wallner to get off the schnide. Really appreciate how Julien has still taken his walks throughout this little hitting slump: a lot of young player would have expanded the strike zone looking for something to hit, but he stayed disciplined, kept getting on base and hit some balls hard tonight. that's a really good sign. Series win would be great!
  18. jmlease1
    This. I thought Larnach was out of options after this season, but if he has one remaining there's pretty much no reason for the Twins to move on from him unless they think he's suddenly going to be poison in the locker room in AAA. I expect Kepler to be back until he's actually gone. While Wallner appears to have passed Larnach on the depth chart, it's always possible that Larnach could beat him out in spring training, but he definitely provides good depth against any of the LH OF bats going down with an injury and would make it easier to go into the season with 4 primary OF (say, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, and Martin) and keep guys like Farmer and Polanco on the roster. There's actually not all that much depth pushing for jobs in the OF in the minors right now outside of Martin (who also can play in the infield) and Larnach (who has struggled mightily against breaking balls in MLB). Severino has little experience in the OF, so from a prospect perspective the next group are A-ball guys like Rosario and Rodriguez who haven't even tasted AA yet. (or walker jenkins, who hasn't left FL) There's real talent rising, but if you take Larnach out of the picture, lock Kirilloff in at 1B (and presume Gallo is gone) the Twins no longer have a huge reservoir of LH corner OFs ready to roll. Keep Larnach. Have him battle with Wallner for the job. Be ready when someone gets hurt. Worry about dealing anyone at midseason or after 2024.
  19. jmlease1
    He hasn't been particularly healthy this season but FanGraphs still pegs him at being worth $11.2M. (other metrics would rank him higher) There's decent odds he'll play more next season than this one, frankly, and while he hasn't been healthy the last 2 seasons...it's the same injury that dropped him from the end of last season and had him missing the time in the middle of this season. If he finishes this season without injury, has a healthy off-season he seems fairly likely to have a reasonably healthy season. And if someone like Farmer is moved, Polanco could slide into a role where the expectation is for him to play 125-140 games at multiple positions with plenty of rest to keep him on the field and producing.
  20. jmlease1
    I think picking up his option is a no-brainer. Whether he stays or not is a little tougher and there's a lot of moving parts. Is Buxton going to be capable of playing the field in 2024? how ready is Brooks Lee? How much faith does the team have in a bounce back from Miranda? how much can you count on Kirilloff at 1B? Is Farmer coming back? Are the Twins comfortable backing up SS with Lewis/Castro? How many ABs at 2B does the team need to find for Julien? I could easily see the opening day roster for position players (presuming health) being: Vazquez, Jeffers, Kirilloff, Polanco, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Farmer, Castro, Kepler, Buxton, Wallner, and Martin. (Larnach would be the odd-man out along with Gordon...if Gordon isn't gone before then) That would leave Lee, Miranda, and Severino as the 3 most likely chomping at the bit to get out of AAA as position players. but that's a bit thin for the OF? Moving Polanco give you room to hold on to a guy like Larnach (who is finishing his season strong in AAA) and might balance the roster a bit better. Plus, Polanco would bring back a good return: he's having a solid season and more importantly seems to be finishing strong. but a healthy Polanco is an all-star caliber player. Tough to give up. It's definitely the problem I want to have. I'd much rather try to sort out the best of many good options, as opposed to begging for someone, anyone, to step up and take a position.
  21. jmlease1
    I'll agree with you on the reliever. Especially when Alcala went down early you could see that there was going to be need for a RH reliever in this bullpen and while I generally agree with the FO's belief that you shouldn't be allocating significant resources to fungible relievers on a regular basis, there was a real need here that isn't fixed purely by moving more starters into relief roles. I was less enthusiastic about acquiring a RH bat; we should have enough gas to handle a LH starting pitcher with Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Jeffers, Farmer, Solano, and Lewis (even with Buxton going down again) plus Taylor and Castro. Frankly, I don't think there's room on the roster for a Garlick/Luplow type that's generally only of any use against LHP and the options that could have provided more would have meant either pushing one of the young guys back down and/or costing substantially more than I would be interested in paying for a rental/ancient one. (I mean, how much difference would Tommy Pham have made? has he actually been better than Luplow?) I would have thought that they could have gotten a serviceable reliever for an A-ball lottery ticket guy, not a significant prospect. But I could be wrong: I don't know what the asking prices really were, and it's possible in attempts to pry a higher quality prospect out of the Twins other teams poisoned the well (and then were unwilling to drop their own price for the team that stood up to them). Weird stuff happens.
  22. jmlease1
    It is going to be an interesting list after the off-season is completed. Balazovic and Headrick look like candidates to drop off. The system is deep enough that Mercedes could drop off too. Schobel might slide back a little, Keaschall looks like he's rising...and just how do you rank someone like Prielipp?
  23. jmlease1
    Any actual proof on this one? Because any time there's an accusation made about a member of the staff "not being allowed" to do their job because of those meddlesome kids in the front office, I'm calling BS without proof. The front office isn't filled with morons. We may not like their decision-making, their style, their process, or which tools they use and how they use them...but they're not actively or intentionally stupid. And hiring someone and then "not allowing" them to do their job is actively stupid. And it's not like Popkins was hired without their input.
  24. jmlease1
    To be fair to Bremer on the Kepler deep fly...Kepler clearly thought it was out off the bat and so did I. Dick's had more of these these year than usual, but the Twins have also had a LOT of towering flies that have died at the wall, on the track, and at the edge of the track this season. Lopez was really great, that was fun to watch. I'm really happy with his season, and he sure looks the part of a #1 starter. Bats just couldn't get it going. They did a good job grinding out some walks, but just couldn't find the hits.
  25. jmlease1
    Meh. It's not like we haven't noticed. It's the plantar fasciitis. Slow player gets slower, great hitter struggles at the plate. I expect he'll be fine next year. I really hope he gets nowhere near the record, because the last thing this franchise needs is another excuse for discontented fans to go after the highest paid player. (I despised the media-led attacks on Joe Mauer that fostered so much fan contempt) Correa, despite what is a debilitating injury for most people has still been able to play almost every day, and has provided quality defense and continuity at SS that we haven't seen in a really long time. The DPs on offense suck, but I still like Correa, like what he brings to this team, and look forward to getting another healthy season from him at SS next season (and hopefully a couple of big time player games in the post-season this year).
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